Alex

Dick just mentioned that Twins have turned more DP than they have hit into. Wonder if it has anything to do with the number of "opportunities."

I really don't care where he plays, but I hope he gets regular at bats for a bit.

This is the essence of value. My answer is likely a yes, assuming that you're getting a closer to ideal Mauer, who is catching more than he is now and hitting more like expected when his contract was signed. Hopefully, the difference in hitting production between a top hitting C and average C is > the difference in hitting production between a top hitting 1B and an average one. You don't need to hope a $5M-$10M player hits 30HR/100 RBI (if those are the only numbers that concern you) because the net gain overall should be better. A player like Willingham is an excellent example of this. He plays a corner outfield position, hit 4 fewer HR than Braun and had 14 fewer RBI on a much worse team. Willingham is getting $7M this year. Braun signed an extension that averages over $21M a year (which I think includes the bonus). Now, Braun did a lot of other things better, too, but I chose to use HR and RBI since those are the stats you quoted. I'm not saying I'd rather have Willingham than Braun, but you can see the difference is much smaller there than between a top hitting catcher last year, Napoli, and an average hitting catcher like Lucroy. So, if I took Willingham and Napoli and you took Braun and Lucroy, I think I come out ahead. I should note that by themselves HR and RBI just don't matter all that much to me. There are so many things a hitter can do besides hitting a HR that add value (or take it away) while RBI tend to be a lot about chance and the hitters ahead in the order.

@ shanewahl, I agree and I did mention it, but those are great points about the chain reaction in the roster. He obviously doesn't get the boos and vitriol because his contract is smaller and for whatever reason people think Mauer missing playtime last year was less legitimate than Morneau's. One other point: Vernon Wells contract did not paralyze the Angels...., though they could be looking at two horrid contracts...

@Jokin, Blaming decisions in free agency and direction of the team on Mauer's contract, or the uncertainty of his performance, is, frankly, absurd. Any front office that sets their goals for an entire season around one player would be labeled as idiotic. It's true that Mauer's contract is going to limit future FA and that how well Mauer would bounce back was/is questionable. However, he was one of many question marks and has been more positive than some. Here they are: 1. Morneau: Coming off multiple injuries, what form could he return to? So far, the answer has not been good. 2. Valencia: Could he regain 2010 form or even just be better than last year? So far, he's been worse, and hopefully he'll be back up and perform better sometime soon, but I doubt it. 3. The Entire Starting Pitching Staff: Nick Nelson again does a great job of breaking this down, but as he mentioned, they've all come up "tails." (http://www.twinsdaily.com/entry.php?41-Dangerous-Gambles-in-the-Rotation) If you want to argue that the Twins cut payroll due to all these question marks and didn't plan to win-it-all based on that I'd be fine with that, but hypothesizing that their lack of aggressiveness in FA was simply due to questions about Mauer is ridiculous, and lacks evidence. I'd further argue, though, that the Twins track record of FA shows that they have never been aggressive, especially with starting pitching. Maybe that will change, but I don't think it will under the current leadership, and I think it has less to do with Mauer that with the organizational philosophy.

Lol! 12 PA with runner on third and less than 2 outs. 8 RBI. That not exactly a percent as a runner could score from first or second, but it seems like a good ratio. Truth be told, I'm optimistic about Mauer and tend to think the frustration about him and his contract are misplaced in terms of who should be blamed if the Twins aren't getting value out of it. I'll admit, Nick Nelson's latest blog is a major fear.

Hehe and woba is even more fun!

I think this those kind of numbers tell the exact story: horrible starting pitching and a surprisingly good bullpen that essentially closes the door, though it's usually too late.

Watched on Gameday for a bit today and noted that the evergreens are still there....almost like ghosts...

This stuff can be checked: Mauer's triple slash with runners on third and less than 2 outs: .346/.417/.636, 8 RBIs With RISP in general: .379/.514/.552 14RBI (37 PA and only struck out twice and has hit into 0 GDP in these situations). Yeah, terrible..... You're dead on about the GDP, overall though. I think he's going to need to figure out a way to hit line drives if he wants to improve. Even with that, his line with a runner on 1st and less than two outs is .269/.424/.886 and 7 GDP in 33 PA. His worst hitting is with a runner on third and two outs: .200/.333/.200. This is also his smallest sample size of just 6 PA, so a couple of good at-bats here will have a positive affect. Just for good measure, with runners on his overall numbers are: .302/.456/.434 (.890 OPS) in 68 PA. Better than his stats with no one on. Like I said, these things can be checked.

I agree, and this was the point. It should be much easier to sign/develop even average hitters at these positions, but the Twins haven't done a good job of that. You shouldn't need to spend big money to get average players at these positions and they are still excellent hitters. The difference between them and spending a ton of money at those positions is of smaller gain than at a position like catcher. See below for average WOBA by position. There's far more net gain in spending big on a SS or C than there is in a LF, RF or 1B. [TABLE] Catcher[TD=width: 60].307[/TD] [TD=width: 100]First Base[/TD] [TD=width: 60].337[/TD] [TD=width: 100]Second Base[/TD] [TD=width: 60].307[/TD] [TD=width: 100]Third Base[/TD] [TD=width: 60].309[/TD] [TD=width: 100]Shortstop[/TD] [TD=width: 60].303[/TD] [TD=width: 100]Left Field[/TD] [TD=width: 60].320[/TD] [TD=width: 100]Center Field[/TD] [TD=width: 60].324[/TD] [TD=width: 100]Right Field[/TD] [TD=width: 60].334[/TD] [TD=width: 100]Designated Hitter[/TD] [TD=width: 60].337[/TD] [TD=width: 100]MLB Average[/TD] [TD=width: 60].316 [/TD] [/TABLE] Additionally, there are two further problems with your argument. One, we should have at least 1B filled with an excellent hitter, but that's easily a worse contract than the one discussed here. (Note: I'm not bashing Morneau, here, but the point seems obvious). The other problem is the simple premise that Mauer's not valuable in terms of positional scarcity due to the fact that he doesn't have players around him. As mentioned, that's up to the Twins, not Mauer. The fact that they have haven't been able to produce/draft/accquire another even average hitter at RF is an organizational issue. The fact that they cut $15 from their payroll is an organizational issue. You cannot blame Mauer's contract for their inability or unwillingness to produce other even average talent or spend some more money in FA. It just isn't true.

Yeah, I don't mind seeing Plouffe get more playing time to see what they have there, or even the two speedy outfielders. Parmelee's not being helped by being up here, especially sitting on the bench most days. I think that while Dozier's performed well and I hope it continues, I hope we're not saying the same thing about his as Parmelee a month or two down the road. I like Carroll, and I'm sure the pitchers like to have him back there, but he's entered this organization at a bad time. I'd also like to see them resting Mauer a bit more and letting Morneau stay on the DL a bit longer. Why put wear and tear on the vets, especially those two?

To be fair to Twins hitters, four (maybe 5) of them should be in AAA. This roster looks way too much like August's and we're only 35 games in, not to mention the pitching is even worse.

Setting aside the Mauer argument, It's just as true for real baseball. Having a good hitter and a "hitting-scarce" position allows more flexibility and allows that team to more easily fill other portions of their roster. As we saw this offseason, it's not as difficult to replace corner outfielders who can hit. With regard to almost every other fielding position, it is. In fact, of the players you mention above, only Parmelee doesn't play at a "positional scarcity." Essentially, the hope is that it's managed correctly that you can get more for your money throughout your entire team. You certainly can't get away with replacement level players (or worse) at those other positions, as you mention, but a team doesn't have to be equivalent to the Yankees or Cardinals to make use of a player like Mauer, the Twins certainly have proven that in the past.

Mauer does have a .400ish OBP, so he is getting on base for somebody.

Yeah, sadly he gave that up, along with three more so far. They're hitting him hard. Oh my. Look who is up in the pen....

I responded in the other thread, but I find it ironic that I was quoted when I don't find this comparison useful. Explanation in the other thread.

If Mauer's contract truly handcuffs the organization, then it's certainly an issue. However, if anyone should have considered the payroll would plummet, it should have been the organization. That element is their choice, at least for this season, and they could now be in a downward spiral as far as that is concerned: cut the payroll---> not as much talent ----> not as many wins ----> fans coming to games ----> cut the payroll. I'm still of the opinion that they aren't going to spend much of that $23M even if they could have it back.

Really? Where do you get this information, especially the second part? Beyond that, a couple of things. I appreciate that you went to the effort to use data to try and back up your initial claims. I should add that I don't think Mauer is performing at the value of his contract this season. There's a major flaw in the initial question, as hinted at by others: Hitting order is not a position and does not have much to do with player value. If we shift Mauer to the 8th or 9th spot, he's suddenly far more valuable by that logic. Additionally, many of the players you list are under team control, so including contracts of non-negotiated salaries is somewhat misleading. Admittedly, it would do little to help Mauer in this case anyway in this analysis. I don't think anyone would argue this is going to be a good contract. However, I think a lot of people think it's worse than it actually is because of the way people value certain stats over others. In fact, Nightengale's evaluation falls prey to exactly that, quoting only average and HR. Again, I'm not arguing here that Mauer is playing at the value of his contract, but I'm pointing out that what is examined is not always indicative of complete value. Here are a couple of other metrics: (Note these assume his current numbers stand for the entire season, which I think is actually a conservative estimate. They also assume he continues to play half his games at catcher. If he plays more C, these numbers increase. If not, they will likely decrease unless he ends up being a lights out defensive player at 1B). -WAR: Mauer's WAR is currently .9, according to http://www.baseball-reference.com. If he continues with the same numbers he'll end the season with a 4.5 WAR, not a great number, but one that puts him as borderline all-star. -WOBA: Again from Fangraphs, is .352. well above average. -Value: http://www.fangraphs.com/ gives player value in a monetary amount. A nice item to look at in exactly this kind of discussion. Mauer's value through the season so far is $3.7M. Multiply that out and you $18.5M. To be certain, these are not $23M numbers, nor are they even good for Joe. However, I was actually surprised by, relatively, how good they were. Sure, some will dismiss them for whatever reasons, but these are, imo, representative of his actual holistic current value without nitpicking and choosing specific individual numbers, and I'm actually expecting all of them to improve as the season goes on.

While I agree that his contract is going to be hard to fulfill, especially if he's playing catcher less, it's still nice to see him have a good couple of games, and he looks like he's hitting the ball much better. He's not a full time 1B, so that's not a completely fair comparison but I do understand the point. Comparing him to other #3 hitters, well, that's not very useful for several reasons, IMO. The other problem I have with your comment is that I'm not convinced the Twins would spend the money from Mauer's contract even if they were able to dissolve it. If it's keeping them from spending money, I completely understand the issue; however the money they chose to spend on his contract is an organizational error and not Mauer's.

Obviously a great game by Diamond. Dozier was key as well and is obviously the new exciting thing (and frankly is playing better than I expected). Mauer's game, though, I feel like went relatively unnoticed. He reached base four times with three walks and a double.

That walk puts Mauer's OBP over .400.

4th inning. Would much rather have let them hit. I think the Twins have put 5 plays on in this series with one out or less and I think just one has netted a run and the other three have led to outs that have helped the Toronto pitcher weasel out of the inning.

They are talking to the majority of fans, for whom power=HR. Anyone else thinking that Diamond might be hurting from that ball, just enough that that've can't quite get his pitches down.

There at far more logical reasons for those moves than favoritism. Marquis has not been good, and I never liked the pickup because he obviously wasn't the strike thrower they said he was. However, he's been much better than Liriano, and there's really no way around that. Frankie has almost a 10 ERA, and he's walking 6/9, twice as many as Marquis. Hughes was out of options and never really showed much at any level, though it would have been nice had they moved a pitcher instead. Valencia had options and has been terrible for over his last 600 AB. Lexi was hurt and I think they pretty much know what they have there. Plouffe has had some good at-bats (I think he has the highest OBP of the bunch) and has shown more promise than Hughes. He's also out of options and younger than any of those you mention, so I'd think this is a last look to see if he could be part of the future. He definitely needs to step it up, but I don't think any of this has to do with favorites.