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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. Well, the fact that Murphy isn't balding yet is certainly a good sign :-)
  2. Batter BABIP is also very much susceptible to regression. Great hitters can maintain a higher one than normal. Faster player may have an extra touch due to speed, but a .357 BABIP is unlikely to be maintained. 'For hitters, we use BABIP as a sanity test of sorts that tells us if their overall batting line is sustainable or not. Virtually no hitter is capable of producing a BABIP of .380 or higher on a regular basis and anything in the .230 range is also very atypical for a major league hitter. In other words, BABIP allows us to see if a hitter seems to be getting a boost from poor defense or good luck or getting docked for facing good defenses and having bad luck. A hitter has control over how often they put the ball in play and how hard they hit the ball, but due to the unpredictable nature of luck and defense, their BABIP may not be a perfect reflection of their performance to date and it is easier to observe this fluctuation when looking at BABIP compared to wOBA, OBP, or SLG for example.' http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/
  3. I don't think he ever stated he wanted the players the Twins traded for to bust, just that there are some Twins that go to other teams he wants to see do well.
  4. A Dave Cameron story was linked about this earlier. Here's one from Jeff Sullivan focusing on Hicks. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/three-keys-to-understanding-aaron-hicks/
  5. Like I said, I didn't see anything in your post that said one way or another in regards to that sentence I quoted. In any event, I appreciate the clarification
  6. Except your post didn't mention anything about one way or another being silly or disingenuous. 'I think it is a bit silly and perhaps disingenuous to attempt to criticize the deal at this point' It was specific to the attempt to criticize point of view. Are you saying it's equally silly and disingenuous to think this is a good trade too? Just looking for clarification.
  7. people have expressed their opinion like you said they should and some got this opinion of their opinion from you 'I think it is a bit silly and perhaps disingenuous to attempt to criticize the deal at this point.'
  8. There is no consensus on it whatsoever. There are some who believe that Hicks was starting to turn the corner and that, along with his defense, made some of us believe much better days are to come for him.
  9. Hicks had a BABIP of .285 with his .721 OPS. Ryan's .734 OPS was slightly higher and had a BABIP of .357.
  10. and rightfully so. The Fangraphs article makes a compelling case why this was a good trade for Cashman . Here is part of it. 'From the Twins perspective, they land a young catcher who also has shown signs of putting up decent offensive production at an up the middle position, but I’m a little more skeptical that he’ll retain his offensive value going forward. Murphy possesses less power than Hicks, but doesn’t offset that with better contact skills, nor has he shown the willingness to take pitches in order to draw walks to keep his on-base percentage up. His decent numbers in part-time play the last two years are BABIP-driven, and as a slow-footed catcher who doesn’t have a remarkable batted ball profile — his infield fly rate is actually higher than average — that shouldn’t be expected to last. So Murphy’s probably more of a below average hitter, with Steamer projecting him as an 85 wRC+ guy in 2016, and not a lot of offensive potential beyond that unless he finds some power he hasn’t yet shown. That’s good enough offense to play in the big leagues — Wilson Ramos has an 85 wRC+ over the last three seasons, for instance — but to be a quality performer, he’d have to be a very good defensive catcher; there’s not a ton of evidence that’s the case, though. Statcorner graded him out as exactly average at pitch framing, and while he throws out a good enough number of baserunners, he doesn’t appear to be anything special at blocking pitches in the dirt'
  11. That's exactly what I did in the first sentence. I said I hope he becomes a superstar. The second sentence said I thought the trade was bad. I am not responsible for people reading into two simple sentences.
  12. I said I hope Hicks becomes a superstar AND that it is a bad trade. I didn't say I hope the Twins end up on the bad side of this trade. You don't think I hope the catcher ends up good? That would help us, no? I wished the guy well, and I think it's a bad trade. People who want to read into what was said only have themselves to blame for misunderstanding and/or maybe they are just eager to get into it with other posters. I am not responsible for either.
  13. I also wished Hermann well, and in the thread about trading Plouffe, I said I hope he does well whether he stays with us or not. Nothing wrong with hoping guys succeed even if they leave the team. Or maybe there is for some.
  14. How about because I'm a fan of Hicks? How about because I value outfield defense on a team lacking OF defense. How about Hicks starting to work on his OBP? I'll take a .720 OPS from a 24 year old with quality defense on a team that lacks defense. Oh, and how about a person who always stresses not taking personal shots not take personal shots? Although clearly it's allowed when defending Ryan as seen on the Ryan Swan Song thread.
  15. Man I hope Hicks turns into a superstar. What a horrible trade this is.
  16. The decision to give Hardy away was a result of Gardy pushing it. Gardy wanted speed at the position. Before Hardy was even traded, Gardy said Casilla would compete for the starting shortstop job. True, Smith shouldn't have listened, but there is something to be said for a manager who will at least take into account his manager's wishes. Nishioka cost us very little, in baseball terms. The two decisions didn't really have to do with the other unless we connect Gardy wanting Casilla to play shortstop and us needing a 2B to replace Casilla.
  17. Hasn't Deron Johnson been the scouting director since like 2007?
  18. I agree the differences are huge. Not sure why anyone would compare the two. But one of the big differences pointed out in the original thread is that Nishioka was signed under Smith and the rights to Park were acquired by Ryan. What happens if this is a bust as well? Will Ryan receive all the vitrol Smith did/does for the Nishi signing (like saying he should have been fired for that very UNCOSTLY mistake) by the people who consistently defend Ryan (and part of the defense is by bringing up Smith all the time)? Ryan has made much more costly mistakes since he's been back. Anyway, here is hoping we sign him and he's not a bust.
  19. I hated it when the Twins drafted Plouffe and it took forever for him to make the show. It seemed like the only reason he did finally make it was because he was out of options and because he was a former 1st round pick (and even then it was between him and Luke Hughes). I think part of the problem was that the Twins didn't see the fact that shortstop wasn't going to work for him a long time ago. Since being moved to 3rd base he has worked very hard and has become a solid player offensively and defensively. Whether he stays here or not, I hope he continues to get better.
  20. Only for Minnesota would signing Nishioka be considered a high-profile move :-)
  21. I liked Torii for quite some time. I loved his catches and his energy. Even when he initially left, I defended him. I felt Ryan disrespected him by waiting too long to ever make him an offer (not until August before he became a FA) and that the offer (and subsequent offers) were too little based on the market. I liked how he and Santana (and to a lesser extent Nathan) came out and let everyone know what they thought of Ryan giving up on them at the deadline of '07. It wasn't until later in his career (not much later) that my opinion of Hunter changed. Obviously, I didn't think they should sign him for the past season(due to declining skills and overall player production) and am glad he has retired.
  22. Ryan already traded an established CF and leadoff guy for an Ace ;-)
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