jimmer
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Everything posted by jimmer
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ERA and ERA+ were two huge shots against Morris and those aren't exactly advanced stats. They are used even by the most stat-adverse fans. Ironically, it was a stat-head using a pretty advanced (and very AMBITIOUS) stat that now suggests he may have been HOF worthy. If it was just advanced metrics saying no during his ccandidacy, he likely would have made it years ago when voters pretty much ignored those.
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WHIP has been around a long time.
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BTW, Span just threw out a runner at 2B. He gunned the guy out, and the guys at MLB Network (led by the jack-wagon Harold Reynolds) gave some credit to Harper and absolutely no credit to Span. They originally said Span probably didn't even know the guy would be going, that he just routinely threw it in and just got a runner going who had no business tying to go. THEN after seeing the replay and noticing that Span actually geared up and rifled that thing in, they said it was probably Harper yelling to Span that the guy was going.
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In fairness, TB had already determined Davis was a reliever before KC ever got him. Just took KC 5 months to come to the same conclusion.
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yeah, I don't buy this even a little bit. This guy turns 26 before next season starts. We gave up a quality CF three off-seasons ago, with a nice contract, to get an touted ace potential guy and he still, at 25, isn't ready to even break into the rotation, and now isn't even starting in the minors. It is not, in any way,unreasonable to have expected this highly touted pitcher to be in the rotation already.
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I'm not advocating any such thing. Pointing out that the Span trade hasn't paid off one little bit yet. That's a shame considering all the hype surrounding Meyer when that great trade happened. At this point, it fails under the great thought process/horrible execution category of trades and I doubt that changes significantly.
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We passed on one of the Golden Spike finalists in 2004 six times before he was drafted by a team who drafted him with their first pick of that draft. BIG score for them.
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Yeah, in the same way I was hoping for Trea Turner over Gordon in 2014 draft.
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We are STILL waiting for the fruits of the Span trade to do SOMETHING for us. But I guess if Bert can call May and Gibson young pitchers, Meyer still is. Makes me sad we are still talking service time with a guy who would be 32 or so when he became a FA if he got promoted right now.
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We DO love our control pitchers.
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The Curious Case Of The Twins' Signing Of Mike Pelfrey
jimmer replied to Tom Schreier's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
it depends on what one looks at. If one looks at ERA he ranks 25th out of 103 qualified starters. So if ERA is your stat of choice, top 25%. -
Yeah, I wanted Fulmer at #6. Seems odd we'd take a guy with the 6th pick who were are HOPING can be converted to a starter.
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Fair enough, Dave. I'm done.
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It happens to every pitcher every year. I have yet to see a pitcher's ERA and FIP match at the end of the year. Is there a SP this year that doesn't have a gap at all between FIP and ERA? Is there a pitcher over his career that has a FIP-ERA match? There's always going to be a gap, and there should be due to the nature of the stats. It's not because a players jumps from team to team that causes the gap to close, it's due to more and more innings, unless we assume just because a guys defense is bad for one team it will be good on the other or vice-verus
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Jeff S is not unique in that regard. A gap will exist for every pitcher, if only because ERA is affected by team defense and official scorers, amongst other things.
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.20 isn't that big of a gap. .22 isn't that big of a gap which is what Jeff's is for his career. Also make me wonder why people are saying how he has so dramatically under-performed to his FIP. .22?
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Again, and I'm sorry to rehash this, but if you say a guy is under--performing because his ERA is higher than his FIP, then that assumes ERA is a better indicator of performance That's the crux of our discussion. Jeff S doesn't have 3000 IP as a starter. He has less than 750. When his career finishes, I wouldn't be surprised if his FIP and ERA where much closer.
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over a career, like Maddux, ERA and FIP get real close. One reason why is, over a career, a guys defense will be betetr some years and worse other. Jeff S has less than 800 innings as a starter. And I was using year to year FIP, not a career FIP versus career ERA.
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clearly that seem to be the common belief.
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I was using year to year info, not career FIP versus career ERA in my discussion.
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I'm sorry it doesn't make sense to you. It doesn't make sense to me to say that a stat that is dependent on many things outside of a pitcher's control is a better indicator of his performance than a stat that isn't.
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it's being used as a comparative term in this case. Anyway...
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'FIP is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator (not predictor) of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic that would be highly dependent on the quality of defense played behind him, for example. Certain pitchers have shown an ability to consistently post lower ERAs than their FIP suggests, but overall FIP captures most pitchers’ true performance quite well.' http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/
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you believe ERA is more of a real world performance indicator for a pitcher than FIP?
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He has under-performed only if you think ERA or ERA+ is the best performance indicator of a pitchers talent year to year, which I don't.
