Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jimmer

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,027

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    32

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    And Porcello. ERA of 4.65, FIP of 4.60. The worst of all the 200 or more IP. 46th in WAR out of 58 qualified MLB starters.
  2. jimmer
    Do they play with the same defense behind them? :-) I enjoy debating you, BTW, you are respectful at all times even when you disagree and are truly open to many trains of thought.
  3. jimmer
    But again, that belief assumes ERA is the true indicator of performance, right? We get phrases like 'pitchers out-perform' or pitcher 'under-perform' their FIP. ERA is too dependent on things out of the pitcher's control to be the indicator of performance.
  4. jimmer
    It doesn't assume an infallibility in FIP at all, it assumes FIP tells a BETTER story about how a pitcher pitched than ERA or RAA does. Not a PERFECT story, just a better story. DRS and UZR aren't infallible either, but they are better than errors and fielding %. WAR isn't perfect either, but I like it better than, say, looking at BA, HR, RBI, Stolen bases and errors/fielding % stats. I'm not going to hold on to old stats until the mythical PERFECT stats replace them. Now, what I have noticed is that for a lot of starters with long careers, the FIP and ERA stats come very close to each other. That's why I don't mind looking at, say, ERA (well, really ERA+) when comparing pitchers who have finished their career. That and because it keeps the FIP haters at bay :-)
  5. jimmer
    because bWAR is a runs allowed driven metric for pitchers, which takes into account many things outside the pitchers control. Anyway, have a good one.
  6. jimmer
    You are right, it is simple. As far as what the majority of baseball fans think about anything, much less FIP, I dont buy that whatever the majority thinks is what is correct. Anyway, we are just talking, not sure why you are getting worked up. I'll move on.
  7. jimmer
    I am exactly opposite. I much prefer the FIP based WAR (which is fWAR) then bWAR cause I dont think we should take into account the defense behind the pitcher.
  8. jimmer
    well, Ervin Santana didnt get 'a bunch' of CY votes. Out of 30 voters, he got three 5th place votes (giving him a whopping. 3 points in CY voting). At least one of the votes was by a Minnesota writer. What happens when you compare him to Liriano's 2010 and Hughes' 2014 when looking at Ks, BB,K/9 ratio, FIP. All thosethings happened too. Those are all results of what the pitcher did (including FIP). FIP gives us a better indicator of what a pitcher did than, say, a runs allowed based model because runs allowed is affected by many things out of the pitchers control. Not only is it a better indictor for future pitcher performance than ERA, its a better teller of how well the pitcher did too. And not just those, how did Santana' babip, which was about 90 points lower than Lirianos '10 and Hughes' '14, play into his numbers? You want to give Ervin credit for the defense he had behind him this year,awesome; however,I like to give credit to pitchers for what they do. Santans fWAR was 2.9, Hughes was 5.9 and Lirianos was 5.7.
  9. jimmer
    The value I was referring to was in regards to trade value. If you don't think we should trade him, then that's fine. We just disagree on that.
  10. jimmer
    Ervin's year wasn't spectacular. Our standards are just low. It wasnt even as good as it was in 2016. Yes he finished 7th in CY voting. He got 3 points cause 3 voters gave him a 5th place finish (5th place vote gets one point) At least one of the voters was a Minnesota writer. I imagine one of the other two was the Minnesota writer. And Ervin's year was not arguably better than any Twin starter since Johan left. Phil Hughes had a much, MUCH, better season in 2014 and wasnt helped by having a real low .248 babip like Ervin was. Hughes' babip in 2014 was over .320. Sure, Hughes' season was a major outlier for him and he was never going to repeat it, but it DID happen. And,as someone else mentioned, Lirano in 2010. Both much better than Ervins 2017. I like Ervin and he's a fine low 2, high 3 pitcher. There is value there, but its hard to imagine his decline stopping. I've been recommending trade since trade deadline 2016. His value only drops as he gets older and his years of control at a great price gets shorter.
  11. jimmer
    Someone on here wrote if Morris isn't in, Santana shouldn't get in either. I imagine that's why JLease brought Morris into the conversation. One doesn't even have to look at WAR to slam Morris' credentials. Santana's ERA+136, Morris' ERA+ 105. Santana has two CYs (deserving three for sure, arguably four)Morris has zero (deserving zero) Morris never led the league in ERA, ERA+, or K/9 and averaged less than 6 K/9 while averaging more than 3 BB/9.
  12. jimmer
    What's a bit funny is that because the writers completely screwed the pooch during the 2005 CY Young voting, then can say he only won two CYs. I Imagine three might have gotten him in.
  13. jimmer
    Yeah, a little less than 3% of his PAs this year (and his career) And, of course, part of that is that he makes so much contact, so when players are on base in front of him, it can happen. Makes a player like him more susceptible. Probably be better if he struck out more, but the complaints would shift to that instead. BTW, recently, an AL MVP led the league in GiDP.
  14. jimmer
    Instead of being thankful for Mauer's contract soon coming off the books, which hasn't hindered us in any way except maybe stopping us from signing two or three more mediocre pitchers (because no way would they have signed one great player in FA with that money), I am thankful for him having a very good season in regards to OBP and especially defense (and I'm sure the rest of the IFs, as well as the pitchers, feel the same way about his defense.)
  15. jimmer
    Well, the ball moves quicker for sure, but all hops are true and predictable. Then there's the fact that an infielder can get the ball over to 1B, even if it's not in the air, by skipping it off the turf.
  16. jimmer
    very trim? Yeah, about 5 years ago. He doesn't look trim now.
  17. jimmer
    Buxton, the CF in the 2017 All Statcast team. We didn't even have Sprint Speed or Outs Above Average last year, and Buxton's speed was such that he still made the 2016 version of this team. He's the only repeat player this year, because our new tools have put his skills into much clearer focus. His 30.2 feet-per-second Sprint Speed is tops in the big leagues, just ahead of Billy Hamilton. His +24 OAA mark is also the best, well ahead of Ender Inciarte's +19. And in August, he broke his own home-to-home record by circling the bases in just 13.85 seconds, a new mark. It says here that won't be his last. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/261886728/judge-and-buxton-lead-2017-all-statcast-team/?topicId=27118122
  18. jimmer
    for an inhouse, hometown player they drafted and developed and that they know everything about.
  19. jimmer
    Couldn't agree more.
  20. jimmer
    Well, Gardy believed he was the best fielder on the team at every position, so maybe you have something there :-)
  21. jimmer
    Or maybe we learned that he needed to get the experience under his belt 2015, 2016 (you know, it being his first two year managing at ANY level), which helped prepare him for 2017. Imagine if we didn't give a player MVP or CY Young because of how they performed the year before.
  22. jimmer
    Not only that, but 23 X 3= 69. Mauer's salary was more like 1/4 of the Twins payroll. And yeah, Mauer wasn't worth 23M this year, but he was worth around 18M and I'm sure every IF and pitcher was happy to have his defense at 1B.
  23. jimmer
    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/modern-era-hall-of-fame-ballot-tommy-john-jack-morris-luis-tiant/
  24. jimmer
    Been saying it for awhile: Molitor will win AL MOY. BAM!!!!! Well deserved!!!!
  25. jimmer
    Buxton also won the Fielding Bible award for top CF in baseball.
×
×
  • Create New...