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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    I don't think Nick brought that up as a season-long thing, but more in comparison to Chief's comment about last night's lineup. The Twins were missing their 1st, 5th, 6th, 10th, 12th, and 14th ranked hitters by WAR last night. If you look at just the second half, it's 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, and 10th, so essentially 44% of their lineup and their top backup. The Yankees were missing their 6th, 11th, 13th, 18th, 46th, and 50th ranked hitters (Ellsbury hasn't played the entire year, but also hasn't posted a 2+ WAR season since 2014--let's not pretend he's a huge loss). For just the second half, it was their 3rd, 6th, and 15th (Stanton, Andujar, and Bird have not played in the second half). If you're arguing that the Yankees have had more injury issues than the Twins for the year, I'll agree with you, but not if you're talking about currently. Finally, if anyone expects the Twins to be able to match the Yankees for depth, particularly when the Twins are just at the beginning of an unexpected competitive window, you're setting yourself up to be disappointed.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    Incorrect, the absolute minimum possible would be to do exactly nothing. Instead, they acquired two relievers who have helped push a bullpen to be 3rd in WAR, 10th in ERA, 4th in FIP, and 9th in xFIP, while being second best in bb rate and 11th in k rate. Prior to trade deadline they were 6th, 14th, 10th, 11th, 6th, and 10th. In other words, almost across the board improvement. Also, it's worth noting that Lamont Wade and Ryan LaMarre aren't the backup plan; they're the backup backup plan. Neither would be getting any kind of regular playing time if not for injuries to 2 of 3 starters and the next two options (Buxton and Kepler, Cave and Gonzalez). Furthermore, it is just ridiculous to think a team should be able to roster multiple 2-3 WAR players in the minors. Finally, if you look at Wade's stats, you'll see that despite a .562 OPS, he actually has 0 WAR. Dig deeper, and you'll notice that he has a 29% bb rate compared to a 7% k rate--his OPS is being dragged down by an impossibly unsustainable BABIP of .133, particularly considering he only makes 13% soft contact. If Wade had a completely normal BABIP of .300, based on 15 PA's where put the ball in play, he'd have 4.5 hits; round that up to 5, and he's now slashing .294/.556/.294/.850. Even if it was 4 hits, the line would be .235/.519/.235/.754 (not for nothing, but Eddie Rosario's OPS for the year is now .783).
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    I wasn't suggesting it for Garver, I was giving an example of of where 90% of the production but in 133% of the PA's is a positive thing.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    I agree with this. I think I would rather have a .900 OPS player for 600 PA's than a 1.000 OPS player for 450 PA's. Also, to Mike's point, there is absolutely zero reason with Castro and Astudillo on the roster that Garver shouldn't be pinch-hitting every game he's not starting.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    Eddie Rosario after last night now has a 99 wRC+, and is only worth 0.9 WAR, due to being the 10th worst defensive outfielder in the game. His OBP is under .300, and his supposed strength (big moments) is also eroding, as he's down to a 103 wRC+ in high leverage. He hasn't had a monthly OPS above .800 since June (and even that was .810). Either Eddie is hurt, or he needs to be dropped to 8th or 9th in the order now.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    Game 5 has an off day on either side. All other games come in bunches of 2 or 3, but as Brock said, Taylor Rogers will not be needed to pitch 19 times in the postseason.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    Miguel Sano's walk rate this year is 12.4%, compared to his career MLB walk rate of 12.0%.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    Because not all back-to-back appearances are the same. If Rogers only has 1 day off before his back-to-back, that's probably different than having 3-5 days of rest before the back-to-back, which should be the case going into the ALDS.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Cole and the Shuttle. However--if the price of paying Cole is that you can't keep Berrios/Buxton, the scales start slipping back.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    By WAR, over the last 3 years, there are only 18 pitchers better than Berrios. Scherzer--potentially available, but at a King's ransom deGrom--potentially available, but at a King's ransom Sale--probably don't want him Verlander--not available Cole--available at about $35M a year Corbin--potentially available, but at a King's ransom Kluber--not available/probably don't want him Strasburg--could be available, if so, at about $30M a year Nola--not available Greinke--not available Carrasco--potentially available, but at a King's ransom Bauer--not available/probably don't want him Morton--potentially available, but at a King's ransom Severino--probably don't want him Kershaw--not available Paxton--probably don't want him Marquez--not available Lynn--probably don't want him There's obviously the caveat that any player is available for the right price, but the players above I listed as not available would take a deal starting at Graterol + Lewis/Kiriloff (if not both) to get. There is almost no way the Twins get two of these guys (or others that might be more desirable now and for the future): one will be hard enough. It's also worth mentioning that over the last 3 years Odorizzi is 50th in WAR--if you restrict that to the last 2 years (only his Twins years), he's at 22nd. I think 1 year at ~$18M or 3 at ~$45M is a very reasonable price to pay for a guy who has upped his k rate while dropping his bb rate, all while increasing velocity and getting more swinging strikes.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    I didn't say anyone has suggested it. I highlighted the fact that the Twins are unlikely to improve their rotation through expenditure (whether capital or prospect). Even if they do, it will be only 1-2 spots, and not a wholesale rebuilding of the rotation. That leaves only a couple of options; Use largely the same rotation they had this year by picking up options/extending QO's/agreeing to new deals with their current starters Put the burden on the members of the Rochester shuttle to man 2-3 spots in the rotation throughout the entire year Dumpster dive and hope you can affect improvement in underperforming playersOf these 3 options, option 1 seems like the best balance between risk and reward--it has the lowest ceiling, but the highest floor. All that being said, how would you propose fixing the rotation?
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    While this is technically true, I don't think anyone is ok with next year's rotation being Berrios, Perez, Smeltzer, Thorpe, and Dobnak. I'm certainly ok with the members of the Rochester shuttle collectively being our 5th starter, but if they're asked to be more than that, or Perez is asked to be more than the 4th starter, we should all be very upset with ownership.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Top 125 money will not get you a proven top of the rotation pitcher in free agency--it will take top 12 money to do that.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    I mean, I'd like for the Twins to sign Cole, Keuchel, and Ryu, then make the Nationals a godfather offer for Scherzer, but I'd put the over/under on number of those pitchers in a Twins uniform next year at 0.5, and still pound the under. The fixes to this rotation are in all likelihood going to come in the same way Cleveland built their rotation--through consistent incremental improvement driven by development of minor league talent and the odd shrewd trade for undervalued assets.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    It's actually not that bad, when you think about it. Berrios is a given, but I think Perez is likely to have his option picked up--$7.5M feels totally reasonable for a pitcher with 1.7 WAR this year (57th in baseball amongst pitchers with 130+ IP; he's also 55th in FIP and 52nd in xFIP), so long as he's your 4th/5th starter. Extend the QO on Pineda (if you can, I'm not sure if he's eligible) or Odorizzi, and you're left with only 2 spots, one of which will be filled by Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak/Poppen. Is it a great rotation? No--but you're not getting to great until either Graterol/Ober/Balazovic are succeeding in the Majors, or Jim Pohald opens the pocketbook. Because of that, I have a sneaking suspicion Falvine doubles down on the lineup and looks for under the radar rotation moves, counting on trading for pieces in July, or prospect emergence to round the staff into playoff form.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Aaron Judge this year has 6 homers in 178 PA's at Yankee Stadium, and 11 in 163 PA's on the road. This is a flip from his career splits, but it's not quite so cut and dry to attribute all of Judge's power to the Bronx.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    Twins bullpen in August, with MLB ranks; 9 k/9 (15th), 2.2 bb/9 (1st), 0.95 HR/9 (3rd), .332 BABIP (26th), 35.5% GB rate (28th), 4.02 ERA (8th), 3.36 FIP (2nd), 4.16 xFIP (7th), 1.7 WAR (2nd). Perhaps Falvine knew what they were doing at the deadline.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    As I understand it, that is incorrect. When predicting playoff odds, the data is input, and then simulations are run. Based on the numbers I gave above, if 1,000 simulations are run, the Twins made the playoffs in 974 of those simulations (883, 336, 149, and 73 for the other rounds, compared to 824, 524, 216, 91, and 44). As to whether Cleveland is more likely to advance given the same position as the Twins, that is slightly true based on reaching the division series (38.1% to LCS, 16.9% to WS, 8.3% win WS for Twins, 41.2%, 17.4%, 8.4% for Cleveland), but flips back to the Twins favor for reaching both subsequent series.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    According to Fangraphs, the Twins have a better chance than the Indians to make the playoffs (97.8 to 81.5), make the ALDS (89.1 to 51.8), make the ALCS (36.4 to 20.7), make the World Series (15.0 to 9.1), and win the World Series (7.2 to 4.6).
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    The difference between May and Duffey being options 2A and 2B, and May and Duffey being options 4A and 4B is absolutely massive.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    Dude, we can debate multiple definitions at the same time. I've stated, explicitly and multiple times, that based solely on on-field production (which is the current criteria), Trout is the MVP, it's not close, and it should be unanimous. If the MVP is restricted to the current year (which it should be), but pay is included (which it also should be), Trout is much less valuable, due to the fact that each point of WAR costs $4.2M (Kepler is $1.7M, Acuna is $196k, Bellinger is $88k). Those 3 players cost less than half of Trout this year, but have combined for almost twice the WAR. Here's an example for you; say you are told you can have one bowl of ice cream, and you get a choice between two bowls. One has 3 scoops, and costs $5, while the other costs $2 for 2 scoops. If all you care about is maximizing your ice cream, you'll get the 3 scoop bowl. However, if you get the 2 scoop bowl, you can use your extra 3 dollars to buy a brownie, some hot fudge, whipped cream, and a cherry. The latter option clearly has more value, which should perhaps be taken into account when conferring an award that has the word Valuable right in it.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    If the MVP vote is based solely on current year production, Mike Trout is the clear and only choice. If he doesn't win it unanimously, people should have their voting privileges taken away. If it's based on current year value, which would include salary, arguments can be made Trout shouldn't be in the top 5. To illustrate this, think about if the Twins had signed Berrios to a 6 year, $150M deal before the season started, but Berrios had the exact same season. He's clearly less valuable in that scenario than in one where he's not extended, despite identical production. If we're talking organizational value, Trout shouldn't even be on the ballot. Anthony Rendon has put up 5.2 WAR this year so far (8th among hitters). However, since he cost $18M this year, and is a free agent after this year, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and Victor Robles all have far more value. Think of it this way; who do you think would require more in prospect capital to acquire; Mike Trout or Ronald Acuna? If the answer is Acuna, that would seem to make it pretty obvious that Acuna is more valuable.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    Other than much of what determines a player's value to his organization comes from his salary, age, and future seasons. If you throw those things out, the Twins should clearly trade Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol, Larnach, Sano, Garver, and Berrios for Trout. After all, by MLB WAR, Trout is better than all 7 of those players this year combined.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    That's why I answered twice. If my name is Jeff Bezos, and I just bought a team with the sole goal of winning a world series, no matter the cost, Trout. In literally any other scenario, Acuna is a vastly superior option. Also, while I'm sure voters don't take contracts into account for MVP consideration, they probably should. Bellinger on a rookie contract is massively more valuable than Trout on his contract. In fact, if a metric that divided WAR by salary existed, Trout is probably not one of the 25 most valuable players ion the league by that measure--he might not even be top 50.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    In a vacuum? There is no player I wouldn't trade straight up for Trout. In the real world? I'd rather have Acuna. Acuna will cost the Braves a maximum of $123M for the next 9 years--a time period in which he will probably post more WAR than Trout who will have cost a minimum of $329M. What do you think you might be able to do with an average of $22.9M every year for the next 9 years?
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