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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    I expressly stated I didn't include any counting stats--it's literally in the first line of my post. You can't use counting stats to compare two different players with different amounts of playing time; if you could, it would mean Jake Cave is a far superior hitter than Giancarlo Stanton, since Cave had 8 homers, 21 XBH, and 28 RBI compared to Stanton's 3, 6, and 13. Your absolute refusal to see what Eddie Rosario is (a decent player who excels in traditional batting counting stats, but is sub-par in everything else) is mystifying to me. If Eddie does not have a bounce back year in 2020, he may very well not be a Twin in 2021.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    Convincingly and thoroughly argued.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    Front Offices tend not to give indications players are available--it weakens their bargaining position. The fact he hasn't been extended is a sign that either Rosario wants too much money, or the FO does not have interest in extending him. I don't necessarily think Eddie will be non-tendered, but the idea it can't possible happen is just silly. If there is not a drastic turnaround in Eddie's performance this year, he's far closer to being non-tendered than extended, and if the Twins really like what Larnach/Kiriloff/Rooker/Lewis are doing over at CHS this year, they may just decide to save the money and move forward.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    Below are the 2019 stats for 2 Twins players; I excluded counting stats as those are a function of playing time, and one player had only about 40% of the PA's as the other. Based on the below, tell me which player you would prefer. Player A: .258/.351/.455/.806. .343 wOBA, 113 wRC+, 52.3% hard hit, 5.5% soft hit, 31.7% chase rate, 29.5 UZR/150 in LF Player B: .276/.300/.500/.800. .329 wOBA, 103 wRC+, 39% hard hit, 15.4% soft hit, 46.3% chase rate, -7.5 UZR/150 in LF As it turns out, Player A is Jake Cave, in his age 26 season (meaning this year is his peak season) compared to Eddie in his age 27 season (supposedly his peak, although it was worse than either of his two previous seasons in a year that was a much better offensive year across the league). I think Jake Cave, who posted 0.9 WAR in only 228 PA's, already more than fills the shoes of Rosario, who posted 1.2 WAR in 590 PA's. Other than hit homeruns and accumulate RBI's (both of which are functions of playing time), what did Eddie do better than Cave in 2019? Put it another way; would you rather pay $8M to $10M for a little more power, but overall worse offensive production and much worse defense, or $500k for slightly less power, but overall better offense and much better defense PLUS 2-3 more years of team control?
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    30 homers is still a significant number, but far less so than it used to be. 53 players hit 30 homers last year; in 2009 it was 30, in 1999 it was 42. Just look at 2014-2015 for comparison--less than 20 players hit 30+ homers in each of those years. RBI is also an extremely flawed stat--for his career, Mauer had 2,107 PA's with RISP across 1,314 games--that means Mauer had 26.5% of his total PA's with RISP, in 70.7% of his games, and created 765 RBI, or an RBI to RISP PA ratio of .363 Eddie on those same metrics has had 668 PA's with RISP across 444 games, and produced 239 RBI. So 25.7% of Eddie's PA's have come with RISP, in 69.4% of his games, but his RBI to RISP PA ratio is only .358.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm reasonably certain Cruz is the team leader; I'm also reasonably certain Cruz didn't come up through the minors with Eddie. I will also miss Eddie if he goes--I've followed him since he battled Miguel for the Appy League homer crown way back in 2010 or 2011. I'm sure he'd be missed in the clubhouse as well, he does seem to be well liked. But guys who are well liked leave clubhouses every year, it's part of the game. And Eddie's on-field production can probably be largely, if not entirely replaced at only 10-20% of the cost. For a team that needs to figure out how to pay Berrios and Buxton, as well as give significant raises in the next year or two to Garver and Arraez, Eddie is just not a luxury the Twins can afford.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    My guess is that if a team is struggling to find 5 competent starters, they'd also struggle to find 2-4 MORE guys who can throw 2-4 innings every 5 days. The Twins probably have the most rotation depth of any MLB team, or at least top 3.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    If the Twins are going with 10 "starters", that implies they'll carry 17-18 pitchers to start the season, which is interesting.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    So, Eddie is far better than the outfield prospects, yet those prospects are much better trade chips? The only way that's true is if a bunch of other teams are not just not as smart as Falvine, but are actually way dumber. If Eddie can turn it around, display even a modicum of patience, and stay relatively healthy, then I support keeping him. Otherwise, I'd rather use his $8-$10M a year on an extension for Berrios, or keeping Odorizzi.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    Eddie played a total of 14 games, for 98 innings, in a position other than left field; let's not pretend he's a poor man's Marwin all of the sudden. The throw in Fenway was great, but if we're going to start picking individual plays, you have to mention all the times he chased pitches and made outs in key situations as well. If he was playing on a sprained ankle, then that would explain his reduced mobility on defense, but it would not explain his complete lack of plate discipline. Further, if that injury was so debilitating, it would have been better for him to sit--after all, in the second half of last season, Eddie was 106th out of 140 players in OPS at .750, which is only .007 ahead of Pujols, and behind players like Kevin Newman and Anthony Santander. His wRC+ in the second half was 89, which means he was 11% WORSE than the average player. Not for nothing, but Jake Cave had a .964 OPS in the second half and a 150 wRC+, while playing more innings in right and center than Eddie; if those trends continue, it's Eddie that can't hold Cave's jockstrap, not the other way around.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    Sure, but only after several rounds of ultimately fruitless negotiations with the players where neither side is willing to budge.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    So for almost 42 years, we disliked Griffith's widely known comments, but didn't care enough to downplay his history with the team; quite the opposite, it was ensured his history with the team was preserved (or so it seemed). If this statue truly makes black people uncomfortable, my question would be if it has always made them uncomfortable, or is that just happening now. If the former, I would then ask if the Twins were told that, and chose not to act, or if it was just not brought up. If the latter, I would ask why there are now uncomfortable feelings when none existed before. Applying the current cultural lens to the past is a very good way to support the erasing of the past, which is well on the way to repeating the past.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    From the context, it appears he called Carew a fool for accepting a $150k salary, implying that he thought Carew should have looked for more money--I'm not sure why that's so terrible. If I'm missing something or misunderstanding the context, I reserve the right to change my take.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    Does this include statues of George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, both of whom owned slaves? Should one of our states, and our nation's capitol city, be renamed? Should the Declaration of Independence be removed from display?
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    As a student of history, I don't think removing history is ever a good idea. I'm not super familiar with Calvin Griffith, so I don't know if this speech in 1978 was a bad day, or par for the course for him. I do think it's interesting to realize that these comments probably didn't just come to light a couple of weeks ago--that means for years we could recognize the wrongness of what he said, but judge him as a whole, not for a moment in time; we seem to have lost that capability of discernment as a society in the last 4 weeks.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Prior to the draft, yes, I'm sure they had talked with a number of players, including these 4, about expectations around signing. That being said, with so little margin for error, it doesn't take a whole lot for everything to blow up. If both Sabato and Soularie all of the sudden decide they want slot, or they'll go back to school, the Twins probably can't sign Raya or Rosario. If the demands for either Raya or Rosario go up as well, could be a problem. I believe the front office did it's homework, and I have no reason to believe they won't be able to sign all 4, but it's far from a guarantee, and I won't feel confident about all 4 signing until they all actually do.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    As long as Sano continues to make hard contact, he will be fine. The Prince Fielder comp is only a problem for the Twins if they give Sano a Price Fielder contract.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm intrigued by this idea, but I would tweak a couple of things; I wouldn't put Berrios and Hill back-to-back during the regular season. A piggyback game should yield 7-8 innings from your "starters"; allowing each "starter" to face 18 batters means they could give up a WHIP of 1.5 and still cover 8 innings. Therefore, the bullpen should be needed less on days with piggybacks, so why not space out the rest for the pen? It's also possible the Twins could go to a six-man rotation, and still have two piggybacks, or alternatively, use Dobnak/Thorpe/Smeltzer to be "finishers". I would define that as letting them pitch 2-3 innings to finish out a game the Twins are winning comfortably. Finally, the Twins could also give each pitcher an "IL stint" at various points in the season, where they let them skip a start in order to stay super fresh. The upshot is that the Twins will have myriad options to manage the health and productivity of their pitching, which is something I'm not sure any other team can realistically say at this point.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    I used to work for Delta, and worked a couple of charter flights. The team is on a coach bus with their equipment and luggage underneath, that rolls right onto the tarmac--no one goes through security (at least not at the airport). I was also speaking exclusively about MLB; whether or not an MiLB season can happen due to a desire to avoid air travel has no bearing on whether or not the MLB season can happen.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    Your point is exactly the point I'm making; the more teams in the playoffs, the greater the odds of a lesser team advancing, and that includes if the number of teams in the playoffs is 2. If the goal of the playoffs is to crown the "best" team, having any more than 1 team reduces the chance the "best" team wins, and is therefore counterproductive to the point of the playoffs. Logically, it follows that the point of the playoffs (at least from a competition standpoint) is NOT to crown the "best" team, but rather to provide a reduced ecosystem of only the top tier of teams in order to provide a way to adjust for injuries and uneven schedules that might otherwise obscure the identification of the "best" team. As such, expanding the playoffs is completely fine, as long as it doesn't include everyone, which the current proposals do not. You also wouldn't need to shorten the regular season or extend the playoffs into November--simply play 3 game series in the first round, 5 in the second, and 7 for the LCS and WS. That's a maximum of 22 games to win the title, compared to 20 right now.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    But neither of them can be on first base without their spot in the lineup having first come up in that half inning. You cannot run the bases without first having your lineup spot hit--as such, baserunning is dependent on, and therefore a subset of, hitting. There is not other baseball activity a player needs to perform in order to pitch, field, or hit; that's why those are the only 3 aspects.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    If the negative part of the playoffs is that it can potentially prevent the "best" team from winning, due to unpredictable hot/cold streaks, shouldn't we just do away with the playoffs all together, and award the trophy to whomever has the best record after the last day of the season?
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    This seems to suggest to me that when you were 10, the internet essentially didn't exist. Does this mean we will never see you post again, in pursuance of your "frozen-at-10" agenda?
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    All MLB teams exclusively fly charters, where the only people on the plane are members of the organization (and the flight crews). This seems like a fairly low-risk proposition; simply require the flight crew to wear masks and remain in designated areas whenever not actively performing necessary duties--with the airlines hurting for revenue, I'm sure they will be more than happy to implement almost any requirement MLB can come up with, assuming it doesn't impact safety or contradict FAA regulations.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    Baserunning is completely dependent on hitting, as it can only be performed by someone who has come up to hit in the current half-inning, or was subbed in for someone who came up to hit in the current half-inning; therefore I categorize it under the hitting aspect.
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