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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    He has a career .819 OPS, which this year would put him at 69th in all of baseball. In other words, the 3rd best hitter on a team. If that's crap, you have an insanely unrealistic expectation of Sano.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    Baseball Reference apparently has a broader definition of high leverage, as they show 15 PA's, against 7 on fangraphs.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    Fangraphs. https://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=12164&position=3B/DH&season=2019
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    Joe Mauer career in high leverage situations--.834 OPS, .360 wOBA, 115 wRC+, 34.6% hard hit rate, 14.5% soft hit rate. In other words, for their careers, Joe Mauer is Matt Olson, and Miguel Sano is Mike Trout.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    This year. Career is 1.043 OPS, .428 wOBA, 172 wRC+, 45.7% hard hit rate, 8.7% soft hit rate.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    Yes, that was the general point I was making. Glad we're on the same page.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    Sano in high leverage situations--1.262 OPS, .503 wOBA, 222 wRC+, 66.7% hard hit rate, 0.0% soft hit rate.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    Yes.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Did you miss the selection of stats in my repsonse to your post? If you don't think Sano is contributing, and needs to go to the minors, than judging by OPS, so do Kepler, Castro, Cron, Buxton, Rosario, Schoop, and Gonzalez, as they ALL have a lower OPS than Sano. Your dislike of Sano is clearly not based in any amount of rationality.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    That's your fault.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    Yeah, you're definitely right. We have no use whatsoever for a 26 year old with a .922 OPS, .377 wOBA, and 137 wRC+. Definition of organizational filler.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    Agreed he has a valuable skill, that is clearly elite. However, that skill does him no good if he can't ever figure out how to harness it in productive ways. Like a sprinter with world class speed who can't stop false starting; if Willians can't figure out how to force above average major league pitching to come into the zone, his legacy will be that of an intriguing statistical anomaly that ultimately provided little value.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Someone who puts the ball in play to the shortstop with a runner on first and only one out is in all likelihood twice as bad as someone who strikes out in the same situation.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    Willians hitting is certainly great, and fun to follow, but I'd be much more interested in if his approach is different. Is he doing a better job at laying off pitches outside the zone? His ability to make contact is not in question, but his ability to refrain from making contact against slop is.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    So with these numbers, it's an 8.2% chance for a DP, which means its slightly more likely of an occurrence than a walk (8.1%). Which suggests Chief feels Twins hitters should not take pitches, as it's a statistically insignificant chance that they would be able to work a walk.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Cruz in High Leverage Situations--.984 OPS, .423 wOBA, 168 wRC+, 28.6% hard hit rate, 28.6% soft hit rate. Sano in High Leverage Situations--1.262 OPS, .503 wOBA, 222 wRC+, 66.7% hard hit rate, 0.0% soft hit rate. You were saying about not trusting Sano in high leverage?
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    No, the planes do all the flying. Just ask Boeing.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    You assume the other out wouldn't have been a one foot ground ball the catcher grabbed, stepped on home, and then fired to third. Or lifted to the outfield, where the outfielder gunned down the tagging runner at home by 10 feet. Both those outs would have been much much worse than the strikeout.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    Second option, might be an even better one.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    Like this one?
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    I really wish Marwin had struck out there.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    Put up a crooked number here--let's chase Kikuchi early.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Strikeouts are good for pitchers, and bad for hitters, but its by degrees. A hitter is going to make outs at least 60% of the time. While balls in play can move runners up, or get them in, they can also erase lead runners via double plays or baserunning gaffes. A strikeout is always one out, unless the ball gets away from the catcher, and a runner tries to advance. So in the sense that a certain number of outs are guaranteed, the upside of balls in play is at least somewhat cancelled by the downside of balls in play, whereas strikeouts are neutral.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    Sano has almost 1700 career PA. Austin has less than 500 career PA. That's 3 times the sample that puts Sano at a HR rate that would place him 100th all time if he had 3,000 PA's. It would also put him at 14th among active players. Given his HR rate is accelerating (1 every 13.2 PA this year), that seems likely to hold up.
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