Twodogs

Big difference is; the Marlins flip everyone, without blinking. Then tend to not have a very strong fan base and cant afford to hold on to anyone, as they ended up flipping Cabrera himself.

No way Mauer hits 20 homeruns and hits .325. I could see .325 and 7 homeruns or .290 and 20 homeruns. It would be nice but I just dont see it. Here's to hoping though

This doesnt look too bad for a starting lineup SS Santana .300 hitter 2B Dozier .250 hitter some pop 1B Mauer .300 hitter LF/RF Arcia 20 Hrs LF/RF Hunter .280 hitter some pop DH Vargas Unknown but lots of power 3B Plouffe .250 hitter with some pop C Suzuki .270 hitter CF Hicks/Schaffer/Buxton (July) Rosario (July) Not much of anything out of this group Rotation Hughes Nolasco Santana Gibson Milone/May/Meyers Bullpen Perkins Fein Meyers Pelfrey Theilbar Stauffer Duenseng May/Milone, if Milone goes to BP then I'd gues Duenseng is gone Bench Schaffer Escobar Pinto Nunez

Are we really worried about what his autograph looks like? If he hits .275 with 30 Hr's every year I wouldn't care if he used a stamp.

Two years ago coming out of ST it seemed like Hicks had good power but once people figured him out he had trouble making contact. Seemed like that first year he actually put balls out of the park and was hitting solid line drives, (when he hit the ball), last year it didn't look like he could hit the ball out of the infield. Looking at him pulling away from the pitch in that video of his swing he looks really confused. Hopefully he can figure it out and put some wood on the ball. I don't think anyone would question his fielding as much if he hit around .250 with some doubles power and an occasional Hr. It is pretty much all about his hitting and it seems as though he has been reluctant to accept coaching, at least from the Gardy regime, but Bruno was part of that regime also. So I hope he comes through and grows out of his funk, but I'm not holding my breath. I hope he is desperate enough to go and seek out help to better his hitting, but that would mean that he has matured and that is really probably the main question with Hicks. Maturity.

Aaron Hicks (AAA All Star)?? Escobar (International All Star)?? Pelfrey (Andersen Field Slow Pitch Softball All Star)??? Ha ha

On the Flip side Mauer is going up against the likes of Abreu CHW, Cabrera Det, V Mart Det, Hosmer KC, Pujols Angels, Teixeira NYY, Fielder Tex. Those are just the big names, there are a few others that out produced Mauer big time last year too.

In 1987 the had 3 guys in the 30's and one with 28, I'd say that's pretty bashy as far as home runs go in the 1980's During the 80's there were 10 different seasons, both American League and National League where the league leader was in the 30's, so out of 20 possible league leader seasons 10 of them were in the 30's. One year Tony Armas lead the American League with 22. My point was that if you looked at the Twins they were somewhat of an anomolie as far as haveing a pretty power loaded lineup. Basically this whole diatribe that I wrote was stating that sometimes doing exactly what everyone else is doing isn't necessarily going to get you to the top. It seems to me that when everyone barks up the same tree only one dog can get to the top. Now if you can find another way, a different tree lets say, that no other dogs are barking up, (I suggested defense and speed as a different approach, like the St. Louis Cardinals of the 1980's who were very successful by employing these methods, of course they were managed by Whitey Herzog who was a pretty good manager, hopefully Paul Molitor does as well as he did), Then that might be a way to sneak up on the rest of the league a little quicker than trying to do exactly what everyone else is doing only with out as much money to spend as say the Dodgers or Yankees etc... A lot has been said about trade chips, I wonder what Meyer and May are worth? Pretty obvious that Nolasco and Pelfrey are worthless as trade chips. Most likely Milone isn't worth much either

Danny Santana.

Well it can be any worse than watching Kubel stumble around out there. It's not going to be the "Soul Patrol," (Hunter, Lawton, and J.Jones) but it shouldnt be a lot worse than last year. But defense is important. Back in the early 2000's people couldnt figure out how the twins were winning games they had a bunch of nobodys but they played tough defense.

Wow, you pretty much think Nolasco is done? I think he has a decent track record going into last year, he has always done a pretty good job of not walking a lot of people and has been able to whiff a few people here and there. I hope Nolasco bounces back and gives an effort close to his norms. If he doesn't I think the Twins will be in for a long season. I like your post because you make a good point, but I hope Nolasco bounces back.

Milone right now is the only pitcher with any sort of ok track record. He has almost a .600 winning percentage going into this year, lifetime. Pelfrey has a shaky track record. No he is not that hard throwing strikeout king that everyone wants, but the Twins have Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana who should do better in the bat missing catagory than their predesesors have over the last 15 years or so with the exception of Johan and Liriano. If Gibson can return to form and strike out some guys then the Twins dont really need another strike out guy. They need a guy who can go out there and give them innings so as to reduce the stress on their bullpen which Milone can do and has done well over the years. Milone is not a dynamic pitcher who needs to find himself so if he is ineffective they will be able to determine that within about 4 starts and typically Milone is a better first half pitcher rather than second half pitcher over his career, that is probably an effect of he needs less time to get his mechanics worked out since he is not a strike out guy he is a lefty that pitches to contact and has done pretty well the last 3 years. He was bad for a month for the Twins last year, but May also had a 7.88 era and a 1.77 whip so I really don't see the improvement here either. I think that they should start with Milone and give him a chance and if he doesnt do well then if May is doing well bring him up. If May isn't doing well bring up Meyers.

I can see Arcia doing well. Gibson had some really really dominating starts last year, but he didn't seem to have those average ones. He seemed to be either really on or really off. That worries me a little bit, if he has a few really off starts to begin the season that could spiral him down. Kind of like Nolasco last year, started so bad and never recovered. Hopefully Gibson avoids the Sophomore slump and does really well.

I see what you guys are saying, and I also have been feeling that way, I've been very excited to see all of the SP signings. It was just a couple of days ago when I started to think about baseball trends, it always seems that there are a few teams out there that lead a new trend in baseball, ie OBP (Oakland 2000's) Speed (St. Louis early 80's) Power (Twins late 80's) and then everyone else follows suit. Now I was looking at offense over the last few years and see the huge dip in offensive numbers overall in baseball which means pitching overall is going to rebound which means an average pitcher should be ok if the offensive numbers keep going in the southerly direction. I also see that SB's are somewhat of an overated statistic, but you cant tell me that when Ricky Henderson was on first that the pitcher didn't have a lot more on his mind than how he was going to pitch the next hitter, it put pressure on the pitcher and the defense to contain him. Last, the Twins have spent a lot of money to improve the rotation because in house options are not there, but how much have they spent? How much have they really improved? Hughes met way higher than expectations, but what was Hughes average year before last year? Was last year an abnormality? How much money have they spent on Pelfrey over the last 3 years? How many wins has it netted them? How much money did they spend on Nolasco? How did that turn out for them? Now they have spent a lot of money on Santana and is he really any better than just an average MLB pitcher? again I would love to see Nolasco Hughes and Santana make the All Star team, but most likely they wont. So how much better do they make the Twins? Yes the Twins do not have enough pitching coming out of their system to be competitive right now, but that is why I suggested that they focus their drafts from now on, on pitching, provide those pitchers 5 - 6 years from now with speed and defense and high OBP. St. Louis proved you don't need a lot of power to win and win a lot. Ask Paul Molitor who's team lost to St. Louis that was focused on speed and defense with starters like Jim Kaat, not exactly a Nolan Ryan type, but pretty damn good pitcher in his own right. I hope the current Twins work out, I hope Vargas, and Arcia hit 30 Hrs and knock in 100 rbi's each. I hope Nolasco returns to form from the last 6-7 years and I hope Hughes does not. I hope Santana can win 15 games and put up a 3.50 era to go with Gibson and Milone or whoever else takes that 5th spot and I hope the Twins can win 90 and contend for the Central divison. I'm just looking also at what could be done differently that I don't think many teams are attempting right now.

This is going to be a long diatribe about what, in my opionion is the best way to re-build (in this day and age of Major League Baseball). So what I have observed so far is that the Twins are trying to buy a rotation and develop young power hitting position players to go with the pitchers that they are trying to buy. ie Sano, Arcia, Vargas, etc... Pitchers that they have bought are Hughes, Nolasco, Santana, and to a lesser extent Pelfrey. Now I also have had my mouth water when I hear about all of these pitching signings and think wow this is the first time in Twins history that they have thrown good money at pitching. All those years in the early to late 2000's that's all most of us feel that they needed to do to push them over the top. Instead we got guys like Rick Reed, Joe Mays, Scott Baker, etc... you name them they were all the same if their name was not Santana. But, in today's Major League Baseball, is this the right thing to do?? Over the last couple of years there have been so many pitching injuries that you usually don't know who's coming and who's going. In fact I kind of feel that may have been part of Nolasco's problem last year, he was probably somewhat injured and tried to pitch through it and it did not work for him too well. So it is pretty well established that starting pitching no matter how good they are is a real crap shoot with all of the arm problems these days, Unless you get Clayton Kershaw you are gambling big time, Hughes, even though he is a man's man and pitched like a stud last year was still just another gamble, it just worked out, we hit 21 with him and busted with a 22 with Nolasco. So my first question is; is throwing a bunch of money at pitchers now a days the best thing to do?? Remember, these guys are the biggest gamble that a baseball team can take. Plus it is a costly gamble that may not net any results for many years, look at Pelfrey for example. Next, the Twins are trying to develop big bruising power hitters, such as Arcia, Sano, Vargas, Pinto, etc... and the overall power numbers in Major League Baseball are way way down, way down over the last 3 - 4 years or so. Batting averages are way down. Plus the Twins don't play in Texas or Boston or anywhere else where the ball flys out very easily. They play in spacious Target field where 350 foot shots get caught, but in Boston those would be big flies, bombs, dingers, but not at Target field. I mean I really hope these guys work out, I loved watching Gaetti, Hrbek, Puckett, Brunansky, Chilli Davis, Baylor, hit tons of dingers in the 80's and early 90's. I also loved watching Morneau, Hunter, Cuddyer, Mauer, and guys like that mash the ball in the early 2000's too. All in the Metrodome however. But I'm more worried that I am going to see a bunch of .240 hitters hitting 15 bombs a year while we think that they will eventually develop, which they probably will, once they move to Cincinatti or Boston or someplace like that, that is my fear. So far my points in short are the Twins are throwing a bunch of money at thing with no guarantee, Starting Pitching. While they sit around and try to develop things that usually are a little more stable such as hitting, speed, defense, things like that. Now I know I just bashed hitting, but usually if you have a good hitter, Mike Trout, Adrian Beltre, etc... they usually do well hitting, they have slumps, they have ups and downs, but if over time a guy proves that he can hit or run, they usually do so for awhile. It seems less likely that once a guy proves that he has trouble hitting that they can turn it around, for example Aaron Hicks, he has proven over a couple of years that he struggles hitting, it's very highly unlikely that he will be an All Star someday because of his hitting, granted there are cases such as Gomez, but usually they don't turn around like that. So as I sit here I try to put myself in Billy Beane's chair and if I were to re-build the Twins how would I go about it Money Ball wise?? You know, my own little money ball, they wont make movies about it, it's just what I think might work, in my own head. Why spend so much money on things that have no guarantee??? Why not spend money on things that have some guarantee?? The type of team, in my opionion that would be extreemly successful for a long period of time during this new deadball era would be a carbon copy of the early 80's St. Louis Cardinals. Speed and Defense. St. Louis beat the Milwaukee Brewers in 1981 WS and St. Louis only hit 67 dingers for the entire season. But they had things that did not slump. Speed, defense. Outfield, Coleman, McGee, L. Smith, infiled. Ozzie Smith, Herr, Hernandez, Pendalton. Right now, with so many teams looking to develop hitting Catchers and not defensive ones, a team like that would run roughshod over the league, remember back then it was almost acceptable to have a poor hitting catcher if he could keep guys like Coleman, Henderson, Raines at first base. Today, not so much. So my opinon would be to spend money on guys that can get on base at a high clip, similar to Beane's Money ball. But not slow guys, guys that can put pressure on the defense by running. Why not spend a little money on a couple of postition players that have proven themselves over the years. Then spend each draft and draft pitching and more pitching, and more pitching. Pick up some rule 5 guys that can pitch and so on. Then bring these guys up when they are ready, and once they are ready for a big contract trade them, let em go and bring up the next guys because pitchers are more likely to get hurt anyway, might as well keep the young arms coming. Occasionally you will find one of those diamonds like a Pedro Martinez or a Kershaw and you keep that guy, but everyone else is gone once their time is up. Build a team around young strong arms and reliable position players with speed. I mean as bad as the hitting was across baseball last year, most guys should be able to pitch reasonably well. Realistically the first team to do something different wins the race for a few years untill everyone else catches up. Most things are trends, I feel that the Twins right now are building their team based on the last trend that happened not trying to figure out what could be next? Last question, I loved Phil Hughes season last year, but the Twins had him locked up pretty cheap for the next few years, why spend a bunch more money on him? Now it is as if they cant afford a good CF? Tear away at this if you must, just what I've been thinking that might make the Twins a dynasty instead of a one year wonder or worse yet, always getting to the dinner table last.

I dont know, but over the last 3 years looks like he's been pretty good at Angels stadium, pretty good at Kauffman stadium, lights out at Marlins part and Miller park, dang good at Progressive and the Ballpark in Arlington and really tough at US Cellular. He's been average at Camden, Comerica, Minute Maid, and Safeco. He's been bad at Tropican and the Rogers Center, also bad at ATT and Chase. Horrible at Coors, Fenway, PNC and Target. I think Target Field plays towards pitchers, I think he will be fine if given the shot.

Seems like everyone is writing him off and or comparing him to other crappy pitchers and whatnot. The thing that I challenge everyone to look at first and formost is that for a 4 year period Milone has a .581 winning percentage. When someone points to anyone else on the Twins current staff or anyone else in the minors with a .581 winning percentage over a 4 year period then I'll write him off too. I get that he doesn't have Ace stuff and there is no one that has been more frustrated over the last 10 years or so with the exception of Johan the Twins always had these pitch to contact guys like Rick Reed and they were very frustrating for a long period of time. But the whole staff was like that, now if the Twins mix in one or two guys like that in and around Hughes, Santana, and or Nolasco and such then I'm fine with it. I look forward to Milone pitching 180 innings and going 12 - 10 as the Twins 4th or 5th starter. Now if only the 1, 2, and 3 can live up to what they should do.

I see what you are saying, but the original poster makes a lot of sense when they mention the Marlins and the Cardnials and all of the talent that they already have playing in the bigs. Part of that is often the Twins philosophy of keeping their young guys down to develop, whereas at least the Marlins didn't have much chioce but to bring the guys up and see if they can produce. It seems that the Twins will continue to bring on guys like Schaffer, and guys like that that seems to impede the prospects road to the big club. I think that the Twins are ready to shed all or most of the dead weight and they need to start considering bringing up the young guys to see if they can produce. I remember they held Morneau down for an extra year or so, because they had scrappy Doug Mienkiewich in the way. Who by the way pushed out David Ortiz who I think hit another 35 homers this year while Dougie is coaching A ball. In JR's defense, I feel that the scenario that I just described was a Tom Kelly and Ron Gardinhire ordeal and not really the fault of Ryan's. TK thought that Ortiz swung like a slowpitch softball player, and Dougie was the epitome of Gardy's battling his tail off. So when I see guys like Lirano doing a servicable job in Pittsburgh, not to mention Worley doing a better job in Pittsburgh than Pelfrey, or Swarzak or a slough of other rag arms that the Twins have drug out there on the hill, It occurs to me that Ryan had those guys in Minnesota and they were completely failing under the daily guidance of Gardy and Anderson. Not to metion guys like Gomez, Hardy, bla, bla, bla, bla, it goes on and on. It seems to me that Gardy was not getting the best out of the limited talent that he had; because by all accounts most of those guys are doing better now that they are on other teams than when they were with the Twins. So maybe a new manager will get more out of the talent that is presented. If the talent isn't there then it becomes JR's fault. JMO

When it comes to moving prospects for major league talent that is all fine and well unless we get Tommy Herr'd and they leave as soon as they can. So Im all for moving pieces for sure things, but then again, nothing is a sure thing out there you need some luck. As far as emulating the Royals, I'd rather not wait another 30 years for a playoff appearance.

I would love to see Paul Molitor as the next Twins manager. I think that he could find someone in the baseball world that would be a good pitching coach. Stienbach is a good candidate also, but I have been hoping for Molitor so that he can bring back some agressive play on the field.