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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    The problem wasn't just hits but that everything that was hit was being hit hard. Only one XBH today is an encouraging sign. The 5 HR in his first 18 or so innings was a little worrying.
  2. 2wins87
    Also Adalberto Mejia, who's yet to find his command this year. Actually at the beginning of the season the discussion was about the logjam of AAA quality pitching, with Gonsalves and Littell being sent to AA. There have been some underperformances with Mejia and Enns especially. Their rotation is fine for AAA, it's just a question of how well they'll perform in the majors if called upon.
  3. 2wins87
    Nice to see there's not too much rust for Kirilloff. A good season could really establish him as a leader of the next wave of youth with Lewis.
  4. 2wins87
    Kiley McDaniel has a bunch of notes on prep prospects projected in the first few rounds: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-many-scouting-notes-on-prep-draft-prospects/ If you are interested in pitchers it sounds like Mason Denaburg could be a buy low candidate around where the Twins pick due to a minor injury, though he could also re-establish himself in the top 10. Cole Winn could be on the Twins radar and Gunnar Hogland is a helium name to keep an eye on (and his bat could also attract some teams).
  5. 2wins87
    I think in a few years, with more research into the subject, we'll find it weird how plate discipline was separated out as a different thing from other tools. My impression, given the split second decision making involved, is that it is very much like other tools, in that it can be improved through training and practice, but is not something that can just be taught. And we will find that there are certain players that are just gifted with better natural ability in this area, whether through genetics or development in their younger days. Also, my impression of Wade is that he has enough power that he could be a decently well rounded hitter, though certainly not a slugger by any stretch.
  6. 2wins87
    Mayo himself said the system had possibly the most upside outside of the top 100 prospects in his writeup. That's a pretty nice data point. I doubt Callis and Mayo really put any stock in their prospect points system, it's just a quick way to put a number value on systems. They'd probably tell you to pay more attention to their scouting grades. The Twins have nice depth with their 55/50 graded guys. The system is comfortably in the top half of farm systems. I think most national publications would agree with this, though most also probably wouldn't put them in the top 10 at this point. This is all sort of arbitrary anyway. The MLB team is already young and there's still a nice group of guys close to the majors ready to replace some of the veterans. Their lower levels have a couple guys with very high upside. Their competitive window is opening and the farm system looks set up well to extend it for the foreseeable future. Beyond 4 or 5 years into the future their success will be more determined by the contract obligations they make in the majors anyway.
  7. 2wins87
    Also, the system is not among the top 10 in the league due to the lack of very highly ranked guys outside of Lewis, but Mayo has a pretty positive view of the depth and upside in his overview:
  8. 2wins87
    The K rate by itself was pretty good though, especially if you view him as a slugger. I think prospect guys like Callis, Mayo, and Sickels (who also had him pretty high) will generally tend to look at a low walk rate as a more fixable issue than a pure inability to make contact consistently. You still have to do some projection and say that the game power will develop as he matures, but I get why national evaluators still like him. I'd still have him lower also due to his lack of positional value, but I think that explains some of the scouting vs performance gap in his case.
  9. 2wins87
    The new MLB top 30 for the Twins is out: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=min No real outlier opinions on anyone, but good little tidbits on everyone as usual.
  10. 2wins87
    I think Lewis might get some time in CF as they try to work everyone into the lineup, but I hope they keep developing him at short. I do think he ends up in Ft Meyers by midseason at latest. Baddoo is probably a corner OF long-term.
  11. 2wins87
    If Lewis moves off of short he's better in the outfield with his speed. A lot of scouts see him as a CF, though that position may be occupied at the MLB level for a while. I could see switching Lewis and Javier around too.
  12. 2wins87
    I guess you're right. I just remembered his projected batting line being lower than those for Garver and Wade. But Steamer actually doesn't project his defense or baserunning to be all that great, which seems wrong, probably just because it's conservative on those for guys without much MLB data. If you adjust them upward a bit, which seems reasonable, his projection actually looks pretty good.
  13. 2wins87
    There's an argument to be made that sticking with position players with the #1 pick is almost always a better strategy overall. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen this up in their chat yesterday, pitching prospects that are ranked similarly in national rankings bring back less future value (in terms of WAR) on average. This is basically just because of the high rate of injury for pitchers. They got a guy with a lot of potential value in Lewis, and with probably a lower level of risk than Greene, Gore, and Wright. And they were able to get some high upside guys with their next few picks. If there were a Strasburg in the draft and they picked Lewis over him it would have been a mistake. But given that none of those guys was a Strasburg type, I doubt that this draft will look like that much of a mistake in the future, regardless of how much the other guys succeed.
  14. 2wins87
    Continuing Fangraphs prospect week they are out with their top 100 KATOH projection list. All the caveats of scouting the stat line apply (though their system is much more sophisticated than the average internet commenter). If you aren't familiar with the system just think of it as comparing current prospects to former prospects at similar levels, ages, and approximate statistical profile, and then looking at the range of outcomes and coming out with an average expected WAR over their first 6 years in the majors. Twins rankings: Granite - 6 (10.4 WAR) Lewis - 23 (7.6 WAR) Garver - 32 (6.7 WAR) Wade - 40 (5.7 WAR) Gonsalves 66 (4.7 WAR) Littell 96 (4.1 WAR) It's interesting how bullish it is on Granite still, especially since he's accrued enough time in the upper minors and MLB level to be projected by other MLB systems, and none of them are particularly bullish on him for next year. I was also surprised to see Lewis so high, since there is a huge range of outcomes for guys at the lower levels. Clearly his strong performance along with aggressive promotions puts him in the company of some very good former prospects.
  15. 2wins87
    The ranking of Garver has actually been the most baffling thing to me this year. He was old for his level last year, and every other year. Now he destroyed AAA - where I would say age to league no longer means much of anything - but the argument is now that he's too old. I used to think he was ranked too high, mostly because of his age and questions about defense. I've been encouraged by reports of his defense solidifying, but now he's kind of an afterthought. I get why national rankers more or less ignore guys that are 26 or 27. But it's not that strange for a catcher to be fairly old before making an impact at the MLB level. About a quarter of the dozenish catchers to put up 2+ WAR last season didn't get a regular job until they were at least 27 (Austin Barnes, Robinson Chirinos, and Manny Piña specifically). There's no reason to think that Garver's not still a prospect and doesn't have time to make an impact.
  16. 2wins87
    Gonsalves and Romero both in the HM section, which are prospects which also received 50 FV grades but didn't make the list
  17. 2wins87
    Maybe he means defensively? IDK The best part of having prospects on these lists is that we get an early look at their new write-ups. Their take on Gordon's defense is probably among the most bullish I've seen, pegging him as a slightly above average defender overall, which would actually be pretty valuable at short. They do say that his range is the limiting factor, but it kind of sounds like they still view him as a shortstop.
  18. 2wins87
    Would I rather have Darvish or two inferior pitchers while losing an additional asset off of waivers for no return and delaying the development of several younger, cheaper pitchers likely to be better than Lynn and Cobb in a couple years while they continue to take up roster and payroll space? Why is this a question?
  19. 2wins87
    Interesting list, looks like it might be the outlier this year. After Lewis, I don't think there's any clear order, but I do think Gordon, Gonsalves, and Romero are in their own tier based on proximity, floor, etc, so it's a little surprising to see them so mixed up. I like lists with diverging opinions on certain guys, but there's a lot of volatility in this one. If I'm judging list accuracy, I like to use WAR total over a player's arbitration and pre-arbitration years. It takes a long time to be able to judge, and there are always misses on guys where there is a consensus as a prospect, but I feel like this one will probably be significantly wrong just based on the volatility of the guys near the top of the list. As a side note, I have a feeling that everyone is missing on Garver, who could probably rack up 10+ WAR at catcher over the next 6 years just by being decent. Developing major league catchers is hard, I'm not sure why Garver hasn't gotten more attention given how close he is, I have a feeling he'll end up being more valuable than at least 3 or 4 of the consensus top 10 guys.
  20. 2wins87
    Severino was a C+ guy when he rated the Braves organization. I guess he just missed him in the update.
  21. 2wins87
    Rowson appears to be a very good hire based on the overall performance of the offense last year. Adrianza was very good for being picked off waivers. It's early to grade the draft last year but I liked the way they used their big pool to get a number of impact players. And actually their best move was probably driving a hard bargain on Dozier and ultimately retaining him rather than trading him below value just because he looked like their best trade chip. They haven't been perfect, but they seem competent, and I'm still withholding most of my judgement until we see how they build the team for this year and beyond.
  22. 2wins87
    I can't really defend the pick but saying "live fastball" is understating it a bit. He's hit 100 MPH, which, while getting more common, is still rare. I think Burdi may have hit 100 too, though I'm not positive about that, he's close at any rate. I'm guessing that they gambled that no one would take him right after his Tommy John. As for Bard, Kinley's definitely got more velocity but he's been wild as hell. I like the overall package of Bard better, but the front office apparently thinks they can refine his control or something. Like everyone else, I'm not a fan of the move. I would have preferred that they fill another 40-man spot with one of their own rather than picking up a guy who's extremely unlikely to stick around for the season.
  23. 2wins87
    I always think of Chris Young as a comp for Aaron Slegers, both being 6'10" and throwing in the low 90's. (Young has been in the mid to high 80's for most of his career, but did throw in the low 90's his first few years.) I looked up Young's chart from this year and he's much more over the top, coming in from almost straight on but from an even higher point than Slegers and the others. Chart Young is interesting because he had a knack for exceeding his fielding independent metrics year-in and year-out, which mostly seems to be due to his ability to generate tons of pop-ups. He induced tons of flyballs in general but had a low HR/FB ratio since most of those flyballs weren't squared up. Slegers doesn't have the same crazy FB/GB split. His minor league track record does indicate that he can generate an above average pop-up rate though. His higher groundball rate likely comes from the fact that he throws a sinker about as often as his 4-seamer. Anyway, that's my base case for how a guy with back of the rotation stuff can be a bit more than a back of the rotation starter. Young has had a long and reasonably successful career. As a side note, if Slegers doesn't pan out it could be interesting to see if the 6'8" Tyler Wells follows a similar but more successful path. Right now he's just about all whiffs and pop-ups in single A, though his stuff doesn't get rave reviews either.
  24. 2wins87
    I think people might be reading too much into Garver's usage in September. If the Twins weren't in the playoff hunt, he might have gotten more time behind the plate. The front office did essentially clear the way for him by declining Giminez's arbitration. Obviously they still like Castro's defense and pitch calling better, but I'm not sure their tentative usage of Garver this year necessarily means they don't believe in his capability behind the plate. We'll see how things go next year I guess.
  25. 2wins87
    In principle I would prefer them to Darvish since they are younger and would be cheaper. Of course, that's what gives the Pirates and Rays tons of leverage, so in reality it's probably pretty unlikely that the Twins could land them without giving up a lot from their farm system. I'm not sure exactly what it would take to get them, so I'd prefer their contracts to Darvish's, but yeah, most realistic trades might be too much in terms of prospects.
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