diehardtwinsfan

I've seen this posted a couple of times and need to point out that this HAS NOT been true the last few seasons. Both this year and last, Ryan got out and did what he needed to do right away. This was true back in the Dome days, but not so much recently. Last season, the entire offseason was finished a week or two after the WS. That said, Levi is right about free agents... We've done a ton, and while none have been the ace we had hoped for, Ryan went out and got decent ones. People weren't complaining about Nolasco and Hughes when they happened, and for good reason, they were the top of the second tier that wouldn't break the bank and had reasonable upside. We just gave up prospect to get rid of Nolasco, and Hughes is still around (for different reasons)... We started this season with a rotation of Nolasco, Hughes, and Santana... all of which were FA acquisitions. We actually have some upside in the form of young talent right now... I think you have to play it, especially in an offseason where looking at the available FA makes you think that an extended bout with the stomach flu is more palatable.

103. That's truly a terrible number, and it's been some time since the Twins have been able to earn the top pick overall. This season was an abomination, especially given the high hopes that Twins fans had coming in. There's no need to really go over what went wrong.There's a number of things, but pitching most definitely tops the list. It finished second and third as well. Falvey and the new GM (presumably Levine at this point) will likely have their hands full as they tackle what will be an interesting offseason. The offensive core of the team is largely there, and if they don't move quickly, they will be looking at decent pitching by the time the offense leaves I'm going to assume we won't be a playoff team in 2017. We might repeat 2015 if things fall right. I do think the team as a whole underperformed, but not to the tune of a 30 game swing that they would need to make in order to be competitive. I'm not going to punt on 2017, but I am going to commit to getting some young pitching and see what we have with the guys who are ready. Tender/nontender: I'm going to tender Gibson, Escobar, Kintzler, and Pressley. They are all relatively cheap, and while none were really great, they've shown promise to varying degrees. The pen wasn't very good, but with plenty of help on the way, I think you have to hold out hope for some of them. On the nontender side, I'd attempt to trade Plouffe, Santiago, and Milone. I suspect that all will be non-tendered, but this definitely qualifies for the take what you can get... and I'm not expecting much. Mauer/Perkins/Hughes: I start dialing Mauer's role back a bit. I'd want him playing against RHers as often as possible, but I'm telling him to plan on playing some 3rd and occasional OF. Vargas earned a shot to start and I want to see what we have in Park. He was impressive in April, got hurt and tried playing through it. He was pretty good when demoted to Rochester and re-injured the same wrist injury leading to surgery and shut down. He's going to get a shot. If either Vargas or Park fails, that puts Mauer back at 1B/DH. Bottom line is that I don't want the 2 years remaining on Mauer's contract to prevent the Twins from seeing what they have in Vargas and Park. The same goes true for Palka and Walker in the minors, as I fully expect to see one of them in the majors at some point. Hughes will be slated for the pen, with a chance to earn a starting role. His injury is a difficult one to return from, and as such he's not in my plans. Perkins is not in my plans either. He will certainly get a shot to regain his old role should he be healthy this spring, but both of these guys have huge question marks. Perkins is only signed through 2017, so he's an easy one going forward as he's likely going to spend some or all of it on the 60 day DL. Trades: On the trade side, I'm firmly shopping Dozier. He will get value, the question is what. The Yankees might be a good fit, but I doubt Sanchez in on the table and most of their good pitching prospects will be starting in AA, where most of our good ones will start. For now, I'm going to pretend that the Pirates will trade Glasnow and prospects for him. I don't know if they would do that, but that is the type of trade I'd want to target, namely high upside pitching that is major league ready or close to it. I wouldn't be against a Yankees trade that netted some guys like Justus Sheffield, but that wouldn't be my first plan (unless the Yankees were to offer Gary Sanchez). Santana would be shopped as well. I'd seek more catching help here than pitching, as no team with MLB ready high upside pitching is going to trade to trade it to acquire a MLB pitcher. They would certainly trade guys in the lower minors, which I'd be fine with, but I'd hope Santana could add some competition in at the C spot. If not, I'd take a nice package of prospects if one was offered. I would be just as willing to keep Santana around too, but I do not think his value will be any higher this July, and there's plenty of risk should the team not move him. Coaching changes: While I suspect Falvey and the new GM will stick with Molitor for 2017, I'd probably make new on field management a priority. After watching this team, I'm convinced that Molitor is not the guy you want at the helm for managing young help. His treatment of guys like Berrios, Polanco, and Chargois this season was head scratching at best. While I recognize that a manager doesn't have a whole lot of options to work with when it comes to getting performance out of young major league players, I don't think Molitor showed that he was suited for that task. My preference is to find a manager who specializes in developing young talent, as transitioning and development are probably the biggest needs this organization faces. I would likely look closely at some of Joe Maddon's lieutenants in Chicago, and I would give one of them the top spot. International: If Shohei Otani is posted, I would bid heavily on him. Any potential Cuban posting would be of interest too. Those could potentially change the landscape of the final roster, but I'm not going to assume any are on the roster come opening day. Free Agency: I like what Buxton did in September, but one month isn't going to change my opinion on him that much. I'm getting a potential 1 year filler that can serve as a starter or capable 4th OF, and I will not be handing Buxton the job. He will be the starter if he earns it or in Rochester if he does not. I would target a guy like Austin Jackson or Carlos Gomez. Players like that are likely going to get a 1 year contract to rebuild value, and should be able to be shipped away relatively easily should Buxton finally earn the job. I would sign one of Gregg Holland, Drew Storen, or some other buy low RP candidate to bolster the pen. 40 man additions/removal: As of this writing, 38 names are on the 40 man. Dozier is traded. I'm assuming that Santana ends up being traded as well, though I'm not certain he will get that catcher that they need. That takes us to 36. Non tendering or trading Plouffe and Santiago (Milone is already gone) takes us to 34. I suspect one of Hughes/Perkins returns and gets off the 60 day, but I think the odds clearly say at least one is likely to be gone for 2017 as well. Likewise, a free agent CF on a one year deal takes up a spot, as does a reliever like Holland/Storen. Regardless, you cannot count on that, so you have to keep their spots for now. Other DFA guys: Centeno, Grossman, DSan, Boshers, Landa. This takes us from 34 down to 29. Players to add: Garver, Granite, Palka, Romero, Jorge, Zach Jones, Vielma or Goodrum (as I need a MI backup). I leave Thrope off b/c I doubt anyone takes him, but if I'm unsure, he's a must add. That brings us back to 35. I'm assuming that we get 1 major league pitcher for Dozier and for fun, let's just assume a catcher is picked up too. F Finally, since I used FA to pick up a 1 year option for CF as well as an RP, I'm up to 40. I've also got some flexibility in guys like Murphy/Wimmers/Tonkin who I'd be quick to drop if needed, but would be willing to give a chance as long as there isn't a huge roster crunch. I'm fully expecting Hughes and/or Perkins to make their way back to the 60 day DL this spring, but you cannot really do anything about that until it happens. Final Roster: C - Murphy/acquisition/Garver 1B - Park/Mauer DH - Vargas/Mauer 2B - Polanco SS - Escobar 3B - Sano/Mauer LF - Rosario/Mauer CF - Acquisition/Buxton RF - Kepler/Mauer Bench: Mauer, Vielma, Garver or Murphy, CF acquisition (note that if Buxton starts in the minors, I'd likely consider bringing Palka up and letting Rosario be the backup CF) SP - Gibson, May, potential Dozier acquisition piece, Berrios, and Mejia. RB - Kintzler, Chargois, Pressley, FA acquisition, Hughes, Tonkin, rotating spot between minor league options (Melotakis, Duffey, Hildenberger, Burdi, Reed).

Well, it's pitching pitching and pitching (though I'm 100% on board with the strength training comment and any kind of thing like that which may alter things if needed)... That said, I think you have to trade Dozier. I'd like to get something like Glasnow in a headline, though I don't know if the Pirates need help at 2B that bad so as to trade Glasnow as a piece, but those are the types of trades I'd be looking for. None of the FA SPs scream worth it. I'd rather roll with Esan (if not traded), Gibson, May, Mejia, Berrios, trade acquisition... especially given that one of Gonsalves, Stewart, Jay, Romero, or Jorge could be forcing their way up as soon as mid-season. I do think guys like Holland/Storen make a ton of sense. Castro doesn't excite me too much. It's not a bad acquisition given the defensive upgrade, but I think I'd roll with Murphy/Garver at C unless we acquired a starting catcher by trading Ervin. I'd keep most of the offense in tact (minus Plouffe) and tell Mauer that he needs to work on fly balls as well as some occasional 3B. You aren't getting rid of him, so he needs to start being flexible if he wants to play more. He should be fine defensively at 3rd as the skills (other than the arm) are pretty much the same as at first. I like the idea of keeping him around against righties, but I definitely want to see more of Park/Vargas at 1st/DH, which means that Mauer is going to move around a bit. I'm all for international, but I doubt any of those guys could help now. Otani has to actually be posted (no guarantee there), and he's probably the closest to an option that could help.

I'm not saying Stewart was a bad pick. That's the guy I wanted them to take at 4, and for much the same reasons you cited. The upside though was a #1, as the talk was that he could have 4 pitches rated + or better. He obviously hasn't lived up to that at this point, though it was clear he was very raw (and again, this was hardly news). I haven't given up on him, but I do admit at this point the luster is off of him. that said, the real issue with a guy like Green has more to do with the idea that he's going to need time in the minors. I don't have a problem taking him based on that ceiling if they are comfortable that he will be an ace, but I would say that it would be unreasonable for us to expect him to be in the majors in two years.

Question on Gordon. He had an OPS north of .800 for most of the year, but obviously tailed off. Is that more an issue of endurance that he just needs to adjust to or that he's just not quite that good with the bat? If he could maintain an .800 OPS with the bat while playing average to above defense, he's an excellent prospect, but if that OPS dips more into the .720 range, I don't really see him being that good of an asset. He's still above average for a SS, but hardly one that really propels the team forward.

If anything, I expect Falvey to add positions to the scouting department early on. I'm not expecting a whole lot of blowing it up that far down... at least right off the bat. Some guys will eventually be let go, but that won't likely happen before June. As for this, yes, I think you have to get the ace. But keep in mind that this was the same reason that we took Stewart a few years back, and that hasn't developed the way we'd have hoped. There's risk there. Green may have the most upside, but he's going to need to spend more time in the minors than say those Vandy pitchers. I'm not against that, but what this tream really needs is for one of those Vandy pitchers (or another college pitcher) to take a big leap forward leaving us with a sure fire college ace.

so if Mejia has a changeup in the low to mid 90s, that means he's throwing his FB around 110, right? Stewart is an enigma. We all knew he would take time to develop, so on that you have to expect some downs to go with the ups. The fact that he's still difficult to hit in AA at 21 is impressive, but that K rate... ouch... Then again, he had a nice bump in that in A+ this season, so perhaps we see a similar step forward. I wouldn't count on Kohl for 2017, perhaps not even 2018, but I certainly wouldn't write him off. There's still tremendous upside there, though at some point, the odds of hitting it start to drop.

I was going to say... Santana and then no one? I'd have left my 2 and 3 spots blank out of spite... though to be fair Kintzler deserved some nod... But seriously, Nolasco?

Buxton had one good month... Not seeing this. I'd vote Vargas over Buxton for no other reason than he forced his way back into the 2017 picture.

Couple points... I don't get the love for Turner. Garver is a much better prospect. Turner has no offensive upside, and while he's a better defender, Garver is no slouch there either. Garver could be a legit major league starter, and with Turner's bat, I've got to think the best he's going to get is a Drew Butera type career. Maybe I'm being hard here, but Garver has both out performed Turner and has done so at higher levels (despite starting lower) while being roughly the same age. As for Wells, I think Thorpe has the higher ceiling (he gets more Ks and supposedly throws a bit harder), but two lost seasons really hurts... Flip side, he's still quite young. Not sure what to think about him right now, but given his age and that he's going to be in FTM next season, that's pretty impressive.

yeah, I think Rortvedt is probably a bit too high. Let's see him prove it. I'd imagine time fully dedicating himself to his craft would allow for a much better showing in Etown next season... that would be my hope there. At that point, I'd move him up a bit more.

I'd love to know what is going on with Thorpe. Is he still recovering from mono?

Nolasco was bad before Allen too. Not sure what to think there. Allen was the reason they started making more of a push for strikeouts, but goodness was the pitching bad.

I'm wondering if part of the wait is b/c they are going to announce them both with Falvey working through the candidates now... certainly wouldn't be unheard of, but I have to think that sooner than later this needs done as he's going to need time to work through offseason plans.

I think the big issue here is risk that gets assumed waiting till July. A lot can happen between now and July, and in Santana's case, that rehabbed UCL in particular is a potential time bomb, not to mention that over his career he's definitely spent his fair amount of time on the DL. I'm not against keeping him. I'm not against trading him. I don't, however, believe that Ervin's value will be that much higher come the trade deadline next year than it will be this offseason, and that lack of FA pitching is why. I do think there may be merit in getting an MLB ready higher ceiling pitching prospect for BD, and then trading Santana for something else (you won't get MLB ready pitching for him, but could potentially get that catcher or some higher ceiling lower minors guys). 2018 has a lot of big name pitchers hitting FA... You can use 2017 to evaluate guys like Berrios, Mejia, May, Duffey, Gibson, new guy, and potentially guys like Gonsalves, Jay, and Stewart. Then you use 2018 for the big splash to fill in those gaps a bit and start shedding off or moving to the pen the pieces that don't fit. My big issue with the sell high thing is that the Twins already have the hitting core here, most of whom are already producing. If this team is going to contend sooner than later, they need to deal with starting pitching sooner than later as well as make sure guys like Sano, Polanco, Escobar, and Kepler are focusing on improving their defense.

I'd rather just promote Engelb Vielma if that's what you want. I'm not a fan of the all glove no bat SS. I'd rather just roll with Escobar. Don't have a problem with a guy like Vielma as a defensive replacement, but am a bit too jaded by history to think that this is how it would work.

You're right. It's getting old. I'm with you on Ervin, for good value, I'd move him. I'd probably move BD a bit quicker, but I can certainly understand the motivation to move Santana as well. Me thinks the real reason it needs to be said is b/c all of the second guessing on these forums about the trades that didn't happen. I mean... the Angels were really offering Trout for Plouffe this offseason, right? (yes, I'm exaggerating... just trying to prove a point)

It's called a learning curve, and whether it's baseball or some other profession, these types of things always exist when you put someone in a harder (or different) role than what they were doing previously. Refusing to show patience through said curve and have a dedication to development is the surest way to see your talent go (and have success) somewhere else. Berrios is probably the closest thing we have in the high minors that is both MLB ready and is likely to have a career that will be better than the average starter. You need to be patient with this b/c while he's shown that he's got little to learn in AAA, he clearly has plenty to learn in MLB. This is not a pitcher you plan on leaving in Rochester to start next year. This is a guy who you give a shot to. He has options if needed, but I'd like to hope that with some different coaches and an offseason to focus on improvements that he can prove himself in 2017.

Is there anything saying that McCloud cannot be the GM?

I want to respond to this, but the only thing that comes to mind would be something that would get me banned...

You've been planning this for months...

Ryan's inaction... Let's see... traded for Meyer, May, and Worley. Signed Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana... yep.. inaction. and that's before we talk about scrap heap guys like Pelf. He made a lot of mistakes, and not for a lack of action. If you want to define action is taking concrete actions to fix mistakes, I'll give you that, but that isn't what you said earlier. Doing something for the sake of doing something is about the surest way to make sure things get worse. You have to actually identify the problem first... then you can fix it.

Sorry, this isn't true at all, especially when you consider that there are successful entrepreneurs and unsuccessful ones all of which took action. Making mistakes can cause failure... but true failure is failing to recognize them and learn from them. Sometimes, not taking action is the right answer. Sometimes it isn't. I won't argue with you when you say that TR wasn't one to take much action... there's some truth to that... but that doesn't make it the answer to the Twins problem currently. The new GM could take lots of action and do it all wrong. Sadly, it can almost always get worse. I just don't want to see action for the sake of action. I want to see action targeted at fixing specific problems.

Honestly, this is another head scratching data point about a guy who can be so dominant in AAA but cannot seem to have anything more than short stretches of good play at MLB. Do keep in mind he wasn't bad through the first half of the year. I have to think that there's something going on at the coaching side of things. We shouldn't be redeveloping our players at the top level, and it sure seems like that's what we're doing (whether it's true or not, I don't know... but the perception certainly fits).

We've already got an all glove SS in the minors... I'd rather go for upside if they are replacing Escobar (and I'm perfectly fine running him out there next season). Something though needs to be done on the pitching side of things.