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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan
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Game Thread: Angels@Twins 9/9 6:10PM
diehardtwinsfan replied to Riverbrian's topic in Archived Game Threads
I thought it was just Chitown. We much prefer Olivia. Ashbury is too stingy to bring her out. -
Vargas is a year younger than Hicks and did better a full season of ball at FTM, whereas Hicks earned a midseason promotion to FTM and did not fair as well. I think Vargas is a better prospect. I should have looked at Hicks a bit closer, as he's another C+ type guy that could shoot up some lists with some good results and probably deserved an HM. As for Landa, I don't get the love. The ERA looked sexy, but he's striking out 7.5/9 and walking 4.5/9 in rookie ball. While they were better than his GCL peripherals, they don't scream upside. I hope I'm wrong with this kid, but I'm not even sure there's going to be room for him next year in Cedar Rapids. There's some upside there, but he's not dominating the rookie leagues. I struggled a bit with Minier. He got off to a great start, but then really tanked. He seemed very streaky and lots of bad streaks. I'd like to see him get a bit more results before he creeps into the top 20. That said, I think he'd be on a lot of team's top 20 lists.
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The new CBA gives international guys 5 years before they have to be on the 40 man. The old CBA which governs these two does not. It's 4 years for them. Kepler was signed at the beginning of that period and got 4 years in. Sano signed after rookie ball ended, and so he has an extra year.
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Reverse Standings and the 2014 MLB Draft
diehardtwinsfan replied to cmb0252's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
The cubs have played 3 more games than us too, so in a way the destiny is in our hands to lose those games. I don't think at this point that the WS are going to leap us, but I'd rather pick 4 overall than 6. The Brewers are right there with us too. -
sounds like surgery is just a scope... likely to see if there's something not being captured by the MRI.
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It seems as though Rosario's power seems to be the last that returns when he gets promoted. He will hit for contact, but the power lags for a few weeks. For a while he seemed like it was returning, but then he hit a couple week long slump that sapped his overall numbers. I agree, he may start in AA, but I could see him in Rochester too.
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I realized this morning that I left Kepler off. I was looking at him when I put the list together, but forgot about him. I'm not terribly high on him mainly due to the fact that he's been with the org longer than Sano has and he's only in CR, and didn't exactly light the world on fire there either. I get that he's young, but he's a 40 man decision this offseason, and he looks to have another 3 years in the minors yet. That leaves him little room for error. I almost hope he does poor enough in the AFL to not be on anyone's rule V radar so that the Twins get an extra year to make a decision on him. I intentionally left Harrison off, though I need to look at him a bit closer. I think he should have at least been an HM. I don't remember his season at CR being all that great. Though he's very young for that league. I'll probably edit my list a bit later today or tomorrow with that in mind.
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For fun, minor league seasons are over and I don't see AFL changing people's rankings. I'm going to toss my top 20 in there. Feel free to add yours flame me, I really don't care. 1) Byron Buxton CF - I didn't think he was 2 overall last season given his inexperience, but he did everything possible to make me look silly. And I hope he continues to do that. He's now the top prospect in baseball. Hopefully, he continues that in AA as there's now here to go but down. 2) Miguel Sano 3B - You could make a case that he's the 2nd best prospect in baseball, though some will rate him otherwise. I expect him to start in AAA, but his AA season did leave a bit to be desired. Considering that he was struggling with the Mendoza line for a bit and managed to raise his average about 40 points, I'm not worried about 2014. I suspect he starts in Rochester, but he might spend a bit of time with Byron in NB. 3) Alex Meyer SP - Outright dominant when he pitched. If he hadn't had shoulder problems, I wouldn't be surprised if he was in a lot of top 20 lists, but instead he's going to get dropped a bit. Hope he does well in the AFL. Should start in Rochester. 4) Eddie Rosario 2B - I still think this kid is underrated. He can flat out hit, and he does so at a position where hitting is hard to find. He struggled a bit down the stretch in NB. Not sure if that was facing better talent or just being tired. I suspect he also starts in Rochester next year. If I lived anywhere near there, I'd go just to see these 4 guys play, as there's a chance they all end up playing there for a few weeks midseason. 5) Kohl Stewart SP - I know a lot of lists will rank him higher because they like tools. I tend to favor results at higher levels. That's not a knock on Stewart, but I'd like to see how he fairs in low A ball next season. 6) Josmil Pinto C - Another hitter with mixed reviews on defense at a hard to staff positions. His caught stealing rate dropped this season, though last year I think he nailed about 38%, which is not bad. Not sure how he does on pitch framing and calling games, but a catchers that post .900 OPS don't exactly grow on trees. I still think Mauer should catch, but Pinto should be able to fill the Doumit role quite well and the bat is good enough to DH as well. I also think he squeaks into some top 100 lists this offseason. I don't see Doumit getting traded this offseason, but if he does, Pinto moves into the role. If not, here's to hoping Doumit gets off to a great start next season. 7) Trevor May SP - I don't get the dislike for him. His K rate was up this year. His walk rate was down. His FIP was pretty good too. Yes, the ERA was not what you want, but he's striking out more than a batter per inning. I don't see him going to the pen until he's out of options and there's no one pushing him. He starts in Rochester, and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he's called up ahead of Meyer, much to the dismay of many TD readers. 8) JO Berrios SP - Apparently he throws mid 90s, which for some reason I missed in his scouting reports. His low A season was a success, but he reminded us why it was that you don't always trust rookie ball stats. He definitely met his first challenges in CR, but as a 19 year old to post an ERA around 4 and strike out a batter per inning, I'll take it. 9) Adam Walker 1B - A little older than I'd like for his league, but 27 HRs is nothing to sneeze at. He did drop his K rate pretty substantially from his rookie ball season, but he needs to improve that walk rate. Fort Meyers will be fairly telling for him in this area. Like CR, it's another pitchers league so a similar season with slight improvements in the K and BB rates will tell a lot as to whether or not he has a major league future. 10) Kennys Vargas 1B - You could probably swap Vargas and Walker as the two are similar. To Vargas's credit, he put his .800 OPS up at a higher league. His walk rate is a bit better though he didn't have the power. He will start in NB for his age 23 season. A good season there will tell what kind of future he has. 11) Jorge Polanco 2B/SS - 2 years in a row posting an OPS > .800 for a middle infielder will get some notice. He wasn't as good as he was last season, so I wouldn't be surprised if the bat tailed off next year. If he can do what he did this year in Fort Meyers, he will start getting some attention. Oh, and he'll be 20 next July. 12) Felix Jorge SP - The Twins had a lot of success from rookie ball pitchers this year. This 19 year old struck out 72 in 61 innings while walking 18. Should be another nice one to watch in CR. 13) Lewis Thorpe SP - I'm high on this 17 year old kid. He did better than Stewart and Gonslaves in the GCL, and he's still in high school. I'm not sure if his lack of promotion was due to him being in school or something else, but given his results, I have to rank him. I'm guessing he will start in the Appy next year, but given what he did in the GCL, I'd love to see him in Cedar Rapids. A Stewart, Gonslaves, Thorpe, Jorge, Eades rotation would look nice. 14) Stephen Gonsalves SP - What can you say, I like my rookie ball pitchers with sexy stats. The kid has a chip on his shoulder too, and he fell due to a perceived character issue involving beer (really, just beer?) and the perception he wouldn't sign. Good catch by Twins scouting. He could start in the Appy, but I'd like to see the Twins try him out in CR. 15) Michael Tonkin RP - If I remember right, he's Kubel's brother in law. He's dominated in Rochester and I think will do just fine in Minnesota. Relief pitchers don't get a ton of love, but like starting pitchers, I like power in my pens. Tonkin should be a late inning reliever and could succeed quickly. 16) Miguel Sulbaran SP - Put up better numbers than Berrios in low A ball, though supposedly he doesn't throw as hard (low 90s). I'm still in awe of Terry Ryan for pulling a legit prospect for Butera. I don't know if he will make it, but that was impressive. 17) Max Kepler CF - He's 20 and got his first taste of full season ball. He's loaded up with tools, but also very raw. It's hard to believe he's been with the org for 4 years, but he has. He was signed in the same year as Sano, but due to being signed before rookie leagues started, he's a 40 man decision this offseason. He didn't exactly dominate in CR, though he got off to a great start. He's going to be an interesting rule V choice as there's potential for him to be left unprotected and potential for him to be taken, even though he clearly would not do well on a major league roster. 18) Logan Darnell SP - I'm higher on him than most. I see him as a #3/4 type guy. He took some lumps going from AA to AAA, but this 24 year old did a pretty good job in NB and settled down in Rochester after his initial start. I think he starts in Rochester, but this is another kid that might get an early call to Minnesota. 19) Ryan Eades SP - Didn't do as well as I'd like in rookie ball, but this was another potential 1st rounder that fell. Ceiling is Scott Baker. Should start in CR. 20) Mason Melotakis SP - Took a substantial hit in the K and BB rates in his first year as a starter. I suspect he returns to relief role and could quite possibly be a dominant late inning guy. In the mean time, he will start in Fort Meyers. 21) Zach Jones RP - Another 2012 RP draftee. Needs to cut down on the walk rate, but a hit rate of 5 per 9 innings makes up for a lot of that. A bit more control and this is another power pitcher out of the pen. HM: Travis Harrison, JT Chargois (injury), Daniel Santana, Zach Larson, Randy Rosario, DJ Baxendale, and Luke Bard. What I liked, positions of need: 11 SP, 1 C, and 2 MI. Also have what most would call a sure thing at CF and 3B to go with them. Couple of nice 1B prospects, though these guys will be looking at ETAs in the 2015/16 timeframe. What I really like is that there were a lot of guys who were not on this list who would be on other teams lists. The top 5 guys could be the number 1 guy on many team's lists. Beyond the top 20, there are plenty of guys that Sickle's would give C+ grades to and who would be top 20 guys in other systems. This is an exceptionally deep system that will go deeper before it really starts graduating guys. Edit: Added Kepler in.
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Definitely some interesting names. I wouldn't get too worried about the guys being put on the 40 man that don't belong. No one was DFAd for this, so think of it as a really nice bonus for some hard work. These guys will get DFAd in short notice, so let them enjoy their cups of coffee and have a story they can tell their kids some day. Hicks will NOT be in Minnesota next year. His lack of a callup should make that clear. CF next season will belong to Presley unless Hicks forces the issue. I'm fine with that, as I'd like the Twins to give Presley a full year to see what he can do. If he can figure things out, worst case is that you can trade him to make room for Hicks. If he doesn't, he becomes the 4th OF of the future when Hicks is ready.
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Bert's comments/ Unwritten rules.
diehardtwinsfan replied to Mr. Brooks's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
At 7-1, the game is pretty much out of reach. That said, as long as the losing team is playing hard, I have nothing against the winning team from playing hard too. If they've given up, fine. But I don't see how any unwritten rule comes into play when the losing team is still trying to win. And baseball isn't the only place this happens. A few years back a couple of Cowboys were whining when Farve shoved a late game TD pass through their defense. Of course, they were still trying to win, so quite frankly, I had no problems with him slamming the door on them. -
This is a make or break season for Ponder. I don't see any other way to look at it. He cannot have games like he did during the middle of last season. He doesn't need to put up Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees numbers to win football games (assuming of course that Peterson is effective and healthy), but he has to at the least make teams pay for stacking 8-10 guys in the box. If he can do that, Peterson's goal of 2500 yards might not be unrealistic.
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If Mauer is done catching does he make the HOF?
diehardtwinsfan replied to Pius Jefferson's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Dankind? -
Ideally, these goals should have been established a while back. This was a rebuilding year, so anything that answers those questions would be what I consider successful. 1) Dozier 2) Bullpen 3) Deduno 4) Arcia 5) Pinto (SSS I know, but thus far he's shown he can be an ML starter) Beyond that, I'm not so certain. Next year is going to be a bit more of that. Plouffe, Parmelee, Colabello, and Presley are going to have to prove something at the ML level. They will have all next season to do it, but all could find themselves unemployed or bench players if they do not. The next wave will be knocking at the door and guys like Sano, Meyer, May, Buxton, Hicks (hopefully), and Darnell could all be making a case for PT next season. Rochester fans should be excited.
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I'll disagree on Hicks. I think he needs to spend some time in Rochester next year. Presley can keep his spot warm and potentially build up some trade value if he can put it all together. Parmelee needs an open position (and I'd argue that Colabello needs PT too) and I think Escobar can be a the super utility guy. One of Parm and Colabello can turn into that power guy off the bench while I'm hoping the other can turn into an above average regular. I really hope Ryan can find a suitor for Doumit this offseason. Otherwise, whomever is the new manager need to know that Doumit is not going to get nearly as much PT as Pinto, Parm, and Cola all need to use that DH spot from time to time.
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Did you forget what Parmelee did in AAA last year? He was better than Colabello.
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Like others said, I think we can safely assume that pitching is going to need improved for the next wave, but I don't think you break the FA budget to go out and get it right now when you don't know what else is going to be improved and you don't know who's going to stick. I'm guessing there will be one big FA signing. I want Tanaka personally, but I'd be happy with Hughes as well. Pass on Linci and pass on Santana (to an ML contract at least). Next year's rotation: FA, Gibson, Worley, Deduno (if healthy), and Correia.
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Hicks is going to have to beat out Pressley next year, and he's going to start in AAA to begin. I'm fine with that. I'm not sure what's going on with Parm. What he did last year in AAA is ridiculous. I'd have to think he's going to get another shot next season, though I don't know if he's pressing too hard, being too patient, or just cannot catch up to good fastballs.
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Arcia to First & 2015 Opening Day
diehardtwinsfan replied to DakotaTwins's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
There's a couple of issues here, and I'm not sure this is ready to be answered beginning in 2014. Let's assume for a second that Dozier's improvement is for really and we have an .800 OPS GG 2B in him. Let's also assume that Rosario continues to destroy minor league pitching and gets a shot sometime next year and proves he can OPS in the .800 to .900 range with defense that isn't as good as Dozier's. What do you do? The big problem I see is figuring out who in the next wave will be useful. Pinto, Plouffe, Parmelee, and Presley will all be vying in some ways for long term PT in the OF, 1B, and DH. Then of course there's this Mauer guy who is going to get some regular PT there when he's not catching. Shifting Arcia there now could potentially impede us from figuring out which of these guys is going to be worth anything long term. In the long term, there's a second question to ask. This is obvious if someone works out at first, but if none of these guys do, what makes more sense? Shift Arcia to 1st and move Rosario back into the OF, or use FA to get a reasonably priced .800 OPS 1B (shoudln't be too difficult) and trade one of Rosario or Dozier for impact pitching? I think that going to depend on how things play out in 2014/15 timeframe as this team gets good again. I don't see it as an option for right now. -
I haven't bought into either of them, and I haven't sold out on either of them either. Both have the potential to be above average hitters if they figure things out, and I think both will get time in 2014 to prove themselves. Plouffe may be on a shorter leash, especially is Sano is mashing in Rochester, though if he can out perform Parm/Cola/Presley/Hicks, then he could shift to first or LF.
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Or John Kruck.
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Article: Twins' Rotation Is Out of Whack
diehardtwinsfan replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I know it's a pipe dream, but I'd go hard after Tanaka. The Twins have some decent guys in AA (Meyer, May, Baxendale) and in AAA (Darnell) that are all in the "near ready" state next year to go with some marginal upside guys in Hendricks, Worley, Diamond, and Deduno that should get some time as well. As much as I hate to say it, I think the Twins will make one addition to the rotation.. if that. I'd rather that be the highest upside guy they can get, which I think this season will be Tanaka. I'd settle for Hughes, as I think he'd flourish outside of New York, but I want Tanaka. -
If Mauer is done catching does he make the HOF?
diehardtwinsfan replied to Pius Jefferson's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If his career were to end today, people would be debating it pretty seriously. Catcher with 3 batting titles, an MVP, multiple all star appearnces, and gold gloves... yeah, they'd be discussing it, and I wouldn't be surprised if he got in. A couple more years producing at current levels? 1st ballot. -
I'd sum this up in two words: stay out. Republicans and Democrats are doing a great job of being hypocrites here too. We don't need more wars. The problem is that the powers that be benefit immensely from them, at the expense of the fine men and women who risk their lives so that the elite can get richer. There's a time for war. This isn't it.
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I'm not sure I agree with that at all. Even if Buxton leaps him on the depth chart, LF will still belong to Hicks once Willingham leaves unless Presly posts an .850 OPS next season... and even that would likely lead to one of Presley or Hicks getting traded.
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- aaron hicks
- brian dozier
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