diehardtwinsfan

Keep him as far away from MN as possible...

I'm not a fan of A-Rod, but there's a CBA, and while A-Rod violated it, MLB should have responded with the rules laid out in the CBA. Instead, they threw it out the door, and A-Rod is quite right in his response. I don't think anyone is innocent here, and lest we all forget *cough contraction *cough, Selig is a bit of a dirt bag himself. I'm no fan of A-Rod, but he deserved a 50 day suspension, at worst he deserved what Braun got. Selig is going to such an extreme that A-Rod is likely going to get off from this.

You are mistaken. A pitcher defected last month. Expected to need some minor league time though.

Really, the .876 OPS in Indianapolis last year or the .806 OPS this year there doesn't count? You are correct in that he's spent of lot of time in AAA and it hasn't yielded success. It doesn't mean that he couldn't. Didn't Theo make some comment a while back that he didn't believe there was such a thing as an AAAA guy, but someone who just takes a bit longer to develop? I get wanting Ryan and Gardy fired. I wanted Gardy gone, and as I've said numerous times, I don't think Ryan is the right guy for this job in a year or two when the wave arrives, but this really isn't the reason to be upset. Let the kid have his shot. He's at worst another Clete and at best he could be much better. Simply having him here from day one is already one step better than what we had in CF last season. In the mean time it means CF is one less excuse the Twins have to not go out and get pitching.

Why in the world do people need to paint this guy in terms of extremes. He's a decent stop gap with some upside. Worst case, he's a place holder for Hicks/Buxton and a 4th OF when he arrives, and that I think at this point is pretty much guaranteed. Best case, he's a late bloomer and he comes close to mirroring his minor league success in the majors, at which point, he can hold the job until Buxton or Hicks forces it and then he can be traded for a far better return than an aging Justin Morneau. People blast the front office for not taking risks like this and then they blast them when they do. This is a cheap acquisition that could possibly turn out to be a very shrewd baseball move or may simply provide the team with a 4th OF with some pop. Of all the consternation about the front office, I don't get this one. The team has one OF in the future in RF and Willingham for one more season in LF with both Buxton and Hicks likely knocking on the door next season. They aren't, nor should they, going after a guy like Ellsbury, and quite frankly Pressley makes a far better placeholder than Clete. I don't know what people expected to get for Justin. It wasn't going to be much, Justin pretty much assured that when he sucked this spring. I wish him well, and I hope he gets a ring in Pittsburg, but he wasn't going to bring in much. That was a gamble, and it didn't pay off.

I suspect Pressly heads to the minors. He served his year time, now they will burn his first option and have him starting in Rochester. As for who I expect to be starting... Gibson and Corriea for sure. I'm hoping that they have at the least added Tanaka to that mix, and possibly Hughes as well. For the fifth spot, I'd go with Deduno or Worley. I'm leaning towards Worley presently.

Honestly with Mauer, there was no reason to bring him back, even if he was fine. I wouldn't be surprised if the issues were exaggerated solely for the purpose of keeping him out of games.. Oh and Tanaka... I want one.

Because you tell the world you are going to trade him and that he's of little value and then don't understand why GMs all lowball you.

One guy should have this kind of power... nor should one guy have the power to make the trade. If I were running things, there would be 3-6 guys making the decision with the need for a super majority to go forward with it... That's just me.

I doubt Garza happens even if the Twins were interested... That's just me. That said, I think you were a bit hard on Arcia. His season was a success as far as I'm concerned. He needs to take a step forward, and given his age and minor league track record, I do not doubt him. Also, if the Twins can get any value for Albers, they should trade him. He got off to a great start, and as soon as the book came out on his 85 MPH heater, teams hit him very well. He's a DFA candidate in my opinion and if the has value, I'd trade him.

Welcome to the site... and great posts... My only quibble is that I thought the money was spent well in 2010... not so much after...

I actually think that TR is the right guy for the job right now. I'm not convinced he's the right guy for the job when next wave arrives. That said, I have to echo what others had said regarding what is perceived to be arrogance. He took a pretty unnecessary pot shot at Mackey, and like others have said, you don't get to beat your chest on your track record when it sucks. This really does concern me. I get that teams wanted to model themselves after the Twins in the early part of the 2000s... However at this point, their success has worn off and the game is clearly changing. Unfortunately, I don't see Ryan recognizing this, and that concerns me. Fortunately, what the Twins need most right now is good scouting to identify those high ceiling guys and a means of acquiring farm talent via trade. This is what Ryan has done well throughout his career. They need this more than explosive FA signings. So for the time being, I think Ryan is the right guy to handle things. Ask me this question in 2 years, and if nothing else changes, I will not be so confident. When some of those guys fail, Ryan is going to have to fill in some gaps via FA. I dont' see him doing this.

The question I'd ask is whether or not this is possible. They could go out and get all the good FAs and still not be competitive. I like the idea of some smart signings, which I think Abreau and Tanaka cover, but those guys are likely going to take some lumps next year.

The words are encouraging. The question is how they are going to do it. Personally, I'm not a fan of huge deals for what I see on the FA market (minus Cano, but I don't see the Twins going in that direction). A 3, maybe 4, year deal for a Hughes type guy would be smart. Spending big money on Lincecum, Johnson, and some of these other names tossed about wouldn't be that smart of a move at all. I do hope the Twins do some spending, but the guys I think warrant the longer term deals are Tanaka and the two Cuban defectors, one of whom will spend time in the minors. I think that's the right course of action, though I'm not sure that this will make 2014 significantly better.

That isn't how it works though. You are selectively looking at a few successful cases (who might I add were also not struggling to hit low A ball at the same age) and ignoring the countless number of guys who failed at that age. Have we forgotten about Hicks already? He's 23. Every player develops differently, and every player's development needs to be considered in the general context of how they are doing. To put in perspective, if they protected Kepler this season, he'd have to go Buxton on A and A+ ball next season to position himself for AA and possibly AAA the following year. I don't see him doing that.

I'm not sure I'm getting what you are saying here. Stewart doesn't need to be protected for another four years. If all goes well, he's pitching in Minnesota by then. Kepler's issue is that he can in theory be taken now by another team.. However, if they protect him, he's likely going to have to make a Hicks like jump from AA to the majors with no options to protect him or the team should he get off to a Hicks like start. I personally have a tough time believing he's going to get taken in the major league portion of the rule V draft, though I suspect he's going to need to be put on the AA or AAA reserve rosters.

Personally, I think it has nothing to do with the results and everything to do with the idea that he's not the right guy for the job going forward. The premise behind this thread was whether or not Gardy can develop talent. There's a subthreads here: 1) Once a guy hits the bigs, does he still need to develop? If so, whose job is that? I'd argue "yes" as rarely does one make the big leagues as a finished product. That's a baseball thing too, not a Twins thing (though you can still argue whether or not they could stand to do a better job developing their guys in the minors). As for the second question, I'd say everyone. 2) Is Gardy the best option to manage THIS team under THESE circumstances going forward? It has nothing to do with the talent level of the last 3 years. I get that it was bad. The question is whether or not Gardy is the right guy to man the ship going forward. This is where I really struggle. I see a guy who plays favorites (looking at you Doumit) and routinely throws those who are not one of his guys under the bus on many occasions. I get that I'm not in the clubhouse and that I don't know what is going on, but as a pattern, this is not something that people are just making up. It's been observable since he took over managing, and there's plenty of evidence (albeit circumstantial) that this hampers player's development. 3) Is he willing to sacrifice short term success for the long term development of the team? Again, I say no here. Ryan Doumit's PT is a perfect example of that. While I don't know if Parmelee will ever be an above average player, Gardy's treatment of him really did not answer any of the questions we had. As such, we walk into next season with the same question. In all, I see this as a terrible decision on the part of Terry Ryan.

I see a big reason... options. If they put him on the 40 man, they essentially have to have him in the bigs for good in 3 seasons. Given that he's in A- ball, and didn't exactly do well there, he'd be at best in AA for 2015 and AAA in 2016, his final option year. That makes 2017 a sink or swim year vs. not protecting him for a season and then protecting him next year after completing (hopefully) A+ ball.

I actually think that he could still turn into a front of the rotation guy. I get that the odds of doing this are fairly low at this point, but sometime it takes a while for these lessons to settle in... especially the control. The fact that the walk rate dropped and K rate rose, even slightly is a good sign IMO... and he definitely had his problems with defense and that bad inning. Some of that will improve in the bigs just by having better defenders at most positions. Some I suspect is just mental and not letting the situation get to you.

Honestly I doubt this. There were complements in there. It was honest assessment, and if his psyche is that fragile, I doubt there's much anyone in the org can do to make him better.

What Chance said... Last year's record is the tie breaker.

Agreed, we really won't be able to form an opinion till mid spring. These guys (with Rodon who won't be there at 5) are who I'd be looking at very closely. A 1-2 punch of Stewart/Kolek could be nasty.

There's quite a bit of dead wood to cut and not a ton to add. I was thinking they had maybe 6 guys who should be added at this stage, and they have far more than that to cut.

I guess I should eat some crow. I thought Gardy was as good as gone, and I honestly think he should be gone. I fail to see how he's the right guy to work with these rookies as they come up. He's way too impatient with them and will play his favorites. I don't like this at all.

A lot of ink has been spilled on the abomination of a season that encompassed the Twins 2013 year, and there are certainly differences of opinions as to what should happen next. Looking at the season in the rear view mirror, there were some good things to come from it. The most notable was the emergence of Brian Dozier at 2nd. Behind that was a pen that far exceeded expectations, especially given how bad the starting rotation was. The upcoming season is going to be an interesting one for the Twins. It's theme will largely be a transitional one. Knocking on the door will be Byron Buxton (assuming his impressive pro start continues into AA), Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Josmil Pinto, Michael Tonkin, Logan Darnell, and Eddie Rosario. While a number of these guys won't be ready to start the year, they could all very well be making a case by mid-May, which makes a large scale overhaul of the roster somewhat difficult (and quite possibly not wise). In spite of this, one can be assured that a number of these guys will struggle, much like Arcia, Hicks, and Gibson did this season. Given that, expectations of competing for a division title should probably be put to rest for the time being, 2014 is going to mark the transition of a new core. The final record should be improved, and it's quite possible that team flirts with the .500 mark for the first time in a few years. That said, there's still a lot of unanswered questions. Several players are nearing their last chances. Both Plouffe and Parmelee are going to have to show that their bats are worth something other than continual teasing. Newly acquired Alex Presley is in a similar position, as his recent minor league results have been impressive, but that has not translated into major league success. Like Parmelee and Plouffe, Presley will have 2014 to prove his worth, though he will likely find himself a role as a 4th OF should he fail in what is likely the last chance he's going to be given to earn a starting role on a major league team. If he does well, he may find himself traded again if Hicks and Buxton are both making a case that they are ready. Given his defensive value, Parmelee might find himself in the "Power bat off the bench" role should he fail in 2014. Finally, we get to the garbage. The starting rotation was awful (and that's being nice), and while help looks to be on the way, there's one current member that's sure to be there opening day, and despite the vomit inducing thought, he's likely the opening day starter. Kyle Gibson will also be assured of a spot, even with his struggles. His first season back from Tommy John surgery should be considered mostly successful, even without the major league results. He will have a spot, and given his history, he should be reasonably expected to improve. Beyond that, there's little in the way of immediate help to the worst rotation in the league. With 3 spots open, Vance Worley should also, in my opinion, get another chance. His 2 years in Philly were decent, and despite an abomination of a season in 2013, I think a third spot should be reserved for him. This too will likely be his last chance. This leaves two open spots which will need to be addressed. That said, we now need to come up with a plan. The first stop is coaching. The coaching situation is clearly stale, and the major league ranks in particular seem to be operating a bit too old school. To complicate that, a new wave of rookie prospects is nearing, and finding someone who is good with rookies is paramount. Ron Gardenhire is not that guy. Outside the organization, I'd likely target someone like Tampa Bay's Martinez or Cleveland's pitching coach. Inside the organization, Molitor or Gwynn should be options as well. Outside of the manager, Bobby Cuellar and Tom Brunansky are likely the only coaches I'd keep on the major league staff, and Bruno's leash is relatively short. One big caveat prior to making any moves is the PTBNL in the Morneau trade. The assumption for this post is that it will be Duke Welker as rumored, though there are several intriguing options that could change the organization's overall direction, such as Stolmy Pimentel, who is out of options and may have a difficult time fitting into Pittsburg's plans. Moving on to the pen, it was pretty strong, and with Tonkin knocking on the door along with good performances from Perkins, Theilbar, Burton, Swarzak, Fein, and Duensing, there isn't a ton of room. Given that this is clearly the position of strength, trading from this makes the most sense. It will be further complicated if the 2nd player in the Morneau trade is Duke Welker. Perkins value is the highest so I'd dangle him again this offseason to see if there are any takers, but would only trade him for some very nice help. Ideally, an Allen Webster and Matt Barnes combo from the Red Sox or something like it would likely get my attention. Webster is a top 100 prospect who did very well in AA and Barnes is more of a prospect in the Trevor May role. If a trade like that couldn't be made, I'd still likely deal Burton and/or Fein for some lower level pitching help. Given that several of the AAAA type starters could turn into decent relievers, I'd consider a bullpen trade even if Perkins got traded. The rotation will also need to be addressed. Given the youth trend and the large amounts of money available that could be spent, I think the Twins should go hard after Masahiro Tanka who will be posted this offseason. It will likely be a 40-60M posting to get the job done, plus a 5 or 6 year contract of a similar value. Given that he's 24, I think this type of move makes the most sense for a transitional team, and should he struggle initially, there will be room for patience. I would also target a stronger veteran presence. Phil Hughes would top my list, and he will likely be a free agent without a qualifying offer (I would not offer him a contract if the Yankees gave him an offer). He would be my second major signing, and I'd target a 3 or 4 year deal for him. Despite their poor showing, the position players won't change much in 2014. Locked in are Mauer (as a catcher), Willingham, Presley, Arcia, Doumit, Florimon, and Dozier. Plouffe and Parmelee will also get their last chances, and Colabello will also get another look. Hicks will start the season in AAA, and he will have to earn his next trip back to the major leagues, though I do think he eventually replaces Presley. I would go hard after the Cuban defector Abreau, though I don't think I would get him for the price I'm willing to offer, but since this is my offseason plan, I'm going to say they can get it done for 5/60. Doumit, while locked in, will see much less PT in this scenario, as he's relegated to 2nd catcher and occasional DH/OF play. Along with Willingham, both will be dangled at the trade deadline for anything they can bring back. Given his career, Doumit should be in line for a decent bounce back season, as will Willingham. Both could net something decent in the lower minors. Also of note, if Dozier's success continues, he will likely find himself moving back to SS assuming Rosario continues to impress. While he did well, there's not room for Pinto until Doumit is gone. He's the heir to the 2nd catcher role and should allow Mauer to get more reps at DH/1B/RF or wherever they choose to play him. Pinto could find himself on the ML roster if Ryan can find a buyer for Doumit this offseason, but I highly doubt he gets enough for him. That leaves the following team: C - Mauer 1B - Abreau 2B - Dozier SS - Florimon (until Rosario is ready, at which point Dozier moves back to SS) 3B - Plouffe (until Sano is ready) LF - Willingham (to be replaced by Buxton or Hicks at the trade deadline) CF - Presley (potentially also to be replaced by Buxton or Hicks if both have done well and he is not.) RF - Arcia DH - Parmelee (who will also get reps in at 1B and OF, but will find himself battling with Colabello or Plouffe if he struggles) SP - Tanka, Hughes, Gibson, Correia (this is another potential flip at the deadline), and Worley RP - Swarzak, Theilbar, Duensing, Welker, Burton, and Tonkin CL - Fein (in this scenario, I'd like dangle Fein at the deadline and replace him with Tonkin). BN - Colabello, Masteroni, Escobar, Doumit. Waiting in the wings: Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Meyer, May, Darnell, Pressley and Pinto. Also waiting would hopefully be whomever was acquired for Perkins (Webster/Barnes if we are lucky). Unlike 2013, if the pitching fails, there are some higher upside arms in AAA that could come in and replace them. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if those guys struggle too, that's to be expected. In this scenario, there would also be a bit of a log jam on the mound going forward. This should leave the Twins with some good trading chips should they suddenly find themselves with more good starting pitching than what they have spots for. While I don't see a team that will compete for the central, the rotation improvements along with modest bounce back years from Doumit and Willingham should lead to a team that can flirt with the .500 mark for most of the season.