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diehardtwinsfan

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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan

  1. diehardtwinsfan
    Chih-Wei Hu has to be it for me. He's went from not on lists to someone who will be on them. Tyler Duffey is another.
  2. diehardtwinsfan
    I think this is perception more than reality. I'll speak for myself here. I think Ryan is the right guy for the job right now. I don't think that Gardenhire is the right guy for the job right now. I'm not sure why this team would want to get rid of, to use your example, Plouffe or Gibson (minus being blown away in a trade) at the moment given that both of them are young, cheap, average to above players, and have a pretty good chance of improving. Matter of fact, there aren't many personnel I think should be gotten rid of (though some I think are played too much, some not enough, and some out of position) as the team right now is very young and has a lot of high ceiling talent working its way up. The only ones who are candidates to go aren't going anywhere due to contracts. That's just what it is. So in the end, I'm for Ryan, against Gardy, and for most of the guys currently on the roster, not exactly loyal to Ryan/Gardy and against the other players... maybe that's just me, but I really think this is a perception, not the reality for most of us.
  3. diehardtwinsfan
    I think this sums up a lot of it for me. Right now, the Twins need diferent qualities out of their GM and those qualities are going to change over the next couple of years, and those same needs are going to differ from a team like say Oakland, who is clearly in a win-now mode. I'd say since 2011, they needed someone good at building a farm and schrewd at plucking talent out of other systems for what few major league parts they had. They needed someone who could spot decent 1 year reclamation projects and flip them for useful pieces at the deadline. I'd say for most of those tasks, Ryan was the guy for the job. He definitely does some better than others, but you cannot deny the job he's done overseeing the stocking of the farm since he's taken over. Now that said, those values are going to start changing, and I'm not sure that change is going to play into his strengths. In the shorter term, he's going to have to start dealing with contract extensions (something he's not a fan of) for guys like Dozier, Plouffe, and maybe Arcia. As more guys come up, this need is going to become more pressing. Likewise, he's going to have to start using FA to plug holes where the farm system hasn't provided talent. That also is an area that I think there's good evidence to remain skeptical.
  4. diehardtwinsfan
    ooooooooooooh boy... not one of these threads again Let's try to keep it respectful please, which it has been so far. I know this is hot button topic for people...
  5. diehardtwinsfan
    Walker has looked really good the last couple of months. I hope that's a sign of him getting through some of his contact issues. That kid can be an absolute star if he figures them out.
  6. diehardtwinsfan
    I don't think these are flukes. May will need to make some sort of adjustment which will cause these numbers to normalize. If he cannot, he gets sent down and will be called back up when they think he can. I think that is a more normal scenario than we realize and we tend to simply call that luck. Bottom line is that May is bad with runners on. That could be a mechanical issue with pitching out of the stretch or a mental issue where he tries to do too much... I don't know... bottom line though is that it will have to change.
  7. diehardtwinsfan
    There's probably a ton of reasons for this ranging from poor coaching to the fact baseball is a continual game of adjustments, and that continues into the majors to the fact that they are probably working on other things as well. The other issue as I see it is that the players are already having success at AAA, which makes it more difficult to work on that aspect for no other reason than that they don't see the need. It's one thing to tell them they need to work on something, but when they are destroying AAA pitching, it's harder (I think at least) to develop those better habits b/c their flaws aren't being exposed regularly. Also of note, Arcia and Vargas are pretty young and have been moved through the system quicker... When that happens, you can expect less finished products as they are relying more on their raw talent than on the things they can correct.
  8. diehardtwinsfan
    I guess the real question is how long it's going to take some of these guys to make it up. Off the top of my head, I see real back end potential in Tonkin, Oliveros, Burdi (fast riser), Larson (hopefully a fast riser), Gallant, Reed (another fast riser), and Jones. That doesn't cover for some of the more marginal guys like Achter, Guerrera, and O'Rouke who could be upgrades and are close. Some of these guys already deserve a shot and others are close. While I don't think it would be wise to overhaul the entire thing in one offseason (and 40 man situations should make that doable), I suspect that you are going to see some major turn over in the major league pen over the next two or at most 3 seasons. I wonder if the Twins shop guys like Theilbar and Fein this offseason or if they simply non-tender a few guys like Duensing who are just getting expensive.
  9. diehardtwinsfan
    excellent article. In my college marketing class in the late 90s (in Cleveland, OH, btw), I had to watch a case study video on the Minnesota Twins and their marketing. In this particular case, it emphasized how they were successful in bringing fans to the Metrodome to watch some really bad baseball. As well, I got my first taste on some of the economics of baseball. I know we love TF, but I wonder if things like that tend to make people soft, or just lazy. They now have a beautiful park that can attract fans, and so it makes their jobs a bit easier... and when the job gets easier, people sometimes get sloppy. Bottom line, the marketing group is pretty clearly out of touch. Oh, and I don't think your Civic is a good comparrison. I have a 98 Civic that I still drive. It will it 300k miles later this year and I got 45 mpg on my last fill up. I suppose if you are talking race cars that it might be a good comparrison if it's opponents are a BMW, Porsche, Charger, and a 1970s mustang, but that car is reliable and does what it needs to do. Not sure I'd disrespect my Civic and compare it to what has been on the field the last 4 years.
  10. diehardtwinsfan
    Give credit where it's due... It's the power of the stache...
  11. diehardtwinsfan
    The first 3 are givens. The only thing stopping them is an injury, so Hughes, Gibson, and Nolasco. If Nolasco can rebound, that makes for a quasi-decent front 3, especially if Gibson continues to progress as he has this year. On the flip side, Hughes cannot regress. As for the other two, I think it's two of May, Milone, and Pelfrey to start the year with Meyer supplanting one of them near July. I woudln't be surprised if Ryan tried to shop Milone or Pelfrey this offseason, but I doubt either would get much.
  12. diehardtwinsfan
    I'll hazard a guess on this one, but I think the coaches are having him slow down a bit since he's been a bit wild. That would be my recommendation at least.
  13. diehardtwinsfan
    If that's the point that was being made, then my point for saying what I said was completed missed. Plouffe and Suzukie were among the guys that were listed as someone not to be trusted. Both have been solidly above average for their positions this year. They aren't stars, I get that. They are complementary pieces, even to a contending team... I'd argue that pieces like that are a necessity on a contending team. The potential stars really aren't here yet, and that I think is the biggest problem the Twins face... along with pitching.
  14. diehardtwinsfan
    I think the issue I have is that I'd rather make the big expenditures when the team is a contender needing to fill a hole than to do it now when they aren't a contender. I don't see much positive from this as whatever FA they sign is probably going to be worse (potentially much worse) in 2017/18 and the presence of a contract will essentially hamstring the team from doing anything at that point. I'm not necessarily against it, but I think the idea of going out and getting that ace right now is pretty risky since that ace won't likely be that guy anymore when the team will most need it.
  15. diehardtwinsfan
    Both played their positions better than average. You won't find much in terms of replacements. If you are expecting stars in every spot, I think your expectations need to be reset. The problem this year was pitching, Mauer's poor season, pitching, lack of progression from Arcia, pitching, and really really really bad OF defense. Unfortunately, as I see it, there isn't much that can be done about it. Not much will happen in CF with Buxton coming up. LF could certainly be filled, but I think you wait on that until some of the other pieces establish themselves. You can non-tender milone (I doubt they do, nor should they), and the Twins might be convinced to give up on the last year of Pelfrey, but Nolasco isn't going anywhere. Hughes and Gibson did well. May will get his shot and will likely be much better, as will Meyer at some point.
  16. diehardtwinsfan
    Those K rates are sick. Reed had the lowest at 16k/13IP. Says a lot for the future pen. Kind of hard to give up late leads when no one puts the ball in play.
  17. diehardtwinsfan
    He's been discussed a bit around here. There are a few threads on him. Long and short, he did quite well in rookie ball last year, but was a bit older than you'd like for the league, so not much stock was taken in rookie ball numbers. That said, he's 20 and pretty much dominated Cedar Rapids. He has mid 90s speed as well from what I've read. He's not too old for his current league, but not too young either. I think personally he's a notch below Thorpe and Gonsalves (success in the same league at a younger age), but he's doing well enough that I suspect he's going to be moving up on a lot of boards this offseason.
  18. diehardtwinsfan
    Plouffe and Suzuki werent' the problems this year.
  19. diehardtwinsfan
    I think his problem is primarily mental. This was something that was pointed out about him in AA and something he referenced himself during his season in AAA this year. I suspect the promotion has given him the jitters a bit and he needs to calm down. We may not see the benefits of this until next year when he gets into more of a routine, but I suspect his BABIP will 'normalize' when he stops missing his spots and overthrowing his pitches.
  20. diehardtwinsfan
    I wonder what the going rate is for major league ready pitching that slots more into the 3-5 range. The Twins are going to have a few guys to trade if guys like Duffey, Wheeler, and Rodgers continue to perform. There wont' be room for all of them, and they all will (hopefully) be eclipsed by far better options in Meyer, May, Berrios in the short term and Stewart, Thorpe, Hu, and Gonsalves coming up behind them.
  21. diehardtwinsfan
    It's been brought up in several threads that the Twins defense is pretty bad and affects pitchers negatively. I have to think that's more in the OF than the IF as other than Plouffe (who's much improved), no one is really bad there. The same cannot be said in the OF, and only Arcia is slotted there. CF is a stop gap for Buxton, so I don't see anything other than a 1 year deal, but in LF, if they get someone on a longer deal, I'd probably want a decent defender. Just my 2 cents.
  22. diehardtwinsfan
    Jokin, You are changing the subject again. I don't think anyone here would disagree that the Twins drafting philosophy needed changing, and I think we'd both agree that it has changed over the last couple of years... That said... Call me crazy if you must, but I don't see how the fact that Washington brought up their guys younger is a cause for their current fwar values. Correlation does not equal causation. Strasburg, as an example, was a very highly thought of prospect (drafted 1st overall in 2010) and absolutely dominated the minors in ways Meyer never did. To compare how Washington handled him in comparrison to Meyer comes across as disengenious at best. These are two individuals who produced different results with different expectations. What I find most amusing about it is that Meyer came over from Washington, and the Twins simply continued with the progression that he made during his tenure there. They didn't force him to repeat high A, they put him in AA where Washington would have put him. He started out well and got hurt and missed most of last year. The Twins promoted him in spite of that, at which point he's struggled for most of the season, as well as having to deal with a workload designed to strengthen him long term. I can see the case for him being called up at one point this season (which we obviously disagree on), but at the same time, he came over from Washington, who you are saying we should mimic, and they didn't handle him in this way. It really is quite possible that the front office knows what they are doing here.
  23. diehardtwinsfan
    Injuries happen, and in this case, it's a broken bone, which is probably one of the easier ones to recover from. I guess I don't see the big deal with the lost time in instructionals. He's going to start in CR next year, so he's already pretty well advanced for an HS prospect, and the injury in question really doesn't have long term consequences.
  24. diehardtwinsfan
    Using age as a reason to promote is not a good idea in my opinion. For one, it ignores the reality that Meyer was hurt for a good chunk of last season, and from what I understand, has also had other injury issues in his career. Second, it completely sets aside the concept of readiness. I get that very few people are truly ready in that the can come in and contribute, but if there's still quite a bit of learning that can be done in the minors, I'd think it's in the player and the team's best interest to allow that learning to be done in lower leverage/development type situations. I unerstand that he can be flat out dominant at times. We also saw this year that he's got some serious control issues that plague him at times. He didn't improve on that this season as he stepped up, and I fail to see how a promotion will somehow cure that and not exacerbate an already concerning issue. Third, in this case, it ignores very real workload situations. Berrios successfully pitched 100 innings last year and 140 this year (not counting winter/fall ball, as I don't know what those totals were). Meyer has pitched less. He's an older prospect but is on roughly the same workload restrictions as Berrios, with next year looking at approximately 160-180 innings (assuming of course his inability to get loose isn't something bigger). That sais, I still see Meyer as the better prospect, though not my much as that gap has closed. JO has done nothing but prove doubters wrong at every step, and I'm hoping that trend continues into 2015. If it does, he may find himself in Minnesota by the summer.
  25. diehardtwinsfan
    I'd recommend some caution with your use of absolutes. There are plenty of examples of players who peak in the 27-32 range instead of the 25-27 range, and I'm sure there are many factors to this. The big one I see is that physical peak doesn't necessarily correspond to a players development. While all the necessary physical capacity aspects of the game (strength, coordination, dexterity, etc) have peaked, many of the components that require a mental approach or additional physical tuning may not have. I don't see age as a reason to promote or deny a person. You bring them up when it looks like they can have success at this level.
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