diehardtwinsfan

the dollar broke below it's moving average yesterday and is maintaining that today. If you make short term plays, things like silver, gold, any commodity really, should all see a nice pop while the dollar loses a few points. Might be an easy 10-20% short term ROI. The market could correct down too. Really looks like a top is forming here.

Isn't that what they did? Isn't that why we are at an impasse? I guess the question is what other prospects did they target (or were on the table). It doesn't sound like Stewart, Alvarez, Verdugo, or Bellinger were there... so what other prospects would you take?

No one is saying JDL has no value. No one. They just recognize that there's quite a bit of risk, which like it or not, there is. He's not a sure thing, and he has plenty of question marks. I like JDL. I'd take a package involving JDL and Stewart (I would ask for other pieces there), but that still keeps your pitching depth strong and gives you what you need. Heck, if you needed to offload some bad contract to make it work, I'd be open to that too.

Interesting idea if it can catch on. Not sure what to think to think there. I'm guessing the salaries are a bit too low to make it work. That's roughly 2.5M in salary commitments per team. If that gets any kind of traction, those salaries will be way too low. They'd be wise to simply set the salaries as a percentage of league revenue like the NFL does. That would do more to attract top college talent I would think.

Based on the DodgerBlue reports, there weren't any other legit prospects in the deal. No Alvarez (sorry Dave). No Stewart. No Bellinger. No Verdugo. That equates to a whole lot of risk given the potential reward. To be honest, your reasoning here is why I feel it necessary to caveat my desire to trade Dozier with the "you don't trade him unless a good deal comes along." Dozier for De Leon and spare change is not a good deal. I don't care what his prospect ranking is. He's hardly a sure thing, and plenty of highly ranked prospects bust (see Young, Delmon, who I might add Friedman traded to us). Just look at every other trade that has happened this year. Far more than a single De Leon type player changed hands. I get there's risk on this end, and I get that we need pitching. The Dodgers know full well they are probably the only team negotiating and so they are bluffing. The Twins should (rightfully) call that bluff. LAD won't get Forsyth for De Leon plus change. They might get Kinsler, though there's this small problem of a no trade clause forcing them to extend him, the fact that he's much more expensive now, and the fact that he's a far greater risk to drop off or get hurt than Dozier in which case they are taking on far more risk. If they were that concerned about Dozier's risk, they would be going after Kinsler. The deal as the media is presenting it is absolute garbage. I don't believe Alvarez is on the table for the simple reason that no one else close to the negotiations is reporting it, and LAD has every reason to leak that to someone other than Dave to paint the Twins as unreasonable.

well, so far at least it's unique in terms of sci-fi. Cannot argue with that. Have to admit that after watching a couple episodes that I was impressed.

It's not as simple as trust. They could do all the right things and have all the right people on it, and JDL could bust. That's how pitching prospects in particular work. Then you have the other side of it. If they pull a Bill Smith trade, they are only going to get Bill Smith offers. You've got to say no to a bad deal. That is also a big part in making good, long term moves.

Anyone watching this new Netflix scifi/thriller? Two episodes in and it's pretty good.

cannot say I understand the angst on Gibson. 3 years in the majors guys... last year he was lights out for a long period of time and struggled through injuries this year. Not sure who the real Gibson is, but I don't think that is one to give up on.

I could be wrong here, but weren't you one of the ones being upset about Span for Meyer b/c it was a one for one swap? It's really the same issue here. De Leon + junk is well... junk. Too much risk. I'd keep Dozier in that situation too. I understand that we have a need for more SP, but trading our best asset for one potentially decent SP and a couple of C prospects is the wrong way to do it.

He's an A- now, so I doubt that will be the case when he releases his big list. No question he'd be instantly the top prospect in our system though.

You could potentially do that twice depending on the what you got that top pick for. There's also lots of higher upside HS guys that basically say if they don't get first round money, they are going to college. The top pick doesn't usually sign for slot. Lots of HS type talent could be grabbed through out the entire draft that way. I'm not saying we shouldn't give up the pick if Bautista makes sense, but there is a big down side to it.

My issue with defensive metrics continues to be the problem that they take years to be accurate (or so the creators say)... I'm just very skeptical when you suddenly need a 3 year sample size for a metric to be accurate. These guys will field the ball hundreds (if not more than a thousand) times in a season. If that many data points cannot produce an accurate sample, then I think it's time we rethink how we are calculating them.

Considering they probably consider themselves a fair bet at contention... I'm guessing no. LA can enjoy Chase Utely again at 2nd... or they can pay De Leon and change to the Tigers for the rights to lock up Kinsler long term.... except that change will probably be more than what they wanted to offer us.

I'm sure the Dozier wilts in the big market angle was the one you missed. Goodness.... we absolutely discussed this to death and that's what was released? No, "Dozier is just too streaky for my taste" comments at all? You'd think these guys don't even surf the net. I thought all execs did that.

well if it's done, it's done... when can we lock the thread? I kid of course... sort of. Not sure what to say if LA is out. Friedman likes his prospects I guess. I always assumed they acquired the assets to also get more if needed. They will still be a favorite, but with a gaping hole at 2B that would be much better plugged by BD. Oh well.

This is devious. I like the way you think.

yes it would. That's the downside.

You gotta have faith - George Michael

Me thinks you were reading in the wrong places.... or just mis-remembering. This was published on 8/1/2004. This was published on 7/31/2004. And for fun, here is the game recap for that day. I think there is a lot of assuming going on, especially when it fits the "Twins FO is incompetent" idea that we love to take for granted here (don't get me wrong, they've earned that to an extent)... kind of like what's going on currently with what is or is not on the table with the BD trade. Trades don't work that way. That data is faxed into the league office by the deadline. If there was nothing on it, it would have been a PTBNL or cash considerations. The big gripe coming out of this trade was reports that came out a bit later indicating that the Twins were supposed to get a second prospect from (I believe) the Red Sox.

my bad then... carry on

They were never slated to get nothing. That's not how trades work. Jones was included right away... the big reports that came out the next day was that we were supposed to get a second piece.

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm or a typo or if I'm just completely missing your point. You can get good players in the 2nd round, especially with the first pick. Given that top pick over all in the second round, using it to snag falling talent that is too expensive is a very reasonable option. You lose the pick and the pool allotment that goes with it. To be clear, I said it was a gamble. I'd be fine with that if they are confident they can get more from a mid-season trade... or maybe we get lucky and are competitive... who knows.

This is going to be the top pick in the 2nd round, so if they sign him, I've got to hope that they are very confident he can put in a trade worthy deal and yield more in prospects than the pick would cost. It's a gamble, but not an unreasonable one...

You're going to have to elaborate on this one. Last multi-team trade I remember was sending Dougie Alphabet off for Justin Jones. According to reports at the time, they were supposed to get a second prospect, but no grievance was ever filed.