diehardtwinsfan
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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan
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well said. I agree that nefarious is a bad way to look at it... but they do know their own guys and know them far better than we do. Just like us, they are trying to maximize the value of an asset. But as you rightly note, JDL carries A LOT more risk... so much so that he needs to come over with more.
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well, setting aside short term, I have no complaints about MSFT (full disclosure, I work for them). Share price has gone up about 20% in the two years I've been there. Our cloud solutions are growing at absurd rates right now, and that's a high margin line of business. I own shares in my 401k account, and I haven't sold off any of my vesting shares either. edit: they pay dividends as well.
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Well, with the dollar starting to fall, gold, silver, and really any commodity would make for a decent short term play. Not a bad way to be up 10% or so in a month. Then sell and get something else.
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Forecasting Mauer's Remaining Years
diehardtwinsfan replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To me, the Twins have always needed a decent bat off the bench. That's where a Mauer/Park/Vargas platoon for 1B/DH will consistently leave them with a decent bat off the bench. Mauer isn't the power threat obviously, but a good bet to work the count and get on base. That can be valuable subbing for a weaker hitter in front of some of the power guys. -
Twins/Phillies Open Dominican Academies
diehardtwinsfan replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I've spent my last two vacations in the DR. You wear a Twins hat there and the locals notice. I found that very amusing... -
That's because we all know that losses in April don't matter as much
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I'm not sure I'd call it timing the market. It simply involves paying attention to signals and investing accordingly. Technical trading works, and with pretty good odds. You don't have to time it perfectly, just position yourself when the market starts putting in the red flags. You win far more than you lose, you get in trouble when you try and time the market to maximize profits.
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ESPN: Dozier Ranked 9th-Best 2B in Baseball
diehardtwinsfan replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Given how much Plouffe got in a trade, I'm guessing that's a non starter. If they wanted to showcase him in a position that would increase his value, it would be seeing if he could go back to being a SS. If his defense fell into the 'slightly below average' range, his bat would more than makeup that difference. -
I think the main problem with adding bats is at the end of the day, there aren't many positions we can improve. You have lots of young talent that just needs repetition more than anything else. Catcher was the biggest weakness. We might help the framing aspect of things, for whatever that is actually worth, but Castro isn't a good hitter. The OF needs time mostly. Sano needs time at 3rd. SS didn't have much for options. Escobar is a fine placeholder, and there's decent options in the high minors. 1B could improve, but Mauer isn't going anywhere. So yeah, it's back to the rotation. At least next year there will be some decent FA options there.
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That trade would likely get the Dozier too... or at least in the ball park.
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Forecasting Mauer's Remaining Years
diehardtwinsfan replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I suppose it's possible for him to have a healthy year and post a couple .800 OPS seasons towards the end of his career, but unfortunately, he's really fallen off the proverbial cliff. Wish him well. I hope Molitor is smart enough to play him a bit less going forward, especially with Park and Vargas likely to make the team. That might help keep him fresh. -
yeah, apparently they want to trade for Danny Santana. I hear he can play 2B.
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Hope that's the case. The deal makes way too much sense. Hoping they called around and realized that De Leon and couch change wasn't going to get them Forsyth or Kinsler either.
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Yeah, I'm really wondering where this idea is coming from that TR caved when it came to making trades. He only made them when he got value back, and he wasn't known to make them that often at all. His main criticism (and rightfully so in some cases) was holding out for too much value.
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I guess I'm not seeing how you come to the former in this case. Every time Smith was in a position where he was being forced to make a trade (Santana, Hardy, Garza), he got absolutely raked over the coals. Oh, I forgot Capps... Smith did OK with cost effective pickups during a tight race (Rausch for example), but when he was in a situation like we are with BD, he did the 'take what you can get strategy' and got absolutely nothing. In all of those cases, he would have been better off holding his cards then playing them. I'm not sure the Dozier trade is really any different. Maybe Levi is right and there was far more on the table there and the Twins were being greedy, but based on every press report out there, it's JDL and nothing else special. That is pretty much the definition of a Bill Smith trade. He'd have taken that and that would have been that. A big part of getting value in trades is knowing when to walk away and being willing to do so. I'm disappointed, but truthfully, I'm not surprised. F&L were going to get tested. That may mean failing to trade Dozier, but it also makes real clear to the 29 other GMs that they aren't going to take their scraps.
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Catching Up With Infielder Trey Cabbage
diehardtwinsfan replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
With the exception of the other team, it's kind of sad that there's people like that. Hope the kid proves them wrong. -
He has shown some contact issues in the minors, and even his best seasons tend to have a .270ish type BA... Don't get me wrong, that's pretty good, but it's likely why Pleskoff thinks this. I think a .250-.260 hitter is a pretty reasonable ceiling, and given his walk rates, he should be able to keep his OBP in the .330-.350 range. Add double digit home run power (10-20) and above average defense and you have a pretty solid starting catcher.
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I think you see Castro/Murphy out of the gate unless Murphy is abysmal in ST again this year. Not quite sure what happened there, but he's a better catcher than what he was in MN. As for Garver, a little more AAA seasoning won't be a bad thing, but I've got to think Murphy will be on a short leash. The team won't take 3 Cs north. They could potentially keep Garver as a 3rd catcher on the Rochester shuttle for next year and maybe 2018 (though I'm not liking that). I hope they have a plan to move Castro if Garver and Murphy force it.
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I'm so tired of hypocrisy in politics, and it happens everywhere. This is a great example of it.
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The establishment isn't committed to him, I agree. But I think you underestimate how much of the Reps base is fed up with the establishment. I could just as easily see him torpedoing lots of the GOP establishment during primaries in a couple of years, and honestly, that might work. Pay attention to what he's doing right now. He's working the disgruntled Democratic base in the rust belt, focusing on getting those jobs back that have been lost due to globalization. There is a lot of potential there to see his popularity rise if he is at all successful. Again, the Ford/Chevy thing from a couple weeks ago is a good example of that. He bashes Chevy for sending jobs overseas and within hours, Ford is taking about how they are bringing jobs back into America. They can say all they want these are unrelated, but I don't think Americans are going to see it that way. He's got the leeway to do quite a bit in terms of tariffs, and if he's smart about it, he can force a lot of jobs back into the US. Theatrics aside, he will be very popular if he succeeds. I don't like a lot of what he stands for, but I don't think he's nearly as stupid as everyone around here seems to think.
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Well, I trade options, though I always hedge them to minimize losses. I get what you're saying, and you're right that it can stay irrational longer than solvent. I tend to use ETFs that move inverse the market for some of that. Not as much risk (or reward) in that scenario, which I'm fine with. That's just like buying/selling stocks at that point, except these go up when the market goes down and vice versa. That said, if you do technical trading at all, you can see plenty of signs of a top in the market. That's pretty normal, which I guess is my point. Barring a crash, it just means a temporary 10-20% correction. I'm not saying short the whole thing, but I think there's a ton of merit right now in allocating some spare funds to hedge your long positions and take a quick profit or closing a few winners that are overbought. PS... oil should be in a bubble. There's a huge glut of supply right now and it is not shrinking... I refuse to touch that one.
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Oh I agree. Ryan was the example of a guy who wasn't got to make a move unless he got good value. Probably too much so in some cases. The flip side though is just as bad, if not worse.
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Yeah, I don't think the hesitancy is to appease TR loyalists or anything of the sort. I think it has to do with the fact that TR wasn't the only conservative player out there when it came to dealing talent, and that there was good reason for it. TR made his fair share of mistakes, don't get me wrong, but he had a reputation of wanting value when he made trades, and it's a large part of why this team was competitive during the 2000s. You're right though that the trade needs to happen. The real problem though is if no one gives any real value for BD. If LA is the only bidder and won't offer more than JDL + junk, I'm likely to side with F&L and say keep him. That sets a bad precedent and leaves an enormous amount of risk here, the largest of which is that JDL fails and that valuable asset got us nothing but wasted time.
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Have we forgotten the Bill Smith era already? He did some great things with international signings, but part of the reason this org is where it is right now is due to the talent that got given away for nothing... and he did far more than once.
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Of note, I find it interesting in Stewarts case that there's a lack of mention about some of the other guys in the situation. LA still has DeJong or whatever his name is and guys like McCarthy as well. Even without Stewart and JDL, they are sitting about 8 or so deep for options. Don't get me wrong, Stewart and JDL are certainly better options than some of them, but they are hardly hurting for SP help in that scenario. If that's the concern, then throw in Buehler instead... but again, he's not an option. Shs_59 is right. If a guy like Stewart isn't an option for a second piece, then there's a big problem. Like or not, that problem is JDL + junk.
