diehardtwinsfan

JT Chargois sighting.... Here's to hoping his name can stay in the box scores all year long next year.

I don't see Pelfrey getting traded this offseason as there's always guys like him looking for 1 year deals to reclaim their value. Teams aren't going to give up money and a prospect for that purpose. I could see him being added to irrevocable waivers and given the option to latch on to anyone who claims him for his salary, but I have a feeling he'd remain a Twin and go unclaimed. As for the 2015 rotation, what I want is Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, May, and Meyer. However, I think Meyer is the odd guy out and it will be one of Pelfrey or Millone unless someone gets hurt or Meyer absolutely destroys ST while the other two stink it up. Johnson, Darnell, and Pino stick around as AAA depth and remain on the 40 man for injury callups.

I understand that, but I see it as room for improvement. I also think that a hit is still more valuable than a walk, especially with runners on. I'd agree that the key would be to up the OBP with it, but for a guy with a career minor league average of just under .300, a .230 BA is a bit concerning I think. I also think that if he does a better job putting balls in play for hits, the power numbers may recover a bit too.

I'm more concerned about the average personally. He needs to bring that up. His minor league career says he can, so I'm hoping that next season he can get it into the .250-.260 range while continuing to get on base and hit for some power... That said, I think the Twins should extend him through his arb years and buy out some FA.

Hope it's not age, he's under contract for a while. Kind of praying for dead arm here, though given his career, that's unlikely.

Excellent writeup, agree 100%. 1) Mauer - I think improvement here is possible... even likely given his career. I do agree that he may have to train like he's never trained before to do it, but it is doable and will pay dividends to the offense. 2) Defense - OF defense is horrid. A 1 year stop gap in CF should improve on Santana (who I think belongs at SS). LF is a different situation that's been discussed ad nauseum here. As for Arcia. I'd tell him that if he wants a long term contract, he'd be wise to spend a lot of time this offseason working on his OF defense. He is 23, he should improve naturally and should improve a lot more if he puts in some effort. 3) The rotation is going to require some patience. We wanted FAs last year, so they got them. 2 of the 3 didn't do so well, which is sadly typical. Hughes and Gibson spots are pretty much earned, and I think Gibson will improve a bit. I'm hoping and praying for a bounce back season by Nolasco as well. I expect improvement from May as he's going to be a lot more comfortable pitching every 5 days and think a season somewhat more in line with what Gibson did this year is quite reasonable. In May's case, he misses bats too, so if he gets around the mental issues, he could quickly be an above average pitcher. I think the last spot is going to Millone for now, who the Twins will likely attempt to trade at the deadline (or if he's pitching well and things break right, next offseason) to make room for Meyer. 4) I don't think TF brings quite the same home field advantage that the dome did. I'm not really certain that's on coaching, though the team's construction going forward (with some dead pull hitters) will be beneficial. 5) This will require some coaching changes. I agree, they need to get back to that and have been slowly slipping away from that during the Gardy era.

I think the bulk of the bad defense is showing up in the OF where there are some vacancies as well. I do think Santana needs to go back to SS, even if that means a stint in AAA for him to work on his glovework, but Santana in CF, while showing promise, has been a defensive disaster, as has LF and RF this year as well. Arcia is the only given in the OF, so I think his best perscription is to spend the offseason doing just that. Getting a decent CF on a 1 year deal I think would help, and in LF, the team needs to decide who is going to play there.

I think it depends on a lot of factors. They did the same thing with Walker, and up until the last couple of months, he really struggled making contact in the FSL. Garver has a better approach, but I wouldn't be shocked if he's working more on the defensive aspects of the game. Eitehr way, this was his first full season. If he keeps producing like he did this season, he'll move up pretty quick.

I don't see Jake Mauer managing when his brother is playing... Just me. I'd say Mientkiewicz or Molitor. I'm fine with either one personally.

Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Hu beg to differ.

Well, the guy they drafted had a pretty good year in his first full season. The guys they traded for predictably struggled (which the guy they drafted did too in his first call up). I think, to an extent, expecting instant success (especially from starting pitching) is asking a lot. That's just my 2 cents. I expect May to be much improved next season and Gibson to register a slight improvement as well. My bigger concern is that they signed 3 FAs and only 1 worked out. In reality though, that is pretty normal. Look at last year's FA class. Most were pretty bad. For the Twins, the got one home run (Hughes), an injury (Pelfrey), and an epic fail that will hopefully rebound (Nolasco). The fans were asking for FAs, the FO obliged, and they went after some of the best options. I'm not sure it's worth holding the GM accountable for doing what he was told to do and not defying the odds, especially considering that his primary task is rebuilding, which he is doing quite well. I'll say what I've said before on him... Once the rebuild is done, I'm not sure he's the guy. Right now, I want him at the helm. I won't say that about the current coaching staff.

Ashbury, RB, and I were talking about this a few weeks ago... but I think Escobar's value gets hurt quite a bit if he moves into a utility role. Do you put Santana in AAA and see how he does there, or do you try to figure out a way to ensure Escobar is playing 3 out of every 4 games? I don't think he's going to net a ton in a trade this offseason. I do think that at worst Santana will be the equivalent to what we've had a SS the last few seasons, and at best this season isn't a fluke... Just curious.

Really enjoyed the read. Yeah, I'm not sold on Schaffer either. As a 4th OF, I'm fine with him. He was once top talent, so if he's figured something out, yay Twins, but I highly doubt that. I think he's earned that 4th OF role, but my main concern is Gardy's love for players like him. He will stick with him for far too long. I'm guessing the pitchers love him though, as he's the only above average defensive OF we are carrying. As for SS, the Santana/Escobar thing is going to be interesting this offseason. I'm not sure what value Escobar has in the trade market, I'd imagine that there are enough questions that GMs are going to want to see a repeat performance before they give up something of value for him. But SS is also one of those positions where teams are desperate to find good talent, so who knows. If the Twins could get an above average LF (both offensively and defensively) that is currently blocked, I'd probably pull the trigger. The question at hand is whether or not you can find a way to keep both Santana and Escobar in the lineup while maintaining their value. Santana, from what I understand, is still pretty raw defensively, and while he's been a pleasant surprise, he really needed to be working more games at SS. He's got a lot of the same issues Jose Reyes had when he came up (not saying he will pan out the same way). He's got superior range and gets to far more than most SS, but he rushes sometimes and ends up making costly errors. He needs to be playing SS. I could Santana spending a bit of time in AAA next season to work on defense. That's not to say that he deserves it, but I could see the Twins attempting to maximize Escobar in 2015. If Escobar regresses as some think he will, you call up Santana and make Escobar the utility guy. If he doesn't, he gets traded either at the deadline or in the offseason.

Walker has looked really good the last couple of months. I hope that's a sign of him getting through some of his contact issues. That kid can be an absolute star if he figures them out.

There's probably a ton of reasons for this ranging from poor coaching to the fact baseball is a continual game of adjustments, and that continues into the majors to the fact that they are probably working on other things as well. The other issue as I see it is that the players are already having success at AAA, which makes it more difficult to work on that aspect for no other reason than that they don't see the need. It's one thing to tell them they need to work on something, but when they are destroying AAA pitching, it's harder (I think at least) to develop those better habits b/c their flaws aren't being exposed regularly. Also of note, Arcia and Vargas are pretty young and have been moved through the system quicker... When that happens, you can expect less finished products as they are relying more on their raw talent than on the things they can correct.

I guess the real question is how long it's going to take some of these guys to make it up. Off the top of my head, I see real back end potential in Tonkin, Oliveros, Burdi (fast riser), Larson (hopefully a fast riser), Gallant, Reed (another fast riser), and Jones. That doesn't cover for some of the more marginal guys like Achter, Guerrera, and O'Rouke who could be upgrades and are close. Some of these guys already deserve a shot and others are close. While I don't think it would be wise to overhaul the entire thing in one offseason (and 40 man situations should make that doable), I suspect that you are going to see some major turn over in the major league pen over the next two or at most 3 seasons. I wonder if the Twins shop guys like Theilbar and Fein this offseason or if they simply non-tender a few guys like Duensing who are just getting expensive.

excellent article. In my college marketing class in the late 90s (in Cleveland, OH, btw), I had to watch a case study video on the Minnesota Twins and their marketing. In this particular case, it emphasized how they were successful in bringing fans to the Metrodome to watch some really bad baseball. As well, I got my first taste on some of the economics of baseball. I know we love TF, but I wonder if things like that tend to make people soft, or just lazy. They now have a beautiful park that can attract fans, and so it makes their jobs a bit easier... and when the job gets easier, people sometimes get sloppy. Bottom line, the marketing group is pretty clearly out of touch. Oh, and I don't think your Civic is a good comparrison. I have a 98 Civic that I still drive. It will it 300k miles later this year and I got 45 mpg on my last fill up. I suppose if you are talking race cars that it might be a good comparrison if it's opponents are a BMW, Porsche, Charger, and a 1970s mustang, but that car is reliable and does what it needs to do. Not sure I'd disrespect my Civic and compare it to what has been on the field the last 4 years.

If that's the point that was being made, then my point for saying what I said was completed missed. Plouffe and Suzukie were among the guys that were listed as someone not to be trusted. Both have been solidly above average for their positions this year. They aren't stars, I get that. They are complementary pieces, even to a contending team... I'd argue that pieces like that are a necessity on a contending team. The potential stars really aren't here yet, and that I think is the biggest problem the Twins face... along with pitching.

I think the issue I have is that I'd rather make the big expenditures when the team is a contender needing to fill a hole than to do it now when they aren't a contender. I don't see much positive from this as whatever FA they sign is probably going to be worse (potentially much worse) in 2017/18 and the presence of a contract will essentially hamstring the team from doing anything at that point. I'm not necessarily against it, but I think the idea of going out and getting that ace right now is pretty risky since that ace won't likely be that guy anymore when the team will most need it.

Both played their positions better than average. You won't find much in terms of replacements. If you are expecting stars in every spot, I think your expectations need to be reset. The problem this year was pitching, Mauer's poor season, pitching, lack of progression from Arcia, pitching, and really really really bad OF defense. Unfortunately, as I see it, there isn't much that can be done about it. Not much will happen in CF with Buxton coming up. LF could certainly be filled, but I think you wait on that until some of the other pieces establish themselves. You can non-tender milone (I doubt they do, nor should they), and the Twins might be convinced to give up on the last year of Pelfrey, but Nolasco isn't going anywhere. Hughes and Gibson did well. May will get his shot and will likely be much better, as will Meyer at some point.

Those K rates are sick. Reed had the lowest at 16k/13IP. Says a lot for the future pen. Kind of hard to give up late leads when no one puts the ball in play.

Plouffe and Suzuki werent' the problems this year.

I wonder what the going rate is for major league ready pitching that slots more into the 3-5 range. The Twins are going to have a few guys to trade if guys like Duffey, Wheeler, and Rodgers continue to perform. There wont' be room for all of them, and they all will (hopefully) be eclipsed by far better options in Meyer, May, Berrios in the short term and Stewart, Thorpe, Hu, and Gonsalves coming up behind them.

Jokin, You are changing the subject again. I don't think anyone here would disagree that the Twins drafting philosophy needed changing, and I think we'd both agree that it has changed over the last couple of years... That said... Call me crazy if you must, but I don't see how the fact that Washington brought up their guys younger is a cause for their current fwar values. Correlation does not equal causation. Strasburg, as an example, was a very highly thought of prospect (drafted 1st overall in 2010) and absolutely dominated the minors in ways Meyer never did. To compare how Washington handled him in comparrison to Meyer comes across as disengenious at best. These are two individuals who produced different results with different expectations. What I find most amusing about it is that Meyer came over from Washington, and the Twins simply continued with the progression that he made during his tenure there. They didn't force him to repeat high A, they put him in AA where Washington would have put him. He started out well and got hurt and missed most of last year. The Twins promoted him in spite of that, at which point he's struggled for most of the season, as well as having to deal with a workload designed to strengthen him long term. I can see the case for him being called up at one point this season (which we obviously disagree on), but at the same time, he came over from Washington, who you are saying we should mimic, and they didn't handle him in this way. It really is quite possible that the front office knows what they are doing here.

Using age as a reason to promote is not a good idea in my opinion. For one, it ignores the reality that Meyer was hurt for a good chunk of last season, and from what I understand, has also had other injury issues in his career. Second, it completely sets aside the concept of readiness. I get that very few people are truly ready in that the can come in and contribute, but if there's still quite a bit of learning that can be done in the minors, I'd think it's in the player and the team's best interest to allow that learning to be done in lower leverage/development type situations. I unerstand that he can be flat out dominant at times. We also saw this year that he's got some serious control issues that plague him at times. He didn't improve on that this season as he stepped up, and I fail to see how a promotion will somehow cure that and not exacerbate an already concerning issue. Third, in this case, it ignores very real workload situations. Berrios successfully pitched 100 innings last year and 140 this year (not counting winter/fall ball, as I don't know what those totals were). Meyer has pitched less. He's an older prospect but is on roughly the same workload restrictions as Berrios, with next year looking at approximately 160-180 innings (assuming of course his inability to get loose isn't something bigger). That sais, I still see Meyer as the better prospect, though not my much as that gap has closed. JO has done nothing but prove doubters wrong at every step, and I'm hoping that trend continues into 2015. If it does, he may find himself in Minnesota by the summer.