chpettit19

But Kiermaier is an elite defender in CF while Castro isn't. Kiermaier is a safer player, in my opinion.

Totally fair. Kiermaier is not an exciting sign at all. But I'd like our chances of winning more games better with him in CF on opening day than any of their internal options not named Buxton. And I'm not so worried about his cost because, while I wish they'd go sign a veteran frontline starter (Yamamoto and Nola being my 2 favorite options) I don't expect them to do that at all. And I think they have super reasonable ways to open more money if it's really needed (Farmer, Polanco, Kepler moves being the most obvious). Signing KK won't have me staking out my spot on the WS parade route, but I think he wins you more games than a Martin/Castro tag team to start the year which makes him an intriguing option while not being someone I'm jumping to sign today.

Yeah, we just differ on what the scales look like in weighing that risk. Martin may be adequate defensively while completely inadequate offensively. And he's got his own injury history. He missed time in 2022 and only played 67 games in '23. I assume you're planning to start Martin because you think he'd be the best option "already in the system," so "can always play somebody else" isn't an encouraging phrase when we're hoping to see the team improve and not take a step back. I think Martin is a very reasonable 1st OF option in AAA to start the year. But, in my opinion, he's a way bigger risk as your primary MLB CFer to start '24 than Kiermaier.

Definitely not the worst laid plan we've ever seen the Twins come up with. I wouldn't be flipping tables in anger if they go with that move, but there's certainly risk in it. We're at the "hope" stage of the baseball calendar. It's intesified even more than usual after we saw Lewis, Julien, and Wallner have so much success this last season. Not all of these young guys are going to succeed. Lewis, Julien, and Wallner aren't even established guys yet as the 2nd year always brings adjustments and not every guy can make them. Going into 2024 relying on Buxton health, and a whole bunch of young guys establishing themselves is a very risky proposition for a team looking to take a step forward in the playoffs, not backwards. They won 87 games, not 107. I'd like to see some more veterans brought in even if it makes people mad that the young guys have to wait for their shots a little longer.

Sonny Gray was actually a 2 time All-Star when they traded for him. Side note to everyone: I've helped this along, but we've kind of gotten off track with a couple of these posts. This thread is about Kiermaier primarily, and CF secondarily. Let's get off the pitching topic. Sorry for my part in leading us off track here, but let's get it back to the topic of the thread. Thanks.

How confident are you that he can maintain a league average bat and isn't actually 2021 and 2022 Castro? I'm not saying the Twins need to bend over backwards for Kiermaier by any means, but their other options are not exactly sure things, and there's plenty of risk relying on the Gordon, Martin, Castro, Buxton crowd.

That's a "win now" package with very low upside for the future which makes it hard to thread that needle. Not many teams in win now mode looking to trade frontline starting pitching. Miami, Seattle, and Milwaukee are probably your 3 most likely destinations for a package like that. Really hard to judge what Polanco's value is right now. But he'd be the key, I think.

Martin can't touch Kiermaier defensively. If Martin can't actually hit major league pitching his availability isn't all that important. And if you rely on him from the jump who's your Plan B if Martin can't cut it? Feels like a whole lot of risk.

For sure, but not spending the money now doesn't guarantee that you have someone worthy of that money in the future. There's risk on both sides of it. Assuming the ultimate goal is to win the World Series. Every move and non-move come with risk. I think the cost for what you're talking about (young, lots of Ks, nasty stuff) is incredibly high in terms of trade cost. You are describing the most sought after commodity in baseball. You're either giving up Lee, Jenkins, ERod, or Lewis, or you're finding a team in win now mode that is overloaded with pitching and is willing to take lesser prospects along with established major leaguers. That's not an easy needle to thread. And I don't think the Twins offense is good enough as it is, so I'm rather lukewarm on the idea of trading from an already thin lineup to add to the pitching. I'd also prefer Yamamoto, but not betting on a 31-year-old decent but not great pitcher is just as risky as betting on a whole bunch of mid-20s prospects becoming decent but not great pitchers. The Twins need a #1 or 2 starter moving forward. Risking $25 mil a year for 5 years is no more risky than trading a massive package for a young guy who isn't there yet and hoping that guy, or one of your in house guys, step up to become a #1 or 2. We know Nola, Montgomery, etc. can be those guys. We know they can start playoff games and dominate. We don't know that about any of their internal guys (outside Lopez), and simply hoping they can do it is not less risky than paying a FA to be able to maintain. Even if the FA only gets you 2 or 3 years, that's at least 2 or 3 more years that you can work to fill that role internally. I don't expect a big money pitcher, but I think people overestimate the trade route and what that does to the team overall. Giving up another Luis Arraez type package is not easy for this offense to overcome.

I certainly don't expect anything big, but I think we oversell how risk averse they need to be with big contracts, and undersell the risk involved with being so risk averse to those big deals. Not that that's what you're doing, but in general there's a lot of people around twins territory that are terrified of big deals and how they're going to ruin everything. The fact is that you need to have some big contracts to have sustainable winning. Just relying on your system to produce not just major leaguers, but above average, and star, major leaguers isn't a winning formula. At some point you need to take big contract risks. And the Twins have started to do that. But they still have fans who complain about it. Spreading the money around isn't actually a great idea. Yamamoto would be my target as well. Young guy with electric stuff and has pitched, and dominated, on the biggest stages already. But I'm less nervous about the 30 year mark than others. At least when it comes to top of the line talent. 35 is the age I get nervous at. And that's why I'm not a fan of a multi-year deal for Gray. I just hope they don't diminish the offense too much by trading for another starter, or go after a less than top of the line starter to replace Gray. We'll see, though.

I think it's all very much a pick your poison thing, but trading for a guy you hope blossoms like Lopez is still a massive risk. And he's going to be making 21.5 a year after next year so it's not like he's cheap. And they gave him that deal at the end of April when he'd made 6 starts and had a 4.00 ERA. It's not like he was some sure fire guy who had a long track record of success. Royce Lewis isn't FA eligible for another 5 years. A 5 or 6 year deal isn't stopping his extension, especially because both Correa and Buxton's money is off the books at that point as well. The Twins really don't have any extension concerns right now unless they're trying to do an early extension for big dollars on one of their young guys, and I doubt that's the plan. They have a 5 year window where they can spend on another big name guy since Kepler, Polanco, and Vazquez money coming off the books, plus slightly increasing payrolls, will cover most, if not all, of the arb raises for their young guys before the big money deals come off the books.

I think Kiermaier would make a lot of sense here. Primary CFer against righties with Buxton playing against lefties, and some righties. When Buxton goes down Martin gets his shot to fill that Buxton role. Kiermaier hitting in the 9 hole doesn't kill the offense. It's a little tough on days when Vazquez and him both start, but if they give Jeffers 60+% of the starts behind the plate you can definitely survive with a weaker hitting, defensive specialist in CF. Not an exciting move by any means, but I wouldn't be upset with this kind of signing.

Yeah, I was just countering the 50k idea. It would only cost the other team 50k to draft him and then give him back before the season started without ever having to use that 26-man spot on him. But they aren't going to carry Sabato during the offseason on their 40-man roster while they're trying to make other moves. They aren't going to DFA someone else, or not sign someone, in order to keep someone like Sabato on the 40-man all offseason. That 40-man spot over the winter is the bigger bet than the 50k. I very much hope Sabato figures it out. But I very much hope every prospect in every org makes it. Why wouldn't I? We all wish we could have the chance to make our baseball dreams come true, so I hope all those kids make their dreams come true. But Sabato is nowhere near figuring it out, and I don't see why a team would take him in the Rule 5. We tend to freak out a lot over the Rule 5, and who the Twins should protect, and how they're going to lose half a dozen guys every year. The truth is the Rule 5 just isn't that big of a deal. A few guys here and there end up being nice picks, but in the long run you really just don't lose much talent that way. And no team is losing half a dozen guys in a season like some posters fear will happen to the Twins each year.

I understand what the 50k is in reference to, but I'm saying that's not what the team would feel they were betting, they would feel giving that "fixer upper" a 40-man spot was the bigger bet. They don't care about the 50k, I agree. But they do care about locking up a 40-man spot with someone like Sabato. Every team has a "fixer upper" in their system already. He's not unique. As I stated before, the Twins had 10 other guys on their AA team out perform him last year. They are all "fixer uppers" at this point as well since none of them are going to be on the Twins roster to start this year. David Banuelos is also rule 5 eligible. Also spent time at AA with Sabato this year. He struck out 38.2% of the time compared to Sabato's 32.3%. But he hit .270/.369/.526 compared to Sabato's .221/.329/.430. He had a 133 wRC+ to Sabato's 100. I don't even have to leave the Twins AA team to find a better "fixer upper" candidate. Sabato is not a likely rule 5 pick.

The money isn't the bet, the 40-man spot is the bet other teams would have to be willing to make. I don't know what all the bottom feeder teams 40-man's look like, but taking a guy like Sabato and locking up a 40-man spot with him is the much bigger bet than the 50k. There's only about 15 guys who get picked in the rule 5 most years. And most guys are pitchers teams want to try as relievers to start the year. I'll be pretty surprised if someone takes Sabato. He had a 100 wRC+ in AA this year as a 24 year old. That was good for 11th best on that team. For reference, the only 1B taken in last year's rule 5 draft was Ryan Noda (only 1 other position player taken). He had a 120 wRC+ in AAA the previous season. Sabato had a .759 OPS in AA while Noda had an .870 OPS in AAA. Sabato is not a likely target in the rule 5.

Buxton as DH only was a disaster this year. I certainly hope they have no intention of repeating that. I don't expect him to be a fulltime CFer by any means, but they also can't let him monopolize the DH spot if he's terrible again.

@Nick Nelson I believe the Twins have 5 days to extend the offer after the WS then the player has 10 to decide on it.

That is fair. I would assume that. The owners actually encourage it by claiming to be losing money all the time. When billionaires complain to the "regular folk" whom they're asking to pay ever rising ticket fees, cable fees, streaming fees, concession prices, parking prices, merch prices, and the list goes on and on while the billionaire's watch their team's values skyrocket what do you think is going to happen? Human nature.

The Twins are around 100 mil in payroll right now. That's 50 mil lower than their 2023 payroll. 2025 1st year arb eligible players: Lewis, Duran, Ryan, Ober, Jax, Stewart, Larnach 2026 1st year arb eligible players: Miranda, Sands, Winder, Moran 2027 1st year arb eligible players: Julien, Wallner, Varland I see 4 guys they need to worry about getting expensive in 2-3 years (Lewis, Duran, Ryan, Ober). 1 guy who will get paid a little, but nothing crazy (Jax). A guy who won't get paid much at all (Stewart). And a guy who's more likely to not even be on the roster after he runs out of options in 2024 (Larnach). None of the other guys people are worried about even hit arbitration until 2027. By 2027 you've cleared Kepler, Polanco, and Vazquez's money. You've cleared Paddack's money. You're in the last year of Lopez's money, and 2nd to last year of Correa and Buxton (who may retire before then for all we know) money. Kepler, Polanco, and Vazquez clear 30+ mil alone by 2026. So they have the 50 mil they're short right now, plus 30 mil from those 3, 6ish from Farmer, 3ish from Thielbar, whatever Castro is going to get in arbitration the next 2 years, 7.5 from Paddack in 2 years, 3 from Dobnak in 2 years. Everyone on that 2025 list better turn into absolute superstars if you're going to need all that money to cover them. The Twins have money to spend. If you have 9+ guys on your roster in pre-arb and arb years, and fans are actually hoping to bump that number up with the likes of Lee, Martin, Severino, etc. in the next year+ you have money. Only way you have a roster half full of pre-arb and arb players that gets expensive is if you have the next murderers row. Alex Kirilloff and Ryan Jeffers are the only young guys on this roster that is set to hit free agency before a 5 year contract is up. And at that point you have Lopez, Correa, Buxton, and FA X's deals all coming off the books. There'll be money to then extend whichever of the young guys prove worthy while you let the next wave (that you've now had 5 years to develop) back fill for the current guys. The Twins have money to spend.

Twins are going to get paid to broadcast baseball games in 2024 so we do know money will be there. I can't say agree with your stance on all those guys, but I do appreciate the well thought out reasoning for it, and reasonable minds can disagree on these things. I appreciate the back and forth. I don't expect the Twins to sign anyone on this list, but I do think their window is opening and I'm going to be very disappointed if they don't make some real strides in improving the front of the rotation and/or top of the lineup from how they stand today. Hopefully we're in for an exciting offseason that can give us real hope for the team taking another step towards truly contending for a title!

Not sure that's a great example of bias towards "articles on the most profitable teams." It's actually the first type of article you mentioned and it just estimates the profits of every team. And it doesn't even link to any explanation of the numbers. It's really not an article at all, it's just a slideshow with pictures of all 30 teams and made up profit numbers.

Keller is an intriguing arm. Especially because Pittsburgh has been known for being a little behind the times in terms of pitching development recently so there's always a thought you can get more out of their guys with a tweak or two. Why wouldn't you want to spend money on the rest? Where else would you spend the money?

Do you think the average fan knows who Mark Vientos is? How is that a useful comparison when nobody knows who he is? You appear to be taking comparisons far too literally. If I say someone is a Joey Gallo type hitter the idea isn't that you go look up his stats and expect him to produce those exact stats at those exact ages. The idea is that you understand he's a 3 true outcome slugger who's going to walk a bunch, K a bunch, and hit HRs a bunch. If I say someone is a Juan Soto type hitter the idea isn't that you go look up his stats and expect him to produce those exact stats at those exact ages. The idea is that you understand he's got an incredibly high walk rate, with incredibly low chase rates, and is a great all around hitter. When you say someone is a Mark Vientos hitter 99% of baseball fans take absolutely nothing away from it because they've never even heard of him. Not a place for us to get into this debate so I'll leave it at that. I'm sorry I used well known players as comps.

I don't understand the point of pointing out those ages. We're talking about types of players. And we're not talking about an out of nowhere 28 year old, he'll be 21 next year and has every opportunity to debut as a 21 year old. That's plenty early enough to be a star type player. "Well Soto was up at 19" doesn't carry any weight to me in this conversation. He exhibits those types of talents, and could be an elite hitter if it all comes together. It coming together at 21 or 22 instead of 19 isn't a big deal at all. Soto and Gallo were just examples of the different types of players that can come out of extreme walks with power profiles. I do agree with the idea that waiting for another year to make a decision is actually making the decision now. Either his value will skyrocket and you wouldn't be trading him, or it goes down and you've lost your window. Same argument gets made about extending pre-arb players. People want to wait to see if they establish themselves or not, but then you've lost your ability to get them for cheaper which is the entire point of doing the extension earlier. I wouldn't be shopping ERod, but if the right deal came along I'd move him.

Yeah, I'd much rather sign a free agent who's shown they can pitch at the front of a rotation than trade anyone for a guy they hope they can unlock just to save a few bucks. Why are we looking to not spend on a frontline pitcher? Where else should that money go? What's a better use of their payroll dollars for the next 3-5 years than adding a frontline starter? Lee has to hit to be playable, too. Lewis has to hit for more than 76 games (I've been calling Lewis a star for years, but he's not established at all). Kirilloff has to stay healthy for a whole season (Julien could move to 1B if he needs to). I don't see the positional logjam because it's not a logjam until all the guys up for that spot are established. And there's still the DH spot to cycle them through. Donovan Solano got 450 PAs last year. I'm not seeing a logjam anywhere. Joey Gallo got 47 games and 139 PAs at 1B.