John Bonnes

If you didn’t stay up last night to watch the ninth inning of the Twins blowout 13-6 win over the Texas Rangers (hey, we’re not judging), you missed a little in-game drama. Jake Cave hit a 3-0 pitch for a single, violating an unwritten rule in a blowout win, and teammate Max Kepler paid the price. Tom Froemming documented the video and radio calls of the play for us on Twitter: It’s an interesting sequence. As color commentator Roy Smalley noted, there is no way Twins manager Rocco Baldelli gave Cave the green light on that pitch. It looks like first base coach Tommy Watkins said something to Cave when he reached first base, and Cave immediately seems to gesture towards the pitcher that he is sorry, and made a mistake. The Rangers pitcher (to his credit, I suppose?) threw the pitch at rib level at Kepler, but it was a 93 mph fastball. Hopefully this act of vengeance puts an end to any ill-will regarding Cave’s brain cramp. (And I hope Cave bought Kepler a big steak, possibly to soak on top of the bruise.) I’d sure love to hear what everyone thinks of the unwritten rule, and the apparent retaliation. Would your opinion be any different if a Twins pitcher was the retaliating pitcher? Click here to view the article

Stare Into The Void. Ah, nothingness. ....

It is probably time for the Twins to consider benching C.J. Cron. Cron has been a far cry from the good player he was in the first half of the year. Since the calendar flipped over to July, Cron has hit just .209/.284/.358 and he hasn’t looked good defensively at first base. On the year he has really struggled against right-handed pitching with a .698 OPS and only an 80 wRC+ (while annihilating lefties to the tune of a 1.063 OPS and 167 wRC+). Cron has been worth just .3 fWAR this season and his wRC+ is 104, meaning he’s about a league-average hitter while playing a position that should produce more offensively. His defense has been below average (-2.7 UZR) and as we are all well aware, Cron doesn’t provide any value as a baserunner (-3 BsR).Part of Cron’s decline could certainly be attributed to the thumb injury he suffered in early July which has landed him on the 10-day IL twice. His offensive numbers have been way down and Cron has hit more ground balls and fly balls than line drives, which seemed to power his first half surge. His line drive percent has gone down from 24.3% in the first half to 17.5% since. Cron has also seemed to have had trouble catching up with fastballs of late. He has whiffed on nearly 35% of fastballs so far in August. Whether watching Cron play or looking at the numbers, it is becoming abundantly clear that he should not be an everyday player at this point in the season. This begs the question of whether there is a better player to trot out to first base. In actuality, there may be several. As referenced in the opening paragraph, Cron has hit lefties very well, so he should continue to see playing time when the Twins face left-handed pitching. But the majority of MLB starting pitchers are righties and we have seen that Cron shouldn’t be in the lineup in this scenario. However, Minnesota doesn’t really have any left-handed options to platoon with Cron, as the best 1B options appear to be either right-handed hitters in Miguel Sano and Mitch Garver, or switch hitters who hit better against lefties in Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza. Technically, left-hand hitting catcher Jason Castro played about 11 innings of first base when he was with the Astros, but he seems unlikely to play first at this point. The Twins could also get aggressive and call up left-handed AA OF/1B top-prospect Alex Kirilloff, but that would start his service-time clock and coming up and playing a big role in such a crucial stretch of games is asking a lot from the 21-year-old. Of the players already on the 25-man roster, Sano seems to be the best option to slide over to first. Sano is a below average defender at third and his long-term home will most likely be at first base anyway. If the Twins non-tender Cron after this season, Sano is probably the most likely internal option to take over at first, so he could gain additional experience now and the Twins would get an extended look as well. Sano certainly seems to enjoy hitting as a first baseman. In an admittedly small sample size (seven games), Sano has hit .360/.448/.720, good for a 200 wRC+. For what it’s worth, Sano’s defense at first has also rated better than Cron’s (again -small sample size). Sano’s splits against righties are also significantly better than Cron’s (112 wRC+ vs. 80 wRC+). For the time being, this would mean that Ehire Adrianza would get more playing time at third with Marwin Gonzalez currently splitting time in right field with Jake Cave. Once Buxton comes back, the Twins would have the luxury of using Gonzalez more at third, where he rates the best defensively this season. However, Adrianza has hit righties pretty well this year (107 wRC+ compared to Gonzalez’s 83 wRC+), and although his defensive numbers at third haven’t been great so far in 2019 (SSS), his career numbers are better than Sano’s. Of course, the Twins could also get Mitch Garver some playing time at first. The Twins have been getting Garver more starts at catcher of late, but playing him at first would be a nice way to utilize his potent bat. Garver has destroyed lefties (1.147 OPS, 189 wRC+), but like Adrianza and Sano, he has been much better than Cron against righties as well (.864 OPS, 119 wRC+). Garver has hardly played any first base this year, but he has played the position in the past. Any or some combination of the previously mentioned players would offer an immediate upgrade over Cron. The Twins have an opportunity to not only improve offensively by getting Cron’s bat out of the lineup against righties, but also to improve defensively by getting Sano off of third more often. Cron could still play against lefties (and pinch hit) and the extra rest might be good for his thumb if it is still bothering him. Benching Cron also gives the Twins a chance to get Garver’s bat into the lineup more often and to get Adrianza, who has played very well in limited opportunities, more time on the field. Finally, once Buxton comes back, playing Cron less will allow Minnesota to continue getting Gonzalez in the lineup. So what do you think? Should the Twins continue to roll with Cron? If not, which combination of players do you prefer to play in Cron’s place? Click here to view the article

Check Game Scores And See How Many Other Teams Bullpens Stink. I specifically recommend the Cubs:https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1162189103192035330?s=20

Aaron and John talk about a bad week at Target Field dragging the Twins into a tie with the Indians atop the AL Central, Nelson Cruz's ruptured wrist being good news somehow, the lineup setting all kinds of home run records, the wheels coming off the starting rotation, and Taylor Rogers running on fumes. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about what can or can't be done to prevent more Byron Buxton injuries, Sam Dyson's post-deadline implosion and injury, Devin Smeltzer making a case to stick around, our crushes on Nelson Cruz, the biggest week of games at Target Field since 2010, and blogging, fantasy, and gambling. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

Just talked about this on the podcast, but I'll ask it here: did the Twins get the best reliever of anyone traded at the deadline? I think I'd put Dyson over Shane Greene, though it's debatable. But is there anyone else I'm missing?

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' trade for reliever Sergio Romo, what's next between now and the trade deadline, recovering from the Yankees by beating up the White Sox, resetting the AL Central race, Byron Buxton's triumphant return, Nelson Cruz's three-homer game, and losing faith in the Twins' rotation. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article

He’s a starting pitcher with outstanding underlying numbers that are disguised by pitching in a tough home ballpark. He’s signed to a reasonable deal that keeps him under team control through 2021. He’s recently been made available on the trade market, and I can report that the Twins are “very serious” about him as a potential low-cost addition. But would the Twins really consider trading for Lance Lynn?Lynn, of course, pitched for the Twins last year, and disappointed Twins fans and the organization with a 5.10 ERA. He seemed unwilling or unable to throw strikes. But immediately upon being traded to the Yankees, his control returned as he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 2.17 FIP. Over the offseason, the 32-year-old signed a three-year $30M deal with the Rangers, and has posted a 3.93 ERA and a 3.00 FIP while pitching in one of MLB’s tougher parks. That’s good for an ERA+ of 129. That’s a better ERA+ than any of the Twins pitchers other than Jose Berrios. That’s a lower FIP than anyone on the Twins staff. And he’s thrown more innings than anyone in the Twins rotation, too. This is not the Lance Lynn you remember. But, geez, just try to forget. Those first pitches out of the zone. The nibbling. The early exits. The dour demeanor…. There’s no indication that Lynn is anything more than another option the Twins are considering, but given his history, that is news all by itself. Lynn hasn’t been a talked-about option in the Twins Daily forums, while teammate Mike Minor absolutely is. But Lynn clearly should be. The situation around Lynn was not that different than it was for Ryan Pressly. He was moved in a trade deadline deal, and thrived with his new team. Over the offseason he got a multi-year deal and continues to produce at a high level. But the expectations and narrative around them is totally different. Pressly, who didn’t have much in the way of expectations, is viewed as an organizational failing. The Astros convinced him to do something that the Twins didn’t and turned him into an outstanding trade deadline addition. Lynn, however, had all kinds of expectations, and his performance is viewed as a personal, not organizational, failing. He was angry about his contract. He didn’t want to be here. He was unwilling to throw strikes. But what If those narratives are incomplete? Or what if they don’t really matter? The simple reality would be that the Twins could acquire a solid #2 starter under contract for 2021, whose only blemish is that he had a rough few months under the old coaching staff. Breaking news: a lot of the Twins starting pitchers had a rough few months under the old coaching staff. Do the optics matter here? For how long? If Lynn is the only starting pitcher the Twins acquire at the deadline, from a public relations perspective, they’ll be torn to shreds. It will be worse than if they don’t add any starting pitching at all. Lynn will need to be even better than he has been in Arlington (which should be possible, given the difference in ballparks) to eventually erase that narrative. Hopefully, the reality would eventually overcome the perception. The Twins, who we pride as increasingly analytical, might have this one right. Twins Territory (and Twins Daily), who we pride as passionate, might be challenged to take a more objective look. Click here to view the article

Not a bad prediction. The Yankees did outlast the Twins and their bullpen was the difference. But neither was particularly strong.

Aaron and John talk about the Indians closing the gap on the Twins, the lineup's frustrating lack of clutch hits, wholesale changes in the bullpen, Marcus Stroman rumors and other trade deadline speculation, Rocco Baldelli micro-managing when things get tense, and the boys from ByeGoff.com discussing an umpire's lawsuit against MLB. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Want more Twins talk? Subscribe to our midweek "Off The Record" episodes via Patreon.com/Gleeman. Click here to view the article

Hey. I just changed the headline, and I wanted to explain why. Apparently Skor North has been using a "Twins Trade Rumor Roundup" as a series, and I didn't realize. So now we'll go with "Twins Trade Rumor Recap." Sorry Derek!

Lol. Fixed. I can reread my work five times and still miss obvious stuff. It's like a superpower.

The rumor mill has been pretty dry lately, so Bob Nightengale’s recent story with trade talk rumors was a tall glass of water. The revelations in the story are related to the lack of news: it turns out there are a number of teams that are still trying to decide if they are selling or buying. Or perhaps whether they can get away with selling when their fans want them to be buying.Fans (and in some cases, ownership) look at standings, not playoff odds reports. For a lot of these teams, the standings suggest their team is still in a race for a couple of Wild Card spots, while the math suggests they're a pretty significant longshot. On a regular basis, Twins Daily curates MLB's trade deadline rumors to determine what they mean for the Minnesota Twins. The Texas Rangers are a good example. They weren’t supposed to be competitive this year, but are just five games back of the American League Wild Card. But that also mean they are one of six teams chasing two Wild Card spots, and they’re the second worst one. Plus, while they’re four games above .500, they’ve been outscored on the year. So playoff odds reports have them at a 1-2% chance of making the playoffs. That’s important to the Twins because the Rangers have one of the few starting pitchers available that could upgrade the Twins rotation, Mike Minor. “Well, publicly, they are telling teams they can’t trade Minor as long as they’re in the race, but privately, they know his trade value will never be higher,” writes Nightengale. He says they’ll strongly consider moving him if they slip further back in the Wild Card race – and they face the Astros this weekend. If they do start selling, they also have several relievers that would interest the Twins. Chris Martin has been a reliable right-handed setup man who will be a free agent at the end of the year. Shawn Kelley is their closer, but is really more of a setup arm, who has a $2.5M option next year. Jose LeClerc is a young arm who dominated last year, lost the closer job, but is still doing good work and under contract through 2022 with team option years through 2024. That adds a lot of talent to the shopping mart. Nightengale also mentions Kirby Yates, about whom the Twins have inquired. Nightengale reports that the Padres “certainly are listening.” Yates is one of the few relievers who could be an upgrade on Taylor Rogers, and is under team control next year, too. But will the Padres want to sell? They’ve also had a surprising year, and are just three games back of the National League Wild Card spot. But just about everyone in the NL is within five games, so the playoff odds reports gives the Padres just a 4-7% chance of making the playoffs. They face the Cubs this weekend, and a slide might be the excuse management needs to set themselves up for a more realistic chance in 2020 or 2021. The biggest surprise potential seller in Nightengale’s story was the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are just a half game back of the last NL Wild Card spot. Playoff odds reports give them a 20-40% chance of making the playoffs, but Nightengale says “privately, they want to sell.” They have several players that would make sense for the Twins, starting with starting pitchers Zach Greinke (whose salary they would love to shed) and Robbie Ray, who new Twins Daily writer Copper Carlson profiled yesterday. But they also have relievers that make sense, like closer Greg Holland, who will be a free agent at the end of the year. Finally, Nightengale also reported that the owner of the Cincinnati Reds, who currently have the second worst record in the National League, wants to stay in the race as long as possible. Considering they have several impending free agents and 4-9% chance of making the playoffs, pressure should increase to change that attitude. The Reds have several names that make sense for the Twins. Carlson’s story also talks about Reds starter Sonny Gray, left-handed reliever Amir Garret will soon return from the IL, and closer Raisel Iglesias is under contract through 2021. So while the waiting is frustrating, it’s probably working in the Twins favor. A lot of these teams are going to be facing some ugly realities in the next two weeks, and the market for buyers could be considerably better than it is today. Click here to view the article

Would the Cleveland Indians, who currently hold the last Wild Card spot and are just five games behind the Twins, really trade away their ace pitcher Trevor Bauer at the trade deadline? Based on a conversation with Indians GM Zack Meisel … maybe? Meisel seems to be taking a pretty big picture view of Cleveland’s competitive window, with an eye at wedging it open regardless of cost.This offseason the Indians cut substantial payroll and discussed trading Bauer or fellow ace Cory Kluber to bolster their club in other areas. When the GM talks about “future sustainability” and a “continuation of the offseason plan” it suggests he is trying to walk a tightrope. We still haven’t heard of any ace pitchers (short of Madison Bumgarner, if you still consider him one) definitively being available, so it’s possible trading Bauer could net the Indians a little help this year and some prospects for future years. It’s also possible that the Cleveland could backfill his spot with a capable, if inferior, arm for a lot less and count on Kluber coming back to lead the rotation. Bauer (3.65 ERA, 160K in 138 IP) is probably one of the top five pitchers in the American League, and he’s under team control for 2020, though arbitration will probably cost that team around $20M. The Twins would certainly be interested in those numbers, but an interdivisional trade like that is exceedingly rare because the high-level prospect can hurt his former team (and management team) so much. It’s one thing to trade Alex Kirilloff to the Dodgers. It’s another to face him 19 times per year for the next seven years. But he could go to another competing team, which might eliminate them from chasing Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard or Zach Greinke. It would be a fine line to walk. Depending on which playoff odds report you look at, even after closing the gap on the Twins, the Indians only have a 10-20% chance of winning the division. But they have about a 50% chance of making the playoffs, which jibes with what the MLB Standings say: that there are four teams chasing two Wild Card spots. It's more likely Meisel will play it safe, add a little help, and explore trading Bauer in the offseason. Left-handed Relief Rumors Two left-handed relievers showed up in the rumor mill over the last 24 hours, and both look like they’re increasingly available. The Dodgers are reportedly interested in Jake Diekman, the 32-year-old Royals reliever, per Jerry Flanagan of MLB.com. The Royals have already started dumping players and Diekman has a $5.75M team option for 2020 that they’re not going to pay. Of course, they’re not going to pay it because he hasn’t been particularly effective: he has a 4.97 ERA and a 1.368 WHIP. Also, the Twins have been particularly unkind to him, tagging him for seven runs in 4.2 IP. But it’s nice that other teams can snap him up and leave alone some of the other candidates the Twins might be targeting. Flanagan says the Nationals have also had interest in Diekman. A clear level above Diekman is Roenis Elias, the southpaw Mariners closer. His stuff is not elite (4.07 ERA, 43K in 42 IP) but he’s an above average left-handed reliever with some upside and is under team control for two years after this one. That might make him less likely to be traded, but his GM is Dealin’ Jerry Dipoto, and with as many teams interested in some left-handed relief, it’s hard to envision him passing up a competitive deal. Two Buyers Talk Trade Deadline It should not be a surprise that the Cubs and Brewers are both planning on being buyers at the deadline. The Cubs have about a 70-80% chance of making the playoffs and the Brewers have about a 30% chance, per various odds reports. Both seem to have a measured approach to the deadline, but it’s worth noting that the Brewers have been linked to some of the top starting pitching names in the rumor mill like Bumgarner. Meanwhile, the Cubs are another team that has been linked to left-handed relievers. That makes three teams just today besides the Twins chasing left-handed relievers: the Dodgers, Nationals and Cubs. The list of quality left-handed relievers who are likely to be available isn’t that deep. Here's the start of a list for us to track as the deadline goes on: Will Smith (SFG)Tony Watson (SFG)Roenis Elias (SEA)Jake Diekman (KC)Maybe?Greg Holland (ARI)Zach Duke (CIN)The Twins don’t need a shutdown southpaw reliever – they already have one in Taylor Rogers – and they might be just as comfortable moving Martin Perez, Devin Smeltzer or Lewis Thorpe to the bullpen for the playoffs. But it looks like Watson and Elias would be the best fits for the team, and that’s a pretty small market to be chasing. Click here to view the article

So I just looked it up, since I wanted to try out these mad SQL skills I learned last night to create this story. The 17-inning game was the longest regular season game thread, and shame on me for missing that.The AL Wild Card was longer.The longest baseball related thread of all time was the Dozier Trade Discussion Thread. (And there were some other long Dozier trade threads, too.)

It’s easy to say we want the Twins to go out and get a top shelf reliever, but what exactly would one cost? Last year’s trade market can provide some hints. Eight high-level relievers were traded last June and July, giving us some idea how teams value relievers and their own prospects. Let’s look at one, compare them to players this year, and see if you would make that deal.7/26/18 - Chicago White Sox trade Joakim Soria to Milwaukee Brewers for LHP Kodi Medeiros and RHP Wilber Perez Five days before the trade deadline, the Brewers got their shutdown setup man. Joakim Soria had been the White Sox closer, posting a tidy 2.56 ERA with the requisite stats (11.4 K/9) to match. He was purely a rental as he had a player option at the end of the year which he was sure to exercise, making him a free agent. That sounds a lot like Will Smith, the left-handed closer for the Giants, who is one of the more highly sought relievers at the deadline. Both have fantastic stuff, both have been closers this year, but are probably better used as setup men. Both are veterans, and (most importantly) both will be free agents. I suspect most would probably rather have Smith over Soria, so we’ll make sure the second half of the trade upgrades the prospects a bit, too. To get Soria, the Brew Crew had to give up two minor league arms: Kodi Medeiros was a former first round draft pick (12th overall) who had struggled in the minors, especially with his control. But the 22-year-old was doing better, both with his control (3.9 BB/9) and with the results (3.14 ERA) in AA. Kohl Stewart (#37 on Twins Daily’s midseason prospect list) is not a terrible comp for him in the Twins system. He was also a high draft pick, and also struggled. Has also bounced back a little, and is level higher and two years older. I think most would choose Stewart, but we need to upgrade the package a little anyway. Wilber Perez was a 20-year-old right-hander who was pitching in the Dominican Summer League at the time he was acquired. He has had success there (1.92 ERA) and to a lesser extent this year in Low A (3.92 ERA), but he reportedly has about a 91 mph fastball, so this is not a fire-thrower. Twins prospect Edwar Colina is a level higher, two years older, and has a little more success, so he’s a rich man’s Perez. Colina is also the #24 Twins prospect in our 2019 midseason prospect ranking. But we’re trying to upgrade the package, so let’s keep him as the comp. So, would you trade Stewart and Colina to get Giants closer Smith? You can tell us below, just register and give us your breakdown. Click here to view the article