John Bonnes

Aaron and John talk about an up-and-down week that saw the Twins snap a long losing streak, go on a winning streak, welcome back Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton, and Michael Pineda, and call up Brent Rooker and Willians Astudillo. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Click here to view the article

Lost in the last night’s Minnesota Twins’ dramatic 4-3 win over the Tigers was a split-second call in an unusual situation that potentially pits baseball traditionalists versus sabermetricians. Or maybe it doesn’t?Holding a 1-0 lead, Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal was in a jam in the bottom of the fifth inning. He had runners on the corners, and no outs, with Eddie Rosario at the plate. Rosario hit a one-hopper back to Skubal, and Skubal had a fraction of a second to decide whether to throw to second and start a double play, which would allow the runner (Jake Cave) to score. Or he could throw home, almost assuredly Cave out, but only get one out. He chose the former, and the game was tied. Immediately Twins broadcasters Dick Bremer and Justin Morneau debated the choice Skubal had made, wondering if he would do the same thing if offered it a second time. On the one hand, the chances for a big inning had been short-circuited, and indeed the inning ended in a tie, and the Tigers regained the lead in the next half-inning. On the other hand, the lead was blown, and the Tigers offense had not gotten a hit, let alone score runs, against Twins starting pitcher Kenta Maeda after he gave up a leadoff home run to the first batter of the game. Actual runs were at a premium. Even after the play, the right answer for Skubal is not obvious, either to traditionalists or (as we’ll find out) to sabermetricians. But sabermetricians attack it in two parts: one strategic and one practical. The strategic is probably the more controversial. Strategically, the fact that this is the tying run is not particularly important since it is only the fifth inning. The choice should be to minimize the expected number of runs scored because there is a lot of game left. Indeed, five more runs were scored after this play. Late in the game, the actual run might mean more, but in the middle of the game, the actual run is not as important as improving your situation as much as possible. Which gets us to the second half of the question: is it preferable to have runners on first and second base with one out or have the bases empty with two outs but a run already on the board? To know that, sabermetricians refer to a Run Expectancy (RE) Matrix. It was developed by authors John Thorn and Peter Palmer in The Hidden Game of Baseball, which was published in 1984. It proved to be one of the foundations on which sabermetrics was built. They loaded decades of baseball games into a computer and crunched basic numbers, including the average runs scored in an inning after a specific situation. There are only 24 situations in an inning. Here they are, along with the average runs scored after that situation in 2019. Download attachment: RE 2020-09-05 empty.JPG Highlighted in blue is the jam where Skubal found himself. Highlighted in red is where things sat after the double play. So the RE dropped from 1.79 to .11 EXCEPT he also gave up a run. So really, it went from 1.79 to 1.11. His actions saved his team .68 runs. Download attachment: RE 2020-09-05 DP.JPG But what if he went home? That depends on how the rundown goes. If both runners stay at first and second, that’s the best possible outcome: a RE of 1.00. If the rundown drags on and they each advance a base, that’s the worst possible outcome: RE of 1.43. Download attachment: RE 2020-09-05 home.JPG Our analysis shows a couple of things. First, almost any decision Skubal made was defensible. He was handed a gift, and he did a solid job, and making a slightly better decision would have only gained him another tenth of a run. It also shows that the answer really is not obvious from any standpoint, even after the play. The default sabrmetric answer defensively is usually “take the outs” but in this case, he might have helped himself more by going home, provided the Tigers were efficient in getting Cave out before the runners advanced. Traditionalists who value the lead, especially those used to watching baseball in decades where runs were more valuable, probably agree. Click here to view the article

Well, that's pretty disappointing. This team absolutely could use some help. No if Pineda and Donaldson return and are healthy, that's like two huge additions. Except... 1) If they have that much faith in Pineda, why were they consistently tied to starting pitchers and 2) How much faith can any of us have in Donaldson fully recovering at this point? It would not have cost much to hedge their bets with a RHed batter, and a few decent pieces were moved. Feels like a low-cost opportunity was missed. (Side note: I wonder, if they had taken care of business in Detroit this weekend, if they might've added Schoop at the deadline. I don't think DET moved anyone, and I can see why: they're actually in this thing thanks to last weekend.)

Also, remember last year when there was so much interest locally in acquiring Robbie Ray? Now he's got a 7.84 ERA, is walking the park, and the Blue Jays got money out of the DBacks for taking them off their hands. Woof. Sometimes the best trades....

RE: Cleveland This is the second year in row they've let go of an ace starting pitcher at the trade deadline when they were seemingly competing for the postseason. Last year, at least, they added help in the form of Puig and Reyes. This year ... no so much. I get not wanting to have malcontents on your team, but this seems a pretty high price to pay for clubhouse harmony. This is purely speculation, but I wonder if the org is bowing too much to Francona's wishes. It almost seems like CLE was going to dump Clevinger one way or the other, and this is the best (non-division) offer they got. Whatever. I'll take it. I like having him out of the division, out of the AL, and I think Cleveland got worse unless they make some other big moves at the deadline.

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' worst week of the season, what to expect at the trade deadline, the lineup's shocking decline vs. left-handed pitching, Michael Pineda's return, the latest of many injury updates, and why the new playoff format might actually help save the Twins. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins hanging onto first place despite never-ending injuries, this week's big series in Cleveland, Kenta Maeda's near no-hitter, Ryan Jeffers' unexpected debut, and Miguel Sano crushing the ball again. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Now Click here to view the article

Immediately following last night’s remarkable game, John Bonnes, Matthew Trueblood and Matthew Taylor were joined by a live virtual audience to discuss Kenta Maeda’s near no-hitter, Rocco’s tough decisions and their reaction to the Twins’ first extra-innings game under the new rules. We do these immediately after the last out of most Twins’ games, and you can join us by checking out PostgamePint.com. Download The Postgame Pint Podcast You can also listen to the Postgame Pint and never miss another one. Just head over to our iTunes page and subscribe. Every morning you'll have a new episode waiting for you. Or listen wherever you download your favorite podcasts. Click here to view the article

Absolutely nuts.

Aaron and John talk about Jose Berrios' struggles and the Twins' in-flux rotation, the strategy behind a surprising safety squeeze, how the Twins dramatically improved their defense, what to make of slow starts by Miguel Sano and Mitch Garver, and whether or not John Bonnes is a heartthrob. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Click here to view the article

That was our fault - we sent out the wrong link on social media. You should be good to go with the links above.

"early onset Dr. Manhattan-ism" Brilliant.

Aaron and John commiserate about the Twins four-game losing streak and count down the news that matters. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. TO LISTEN, CLICK HERE Click here to view the article

Finally, get all your Twins' news in 30-45 minutes. Subscribe to Twins Daily's new podcast, and you'll get the previous night's Postgame Pint, where Twins Daily's writers discuss the previous game with our live virtual audience. Just download it on iTunes or iHeartRadio or wherever you download your favorite podcasts. *** Twins Daily's Podcast on iTunes *** Twins Daily's Podcast on iHeartRadio *** Twins Daily's Podcast Home Page *** Join the next Postgame Pint at PostgamePint.com *** Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins taking three out of four from Cleveland at Target Field, unexpectedly great pitching, a soft upcoming schedule, injuries starting to test the depth, and a navel-gazing discussion about the history of Twins blogging. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. * Listen Here * Click here to view the article

Saturday Update: Trevor Plouffe woke up and said there was more bad news today. Reports are now that one more player (3 total), two coaches and one other staffer tested positive. Per John Heyman, the St. Louis Cardinals have multiple positive COVID-19 tests within the organization, and their game tonight with the Brewers has been postponed. Saturday, former Twin Trevor Plouffe reported at least four more Cardinals tested positive.The Cardinals completed a two-game series with the Twins on Wednesday, and their current opponent, the Cleveland Indians, used the same visiting facilities yesterday that the Cardinals used Wednesday. At the very least this suggests that some portion of the Twins’ series versus Cleveland is in jeopardy. We’ll update this story as news breaks. Chris Long of KSTP reported that Twins players and staff should know the results of recent tests by game time. Click here to view the article