John Bonnes

I almost invariably can't really do it. I don't watch the playoffs for awhile after the Twins are eliminated. Then, some night, I'll turn on the TC, and there will be some postseason drama that will draw me in, and then I know I'm probably back. Or mostly back.

You're playing. And you think everything is going fine. But then one thing goes wrong. And then another. And another. And you try to fight back but the harder you fight the deeper you sink til you can't move. You can't breathe. Cuz you're in over your head like quicksand. - Quicksand ;)As I write this, the weather is changing. The temperature is dropping. A gray cloud rolls through downtown. The wind is positively whipping. I don’t have an answer for that. I cannot explain why, every year on the day my team gets eliminated from the postseason, the weather changes. I expect you think it’s my imagination. Go ahead and look up the meteorological record for every elimination game in 2004 and 2006 and 2009 and 2010 and 2017 and 2019 and now 2020. I don’t need to. I know what happened. I felt it. I also don’t have any answers about what happened the last two days at Target Field. Or about 0-18. Or the helplessness I have felt at the end of the postseason each year since 2004. We will all try. We will identify targets for our pain: the players, the managers, the umpires. But targets are not answers, and the truth is that the struggle was bigger than a couple of plays or players. It surrounded the team. One thing goes wrong and then another and another, and deeper into the quicksand we sink. This is the reality, and it’s a reality that anyone familiar with believing, investing, trying, risking… learns. Our culture – especially masculine culture - denigrates those who lose, tells you that you should never accept it. But combatants will tell you otherwise: losing is a part of the game. Nobody lasts long if they can’t find their way past it, around it, over it. Above it? Plus, in truth, while this one hurt, it didn’t hurt as much as 2004 or 2006. The late start and season’s brevity absolutely hurt our team, but it helped the fan base stay less invested. So did the modified playoff format, which sort of ripped the Band-Aid off quickly. Still, it means the Twins wasted one of the best rosters they had ever assembled. Or was it? It looked like it last March. But the two-game sweep reflected the same strengths and weaknesses we saw over the 60-game season. This team never got its supposed high-powered offense rolling. They ended the season ranked 19th in MLB in runs scored. And now the front office will need to find answers. Players regressed. Players broke down. Perhaps some players just aren’t going to be who we thought they were. Health was also an issue, and worse, it was last year too. For two years, the organization and especially the manager have emphasized rest and recuperation and been careful about over-extending players. And both years, come the end of September, the team has limped into the postseason with a roster full of underperforming dinged-up players. Also, now questions will be raised whether being the best overall team for 162 games is really that important. For the second year in a row, a 100-win pace team was not only swept out of the postseason, but didn’t really give a fight. Last year, pitching let the team down. This year, hitting tanked. Maybe the depth that wins games in the summer’s marathon doesn’t mean as much in the postseason. I mean, Dusty Baker ended the Twins season using just six pitchers, and not all of them were particularly good. Finally, all of those questions must be answered while the really big questions remain unanswered. “Will there be a season?” “How many games?” “Versus whom?” “Will there be minor leagues?” The Twins faces a daunting task far earlier than they - or we - had hoped. I doubt they believe they have any of those answers right now. I know I don’t. I can’t even tell you what happened to this season’s promise. Or how to deal with loss. Or why the weather is changing, right on schedule, from summer to fall. Again. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' best and worst potential playoff matchups, if avoiding New York is the only thing that matters, Mitch Garver's return creating a catching debate, Josh Donaldson getting ejected after a homer, and the state of the rotation heading into the final week. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

This weekend’s results push the Twins towards one of four postseason opponents. Major League Baseball’s regular season ends in two weeks, and MLB’s postseason will look a lot different than in past years. Thanks to some beatdowns delivered to the Orioles and Tigers this weekend, the playoff field for the American League is almost already set. What’s more, several of the postseason scenarios are clearer. Here’s an educated guess at the seeds and matchups:In this first round, the teams will play just three games, and in all three games the higher seed will be the home team, meaning that even if they play in a neutral site, they’ll get to bat last. The Rays, A’s, White Sox and Twins are likely to be those home teams, but their exact seeding is still a jumble. The top three spots will go do the division winners in order of record. The Rays and A’s have a 3.5 and 6 game lead on their divisions respectively, so they’re both heavy favorites to end up with one of the top three spots. The Twins and White Sox are one game apart and face each other this week. Whichever team wins the Al Central will get one of the top three spots. The other team will likely get the fourth spot, which will belong to the second place team with the best record. Beyond that, it’s too early to call the order of the top three spots. All of those teams are within a game of each other with two weeks left to play. Of the four teams, it looks like the White Sox have the toughest schedule, but they also control their own destiny with 8 games versus AL Central rivals Minnesota and Cleveland. The four teams who will be the “road” teams are likewise mostly determined, and their seeds are a little more clear. After being swept by the Twins this weekend, Cleveland looks to be the third place finisher in the AL Central. They’ll be the seventh or eighth seed unless they make up a lot of ground versus the White Sox when they play them in a four-game set the final week of the season. The Yankees and Blue Jays are a half game apart for second place in the AL East, and still play each other another seven times this year. The winner will likely end up in the fifth spot and the loser will end up in the seventh or eighth spot, depending on how Cleveland finishes. Finally, it looks like Houston has the sixth spot to themselves. They are the second best team in the AL West, but have a .500 record, meaning they’ll likely be the worst second place team. If the playoffs started today, the Twins would be seeded fourth and play the fifth place seed, which would be the Blue Jays. But both teams could be in a very different situation by the end of the week, as the Twins face the White Sox and the Blue Jays face the Yankees. Speaking of the Yankees, if you think this is looking a lot like the Twins could end up facing them again in the first round of the playoffs – well, that’s because it could certainly happen. It’ll likely be one of four teams, they’re one of those four teams, and if you have any history with Minnesota sports, that seems like the obvious conclusion. But more objectively, it just about a 25% chance. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about an up-and-down week that saw the Twins snap a long losing streak, go on a winning streak, welcome back Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton, and Michael Pineda, and call up Brent Rooker and Willians Astudillo. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Click here to view the article

Lost in the last night’s Minnesota Twins’ dramatic 4-3 win over the Tigers was a split-second call in an unusual situation that potentially pits baseball traditionalists versus sabermetricians. Or maybe it doesn’t?Holding a 1-0 lead, Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal was in a jam in the bottom of the fifth inning. He had runners on the corners, and no outs, with Eddie Rosario at the plate. Rosario hit a one-hopper back to Skubal, and Skubal had a fraction of a second to decide whether to throw to second and start a double play, which would allow the runner (Jake Cave) to score. Or he could throw home, almost assuredly Cave out, but only get one out. He chose the former, and the game was tied. Immediately Twins broadcasters Dick Bremer and Justin Morneau debated the choice Skubal had made, wondering if he would do the same thing if offered it a second time. On the one hand, the chances for a big inning had been short-circuited, and indeed the inning ended in a tie, and the Tigers regained the lead in the next half-inning. On the other hand, the lead was blown, and the Tigers offense had not gotten a hit, let alone score runs, against Twins starting pitcher Kenta Maeda after he gave up a leadoff home run to the first batter of the game. Actual runs were at a premium. Even after the play, the right answer for Skubal is not obvious, either to traditionalists or (as we’ll find out) to sabermetricians. But sabermetricians attack it in two parts: one strategic and one practical. The strategic is probably the more controversial. Strategically, the fact that this is the tying run is not particularly important since it is only the fifth inning. The choice should be to minimize the expected number of runs scored because there is a lot of game left. Indeed, five more runs were scored after this play. Late in the game, the actual run might mean more, but in the middle of the game, the actual run is not as important as improving your situation as much as possible. Which gets us to the second half of the question: is it preferable to have runners on first and second base with one out or have the bases empty with two outs but a run already on the board? To know that, sabermetricians refer to a Run Expectancy (RE) Matrix. It was developed by authors John Thorn and Peter Palmer in The Hidden Game of Baseball, which was published in 1984. It proved to be one of the foundations on which sabermetrics was built. They loaded decades of baseball games into a computer and crunched basic numbers, including the average runs scored in an inning after a specific situation. There are only 24 situations in an inning. Here they are, along with the average runs scored after that situation in 2019. Download attachment: RE 2020-09-05 empty.JPG Highlighted in blue is the jam where Skubal found himself. Highlighted in red is where things sat after the double play. So the RE dropped from 1.79 to .11 EXCEPT he also gave up a run. So really, it went from 1.79 to 1.11. His actions saved his team .68 runs. Download attachment: RE 2020-09-05 DP.JPG But what if he went home? That depends on how the rundown goes. If both runners stay at first and second, that’s the best possible outcome: a RE of 1.00. If the rundown drags on and they each advance a base, that’s the worst possible outcome: RE of 1.43. Download attachment: RE 2020-09-05 home.JPG Our analysis shows a couple of things. First, almost any decision Skubal made was defensible. He was handed a gift, and he did a solid job, and making a slightly better decision would have only gained him another tenth of a run. It also shows that the answer really is not obvious from any standpoint, even after the play. The default sabrmetric answer defensively is usually “take the outs” but in this case, he might have helped himself more by going home, provided the Tigers were efficient in getting Cave out before the runners advanced. Traditionalists who value the lead, especially those used to watching baseball in decades where runs were more valuable, probably agree. Click here to view the article

Well, that's pretty disappointing. This team absolutely could use some help. No if Pineda and Donaldson return and are healthy, that's like two huge additions. Except... 1) If they have that much faith in Pineda, why were they consistently tied to starting pitchers and 2) How much faith can any of us have in Donaldson fully recovering at this point? It would not have cost much to hedge their bets with a RHed batter, and a few decent pieces were moved. Feels like a low-cost opportunity was missed. (Side note: I wonder, if they had taken care of business in Detroit this weekend, if they might've added Schoop at the deadline. I don't think DET moved anyone, and I can see why: they're actually in this thing thanks to last weekend.)

Also, remember last year when there was so much interest locally in acquiring Robbie Ray? Now he's got a 7.84 ERA, is walking the park, and the Blue Jays got money out of the DBacks for taking them off their hands. Woof. Sometimes the best trades....

RE: Cleveland This is the second year in row they've let go of an ace starting pitcher at the trade deadline when they were seemingly competing for the postseason. Last year, at least, they added help in the form of Puig and Reyes. This year ... no so much. I get not wanting to have malcontents on your team, but this seems a pretty high price to pay for clubhouse harmony. This is purely speculation, but I wonder if the org is bowing too much to Francona's wishes. It almost seems like CLE was going to dump Clevinger one way or the other, and this is the best (non-division) offer they got. Whatever. I'll take it. I like having him out of the division, out of the AL, and I think Cleveland got worse unless they make some other big moves at the deadline.

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' worst week of the season, what to expect at the trade deadline, the lineup's shocking decline vs. left-handed pitching, Michael Pineda's return, the latest of many injury updates, and why the new playoff format might actually help save the Twins. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins hanging onto first place despite never-ending injuries, this week's big series in Cleveland, Kenta Maeda's near no-hitter, Ryan Jeffers' unexpected debut, and Miguel Sano crushing the ball again. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Now Click here to view the article

Immediately following last night’s remarkable game, John Bonnes, Matthew Trueblood and Matthew Taylor were joined by a live virtual audience to discuss Kenta Maeda’s near no-hitter, Rocco’s tough decisions and their reaction to the Twins’ first extra-innings game under the new rules. We do these immediately after the last out of most Twins’ games, and you can join us by checking out PostgamePint.com. Download The Postgame Pint Podcast You can also listen to the Postgame Pint and never miss another one. Just head over to our iTunes page and subscribe. Every morning you'll have a new episode waiting for you. Or listen wherever you download your favorite podcasts. Click here to view the article

Absolutely nuts.

Aaron and John talk about Jose Berrios' struggles and the Twins' in-flux rotation, the strategy behind a surprising safety squeeze, how the Twins dramatically improved their defense, what to make of slow starts by Miguel Sano and Mitch Garver, and whether or not John Bonnes is a heartthrob. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Click here to view the article