John Bonnes

Aaron and John talk about Royce Lewis' knee injury, the Twins' first spring training game and the presence of fans at the ballpark, Alex Kirilloff's chances of being on the Opening Day roster, Lewis Thorpe's improved outlook, and why Jake Odorizzi is still unsigned. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Now Click here to view the article

The stakes for spring training games have never been this high.The game itself was even less meaningful than most spring training games, if that’s even possible. But the event, with an estimated 2154 fans attending a live baseball game while a nation limps towards a COVID finish line has repercussions throughout the baseball world. It also likely gives a glimpse as to what we might expect at Target Field this year. It starts hours before fans enter the stadium. Lot of disinfectant is brandished on handrails. For what it’s worth, the restrictions don’t seems to be keeping people away from the ballpark. There were tickets made available to the general public on Thursday. They sold out within a matter of a couple of hours, even though the games are only seven innings long. What’s more, we’ve been warned to expect some other quirkiness, such as we saw yesterday when the Twins batted in the bottom of the seventh – with the lead. Whatever. The crowd just wanted baseball. And baseball wanted the crowd. It was noticed by the players, particularly Twins starting pitcher Devin Smeltzer. “I get out early as you guys know,” Smeltzer admitted. “I heard some fans, and some normalcy out there. It was pretty emotional. I got choked up a little bit.” He wasn’t the only emotional one in Hammond today, but most of the emotions I witnessed were some mixture of joy and relief and maybe a little wonderment at how good meaningless baseball can feel. Or maybe it wasn’t so meaningless. Certainly the efforts to bring it back were not. It required some reasonable attempts to solve a difficult problem, while keeping an eye on some widespread repercussions. As my hot dog vendor said “If we screw this up, it could mean no fans for all of baseball.” Overall, it didn’t look like they’re overtly screwing it up, and it gave me a lot of hope that we’ll have some similar experiences in Minnesota this summer. Click here to view the article

Last year’s Twins’ bullpen spread around the most critical innings, and the relievers’ Leverage Index (LI) shows that.Perhaps it was matchups. Perhaps it was the depth of the bullpen. Or perhaps it was just coincidence. But last year’s Twins’ bullpen spread around the pressure inherent to holding close leads like almost no other Major League team, steering away from the closer-dominated hierarchy we talked about in Part 1. And you can see it using the sabrmetric stat Leverage Index (LI) that we detailed in Part 2. Here are the Twins’ qualified relievers, the average Leverage Index they faced when entering a game, and where they ranked in LI in MLB overall. Name gmLI MLB Rank Taylor Rogers 1.69 19 Sergio Romo 1.62 24 Tyler Duffey 1.61 25 Trevor May 1.36 53 Tyler Clippard 1.24 73 Caleb Thielbar 1.04 100 Jorge Alcala 0.65 146 What are you looking at? As we saw yesterday, any LI over one indicates a more-dangerous-than-average situation. Six of the Twins qualified relievers had an LI greater than one. No other team in MLB had that many. In fact, the Twins actually had eight relievers. Matt Wisler (1.11) and Cody Stashak (1.05) both also had LI over one, but just missed the “qualified” designation by a couple of innings. Baldelli shared his high leverage situations throughout the bullpen, not relying on a couple of guys to carry the load, like other teams. Alternately, you can see that the Twins look like they mostly protected rookie Jorge Alcala from those situations. Now look at how bunched together those top three relievers are, and how high up they rank compared to all MLB qualified relievers. There are 30 teams, but the Twins had three relievers in the top 25 in average LI? Yep. Toronto is the only other team that had three relievers in the top 35. Toronto is also the only other team that had four pitchers in the top 55, like the Twins did. They’re also the only team to have five pitchers in the top 75, like the Twins did. The bunching of the Twins becomes more obvious when you look at the average LI each of the Twins top relievers faced, compared to the average LI the same pitcher faced on other teams. Name gmLI Ave MLB gmLI Taylor Rogers 1.69 1.70 Sergio Romo 1.62 1.37 Tyler Duffey 1.61 1.22 Trevor May 1.36 1.03 Tyler Clippard 1.24 0.86 Caleb Thielbar 1.04 0.77 Jorge Alcala 0.65 0.69 Rogers faced about average situations for the #1 ranked person in the bullpen compared to other teams. And Alcala faced about the same as the sixth ranked guy in the bullpen. But Romo, Duffey, May, Clippard and even Thielbar all were brought into games at significantly more crucial moments than their peers on other teams. In short, Baldelli spread the wealth among the relievers in his bullpen. He is finding spots to use even the fourth and fifth best relievers that impact a game, and likely help them grow, and you can see that using LI. You can also see that using LI if you take a look at individual pitchers’ game logs. So we’ll do that next. Next: Using LI to see how Baldelli is trusting individual pitchers. Click here to view the article

FWIW, there's definitely a growing sense among the beat writers here that the Twins might play this straight up so Kirilloff has a real chance to be on the Opening Day roster. I have trouble believing that. But we'll see.

FORT MYERS - Your blood pressure is the key to the Twins' bullpen. Kinda.Wednesday we talked about the movement away from the closer dominant hierarchy that has ruled MLB bullpens since the 80s. The Twins are leading that movement, and were surprised to find reliever Tyler Duffey casually drop the sabrmetric stat Leverage Index (LI) in an interview. It’s useful for understanding the changes the Twins bullpen is making, so let’s learn a little bit about it. If you were hooked up to a blood pressure monitor while watching a baseball game, the readings would look a lot like Leverage Index. Things get tense, and Leverage Index goes up. Things relax, it goes down. In fact, Leverage Index is easier than blood pressure – it’s not two numbers over each other. It’s a single number that you compare to 1, which is an average MLB at-bat. Lower than one, your blood pressure is probably OK. If it’s over one, you’re sitting forward in your seat. If it’s over two … maybe just keep the defib handy. That’s because Leverage Index estimates how important an at-bat is in a game – before the actual at-bat happens – and does so objectively. For instance, you and your potential myocardial infarction know that an at-bat when your team is up by four with one out in the bottom of the fifth inning and the bases empty (LI=0.2) is less important than a one-run lead in the top of the ninth with one out and runners on the corners (LI=5.7). You don’t need LI to tell you that. But how about this? On August 22nd last year, the Twins were facing the Tigers. Leading 2-1, Trevor May walked Niko Goodrum in the sixth inning to load the bases with two outs, and was replaced by Tyler Duffey. Later, when the game went to extra innings, Taylor Rogers started the top of the 10th, which meant he started it with a runner already on second. So which reliever was brought into the game at a more critical time? According to Leverage Index, Duffey was. It was his highest leverage appearance of the season. It had an LI of 4.51, which means it was 4.51 times more important of an at-bat than an average at-bat. Rogers’ was important, too, but it was just 2.5 times more important than an average at-bat. (By the way, neither reliever got very lucky in that game. Duffey had the tying run score on an error and Rogers watched a ground ball squirt between short and third to lose the lead. But the Twins won the game on a walkoff hit by Max Kepler in the bottom of the tenth.) The bad news is that it takes a lot of computational power to devise LI values. But the good news is that someone else already did that for you. So if you’re really interested in how LI is devised, dive into this next italics area. Otherwise we’ll meet again at the bottom. How To Compute Leverage Index Chart several decades of play-by-play for MLB games and determine the probability a team has for winning a game in all specific situations. For instance, if you found that road teams that were down by one with runners on the corners and one out in the seventh won 48 out of 100 games, then their chance of winning would be 48%. Do this for all run differentials, innings, outs and men on base situations.Now for all those, figure out what could happen next. In the example above, they could hit a single, scoring the runner from third, moving the other runner over, and likely increasing their chance to win. Or he can hit into a double play, ending the inning, scoring nobody, and decreasing their chance to win. Both are pretty big outcomes. So is striking out, or hitting a home run, or all the other things that can happen. Now establish odds of all those scenarios happening, and multiply them by the absolute value of the differences from Step 2.Do the same computation for all the at-bats in a game. Use that to determine what the average difference is over a whole game.For each scenario, divide #3 by #4. If it’s over 1, it’s higher (and more tense) than average. If it’s lower, it’s lower than average.Fortunately, somebody already did all this computation for you and now it’s just sitting in a table for you to access. His moniker is Tom Tango, and he invented LI, and a big table of the LI for every situation is available here. If you want to dive further into LI, you can also find a primer (that is far more detailed than I provided) here on Fan Graphs. While you’re there, you can find average LIs for various pitchers on their player pages. For instance, the Twins relievers, sorted by the average LI they faced when they entered a game last year is here. That seems like a good place to start tomorrow, as we take another look at whether Baldelli is truly treating his bullpen differently than most other managers, by looking at LI. Next: Using a Bullpen With Leverage Click here to view the article

FORT MYERS - We thought we knew what was going on in left field. We do not. Which is just SO left field.The English language is full of idioms that have a relationship to baseball. “Out of left field” is one of them. It essentially means “crazy” or at least “unexpected” but its origin is debated. Some point to an early New York ballpark that had a sanitarium beyond the left field wall. Others think it labeled the kids or fans that purchased a (cheaper) ticket to watch Babe Ruth in left field at Yankee Stadium. Except that Ruth played in right field. While they were out in left field. [sad trombone sound] Today, its usage transcends the sport, so much that almost nobody recognizes it as being attached to baseball. Honestly, before this minute, have you ever even tied it to baseball? Or wondered where it came from? I hope not, because I’m about to use it both figuratively and literally…. We got some news out of left field today. Due to the financial and team-control benefits of limiting a player’s service time, most of us expected #1 Twins prospect Alex Kirilloff to start the season in AAA-St. Paul, and get promoted to the Twins sometime in late April. By doing so, the team would be able to push off his free agency for a year so they would have control over him through 2027 instead of 2026. Which naturally raised the question: who would be playing there in April? Presumably, left-handed batting Jake Cave and right-handed batting Brent Rooker would make a capable platoon. But when Luis Arraez reported to camp and talked about becoming accustomed to left field, Twins fans were reminded that he started in that spot eighteen times his rookie year , which was more than he played any other position other than second base. Given that he’s so valuable in the lineup, perhaps he would get most of the April at-bats? If that’s the plan, there’s some news out of left field. It doesn’t sound like the Twins are planning on investing a lot of spring training time in teaching Arraez that position. Manager Rocco Baldelli talked about seeing a lot of his players, particularly Arraez, play in different positions. But he also indicated he would be almost exclusively in the infield. “He's going to play mostly in the infield,” stated Baldelli. “He's probably going to split between second and third while in the infield. There's a chance he could get a few innings at short or even at first base, but that's not a priority.” This isn’t because the Twins don’t want to find a spot for Arraez in the lineup. That much Baldelli made abundantly clear. “Louie’s going to get a ton of at-bats this year and do a great job,” Baldelli emphasized. “He’s certainly a guy we want in the lineup.” Ok. But where? Is he regularly displacing Jorge Polanco at second? Josh Donaldson at third? Nelson Cruz at designated hitter? It sounds like the plan is to have him move around, and maybe move some other pieces around? “With our roster looking the way it does, we may ask a few guys to do some different things,” Baldelli explained, and then started listing some examples. “Miguel [sano} is going to get some work at third base, in addition to first base. [Polanco] is going to get some work at shortstop, in addition to second base. Kirilloff is going to play first base and corner outfield.” Hold it. Who? Yep, Kirilloff was casually mentioned with several starting lineup players. Does he actually have a non-zero chance to make this roster, regardless of the future financial implications? For what it’s worth, during a discussion about the evils of manipulating player service time yesterday, Donaldson was asked about Kirilloff’s situation. He walked a tightrope. “I think Thad, and the relationship I have with Thad and Derek, is that they want to have the best team out there. That’s going to be for them to answer,” he replied. But it’s clear what Donaldson, a team leader and veteran, thinks should happen. “I’ve seen Alex for a short time as far as being at the alternate site. I think the kid is really good. I think he has a bright future ahead of him. What they do is what they do. I don't know who everybody is gonna be on our roster at this moment. But I would assure Twins fans that everything I’ve seen, Derek and Thad want to put the best team out there.” We hope so. Donaldson (and I imagine, a large chunk of the MLB Players’ Union) are watching. So are we. And wondering. From left field. Click here to view the article

FORT MYERS - The Twins announced on Wednesday morning the Twins prospect Royce Lewis has a torn ACL. He will have surgery on Friday in Minneapolis and then rehab in Ft. Myers. He will miss the 2021 season.Lewis reported this weekend, went through COVID protocol and had his physical on Monday. He reported some soreness in his right knee. He felt a little soreness doing some side-to-side running, and then slipped on some ice in Texas. A subsequent MRI revealed the full tear. Lewis is the Twins #2 prospect in the Twins organization (who Twins Daily, coincidentally, profiled today) and was expected to get a full year's at-bats in some combination of AA-Witchita or AAA-St. Paul. He struggled in 2019 in A ball, but rebounded in the fall in the Arizona Fall League, setting up high expectations for 2020. He spent 2020 training in St. Paul during the cancelled minor league season, where Falvey said the organization saw a lot of development, especially defensively. "Defensively, he can make the flash play as well as anybody", said Falvey. "He can go extend - his athleticism just plays - but those routine plays and getting those ground balls regularly, that was an area of focus for him developmentally. And we thought he did a good job over there last year." As a result, the Twins were very interested to see how he developed this year. His natural track would have been to start at AA, but Falvey admitted they were waiting to see where he was at the end of camp before making a decision. Instead, the 21-year-old will go through a 9-12 month rehab period, returning in 2021. Following the day's workout, Rocco Baldelli addressed the media. "It’s very tough news in a lot of ways. I feel for Royce more than anything else. He was very much looking forward to getting going this year. A lot of enthusiasm coming in, and to deal with that, it’s not easy. It’s certainly a setback but one that he can certainly overcome." Shortstops have generated quite a bit of news in these early days of spring training. Yesterday, the Twins announced they had signed 34-year-old Andrew Romine to a minor league deal and invited him to camp. Asked point blank if that was related to their concerns about Lewis, Falvey said that had been arranged before Lewis' physical. The Twins also announced that starting shortstop Andrelton Simmons is not in camp, stuck in Curacoa with travel issues, and that he is not the only player who is. The Twins expect that situation to be resolved, but did not give a timeframe. Click here to view the article

Twins’ relievers are talking about Leverage Index. 2002 Twins Geek’s head just exploded.FORT MYERS - It used to be so simple. Starting in the 80s, fans knew who the best reliever was based on how near the end of the game the player pitched in a close game. The best got paid big bucks and pitched the ninth. The 8th inning setup man was next on the hierarchy. The 7th inning person ranked third. As a fan, you could watch when they pitched, and debate with your friends who should be pitching which inning, based on trust. There is a general logic behind this. Pitching the ninth inning in a close game is more important than pitching the seventh inning. Why? Because if your team gives up the lead in the bottom of the ninth, your team loses, whereas if you give up a lead in the top of the seventh, your team still has nine outs to try and regain it. You want your best reliever at the end of the game for the same reason you want your best salesperson on your biggest accounts: the stakes are higher, you have more to lose. No wonder they’re both called closers. But about 10-15 year after this advancement, sabrmetricians started wondering if it wasn’t time to look a little deeper. Some very specific questions started being asked. Was the hierarchy really necessary when leading by three runs? Why was a closer being saved (i.e. not used) during critical extra innings? Was it really more valuable to face the bottom of the order in the ninth than the middle of the order in the eighth? The sabrmetricians had numbers on their side, but the system had something far more valuable: a lot of people entrenched and making money from the existing system. Closers were handsomely paid, sometimes three or four times as much as their teammates. Managers who strayed from the formula were chum if didn’t work, and close games can be fickle mistresses. Managers weren’t necessarily much better if it did work, as egos (and paychecks) could be at risk if the all-important “save” statistic was challenged. But it is changing, and Twins fans are seeing it up close since Rocco Baldelli started managing the team. “I think focusing more on going out there and how to get the outs is significantly more important than the conversation of role,” Baldelli said this week, talking about his bullpen. “We're focused on the first part of that. We are focused on the wins and how to get the outs.” Of course, that’s the sort of thing every manager says, but the last couple seasons of usage suggest it’s not just words. Taylor Rogers has mostly been the closer, but in 2019, he was often brought into games in the eighth inning, to face a more left-handed lineup. Towards the end of last year, he and Sergio Romo tag-teamed the ninth innings. But neither of them was the most valuable Twins reliever, and in fact neither of them was particularly close. That title belongs to Tyler Duffey, who never pitched a ninth inning, and only pitched in the eighth inning three times, only twice in a close game. But he came into games in equally critical situations, and it can be shown using an advanced statistic called Leverage Index (LI). It’s a statistic that I was surprised to find out that Duffey knows when he mentioned in his introductory interview this week. When asked about being satisfied with his earlier-inning fireman roll in the bullpen, Duffey replied “When you realize that an inning’s an inning, and how there’s a leverage index and all these things that really put more value into pitchers, you realize that inning you come in in the seventh and get the ‘three’ hitter out to finish an inning, that out may be so much more valuable than the eighth inning facing seven-eight-nine.” He’s right, of course, but that’s a new school of thought in MLB. And a new statistic. If Tyler Duffey and the Twins are talking about Leverage Index, then we certainly should be. We’ll remedy that tomorrow. Next - Part 2: Leverage Index and Your Blood Pressure Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins filling out the rotation with Matt Shoemaker, how another option changes Lewis Thorpe's outlook, details of the Saints' first season as a Twins affiliate, Luis Arraez in left field, low-maintenance individuals, and Sergio Romo signing with Oakland. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Now Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins have come to an agreement with starting pitcher Matt Shoemaker on a one-year deal, according to Jeff Passan. Shoemaker will likely compete for the fifth spot in the Twins rotation with Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe.Shoemaker is a 34-year-old with a 3.86 ERA in 602 major-league innings. He's made 112 appearances in the big leagues, including 104 starts. It was known that the Twins had an offer out to him. His one-year deal includes $250K in incentives on top of a $2 million base, according to Passan. Shoemaker is a good story, having gone unselected in the 2008 draft before signing with the Angels, working his way up through the minors, and finishing second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2014 when he went 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA. The righty's career has since been marred by injury issues, and he's made just 18 total starts since 2017, but he continues to perform well when on the mound. Andrew Thares wrote last week about why Shoemaker is an intriguing fit for the Twins. For instance, in 2020, Shoemaker increased his fastball's average velocity 1.6% to match the highest velocity of his career. And that paid dividends: "Additionally, his fastball spike started to pay some dividends in the advanced metrics, particularly with his Four-seamer, where his expected wOBA dropped from a career .390 down to just .214 in 2020 on that pitch." Thares also looked at Shoemaker's pitch usage, focusing on those pitchers which gave up home runs, which was his biggest issue in last year. He wonders why they didn't feature the four-seam fastball more.... "Instead, they continued to focus the majority of his fastball usage on his sinker (25.6% of pitches in 2020), which has been a flat-out awful pitch for the almost the entirety of Shoemaker’s career. This is where an opportunity lies for the Twins to take advantage of. If they simply cut the usage of Shoemaker’s awful sinker in favor of what appears to be a much improved four-seamer, it would instantly bring his game to a whole new level. Now that we know the details of the contract, Thares' conclusion reads even stronger: "You factor all of that in with the Twins ability to get the absolute most out of pitchers when other couldn’t (just look at Kenta Maeda last year as an example) and the Twins could have themselves a more than credible option to compete for a spot in the Twins starting rotation this spring, and he would likely be doing so on a cheap, low-risk deal for the Twins." Click over to read the whole analysis. When you're done, since Twins Daily has the best and most generous Twins community, share your thoughts and analysis in the comments! Twins Daily's Tom Froemming shared some highlights of Shoemaker's pitches and additional details of his career to date in the video below. Click here to view the article

On the verge of spring training, Aaron and John discuss Nelson Cruz's attitude after signing a one-year deal, the teams the St. Paul Saints will play in 2021, why PECOTA loves the Minnesota Twins and hates the White Sox, and Aaron's long road to BBWAA membership. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Now Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about a very busy week that saw the Twins re-sign Nelson Cruz, sign Alex Colome, and add two hard-throwing pitchers to the bullpen mix, plus a breakdown of the payroll situation and the moves that might still be to come. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Now Click here to view the article

The big question now is how much more they add. Cruz (assuming no big regression) plus Simmons means a step forward for this team. They're a plus team in every department now.

After an offseason of glacial negotiations that were described at one point as a 'staring contest,' the Twins and Nelson Cruz finally got it done on Tuesday night. Dan Hayes reports that Minnesota has reached agreement with the 40-year-old DH on a one-year, $13 million contract.The Athletic's intrepid beat man Dan Hayes was all over this one, reporting over the weekend that the Twins and Cruz had re-engaged after a period of inactivity. "While the latest development doesn’t guarantee anything gets completed," Hayes wrote, "the move to reconnect demonstrates that the Twins and Cruz understand the need for urgency in determining whether a new agreement can be reached." Just a few days later, it's a done deal. The Twins waited out Cruz and basically got him on the terms they wanted: a one-year pact at a reasonable salary that still gives them flexibility for further additions. Of course, there's no overstating how important Cruz has been to the Twins over these past two seasons. He was chosen as the team's Most Valuable Player in both 2019 and 2020, slashing .308/.394/.626 with 57 home runs and 141 RBIs in 173 games. During that span, he has ranked second among all MLB hitters in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS, trailing only Mike Trout in each category. Needless to say, the Twins' lineup card looks a whole lot better with the elite slugger penciled in. And his immensely positive impact goes beyond the bat – Cruz is lauded as a key figure in the clubhouse and community. Last summer he received the 2020 Muhammad Ali Sports Humanitarian Award in recognition of his amazing charitable work and generosity. That is not to say this signing isn't without risk. Cruz's $13 million salary commitment will likely limit what the Twins can do to address their remaining needs in the rotation and bullpen. He's the primest of prime regression candidates, set to turn 41 in July and having shown signs of wear down the stretch in 2020. Additionally, his inability to play anywhere other than DH (and the need to have him out there as much as possible) will be a constraint for Rocco Baldelli to deal with as he tries to keep his other regulars fresh, and utility man Luis Arráez in the lineup. But at the end of the day, the cons are outweighed by the pros for this seasoned and highly respected slugger. Even if he's not quite as good as he has been the past two years, Cruz can easily be one of the league's most imposing hitters and a big asset in the heart of the lineup. As Minnesota's unquestioned leader, Cruz has helped power the Twins to a .617 winning percentage and back-to-back division titles, but not one victory in the postseason. Now he'll get a chance to settle some unfinished business, with a reconfigured roster that will still feel plenty familiar thanks to his presence. Having finally resolved their biggest offseason sticking point, the Twins can feel pretty good about the state of their lineup. While they may still add another outfielder or infield depth, and trades cannot be ruled out, the offense is looking fairly set. Now, attention turns to the pitching staff. The effective payroll stands at around $125 million with Cruz's addition. Check back into Twins Daily for more details and analysis of this big signing, and share your initial reactions in the comments below. Nelly's back. Let's go. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article