John Bonnes

Aaron and John talk about the Twins winning three straight series vs. first-place teams, Nelson Cruz being back weirdly soon, Byron Buxton's impending return, the 1991 World Series team reunion, Michael Pineda's injury, and why Andrelton Simmons is still on the roster. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article

John joins Aaron from his baseball road trip in Houston, and the two discuss Jorge Polanco's resurgence, the Twins' decisions around veteran and rookie playing time, Josh Donaldson's injury status, and MLB's ratings and streaming problems. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article

Aaron and John discuss the Twins' trade deadline moves, including trading away Jose Berrios, and what it means for the future of the team. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article

Doh. Fixed. Sorry guys.

Aaron and John talk about Byron Buxton turning down the Twins' contract offer, Nelson Cruz being traded to Tampa Bay, Alex Kirilloff's season-ending surgery, and what's ahead in what figures to be a drama-filled week leading up to the MLB trade deadline. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article

Do not go gentle into that good night. Trade, trade amidst the dying of the light. I won't apologize to Dylan because he would hate that, but the sentiment rings true in a crappy baseball season. It's tempting to hold on timidly, wishing against one's fate. But what good is that? Better to meet it head-on, even if it means trading away Nelson Cruz. There is plenty to like about the deal and plenty not to like, and we're going to unpack both. And because it was Martini Cart Night at my condo complex, and because the whole crummy season should have been Martini Cart Night across Twins Territory, we're not going to be sticklers about the ordering of this list. #3 Reason to Like This Deal – The Timing Congrats, Minnesota. You're kind of a big deal. Your team just made the biggest trade of the trade deadline so far because Cruz was the best bat on the trade market. That market was a bit limited, given that he can't play in the National League, but he was still the big dog. And believe it or not, the question you should be asking was, "Why did they make the deal so early?" The Twins have been out of the postseason race for a month, but often a deal like this is not made until a day or two before the deadline. Sometimes it's not made until the afternoon of the trade deadline. Seeing a deal come together a week early suggests one of two things, both positive for the Twins: They got an offer they could not refuse. That's good news. They gave "buyers" a deadline for their best deal. I suspect the latter. The Twins looked at the market and decided to push the first domino. They still have at least Michael Pineda, Andrelton Simmons, and Hansel Robles to move, and they want to start fielding offers. It also might be that they saw teams waiting on making offers for someone like Cubs' third baseman Kris Bryant until Cruz had found a landing spot. That's important because the Twins are likely trying to move Josh Donaldson. That's more difficult until Bryant is traded, since Bryant doesn't have $50M attached to him as Donaldson does. So even if the Twins insisted on the timing, it's a ploy that suits their needs. #3 Reason to Hate This Deal - Beware the Rays The Rays have earned the title of the Smartest Team in Any Deal. It's happened over and over, even when the names involved were premier players like Blake Snell or Chris Archer. It's hard to win a trade with the Rays. That said, the last deal the Twins made with the Rays has turned out great. Before the 2018 season, the Rays traded Jake Odorizzi to the Twins for prospect Jermaine Palacio. Odorizzi only had one good year with the Twins – but it was a terrific year, posting a 3.51 ERA in 2019 and resurrecting his career. Meanwhile, Palacios is back in the Twins organization. He's playing at AA-Witchita this year. He's 24 years old and having a breakout season, posting a 782 OPS as a shortstop after leaving the Rays' farm system. So, at the very least, the Twins weren't fleeced in that deal. #2 – Reason to Like the Deal – The Twins NAILED a Need Was the Twins' starting pitching the biggest reason for this year's disappointing season? Maybe not. But it's within the top four for sure, and feel free to debate the order in the comments. (Your candidates: starting pitching, injuries, [insert your favorite rant here], Alex Colome). But if the Twins want to take advantage of the competitive window they have from 2022-2024, they need major-league ready (and preferably cost-controlled) pitching. That's precisely what they got in this trade. The Twins only have two starting pitchers returning next year – Kenta Maeda and Jose Berrios. This year's backup plans - Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, and Lewis Thorpe – have been injured. So have all three of the top pitching prospects in the organization: Jhoan Duran, Matt Canterino, and Jordan Balozovic. Plus, the Twins likely have only about $40M to spend on the free agent market next year. Getting back cost-controlled but solid major league pitching is no easy task in Major League Baseball. Looking at the other players the Twins could trade, very few could field that return. Nelson Cruz was their best (and maybe last) chance to do so, and they pulled it off. #2 Reason to Hate It – Nelly's Gone Losing Nelson Cruz sucks. He was a perfect fit for this team, and the team ended up being a perfect fit for him. Even though he played for the Twins from when he was 38 to 41 years old, he posted the highest OPS (984) of his career for any team. Read that again. Texas (823 OPS) and Seattle (908 OPS) revere him. But Cruz never played better for any team – unless he does so for the Rays. And I hope he does. Kick some ass, Nelly. Plus, of course, the whole leadership thing. Cruz was the MVP for both full seasons he played for the Twins, and while his performance certainly justified it, it was his teammates' testimonials that made that choice a no-doubter. He doesn't call attention to himself with histrionics or conspicuous public displays. He just led. The media didn't hear that from Cruz. They learned about it from his teammates. That's how you know it was real. Which brings us to the best reason to dislike this trade... #1 Reason to Hate It – And He Ain't Coming Back Sometimes you have to leave the past behind, and I suspect the Twins recognize that. Cruz will turn 42 years old next year, and that presents a significant risk. They also have younger bats, like Brent Rooker and maybe even Mitch Garver or Luis Arraez, that they would like to try as a designated hitter. Plus, he will likely cost any team over $10M to sign, and we've already covered the potential payroll squeeze that awaits this team. It's not impossible. The Twins love him, clearly. Cruz loves them right back. So never say never. But this season revealed so many leaks in the Twins' ship that I'll be surprised if they expend resources to bring Nellie back for one more year. It would have been nice to have him around a few more months, given that reality. #1 Reason to Like The Trade – They Did Pretty Good If you screw up the players you get back, none of it means a damn thing. We won't know for sure about these guys until their Twins' careers are over, but there are some things to be excited about with the players the Twins got in return. The lesser (right now) of the two prospects is Drew Strotman. It's worth noting that he's the higher draft pick of the two, so he was not always second fiddle. He's also on the Rays' 40-man roster, which is a negative to his value in terms of roster management, but shows just how impressed the Rays were with him just last year. He has a mid-90s fastball, a plus slider, and added an impressive cutter last year to complete the package. That potential hasn't been displayed yet this year in AAA. He's had decent results (3.39 ERA) but is walking way too many batters. But he's also just 24 years old, and this is his first taste of AAA after skipping AA altogether. The more intriguing prospect is Joe Ryan. He wasn't particularly near a top 100 prospect in preseason rankings, but it'll be interesting to see if that has changed given his performance this year in AAA. Tallying 75K in 57 IP, with just ten walks and a 0.789(!) WHIP, can change expectations. His profile is funky enough to either cast doubt or raise eyebrows. He has a mid-90s fastball that batters have trouble picking up due to his delivery. The COVID year allowed him to work with the Rays coaching staff on his secondary offerings, which seem to have improved. Plus, he is a bit of a free spirit, based on this profile of his development in Sports Illustrated. If Twins fans want a preview of him, check out the US Olympic Baseball team. He's on it. Or make your way to CHS Field in St. Paul in August. Or maybe you won't need to cross the river. He might be ready for a trial at Target Field before the year is over. The Twins did reasonably well in their first move of the trade deadline season. They made a solid and aggressive move at a good time, getting quality players and filling a need. It also sets them up nicely for more moves before the July 30th deadline. But yeah, it's a shame it had to come to this. And the team will need to wait and see if their move turns out as well as they hope. View full article

Aaron and John talk about the Minnesota Twins' contract negotiations with Byron Buxton, a terrible series in Detroit, Mitch Garver's return from the injured list, Josh Donaldson's trade value, and J.A. Happ's continued presence in the rotation. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article

Obviously, not straight up. But acquiring Donaldson would allow the Phillies to trade Bohm for some other need if they wanted to. The idea I keep coming back to is what would happen if the Twins offered Donaldson and Rogers to the Phils, for a minimal return, but making Philly eat most or all of Donaldson's contract? The Phils could add Donaldson to an already pretty potent top of the order, acquire big time help for their bullpen, and still have Bohm if they need him or if they want to trade him for more help. Meanwhile, the Twins get $30M (Donaldson + Rogers) to spend in 2022 and another $30M to spend in 2023 (Donaldson's salary plus buyout). That's enough to get two very good starting pitchers (or one superstar). Or could be enough to make them active in the free agent shortstop market.

Philadelphia fans' pinnacle isn't that they threw snowballs at Santa Claus. It's that they will defend it to this day because Santa was too skinny. The lesson? Don't disappoint the City of Brotherly Love. Well, the Phillies are. And the Twins can help with their most significant need. What's Their Situation? The Phillies declared themselves contenders before the 2019 season when they signed Bryce Harper to a 13-year(!) $330M contract. They backed it up with the fourth-highest payroll in MLB this year. And yet, they haven't made the postseason the last two years and are in danger of missing it again. This year, the NL Wild Card already looks out of reach, but the NL East is a four-team slugfest (or maybe more of a slap fight?) with the Mets, Phillies, Braves, and Nationals all firmly determined to remain within arm's reach of .500. Whichever team makes the right moves at the deadline could eke out a postseason spot. Plus, the Phillies' needs are relatively straightforward, and the Twins are a good fit for several of them. What Do They Need? It is remarkable that the Phillies somehow need the same thing every year: bullpen help. You think the Twins' bullpen has been brutal? The Phillies are twice as bad. And I mean that objectively – their relievers have a collective WPA of -3.33, almost doubling the Twins mark of -1.78. The Twins have 12 blown saves on the year, while the Phillies lead the majors in that dubious category with 22. Which Twins Are the Best Fit? All the relievers, obviously. No, not Alex Colome – even Philly's behavior at the 2018 NFC Championship game doesn't justify that level of punishment. But Hansel Robles, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, and even Caleb Thielbar would be of interest. The fact that several are team-controlled for multiple years would help the Phillies solve a seemingly perennial problem. And the fact that the Twins can offer multiple arms is even more valuable, giving them the flexibility to get numerous arms by giving up a single more valuable prospect. Every team could use some more help in their starting rotation, and the Phils are no exception. They have Zack Wheeler as an ace so far this year, and Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin have been serviceable, but a healthy Michael Pineda or Jose Berrios would obviously be of interest. Offensively, you would think a lineup with a core of Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hopkins, and Andrew McCutchen would be elite. Yet the Phils' offense is only slightly above average. Still, it's hard to find a fit. The best fit might be Josh Donaldson taking over at third base: the Phils certainly can spend money, and Alec Bohm is posting just a 641 OPS this year, has struggled defensively, and tested positive for Covid on July 11th. However, he's also just 24 years old and a legit prospect who hit .338 last year in his rookie season. It's unlikely the Phils want to block him for the next two years at third base. Other than that, the biggest weakness is at shortstop (veteran Didi Gregorius) and center field (injured Odubel Herrera). But the Twins don't have a great replacement for either unless they get an offer they can't refuse for Byron Buxton. Who Could The Twins Get Back? This is always a shot in the dark, but let's review some candidates... Alec Bohm, 3B, 24yo – The aforementioned Bohm is the Phillies' top young player, but he's their everyday third baseman. Could the Twins replace him with Donaldson and throw in some salary or arms (or both) to find a workable package? Seems a lot of moving pieces to arrange. Spencer Howard, RHP, 24yo – It's hard to say what Howard's value is these days. This offseason, he was still considered a top 50 overall starting pitching prospect. But now he's spent portions of two seasons in the majors, posted a 5.87 ERA, and was shut down with shoulder soreness in between. This is where scouting matters. Rafael Marchan, C, 22yo – It's hard to tell what the Phils' strategy was with Marchan. He was clearly rushed to the majors, meaning he's already burned two option years. He's shown no power, but he's also just 22. He's a switch-hitter, but stronger from his left side, which seems like a good fit. He just seems like the kind of guy the Twins believe they can coach up and shouldn't cost a lot. View full article

After one of the more exciting wins of the season, Aaron and John discuss the state of the team, Josh Donaldson trade rumors, Nelson Cruz's health, Mitch Garver's return, and the players the Twins' selected in the first round of MLB's Draft. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article

Aaron and John recap Josh Donaldson's eventful week and evaluate whether he and several other Twins will be traded before the deadline. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article

Aaron and John talk about Byron Buxton's latest injury, whether or not the Twins are playing well enough to change the arc of the season, eating Josh Donaldson's contract, the long-term pitching outlook taking a bad turn, and Bonnes' upcoming stand-up comedy debut. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article

Any extension at this point starts with what he'll realistically be paid as a free agent - and I don't have a great idea of what that is. Does anyone have any thoughts on that? With his talent and age (27), he could be looking at an 8 year contract if he didn't have the injury history. But with it? Will anyone give him five years? Four? Six? Five feels right to me, but I wouldn't be too surprised at anything between three and six. And the amount per year could be anywhere between $15-25M depending on how healthy he is over the next year-and-a-half. So is 5/$100M the starting point? And I'll throw in one other semi-reasonable scenario: he spends enough of 2021 and 2022 injured that he and his agent decide it would be best to just sign a "make good" deal for 2023 - which makes him accepting a qualifying offer not totally crazy.

Many of these numbers (especially arbitration) can only be estimated right now. That's why it's "back-of-the-napkin". We're trying to find a decent range of overall payroll. In the interest of transparency... - Garver is arbitration eligible, so his exact salary will not be know until February, but $3.8M is a decent estimate. It could be lower (maybe $3M?) if he doesn't play the rest of the year, but the Twins haven't placed him on the 60 day IL so I still expect him to come back. - Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, Polanco is making $5M next year. - Sano is guaranteed $9.25M but has a $2.75 million buyout on his club option in 2023. Since that is likely to be exercised in November, the Twins will need to budget $12M on him next year. - Buxton. No, it's not guaranteed. It's listed in the chart as "arbitration." It's an estimated. If he stays healthy, it would likely be higher than that, but that's a big if. - Rogers - also listed as "arbitration" above, so yes, $7.5M is a projection. - Berrios - yes, also lised as "arbitration" and as such is a projection. Finally, I'll list one other that others have mentioned and is perhaps the biggest question mark: Maeda and his low guarantee with an enormous incentive clause. You can find details on that on the "Cot's" link above.

I agree that how the team treats budget for next year is a pretty big unknown. I suspect we won't know until next March what they really chose. But $140M is at least reasonable. I'd probably put the over/under a bit lower, but not much. And FWIW - I'm not projecting that lineup. I'm just saying how things sit right now, if they had to field next year's team. I anticipate a lot of changes. I just wanted to know whether they have $20M or $60M to spend, because that might play into how they approach the trade deadline and the "reload" vs "rebuild" decision.

He's only guaranteed $3M, but his salary is heavily incentivized. If he starts most of the season, he'll likely make $9-10M.