John Bonnes

Twins’ relievers are talking about Leverage Index. 2002 Twins Geek’s head just exploded.FORT MYERS - It used to be so simple. Starting in the 80s, fans knew who the best reliever was based on how near the end of the game the player pitched in a close game. The best got paid big bucks and pitched the ninth. The 8th inning setup man was next on the hierarchy. The 7th inning person ranked third. As a fan, you could watch when they pitched, and debate with your friends who should be pitching which inning, based on trust. There is a general logic behind this. Pitching the ninth inning in a close game is more important than pitching the seventh inning. Why? Because if your team gives up the lead in the bottom of the ninth, your team loses, whereas if you give up a lead in the top of the seventh, your team still has nine outs to try and regain it. You want your best reliever at the end of the game for the same reason you want your best salesperson on your biggest accounts: the stakes are higher, you have more to lose. No wonder they’re both called closers. But about 10-15 year after this advancement, sabrmetricians started wondering if it wasn’t time to look a little deeper. Some very specific questions started being asked. Was the hierarchy really necessary when leading by three runs? Why was a closer being saved (i.e. not used) during critical extra innings? Was it really more valuable to face the bottom of the order in the ninth than the middle of the order in the eighth? The sabrmetricians had numbers on their side, but the system had something far more valuable: a lot of people entrenched and making money from the existing system. Closers were handsomely paid, sometimes three or four times as much as their teammates. Managers who strayed from the formula were chum if didn’t work, and close games can be fickle mistresses. Managers weren’t necessarily much better if it did work, as egos (and paychecks) could be at risk if the all-important “save” statistic was challenged. But it is changing, and Twins fans are seeing it up close since Rocco Baldelli started managing the team. “I think focusing more on going out there and how to get the outs is significantly more important than the conversation of role,” Baldelli said this week, talking about his bullpen. “We're focused on the first part of that. We are focused on the wins and how to get the outs.” Of course, that’s the sort of thing every manager says, but the last couple seasons of usage suggest it’s not just words. Taylor Rogers has mostly been the closer, but in 2019, he was often brought into games in the eighth inning, to face a more left-handed lineup. Towards the end of last year, he and Sergio Romo tag-teamed the ninth innings. But neither of them was the most valuable Twins reliever, and in fact neither of them was particularly close. That title belongs to Tyler Duffey, who never pitched a ninth inning, and only pitched in the eighth inning three times, only twice in a close game. But he came into games in equally critical situations, and it can be shown using an advanced statistic called Leverage Index (LI). It’s a statistic that I was surprised to find out that Duffey knows when he mentioned in his introductory interview this week. When asked about being satisfied with his earlier-inning fireman roll in the bullpen, Duffey replied “When you realize that an inning’s an inning, and how there’s a leverage index and all these things that really put more value into pitchers, you realize that inning you come in in the seventh and get the ‘three’ hitter out to finish an inning, that out may be so much more valuable than the eighth inning facing seven-eight-nine.” He’s right, of course, but that’s a new school of thought in MLB. And a new statistic. If Tyler Duffey and the Twins are talking about Leverage Index, then we certainly should be. We’ll remedy that tomorrow. Next - Part 2: Leverage Index and Your Blood Pressure Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins filling out the rotation with Matt Shoemaker, how another option changes Lewis Thorpe's outlook, details of the Saints' first season as a Twins affiliate, Luis Arraez in left field, low-maintenance individuals, and Sergio Romo signing with Oakland. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Now Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins have come to an agreement with starting pitcher Matt Shoemaker on a one-year deal, according to Jeff Passan. Shoemaker will likely compete for the fifth spot in the Twins rotation with Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe.Shoemaker is a 34-year-old with a 3.86 ERA in 602 major-league innings. He's made 112 appearances in the big leagues, including 104 starts. It was known that the Twins had an offer out to him. His one-year deal includes $250K in incentives on top of a $2 million base, according to Passan. Shoemaker is a good story, having gone unselected in the 2008 draft before signing with the Angels, working his way up through the minors, and finishing second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2014 when he went 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA. The righty's career has since been marred by injury issues, and he's made just 18 total starts since 2017, but he continues to perform well when on the mound. Andrew Thares wrote last week about why Shoemaker is an intriguing fit for the Twins. For instance, in 2020, Shoemaker increased his fastball's average velocity 1.6% to match the highest velocity of his career. And that paid dividends: "Additionally, his fastball spike started to pay some dividends in the advanced metrics, particularly with his Four-seamer, where his expected wOBA dropped from a career .390 down to just .214 in 2020 on that pitch." Thares also looked at Shoemaker's pitch usage, focusing on those pitchers which gave up home runs, which was his biggest issue in last year. He wonders why they didn't feature the four-seam fastball more.... "Instead, they continued to focus the majority of his fastball usage on his sinker (25.6% of pitches in 2020), which has been a flat-out awful pitch for the almost the entirety of Shoemaker’s career. This is where an opportunity lies for the Twins to take advantage of. If they simply cut the usage of Shoemaker’s awful sinker in favor of what appears to be a much improved four-seamer, it would instantly bring his game to a whole new level. Now that we know the details of the contract, Thares' conclusion reads even stronger: "You factor all of that in with the Twins ability to get the absolute most out of pitchers when other couldn’t (just look at Kenta Maeda last year as an example) and the Twins could have themselves a more than credible option to compete for a spot in the Twins starting rotation this spring, and he would likely be doing so on a cheap, low-risk deal for the Twins." Click over to read the whole analysis. When you're done, since Twins Daily has the best and most generous Twins community, share your thoughts and analysis in the comments! Twins Daily's Tom Froemming shared some highlights of Shoemaker's pitches and additional details of his career to date in the video below. Click here to view the article

On the verge of spring training, Aaron and John discuss Nelson Cruz's attitude after signing a one-year deal, the teams the St. Paul Saints will play in 2021, why PECOTA loves the Minnesota Twins and hates the White Sox, and Aaron's long road to BBWAA membership. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Now Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about a very busy week that saw the Twins re-sign Nelson Cruz, sign Alex Colome, and add two hard-throwing pitchers to the bullpen mix, plus a breakdown of the payroll situation and the moves that might still be to come. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Now Click here to view the article

The big question now is how much more they add. Cruz (assuming no big regression) plus Simmons means a step forward for this team. They're a plus team in every department now.

After an offseason of glacial negotiations that were described at one point as a 'staring contest,' the Twins and Nelson Cruz finally got it done on Tuesday night. Dan Hayes reports that Minnesota has reached agreement with the 40-year-old DH on a one-year, $13 million contract.The Athletic's intrepid beat man Dan Hayes was all over this one, reporting over the weekend that the Twins and Cruz had re-engaged after a period of inactivity. "While the latest development doesn’t guarantee anything gets completed," Hayes wrote, "the move to reconnect demonstrates that the Twins and Cruz understand the need for urgency in determining whether a new agreement can be reached." Just a few days later, it's a done deal. The Twins waited out Cruz and basically got him on the terms they wanted: a one-year pact at a reasonable salary that still gives them flexibility for further additions. Of course, there's no overstating how important Cruz has been to the Twins over these past two seasons. He was chosen as the team's Most Valuable Player in both 2019 and 2020, slashing .308/.394/.626 with 57 home runs and 141 RBIs in 173 games. During that span, he has ranked second among all MLB hitters in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS, trailing only Mike Trout in each category. Needless to say, the Twins' lineup card looks a whole lot better with the elite slugger penciled in. And his immensely positive impact goes beyond the bat – Cruz is lauded as a key figure in the clubhouse and community. Last summer he received the 2020 Muhammad Ali Sports Humanitarian Award in recognition of his amazing charitable work and generosity. That is not to say this signing isn't without risk. Cruz's $13 million salary commitment will likely limit what the Twins can do to address their remaining needs in the rotation and bullpen. He's the primest of prime regression candidates, set to turn 41 in July and having shown signs of wear down the stretch in 2020. Additionally, his inability to play anywhere other than DH (and the need to have him out there as much as possible) will be a constraint for Rocco Baldelli to deal with as he tries to keep his other regulars fresh, and utility man Luis Arráez in the lineup. But at the end of the day, the cons are outweighed by the pros for this seasoned and highly respected slugger. Even if he's not quite as good as he has been the past two years, Cruz can easily be one of the league's most imposing hitters and a big asset in the heart of the lineup. As Minnesota's unquestioned leader, Cruz has helped power the Twins to a .617 winning percentage and back-to-back division titles, but not one victory in the postseason. Now he'll get a chance to settle some unfinished business, with a reconfigured roster that will still feel plenty familiar thanks to his presence. Having finally resolved their biggest offseason sticking point, the Twins can feel pretty good about the state of their lineup. While they may still add another outfielder or infield depth, and trades cannot be ruled out, the offense is looking fairly set. Now, attention turns to the pitching staff. The effective payroll stands at around $125 million with Cruz's addition. Check back into Twins Daily for more details and analysis of this big signing, and share your initial reactions in the comments below. Nelly's back. Let's go. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Aaron and John discuss the Twins' new shortstop Andrelton Simmons, new contract talks with Nelson Cruz, losing Eddie Rosario to Cleveland and why they miss the Winter Meltdown. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen To Episode 511 Here Now Click here to view the article

This would’ve been Winter Meltdown week. We’re bummed we can’t all gather in one room, but we wanted to keep the tradition alive and do some good, too. So we're offering our 2021 Winter Meltdown Pint Glasses for sale for $20, and every penny we get will be going to a non-profit for local hospitality industry workers impacted by the pandemic.This would’ve been our 8th Winter Meltdown, which has included guests from Scott Erickson in 2014 through Kent Hrbek and Trevor Plouffe last year. The pint glasses have been a tradition, and you can see Brock Beauchamp’s design nails the reality of the situation: we’ve all been impacted. But certainly hospitality industry workers f received more than their fair share of the economic impact. They’ve certainly treated us well for the previous seven Meltdowns, so this one will be for them. You can order this year’s pint glass here. We hope you enjoy its use as much as you’ve enjoyed the previous seven, and we further hope we can reconnect in person at some Twins games this summer. In the meantime, be safe and Win Twins. Buy your 2021 Winter Meltdown Pint Glass Here! Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins signing veteran left-hander J.A. Happ for $8 million, re-set the free agent market for pitchers, big bats, and infielders, react to several potential Twins targets signing elsewhere, and freak out about how soon spring training starts. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Listen Here Now Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about why Twins fans shouldn't be freaking out over the team's lack of moves, what's left of the free agent market once they do start spending, two new international prospects worth keeping tabs on, reactions to Corey Kluber and Liam Hendriks signing elsewhere, and getting unblocked on Twitter. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Listen Here Now Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about Cleveland trading Francisco Lindor and what it means for the Twins, the latest on Nelson Cruz, the pros and cons of long-term contracts, another good reliever off the board, why the offseason is still dragging on so slowly, and why they can't remember your name. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. LISTEN HERE NOW Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins signing Hansel Robles, the remaining free agent reliever market and how high they should be shooting, Luis Arraez trade speculation, Terry Ryan's promotion in Philadelphia, and the wisdom of long-term deals. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. To Listen, Click Here Click here to view the article

This is cool. Is there a link to the Sparkman projection system, or to the work that Connor did?