John Bonnes

I also like this story Glunn. Thanks. I wondered if we couldn't find some better pitchers, so I looked up the top prospects according to Baseball Prospectus. The have four pitchers in tehir top 9 and EVERY ONE of them is injured right now: three with elbow injuries and one who "feels funny." Wow. And we thought we had it bad.

Aaron and John talk about once again rooting for the worst team in the league, why Francisco Liriano is like religion, what defines an "A" or "B" prospect in trade talks, how passing on Mark Appel makes even more sense now, celebrating our 50th episode, Matt Capps' return, Carl Pavano's non-return, Aaron's refined drinking habits, and a whole bunch of mailbag questions from listeners via Twitter. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about once again rooting for the worst team in the league, why Francisco Liriano is like religion, what defines an "A" or "B" prospect in trade talks, how passing on Mark Appel makes even more sense now, celebrating our 50th episode, Matt Capps' return, Carl Pavano's non-return, Aaron's refined drinking habits, and a whole bunch of mailbag questions from listeners via Twitter. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

The Big Picture The Pirates are in first place at the All-Star Break. Oops - hold on. I didn’t say that with the right emphasis. Let me try again. The PIRATES are in FIRST F*$%ING PLACE at the ALL-STAR BREAK. Wha? How? That’s a fair question, considering their offense has scored 345 runs this year, 21st in the majors. The answer is that their pitching and defense has been outstanding, resulting in the 5th best team ERA in the league. Why They Will Trade With The Twins For starters, they’re “in a buying mode” according to their manager. And they’re looking for offense. You can almost throw a dart and find a spot in the lineup that needs improving. That said, the Pirates leadoff spot has been terrible this year, with a combined .228 batting average and .272 on-base percentage. That OBP ranks 29th in the major leagues. Recently they turned leadoff duties to a guy they just picked up off of waivers. It’s that bad. Denard Span probably wouldn’t play center field in Pittsburgh because their center fielder, Andrew McCutcheon, is having an enormous year. However, left fielder Jose Tabata was just sent down to AAA. He’ll be back because he signed a six-year deal with the Pirates, but there is also right field, where Twins castoff Garret Jones is platooning with …well, its not clear day-to-day that there is a good option for the other half of that platoon. Or that Jones wouldn’t just be better served off the bench. So Span fills a desperate need, improves the Pirates corner outfield defense and does so long-term at a reasonable salary, which is always a factor for the financially strapped Steel City. Why They Won’t Trade With the Twins Lately, they’ve been tied to two much bigger names: Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks and Carlos Quentin of the Padres. But the Pirates don’t seem to match up well with the Diamondbacks, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. As for Quentin, the Pirates would probably love to have him bat behind McCutcheon to protect the budding superstar, but Quentin is also a free agent at the end of the year. And there are several other teams in on Quentin, including the Reds who the Pirates are trying to fend off. So it might come down to which the Pirates prefer – big and gone or steady and staying. Or Span could be a defensive move if the Reds get Quentin. Or the Pirates could decide one doesn’t preclude the other. It shouldn’t. This lineup needs plenty of help. Conclusion The trade market may sort itself out very late this year as teams take as much time as they can to see if they are “in it” or not. Of the possible fits for the Pirates, Denard Span is near the top of the list. And as you can see below, the Pirates have plenty of pitching. There are reasons for optimism here. Trade Targets Jameson Taillon – RHP He’s a 20-year-old blue chip starting pitching prospect whose numbers (High A - 4.05 ERA and 73K in 86.2 IP) don’t reflect his stuff. Pittsburgh have instructed him to command his fastball rather than striking out hitters with his breaking ball. I’m sure the Twins will ask about him. I doubt they’ll get him, unless the bidding turns fierce. Jeff Locke – LHP Locke had a similar year to Liam Hendriks in 2011. He showed a lot of promise in AA, made just five starts in AAA and then was promoted as a September callup. Not too surprisingly, he was disappointing. This year the Pirates are stashing the 24-year-old left-hander in AAA to be used as major league filler and he’s having a very good year: 2.92 ERA, 84K and 23 BB in 95.2 IP. The looks to me like a middle-of-the-rotation arm that could be ready as soon as the fall, which is a nice fit for the Twins. (But then I still feel the same way about Hendriks.) Thanks to Jeremy Nygaard for this next name... Kyle McPherson – RHP He’s 24, and started the year late in AA because of a shoulder problem, but there is no reason to think he’ll stay there long. He dominated AA the second half of last year en route to being the Bucs minor league pitcher of the year. He’s got a good strikeout rate and excellent control – exactly the kind of guy the Twins would target. Baseball America ranked him as the 6th best prospect in the Pirates system this year. Luis Heredia – RHP A 6’ 6”, 18-year-old, high-upside (his fastball is already in the low 90s) pitcher who is still several years away from the majors and will be limited to rookie ball this year. Stetson Allie – RHP Here’s a wild card – emphasis on “wild.” The 21-year-old right-hander was the Bucs second round pick just a year ago. Unfortunately, his 100 mph fastball doesn’t do anyone any good if it can’t find the plate. Recently, it got bad enough that they demoted him to rookie ball - and had him switch to third base. If the Twins think they can “fix” him, like they did Alex Wimmers, maybe he could be an interesting secondary piece to fill out a trade package.

The Big Picture The Pirates are in first place at the All-Star Break. Oops - hold on. I didn’t say that with the right emphasis. Let me try again. The PIRATES are in FIRST F*$%ING PLACE at the ALL-STAR BREAK. Wha? How? That’s a fair question, considering their offense has scored 345 runs this year, 21st in the majors. The answer is that their pitching and defense has been outstanding, resulting in the 5th best team ERA in the league. Why They Will Trade With The Twins For starters, they’re “in a buying mode” according to their manager. And they’re looking for offense. You can almost throw a dart and find a spot in the lineup that needs improving. That said, the Pirates leadoff spot has been terrible this year, with a combined .228 batting average and .272 on-base percentage. That OBP ranks 29th in the major leagues. Recently they turned leadoff duties to a guy they just picked up off of waivers. It’s that bad. Denard Span probably wouldn’t play center field in Pittsburgh because their center fielder, Andrew McCutcheon, is having an enormous year. However, left fielder Jose Tabata was just sent down to AAA. He’ll be back because he signed a six-year deal with the Pirates, but there is also right field, where Twins castoff Garret Jones is platooning with …well, its not clear day-to-day that there is a good option for the other half of that platoon. Or that Jones wouldn’t just be better served off the bench. So Span fills a desperate need, improves the Pirates corner outfield defense and does so long-term at a reasonable salary, which is always a factor for the financially strapped Steel City. Why They Won’t Trade With the Twins Lately, they’ve been tied to two much bigger names: Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks and Carlos Quentin of the Padres. But the Pirates don’t seem to match up well with the Diamondbacks, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. As for Quentin, the Pirates would probably love to have him bat behind McCutcheon to protect the budding superstar, but Quentin is also a free agent at the end of the year. And there are several other teams in on Quentin, including the Reds who the Pirates are trying to fend off. So it might come down to which the Pirates prefer – big and gone or steady and staying. Or Span could be a defensive move if the Reds get Quentin. Or the Pirates could decide one doesn’t preclude the other. It shouldn’t. This lineup needs plenty of help. Conclusion The trade market may sort itself out very late this year as teams take as much time as they can to see if they are “in it” or not. Of the possible fits for the Pirates, Denard Span is near the top of the list. And as you can see below, the Pirates have plenty of pitching. There are reasons for optimism here. Trade Targets Jameson Taillon – RHP He’s a 20-year-old blue chip starting pitching prospect whose numbers (High A - 4.05 ERA and 73K in 86.2 IP) don’t reflect his stuff. Pittsburgh have instructed him to command his fastball rather than striking out hitters with his breaking ball. I’m sure the Twins will ask about him. I doubt they’ll get him, unless the bidding turns fierce. Jeff Locke – LHP Locke had a similar year to Liam Hendriks in 2011. He showed a lot of promise in AA, made just five starts in AAA and then was promoted as a September callup. Not too surprisingly, he was disappointing. This year the Pirates are stashing the 24-year-old left-hander in AAA to be used as major league filler and he’s having a very good year: 2.92 ERA, 84K and 23 BB in 95.2 IP. The looks to me like a middle-of-the-rotation arm that could be ready as soon as the fall, which is a nice fit for the Twins. (But then I still feel the same way about Hendriks.) Thanks to Jeremy Nygaard for this next name... Kyle McPherson – RHP He’s 24, and started the year late in AA because of a shoulder problem, but there is no reason to think he’ll stay there long. He dominated AA the second half of last year en route to being the Bucs minor league pitcher of the year. He’s got a good strikeout rate and excellent control – exactly the kind of guy the Twins would target. Baseball America ranked him as the 6th best prospect in the Pirates system this year. Luis Heredia – RHP A 6’ 6”, 18-year-old, high-upside (his fastball is already in the low 90s) pitcher who is still several years away from the majors and will be limited to rookie ball this year. Stetson Allie – RHP Here’s a wild card – emphasis on “wild.” The 21-year-old right-hander was the Bucs second round pick just a year ago. Unfortunately, his 100 mph fastball doesn’t do anyone any good if it can’t find the plate. Recently, it got bad enough that they demoted him to rookie ball - and had him switch to third base. If the Twins think they can “fix” him, like they did Alex Wimmers, maybe he could be an interesting secondary piece to fill out a trade package.

How low can it go? Not a whole lot lower. According to USAToday, the Minnesota Twins dropped their payroll $18.5M from last year ($112M) to this year ($94M). And while the mantra coming out of Target Field is that “payroll isn’t that important” ask youself: where this team would be with another $18.5M worth of starting pitching? That’s the bad news, but it’s old bad news. The worse (and new) news is that the team is again in last place and attendance is down again. Would that mean further payroll cuts? If it does, there are only so deep they can cut, because barring some trades, a quick-and-dirty analysis shows the Twins are committed to at least a $76M payroll. The back-of-the-napkin details are at the bottom. If the Twins don’t cut payroll at all, that gives them just $18M to put towards acquiring two or three starting pitchers. And if they do? Then you can expect a lot more of what we’ve seen this year: cycling through AAA starting pitchers in the hopes they can find someone who sticks. Because AAA starting pitchers will be all they can afford. I suspect it also means that any fantasies of hanging onto Francisco Liriano. At the very least, it makes it difficult to imagine the Twins offering him a $12.5M one-year contract to make sure the Twins get draft picks as he walks as a free agent. That much liquid payroll can’t be sucked up by just one player where there are so many gaps in the rotation. That is, if there is any available. If the Twins cut payroll again, Twins fans could face the very grim reality of watching a starting rotation that is actually worse that this years squad, which ranks 29th in ERA in the majors. How low can it go? Not a whole lot lower. But low enough. [ATTACH=CONFIG]1506[/ATTACH]

Aaron and John talk about the endless game of musical pitchers, revisit their preseason over/under predictions, answer Twitter questions from listeners, try to decide who comes off worse owning the same shirt, wonder if Nick Blackburn is worth having in the 2013 plans, review Samuel Deduno's first start, and try to keep Aaron from coughing up a lung. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about the endless game of musical pitchers, revisit their preseason over/under predictions, answer Twitter questions from listeners, try to decide who comes off worse owning the same shirt, wonder if Nick Blackburn is worth having in the 2013 plans, review Samuel Deduno's first start, and try to keep Aaron from coughing up a lung. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

If the Twins want to sign Francisco Liriano to an extension, it will need to be in the parameters of what Liriano will make on the free agent market this winter. But its hard to know even roughly how much he’ll command. Partly that’s because of his mercurial performance. But that problem is compounded by a free agent class that is unprecedented in pitching depth. It starts with two 28-year-olds, right-hander Zach Greinke and left-hander Cole Hamels that are both better than anyone in last year’s class. They both could reach nine figure deals with yearly salaries that approach $20M per year. But the really remarkable variable about the free agent class is the next level. There is a glut of “potential” star pitchers and Liriano falls into that class. Anibal Sanchez – The Marlins right-hander is just 28, and has thrown 195+ innings with a mid 3s ERA the last two years. He looks similarly strong this year. Shaun Marcum – The Brewers 30-year-old right-hander has a 3.56 ERA over the last three years and has averaged about 200 innings the last two of years. But lately he’s shelved with a sore elbow. Jake Peavy - The 2007 Cy Young winner has been injured a lot the past several years, but has finally regained his form with the White Sox with a 2.96 ERA (and 101 K). Colby Lewis – the Rangers right-hander who has struck out 455 batters and in 500 innings over the last 2.5 years – but who is now out with “forearm tightness”. Dan Haren – After posting an ERA of 3.08 over the last two years with the Angels, the 31-year-old right-hander struggled this year. He recently admitted he’s had lower back pain all season and may find the DL. His performance over the last couple of months may determine if the Angels pick up his $15M option. Ervin Santana – Like Liriano, Santana has had good years and bad years. The last two, where he threw 451.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA were very good years. This year, where he has a 5.12 ERA is not so much. He’s not even 30 yet. Liriano, who currently has 5.40 ERA and 76K in 76.2 IP slots in somewhere among these pitchers. He’s probably been the least consisten, but he’s also one of the youngest. He has never posted the inning totals that these guys have. But he’s also the only left-hander in this group. Finally, it’s also worth noting that I haven’t included a slew of other pitchers, some of whom might even be more enticing to teams looking for “inning eaters”: Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Kevin Correia, Derek Lowe, Carlos Zambrano, Fausto Carmona and Daisuke Matsuzaka. So how much could Liriano expect, provided he continues to be effective? The guys I bullet pointed above could all expect multiyear offers for $10M+ per year any other year. Injuries and late season performances could change that. So could the depth of the market. Liriano would likely be on the low end of that group, but his age could be a factor in allowing a longer-term deal. Three years and $27M “feels” about right. But there are a ton of unknowns. If some teams really want a left-hander, he could go higher. If the market dries up after the first half dozen guys sign, he could go lower or for fewer years. Plus, there is his performance in July through September. If he wants to cash in now and avoid all that, one would think the price of an extension might be a little lower. But there is another lesson here too. The Twins, should they choose to spend some money, have a historically deep free agent class to rebuild their rotation. While the focus is likely to be Greinke or Hamels, there is a lot of value in that next tier – someone is going to fall out of that group and get a lower contract than we anticipate. And there are a lot of other average pitchers (such as Pavano) who might find themselves standing without a chair when the music stops. If the Twins choose to try and extend Liriano, they place their bet early. It might make more sense to wait until the market sorts itself out and be aggressive later.

If the Twins want to sign Francisco Liriano to an extension, it will need to be in the parameters of what Liriano will make on the free agent market this winter. But its hard to know even roughly how much he’ll command. Partly that’s because of his mercurial performance. But that problem is compounded by a free agent class that is unprecedented in pitching depth. It starts with two 28-year-olds, right-hander Zach Greinke and left-hander Cole Hamels that are both better than anyone in last year’s class. They both could reach nine figure deals with yearly salaries that approach $20M per year. But the really remarkable variable about the free agent class is the next level. There is a glut of “potential” star pitchers and Liriano falls into that class. Anibal Sanchez – The Marlins right-hander is just 28, and has thrown 195+ innings with a mid 3s ERA the last two years. He looks similarly strong this year. Shaun Marcum – The Brewers 30-year-old right-hander has a 3.56 ERA over the last three years and has averaged about 200 innings the last two of years. But lately he’s shelved with a sore elbow. Jake Peavy - The 2007 Cy Young winner has been injured a lot the past several years, but has finally regained his form with the White Sox with a 2.96 ERA (and 101 K). Colby Lewis – the Rangers right-hander who has struck out 455 batters and in 500 innings over the last 2.5 years – but who is now out with “forearm tightness”. Dan Haren – After posting an ERA of 3.08 over the last two years with the Angels, the 31-year-old right-hander struggled this year. He recently admitted he’s had lower back pain all season and may find the DL. His performance over the last couple of months may determine if the Angels pick up his $15M option. Ervin Santana – Like Liriano, Santana has had good years and bad years. The last two, where he threw 451.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA were very good years. This year, where he has a 5.12 ERA is not so much. He’s not even 30 yet. Liriano, who currently has 5.40 ERA and 76K in 76.2 IP slots in somewhere among these pitchers. He’s probably been the least consisten, but he’s also one of the youngest. He has never posted the inning totals that these guys have. But he’s also the only left-hander in this group. Finally, it’s also worth noting that I haven’t included a slew of other pitchers, some of whom might even be more enticing to teams looking for “inning eaters”: Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Kevin Correia, Derek Lowe, Carlos Zambrano, Fausto Carmona and Daisuke Matsuzaka. So how much could Liriano expect, provided he continues to be effective? The guys I bullet pointed above could all expect multiyear offers for $10M+ per year any other year. Injuries and late season performances could change that. So could the depth of the market. Liriano would likely be on the low end of that group, but his age could be a factor in allowing a longer-term deal. Three years and $27M “feels” about right. But there are a ton of unknowns. If some teams really want a left-hander, he could go higher. If the market dries up after the first half dozen guys sign, he could go lower or for fewer years. Plus, there is his performance in July through September. If he wants to cash in now and avoid all that, one would think the price of an extension might be a little lower. But there is another lesson here too. The Twins, should they choose to spend some money, have a historically deep free agent class to rebuild their rotation. While the focus is likely to be Greinke or Hamels, there is a lot of value in that next tier – someone is going to fall out of that group and get a lower contract than we anticipate. And there are a lot of other average pitchers (such as Pavano) who might find themselves standing without a chair when the music stops. If the Twins choose to try and extend Liriano, they place their bet early. It might make more sense to wait until the market sorts itself out and be aggressive later.

The Big Picture In the hyper-competitive NL East, the Braves are 4.5 games back of the division leading Nationals. But they’re also just one game back of the second wild-card spot, which happens to be shared by division rival New York Mets. Atlanta is reportedly searching for a top starting pitcher. That’s unusual ground for them – just last year they ranked 4th in MLB in ERA – but some injuries and regression by youngsters have them looking for rotation help. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Braves are somewhat like the Twins right now, with two solid starters – Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson – followed by a whole lot of finger-crossing. They’ve been linked to just about every possibly available starting pitcher on the market already. That includes Francisco Liriano, since Braves scout Jim Fregosi (which are four words that should get ’93 Phils fans a little worked up) was at Sunday’s game, though he claimed the Braves weren’t interested in Liriano. But the best reason they match up with the Twins isn’t because of what they need as much as what they can offer – young pitching. One of the guys struggling in their rotation right now is 24-year-old left-hander Mike Minor, who is sporting a 6.20 ERA. But last year he struck out 99 batters in 100.2 inning in AAA, and almost matched that 1:1 ratio in 15 games in the majors. There are at least two other major-league-ready young pitchers that could be available for whoever can provide a high-end starter. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins Pay a lot of attention to this next paragraph. Or don't, since I suspect I’m going to be repeating it in a lot of these profiles. It looks like there could be an awful lot of awful good starting pitchers available at the trade deadline this year. Yes, there could be a lot more “buyers” than “sellers,” but there are fewer buyers with the will or need to make a big trade for a starting pitcher. The Brewers are rumored to be fielding calls for both Zach Greinke and (if he gets healthy) Shawn Marcum. The Phillies have started calling teams about Cole Hamels. The Cubs will certainly listen to offers for Matt Garza. Liriano probably slots behind all of those guys and maybe among some other names like Seattle’s Jason Vargas. However, one thing that Liriano does have going for him to facilitate a trade to the Braves: he’s left-handed. Atlanta hasn’t indicated they have a preference, but the Nationals team they’re chasing is hitting just .233 vs southpaws this year, 3rd worst in the majors. Conclusion There are a lot of other teams that would like to add Liriano to their rotation, and there are a lot of other pitchers that could help the Braves. But the Twins and Braves make a good fit both in terms of what is given and what is received. Don’t be surprised if rumors surrounding these two teams get louder as the deadline approaches. Possible Trade Targets Mike Minor – LHP He’s just 24. He’s left-handed. He has very little service time. He was the seventh overall pick in the 2009 draft. And he has struck out 192 in 209 IP in the majors. But he’s sporting a 6.20 ERA this year (5.34 career) and is giving up WAY too many home runs. Sounds like an awfully good fit for Target Field. It’s a little hard to believe the Twins could get him straight up for Liriano, but perhaps they could include their own prospect to balance out the deal? Randall Delgado – RHP Here’s another one of the Braves promising pitching prospects that is struggling in the majors this year. Delgado’s problem this year has been control and that’s never been a particularly strong suit of his. But he’s just 21 years old and was rushed to the majors with only four starts in AAA. He also has 569 Ks in his 538 innings in the minors and a fastball that averaged 92.4 mph last year. Julio Teheran – RHP He’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors with mid-90s stuff – and yet the Braves are looking for outside help? Yep. He’s just 21 years old. His strikeout rate in AAA doesn’t jump off the page and his brief callup last year (5.03 ERA w 10K and 8BB in 19.2 IP) was underwhelming. But again – he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. And he’s in AAA. If the Braves don’t want to suffer through his growing pains, I know a team that will be happy to. A few more… Sean Gilmartin - LHP Stop me if this sounds like someone the Twins would like. Last year’s first round pick by the Braves projects as a middle of the rotation starter with outstanding control. The 6’2” southpaw is currently in AA. Zeke Spruill – RHP Also in AA, the 6’5” right-hander is positioning himself for a midyear promotion to AAA. With 63K in 98 IP, he doesn’t have outstanding stuff, but his control could make him a mid-rotation starter. Carlos Perez – LHP Only 19 and only in A-ball (again) and he’s not exactly thriving there. But he’s got a 90mph sinker that, if he can harness it, could rocket him up the ladder. He sounds a little bit like Liriano, actually. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP The 21-year-old fireballer rocketed through the organization to impact Atlanta’s bullpen last year. Unfortunately, it looks like that is his future, and it’s a future at least a year away as he was shelved for Tommy John surgery this March.

The Big Picture In the hyper-competitive NL East, the Braves are 4.5 games back of the division leading Nationals. But they’re also just one game back of the second wild-card spot, which happens to be shared by division rival New York Mets. Atlanta is reportedly searching for a top starting pitcher. That’s unusual ground for them – just last year they ranked 4th in MLB in ERA – but some injuries and regression by youngsters have them looking for rotation help. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Braves are somewhat like the Twins right now, with two solid starters – Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson – followed by a whole lot of finger-crossing. They’ve been linked to just about every possibly available starting pitcher on the market already. That includes Francisco Liriano, since Braves scout Jim Fregosi (which are four words that should get ’93 Phils fans a little worked up) was at Sunday’s game, though he claimed the Braves weren’t interested in Liriano. But the best reason they match up with the Twins isn’t because of what they need as much as what they can offer – young pitching. One of the guys struggling in their rotation right now is 24-year-old left-hander Mike Minor, who is sporting a 6.20 ERA. But last year he struck out 99 batters in 100.2 inning in AAA, and almost matched that 1:1 ratio in 15 games in the majors. There are at least two other major-league-ready young pitchers that could be available for whoever can provide a high-end starter. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins Pay a lot of attention to this next paragraph. Or don't, since I suspect I’m going to be repeating it in a lot of these profiles. It looks like there could be an awful lot of awful good starting pitchers available at the trade deadline this year. Yes, there could be a lot more “buyers” than “sellers,” but there are fewer buyers with the will or need to make a big trade for a starting pitcher. The Brewers are rumored to be fielding calls for both Zach Greinke and (if he gets healthy) Shawn Marcum. The Phillies have started calling teams about Cole Hamels. The Cubs will certainly listen to offers for Matt Garza. Liriano probably slots behind all of those guys and maybe among some other names like Seattle’s Jason Vargas. However, one thing that Liriano does have going for him to facilitate a trade to the Braves: he’s left-handed. Atlanta hasn’t indicated they have a preference, but the Nationals team they’re chasing is hitting just .233 vs southpaws this year, 3rd worst in the majors. Conclusion There are a lot of other teams that would like to add Liriano to their rotation, and there are a lot of other pitchers that could help the Braves. But the Twins and Braves make a good fit both in terms of what is given and what is received. Don’t be surprised if rumors surrounding these two teams get louder as the deadline approaches. Possible Trade Targets Mike Minor – LHP He’s just 24. He’s left-handed. He has very little service time. He was the seventh overall pick in the 2009 draft. And he has struck out 192 in 209 IP in the majors. But he’s sporting a 6.20 ERA this year (5.34 career) and is giving up WAY too many home runs. Sounds like an awfully good fit for Target Field. It’s a little hard to believe the Twins could get him straight up for Liriano, but perhaps they could include their own prospect to balance out the deal? Randall Delgado – RHP Here’s another one of the Braves promising pitching prospects that is struggling in the majors this year. Delgado’s problem this year has been control and that’s never been a particularly strong suit of his. But he’s just 21 years old and was rushed to the majors with only four starts in AAA. He also has 569 Ks in his 538 innings in the minors and a fastball that averaged 92.4 mph last year. Julio Teheran – RHP He’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors with mid-90s stuff – and yet the Braves are looking for outside help? Yep. He’s just 21 years old. His strikeout rate in AAA doesn’t jump off the page and his brief callup last year (5.03 ERA w 10K and 8BB in 19.2 IP) was underwhelming. But again – he’s one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. And he’s in AAA. If the Braves don’t want to suffer through his growing pains, I know a team that will be happy to. A few more… Sean Gilmartin - LHP Stop me if this sounds like someone the Twins would like. Last year’s first round pick by the Braves projects as a middle of the rotation starter with outstanding control. The 6’2” southpaw is currently in AA. Zeke Spruill – RHP Also in AA, the 6’5” right-hander is positioning himself for a midyear promotion to AAA. With 63K in 98 IP, he doesn’t have outstanding stuff, but his control could make him a mid-rotation starter. Carlos Perez – LHP Only 19 and only in A-ball (again) and he’s not exactly thriving there. But he’s got a 90mph sinker that, if he can harness it, could rocket him up the ladder. He sounds a little bit like Liriano, actually. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP The 21-year-old fireballer rocketed through the organization to impact Atlanta’s bullpen last year. Unfortunately, it looks like that is his future, and it’s a future at least a year away as he was shelved for Tommy John surgery this March.

Aaron and John talk about Joe Mauer making the All-Star team while Josh Willingham got snubbed, Aaron's vodka-filled experience at the SABR convention in Minneapolis, Ryan Doumit's contract extension, John returning from his East Coast ballpark tour, Trevor Plouffe staying hot, whether the Twins should be in full-on sell mode, the Francisco Liriano dilemma, and why Pizza Luce at 3:00 am is a bad life decision. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about Joe Mauer making the All-Star team while Josh Willingham got snubbed, Aaron's vodka-filled experience at the SABR convention in Minneapolis, Ryan Doumit's contract extension, John returning from his East Coast ballpark tour, Trevor Plouffe staying hot, whether the Twins should be in full-on sell mode, the Francisco Liriano dilemma, and why Pizza Luce at 3:00 am is a bad life decision. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

I like this post. Except for the defensive indifference, I completely agree with thes.

The Big Picture Stop me if this sounds familiar. A team with championship aspirations faces a slew of injuries to their best players. They find themselves last in their division but hope that the players return will boost them back into contention. At the trade deadline they must make a tough decision: stick to the plan or write off a season in a championship era whose window could be closing. Yep - the Phillies are having the year the Twins had last year. But instead of a fan base of Minnesota stoics, they play in the City of Brotherly Love. You can imagine how pleasant that is. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Phillies are walking a delicate line. Despite injuries to superstar second baseman Chase Utley, first baseman Ryan Howard and ace pitcher Roy Halladay, the Philadelphia is only six games under .500 and just 5.5 games back of the wild card. They hope to have Utley back on Wednesday, Howard beginning a rehab assignment this week and Halladay returning in the middle of July. If they get healthy, and the Phils simply tread water for the next month, it will be awfully hard for them to give up on the season. Traditionally, the Phillies have had trouble finding good right-handed hitting to offset Utley and Howard’s left-handed bats. But they traded for Hunter Pence last year and he has an 803 OPS and catcher Carlos Ruiz has a (unsustainable) 978 OPS to lead the team. Add in that Juan Pierre is playing left field (and hitting .322) and it’s hard to see a fit for Josh Willingham, though in previous years he would’ve been an obvious fit. But what if Howard can’t come back strong, or if this injury (which has repeatedly defied expectations) looks like it might take more time than just this season to heal? If so, Justin Morneau would be a hell of a replacement for him, and it’s not like his $14 million salary would be much of a problem for the phree-spending Phils. Other options include Ryan Doumit if Carlos Ruiz' ribcage strain becomes a problem. The Phillies setup men – primarily Chad Qualls and Antonio Bastardo - have both been unreliable. If Halladay can’t recover, history suggests that the Phils aren’t afraid to chase high-ceiling pitchers like Liriano. Finally, there is one Twins player that could be interesting even if the Phils decide to pack it in this year. Their center fielder Shane Victorino will be a free agent at the end of the year and the Phillies don’t know if they’ll be able to re-sign him. Denard Span might be of interest as he’s under contract through 2015. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins The most likely scenario is that the Phils do exactly what the Twins did last year: stand pat. It’s hard to give up on a year when expectations were so high and it’s easy to blame injuries. Plus, management can trot out the great cliché that they’re trading for three superstars just by getting healthy. Conclusion They’re worth watching, to be sure. The Phils have been very aggressive around the trade deadline in acquiring talent, and they haven’t been afraid to trade away significant prospects for the right pieces. But outside of Morneau as a Howard replacement, there doesn’t look like a great fit here. ~~~ Possible Trade Targets Domonic Brown - OF You may have heard this name a the trade deadline in 2011. Or 2010. Or 2009. And now he’s 24. The Phillies have had several opportunities to trust him with a corner outfield spot, and it seems likely they’re never going to have room for him, even though he’s only had 246 AB in the majors. He hasn’t actually done much in the minors in 2011 or 2012 and he’s had trouble staying health (including being out right now with some strained knee ligaments). But did I mention that he’s just 24, and that two years ago he was posting a combine 980 OPS in AA and AAA? Trevor May – RHP May is a possible front of the rotation starter, topping most Phillies prospect lists. But he isn’t an elite prospect because of his struggles with his control. You might expect those issues (4.6 BB/9) to be further exposed as he climbed up the ladder and sure enough, he’s posting a 4.94 ERA this year at AA, albeit with fewer walks. Short of a big deal, he likely isn’t available, but he’s one of several options – Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America both have multiple pitchers in their Top 5 rankings of Phils prospects. Freddy Galvis - SS Galvis made the Phils roster out of spring training, starting at second base, courtesy of Utley’s injury. His year went downhill from there in a hurry. First, he hit .226. Then he fractured his back. And then he was suspended 50 days for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. His main asset is a terrific glove. It isn’t clear he has enough offense to be a regular starter – his career OBP in the minors is .292 – and the steroid suspension further clouds that issue. But he’s just 22 years old and has been relatively young for most of his levels, so a case can be made that there is still plenty of untapped potential.