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  1. Tell that to the players that won't get paid as much and will have no control over where they sign
  2. The thing is, he's not going to be a starter in the minors this year anyway. He'll finish off the season coming out of the bullpen and they'll stretch him out over the off season. So the idea (which is basically what Kansas City was thinking last year with Finnegan) is, even if our long term plan is to stretch this guy out, but that won't start until the offseason, why not make use of him out of the bullpen if we think he's capable.
  3. If he follows it up with growth like May has shown this year, I don't care how much he struggles
  4. At first glance, you might think the idea of calling up Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to the major league club would be ridiculous. They are respectively the 1st and 2nd ranked prospects in a highly regarded Twins farm system, they are 21.5 and 22 years old, and a .279 and .254 batting average at AA doesn't scream "Ready for the Majors." But as is often the case, first impressions aren't all that telling. In fact, by the end of this piece, I think many of you will agree that both players are ready for a call to the majors. Rewind to April 23rd. The Chattanooga Lookouts had just lost to fall to a record of 6-7 with a roster that was believed to be one of the best in all the minors, a roster that included the aforementioned Buxton and Sano. But Byron had just been benched (for what would amount to two games) after starting the season hitting .180/.241/.300 with 14Ks/4BBs in 54 plate appearances. Miguel was in the lineup that day, but was struggling just as much, hitting .163/.333/.326 with 15Ks/10BBs in 54 PAs. The two were rusty, but then again, it was expected for two prospects who missed the bulk, if not all, of the 2014 season. The rust came off quite suddenly for Byron. He returned to the line up on the 25th and went 2 for 5 with a home run. Since his benching, Byron has hit .306/.373/.541 with 6 2B, 11 3B, and 5 HR. His K% dropped from 25.9% down to 19.3% and his BB% has gone from 7.4% to 9.5% (17.7% and 10.0% over that stretch respectively). He has stolen 18 bases and only been caught once. It took a little longer for Miguel, though. He struggled up through May 6th, hitting .163/.299/.388. The power was there (.225 ISO) and he was still drawing lots of walks (15.5% BB%), but the average was still lagging in large part due to a K% of 28.9%. Since then, Sano has hit .321/.397/.578 with 6 HR, 8 2B, and 1 3B while cutting his Ks down to 27 in 126 PAs (21.4% K%). Of course, small sample size is something with which to be concerned, but are these performances out of character for these two? Buxton was considered a fast track candidate before multiple injuries in 2014. Is it so odd to believe that he could still be viewed as such? The biggest surprise might be the home run power Buxton is exhibiting, but even if that doesn't translate, he will still be a weapon defensively and on the basepaths. As for Sano, let me offer you this. After hitting over .300 at A+, a mid-season promotion to AA saw continued power numbers, but a steep decline in average. Then, over his next 30+ games, he hit over .300 while maintaining his power before being called up to the majors. But you might be saying to yourself, "Miguel Sano hasn't been called to the majors yet....what is this writer thinking?" That's because I wasn't describing Miguel Sano; I was describing the path Joey Gallo took to the majors. I'll put their numbers side by side to illustrate my point: http://i.imgur.com/WCYUYwX.jpg I included a tab for Sano's last 29 games because I think including the start of the year when he's knocking off some rust is a little unfair. Look pretty similar though, don't they? Joey Gallo's 8 game debut thus far? 35 PAs, 3BBs, 15Ks, 2 HRs, .313/.371/.531. So you're the Twins front office, and the shine has begun to wear off the major league club. A team that was putting up runs in bunches earlier in the season has scored 25 runs in their last 10 games en route to a 3-7 record. Rumors have begun to spring up that they could be looking for a power bat, perhaps even one that plays the outfield. But what if those improvements came from within the organization? How could you fit both Buxton and Sano into the lineup on an everyday basis? If you agree that both prospects have exhibited enough to warrant promotions to the big club, the question becomes, how do they get everyday at bats? You aren't going to call these players up to be bench guys. To make room on the active roster, the first obvious move is to DFA Deunsing. He has struggled, and Tyler Jay has the potential to step in as a lefty specialist in the short term. The second move is a little less clear, but I think there are two options. Option 1: DFA Nunez. Option 2: Option Hicks or Rosario to AAA. DFAing Nunez seems to make more sense if we are prioritizing player potential, but optioning Hicks or Rosario opens up a spot in the outfield for Buxton every day. However, you could start a three-man rotation between Hicks/Hunter/Rosario between the two corner spots and plug Buxton into CF every day. It is more difficult to find everyday at bats for Sano. Even amidst a struggle, Trevor Plouffe is not going to be moving out of the lineup, and the same thing can be said for Mauer. With Vargas recently being called up, don't look for him to be sitting out too many games, either. That leaves Sano and Plouffe as options at third base, Plouffe, Mauer and Vargas as options at 1st base, and all 4 as options as DH. It could work, but it would most likely result in a few less at bats, all around. Put all of this together, and the conclusion is clear: If you believed Buxton was on a fast track in 2013, why wouldn't he still be considered on a fast track? As for Sano, a recent comparison to one Mr. Gallo leads me to believe he can be successful in his jump from AA to the majors. Whether the team can find the at bats seems to be the last looming question.
  5. For those wondering about Vargas: With Hu being called up to make the spot start for the Red Wings yesterday, they didn't have room on their active roster (24 player limit, guys on DL and rehabbers like Stauffer don't count against limit) to put Vargas on without making a corresponding move.So they waited until today when Hu was set to be sent back to A+ to activate him.I'm not sure if the timing of the situation would have allowed them to send Hu down after the first game and then activate Vargas for the second, or if they can only make roster moves at predetermined times in the day
  6. Think AAP is suffering from a Twins team that is actually winning? Less looking on the farm when you're excited to watch the parent club?
  7. Danny Santana: 2014 AAA: .268/.311/.381 Called up after 24 games Eddie Rosario 2014 AAA: .242/.280/.379 Called up after 23 games
  8. In the long run, that is a fall back. But if the belief is that he can turn into an everyday guy, then he needs to get at bats from the left side in order to do that
  9. Just some context on Hicks here guys: 2015 splits: vs. RHP: .154/.214/.308, 5Ks and 1 BB in 14 PAs vs. LHP: .500/.600/1.250 3Ks and 2 BBs in 10 PAs Now all the usual cautions of small sample sizes absolutely apply, but what we're seeing in the numbers is that he's still struggling as a lefty and hitting well from the right side. With just numbers, it is possible he's facing some bad luck, but 5 Ks in 14 PAs doesn't scream "tough luck". Does that mean he couldn't potentially help this squad right now? Absolutely not, but I have to go with John Bonnes on this one (for those of you who listen to Gleeman and the Geek, you probably already know where I'm going). I believe the organization still thinks there's everyday potential in Aaron Hicks, and he got sent down to become a better left handed hitter. He hasn't done that so far. Aaron Hicks, (and likely any combination of roster moves) isn't going to turn this team into a contender in 2015, so playing the long game with him is fine in my opinion. He would help the club, but as he is right now, he's not going to push the needle far.
  10. Two things: 1) You could make the argument that Chris Herrmann is a better back up catcher than Pinto. Offensively, Pinto will win out, but defensively..... 2) I've liked what I've seen of Graham thus far and wouldn't give him up. He's been used a lot more than you would want a Rule 5 draftee to be so far this year, but with his velocity up, he seems like a guy worth holding onto.
  11. Even if he profiles better as a second baseman, his path to the show will be through shortstop. Santana/Escobar have many more question marks than Dozier does, and the next solid short stop option is probably Nick Gordon. By the time Gordon comes up, Dozier will be on the back end of the contract, and potentially expendable or a depth option
  12. This shouldn't be an indictment on the rest of the articles, but this is the best piece of information I've come across in these articles in a while..... I was way off....
  13. There is basically no correlation between spring training offense and regular season offense.
  14. I do wonder, and if you say varying degrees of defenses behind it, I would be more dismissive of it. Not saying that it is the only reason, but the fact that he had consistent ERA underperformance and consistent bad defenses behind him, it's hard to discredit that
  15. Again.....nearly every one of those 1000 innings (with the exception of 80 or so with the Dodgers) were in front of very bad defenses, which can absolutely account for ERA lagging behind FIP.
  16. 10 days past, you may not even read this, but here goes anyway. "That his hr/walk/strikeout ratios versus his era means that one batter per game that you "really need to get out" he doesn't get out as often as all the other guys he pitches to." But WHY wasn't he getting them out? Last year definitely seemed to be an anomaly, evidenced even by his FIP being significantly higher than it had been. I really didn't buy the injury thing at first, until I started looking at his peripherals from the past and then after his September performance. I think something really was off. Now is he going to post a 3.20 ERA? No, particularly not in front of Arcia/Hicks/Hunter. But depending on what call ups happen when and how it all shakes out, there is no doubt in my mind that he can be a 3.70-3.90 ERA that gets a bunch of wins for a competitive team.
  17. Or did Morneau finally get over some concussion symptoms. There's some head injury stuff to take into consideration here as well.
  18. After the season Hughes had last year, I would be very concerned about Molitor's sanity if he wasn't starting the opening game.
  19. Even if he's not facing 3s and 4s, the presence of Santana could hopefully have some emotional/psychological impact as well. Take some pressure off. How much affect that will have though, if it even has any, is tough to say..
  20. It may not have come off how you wanted, but there is absolutely some truth to it. Metrics can only go so far into explaining outcomes, let alone predicting them. There are always going to be subtleties, intricacies and intangibles that just can't be quantified. People who use advanced statistics intelligently will always be open and honest with these 'flaws'. As an example: I'm not saying he has been a good pitcher over his career, just that his peripherals that have been shown to best correlate with success have been good. Maybe he has a tendency to alter his delivery every once in a while that makes it easy for a hitter to pick the ball up out of his hand. Maybe he gets frustrated, grips his pitches too tightly and it results in poor sequencing that inflates his ERA while his peripherals remain mostly untouched. There are all sorts of things that we just can't quantify that play a role in his performance. But as a fan (and a statistician by trade), looking at the situation from the outside, I work with what I have to try and give myself the best understanding and make the best predictions. And advanced statistics really do tell a very large part of the story of baseball.
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