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I'm trying to be optimistic about him. Honestly, when I look at all his peripherals, there really no reason is he shouldn't be a good pitcher. Early in his career, he was a bit of a flyball guy, but he seemed to have found a better GB/FB ratio until this season. His K% has been above average for a starter. His BB% below average. I just don't get it. Thanks for the input

An interesting aspect is that Plouffe saw this improvement in a year in which he was probably gettin gless help over at 1B than he had in the past. Mauer is definitely athletic and will be more than compentent, but I don't think he was probably as good as Morneau in his first full season over there.

Thanks to everyone for the compliments. As for this, that can be difficult to parse out. In 2008, when the Marlins had their best defensive season by the metrics, Nolasco had a BABIP of .273. Then again, Marlins starting pitchers had BABIP of .290, .292, .299, .307, .299, .295, .331, .295 from 2006-2013 respectively (starting with 2013, 2008 is bolded). There are some success stories with BABIP, and some failings. Between 2006 and 2013, 37 times a starting pitcher pitched more than 100 innings for the Marlins. 19 of them had BABIP above .300, and 18 of them had BABIP below. Guys like Anibal Sanchez, Nolasco, Dontrelle Willis had seasons where they were over, but no names like Scott Olson and Jacob Turner have had seasons significantly under .300 as well. Realistically, the answer is likely somewhere in the middle. That extra 2% of LDs Ricky puts up likely hurts him some, but he likely hasn't been helped by his defenses over his career either.

For Ricky Nolasco, January 1st has a much different tenor in 2015 than it did in 2014. A year ago, Ricky had recently signed the largest free agent contract in Twins history (though that's not saying much) with the expectation of being a veteran presence to help stabilize a rotation that was in shambles. After a disastrous 2014 campaign, the idea that he doesn't deserve a spot in the opening day rotation has been tossed around by more than a few fans.As time has passed, it's clear that Ricky Nolasco will be expected to be in the starting rotation, but what can be expected from him? When I have discussions about Nolasco, people are quick to point out his less than stellar career numbers. People point to his career (pre-2014) ERA of 4.37, and an ERA- of 108 (scaled to 100, lower is better). They mention that he has had as many seasons with an ERA over 5.00 as he had under 3.00 (two each). The idea is that Ricky Nolasco duped the Twins by having a strong year in a contract season, in the National League, no less, and that his 2014 results are a product of a less than stellar pitcher and moving to the tougher American League. But when you dig a little deeper, you see a bit of a different story. For example, Ricky had a pre-2014 FIP of 3.76, and a FIP- of 92 (scaled to 100, lower is better). For those unfamiliar with FIP and FIP-, I'd suggest reading this article on FIP, and this article on FIP-. Essentially, FIP attempts to look at what a pitcher's performance would be like with league average defense by looking at how the pitcher performed on the only outcomes he has the most control over: home runs, walks and strikeouts. So what does this say about Nolasco? Before 2014, Ricky Nolasco was very good when the ball wasn't put into play, less good when the ball was put into play. So is there something about Ricky's profile that makes him susceptible to under-performing his FIP? Is there something about the balls that were put into play that led his ERA to balloon? The first thing I looked at was his ball in play rates from 2006-2013 compared against qualified starters from that time span. This accounted for a list of 245 pitchers with about 790,000 batters faced and over 590,000 balls contacted (different from balls in play because balls contacted includes home runs). http://i.imgur.com/jqwmD4Z.jpg Unfortunately, this really didn't give any indication one way or the other. His ground ball rate (GB%) is slightly lower, and his fly ball rate (FB%) and line drive rate (LD%) are slightly higher, but his infield fly ball rate (IFFB%) is much higher than the total, though slightly lower than the average. GBs are significantly more likely to be outs and significantly less likely to be extra bases when compared to FBs and LDs, so being slightly on the wrong end of each of these does put him at some risk, but there aren't any drastic swings in either direction. It's also interesting to note that his GB% was 45.1%, 46.6% and 43.0% in 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively, though he still underperformed his FIP by 0.65, 1.13 and 0.36 respectively. This graph also shows just how Nolasco has been able to put up a good FIP over the years. He is league average when it comes to HR/FB (and also HR%, though that didn't make the graph) while having better than average K% and BB%. But when you look at the defensive rankings (FanGraphs desciprtion) of the teams he played for, you begin to see some possible explanations: http://i.imgur.com/BvkPJAU.jpg Nolasco annually played in front of a bottom-third defense that cost the team runs. The one hiccup in this train of thought is that during his time with the Dodgers, he still had a 3.18 FIP and a 3.56 ERA despite playing in front of a stout Dodger defense. Then again, 80+ innings isn't a huge sampling, so it could be noise. So what does all of this mean for Ricky Nolasco going forward? Unfortunately, the outlook is bleak. The Twins defense in 2014 ranked 27th in the league with a DEF of -46.5. The infield appears passable. But the only significant positional player who was brought in was Torii Hunter, who doesn't figure to be much of an improvement on the field. What he may bring in leadership and as a mentor is difficult to quantify and predict. Of course, there is help on it's way in the form of Byron Buxton, and Eddie Rosario appears to have the athleticism to be an average to above-average corner outfielder. But with a likely outfield composed of Arcia and Hunter flanking Hicks/Schafer/Santana, even should Nolasco's FIP return to his career numbers, there's little hope in bucking the trend of his ERA trailing behind his FIP. Click here to view the article

January 1st has a much different tenor in 2015 than it did in 2014 for Ricky Nolasco. A year ago, Ricky had recently signed the largest free agent contract in Twins history (though that's not saying much) with the expectation of being a veteran presence to help stabilize a rotation that was in shambles. After a disastrous 2014 campaign, suddenly the idea that he doesn't deserve a spot in the opening day rotation has been tossed around by more than a few fans. As time has passed, it's clear that Ricky Nolasco will be expected in the starting rotation, but what can be expected from him? When I have discussions about Ricky Nolasco, people are quick to point out his less than stellar career numbers. People point to his career (pre-2014) ERA of 4.37, and an ERA- of 108 (scaled to 100, lower is better). They mention that he has had as many seasons over a 5.00 ERA as he had under 3.00 (2 apiece). The idea is that Ricky Nolasco duped the Twins by having a strong year in a contract season, in the National League no less, and that his 2014 results are a product of a less than stellar pitcher and moving to the more vaunted American League. But when you dig a little deeper, you see a bit of a different story. For example, Ricky had a pre-2014 FIP of 3.76, and a FIP- of 92 (scaled to 100, lower is better). For those unfamiliar with FIP and FIP-, I'd suggest reading this article on FIP, and this article on FIP-. Essentially, FIP attempts to look at what a pitcher's performance would be like with league average defense by looking at how the pitcher performed on the only outcomes they have the most control over; home runs, walks and strike outs. So what does this say about Nolasco? Before 2014, Ricky Nolasco was better than average when the ball wasn't put into play. So is there something about Ricky's profile that makes him susceptible to under performing his FIP? Is there something about the balls that were put into play that led his ERA to balloon? First thing I looked at was his Ball in Play rates from 06-13 compared against qualified starters from that time span. This accounted for a list of 245 pitchers with over 790,000 batters faced and over 590,000 balls contacted (different from balls in play because balls contacted includes homeruns). http://i.imgur.com/jqwmD4Z.jpg Unfortunately, this really didn't give any indication one way or the other. His ground ball rate (GB%) is slightly lower and his flyball rate (FB%) and line drive rate (LD%) are slightly higher, but his infield fly ball rate (IFFB%) is much higher than the total, though slightly lower than the average. GBs are significantly more likely to be outs and significantly less likely to be extra bases when compared to FBs and LDs, so being slightly on the wrong end of each of these does put him at some risk, but there aren't any drastic swings in either direction. It's also interesting to note that his GB% was 45.1%, 46.6% and 43.0% in 2011, 12 and 13 respectively, though he still underperformed his FIP by 0.65, 1.13 and 0.36 respectively. This graph also shows just how Nolasco has been able to put up a good FIP over the years. He is league average when it somes to HR/FB (and also HR%, though that didn't make the graph) while having better than average K% and BB%. But when you look at the defensive rankings (Fangraphs descprtion) of the teams he played for, you begin to see some possible explanations: http://i.imgur.com/BvkPJAU.jpg Nolasco annually played in front of a bottom third defense that cost the team runs. The one hiccup in this train of thought is that during his time with the Dodgers, he still had a 3.18 FIP and a 3.56 ERA despite playing in front of a stout Dodger defense. Then again, 80+ innings isn't a huge sampling, so it could be noise. So what does all of this mean for Ricky Nolasco going forward? Unfortunately, the outlook is bleak. The Twins defense in 2014 ranked 27th in the league with a DEF of -46.5. The infield appears passable. But the only significant position player that was brought in was Torii Hunter, who doesn't figure to be much of an improvement on the field. What he may bring in leadership and as a mentor is difficult to quantify and predict. Of course, there is help on it's way in the form of Byron Buxton in center, and Rosario appears to have the athleticism to be an average to above average corner outfielder. But with a likely outfield composed of Arcia and Hunter flanking Hicks/Schafer/Santana in 2015, even should his FIP return to his career numbers, there's little hope in bucking the trend of his ERA trailing behind his FIP.

If you don't want to discuss politics when you're watching baseball, be upset with Hunter for using his baseball profile to enter himself into the political forum. Berardino asked a question about a topic (and even kept it related to baseball) that is important to many people, many of whom are sports fans. Hunter is welcome to his opinions and his beliefs, but once he throws his hat into the political discussion on the subject, he opens himself to scrutiny and debate.

Can someone please explain to me what Terry Ryan is thinking? For three years we've been rebuilding. Guys like Correia, Marquis and Pelfrey were brought in as payroll was slashed. And now, in the past 3 hours, two pieces of news have convinced me that they have absolutely no clue what they're doing. First, we signed Torii Hunter to a 10.5 million dollar one year contract. No, I didn't meant to write 1.5 million, or 0.5 million. It is a 10.5 million dollar contract. To improve one of the worst defensive outfields in the league , they signed a 39 year old right fielder that was the worst qualified defensive right fielder in the league . Or maybe they did it because they wanted someone to be a mentor. Ignoring how poorly that worked with the Jasons Bartlett and Kubel, they are bringing in a player with a troubling past to say the least. I can find no same baseball reason to sign Hunter, let alone to make him the third highest paid player on your team. Let that sink into your mind. 39 year old Torii Hunter is receiving the third highest salary among current players. The second decision, was to tender contacts to all 6 arbitration eligible players. Trevor Plouffe and Fien were no doubters in my mind, though Milone and Schafer seemed logical to be offered a contract given the lack of talent say their respective positions. But Nunez and Deunsing make no sense. What does Eduardo Nunez offer that Escobar doesn't as a utility guy (or Doug Bernier/James Beresford if they keep Santana in the outfield and Escobar at sorry)? Does it make any sense to pay a sub par lefty only reliever 2.5 million dollars while you leave players like Levi Michael, Adrian Salcedo, Jason Adam (a player you just traded for) unprotected? All he offers is innings pitched that could go to Caleb Thielbar, Aaron Thompson or Logan Darnell (or even Tommy Milone if he doesn't stick in the rotation) to see if they could provide at least the same mediocre results at 1/5th the cost. Instead, when you add in the addition of Hunter, Twins payroll will likely be sitting around 92 million. I wanted to believe, for once, that with multiple top tier pitching free agents and several second tier guys, that Terry Ryan would actually go out and make an aggressive attempt in free agency to bring in a high end free agent. Instead, we get to continue the Reunion Parade with, probably add a pitcher on looking to bounce back from injury (Likely on a similar one year deal near 10 million) while we hope that our pitching staff ascends to mediocrity from the scrap heap it's been over the last four years while we hope that our offense, which has several regression candidates (Hunter's continued slide into retirement included), can maintain itself. Not exactly a winning plan in my estimation. Can Terry Ryan's job security afford the hit of one more failing season? Because the path he seems to be leading us down may very well answer that question.

Guys....the Zimmerman for Dozier et al. deal was under the assumption that you can extend Zimmerman. No one beileves you make the deal if you don't have an extension in place

The Kia Tigers haven't decided whether they're going to accept the winning bid, and teams are not notified they won until the KBO team decides to accept the offer.

Newest report on MLBTradeRumors has Rangers winning the posting

As a fan who's defended the Twins adamantly over the last four years, this start to free agency couldn't have been any more disheartening. I'm very aware that the gears of major league rebuilds turn slowly, particularly when you look at where the Twins organization was after the 2011 season. I staunchly defended signings like Marquis, Correia, and Pelfrey for two reasons. One, the starting pitching markets in those seasons weren't particularly deep, and two (more importantly), it didn't make sense to invest significant money in contracts that would mostly cover rebuilding years. I stood by the decision to move both Span and Revere in one off season because, even if it hasn't panned out as we had hoped, outfield was considered a position of depth at the time and the organization needed legitimate pitching prospects. I was fine with letting Aaron Hicks get two cracks to be the guy in center field because the team wasn't going anywhere. I have stood by Terry Ryan over and over and over again because I've watched the growth of our farm system turn into one of the best in the league. But to hear the rumors that are coming out in these initial weeks makes me seriously question the acumen of this front office. Justin Masterson is a fine pitching target. He's got a lot of upside and is a great bounce back candidate. Not the flashiest target, but a decent potential move as long as he's not your headliner. But that may very well be the case. Then we start to hear rumors that the Twins (backed by Molitor) are heavily pursuing Torii Hunter as yet another return candidate. After wasting roster spots on the Jasons Bartlett and Kubel last year just to watch them not make it more than 4 months cumulatively, now we are aggressively pursuing a 39 year old outfield who's defense has declined to the point where his metrics rank lower than Oswaldo Arcia. And why are we doing this? Because we want Torii to be a leader. That's right, we want Teflon Torii to be the leader and mentor for our talented young outfielders. And the cherry on top of it all, was waking up this morning to a report on MLBTradeRumors claiming the Twins were interested in soon to be 33 year old Wily Mo Pena. Pena's spent the last three years playing in the Japan, and has showed some of the prodigous power (evidenced HERE) that made him an interesting prospect in his youth, but weighing in at 260, he profiles mostly as a 1B (Occupied by Mauer), DH (Occupied by Vargas), or corner outfield. Is Willy Mo Pena the answer to this team's defensive ineptitude in the OF? Does Terry Ryan actually believe that the Twins outfield defense isn't that bad because they "catch what they get to"? Does Willy Mo fit into this same description? I understand the need to be patient with a farm system, not wanting to block players, and maintaining payroll flexibility so that you can sign young talent to lucrative extensions. But no farm system does it alone, and by their own admission, the organization isn't using their allotted budget. At what point does this team make a significant investment in order to supplement and ease the transition of the young talent? At what point do we start valuing defense? At what point do they stop leaving money on the table? It's early in the off-season (as evidenced by the fact that as I wrote this article, news broke that the Twins won the bid on Hyeong Jong Yang), and this may all be moot in a couple weeks anyway. But the early indications as to who the organization is targeting, particularly when it comes to positional players, are unsettling to say the least

And it's not like Fenway is a pitcher's haven either.

Perhaps because, from reports, it appears Pohlad was pushing for Molitor

This is incredible. Thanks Parker. As for having plans that night, I think that joke went over my head

This may be a long shot, but is there anyway a text transcript of this could be made available? I'd love to link quotes, and a text version would be great

Add in that he's improved the last two seasons, and in the minors, has shown the ability to hit for average, so there's reason to believe he still has room to grow

There's a lot of concern about how committed the Pohlad's are to providing a good on-field product. Like you said, every team puts profits as the top priority. I also think that every owner will go out and spend and even take a loss on a single year or two if they can build their brand strength (going deep in the playoffs or even winning a WS) because it will result in a stronger fan base and more profits down the road. I think this is probably the case with the Pohlad's too, but the last time we were in a position to really compete, they were also pushing for a new stadium, and perhaps didn't make the extra moves needed as a way of making the statement "this is why we need a new stadium." Or maybe it was just about not letting the payroll keep going up. If I recall correctly, in 06 and 07 their payroll was pretty high compared to the 50-52% benchmark that they typically set. That all being said, the next 3-5 years are going to be very telling about whether Terry Ryan is/was constrained by a penny pinching owner, or if it was Ryan's conservative nature that kept things contained

Something that people need to realize about Mauer.....his 162 game average over his career for home runs is 14 home runs per 162 games. If you take out his 28 home run season, he drops to 11 per 162. Anyone who's asking Mauer to hit for 20+ home runs a season in Target Field, that's a long wait for a train don't come. But 12-16 is not an unrealistic number, and if that's mixed in with 35-40 doubles (career 39 doubles per 162 games), that is more than enough power from even a number 3 batter if he's hitting .300. I don' think any of these numbers are a stretch

There's a very real argument to be made that Terry Ryan has had very little opportunity to ever be a spender. The Metrodome financial situation made big spending just not a reality. And when he took over after 2011, this organization was already in a bad place, and in need of a rebuild. I would have liked to see more spending through the 2012 and 2013, but I think there are some difficulties in attracting quality free agents that earn big money when they're coming to a team that's rebuilding.

Hardy, mostly. Garza and Bartlett found success elsewhere, Ortiz was a guy we traded for then blossomed elsewhere, Worley is finding success in Pittsburgh, as is Liriano. This is a smattering across the years and the most recent ones aren't blockbusters, but if they pitched as they are now for us, they would be significant improvements. The Gomez > Hardy > Hoey/Jacobson fiasco is really the heart of that comment though

So a general response that keeps coming up is that "Don't spend just for the sake of spending." I get that, but it's not at all what I'm advocating. The way the organization's contracts are set up, they have a ton of flexibility right now. I think it's going to be tough to get a Scherzer or Lester here, but the team has the financial flexibility not only now, but 3-4 years down the road as well, to do so. Although it's not the direction I would go, maybe it's aggressively pursuing Yasmani Tomas. The point is, the organization has come out saying that they have left money on the table in the past. If they continue to do that, it only furthers the fans view that they aren't interested in putting a winning product on the field; a sentiment I don't agree with, but one that will hurt their ticket sales, which in turn hurts revenues, which hurts your ability to put up a competitive payroll and to attract quality free agents. Just because you pay Max Scherzer 150-200 million, doesn't mean he may not turn out to be an efficient use of money. If he anchors the top of your rotation for 3-5 years and then transitions to a solid 2-3 guy toward the end, he can still be a very good investment

Fair enough. I flew off the handle a bit there. Son got immunizations today and it's been rough, and I definitely took it the wrong way. My bad

Birdwatcher: Wow....that is extremely condescending. For you to sit here and label me a casual fan when you know absolutely nothing about me is just hilarious. I've been a firm backer of the rebuild this team has undergone. I've watched the organization moves knowing that they just weren't in a position to compete, and backed most of their decisions. I've staunchly defended it over and over and over again because I do follow the minors very closely, and have been able to see the what they're building, and I'm very excited about it. But I also look at the situation the organization is in beyond the minor leagues. They have been WAY under budget in payroll, and that's particularly important to note when this year Dave St. Peter was on record saying they attempted to add even more to the payroll to meet the budget that they themselves have set. I'm not advising the organization to make an all-in move to win now or go home. I'm not saying sell the prospects because I need to see this team win now. I'm advising the organization to use it's resources, like it has admitted to failing to do so, and make a move to supplement everything else they're doing. Not taking advantage of the large amount of unallocated payroll just because their farm system has been performing well is cutting off your nose to spite your face, and it's exactly the type of "self satisfaction" that Jim Pohlad believes haunted the organization in the late 00s and led to the down turn in the early 10s. But instead, you take the opportunity to gaze down pretentiously on the people you think who just don't get it like you do, rather than reading the actual letter. You take the words written and fit it to your own little "Other fans are just too stupid to realize the truths that I see" narrative to make yourself feel smarter than everybody else.

Gil4, this got too long to quote your message, but this is in response to you. First off, let me start off by saying Buxton is basically off the table. If the right package for Sano came up....it would have to be quite a package though. I'm not advocating spending for the sake of spending, I just think the organization is in an advantageous position to go out and seriously pursue a top end starter. Who's looking to get huge arbitration raises or extension in the next 3-5 years. Buxton and Sano won't be up until AT LEAST half way through 2015, which means they'll likely miss super 2 cut offs, meaning they're arbitration eligible after 2018. Plouffe if he keeps progressing, but with Sano looking at 3rd base, he may become expendable anyway. Dozier, possibly. HR numbers always play well in arbitration, but he's still one year from even starting arbitration. Santana won't qualify until after 2016 and Vargas not until after 2017. Eduardo Escobar hit super 2 this year, and Arcia will likely hit super 2 after next year. As for whether we're there right now, see my above post that mentioned the Dave Cameron Podcast. There is not as far away as it used to be But none of these guys stand to make monster numbers in arbitration unless they make big steps forward (Santana is interesting, because the general thought is that he way outperformed himself this year, so we'll see where he settles). But if 2-3 of these guys see the progress that would facilitate big arbitration numbers, then this team's offense is going to be world series caliber and a big investment in a starting pitcher would probably pay off in the form of playoff appearances. And on top of that, most of these guys do have highly touted prospects behind them which could open up avenues for trading MLB talent to restock the farm and keep payroll reasonable while you reload internally and not see much of a dip in performance. And don't forget, that as Buxton and Sano come into arbitration after 2018, Mauer's 23 million comes off the books. So to answer the question of who I would go after, I would absolutely be offering Scherzer/Lester 200 million, and possibly even 100million over 5 years to Shields. This team has a lot of young and affordable talent already up here, and the means of reloading down the road if they get too expensive. I don't think they have to look to move prospects in a Shields-esque trade, because we have the payroll flexibility coupled with a nice free agent pool that they should be able to find a fit without parting with a prospect. As for whether we're "there" yet, take a look at my comment above about the DAve Cameron post. "There" is not as far away as it used to be