Secondary User

I think Minnesota has a more veteran core (Plouffe, Mauer, Hughes) with enough young talent (Arcia, Santana, Vargas, Escobar, Gibson, Dozier) already here, and some poised to come through in 2015(Meyer, May, possibly Rosario after a hot fall in Arizona) with the Pièce de résistance being Buxton and Sano full time in 2016 likely. The beautiful thing about the Twins situation, is that they have waves of guys that will be moving through. Dave Cameron had was on a podcast on Fangraphs, talking about how the second wild card makes mediocrity more beneficial. With that extra team getting in each year, and basically being a coin flip from the actual playoffs, it means that you don't have to plan your team to be around 93-95 wins to ensure a playoff spot. 88-92 is very reasonable playoff contention now, and it starts to eliminate the need for that "timing" of bringing all the prospects up at once.

Dear Mr. Ryan Let's start out on some common ground. The last four years have been very disappointing. We've heard these numbers in one form or another for years now, so I won't drag it out, but I want to highlight just a couple of the most disappointing statistics: In four seasons 383 losses.. A pitching staff whose ERA ranked 29th, 28th, 29th and 29th out of 30 from 2011-2014. A starting rotation that ranked last in the league in ERA from 2011-2014. And all of this coming as we moved into the publicly-funded Target Field. It has not been fun.Sadly, these last four years did not come out of nowhere. They have been years in the making. The farm system stopped producing in the late '00s and early '10s. Payroll has been cut, despite revenues that the organization has never before seen (more on this later). Significant trades have failed to yield productive players or prospects, and those who have found success, have done so only after leaving the organization. The clubhouse seemed to get stale as losing year after year took its toll on the players, yet the same voices remained in charge. Many see the firing of Ron Gardenhire as a token gesture meant to save your own job and to try to placate the masses, but I do not. I think your loyalty and your camaraderie with Gardy made it very difficult and very painful for you to do. That loyalty is to be commended, but know that loyalty cuts both ways. Holding on to the status quo for the sake of allegiance and friendship breeds stagnation and can inhibit progress. It is with this sentiment in mind that many, myself included, hope that you are truly considering managers from outside the organization. I have no doubt that there may be very good major league managers already employed within the organization. People who, though currently working with the Twins organization, have experience with many other clubs. But know that many will be skeptical of a promotion from within, no matter how deserving it may be. I do not envy the balancing act that will be required as you move forward. It's this skepticism that is dangerous. You recently discussed how you sense a lot of anger from the fan base. This may have been true, but I think it may be more dire than you believe. There is no doubt there is a die-hard fan base that is not pleased with the direction the organization has taken since moving into Target Field. But these fans are likely not going anywhere and will remain vocal and committed to the Twins no matter how long the team continues to struggle. They are not the concern. The more troubling aspect, however, is that the casual fan base is losing interest in the organization. The combination of a steep decline in the on-field product along with moving into Target Field has left many casual fans cynical of the organization's commitment to producing a competitive on-field product. Is this completely fair? I don't believe so. As was said earlier, these four years are a product of many decisions and many years. I believe it's more unfortunate than anything else that it came about as we moved into Target Field. Whether it's fair or not though, the perception is just as damaging, because worse than anger is disinterest. The disinterest of the casual fan, not the anger of the diehard fan, will be what continues to drive attendance down. So the question is, what's to be done. How can you stem the growing tide of malaise and get people excited to come back out to Target Field. The simple answer is, make a splash. With the All-Star game come and gone, the only thing left to draw interest is the product on the field. Fortunately, you have some things working in your favor. Thanks to Target Field, the organization has the revenues and the payroll flexibility to go out and be aggressive this offseason. On top of this, the free agent market for starting pitching is fairly saturated, with several impact players at the top of the list. These two factors make this an ideal time to step out on that ledge and make the splashy move that has been the antithesis of the Twins modus operandi for so long. Do not let past errors, the fear of failure or the idea that our prospects aren't ready, dissuade you from making a bold move. Nearly 2 years ago, the Royals, with a team that was young and unaccomplished, went out, took a risk and added James Shields. It was a move that was widely criticized. "This team isn't ready to compete," was the rallying cry of the masses. But here they are, competing in the World Series. And here we stand: A young developing core of talent with a smattering of veterans, reinforcements working their way up, resources to use, and players available who fit our needs. I've watched this organization from the Gulf Coast League to the Majors very closely during your tenure, Mr. Ryan, and I believe there's a method to the madness. But at this crucial juncture, with public support waning, when you sit down with Dave St. Peter, I believe that you can come to one, and only one conclusion. Spend Baby, Spend. Signed A Loyal Twins Fan Click here to view the article

At the start of this season, you were adamant that the organization had significant offers on the table that were rejected by free agents, and that greatly affected the clubs inability to make full use of its payroll budget. What lessons did you learn from that experience, and how will you go about ensuring that the organization isn't leaving money on the table this off season?

Dear Mr. Ryan Let's start out on some common ground. The last four years have been very disappointing. We've heard these numbers in one form or another for years now, so I won't drag it out, but I want to highlight just a couple of the most disappointing statistics. 383 losses in 4 seasons. A pitching staff who's ERA ranked 29th, 28th, 29th and 29th out of 30 from 2011-2014. A starting rotation that ranked last in the league in ERA from 2011-2014. And all of this coming as we moved into the publicly funded Target Field. It hasn't been fun. Sadly, these last four years did not come out of nowhere. They have been years in the making. The farm system stopped producing in the late 00s and early 10s. Payroll has been cut, despite revenues that the organization has never before seen (more on this later). Significant trades have failed to yield productive players or prospects, and those who have found success, have done so after leaving the organization. The clubhouse seemed to get stale as losing year after year took its toll on the players, yet the same voices remained in charge. Many see the firing of Ron Gardenhire as token gesture meant to save your own job and to try and placate the masses, but I do not. I think your loyalty and your camaraderie with Gardy made it very difficult and very painful for you to do. That loyalty is to be commended, but know that loyalty cuts both ways. Holding onto the status quo for the sake of allegiance and friendship breeds stagnation and can inhibit progress. It is with this sentiment in mind that many, myself included, hope that you are truly considering managers from outside the organization. I have no doubt that their may be very good major league managers already employed within the organization. People who, though currently working with the Twins organization, have experience with many other clubs. But know that many will be skeptical of a promotion from within, no matter how deserving it may be. I do not envy the balancing act that will be required as you move forward. It's this skepticism that is dangerous. You recently discussed how you sense a lot of anger from the fan base. This may have been true, but I think it may be more dire than you give it credit. There is no doubt there is a die hard fan base that is not pleased with the direction the organization has taken since moving into Target Field. But these fans are likely not going anywhere, and will remain vocal and committed to the Twins no matter how long the team continues to struggle. They are not the concern. The more troubling aspect, however, is that the casual fan base is losing interest in the organization. The combination of a steep decline in the on-field product along with moving into Target Field has left many casual fans cynical of the organizations commitment to producing a competitive on field product. Is this completely fair? I don't believe so. As was said earlier, these four years are a product of many decisions and many years. I believe it's more unfortunate than anything else that it came about as we moved into Target Field. Whether it's fair or not though, the perception is just as damaging, because worse than anger is disinterest. The disinterest of the casual fan, not the anger of the diehard fan, will be what continues to drive attendance down. So the question is, what's to be done. How can you ebb the growing tide of malaise and get people excited to come back out to Target Field. The simple answer, is make a splash. With the All-Star game come and gone, the only thing left to draw interest is the product on the field. Fortunately, you have some things working in your favor. Thanks to Target Field, the organization has the revenues and the payroll flexibility to go out and be aggressive this off season. On top of this, the free agent market for starting pitching is fairly saturated, with several impact players at the top of the list. These two factors make this an ideal time to step out on that ledge and make the splashy move that has been the antithesis of the Twins organization for so long. Do not let past errors, the fear of failure or the idea that our prospects aren't ready dissuade you from making a bold move. Nearly 2 years ago, the Royals, with a team that was young and unaccomplished went out and took a risk and added James Shields. It was a move that was widely criticized. "This team isn't ready to compete," was the rallying cry of of the masses. But here they are, competing in the World Series. And here we stand. A young developing core of talent with a smattering veterans and reinforcements working their way up. Resources to use, and a players available who fit our needs. I've watched this organization, from the Gulf Coast League to the Majors, very closely under your tenure, Mr. Ryan, and I believe there's a method to the madness. But at this crucial juncture, with public support waning, when you sit down with Dave St. Peter, I believe that you can come to one, and only one conclusion. Spend Baby, Spend. Signed A Loyal Twins Fan

Let's be honest here, comparing Hicks, Gibson, Wimmers and Hendricks to Moustakas, Hosmer, et al is not exactly fair. They were completely different caliber of prospects. I definitely believe guys like Santana, Vargas, Polanco could play a more significant role for the Twins like Perez, Herrera, Escobar and Ventura did for the Royals

The Twins ranked 7th in the league in number of games scoring 2 or more runs, 7th in games scoring 3 or more runs, 3rd in games scoring 4 or more runs, and 14th scoring 5 or more runs, 10th in 6 or more, 12th in 7 or more, 8th in 8 or more, 7th in 9 or more, and 5th in 10 or more. They ranked no lower than 14th, and were consistantly 5-8 (which is where they ended up the season). I don't think there's any real significant variation, and the offense performed fairly consistently.

I'm not sure how a seven game series is inherently more chaotic than the one game series used by the Because of the amount of observed variance in the game over the years. Football games more often than not are won by the more talented team, while baseball games have a much lower percentage. Part of the issue is determining the most talented team, and there are a lot of studies on almost every sport about the subject of the efficacy of each sport's playoff, and I believe that the fivethirtyeight article links some. And I believe somewhere in this post someone made a comment similar to what I'm about to make (though it may have also been on another site). If your sport is using a playoff, then it isn't really determining who the best team is, but rather who performed best in the playoffs. The fact that strategy changes significantly in the playoffs (starters going on short rest for example) is indicative that a team that is the best through the regular season doesn't have the best set up to win the playoffs is indicative that they are two completely different systems, and thus, the results have to be interpreted. Statistically, if you want to truly determine who the best team is, you have balanced schedules, and you have as many contests as possible (realistically) to let luck and variance balance themselves out. If you're using a playoff system, It becomes more about entertainment, drama, ratings and profits than it does about a true competition to determine who the best team is. That is fine, but something that has to be considered.

Good lord, I've seen this misquoted and misinterpreted so many times, I can't believe it. Dave St. Peter did not say payroll wouldn't decline, he said their budget would decline. Mix in the fact that the Twins payroll peaked at 94 million this year after they added Morales, and that they had significant offers out to several free agents (Here's the story), and the Twins budget for payroll probably was sitting somewhere between 94-105 million heading into this year. Assume that by "significant offers", that the Twins only offered 75% of what the player got (if we don't know what they offered). The Twins offered Garza 14 million per year (Source), they offered Ervin Santana 10 million per year (Source), Pierzynski got 8 million from Boston, so we'll call it 6 from the Twins, and Rajai Davis got 5 from the Tigers, so we'll call it 4. That's a total of 34 million in offers. Now perhaps Santana was only pursused because Garza turned us down, so we'll knock Garza off, and we'll also subtract Suzuki's 3 million (since I rounded Rajai up by .25mil, I'm doing the same with Suzuki), so we'll take 3 million off Pierzynski's offer. That is an additional 17 million in payroll from 84 million in offers that were declined. Again, maybe they would have pulled back some offers if some of these guys would have signed, but characterizing their budget at 85 million is just downright dishonest and poor reporting

Am I remembering correctly that Molitor was seriously considered as the front runner to replace Kelly, but concerns of contraction made him hesitant to take the position?

http://i.imgur.com/7DNhJ0y.jpg Though he didn't exactly cruise through the first four innings, Nolsasco had put up zeros through 4 innings before getting tagged for 5 and not escaping the 5th. Control was down, swinging strikes hovered right around 9% again, but .588 average on balls in play is never a good sign.

http://i.imgur.com/u6zu9aq.jpg After his best start in the majors earlier this week, May struggled this trip through the rotation. He gave up 8 hits, 2 walks and 7ER through 4.2. As the numbers show, he struggled with his command just scratching over 60% strikes thrown. Swinging strike rates were nothing to write home about, but not bad, particularly on his change up. This is where it gets interesting. Over Trevor May's first 6 starts, his 4 seam fastball velocity averaged 91.7mph, which seemed lower than what I had expected from him. He was occassionally hitting 94, but most of his pitches were sitting between 92 and 90. Then come's his start on the 14th. His 4 seam average 93 mph that day, and he was regularly hitting 95, with the bulk of his pitches sitting at 94 and 93. Why is this important? Because in his first 6 outings, May's 4 seam command was not good, sitting at 66% strikes thrown. Against Chicago you might ask? 84% of his 4 seam fastballs were thrown for strikes. Now it's true that Chicago is a free swinging team, so that undoubtedly helped, but in that start, he had a better called strike rate than any other game he's started (33%). Jump ahead to May's next start back this weekend back at Target Field, and his velocity dipped to 91.5 mph on the four seam, and his control of it was back down to 71%. It's not that far of a stretch to believe that May is feeling the pressure of trying to make his mark in the bigs. He's commented several times on the support he's had from fans through Twitter and their excitement and anticipation for his major league arrival. Knowing the Twins organization is desperate for positives and with so many people looking to him to be one of the catalysts for this rotation, it's not hard to see a scenario where he's just gripping the ball too hard and it's affecting his velocity and control. This is all very much conjecture, but any introduction to pitching is going to teach you that over-gripping most pitches is going to result in a loss of velocity and control. One quick administrative note. My pattern of not writing up on pitchers I don't think aren't a long term part of the rotation (Darnell, Pino, etc.) will continue with Sunday's starter Anthony Swarzak. There will be no write up on Sunday's game.

http://i.imgur.com/u6zu9aq.jpg A couple days late, as I was traveling, but here are the numbers on Hughes' start this Friday against the Indians. Cleveland was not fooled, swinging and missing only twice, and putting up 10 hits against Hughes through 7 innings. He didn't walk anyone, so a 1.429 WHIP on a night where Hughes didn't have his best stuff isn't horrible. He kept his team in the game and the Twins were able to get him off the hook and eventually get a win. The command is one thing that just continues to amaze. He was over 75% on strikes in tonight's game, and 23 of the strikes were called strikes (2 swinging, 17 foul/tip, 26 in play).

I will be traveling this weekend, and it's unlikely I'll be able to post a breakdown until at least Saturday night. I will make sure to get caught up ASAP. Sorry about the inconvenience

http://i.imgur.com/ClHrTds.jpg Rough start to the game, followed by a few solid innings and a huge gift from Torii Hunter by not running home on a ground ball with the infield back, leading to a double play to get Gibson out of a jam. Wasn't sharp tonight though, as he only threw 61% of his pitches for strikes. He was particularly bad with his slider command. You could tell that early on, Detroit just wasn't offering at it. He threw the slider 11 times in his 26 pitch first inning. 7 times, it was a ball, twice it was fouled off, once it was swung through and once it was put into play for an out. He did have some better success with it after the first inningh, though. The lack of control manifested itself in the form of 7 hits and 3BB over 6 innings. Detroit is a potent offense, particularly 2-5, but since August 8th, Gibson has put up a 4.5 BB/9 rate. While he is a ground ball pitcher and will erase some runners with double plays, his low strikeout numbers don't leave him much wiggle room. He is still only a couple years removed from Tommy John surgery, and this is the most innings he's pitched in a season, so perhaps it's just some fatigue as we head down the stretch, but it's something to monitor going forward

http://i.imgur.com/QkdrT0E.jpg My write up is going to be very brief. Spent all night in the ER with a child and just don't have the drive to write a lot about this. It was a great outing. 5H and 1BB against a very potent Detroit line up. Again, hovered right around 65% strikes. Swinging strikes were at an expected 9.2% (Detroit's season average is 9.3%). Very little hard contact was made. Had hitters off balance. I particularly love the Curveball/Slider mix.

http://i.imgur.com/wNmXavJ.jpg If you just looked at the ball and strike totals on this graph, you'd probably think that I had accidentally posted a graph for Phil Hughes in the wrong article. But low and behold, with reports of Phil imparting some words of wisdom to the young hurler, Trevor May came out and put together probably his best outing of his short major league career. With the exception of a four hitter stretch in the 4th, May was very impressive. He gave up 5 hits, walked zero, and struck out 10 in 6 innings of work. 4 of those hits came consecutively in the aforementioned 4th inning, with the 5th being a solo home run surrendered to Adrian Nieto. May threw an astonishing 75% of his pitches for strikes today. This included 18 called strikes. He nearly threw as many called strikes as he did balls (22). On top of that, he continued to get great swinging strike rates. With runners on 1st and 2nd, nobody out and 2 runs already in, this looked like it was going to unravel on the second pass through the line up, but Anderson came out, and whatever he told May lit a fire. He challenged Avisail Garcia with four straight 4 seam fastballs, and struck him out without him moving his bat. Then went 2Seam, Change up and finished up with a 4 seam to get Wilkins swinging. To finish the inning, he played Dayan Viciedo like a fiddle, going slider, four seam and then a slow curve, getting swings and misses on all three. It was a very key moment for a young man who had struggled working out of the stretch.

http://i.imgur.com/Bj0y0pZ.jpg Another quality start, but who knows who things may have changed had Mauer not booted the ball early in the game which lead to the two run home run. Hughes' control was working as usual, though he did walk his first batter in 140 innings in the second. Many were surprised that it occurred against a team like the White Sox who walk so rarely (24th of 30 with a 6.9% BB%), but I figure it's a matter of Phil knowing the White Sox are aggressive, so he has to work the edges a bit more. That aside, with 11 strike outs, and a stellar 17% Swinging strike rate, he really did deal today despite the 5 runs given up. It's not often a starter will give up 5 runs (2 were inherited runners with nobody out in the 8th) in a 5-1 loss and it gets called a tough luck loss, but this really does seem fitting here. A quick note as well. I didn't do Logan Darnell's last start, because I just don't view him as a long term starter. I, again, am not doing his start this go around either. If there's enough demand for a breakdown of his outings, I can always go back and do one, but for the time being, it's just not worth the time.

http://i.imgur.com/jZp6Vma.jpg This is the type of appearance Twins fans hoped they were getting when he joined the club this year. An innings eater who can go deep into a game and keep you competitive. With 117 pitches, he reached a career high and the most he's thrown in a game since 2012. At 61.5% strike rate, it'd be incorrect to say he pounded the strike zone, but that really isn't his profile. However, he didn't walk any body, and the only big mistake he made was a splitter to Carlos Santana that got deposited into the seats. A sub 1 WHIP, 5 strike outs; if he can put together a couple more of these outings to round out a rough 2014, perhaps there will be something to look forward to in 2015.

http://i.imgur.com/7Cz3DBi.jpg Part one of the twin billing didn't go as hoped. Gibson looked lack luster, and Cleveland took advantage to the tune of 7H, 7ER, 2BB 0Ks and 2HR in only 3IP. He only threw 57% of his pitches for strikes and only one swing and miss. His changeup was particularly futile. It fooled no one, getting not a single swinging strike, and was put into play 10 times, on only 14 pitches! In fact, the only time it ended up a strike was if someone offered at it (10 BiP and 1 Foul). After the game, there was talk about Gibson possibly being shut down for the season, with indications that he might be struggling with a tired arm. Over the five outings I've blogged about, his average fastball velocity for both his 4 and 2 seam has remained steady at around 91.5. Looking at brooksbaseball.com, since the start of the year, Gibson has shown about a 1MPH drop over the last month, but that doesn't seem too significant. He threw 152.1 innings last year, and he's at 159 this year, so it doesn't seem like he should be tired.

http://i.imgur.com/IioT54T.jpg Is it just me, or does Trevor May rely to heavily on his fastball? Maybe it is because he does use the fastball so heavily, but he always seems to get great swinging strike rates on his off speed offerings, and that trend continued tonight. Four walks in 5 innings is still a lot, but he did a good job of working out of trouble tonight, something that he had struggled with earlier. Another thing of note is that his average fastball velocity has gone up over a half mile per hour since his first couple starts and peaked at 92 even tonight. Not only that, but he hit 94 twice as many times tonight (8) as he has in all of his previous starts combined (4). This to me is just another indicator that nerves were really messing with him early on.

http://i.imgur.com/wr12NTM.jpg Hughes continues to show incredible control, and the most amazing thing about tonight's performance is that of his 12 swinging strikes he induced, 10 of them came on his 4 seam fastball. Good miss rates, good strike out totals, and he pitched the entire 7th inning using only four seam fastballs (10 pitchees, 8 strikes, and 2 strike outs). A shame he couldn't get the win. Sorry the last two write ups were so brief. Posting at 3:45 will lead to that. Feel free to comment on any insights you have

http://i.imgur.com/fWS5pCP.jpg Sorry it's a day late, but it's going to be a dollar short. Long weekend, results in this being put up at 3:30am. Control was a little spotty, good swing and miss numbers. 8 hits, 2 ER against a decent LAA offense. Some bad defense really hurt him, particularly the Arcia error which not only led to a run, but also led to an extra 14 pitches being thrown that inning. Worked out of trouble a lot, but then again, was in trouble. After seeing an initial spike in his velocity after coming back from the DL, he's down about .8 MPH on average for his fastball. Don't know if that's something to take note of, or a non-issue.

http://i.imgur.com/bsmdmBx.jpg Low Swinging Strike percentage, 7 hits, 2 walks and 1 K. I don't think Gibson had his best stuff tonight, but he still managed 7 innings, and despite one big inning kept his team in the game. His command was not impressive, throwing only 63% of his pitches for strikes. Exacerbating that was his struggles on the first pitch of at bats. He fell behind 11 of the 28 batters he faced, and only got ahead on 12 of them (8 called strikes and 4 foul balls). He gave up three hits on the first pitch and got one out.

Thank's Paul.