Secondary User

So Kevin Jepsen made some interesting points last night after recording his first save for the injured Glen Perkins. He talked about how his changeup was important last night against the two lefties and how early in the year he had relied less on his changeup to lefties, and it was resulting in his left handed splits getting out of control. For those who missed it, Jepsen worked a one-two-three inning, striking out the side, including left handed hitting Chris Davis and switch hitting (batting left handed against Jepsen) Matt Weiters. In both at bats against lefties, he got ahead in the count by eliciting a swing and miss against his changeup. Looking at his pitch usage against lefties over 2014 and 2015, we see that he certainly is using it less this year, than last. http://i.imgur.com/9WOMMb7.jpg His splits over that time against lefties were: 2014: .219/.286/.342/.628 with a 29% K% 2015: .247/.355/.355/.709 with a 20% K% Here's what the usages look like before and after the trade: http://i.imgur.com/wLFLpRF.jpg And the corresponding LHB splits: Pre-trade:.250/.348/.329/.662 with a 21% K% Post-Trade: .188/.316/.188/.503 with a 38% K% There are some pretty key indicators that suggest that isn't mere happenstance. Neil Allen was the AAA pitching coach for the Rays organization last year, and (as reported by Kevin Wetmore) he contacted former associates in the Rays organization before the trade was made. Allen has also been vocal about increased usage of the changeup in his short tenure with the Twins. This has the makings of being a prime example of the importance of a strong analytics department. We're working on a SSS right now, but what we're seeing in the SSS is inline with what we've seen from Jepsen in the past. When he's using his changeup to lefties, he's fairly strong against them. Are we continuing to see the emergence of an analytics department that has for too long been woefully nonexistent? Jepsen's success moving forward against lefties will likely be an indication of which way the balance of power is moving.

Everyone panicked after the Toronto/Cleveland road trip too. Guess what? This team doesn't play well on the road. They ahve a middle of the road. This team is going to be around .500

They've actually drafted heavily in the bullpen, spending early picks on the bullpen

Sequencing. It makes a huge difference in observed results. Edit: And as I post this, I see the post directly above mine quotes Dave Cameron's talk about sequencing

If at the start of this season, you were told the team was going to finish .500, how would you feel?

And he was swinging his hips around to get in line to throw home. If he was going to first the whole way, he's just shuffling

Yes.....it does

After tonight's game, there should be plenty to talk about on this subject....

Let me give an example. For most pitchers, it's not a big deal. When you have a guy throwing a traditional FB/CB/SL/CH set it's usually easy. The pitches usually have enough speed/break differences that distinguishing them is easy. But I covered a Marlins game where David Phelps pitched. He has 4 pitches that regularly register in the high 80s, including a cutter and slider that don't feature a heck of a lot of movement. Guys like this, it seems like half the time the id'er is just guessing haphazardly. Most of the time, it's not a big deal, but 'most of the time' is pitchers who have easily distinguishable pitches

As someone who works in the sports media industry, I can tell you that it's usually ok, but will have it's fair share of times where it's just garbage

This is a brief rundown of lineup optimization from a modern (2012 anyway) sabr point of view Lineup Optimization One Quote:

This is a dated mode of thinking

Hold = non game ending save. They're the same thing

Tell that to the players that won't get paid as much and will have no control over where they sign

I've discussed Colabello at length on other sites, written almost identical posts as the one quoted above, and it's amazing how the bolded part above gets thoroughly ignored and you get called a hater, and you think he's talentless. It's what people who want to think they are more knowledgeable resort to when they try to sling it in your face.

The thing is, he's not going to be a starter in the minors this year anyway. He'll finish off the season coming out of the bullpen and they'll stretch him out over the off season. So the idea (which is basically what Kansas City was thinking last year with Finnegan) is, even if our long term plan is to stretch this guy out, but that won't start until the offseason, why not make use of him out of the bullpen if we think he's capable.

Tyler Jay/Taylor Rogers

If he follows it up with growth like May has shown this year, I don't care how much he struggles

He's going to be a conundrum He being Mauer

So.....is there a reason no one is thinking Sano? Plouffe scuffling.....definitely is an imposing pinch hitting bat..... If Kepler is an idea for a cup of coffee on the NL trip, wouldn't Sano be in that discussion as well?

The White Sox would also have to face Chris Sale perennially for a likely 5 years. This is never going to happen, but I think I would include Sano in discussions.....it really really really hurts me to say that, but I think I would.

3 IP, 41 pitches thrown. Anyone know what's up?

At first glance, you might think the idea of calling up Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to the major league club would be ridiculous. They are respectively the 1st and 2nd ranked prospects in a highly regarded Twins farm system, they are 21.5 and 22 years old, and a .279 and .254 batting average at AA doesn't scream "Ready for the Majors." But as is often the case, first impressions aren't all that telling. In fact, by the end of this piece, I think many of you will agree that both players are ready for a call to the majors. Rewind to April 23rd. The Chattanooga Lookouts had just lost to fall to a record of 6-7 with a roster that was believed to be one of the best in all the minors, a roster that included the aforementioned Buxton and Sano. But Byron had just been benched (for what would amount to two games) after starting the season hitting .180/.241/.300 with 14Ks/4BBs in 54 plate appearances. Miguel was in the lineup that day, but was struggling just as much, hitting .163/.333/.326 with 15Ks/10BBs in 54 PAs. The two were rusty, but then again, it was expected for two prospects who missed the bulk, if not all, of the 2014 season. The rust came off quite suddenly for Byron. He returned to the line up on the 25th and went 2 for 5 with a home run. Since his benching, Byron has hit .306/.373/.541 with 6 2B, 11 3B, and 5 HR. His K% dropped from 25.9% down to 19.3% and his BB% has gone from 7.4% to 9.5% (17.7% and 10.0% over that stretch respectively). He has stolen 18 bases and only been caught once. It took a little longer for Miguel, though. He struggled up through May 6th, hitting .163/.299/.388. The power was there (.225 ISO) and he was still drawing lots of walks (15.5% BB%), but the average was still lagging in large part due to a K% of 28.9%. Since then, Sano has hit .321/.397/.578 with 6 HR, 8 2B, and 1 3B while cutting his Ks down to 27 in 126 PAs (21.4% K%). Of course, small sample size is something with which to be concerned, but are these performances out of character for these two? Buxton was considered a fast track candidate before multiple injuries in 2014. Is it so odd to believe that he could still be viewed as such? The biggest surprise might be the home run power Buxton is exhibiting, but even if that doesn't translate, he will still be a weapon defensively and on the basepaths. As for Sano, let me offer you this. After hitting over .300 at A+, a mid-season promotion to AA saw continued power numbers, but a steep decline in average. Then, over his next 30+ games, he hit over .300 while maintaining his power before being called up to the majors. But you might be saying to yourself, "Miguel Sano hasn't been called to the majors yet....what is this writer thinking?" That's because I wasn't describing Miguel Sano; I was describing the path Joey Gallo took to the majors. I'll put their numbers side by side to illustrate my point: http://i.imgur.com/WCYUYwX.jpg I included a tab for Sano's last 29 games because I think including the start of the year when he's knocking off some rust is a little unfair. Look pretty similar though, don't they? Joey Gallo's 8 game debut thus far? 35 PAs, 3BBs, 15Ks, 2 HRs, .313/.371/.531. So you're the Twins front office, and the shine has begun to wear off the major league club. A team that was putting up runs in bunches earlier in the season has scored 25 runs in their last 10 games en route to a 3-7 record. Rumors have begun to spring up that they could be looking for a power bat, perhaps even one that plays the outfield. But what if those improvements came from within the organization? How could you fit both Buxton and Sano into the lineup on an everyday basis? If you agree that both prospects have exhibited enough to warrant promotions to the big club, the question becomes, how do they get everyday at bats? You aren't going to call these players up to be bench guys. To make room on the active roster, the first obvious move is to DFA Deunsing. He has struggled, and Tyler Jay has the potential to step in as a lefty specialist in the short term. The second move is a little less clear, but I think there are two options. Option 1: DFA Nunez. Option 2: Option Hicks or Rosario to AAA. DFAing Nunez seems to make more sense if we are prioritizing player potential, but optioning Hicks or Rosario opens up a spot in the outfield for Buxton every day. However, you could start a three-man rotation between Hicks/Hunter/Rosario between the two corner spots and plug Buxton into CF every day. It is more difficult to find everyday at bats for Sano. Even amidst a struggle, Trevor Plouffe is not going to be moving out of the lineup, and the same thing can be said for Mauer. With Vargas recently being called up, don't look for him to be sitting out too many games, either. That leaves Sano and Plouffe as options at third base, Plouffe, Mauer and Vargas as options at 1st base, and all 4 as options as DH. It could work, but it would most likely result in a few less at bats, all around. Put all of this together, and the conclusion is clear: If you believed Buxton was on a fast track in 2013, why wouldn't he still be considered on a fast track? As for Sano, a recent comparison to one Mr. Gallo leads me to believe he can be successful in his jump from AA to the majors. Whether the team can find the at bats seems to be the last looming question.

For everyone on their "You're illogical if you think the Twins could be buyers this year," it's time to just calm down. We're all aware that the wheels could come falling off this thing, but if the team is competitive through June, they certainly have the organizational depth and some positional redundancies to make moves at positions of very strong need (catcher, SS) without mortgaging the future.

Fair enough