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Everything posted by Secondary User
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http://i.imgur.com/Xiw0AIe.jpg Going to make this quick. A lot of four seam fastballs, and a lot less change ups. His Swinging Strike rates were down as a result, but he still picked up 6 Ks in 5 innings. He did walk one, and that walk came in to score on a 2 run homerun after he left a change up in the middle of the plate and Viciedo was waiting on it. His control did slip a little bit in the last couple innings. He got strike one on 15 out of 20 batters who didn't put the ball in play on the first pitch (happened twice). He didn't have a three ball count until the walk he gave up with one out in the fourth, but it happened two more times after that (both in the fifth), and both at bats resulted in a hit. In the end, it's a 1.4 WHIP, a 10.8 K/9, a 1.8 BB/9 and, last but not least, a W.
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http://i.imgur.com/33FOlc8.jpg Control. It comes down to control. Before 2012, Tommy Milone's BB/9 had always been below the 1.71 that he posted in his first full season in the majors with the exception of one season at A+ ball in 2009. He pitched to a 13-10 record that year, a 3.74 ERA, and a 2.8 WAR that was indiciative of a solid mid to back end of the rotation arm. He even was seeing some decent K/9 numbers for a guy who throws as soft as he does (6.5 K/9). In 2013, his BB/9 jumped to it's highest levels of his professional career, at 2.2, but he also saw an increase in his K/9, to 7.3. His ERA bounced up to 4.14, but he still went 12-9, and still looked like a decent option for the back end of a rotation. Through July of 2014, his BB/9 took another jump to 2.4, and he saw a dip in his K/9. His ERA, however, dropped to 3.55, the lowest of his major league career. His FIP however, was up to 4.41, only slightly less than his 2013 levels of 4.62. Then he got traded to the Twins..... Coming into tonight, his BB/9 since donning the Twins uniform was at 3.7, and that jumped to 4.8 after tonight's 4 walks. He only threw 57% of his pitches for strikes, and that's despite having some very good swinging strike rates, particularly on his change up. But you can almost see the very moment when he runs into his problems. He starts the game out, retiring 5 straight. The common theme? All 5 at bats started with a called strike with his fastball. In fact, of his first 27 pitches, 19 were strikes (5 Called strikes, 7 foul balls, 2 swinging strikes, and 5 balls put into play). Then comes Michael Taylor. Ball 1. Ball 2. Ball 3. Get me over strike. Ball 4. Then Tyler Flowers. Ball 1. Strike 1. Ball 2. Ball 3. Two run home run. The next two batters got hits on 3 pitches total, then another 5 pitch walk before inducing a flyball from Alexei Ramirez to get out of the inning. Of the 20 batters that Milone faced, he got strike 1 on 8 of them. Here's how his first pitches broke down http://i.imgur.com/ryg926g.jpg It's of note that the Swinging strike on the first pitch change up came in the last at bat of the 2nd inning when his fastball command had all but disappeared and he got aggressive Alexi to offer at it. He has to be able to get his secondary pitches over the plate for strike one on a more consistent basis. Missing on the edges with his fastball is fine, but if he can't consistently put his off-speed pitches over for strikes, hitters will sit fastball, and he will get into trouble.
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Article: A Closer Look at the 2015 Twins
Secondary User replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's amazing how often that schill insult gets thrown around at anyone who dares take a positive outlook on the future of the Twins organization. It comes from the crowds that don't pay attention to the organization as a whole, and simply watch the product at the major league level. They look at Wins and losses, ERA, and RBI as their key indicators for how good a player is performing, and often times don't understand the role advanced metrics play in evaluation and prediction. Then they play the "How, as a fan, can you not be outraged by this horrible team" card, and follow it up with "Prospects are just prospects until they've proven something in the majors" as if that isn't a concept that you're aware of. Kudos to you for clarifying and doubling down on your statement. -
http://i.imgur.com/X2mm606.jpg 8 innings with three unearned runs on one swing of the bat in the 7th were the only blemish for Phil in today's game. He hung a cutter to Nick Hundley two batters after Plouffe air-mailed a double play grounder into right field. Hughes only tallied 5 strike outs over his 8 innings, but once again, didn't walk a batter and only gave up 5 hits. S for the peripherals, good control numbers, as he surpassed the 70% strike numbers. Foul balls were also down from previous outings with only 14. He had better than usual swinging strike numbers as well, getting up to 11.6%, though Baltimore's 10.7% average undoubtedly helped. One note, the four unknown pitches come from the first AB of the 8th inning. Not sure what happened
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http://i.imgur.com/7VklLWt.jpg I'm torn on how I feel about this outing. On the one hand, Nolasco didn't seem to have great command throughout the day. He gave up 12 hits, 2 BBs, only 2Ks and two home runs. He seemed to be working in trouble most the day, but outside of the third inning, he was able to get out of it. Baltimore is a very potent offense that will make you pay dearly for mistakes, and the 3 big home runs that accounted for 8 of Baltimore's 12 runs are evidence of that. I question the decision to walk Davis to get to Hardy. He's a sub .200 hitter against both righties and lefties, Ks a lot. Hardy isn't the fastest guy, but he is on the fly ball side of the spectrum when it comes to GB/FB ratios compared to league averages. I know that the radio guys were saying Maddon did the same thing a couple weeks ago, and says he would stick by it, but he got burned by it as well. Just seems like I'd take my chances going after Davis. Anyway, 12 Hits, with the 2 basically every pitch but the splitter being hit well. 9.7% swinging strike rate is below Baltimore's season avearge. Had hoped for a good effort to piggy back off of his last outing, but maybe it was asking too much against a dangerous Baltimore squad.
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http://i.imgur.com/RVCERK5.jpg Seemed like May was cruising through three, then a 2 hits, a hit batter and walk later and that's the game. From a numbers stand point, May's control was meh.....61% strikes. Got a lot of swinging strikes on his Change up and 4 seam, and a 16.7 Swinging Strike rate is nothing to shake a stick at, even for Baltimore (10.6% on the year). 8Ks in 4.2. Trying to list some positives as we see another disappointing outing....
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http://i.imgur.com/qwgDMJC.jpg Sorry about the delay. Newborn child doing wonders for a consistent sleep schedule and free time :\. Command was sub par (59.3%), particularly with his 4 seam. Got good swing and strike rates, especially on his slider, and even his 2 seam, but wasn't efficient. Can't complain too much about 4 hits over 5 innings, Though three walks does put his WHIP at 1.4. Not terrible, but you'd like better. One earned run against a potent Baltimore line up does make it easier to stomach. On the other hand, 6Ks through 5 innings gives him 35 strike outs in his last 7 outings for a 7.56 K/9 rate. A couple things of note. In the post game interviews Gibson did talk about some improvement in his curveball, and also the decision to use his changeup more against righties. Link down below. http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/08/30/
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Thanks for the clarification Jokin. I didn't write the event in chronological order, just clumped them together, but I forgot to put two hit batters
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Tommy Milone's average fastball velocity in the majors by year: 2011 - 87.8 2012 - 87.4 2013 - 87.0 2014 - 86.5 He's down a little more than a mile per hour over his career, and about a mile per hour since he was in Oakland
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http://i.imgur.com/2UicW5y.jpg According to the GameDay PitchF/x, Milone really changed up his offerings this time around. He didn't mix in his curveball until the later innings (didn't throw it until the 4th inning). According to PitchF/x, he threw a cutter, and threw it quite a bit (19 offerings), and it worked very well. While his command of his 4 seam was off (though some people I spoke to thought that the zone was getting pinched; any input into that would be greatly appreciated), his cutter got him a couple swinging strikes, and when it was put in play accounted for an out (0/4). His 4-seam and changeup didn't seem to be fooling, getting only one swinging strike each and getting hit with good contact (3/7 and 4/7 respectively). His last outing, I found myself thinking that the cutter had been such an effective pitch for Hughes, and Milone being a control guy, might benefit from that. Looking up his player card on brooksbaseball.net, a cutter is listed as one of his main offerings, yet it wasn't in the Detroit game. Again, the numbers say his command was off, but I'd love any input on what the strike zone was like tonight.
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http://i.imgur.com/GR7ItWI.jpg Same story, different night. A pitcher's duel that saw the Twins scratch a lone run across in the top of the 7th only to see the Royals score in their last at bat (last night the 9th, tonight the 8th) to snatch a victory away. Hughes pitched a marvelous game. He commanded of all his pitches, throwing only 20 balls all night and not walking a batter. He was efficient, entering the 8th having only thrown 70 pitches, before a couple of soft base hits, a stolen base and a couple more infield hits later and Hughes was out of the game and would end up being charged with 4 runs. Only two of the 5 hits Hughes gave up in the 8th inning left the infield, one of which being Ibanez's bloop line drive. His swinging strikes were low, but again, KC doesn't swing and miss often. His 4 seam was very effective in getting outs, as only hit was recorded on it out of 15 balls put in play. None of his other pitches fared as well in that regard.
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http://i.imgur.com/aOQ2S3b.jpg Well that turned quickly. Four pitches into the ninth and what looked like it could be a win on a night where he pitched fantasticly turned into a no decision. But since this is about the starting pitching let's focus on that fantastic part. Nolasco gave up 3 hits, 1 walk, 2 hit by pitch and had six strike outs over 7 innings on 97 pitches. With the exception of the two HBP, his command was strong. Both HBP were on Billy Butler, a man who clogs the base paths, but both were leading off an inning, and both when he was ahead in the count (0-1 and 1-2 respectively). Still, he only allowed 6 baserunners all night, and only once (2nd inning) did he allow more than one runner on in an inning. 22 foul balls/tips (I swear I'm going to edit my template and start including that in here) and 8.2% swinging strike rate, but as I mentioned last week, Kansas City has one of the lowest Swing and Miss rates in the league (28th of 30, 7.9%), so this is no surprise.
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http://i.imgur.com/pNFEC5L.jpg?1 Gibson's start was really highlighted by some shaky command. He got a lot of swinging strikes (12.6%), but he seemed to be working from behind in the count often. His 2 seam command in particular really seemed to get the better of him. While his slider did do a good job of getting swinging strikes, it was put into play often and with fair success (4 hits on 6 balls in play). He did end the game with 5 strike outs in under 5 innings, which puts him above a 9 K/9 rate, but he also had 4 walks.
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http://i.imgur.com/s5JhYDc.jpg This was a mixed bag start for May. For the first time since coming up, he didn't walk a man, but he also gave up 11 hits in 5.1 innings. He leaned much more heavily on his curveball than he did in previous outings (9 in his previous outing, 24 this time through), and it had very good results. He got a good swing strike rate on the curve, as well as 8 balls put into play and only 2 hits. On the other hand, the Tigers racked up 9 hits on 13 balls put into play on his fastball. I was very disappointed that going into the 6th inning, the Twins didn't have someone warming up in the bullpen. Typically, with a starting pitcher at 84 pitches going into the 6th, I wouldn't mind, but May has been a guy who has been struggling, had put together a good performance to this point, and was facing one of the best offenses in the league. I would have liked to see May as soon as the first guy got on base with one out. At that point, he's in line for the win, and despite giving up some hits (all of them singles up to that point), he has a positive to build off of. Instead, he was kept in two batters two long, gave up a double, and a soft single to center to lose the lead and turning a positive into a negative.
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http://i.imgur.com/7zIEyR5.jpg Sorry for being late with this. Was out of town on some family matters. I know these are available at other sites now, but posting for posterity's sake. Pino left the game and after being optioned down after the game was placed on the minor league DL. Since he's on the minor league DL, he won't accrue service time, or earn the league minimum like he would if he were on the major league DL. This is going to be a very interesting situation, because as the 26th man, the Twins had no choice in sending him down, and the 26th man rule has no language in it pertaining what happens if someone is injured while being the 26th man. Expect a grievance to be filed. As for his pitching performance, typical Pino. Not overly effective, not a lot of swing and miss, but good control and enough to get the win in a game where the Twins scored 12.
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http://i.imgur.com/jGI3TS3.jpg Sorry for the delay and poor quality of the image. I'm out of town and away from my computer so I tabulated it old school tonight. Not going to be a lot of insight from me, hoping to hear some more from you guys. Quick thoughts. First time covering Milone, and noticing he primarily stuck with the 4 seam and change tonight. Detroit was very aggressive. 22 balls in play, 16 foul balls and 7 swinging strikes makes 45 balls that were offered at. Throw in 37 balls, and that's 82 pitches, leaving only 17 called strikes, 14 of which came on the 4 seam, 1 on the change and 2 on the curve ball. That's all for tonight. May upload a cleaner version on Sunday when I'm back in town
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http://i.imgur.com/nf87QCd.jpg Phil Hughes pitched a great game. Amazing command, throwing a 71-26 ratio on balls to strikes and some nice swinging strike numbers. One thing of note (though it's actually not on this image, and might start becoming part of it in the future) is that Cleveland had 32 foul balls, 3 of which were foul tips. In the top of the 3rd, Zach Walters fouled off 7 pitches in one at bat alone! There are two ways that you can look at a stat like that: According to Brooksbaseball.net, Hughes has a 30.84% foul ball rate on his 4 seam, a 12.09% on his Curve and a 21.40% on his Cutter. Today he had 17/56= 30.4% foulball rate on his 4 seam, 4/16=25% on his Curve and 8/24=33.3% on his Cutter, so he's above his averages on the latter two. 1) Cleveland was just a little off and this is something to be concerned about 2) Hughes is doing a great job pitching to spots that batters can't do anything but foul it off and his pitches have enough movement to be throwing off hitters. When I get to, I don't get to watch the games on a very quality picture, so it's tough for me to evaluate that. Any input from anyone?
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http://i.imgur.com/eB9pmdG.jpg Mixed bag tonight from Nolasco. Nolasco's Fastball velocity seemed all over the place. He started the first two innings around 91-92 mph with both his 4 and 2 seam, but at the end of the first he touched 93 with back to back 2 seams. Then, in the third inning his velocity dipped down, registering 89-90 (thouched 92 with his last 2 seam of the inning). Then for the rest of the game he seemed hovered at 91-92, while a few 89, 90 and 93 mixed in. The Indians came into tonight's contest with the 7th lowest SwStk% in the league (8.5%), so his 8.6% is right on pace, if a little low still. His slider, while effective for some swinging strikes, when put in play did not help him much. I seemed surprised when I looked up and noticed it was 2 outs in the 7th inning when Nolasco was pulled. It really didn't seem like he had his best stuff and that he seemed in trouble often, but did a moderately good job pitching around it. That inherited runner that scored took his start from a respectable (respectively anyway) 4.05 ERA outing to a 5.40. 6 Ks, for an 8.1 K/9 rate tonight is also a nice number to see. It's hard for me to tell if Nolasco is mechanically right yet or not. The velocity dip on the fastball over a full inning makes it seem as if something still falls out of place every once in a while. Any insight would be greatly appreciated.
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Kyle Gibson's pitch breakdown from Tuesday's 7-5 loss against the Cleveland Indians. Gibson pitched 5.1 innings, allowing 5R/ER on 8 hits, 1 BB and 4 SOs. http://i.imgur.com/7qDVdRG.jpg In his post game interview, Gibson said his fastball command was in and out, and his slider was his worst pitch, and the numbers pretty much reflect this. His slider was effective at getting swings and misses, but 3 of the 8 hits he allowed were on the slider, while the other 5 were on fastballs. His changeup also had good swing->miss action and when it was put in play, was good for an out.
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Article: Affiliate Roundup
Secondary User replied to naobermiller's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nice Report -
Trevor May, 8/18/14
Secondary User commented on Secondary User's blog entry in Twins Pitch Breakdown
One minor adjustment. I had registered a foul tip as a swinging strike, so his total swinging strikes should be 6 and his swinging strike rate should be 7.1%. I'll be updating the image shortly -
I know this information is available on the web for people, but I compile it during the game and I like to look at it. I also enjoy having some of these key demographics together in one quick table. I've yet to decide how I'm going to present the info (images aren't seeming to post over and copying data from excel is losing it's formatting), so for the time being, it's in the form of a JPEG in the attached Gallery. I may just make one for each starting pitcher and keep a rolling compendium of their starts, but that is still yet to be seen. If you have any suggestions for other things to track, or any comments, feel free to leave them below. http://i.imgur.com/NRdeVZT.jpg Administrative stuff out of the way, May's control tonight was spotty. Between the 2nd and 4th inning, he actually threw 30 of his 40 pitches for strikes. In the 4th though, his fastball command disappeared (9 of his 16 fastballs were balls). Then, the Royals hit a couple of first pitches that were down the middle to drive in all three runs. He didn't get hit overly hard, got a fair amount of swinging strikes (against the second best team in the league at not swinging and missing). Some things to be optimistic about still.

