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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    One other point about the lower strike out pitchers - all of them had at least one plus pitch and excellent control/command. David Wells was another like that. So, in prospect terms, you can get around it but the problem comes when you have a guy like Liam Hendriks - no plus pitches, probably ok control but iffy command ... boom. (The opposite is true, too. Tons of guys flame out that can throw mid 90s).
  2. gunnarthor
    Strike outs can be a bit overrated - several very good pitchers have thrived without being much more than avg or less strike out pitchers - Doc Halladay, Radke, Buerhle, Maddux, Oswalt, Glavine - and several high strike out pitchers have been massively overrated. The important thing is that most of those guys didn't walk anyone. Fewer men on base, fewer chances to score runs.
  3. gunnarthor
    Yeah, he could turn into a nice #3 or 4 - which is a good thing.
  4. gunnarthor
    How much is the #46 pick worth?
  5. gunnarthor
    This is a bit insane. I always sorta liked Oliva, tough guy, could hit LHP. Morneau tried to run through him once and ended up coughing up blood and missing a few games back in the day. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/dodgers-guerrero-has-part-of-ear-bitten-off-by-teammate/
  6. gunnarthor
    Really nice to see all the pitchers doing well this year.
  7. gunnarthor
    Yes, Santana was a better pitcher than Radke. Shocking. And Radke was a much better pitcher than Bronson Arroyo - and Josh Beckett and many, many other pitchers who had success in the post season.
  8. gunnarthor
    For crying out loud .... Radke pitched better than Johan Santana in the playoffs. We didn't lose because of him. The entire point of this was that we need good pitchers of any type - if it's a Santana clone, great, if it's a Radke clone, great.
  9. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure I knew 218 HOFers even after looking at the list. That's amazing.
  10. gunnarthor
    As pointed out above, Radke did just fine in the playoffs - the offense less so. And pitchers like Radke rarely get to free agency and, when they do, they don't sign for Kevin Correia money.
  11. gunnarthor
    That's why using era only is a bad idea. ERA+, which adjusts for ballparks but not leagues, has Radke ahead. Radke also had as many 5 WAR seasons as Beckett and John Lackey combined.
  12. gunnarthor
    May had a pretty good night tonight - 8ip (107 pitches), 0 runs, 4 hits (3 singles and a triple), 4 walks, 6 strike outs. May faced only 3 batters in 5 of the 8 innings.
  13. gunnarthor
    With Kolek I wonder how much it's concern over his secondary pitches. Throwing 100 is nice but if he's a one trick pony, he's a flame out. That pick would kill.
  14. gunnarthor
    I've actually been kicking that trip around with the wife but it looks unlikely despite the cheap airline tickets.
  15. gunnarthor
    Looking at the few sites that give grades to pitchers, there aren't that many 70s out there. mlbpipeline, which is Callis and Mayo and they are really good at this prospecting thing, gave Nola two plus pitches (60 grade) as well as plus command. That's a #2 pitcher. They didn't give Aiken (their #1) any 70s. Behind Nola, the only 70s I saw were Holmes and Touki's fastballs. I admit that I am bigger on command/control than most. Beede scares me b/c I think he can be another Hunt. Nola/Freeland both have issues, they aren't in the top tier of pitchers in this draft but it's only three deep and none will fall. I can make reasonable arguments for about 6 guys to go at #5. I guess I just don't like the Nola as Wimmers ideas being floated out there. He's #5 on Callis' list. He's legitimately in the BPA conversation and seems to be getting short stick around here.
  16. gunnarthor
    Logan Darnell, a 6th round pick, has looked good at AAA and made a cup of coffee in the majors. That said, he almost oozes "Twins Type" pitcher. Other than that, no. A few relief pitchers have probably advanced beyond A+ but we're pretty strong in relief arms. I thought the idea of grabbing a college arm and giving them a chance to start made some sense in a weak draft. But the mlb draft if tough - getting two major leaguers out of a draft is a good draft so the idea of trying to get creative with later round picks had some appeal. They had some success over the years in focusing on control types in later rounds and got some real value out of it. Maybe unused college arms might work. Worth a shot but it didn't work.
  17. gunnarthor
    29 other teams have tons of problems creating rotations, just like the Twins. From 02-10, the Twins pitching staff was always in the top half of the league and usually in the top 5. "The Twins might win more games, but they won't win more games in the post season picking noodle armed control pitchers." That isn't accurate. Most of the Twins postseason losses were b/c of crapping hitting, not pitching. 02 - first round, Twins pitchers outpitched the A's big three. And against the Angels, Radke, Mays and Milton had a 2.07 era in 26ip and the bullpen and Rick Reed were crushed. Offense takes some games off. 03 - Twins lose two games 3-1 and 4-1 (bullpen loss) and Santana gets crushed in the 8-1 loss. 04 - Twins lose two extra innings games. Santana and offense showed up. 06 - 3.81 postseason era. Team doesn't win a game. No offense except for White and Morneau. 09 - Blackburn and Pavano pitch well, Liriano, Nathan and Duensing, not so much. 10 - No one pitches well, no one hits well. I don't really have a response to the idea that you'd take a markedly worse pitcher (Beckett) over a better one (Radke) based on 7 postseason starts. If Radke had pitched in Boston, they'd have done just fine. And no one is arguing the Twins should take Wade Miley #5 - all those pitchers were being discussed in the areas they were drafted: late first round or later. The position I've been saying is that a guy like Nola (or Freeland) who profile as #2 pitchers according to the links I've posted, would be fine picks at #5.
  18. gunnarthor
    I don't remember Parmelee being a huge reach at the time. BA actually had a top 150 end of season that year and he was #150. In any event, I think the Twins were also kicking around Ian Kennedy at the time and he went one pick later. Looking back on that draft and it ended up the worst Twins draft of the decade but it took a while for that to happen. Joe Benson made a couple top 100 lists, Valencia came in third in ROY voting just a few years later and Tyler Robertson really looked good for a bit in the minors. But none of them (and I suppose Parmelee still has time) really made the jump in the majors.
  19. gunnarthor
    It's interesting but I can't see Kolek falling past the Cubs unless there is more concern over his secondary pitches than we know about.
  20. gunnarthor
    We've had six drafts and Johnson's high upside strategy has been less productive than Radcliff's "safe" one, which helped the Twins extend their 10 year run atop the AL Central. The Twins would have better off if they had grabbed guys like Wade Miley and Lance Lynn over Hunt/Gutierrez under Johnson. He's been too enamored with high 90s fastballs and less concerned with health, ability to start or control than he should be. And that's led to some mediocre results. World series rotations have all sorts of arms and are littered with pitchers with 2.0-3.0 WAR seasons, which is what Baker, Slowey, et al managed to provide 8x. Roy Halladay struck out 6.6 k/9 in his AL career. Radke was a much better pitcher than Josh Beckett. Lohse was an important arm for the 2011 Cards. Buerhle anchored a WS staff and has two no hitters. Doug Fister strikes out 6.3 k/9 and has had a nice little career, etc. The idea that the Twins need a specific type of pitcher (in your case, flame throwers) isn't accurate. They need better pitchers. They need starters that will keep them in games, throw 200 innings. If they do it like vintage Johan Santana, great. If it's 2008 Blackburn, that works too. (Please note I am not advocating they use the #5 pick on 36th round talent) In this draft, at #5, there is no Santana. Nola and Freeland might be #2 starters. That's not a bad thing to go after even if they aren't going to be more than 7 k/9 guys in the majors.
  21. gunnarthor
    I think Gordon probably makes the most sense. A lot of draft rankers have him in the 4-7 range, he's very likely to stick at short, which is a organizational weakness. Very likely the BPA when they pick and he'll likely sign for a little less than others so they save money. (That said, if one of the other four (Aiken, Rodon, Kolek or Jackson) fall, I'd hope we grab them.) But Gordon isn't really a sexy pick and it'll be years before he makes the majors so it's a bit boring. I'd be ok with either of the two college arms - Nola/Freeland - or if the Twins went a little risky with Touki.
  22. gunnarthor
    It's really not as simple as you make is seem - there's a balance between floor/ceiling, projectability, injury risk etc. The harsh reality is that the Twins have taken a high risk position on drafting pitchers since 2008 and it hasn't done well for them. Gibson and Logan Darnell are the only major leaguers and Stewart is the only bigtime prospect (I loved the pick). It's harder to draft top talent when picking in the 20s and later and maybe the old Twins had a better idea in grabbing "safe" picks like Slowey, Baker, Duensing, Swarzak, Crain, Blackburn etc in later rounds and taking the Garza that falls in your lap. I think you also overestimate how many true #1s may be in a draft. The three big arms at the top won't be there at #5 and not all of them even project as true #1s. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/7/3226335/defining-1-2-3-4-5-starters According to mlbpipeline, Nola has two plus pitches to go with plus control (Freeland, too). Both would have #2 ceilings if they reach it. Mlbpipeline, which is Mayo and Callis, rank Nola #5 in this draft, ahead of Gordon. So Nola isn't another Wimmers. I admit that control is bigger for me than others. A guy like Beede, for instance, terrifies me.
  23. gunnarthor
    First, there is a huge difference between the 28th pick and the 5th pick - Wimmers wasn't a reach there. Secondly, the Wimmers pick was under Deron Johnson who is still the draft guru. Third, the "old Twins" drafted pitchers a lot more successfully than Johnson has - in six drafts, Gibson is the only pitcher he has taken to make the majors.
  24. gunnarthor
    Nope, he was a pretty good pick, actually. 28th overall in the first round but 13th in WAR so far. The 07 draft was a bit weak - the best players chosen in the first round after him were Todd Frazier, Josh Donaldson and maybe D'Arnaud. The big miss in the draft was Stanton falling to 76th overall (the Twins had the 28th pick and then the 92nd). There was a lot of talk that Pohlad had put a low draft budget together and Revere (like Span) signed quickly and cheaply.
  25. gunnarthor
    I think it's 10 days unless he's replacing an injured player.
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