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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I like May a lot. I said I thought he'd lead the Twins in strikeouts this year so (course, I also said Meyer would get the 5th spot so Nostradamus, I am not). I really hope he's on the ML roster from the get-go.
  2. gunnarthor
    I think the Twins will stick with Graham. He was a top prospect and is coming back from injury. If he's throwing mid-90s, they'll see what they have.
  3. gunnarthor
    I've always liked Varva and Morneau and Kubel swore by him and their ml improvement suggested he knew something. Good for him.
  4. gunnarthor
    I think they could have seen the issue and still been the villain. There had been previous examples of abnormal UCLs - Dickey being the most famous - and that usually cost a few hundred thousand, not 3m as their first post-medical offer was. I'm pretty sure the Astros were using the abnormality to try and use Aiken's money to sign others which is not how negotiations under the CBA are supposed to happen. And, had they not settled with Nix, there probably would have been a decision from the arbitrator that said as much.
  5. gunnarthor
    I was against it, mostly b/c of the injury thing, but it was fun seeing how much it irritated some people.
  6. gunnarthor
    Nice work.
  7. gunnarthor
    Darn it. i really wanted him in the 5th starter spot.
  8. gunnarthor
    Astros FO is, hopefully, not celebrating over this but Astro fans sites are. crawfishboxes - their TwinkieTown - already has a couple different fanposts up on it and most comment sections have some pretty rough comments toward him.
  9. gunnarthor
    It'll depend on the medicals, of course. But I like the idea. A healthy Aiken is supposed to be the best talent in this draft and seeing how well Gioltio came back from TJS, I'd rather they do that. But it's a pretty risky bet.
  10. gunnarthor
    Sadly, Astros sites are pretty happy about the injury.
  11. gunnarthor
    Oh, that's horrible for a number of reasons. Hopefully he comes back ok.
  12. gunnarthor
    I voted in the 40-80 range group. I'll just say what I've said before, defense is important but right now it's impact is being overstated (and the measurements are unreliable).
  13. gunnarthor
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/marlins-close-to-extension-with-christian-yelich.html Nice deal for Miami. It gives them control of his first two FA years (and eight years in total, assuming option is picked up) for about 64.5m.
  14. gunnarthor
    Here's the first thing I found - http://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2014/09/the-real-problem-with-baseballs-defensive-stats/ "It's also true that fielding stats don't correlate quite as strongly year to year as the batting stats do (see chart after break)." You also see pretty big variations by every team, year to year, on fangraphs lists as well. If you want to say the grouping of a teams defense is right over a few years - i.e. Twins from 02-10 were a top 5 defensive team but from 11-14 a bottom 5, I'd probably agree. But I'd probably disagree if you wanted to say they were in the bottom half of the AL in 04.
  15. gunnarthor
    If my airplane going to Ft. Myers landed in Orlando, I wouldn't be ok with it being .1% accurate - although my kids would probably enjoy going to Disneyworld. And I do think it is inaccurate as opposed to "less precise". Defensive numbers, especially one year ones, can be wildly inaccurate, even for teams. (which doesn't mean I don't think the Twins are a good defensive team right now. No one is arguing that. I don't think anyone is arguing they won't be one of the ten worst again either).
  16. gunnarthor
    In the article, Molitor also mentioned that he liked Boyer and Hamberger. I can't believe those two would make the team out of ST?
  17. gunnarthor
    I won't answer for others but the inaccuracy of the numbers bothers me a lot. I don't think anyone is suggesting that the Twins defense isn't bad - at least I haven't read that - but if you want to say that something is a problem, you might want to make sure your valuation is correct or at least close to it. (And the fact that these are projections based on questionable measurements multiplied by inaccurate values kind of mucks the issue up more).
  18. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure these are right. (Although if it is, Berrios is going straight to AAA). But the rosters have Walker and Burdi in A+ and that doesn't seem right. And Thorpe, Stewart, Gonsalves all at A-.
  19. gunnarthor
    I do agree that he tended to use the closer only in save situations but that might not be as telling. Gardy was pretty good about not necessarily having his best pitcher be his closer - Everyday Eddie certainly wasn't and there's a good argument that while Nathan's numbers were fantastic, some of the other pitchers he used in higher leverage situations were actually the better pitchers. Gardy sure believed in the LOOGY, which wasn't always conventional usage. And those early Twins teams under Gardy sure saw a lot more bullpen chess than these last few years teams ever did. HBT or baseball analysts actually credited the 02-04 Twins 18 games above pyth W/L: on Gardy's bullpen usage.
  20. gunnarthor
    http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/296823611.html Molitor is thinking of making guys get more than 3 outs and using Perkins in non-save situations. Maybe he can become a "firefighter" instead of a closer. "The idea, he said, is more flexibility, more ways to react as situations come up. Molitor doesn’t know yet how he will use the bullpen once the season begins, and he figures that a lot of games might indeed fall into an inning-at-a-time pattern. But he wants his relievers to be ready for more than three outs. “Yesterday we said, ‘OK, get through an inning and then get two more outs for us,’ ” he said. “We’re trying to get those guys to throw closer to 30 pitches in their outings now,” far more than most throw in an inning. [Pitching coach] Allen supports that notion, “because if you pitch one inning consistently, you begin to think of yourself as a three-out guy. We’d like to get a little bit more distance out of the guys, instead of a one-and-done habit.”"
  21. gunnarthor
    .75 runs a game seems pretty big. Why would you think it was that high? And why are you confident that both the measurements and values of defense are accurate enough to make such a claim?
  22. gunnarthor
    Just take the numbers with a huge grain of salt. We don't know how to accurately measure defense and we don't know how to accurately value the numbers after we get them. Those are two pretty big issues. It's really not worth worrying about on a this scale.
  23. gunnarthor
    They certainly don't seem to like the corner OF positions, which isn't a surprise, but also don't like 3B, which might be. Plouffe scored fairly well there last year. Anyway, if their measurements are right, the valuation of that means about a six win difference between the best team and the worst team, (if I'm doing the math right).
  24. gunnarthor
    http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/17/entertainment/feat-batgirl-joker-cover-pulled/index.html I might have read 3 batman comics in my life and had never even heard of "The Killing Joke" before today but apparently Joker may have sexually assaulted Batgirl? And DC apparently knew this and went ahead with a pretty bad cover - to celebrate the Joker's 75th anniversary - that they pulled today. I guess they got publicity out of it but that seems pretty cruddy way of going about it.
  25. gunnarthor
    http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/03/18/twinsights-shane-robinson-has-opt-out-clause-in-twins-contract/ I guess I didn't know this but Robinson has an out-clause in his contract if he doesn't make the ML team. Defensively, he's supposed to be really good but his bat is bad and the Twins already have Schafer. So I don't think he'll make the team but I also think someone else would probably nab him if the opportunity arose.
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