gunnarthor
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Everything posted by gunnarthor
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I'm not really sure young bullpens are particularly relevant to any team, including a rebuilding team. Certainly, other rebuilding teams have had old bullpens. Ideally, you want cheap arms (which they have) and replaceable arms (ditto). The elite bullpen arms the Twins have in the minors aren't quite ready yet, although could be up by the break if all goes well. I think worrying about whether or not 25 year old Tonkin or 26 year old Achter, for instance, makes the team seems a bit over thinking things.
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Not quite sure why he's getting ripped on here. Would you prefer he spent millions on Soriano? 18m on Gregerson? 13m on Neshek? I can see an argument for letting some of the young arms sink or swim but not sure about the cheapness claim. And Ryan has had some nice success with bullpen rehab projects like Burton, Fein, Guerrier, Reyes, etc.
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http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/99791/rule-5-pick-sean-gilmartin-likely-to-make-opening-day-roster?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter I'm a bit surprised, he's been hit pretty hard this spring. But it looks like the Mets will make Gilmartin a LOOGY, if nothing else.
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I don't think you are giving Houston or Cleveland enough "credit". (Unless Cleveland made a move that I don't remember). Houston is going with Gattis/Rasmus/Springer.
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Gosh, good think I said "the last few years". Sheesh.
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I would expect that Nolasco, GIbson and Arcia improve for sure. Nolasco had never had a season that bad and, like Mauer, looked better after he came back from injury. I think Gibson and Arcia are both breakout candidates. Perkins and Mauer are questions. I think Mauer isn't as good as some but he should still be better. Perkins injury concerns me but, if healthy, he should be closer to 2013 levels than 2014.
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http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/12587428/kris-bryant-javier-baez-addison-russell-sent-minors-chicago-cubs Cubs sent the #2 prospect in baseball to AAA. (They also sent Baez and Russell down as well). Bryant was considered by most to be good enough to start now (and the Cubs traded away their third baseman this offseason) but if they keep him in the minors for 10 days they get another year of control. So, they did that. His agent, Scott Boras, has said the Cubs lack integrity and owe it to the fans to let him start the year on the ML roster.
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Comparing LFers to CFers and catchers, bat only? Nicely done. Is there any other possible comparison that would have made sense to the reader in the original context? Let's see: Suzuki 2.2 WAR Parmelee -1.0 WAR Schafer .3 WAR Colabello -1.0 WAR And, I guess the same is true of the pitchers Hughes 4.2 WAR Gibson 2.0 WAR Nolasco 0.0 WAR Santana 1.2 WAR Milone 0.1 WAR Obviously bWAR and fWAR are different (and in some cases, substantially so) and WAR has serious problems, esp with defense. But the players they are counting on to start the season weren't negative players as they have been in years past. To get to .500ish the Twins need to add about 10 WAR. They can do that by getting better but also by having fewer really bad players like they have had in previous season (Worley, Parm, Kubel, Colabello, Diamond etc).
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I think they can be a .500ish team. I don't see a lot of really bad players on this team like we have the last few years. There isn't a Parmelee or Collabello getting 300 at-bats or a rotation with Hendriks, Diamond or Worley in it. Hopefully, Mauer can be the player we saw a bit in the second half of last season and Arcia's bat makes another jump. I think Gibson has a big, Tim Hudson-like breakout season for us. I think Vargas fails at DH but Rosario comes up and plugs some holes in LF and Arcia gets more bats at DH (although Molitor ends up platooning him against lefties). I do think Buxton comes up and excites us. I'm mostly worried about Nolasco. I think Hughes, Santana and Gibson will all pitch well enough and if Milone fails, they won't have an issue bringing someone up to replace him. But if Nolasco and his big contract are struggling, how long will the team stick with him? I'm not sure. And I think the bullpen we see at the end of the year - Perkins, Graham, Burdi, maybe Reed, possibly Meyer or May will be a lot better than the one we see in April.
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Twins Say Now Is Not The Time For Trevor May
gunnarthor replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I would argue the opposite. Ryan's keeping a level head and basing his decisions on a bunch of important factors. He saw that Meyer's control is really bad right now. He understood that you use more than 5 starters in a season so who is on your April 5 roster isn't that important. He probably wanted Hicks to win CF but saw that he's still not hitting and decided to go with two guys who will probably hit as well and probably play better defense. -
Well, yeah. Teams tend to do that with top prospects. Cubs traded away Villaneuva, Twins traded away AJ, Rangers eventually traded Kinsler, Nats left room open for Harper, etc. Didn't make a lot of sense to block CF. Robinson is, if you like defensive stats, an exceptional defender and Schafer is pretty good. So they might not have much of a bat in CF but they'll have pretty good defense there.
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Twins Say Now Is Not The Time For Trevor May
gunnarthor replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Did anyone actually see how he's pitching out of the stretch? Same issue as last year or was he better this spring (in SSS)? -
Why? They've lost more games the last three years despite having a much higher payroll. They, like the Twins, have an amazing farm system and that might start to pay dividends for them this year but if you think Hoyer has been doing a good job since he took the job three years ago, I don't see how you can claim that Ryan isn't. Very similar rebuilds with the exception that the Cubs have more payroll to throw at Lester this offseason.
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Since 2001, both teams have had winning records 9x, Twins have made the playoffs 6x, Oakland 7x (although one was a wildcard game), the only time either team advanced in the playoffs was when they beat the other team. The difference between the teams has been pretty slim for 15 years now. It's a bit disingenuous to suggest that Beane is doing well while suggesting Ryan isn't.
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I think a big part of the reason the marlins might be better is that, b/c all those losing seasons allowed them to draft guys like Jose Fernandez in the first place. And 15 game jumps are a lot easier if you lost 100 games. I think it's hard to suggest that Ryan doesn't understand rebuilds - he's done them before.
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It is what it is. Both trades looked good at the time and neither May or Meyer are done by a long shot. The Twins still have 12 years of combined control over them. So, maybe Meyer ends up with Hoey's career and May is the next Liam Hendriks but maybe they are both a lot better. I wanted Meyer to be the #5 guy and have said repeatedly that I think May ends up leading the team in strikeouts. So I am bummed that both are starting in AAA but they'll get their chances.
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I think Dozier is a top 10 second baseman. I hope that Gibson can make the jump this year (although not top 10, of course). He was looking better in ST - apparently throwing 94 and striking out 17 in 19 innings. He could have some Tim Hudson seasons in him. The other guy to look at a big break out year would be Arcia, although defense will probably always keep his WAR low. He might need to be platooned against lefties (maybe Hicks becomes the weakside of a platoon and 5th OFer?) but he hit really well against righties last year and that should get better as he improves.
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Well, I guess that's true but Harrison did a great job improving his plate discipline. His walk rate was 12% and his strike out was only 16%. Walker was 8% and 28%.
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That's not really true though. Of OFers with 400 AB at their position, only 17 out of 34 CFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs. 9 out of 31 LFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs. 7 out of 30 RFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs. And only 29 out of 81 OFers had positive defensive numbers per fangraphs. Part of that is b/c defensive numbers are still pretty rough, year to year (Adam Jones went from constant negative numbers to a positive 9 last year) and part is because measurements are still not that accurate.
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By WAR (take with grain of salt) the Twins had top 10 players at their positions at third base (Plouffe 9th in MLB), Second base (Dozier 5th), Catcher (Suzuki 6th) and Staring Pitcher (Hughes 5th). If you cut the PA down from qualified to 400, Suzuki drops out but Santana jumps in.
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I'd certainly rather have Hunter over Rasmus. Rasmus already burned bridges with both the Cards and Blue Jays, the defensive numbers didn't like him much better either (and, unlike Hunter, there's not as much argument that there is noise in those numbers). He's basically had one good year since 2011 (fWAR numbers by years - .5, .9, 5.0, .8) and a huge headcase.
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So, first, I don't think it's quite as big as republicans think but it really does bother me that Clinton used a personal server while sec of state. Her arguments for why is was OIK was taken apart pretty well by Dan Metcalfe a couple weeks ago and today CNN is reporting that the emails were permanently deleted. So much for transparency in government. I won't vote for any of the GOP candidates but I also will not vote for Hilary. So I really hope the Dems can find someone else to challenge her.
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It's probably worth reminding people not to get too upset about the opening day roster. A lot of things are factored into it, including options and player contracts. The big issue, I think, will be what happens if Nolasco, after 8 starts, is putting up an ERA north of 5 and has had only one quality start while taxing the bullpen. If Milone is doing that, he's easy to replace but Nolasco has a big contract still.
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Ideally, he could pitch very effectively for a month or so out of the pen and build up some trade value - maybe the Mets get desperate - and the Twins don't have to trade him for a bag of balls.
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So the starting five out of ST will be Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson and Milone with Pelfrey, May and Meyer the next three. Last year we went with Nolasco, Correa, Hughes, Pelfrey and Gibson with Johnson, Deduno and Pino the first call ups. 2013 - Worley, Correa, Pelfrey, Hendriks, Hernandez and Diamond, Deduno and Walters the first call ups. 2012 - Pavano, Liriano, Swarzak, Blackburn, Marquis (athough Hendriks made the first start) with Hendriks, Diamond and Walters the first call ups. I like our depth a bit more this year for sure. The starting 5 isn't horrible although Nolasco still scares me. But I trust Hughes and Gibson a lot more than I did a year ago at this time and I like Milone more than Pelfrey.
