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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    Well, I think you're wrong. And since the Twins have a pretty extensive history of moving vets to make room for younger players, I don't think you have a lot to support it. Plouffe is a better third baseman which is why he's there. Not a conspiracy. And guys like Klaw think the Twins are doing the right thing.
  2. gunnarthor
    Sure, you can use the compiler argument but I've never been a fan of that. It took Colon 18 seasons to match Radke's 12 season total. Radke had more 4 WAR seasons than Pettitte and Vasquez, for instance. Radke isn't in the top group but he fits pretty comfortably in with guys like Oswalt and ahead of several of those guys like Colon or Millwood.
  3. gunnarthor
    I think this narrative needs to end. Plouffe is a good defensive third baseman by both the eye test and the metrics. Concerns about Sano have been around for years. It seems much more likely - and in line with the teams history - that they put Sano at a position he's more likely to handle.
  4. gunnarthor
    fip/era alone seems a pretty poor way of judging a pitcher. Radke's career WAR was 10 WAR higher than Reed and Baker's combined. Radke had more 4 WAR seasons than Cliff Lee, had twice as many 4 WAR seasons as Andy Peditte and had as many 6 WAR seasons as John Lackey and Josh Beckett combined. Radke finished top 10 in pWAR 6x - the same number of times as Glavine and King Felix. Radke was massively underrated b/c his best seasons happened to be on a really crappy team during an insanely high offensive era and because he wasn't a strike out pitcher. But he was a great pitcher. Kyle Gibson's 2015 would slot in as Radke's 8th best season.
  5. gunnarthor
    Beats me. They'll have some internal candidates who may or may not be ready who could push Escobar off of short to third. Maybe they sign a stop gap FA or Plouffe accepts a 1 year qualifying offer. But I don't think it'll be Sano.
  6. gunnarthor
    My thought going into the offseason was that the Twins were going to look at Sano at third in winter ball and make their decision based on that. I think they've made up their mind that he's not a third baseman. Not now, not ever. So when Plouffe is gone, Sano won't be replacing him. Eventually, he probably moves to firstbase. But he can handle RF for a few seasons.
  7. gunnarthor
    Yep. They'll be fine.
  8. gunnarthor
    Maybe, but that would still give us two months of Sano + meh and we still don't know how Kepler will work out. The Twins should be a playoff team this year so it doesn't really make sense to jettison a known quality like Plouffe. Esp since we don't know how well Sano will play third.
  9. gunnarthor
    If Gibson's more comfortable with his sinker, throw the sinker. He's a good pitcher. Brad Radke wasn't a bad pitcher b/c he had low strike out totals. He was still a great pitcher. A second concern, don't the Twins limit the amount of sliders their pitchers can throw?
  10. gunnarthor
    Thanks for the link. BP was usually the high man on the Twins when Jason Parks (IIRC) was their main guy but he got hired by the Cubs (IIRC). Players on it last year but not this year are #12 Sano (graduated), #14 Meyer, #28 Stewart, #91 Thorpe, #99 Burdi. Thorpe was injured, obviously. The other had disappointing seasons. I agree that I thought Jay would be on the list. They also don't list Park but I'm not sure if they list Korean players or not.
  11. gunnarthor
    I don't think any of those things are actually true. I'm sure there are instances of all of them but generally it's more a false narrative than anything else. Heck, the Twins used to get ripped because they wouldn't keep veterans around. And while they have resigned guys like Doumit, it's not clear there were obviously better options available.
  12. gunnarthor
    Yes, Plouffe isn't blocking Sano's bat. The Twins get to have both now. That's a good thing.
  13. gunnarthor
    I don't see the payroll as any major problem for the rebuild. They've brought up a ton of young guys since Ryan came back, some are part of the team, some aren't, but you don't really see anyone of consequence being blocked. Having Plouffe on the team is a good thing as it's usually a bit hard to replace 3 WAR players.
  14. gunnarthor
    My take on the Twins not signing anyone is that the payroll is pretty close to tapped out, despite what the Pohlad's may claim.
  15. gunnarthor
    MLB has asked the US anti-doping agency to help its investigation into allegations made by Al-Jazeera about PED use by certain players. The NFL did not ask the agency for help. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14652385/mlb-asks-us-anti-doping-agency-help-investigate-al-jazeera-claims "The partnership offers obvious benefits for both MLB and USADA. MLB gets USADA's institutional knowledge of the doping world, along with the quasi-governmental agency's extensive contacts with law enforcement. USADA gets to participate in an investigation that involves the nation's most powerful sports leagues, neither of which is under its jurisdiction. Both bodies will be watching to see how aggressively the NFL pursues its investigation, however. While MLB gained a reputation as a zealous pursuer of PED users through the Biogenesis saga, the NFL has been widely criticized in anti-doping circles as not doing enough to fight the issue." Zimmerman and Howard filed defamation lawsuits against Al-Jazeera for the reports in their story. Teagarden, who admitted to using PEDs while (unknowingly) on camera did not.
  16. gunnarthor
    Nice article. I admit, I don't care that much about strike outs but if you take out April, I think he was pretty close to league average. It seems like he got a ton of ground outs with two strikes but I don't know how to compare that to the rest of the league. But my guess is that he used his sinker in two-strike counts a lot more than his slider.
  17. gunnarthor
    The reason it comes up is because he lost a foot race to first base against CC Sabathia. It was brutal.
  18. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I'd say mid-market. It's stupid to expect them to compete financially with the Dodgers or Yankees but I'm not sure if market-size is as important now as the TV contracts.
  19. gunnarthor
    Interesting post. Another way of looking at it is that the Twins amassed about 28 WAR last year. So you want to improve by about 10 WAR over last year. You can do that in a couple ways - play better players or don't play bad players. The most immediate thing that jumps out is how bad Danny Santana was last year (-2.2 WAR). So having Escobar put up a 2 WAR season could be a 4 WAR swing. The other big holes were Nolasco (-0.8) and Hunter (-0.8 although b-r and fwar disagree here). But the Twins should have upgrades over both. I agree that the team's fortunes will depend mostly on how the younger players perform.
  20. gunnarthor
    Well, hopefully, he has a bounce back season. He's a great enough hitter that one last great season isn't unrealistic - look at guys like Torre or Simmons who had big seasons later in their careers. Hopefully Mauer can be a top 10 OBP guy again this year.
  21. gunnarthor
    I'm pretty much ready to write them off. Their pitching was horrible last year and Zimmerman is a pretty overrated NL pitcher. Upton is a good slugger but he isn't enough. I think they'll finish last in the Central again.
  22. gunnarthor
    Yeah, obviously as many different plans is better. I have a small 401k right now with a full match from my employer. My wife will get a state pension. We have some IRAs as well. We also set up some 529 plans for our kids college funds which will (hopefully) pay a large portion of that down the road. We got lucky and paid off our mortgage early so we're managing to put away a pretty good amount each month. If not for those damn school loans (at 7.5% interest) ...
  23. gunnarthor
    Sadly, I'm a nonprofit attorney. A few years ago Congress passed a loan forgiveness program that would forgive your loans after you've worked at a nonprofit for 10 years and were paying off the debt while working. Last summer I learned that I was paying it off but under the wrong plan so all my years didn't qualify. (That was a really bad day). I had actually been paying MORE than I would have under the qualifying plan but it didn't matter. So my wife and I started planning how we'd pay off this 100k and decided to make a big payment out of our savings in March 2016 (after we had owned a certain stock for a year to get lower taxes). And now the our portfolio is tanking just as we're getting ready to actually use it. As I said, 'ow'. But I agree it is actually a good time to buy low on some things. Oil will eventually go back up. And some of the financial giants are a good price, too.** **that is not financial advice, that is an opinion. I repeat, that is NOT financial advice.
  24. gunnarthor
    Ouch. Lots of pain. Our portfolio has lost about 17% of its value in the last month or so. That really sucks.
  25. gunnarthor
    Maybe. But I think had he retired earlier so his name was on the ballot before 1989 he would have gotten in. He was constantly around 20-25% on the ballot during the 90s and when he first came up he was on some absolutely loaded ballots so he never really got a push. Bench and Yaz his first year, followed by Morgan and Palmer in 1990, then Carew, Jenkins and Perry in 91. In 92, Seaver gets in with Rollie Fingers. Six of those were first ballot no-doubt about it HOFers. And Fingers, Jenkins and Perry were all probably better than him. But if he had gotten on the ballot in 1984 or so, it's a bit easier. The first year was Brooks Robinson but the next year Luis Aparicio (6th ballot), Killer (4th), Drysdale (10th) get in. The next year is Lou Brock (1st ballot) and Hoyt Willhem (8th). 1986 was McCovey alone. 87 was Billy Williams (6th) and Catfish Hunter (3rd). Against that group, I think Kaat would have had a lot more support and he was arguably a better pitcher than Willhelm, Hunter and Drysdale.
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