gunnarthor

They'll spend their pool amount - as always - but I doubt they go over. They've alternated over the last few years with quantity v. quality hunting. Sounds like this year they'll go big after a select few instead of passing it out to a bunch of different kids.

Well, yeah. Depends on how old you are. I'm in my early 40s so the short term ebb and flow of the market isn't too scary for me - but I also said that in 08 when we held a lot of Wachovia stock (remember them?) and citibank. Uff-da. So we're watching a bit more closely this time but generally I don't worry about timing the market so much as having a smart(ish) portfolio, meaning buying boring index funds when appropriate.

I'm not sure it's fair to blame the FO for the Pohlad family NOT spending money. Until the family shows a real wiliness to spend above pre-determined limits, I don't think you can blame the FO. Add in the personal friendship they have with Selig - who really didn't want teams to go over - and their resistance to increasing market value for players and it seems like fans will have to wait for new ownership before that sort of thing happens.

Agree on Molitor and May - but the FO seems to have put its foot down on this. I'm more worried about the rope Molitor gives him once the season starts. Remember how quickly he'd pull Meyer and Berrios early last season (while letting Milone pitch out of stuff)? Hopefully, May starts hot and we don't have to worry about this but I'm pretty concerned about Molitor affecting this team. But the FO also put Pickler in the dugout for a purpose and this might be the reason.

But it doesn't really matter what other teams do. If, this season, a few of these things happen - not all - the Twins ranking skyrockets. Jay shows he can start. Stewart's krate/mechanics improve, Romero continues to break out at AA, Thorpe and Burdi get back on track after their injuries. And/or some of the 2016 draft class emerge. Frankly, none of those things are impossible and some, I think, are quite likely. Ignoring rankings, the Twins AA rotation is apparently going to be Jay, Stewart, Gonsalves and Romero. That should be really exciting to follow. They all have flaws but all four have also been on top 100 lists this offseason.

Actually, if Gordon turns out to be a league average shortstop, he's a great #5 overall pick. The draft is really hard. I wish he was the next Lindor but being a tier below that - and scouts seem pretty high on his bat - isn't a botched pick.

Again, I'm surprised Hughes was set this early but 1) he has been an effective ML pitcher before 2) the new FO seems willing to give him a shot and 3) he was injured last year. I personally think the injury isn't going to get better but giving him 5-6 starts isn't horrible, esp since Berrios isn't going to be around much. The starting five in April isn't as important as the starting five we have for most of the year.

Romero and Gonsalves simply aren't ready to pitch at the ML level yet. It's not that they're blocked, it's that they aren't ready. (You might also need to temper your enthusiasm for Gonsalves). If you think Santiago and Gibson aren't worth starting now, why do you think rival GMs would? It seems to me that you are trying to have a rotation that perfectly matches with the hitters and grows with them. That never happens. When Buxton and Sano win their first world series, they'll have a fairly random group of starting pitchers and maybe only two will be in the rotation when Buxton and Sano win their second world series for us. Having a several year run of the same group of pitchers is pretty rare but I do agree that the Twins should find some pitchers who can be ML quality pitchers with us for a few years and not more Pat Dean types.

I've mentioned this before but this really depends on how you look at Tyler Jay. The 2012 draft was a big success from a prospect standpoint and it's given us five MLers (and possibly one more if Melotakis makes it) and two big time prospects. And the 2016 draft, where we picked in the middle of the first round and picked five 17 year olds is too recent to have a real impact. So basically it's 2013-2015 that's causing the fretting. The 2013 draft is essentially down to Stewart, Gonsalves and Garver (unless you're a huge Granite or Slegers fan). We don't know how that will play out but if you want to knock the Twins for Stewart not being the next Roger Clemens you should at least acknowledge that 1) that's why HS pitchers are risky as **** and 2) getting a top 100 prospect out of a fourth round pick ain't bad. Regardless of how you feel Stewart's strike out numbers are, having two 21 year old pitchers in AA and pitching well there is pretty good. I think the 2013 draft strategy (taking high upside HS arms and "safe" college arms) was the Twins smartest draft. In 2014, the Twins took Gordon and Burdi, two pretty good picks at the time although Burdi has been hurt, reminding us all that pitchers get hurt. After that they took a crap ton of relievers. Gordon's a good prospect (and I'm higher on him than most). And if Gordon turns into a starting ML shortstop and Burdi becomes a strong closer, it's a good draft, despite all the other relievers. But 2015 is the one that's really contentious. Because we signed Ervin Santana, we didn't have a second round pick and our next pick after that didn't sign. So we only had our #6 pick and then third round pick Blankenhorn. If you think Jay can start, the system looks better. If you think he's a relief pitcher, than less so. If you're complaining about the international signings, it's worth remembering that it takes longer to figure those out but the Twins signed Amaurys Minier, #4 on mlb.com's 2012 list, Lewin Diaz (#10, 2013), Ynoa (#14, 2014) and Wander Javier (#12, 2015). And they also signed a bunch of lesser guys in that time frame as well. It's just too early to judge most of those (although Minier ain't looking good). So that's probably a long way of saying this is just a snapshot in time. In a few months our system will look a lot better and it might not be just because we added a #1 pick. There are some very high upside players with a lot to prove and the players currently in the system could turn the system into a top 10 one if they make the jumps we hope/expect.

That's not really what they did though. Only Gibson and Santana were in our top 6 for games started last year. The Twins have removed Duffey (26 starts), Nolasco (21), Berrios (14) and Milone (12) from the opening day rotation (assuming Berrios starts in AAA). Santiago and Hughes combined for 22 starts and May had none.

I'm not sure how starting Gibson goes against your proposal. Who do you think should be starting on opening day? My guess is that at the end of the year, the five starters with the most IP at the ML will be Santana, Gibson, Berrios, May and Santiago.

The first 10 rounds are part of the draft pool so if you don't sign that pick, you lose that money, so no one wants to punt those picks. After the 10th round, teams will occasionally nab a guy - usually a high upside HS player - who they would like to sign but know they probably won't. After the 10th round, the team can offer 100k without penalty, plus any money they have saved from the draft pool. So a team might draft 4 guys in rounds 11-25 that they want to sign, knowing that one of them will probably take $350,000 but not sure which one. The other three, in this example, wouldn't sign. There is nothing good about not signing a guy in the first 10 rounds but occasionally the team will draft him and then detect an injury - this most famously happened with Astros and Brady Aiken but cost the Twins a pick a few years ago in the third round when they drafted Kyle Cody (IIRC) and then found a problem with the arm. If the two sides don't come to an agreement, they lose the player and the money. For the Astros that meant they also lost a few extra potential signees and the Twins were rumored to have lost out on a later round player as well.

I'm honestly not sure what you're trying to say. Gibson is easily one of the Twins five best pitchers going forward. Right now the pitching depth (in order) looks to be Santana, Gibson, Santiago, Hughes, May. Behind those five are Mejia, Berrios and Duffey. After that, it's filler until the AA kids knock on the door. Berrios has the highest ceiling but hasn't pitched well and starting him at AAA isn't a huge issue, esp since he'll miss much of ST with the WBC. Mejia and Duffey are guys who, if it works out, will be no better than Gibson. And Gibson should be ahead of Santiago and Hughes on any list. So I'm really not sure what you're suggesting other than you want different pitchers. Which is fine but not overly helpful.

He had a crappy 10 start rookie season and followed that with a 2 and 3 WAR season. Last year sucked. If you think pitch framing is real, than Castro should help. But Gibson is one of the pitching options the Twins need to know about.

I do hope he figures it out. I was really excited about him and I wonder how much that shoulder injury affected him. He always walked a fine line on control but his stuff was pretty awesome. Wish Molly had given him more of a shot last year.

I think there needs to be some calming down a bit here. Gibson should be a starter. He's still young and cost controlled. He was a big investment by the Twins. And he's had some good solid seasons. He's not an ace but he can be a good pitcher on a good team. Talk about cutting him is silly.

Yeah but he was put in the pen late last year. I figured he'd have to show something to get back out. (And maybe he has). But I was hoping the team would wait. That said, if he's struggling at the end of March, I'm not convinced his place in the rotation is set.

Nice article.

I'm a bit surprised that they are set on Hughes but the other three were pretty clear. I think May gets the fifth spot (FO over rules Molitor on that) and Berrios starts the year at AAA along with Duffey.

"“They’re being a little more hands-on with me on things that are injury preventive,” Meyer told me when I asked what’s different this year. “We’re changing some things, trying to free up stress in my shoulder. We’re trying to get my delivery timed up the right way. Ultimately, it’s just a sped up delivery from what I had before.” According to Scott Radinsky, there’s more to it than tempo. “He had a slight pause in his delivery,” explained the Angels bullpen coach. “Now he’s working on a more fluid, continuous, motion, with better separation and balance. That is ultimately going to give him more behind the pitch, and it will take some of the stress off his arm.”" http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-harkey-jenkins-intangibles-meyer-more/ Meyer injured his shoulder but didn't get surgery at the end of the 2014 season and hasn't really been the same since. It'll be interesting to see if the Angels can modify his delivery to get him back on track.

Most of the prospect sites have his fastball as a 60 pitch, which is plus. It's not his out pitch - that's his slider - but it's still real. Even if he goes down to 55, he apparently has enough deception to make it play up. He's not a perfect prospect of course but he would be our #1 prospect and probably a top 20 guy upon draft day. Greene has a bit higher upside but a lot more risk.

I think Florida has a fairly decent reputation as far as that goes.

Yeah, I don't think he has the ceiling of Greene but the combination of risk, stuff and how long it'll take him to be reach the majors probably make him #1.

Nice write up on Faedo at minorleagueball http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/4/14813978/2017-mlb-draft-profile-alex-faedo-rhp-florida-gators Unless he stumbles big - or the Twins have an aversion to pitchers throwing a slider - I think he's our pick.

Bukauskas is a pretty exciting guy but other places have noted some concern with his effort/delivery. With 35 and 37, it's also possible (likely?) that a pitcher slotted for the top 15 gets injured (like Giolito or Aiken) or has a crap season (Alec Hanson) and the Twins might be able to take a gamble that way, as well.