gunnarthor
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Everything posted by gunnarthor
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Is the knock on Mauer really unfair? If I'm looking at his spray chart correctly - and I could very well not being doing that - it looks like his hits go to LF and his outs go to the second baseman. http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C&type=battedball I mean, he certainly had some hits up the middle but it does seem like he either rolls it toward the second baseman - occasionally getting a hit - or it's a line drive the other way.
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I think some of the criticisms are legit - esp on the pitching staff. I'm more optimistic on Rosario and Kepler than the scout but I'm a blind homer. I do think both of them can be 3+ WAR players in the corners, which is plenty fine. Buxton will be a stud. I am concerned with Sano at third but we gotta go with it. But I think the point about pitchers failing to have command is probably true. Berrios obviously suffered from it. I think Gibson and Santana will be ML quality starters this year. But Santiago, Hughes, Berrios, Duffey and Mejia are all question marks. I want them to work out but it could be a rough year if they aren't able to control their fastballs.
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There were some reports that Slowey was an absolute **** that were more or less confirmed by fan accounts. And Blackburn was the better pitcher.
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Doesn't seem like anyone is really pushing Greene for that #1 pick.
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SI had some scout takes on the Twins. It's not pretty. "There's a reason all these guys had 5 ERAs last year. The Twins used to have success developing guys who didn't throw hard but could command the fastball. Now they don't throw hard and they have no command.... Ervin Santana's their ace, but he's actually a three.... José Berrios still hasn't turned the corner. I'm unimpressed by his ability to command the fastball.... Glen Perkins hasn't pitched much this spring. If he can't close for them, they're in big trouble. Well, they're in big trouble anyway.... They gave Jason Castro a lot of money to be their front-line guy. They had a good defensive catcher in Kurt Suzuki and let him walk. I would rather have Suzuki than Castro.... Joe Mauer's health is in question, like always. He's an opposite-field hitter now. If there's a man on third, he will get him home, period.... Brian Dozier is a dead high-ball hitter, but even if he hits 30 home runs, they could lose 100 games. They should have moved him.... Minnesota has brought a lot of guys up before they're ready. Byron Buxton is still a dead pull hitter. With his speed, he should be going the other way, he should bunt, and he doesn't.... Miguel Sano can swing the bat, but he's not very good at third. You hope he knocks in more than he lets in.... . They keep touting their outfield—Eddie Rosario, Buxton, Max Kepler. They all have good arms, but in the major leagues your corner outfielders have to be offensive players.... This team has a chance to be the worst in the league." http://www.si.com/mlb/2017/03/28/scouts-takes-season-preview
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Lindbergh: Buxton a Breakout Candidate
gunnarthor replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Well, if I'm looking at his ST stats correctly, Buxton has 10 hits and 8 of them are extra bases and a 7% walk rate and 17% K rate. So that seems promising in very SSS. -
I did, actually. Bought in the low 40s. Been fun to watch.
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IIRC, the Johnson draft was a one person draft and the Twins had the second pick. SD took Adrian Gonzalez #1. There was no consensus after Gonzalez but Johnson was in the mix. He apparently was a bit of a head case but he was pretty clearly rushed to the majors as well.
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Law's consistent with that short pitcher plane thing
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Is this racism or culture clash in baseball?
gunnarthor replied to TheLeviathan's topic in The Sports Bar
Not sure if this was posted yet but from Klaw's chat: Exexposfan: Yesterday you said you knew codeified racism from working in baseball for many years from the Kinsler tweet. Assuming that comes from witnessing several events can you elaborate on an example? Not that I doubt you but I am curious and want to know such an event that goes on behind closed doors. If you can’t name names that’s fine. Keith Law: I won’t give specifics that might affect people working or playing in the game, but I can point to two examples at a general level. One was the use of the phrase “winning player” or “not a winning player,” applied along almost exact racial lines. I think I only heard a white player called “not a winning player” once, because he was on the DL, as opposed to at least ten players of color called that. The other is one you’ve all heard before: “Athletic.” Black players are presumed to be athletic, and, in my opinion, are unfairly dinged when they aren’t. White players who are athletic are given excessive credit for it, because the presumption is that they’re less so – and that they’re smarter or more instinctive. Sorry I can’t be more specific. -
Is this racism or culture clash in baseball?
gunnarthor replied to TheLeviathan's topic in The Sports Bar
Reading Kinsler's quote in full made me cringe. And when you throw in what we know about society and that the teams doing things the wrong way (in the speaker's mind) are made up pretty much entirely of minorities, I'd say it was a racist comment. -
The cement's dry now though.
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He can make it up yet though. He gets hot and starts smacking around SEC pitching for 8 weeks and he's a late first rounder again.
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JJ Schwartz has fallen off of BA's top 100. "J.J. Schwarz, 1b/dh, Florida (NR): Schwarz ranked No. 15 on our preseason Top 100 College prospects, but that was with the assumption he’d catch some as a junior. Instead, he’s a righthanded-hitting first baseman/DH with a fairly grooved swing who’s not hitting. All of Schwarz’s value is in the bat, and he’s hitting .226 with two homers." Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-top-100-draft-prospects/#MxrhFhcV5YGtrlrZ.99
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From the BA article, we should probably pin this because it'll come up later. "The Top 100 Draft Prospects ranking is fluid and constantly changing throughout the spring. Baseball America aims to capture industry consensus with this list. Roughly three months from the draft, it’s safe to say no consensus has been reached beyond the top two players in the draft class, and there’s a lot to sort out between now and when we expand the list to 200 and eventually the BA500 at the end of May." So, on draft day when the Twins take BA #44 at their 35 pick, it probably wasn't a reach!
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I recognized most of those names but Smith. Apparently he's Virginia's big first baseman. I'm a bit angry and Faedo for not being super awesome. Jeremy, do we have a sense of whether the Twins are looking at McKay as a hitter or as a pitcher?
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Keep in mind that guys like Greene (and Aiken) can get insurance on their arms. It won't pay out 8m but it'll give a lot to offset the possibility that they get hurt before they are drafted again.
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Almost certainly. But I think Hall might arguably have better secondary stuff at this time.
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Honestly, I don't think he could pull that off. Preller would be making a huge enemy of whoever Greene's adviser is and no one in the drafting business would trust Preller again. The long-term mess isn't worth it. Remember a few years ago the Astros tried to screw over Aiken and his adviser nearly got the Astros to forfeit a draft pick and they ended up settling with another draftee (Jacob Nix) for over a million dollars.
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AJ Preller has been suspended twice by baseball for unethical acts.
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Well, we'll see. I do think that if he's running out a 5.00 ERA after ten starts (at the most), we'd see him moved/cut for Mejia. But I don't think we'd see another 20 starts like that like we had with Nolasco last year.
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My guess is is that the Padres are telling Greene that they'll pay him more than the Twins. Twins have more pool money and our 1st round pick is worth about 1m more than San Diego's. But if San Diego tells Greene that they'll pony up 8m for him (1.5 more than their slot amount meaning they'd have to punt some later picks) the Twins might pass. And if the Twins want to save money with their #1 pick to give a little more at 35/37, Greene might not be on discount.
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True. But a HS RH pitcher is also pretty risky, especially if you're turning down a Bryant-type bat. Greene's probably better than all of these guys but all of these HS arms were in the debate about 1/1 the last few years - Aiken, Tate, Groome, Pint, Kolek, Stewart.
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If McKay can continue to hit into Bryant territory but is locked in as a future 1B only type ... man, that'd be a tough choice.
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Sure but he's right that the positive regression of guys like Gibson and Santiago should outweigh the negative regression Santana will have. Nolasco, Meyer, Dean, Milone and Albers combined for 45 starts last year. Duffey had another 26. That's a lot of new starts to be made by new pitchers this year.
