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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/california/president http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/wyoming You're partly right - 14m is about right but I had the wrong number for Wyoming's turnout, it was 250k or so. Not sure how I ****ed that up so much.
  2. gunnarthor
    Big states gain far more in the EC than small states. 14m people voted in CA for 55 EV. Less than 900k voted for 3 EV in Wyoming. That means that California voters actually had better voting power (250k voters per EV v. nearly 300k). But the big states huge payoff - in both the EC and the House - means they have far more impact on the nation than Wyoming. It's why Democrats have been able to have majorities in the House and control the White House while losing the popular vote in most states. Those advantages were nullified slightly by adding the Senate so large states wouldn't dominate smaller states. Now, gerrymandering is a different problem ....
  3. gunnarthor
    I think that would be a pretty bad idea but one that will never happen, anyway. Here's an article by Judge Posner on the value of the electoral college. Posner is generally considered the most respected judge not on the Supreme Court. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/view_from_chicago/2012/11/defending_the_electoral_college.html
  4. gunnarthor
    Unless you want to divide up both houses of congress and the White House into one big pie, you're always going to have some group with more voting power than other groups. That's what happens in our form of government. Sometimes it helps one party, sometimes it helps the other.
  5. gunnarthor
    This is overstated. If you look at the smallest states (3 or 4 EV), Clinton actually won more states (7-6) and EV (24-20). I think the article was a bit lacking in analysis. Currently, the GOP has an edge because they are viewed as the better answer in many states. Democrats have lost support in rural areas but that wasn't always the case. The MN DFL used to be pretty strong in rural areas, for instance. The party has abandoned those voters more than the GOP has won them. So these things can be pretty cyclical. If 1992 Bill Clinton had run in 2016, I think he would have had a sweeping victory.
  6. gunnarthor
    Agreed. Fun episode but the show is coming a bit off the tracks if you pay too much attention. Enjoyed Bran and Littlefinger's scene, a lot.
  7. gunnarthor
    Good luck to both of them
  8. gunnarthor
    Nice outing for Thorpe. It'll be interesting to read the scouting reports on him this offseason. He was a top 100 prospect years ago for BP - I believe the guy who made the list is now with the Cubs FO.
  9. gunnarthor
    Well, if this is a wishing thread, I wish that Yvonne Strahovski would marry me (my wife is cool with it) and I wish that the Twins would win the world series. In that order. I'd also like to see Romero get called up to the pen and see Gonsalves make some ML starts in September.
  10. gunnarthor
    They aren't prospects but both Park and Vargas have plus power. In the low minors we have a few guys who could be power bats eventually - Kiriloff, Diaz, Baddoo, Rooker
  11. gunnarthor
    That's true. And insurance is probably why the Twins were allowed to pay Garcia's salary. Perkins is gone next year (700k buyout). Hughes is still under contract. Not sure how much insurance would cover, although it won't be 100%. Basically, the Twins need the young players to start playing better but fixing the pitching staff is going to be really hard.
  12. gunnarthor
    It's 108m. That's pretty much the highest it's ever been. 2011 it was 113m and many here think Smith was fired in part because he wanted to keep or increase that payroll. I mean, maybe the Twins get to 113 or so but I don't think we should expect that. The Pohlad family isn't going to go much higher than they have in the past.
  13. gunnarthor
    NL pitchers
  14. gunnarthor
    Twins have 67m already set in payroll for next year, for 6 players. And they are paying 4m for Nolasco and Park regardless. And they have a lot of arbitration raises to Gibson, Escobar, Pressley, Giminez, Recker, May, Grossman, Adrianza. Giminez could be released but I think they'd keep everyone else. As bad as Gibson is, he's a warm body and they need pitchers. Pressly? Maybe he goes but he'd probably stay. Those 7 (not counting Giminez) would probably make 13-14m? That means the other 12 players on the 25 man roster would make league minimum (6m). That would leave the FO with about 15-20m to work with in FA if they keep payroll around this years total. What does that get us? We probably will add a 12m AAV pitcher type. And a few more Belisle and Breslow relievers. It doesn't really give us a lot of room.
  15. gunnarthor
    it was sarcasm.
  16. gunnarthor
    Yeah he makes sense but remember that Levine is our GM so maybe he takes another run at Napoli.
  17. gunnarthor
    Part of the problem is Kepler and Buxton haven't really turned into dangerous hitters yet. I like both of them a lot but Kepler only has a 96 OPS+. For a corner OF, that's pretty bad. Buxton's struggles have been talked about enough. I would like to see the Twins get a big bat in FA although I don't think the FO automatically will. But bats like Carlos Santana, JD Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Logan Morrison (finally having his big year) would be available and perhaps affordable.
  18. gunnarthor
    If Gray got 1 top 100 prospect, Santana's value was pretty low. Dozier was only worth De Leon. It's ok to keep those guys instead of selling for 50 cents on the dollar.
  19. gunnarthor
    I'd like Garver and Romero to get called up.
  20. gunnarthor
    Which pending free agents do you think Ryan let walk?
  21. gunnarthor
    Yeah, that's fair but still seems pretty light for the A's
  22. gunnarthor
    I do think these moves are decent but I think this offseason will be a much bigger test for Levine.
  23. gunnarthor
    Holy crap. So the Twins probably could have topped the Gray deal with Gonsalves, Jay, Blankenhorn (or comparable). And they could have gotten Darvish with Romero, Thorpe and Baddoo?
  24. gunnarthor
    I don't disagree. I would say that the bullpen wasn't the only problem. Obviously, the starters are a mixed bag but our offense has been struggling a bit and Kintzler isn't irreplaceable. So, really our choices were maybe trading off Ynoa, Blankenhorn, Curtiss, Garver (some guys in our 10-20) for some modest bullpen help. Maybe that works. Or, we get a little for later and open up some 40 man spots and bring up Romero and Curtiss to the pen, now, and aim for next year.
  25. gunnarthor
    It's a solid trade. If it all works out, Watson could be a back end starter under team control for six years. It's more likely that he's a LH reliever but he has years to work this out. Realistically, the most likely scenario is that he washes out before AAA but he's another good lotto ticket. Most will fail but some will make it.
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