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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    All three of those guys were a lot better at the end than you remember. Tex gave them a 144 OPS+, 4 WAR season for them in his second to last year. I don't see how anyone can look at the last decade of Yankees baseball and not think they underachieved. He had the #1 or #2 payroll every year. Never had a payroll less than 216m(!) and won one world series.
  2. gunnarthor
    I always thought he was a pretty bad manager considering what he was given. And it's not like Boston fired their manager or NYY fired Girardi based on just one year. Both managers were given plum jobs with all the resources imaginable and underperformed repeatedly for years. I don't like Molitor and I think we should have moved on but the situation here is not remotely comparable to the situations in NY and Boston and disingenuous to suggest Bos/NY are moving on when they don't win a WS. Molitor was kept b/c his team overperformed by pretty much every possible measure. (Again, I want him gone). Girardi was fired because he was given over a billion dollars in payroll over the years and failed to win.
  3. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I don't even think it's close. Take Hill out of Dodger stadium and his 89mph avg fastball, his flyball tendencies, his HR tendenices and it's not even a debate. You have to really love fip to think Hill is better.
  4. gunnarthor
    I disagree. You just have to accept that there will be misses. If Gonsalves went in the first round and Stewart went in the fourth, would that change how you view that draft? Pitchers are a quantity game. Stewart was definitely the right pick. I see arguments against the Jay pick but still understand it.
  5. gunnarthor
    I think this is the big thing for me. The Twins really have done a nice job of getting depth in our system and the depth is both in pitching and hitting. Without getting into blaming/crediting whomever, we've seen a lot of different types of guys get mentioned. Big international signings (Javier), small international signings (Thorpe), top of the draft guys (Lewis), late round picks (Wade), overslot deals (Enlow), guys from other systems (Littell), injury comebacks (Graterol). I don't think we're as top heavy as we were a few years ago when Buxton, Sano and Berrios dominated lists but we might have more depth from even that time (when our second top 10 was better than the Angels top 10).
  6. gunnarthor
    Actually, as you know, if he's a viable reliever, he'll still be viable for his draft spot. Baseball drafts are really, really hard.
  7. gunnarthor
    That's a hell of a qualifier. Over the past two years, Hill has put up a 149 ERA+ in 246 innings while pitching in the NL in an extremely good pitching ball park. He's amassed 3.5 WAR. Santana has pitched in a hitters park in the AL the last two years and put up 8.4 WAR while throwing 393 innings with a 131 ERA+. I can't see how anyone can make a claim that Hill is an ace but Santana is not. And Hill got rocked in his first start this post-season too. Rate stats are nice but you're taking them a bit too far.
  8. gunnarthor
    Are we really convinced on Lamet? He wasn't exactly a highly thought of prospect. He pitched in one of the best pitcher's parks in the country. In 21 starts, he amassed less than 0.5 bWAR and 1.3 fWAR. His home/away splits weren't quite as big as Rich Hill but they were big. Yes, he struck out a lot of guys but he pitched in the NL. He had a low babip (that gets mentioned sometimes when we talk about Twins pitchers) and is a big flyball pitcher and gave up HR's at a worse pace than even Bartolo Colon. We really think this guy is worth two top 100 prospects?
  9. gunnarthor
    Would you rather have had him pitch or Hildenberger and Busentiz? And, frankly, our bullpen was fine at the end of the season and did ok against NY. Santana and Berrios gave up all but one run.
  10. gunnarthor
    In what world is Rich Hill an ace and Ervin Santana is not?
  11. gunnarthor
    Sure they do. Liriano was a C prospect that the Twins held out for in the AJ trade. https://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/2/5/1975820/career-profile-francisco-liriano
  12. gunnarthor
    Lock up the bats, go year to year with the arms. I wouldn't worry about a longterm thing for Berrios until he's much closer to free agency due to the injury risk for pitchers. (Unless he gives us a crazy good deal, of course).
  13. gunnarthor
    Eh, sure. The Twins were a playoff team this year, they could be a whole lot more next year. We'll have a better idea in a few months.
  14. gunnarthor
    Yep. The bigger problem is that the people responsible have changed over certain periods. Ryan/Radcliff from 94-07, Smith/Johnson 08-11, Ryan/Johnson 12-16, Levine/Sean Johnson 17- ? Looking back at those drafts, I was surprised on how few starting pitchers the Twins actually took. They drafted only 14 from 94-07 in the first two rounds or so. 4 became solid starters, 3 became good relievers, and the other 7 more or less busted with an occasional cup of coffee. They took 8 in the first two rounds of the 08-11 drafts (although I'm not 100% certain if those pitchers were drafted were college relief arms or college starters projected to be ML relievers or a mix).
  15. gunnarthor
    I love Ichiro but if the Twins decide to platoon Kepler (and I have no strong opinion either way) they should get a RH masher who can be put in the 5 spot in the line up and just punish lefties.
  16. gunnarthor
    Twins have a long history of giving over the closing job to guys who hadn't done it before - Everyday Eddie, Nathan, Perkins, Kintzler, Belisle. I imagine they will continue that trend.
  17. gunnarthor
    The Twins can't afford a contract like Scherzer's or Lester's or Verlander's at all. It wasn't about the prospects, it was cost. The Pohlads aren't going to do this. We have 20+ years of history here. The Twins won't sign these guys. Comparing the Twins to the Dodgers, who were able to keep their multiple Cy Young winner while the Twins had to trade theirs away, isn't helpful. The Cubs are paying Arrieta 15.5m, Lackey 16m and Lester 25m this year. The Yankees have two FA starters making 22m or more, this year. The Astros could take on Verlander's salary. Falvey was hired b/c ownership thinks he can create a cheap competitive team. Payroll will remain in the bottom third of the league. That means we're probably looking at 110m payroll. If we stretch it, it might get to 120 but I'd bet heavily against that. Ownership is going to use the old excuses about not signing longterm contracts to make sure they have money available for raises for our core. And then they'll let that core leave when the market resets next offseason.
  18. gunnarthor
    The Twins have Berrios who was pretty well regarded prospect and had a pretty nice season. They also have four starting pitchers in AA or above that have been top 100 guys on some list - Thorpe, Gonsalves, Romero and Stewart. Only Thorpe wasn't on a top 100 list last year although Stewart probably isn't this year. They could combine a few of those with Gordon to make a solid trade. They could see how they develop and mix them in next year. Basically, the Twins have options if they want. What they don't have the ability to do is sign Darvish. But you're main problem is suggesting that the Twins follow a blueprint of the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros or Nats. Those teams are spending way, way more than the Twins.
  19. gunnarthor
    If the Twins had more reliable back end of the rotation, they might not have been in the wild card game. They had a solid front of the rotation in Santana and Berrios. By both bWAR and fWAR, Ervin Santana would have been the second best pitcher on the Yankees. So we had a shot. They just need a better staff for a season and not a one game playoff. That can be done several ways. It's not realistic though to expect the Pohlads to pay for Darvish. You need a different plan.
  20. gunnarthor
    Nice article at TwinkieTown about going after Maddux, the recently fired Nats pitching coach. Myjah notes that Levine worked with him for 7 seasons in Texas. Makes sense. https://www.twinkietown.com/2017/10/20/16510192/mlb-minnesota-twins-should-go-after-mike-maddux-pitching-coach-nationals
  21. gunnarthor
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/tigers-inform-anibal-sanchez-his-option-will-be-declined.html Not even remotely a surprise. Sanchez was brutal last year. He'll probably get a minor league invite somewhere.His agent will play up how he ended the season but he's probably cooked. I'd be willing to give him the minor league invite but nothing more. "While he struggled as both a starter and reliever this season, Sanchez did post very solid K/BB numbers throughout the year — particularly upon returning from a month-long stint in Triple-A. He enjoyed solid eight-start run upon his return from the minors (4.37 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 37-to-10 K/BB ratio in 45 1/3 innings) and finished out the year with 23 innings of 2.70 ERA ball and a 31-to-7 K/BB ratio."
  22. gunnarthor
    These kind of posts don't help. Everyone wants to win and the suggestion is that those who want someone less than Darvish don't.
  23. gunnarthor
    Exactly, and there is nothing wrong with that. These guys are amazing athletes and they think they can do anything. They should be offended if they are told they can't play a position or hit clean-up. How many times to we see a starting pitcher glare at his manager when he's pulled? That pitcher thinks he can get the out and doesn't need the help.
  24. gunnarthor
    Eventually, but he resisted moving out from behind the plate and he resisted being moved out of the three spot in the order. He has a big ego, just like all these guys.
  25. gunnarthor
    Nice write up on Berrios. I think he'll be a similar pitcher next year with a huge jump coming in 2019. But as long as he stays healthy, he'll be no worse than a #3. Really like this guy.
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