gunnarthor

Most ML teams want veterans. For his career, Napoli has killed LH pitching and the one thing the Twins offense could use is a power RH bat. I don't think Napoli is it and I don't think we sign him. But I don't think we should worry before it actually happens.

That is an insane offer. That's a borderline elite prospect, another top 50ish prospect, a quality ML OFer with 4 years of control left and a former top 100 prospect in AA who has rebounded nicely from injuries and could sneak into a few top 100 lists now. That's better than the Chris Sale deal, the Hamels deal, Quintana deal, etc. The Rays would take that in an instant and Falvey would fire Lavine a moment later.

I thought the Pirates had some decent MI prospects. Frazier would seem a better fit, IMHO, for them. Frasier and Adams gives them two ML starters right now in positions of need. Torres is the better prospect but he's recovering from TJ surgery and will miss most of next season anyway. Unless the Pirates have a lower view of Frasier than I do, I'm not sure the Twins could/should get involved. The rumors we were hearing - however accurate they were - Gordon, Jay and Granite is probably about as high as I'd go and I think Frasier/Adams tops that although it might be closer than I first thought.

I don't think the Twins will make any additions to payroll until Darvish is signed, one way or other.

If NY includes Frazier, I don't think we can/should try and beat that offer.

These Archer offers where we give up half our system are not realistic. Look at other trades for starting pitchers and work off of that. Archer is cheap but he was worth 1.2 WAR last year and 1.8 the year before. He had a higher whip than Santana. He's a flyball pitcher who had two seasons where he didn't give up home runs b/c he played in one of the best pitching parks in the game. He's not an ace and you don't give up truly elite prospects for him. Make a reasonable offer and move on if Tampa insists on a Sale-like return, he won't get moved.

I'd vote no. He's going to be expensive. I'm not sure he'll stick at third for the duration of his contract and I don't think Sano will either.

Just a few other pretty solid games Voyages of Marco Polo - I liked this a lot more than I thought I would. You have to go to different cities and meet certain contracts. You only get five turns so it's a fast game (30 mins) but really competitive. Viticulture - wine making game. Funny review of it here. Castles of Burgundy. Really cutthroat game. My wife and I have gotten actively mad at each other over this game and if you have four players, it's just evil.

We bought a small amount of AT&T for our IRAs. They seem like one of the big winners in the ****ty tax plan so ....

I posted this before but here are the starting pitchers the BBWAA has elected since 1990 - Jim Palmer, Fergie Jenkins, Gaylord Perry, Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Phil Niekro, Blyleven, Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Pedro, Big Unit. That's an incredible list of all-time greats. Seaver, Unit, Maddux, Niekro and Blyleven are all top 10 all time in pWAR. Carlton and Pedro each had two of the all-time seasons for pitchers. Ryan owns many records and is probably the most famous pitcher. Perry and Sutton threw over 5000 innings, etc. The BBWAA has been very small hall when it comes to pitchers, demanding innings, hardware and substantial peaks. If these 14 are the standards for being a HOF pitcher - and they shouldn't be - guys like Moose and Schilling are going to wait but eventually get in and guys like Johan Santana and Kevin Brown don't even get considered. Sutton and Niekro had to wait five or six years. Blyleven longer. My guess is that Moose and Schilling will both get in sometime in the next 3 years.

Yeah but he's had a pretty nice career - 10 years, 25 WAR, 103 OPS+, 1400 hits, good on-base skills. Got to play in 4 different post seasons. And 41m and counting in salaries. Not too bad.

Rays are throwing in the towel. They've moved Longoria to SF. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/giants-to-acquire-evan-longoria.html

Yeah, tough ballot. I think he should be in but I'd vote for 10 guys before him.

I mostly agree with this. I think some guys are much better at seeing a player and breaking down what they saw than Klaw. Klaw is a good writer and has multiple sources that he trusts to be accurate. So we've seen Klaw be right about someone like Eddie Rosario before many others. But if Longenhagen and Klaw were sitting at a game and watching Nick Gordon I'd trust Longenhagen's daily write up a lot more than Klaw's write up.

It's groupthink. Someone on mlbtv was pointing out that most of the big money teams think alike and they all believe if you make players wait longer, salaries go down.

Here I am thinking this was going to be a thread of the best Christmas songs ...

On the PED guys, if I had a vote, I'd vote for 10 guys. If there were 14 guys who I thought had reasonable HOF claims I'd vote for the guys who I thought weren't roiding up before I voted for the roiders. I'm positive the voters have already elected some roiders so it's really a question about the handful of guys who were actually linked to PEDS in some way. Most roiders got away without any punishment.

I like that Longenhagen will answer questions about these lower level prospects. Klaw usually only talks about the known ones but Longenhagen seems to be pretty well versed on these guys.

I'd vote for 10 guys just because I like a big hall. In no particular order, I'd vote for Andruw Jones, Vlad, Edgar, Moose, Schilling, Walker, McGriff, Thome, Johan Santana, Chipper.

Didn't the AL Central represent the AL in the World Series 3 out of the last four years? Didn't Cleveland just win 102 games? The AL East hasn't been some superPEDowered division for some time now. Toronto has made the playoffs twice since 1994. The AL East isn't hard on pitchers b/c it has five elite offenses. It's tough on pitchers b/c three of the parks are jokes and overly kind to hitters. Tampa happens to be a pitcher's park which has greatly helped Archer - in 80 home starts, his era is nearly a full run lower than his away era (also in 80 starts). He has an era over 7 in his combined starts at Balt and Fenway, for example. I'm fairly sure that the Archer we've seen for the last four years will be the Archer we get if we trade for him (barring injury of course).

I doubt the new brain trust is going to add a new starting catcher after they made a starting catcher their big priority of last season. That said, I do like him and would be happy if we got him. Considering some of the joke trades the new Miami FO is making, maybe we could get him cheaper than we expect.

Archer has an affordable contract and he's been durable which is great but there's a real difference between how certain stats view him. He hasn't topped 2 bWAR since 2015. To believe he's an ace, you have to firmly believe that fWAR is correct. Obviously, the Rays are going to say he's an ace and demand that kind of return but I think that's a pretty open question. Kepler, straight up, might be more valuable (on a WAR basis only) over the next four years, for example. It might be easier to replace him since he's a corner OFer pitching is always in demand. The Twins should be able to put a good package around Gordon and Gonsalves for a starting pitcher, with a couple throw-ins. I don't think Archer should, at most, cost much more than Hamel's did and he got three top 100 prospects and a couple nice side pieces. Sonny Gray got two top 100 prospects and a nice third piece (power corner OFer). Gray and Archer are both similarly valued by fWAR and bWAR with bWAR liking Gray more and fWAR liking Archer more. Gray is a year younger but Archer has shown to be more durable. Quintana got two top 100 prospects but one was elite and two so-so side prospects. I might do as much as Gordon, Gonsalves and Romero with someone like Wade as my throw in (or equivalent) if I was convinced that fip is more accurate. That gives the Rays 3 top 100 prospects - and four prospects all in AA or above - back. But I wouldn't include anyone on the ML roster. If that's not enough, move on to a different target.

Look at recent trades and figure out who you think Archer is most similar to in both terms of talent and years of control. Then see what the other team gave up. For example, the Phillies traded Cole Hamels (and a cost controlled relief pitcher) who had 4 years + option year left on his contract when Hamels was in his age 31 season. He was still owed 94m plus either another 20m or a 6m buyout, meaning the Rangers were going to commit 100m to Hamels age 31-35 seasons, and possibly more. In return, the Phillies got 6 players back, two top 50ish prospects (Alfaro and Thompson), a top 100ish prospect (Nick Williams), a high floor #4 (Eickhoff) and a relief arm. The sixth player involved was Harrison who was there b/c of his high salary going back to Phillies. Hamels was the better pitcher when he was traded. Six seasons top 10 in WAR while Archer only has one. Innings workhorse, etc. (And for those who consider WAR, keep in mind that Archer posted a 1.2 bWAR last year, although fWAR was much higher. Are we convinced Archer is really an ace?) But Hamels' high salary limited the number of teams that could trade for him. On the other hand, Archer will make significantly less than Hamels and is younger. He'll be paid about 14m the next two seasons and then two seasons more of club control totaling 20m. A team is only forced to pay 15.125m if they let him walk after two seasons. So while Archer isn't as good on the field, the Rays could demand a trade similar or slightly better in a seller's market if they feel he's an ace. A similar trade would maybe be Gordon and Gonsalves (two top 50ish prospects), Romero (top 100ish), Thopre (the high floor guy. Maybe Mejia? Not sure how Thorpe is viewed) and one of our hundred or so relief arms, say, Jay? Maybe that's a bit too much and Jay isn't included or the Rays kick back a C prospect in return? Not sure. But I think the Rays could start any conversation with Gordon and both Gonsalves and Romero. That's a big price especially if you're not convinced that fWAR is accurate.

They have Severino, Grey, Tanaka, Sabathia, and Montgomery for opening day and a couple solid pitching prospects - Adams and Sheffield - likely in AAA at the start of the year. Given the park and the division they play in that's probably enough and better to focus on a killer lineup and strong bullpen.

Judge and/or Stanton will move to 1b/DH for Harper. Their most common first baseman last year were Carter, Headley and Bird, around 40 games each. Their most common DH was Matt Holliday, with 89 starts there. None of that should prevent them from signing Harper. Did you know that Harper is actually younger than Judge? They could have a future with LF/RF/1B/DH held by (in some order) Harper/Stanton/Frazier/Judge if they wanted.