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alarp33

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Everything posted by alarp33

  1. alarp33
    Alex Rodriguez signed for $25m a year as a free agent. Certainly you can see the difference between that, and Trout signing with 4+years to go before Free agency. Bryce Harper appears more than willing to wait for FA, and the speculation is $40/year is on the low end of where his contract will start.
  2. alarp33
    Pitchers could not care less if they give up runs in their first spring training appearance (and neither should we). I have 0 problem with that quote... you can be concerned if its March 30th and he's getting shelled consistently.
  3. alarp33
    Technically his proposal is 7 years $36 million (if option is exercised), where he gets $13 million in his 1st year of FA... so if he does become a good player... I do think its possible he could be looking at something like $46 million for his 3 arb years and year 1 of FA. (Arb 1 $5, Arb 2 $8, Arb 3 $13, FA 1 $20)... If he becomes a superstar, all bets are off the table what that FA year 1 is worth.
  4. alarp33
    I'm not at all saying you can't win with homegrown players... in fact the Astros are exactly how I would have built the Twins if I were in charge starting in 2011... An aggressive rebuild; sell off everything of value, shrewd trades and drafting (Correa underslot, McCullers later) etc. They wouldn't have given up a draft pick to sign another #3-4 starter with no upside. We'll have to see how 2016 plays out. If 88 wins is a real possibility, you can't discount the fact that 70 wins is also a real possibility (Seeing as most projections have them in the mid to upp 70 range). If 88 wins happens, I sure as hell hope an aggressive offseason is planned to take an even bigger step next year. If 70 wins happens, I hope they clean house in the front office, but fear/know they won't.
  5. alarp33
    Agree on Perkins On Buxton - If he is just Vince Coleman at the plate, with his defense he would outperform the 6 years $24 million proposed.... Coleman was worth 12 WAR his 1st 6 years in the Majors. If he's much better than Vince Coleman, which is likely... you would be saving a significant amount of money by extending him now... I still think he would turn down the extension listed above.
  6. alarp33
    The Cubs are running a smart 2016 franchise. The Twins seem to be attempting what worked (debatable) in 2003.
  7. alarp33
    "And that leaves Pelfrey. It’s easy to use hindsight to say that Pelfrey sucked late in the season but at the time the Twins made the change, he was pitching better than May" Pelfrey pitched 35 innings in June, struck out 16, walked 13 and had a 5.35 era... and was a FA after the year they (hopefully) had no intention of bringing back. May in June: 24 innings 24 k's, 6 walks, 3.7 era (includes the 1/3 inning start in milwaukee). May's last start before the Pen was July 1 (6.1 innings, 6 k's, 1 er)
  8. alarp33
    I don't think the Twins are blundering knuckleheads in general, I think they are if you compare them to a team like the Cubs, with Epstein and Hoyer around, maybe the best run team in the league. There is a stark contrast with how they operate, and how the Twins operate is my point. My biggest issue with how the Twins are run, is I don't think they do a good job at all of seeing the big picture. When the 2011 collapse happened, it was fairly easy to see how barren the farm system was... at no point did they ever start a real rebuild. For example, in my opinion they didn't trade Perkins because he was from MN and fans liked him - even though 90 loss teams don't need closers. Suzuki extension, Hughes extension, Nolasco + Santana etc. When they signed Park this Winter, it obviously had a gigantic trickle down effect on the rest of the roster - they seemed totally unprepared for that. I mean Sano didn't even play OF in Winter ball. A very narrow minded approach. And now that they are potentially nearing a contention window... they have sat on their hands and done nothing to try and make a run.
  9. alarp33
    You left out Max Kepler. The Twins would be better with Vielma in the lineup than Kepler? I would argue the Kepler lineup would be better defensively, as you don't have Sano in OF any longer.
  10. alarp33
    No. And if we do, something went very very wrong.
  11. alarp33
    Not only that, trading a young pitching prospect with injury concerns for Anthony Rizzo (when they needed pitching at the ML level)
  12. alarp33
    Ha. So the Rays extended Longoria for 6 whole years because he had a few hits in the 6 days he had spent in the Majors? Ok.
  13. alarp33
    Right. I mentioned FA but obviously I prefer their method of operation overall... including the trades and FA signings. The Twins may have not had a Samardjia to trade, but anyone could've jumped in and gotten the devalued Arrieta from the Orioles for example. Just was pointing out the stark contrast between how a smart team operates, and how the Twins operate.
  14. alarp33
    "Laughable" Evan Longoria was signed for 6 years $17.5 million by the Rays a week into his rookie year. His 35.2 WAR those 6 seasons was worth $235 million to the Rays
  15. alarp33
    Certainly fair, but once Buxton accomplishes something at the ML level those numbers he proposed could very easily be doubled as a starting point. I think Buxton is going to be a star, I wouldn't hesitate to give him that deal today. I would guess he would bet on himself and not sign that.
  16. alarp33
    1- Are you assuming he doesn't end up at 3b? 2- If you believe he will be at least as good of 2b as Dozier, I'm not sure why you would trade him as he's 6 years younger and will be significantly cheaper for awhile. He also fits this lineup better as its presently constructed (say, if they plan on Plouffe being the 3b for the next few years at least). Lots of RH bats 3- It's probably likely Dozier would have more value if you are going to trade him this year.
  17. alarp33
    And as for Dozier's final 3 months? Should we pretend that didn't happen? As for Dozier vs Polanco, I was more so arguing this; "Sell high" should only be referenced if at least one of the following criteria is met: 1. The team has no expectation of winning enough baseball games to matter 2. The team has a viable replacement at the position who can step in and won't sacrifice (multiple) wins in the short-term" Not your argument about the better hitter today. I think Polanco could be a nearly comparable player as soon as mid season, and if you can get a high end bullpen piece and prospect for Dozier, you think long and hard about it (The Twins won't, its not their way... but I would)
  18. alarp33
    Well for one, Polanco is 22. Generally guys gain power as they get bigger and stronger. Will he hit 20+ home runs? Doubtful, but if he hits a bunch of doubles and gets on base at a .250 clip he'll be a pretty damn good hitter. The question isn't, is Polanco a better hitter than Dozier today. It's, is the team better with Polanco + Whatever is acquired in a trade, vs Dozier. That is a decent argument, and after Dozier's 2nd half collapse I think "selling high" is more than fair to discuss. Lots of people on this board have pointed to Escobars numbers in the 2nd half, some in an argument he should be a leadoff option... if we are going to cherry pick those numbers, fair to discuss these as well? July - .206/.282/.433 August - .216/.275/.387 September - .200/.280/.309
  19. alarp33
    This. OPS is a flawed stat because it gives equal weight to OBP and SLG.. OBP is far more important in the scheme of things
  20. alarp33
    The Cubs will have 2 home grown players in their Opening Day lineup, Schwarber and Bryant. You are missing the point, but thanks for your input.
  21. alarp33
    Last year Bryant, Schwarber, Russell all made their Major League debuts - they signed Lester last winter before any of that happened. Soler and Baez had very minimal experience heading into 2015. I'm aware the Cubs talent is a little more high end than the Twins, which is why I wrote that it was earlier. I pointed out an example of a team who went to the NLCS with a bunch of rookies, and is favored to win the World Series with a bunch of 2nd year guys... because they supplemented their weak spots via free agency. Something the Twins refuse to do
  22. alarp33
    Should the Twins sign any of their young guys to the most team-friendly deal in the league? Debating whether Sano would sign for $7 million over 5 years? Is this real?
  23. alarp33
    "An OFer who hits 25 dingers and plays great D" is an odd way to conclude we are better off with Plouffe in the lineup. Seeing as Plouffe; 1) Plays avg D at 3rd (agree it would be better than could be expected of Sano) 2) Doesn't hit 25 home runs (has averaged 18.5 over past 4 years) 3) 18.5 home runs really isn't that big of deal since he loses much of his perceived "power value" because he can't get on base.
  24. alarp33
    Huh? They signed Zobrist, Heyward, Lackey, Fowler and Lester in the past 2 years... to go with the young talent they have. And now they are projected to win the division... you know, kind of my point?
  25. alarp33
    You are free to count it however you would like, the Twins count the posting fee as part of his cost. "For accounting purposes, St. Peter said, the Twins will count the pro-rated portion of the $12.85 million they gave the Nexen Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization to win exclusive bidding rights for Park. That’s an additional $3.2 million over the next four seasons that wouldn’t be counted against the luxury tax but indeed goes toward player costs."
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