ShouldaCouldaWoulda

Is that the year prior to his contract? Just assuming, as the Twins love to buy-high, even when it isn't even needed.

Yeah, everyone seems to believe that Pelfrey would somehow magically be effective out of the pen, and as a late innings reliever even. Not all starters are more effective in the pen. Sometimes bad is exploited wherever you are. I think he would have been a decent middle reliever, and multiple innings guy when the starter gets knocked out early. Basically he could eat innings. I do not think he would have been a good late innings reliever....way way way too much contact given up to be used as a late innings reliever.

With the lowest ceiling. Comparing him to any of the other guys who have a bad year, is not a compliment. fWar is also based on counting, so not by average start. He was not better than either Santana or Duffey. He just pitched more often.

I am a big fan of Rosario's tools/athleticism; because of that, he will always have the potential to have good seasons in the field and at the plate. However, I do not see any reason to believe that he will just naturally become a more patient hitter. That is not something that just comes with age or progression. Low minors bb% have been proven to not correlate with upper level minors or MLB bb%'s, so there isn't much support for him getting better in this department. I think he has had an overall good season, not great. We might overvalue him because he is young and and a Twin. He is probably under appreciated to the rest of the league, but he's probably not as good as we like to think he is. He is NOT Santana, but he sure has some scary similarities to him. Like I mentioned, I don't think the bb's will just come, but one can hope. I do think he will remain a useful player that is above average. But, I do think his profile puts him as the type of player that could have a horrendous or really good season at any time due to his horrible approach, yet amazing skills. Flawed, but good player. He is personally one of my favorite players to root for though. Someone made the comment about him being moved to 5th against RHP, and I agree. I have been disappointed in the lineup construction from a platoon standpoint. Basically, he and Hicks should be flip-flopping being higher and lower in the lineup based on pitcher handedness. There are other clear lineup movement that should be happening too, but it's not on the top of my list of disappointing non-decisions. Fun player, fun season.

Okay, but Baseball Prospectus seems to believe he was a kid worth hiring. A list of their past writers, is kind of a who's who list of sorts, and many have or currently gone on to work in front offices. Age and experience do not necessarily have to correlate with intelligence or correctness. Anyway, I was just passing on something I read, because I enjoy all takes about my favorite team.

Okay, I led us astray. They are athletes, they just don't NEED to be athletic. Possessing a physically specific skill, doesn't always take overall full-body athleticism.

I always get excited when baseball writers choose to write something about the the home team, whether it is good or bad. I especially like it when it is analytical, and not just point out they are good/bad, but more so looking at things deeper. Anyway, I read a good article at Baseball Prospectus today that was on the failure of the Twins to put the best 5 pitchers in the organization on the mound at any given point. I will leave just the final paragraph and link (payer.) I am not sure if I would get in trouble if I copy and pasted the whole article. Matthew Trueblood-----"Humans are too often guilty of seeing a problem with many possible solutions of similar probabilistic promise and declaring it a muddle. It’s not a muddle. If there’s no such thing as a pitcher, that shouldn’t lead a team to throw its hands up, or to take an un-nuanced approach to building a pitching staff. It shouldn’t lead a team to allow critical pitching decisions to be made based on soft factors or contract status. It should, instead, lead teams to strive diligently to optimize their pitching decisions at all times, with special emphasis given to keeping pitching moves cost-efficient. If the margins are always thin, the gaps in talent or projectability always likely to be outrun by swings in variance, it actually becomes more important than ever to put the numbers on one’s side. The Twins didn’t do it this season. They didn’t make sure they put the best available arm on the mound as often as possible, and they didn’t systematically build a pitching staff the cost of which correlated well with its value. They’ve caught some bad breaks and had a few things unexpectedly go missing, but if they miss the playoffs because of the shortcomings of their rotation, it’s not going to be the universe’s fault. It’s going to be the Twins’." http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=27496

I think Meyer should absolutely be up. There is no reason NOT to have him up. You aren't sending someone down by brining him, and we gain an extra "live" arm in a last ditch stretch at making he playoffs. He might fail, but he has already had a down season, so failing with the big club isn't going to add any extra sadness to his life I doubt. If nothing else, it would be good for he pitching coaches to get a look at him in person, and for them to be able to work with him some to end the season. Just maybe that is all he needs. Being part of a playoff chase is also a good experience for a young player to learn from, and can help in future positions like this. I don't really think the Twins should feel that they have too many better options than Meyer right now, because the don't. Added onto that, Arcia should be up too. Not because he earned it, but because he could be used as a pinch-hitter in some spots that might make a difference. He wouldn't be getting any starts, so its not like he is on "scholarship" or anything, but if he can even possibly help in one situation...he should be here in case. Maybe it helps refocus him being around guys that are succeeding as a team, and maybe he would be put in his place. I would think maybe Hunter could reach a guy like him.

Currently, Joe Mauer is as much an "athlete" as are pitchers, or NASCAR/golfers are. Mauer has a "skill," and that is to hit a baseball. That skill is diminishing, with his body diminishing. He still owns that skill, but a better body would likely bring better returns on his skill. There is no one way to improve a persons body, but working hard and often doing "something" is at least directionally right.

The recency of this success does not make the posters argument invalid. Glad he is finding a way to get back on base frequently, but this post does not seem to be about JM "sucking," but rather looking at reasons why he hasn't been the JM that we first fell in love with. My simplified opinion is that Joe was a smart hitter, young, but not athletically elite, nor much of hard worker when it comes to strangling his body when he entered the league. You can get away with that when you are young, but as you age you either need to be physically gifted naturally, age well, and or work you butt off in the offseason to keep up. These seem to be the things the poster is talking about, not that JM isn't a good player. *Am loving the recent production though, even it is not really next-level or elite for a 1B, but certainly better than his recent history. Hope he keeps it up because I will take this JM.

Well, I don't really think that Rosario has done anything to show that he warrants an automatic corner spot. He has been good for stretches and in certain areas, but he most certainly a very flawed player, with chances of future failure a realistic possibility. Buxton is always an injury risk, and hasn't shown he is close to hitting MLB pitching. Hicks is also frequently dinged up, and can't hit RHP's, and needs to prove a more sustained level of success. Buxton, Rosario, and Hicks all have potential to improve, or at least stabilize, but the chance of going the other direction is just as good too. So, the odds that one fails and opens the door for Kepler is likely, at least at some point in the season. It is not like Hicks or Rosario can't be a 4th OF'er or platooned. They aren't automatic everyday start kind of guys. I like them, but just being realistic. IF, and this needs to be realized that this "IF" isn't guaranteed by any means, that Kepler hits well again next year...there will most likely be a path to playing time for him, once they can ensure his clock being delayed. Homers usually forget that young players regress, just as often as the progress. Being young does not mean a consistent climb in performance over time. Heck, even if it just the mere forgetting their muscle-memory mechanics over the winter. Some guys lose and never figure out how to recapture what it was that made them successful.

His OBP will likely be tied to his avg, or more likely his BABIP. He will never walk much, but might have a fluke year or two of slightly more walks than usual for him. The Danny Santana comp is pretty fair, in the regards to the epically low bb%, high BABIP, with good hit tool. Rosario does have a better hit tool though, and better power. We kind of overvalue Rosario right now because he is young and new, but the guy likely won't improve much value-wise, unless he walks more. That don'ts mean he isn't good or valuable, but just that his OBP absolutely limits his value and future.

No, they only have strikeout limits on our pitchers. They are only allowed 6 or fewer per nine innings. That is why Duffey will be shut down, and Berrios wasn't allowed to pitch.

Dick, if Duffey was brought up instead of Berrios because things like holding runners on, we are in trouble;) Great narrative for the game.

I kinda assumed that they/he would be focussing on the change to address the issue vs RH's. Maybe thats is the problem at the moment even. Maybe he has been using a very raw and early changeup and it is getting rocked. If this is the case, I would not worry. Probably is the case. Good to here it though.

Odd, no. I am guessing that I have written more more odd takes than this. Yes, I pointed out a concern in small sample. Yet, it was still a noticeable and glaring concern. I wasn't trolling him...I WANT him to succeed. Sorry for looking at his numbers and that I found something obvious for anyone else to find. The majority of the batters he faced were RH too, so it wasn't like using the smaller sample of LH's he faced, which he was great against. I get how people can get pissed about reading anything that is negative about their team, but I was simply pointing out something that was obvious, and I do believe it is something that will be addressed and hopefully fixed, but I also doubt it was just a random small sample size situation. He likely needs to change something up vs RH-hitters. I also think that Jay will pan out, I just don't know that it will be as a starter. I also think that Meyer will pas out too, and he is getting late in his prospect years.

I would not bet on him making it as a starter. The odds just aren't good. One thing I did notice while scanning his stats over is his terrible splits vs RH-hitters...they owned him. He was great vs LH-hitters though. Having extreme splits is not something that screams starter. Small sample, yes, but their is certainly something real behind that that will need to be addressed if he has any chance. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=664079#/splits/R/pitching/2015/MINORS Like the way he finished this last month out though. Rooting that he pans out. Guessing that this might be a bumpy ride for the next few years, if starting is the route we are pushing.

There is no injury concerns with Berrios that he is coming back from of battling. A pitcher can get hurt, with limited innings, and a guy can stay healthy with a heavy workload. It is all circumstantial, mechanics, genetics, recent history vs previous years history, etc. Hell, it could just be one odd slightly weird movement that slightly tears something, and don't notice, but then pitch again and tear something. Everyone pitcher is different, and some are likely more prone to tearing than others, just like football players and ACL's. It isn't carriers that matter as much, but the player himself, along with many other small variables. However, Berrios is not a big guy. I guess I don't know that really matters in workload or being more likely to be injured though.

Like his smile there at the end;) May should be closing now, and Jepsen in the 8th. Nothing against Jepsen, just believe May is better and would do better. Experience is the only reason this isn't being done, which is kinda silly.

Just correlating the Buxton situation.

Bring in May!

..so the Twins would pinch hit for him with the backup catcher?

So, we lose on a HR here or win via a K.

Agree with this. I do get that end results are all that matter, by themselves. The old, it was pretty, but got the job done. Kind of how the Twins were winning in May, or how the starting rotation was not giving up runs in the first half. Bad teams can go on winning streaks with poor stats to back it up, as staring pitchers like Pelrfrey can do the same for a stretch, as closers can get the job done without being shutdown dominant for most of a season even. However, I think that Perkins is closer material. I will give that he likely isn't elite closer, or upper-teir dominant, but he could be a closer on several teams. On the other hand, my gut tells me that May would be a better closer than healthy Perkins. I would rather have Perkins over Jepsen. I would like Jepsen and Perkins as 7th/8th inning guys depending on who is coming up that inning, and May to close it out. Personal opinion there, but like Perkins, and have no problem rolling with him if he's healthy and effective. I also asumed that the OP was just wanting discussion on who is next in line, if and only if Perkins never regains his health or effectiveness.

...And of course a high k and bb guy can blow up, just as a low k and bb ground ball machine can give up a ton of hits. Just saying in a vacuum, giving the choice between the two types, with equal whips....I'll take the first guy every time for my bullpen, and likely for the rotation too. On Pelfrey, while you mention him, I don't understand the fascination of resigning him for the bullpen. I have even seen guys mention him as an 8th inning guy. He is the anti late innings type of guy. He can't strike anyone out, even though he throws harder than anyone else in the rotation. I don't get that. Is he just overly predictable, does have have no out pitch? How is he so easily hittable?