tarheeltwinsfan

The one year anniversary of the new Falvine Team has come and gone. We have a year's activity to judge this duo and like any new management there are some pluses and minuses, as follows:
 
PLUSES:
 
1. The Twins improved by 26 wins over 2016. In truth, even F&L's biggest supporters would be hard pressed to attribute this improvement to their actions, as the only FA signing was Juan Castro and while he was a noted improvement defensively, he didn't come close to Suzuki's offensive contribution with Atlanta in 2017. The improvement came primarily from Ryan's young nucleus that started to emerge in 2017, especially Buxton, Berrios, Rosario and to a lesser extent, Polanco. Good years from veteran holdovers Santana, Mauer and Dozier played a significant role, as well.
 
2. Hiring James Rowson as hitting coach. He has been given credit for working with young players like Buxton and Polanco for their second half surges. How much of this improvement is due to Rowson's tutelage and how much due to the individual's natural maturation is a relevant question, but there is little doubt that the Twins' were a much improved hitting team in 2017 and for this, Rowson should be given some credit, at the very least.
 
3.The double trade of Jamie Garcia. While steeped in controversy, Falvine's move to acquire a solid mid-rotation starter for a low level prospect was a refreshing change from the previous regime who rarely dipped into the trade mart in midseason, except for adding several veterans at the deadline when the Twins were very much in the race in the 2002-2010 seasons. More shocking was their dumping of Garcia at the deadline for two prospects. While ccriticized at the time for waving the white flag, year end results affirmed that this was the right move, adding two good prospects without losing much in the way of rotation depth.
 
4. The pickup of Colon, while pretty much derided at the time, proved important in stabilizing the rotation in August when the Twins surged back into the playoff race. While Bartolo showed his age in September, his contributions in August provided a huge lift to a team struggling to stay above water.
 
MINUSES
 
1. Failure to significantly improve the bullpen. This was the most glaring omission in Falvine's 2016-2017 offseason. Bringing in Craig Breslow and Matt Belisle as the only two outside relievers was a mistake from day one of the 2017 season. The bullpen was a glaring weakness in 2016, yet despite a good number of FA's available, the duo was surprisingly passive in trying to improve the situation. One can fairly ask : what were they thinking?
 
2. Failure to agressively go after a right handed bat that could be the primary DH and provide some backup at 1B. With the large number of DH-types available, failing to improve upon Robby Grossman should be looked at as a glaring omission in last offseason.
 
3. The trade of Kinsler at the deadline failed to bring sufficient return(at least based on Wheeler's MILB record). Giving a talented closer up for peanuts made little sense at the time and less so as we go into the offseason still looking for 2-3 late inning shutdown relievers. It was fortuitous that Belisle managed to fill the hole adequately and that Busenitz and Hildenberger provided a surprising bridge to the closer.
 
4. The hiring of Garvin Alston as pitching coach. I know, I know - it is much too soon to damn this move before he even steps on the field, but there are two reasons to doubt the veracity of this move. First, he has a very undistinguished coaching career, having not been a pitching coach above the Single A Minor League Level, having more experience as a pitching rehab coordinator than pitching coordinator, having been fired after a couple months as San Diego's pitching rehab coordinator, and never having any major league pitching success. And yet our wonder boards went out on a limb and hired him because they thought he was a good communicator. And this decision was made in an offseason when such worthies as Mike Maddox, Carl Willis, Chris Bosio and Jim Hickey were all available. Are F&L so arrogant to think they know better than all the top baseball minds who went with proven pitching coaches because they see something no one else has?? I hope I am sorely mistaken about this choice but with an open window to improve the team, the risk/reward ratio seems perilous, at least as of now.
 
We are now entering the most significant part of the offseason - the GM Mtgs this week and the Owner mtgs next month. It's too early to tell what our new team will do. After years of torpidity under Terry Ryan, we are all hoping that Falvine will be up to the task. This means not waiting until all the quality free agents have signed elsewhere; no more Ricky Nolasco-type signings; no more dumpster diving for washed up relievers; willingness to trade top prospects for bonafide major leaguers who can fill gaping voids at the head of the rotation and shutdown relievers.
 
Early reports(and yes they are in the infancy stage as of now) indicate the Twins will be significant players for top end starters like Darvish or Arrietta. As most Twins Daily readers acknowledge, with no #1 or #2 starter types in their minor league system, if the Twins are going to make the big jump to compete with the Indians and Astros, they need to find at least one potential ace. Will they spend the money to do this. Pohlad has always been quoted as saying he will authorize the money when asked by his GM for the right player(s). Well, this is the time to do that! And while the FA pickings seem slim, Ohtani should be high on their radar(by which we mean more than just sniffing around). They have factors in their favor to make an all out pitch for this guy. If they wind up settling for their usual average pitcher then mark down this offseason as a failure. The need is clear, but is the will and determination there?
 
Reports that they are seeking the Red's closer by trade do little to add to our confidence. Even us amateurs know that there are enough quality FA relievers available to significantly bolster the bullpen. Why give up 2 or 3 of their limited number of prospects for a reliever when their needs in the rotation are so much more glaring. I would hope that the Twins would consider trading said prospects for a stud starter than for a reliever.
 
In any case, the duo will now have to produce - in a big way. Their creativity and moxie will be tested to the max in an offseason that is a seller's market for pitching. How they do will go a long way to see whether the Falvey/LaVine team will turn around our 26 years of futility and bring a championship back to the Twin Cities. The clock is ticking!

The Minnesota Twins enter the offseason prior to 2018 with immense expectations. Following a season in which they arrived in the postseason a year early, this club looks ready to take the next step, and the AL Central is begging them to do so. Knowing pitching remains a focus, a free agent starter seems to be a sensible acquisition. The question always revolved around how high the Twins may aim though.
According to a report from Fanrag's Jon Heyman, Minnesota is coming out guns blazing. While the arms on the market are hardly plentiful at the top, Derek Falvey an Thad Levine appear to be keyed in on premier starter Yu Darvish. Levine was a part of the front office that signed him in Texas, and the fit is one I've liked for quite a while. Yes, he'll likely command the greatest contract of the available starting pitcher's, but that's not something that should deter Minnesota's efforts.
 
Darvish will be pitching 2018 at 31 years old. He has just over 830 innings on his arm in the big leagues, but that number jumps to 2,100-plus dating back to his time with Nippon Ham in the Japanese Pacific League. Potentially no worse for the wear however, Darvish has actually added to his velocity post Tommy John surgery, and he's been healthy each of the past two seasons.
 
For both Texas and Los Angeles in 2017, Darvish owned a 3.86 ERA across 31 starts. Rejoining the All Star team for the first time since 2014, Darvish posted a 10.1 K/9 with a paltry 2.8 BB/9. His 3.83 FIP was a career worst, but was better (3.38) with the Dodgers down the stretch. On the biggest stage in the game, Yu was knocked around by the Houston Astros, but I hardly find his World Series performance concerning. Given the talk of tipped pitches, I tend to believe Darvish is more the guy that went 11.1 IP with a 1.59 ERA against the Dbacks and Cubs, than he is the 21.60 ERA guy in 3.1 IP vs the Astros.
 
It's likely the last chance for Darvish to cash in on a long term deal, and he'll probably want to expand upon the $11m he received a season ago. A free agent for the first time since coming to the big leagues, Darvish is going to have plenty of suitors. Even as the price tag climbs towards an expected $200m though, Minnesota should continue to fight for real estate in the Japanese pitcher's mind.
 
At the end of the day, a perfect storm is brewing in Twins Territory. The 25 man roster has gotten younger and cheaper, while money should dive off the books in the next few years. On top of that, the division has three teams that should be virtually nonexistent in the foreseeable future, and Paul Molitor's club already began to exceed expectations. If there's a time to go and make the biggest free agent signing in franchise history, now seems as good of one as ever.
 
With the goal being to develop internally for the sake of sustainability, there comes a point where supplementing with high-end talent from the outside seems the best answer. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are arguably now at that crossroads, and how they handle the offseason will likely lay the groundwork for how at least the next few seasons go for Minnesota.
 
Right now, with things in such infancy, it's hard to get giddy about the potential to land a big fish. That being said, when I wanted Darvish for the Twins rotation back in May, it was for the same reasons that I feel the same way now. He's a difference maker, a solidifying presence, and a true ace. Those things don't grow on trees, and you never know when the next opportunity will present itself.
 
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As the Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners were announced of the night of November 7th, Byron Buxton was a lock. Yes, there were surprises among the finalists, but it was a certainty that the Twins centerfielder would win his first. There wasn't going to be a Mauer-esque snub, or a Dozier-like surprise, Byron Buxton is the best centerfielder baseball currently has to offer. With the Gold Glove solidifying that belief as reality, the question now becomes, how many more follow it?
 
To recap a bit, Buxton was nothing short of exceptional in the outfield for the Twins this season; you don't need sabermetrics to inform you of that. Looking at the numbers, he posted 24 DRS, a 9.9 UZR, 12.6 RngR, and a 13.1 UZR/150. In short, it was both his speed and his routes that made him the most impressive centerfielder in the game. Statcast (via Baseball Savant) came out with a new metric, Outs Above Average, for 2017 as well. Buxton's 25 OAA led all of baseball, and was also better than the total any other team (Rays 2nd with 23) could muster. For his efforts, Buxton's ability added 6 percent to expected catch percentages on balls hit his way.
 
It seems that each time Statcast puts forth a new defensive metric, it's Buxton that finds himself at the top. The 26 four-star outs he recorded in 2017 were an MLB best, and the 92.9% conversion rate on those outs (26-28) were also tops in the major leagues. With a 30.2 ft/s sprint speed on the basepaths, Buxton has also taken the crown as the fastest player in The Show. You'll likely be looking for a while to find something he doesn't excel at in the field.
Whether just watching him from afar, or taking a deeper dive into the advanced analytics, it's apparent that the kid from Baxley, GA is special.
 
So, with one Gold Glove now is his trophy case, the question becomes how many join it? Knowing what we do at this moment about his career, and what we can project going forward, I think there's a couple places we can point to in making an educated guess.
 
First and foremost, there's going to need to be a level of offense that follows Buxton's path. While the Gold Glove is a defensive award, Joe Mauer was left out for bigger offensive names, and Brian Dozier was included (and won) for his prowess with the bat. A guy like Buxton, so far beyond normal realms in the field, is going to be given more of a pass with his bat. For both the Twins and Buxton going forward though, the dish can't simply be a place where he punts. The good news is that a rebuilt swing under James Rowson has made it seem like that won't be the case.
 
Buxton ended 2017 with a career best .728 OPS despite hitting below the Mendoza Line for the first two months of the year. Across his final 82 games of 2017, Buxton owned an .801 OPS with a .278 AVG and a .332 OBP. In a full season, those numbers elevate Buxton to All-Star status, with at least a couple of MVP votes along the way. For a guy that's hit at every level of his career, I think we've only begun to see the offensive production begin to blossom, and that's quite the comforting development.
 
Outside of what Buxton can do in the field or at the plate, it will be integral for him to stay healthy as well. While there are times that routes are less than crisp, or closing speed allows for miraculous catches, the Twins centerfielder often finds himself acquainted with immobile objects. Finding a way to balance the ability to save games, but also not miss them will be a must as his career goes on. Outfield walls are far from forgiving, and missing stretches of play from crashing into them is hardly an ideal tradeoff. Some of Buxton's biggest highlights have included physical altercations with field dimensions, but he'll need to take care of himself from a longevity point of view.
 
Finally, how much can Buxton unlock from his arm. With advanced metrics measuring all aspects of defensive output, Byron has an opportunity to push the envelope with his throwing ability. A strong arm that can touch the mid-90s, accuracy seemed to leave him at points during 2017. Whether throws sail up the line, or miss cutoffs in certain scenarios, cutting down runners with more pinpoint accuracy is only going to enhance his defensive offerings as a whole.
 
Looking across the landscape of centerfielders, and specifically those that played for the Minnesota Twins, I'm comfortable putting Buxton Gold Glove over/under at nine. It's the same number that Torii Hunter won, and three more than Kirby Puckett tallied.
 
As a betting man myself, I'll take the under, but only slightly. My fear is that Buxton's reckless abandon costs him time at some points during his career, and that will hold him back from putting up the counting stats. If healthy however, Buxton is easily the best centerfielder I've ever seen, and watching him reach double-digits in the Gold Glove department would be an absolute treat.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

What a year!
2016 2017 changeActual Wins 59 85 +26
Improving by 26 games is quite a feat. So how did the 2017 Twins get there?
2016 2017 changeActual Wins 59 85 +26Pythag Wins 66 83 +17Luck -7 +2 +9
Okay, so the actual improvement was more like 17 games. The "Luck" here is shorthand for the difference between their wins and the wins we should have expected given their run totals--in other words, the advantage the Twins had over a team that scores runs in the average distribution. It is a measure of the luck involved in when the runs scored, not in whether the runs scored.
 
Wait, so one-third of the 2017 Twins performance improvement was due to luck? Should we despair that the success is illusory and thus expect the Twins to sink back to mediocrity? Not quite. The 2016 Twins were quite unlucky, so it isn't bad that they changed that. You can't count on the number being much higher than +2 in 2018, but neither should we assume it will certainly be lower. Typical division winners outperform their Pythagorean record, and so the Twins should hope to do so in 2018. That this "luck" number is merely +2 should calm the Twins fans' insecurities; the Royals has a luck number of +8 in falling short of .500, and so Royals fans should acquiesce to their unavoidable rebuild period.
 
So enough about "luck". Where did the Twins' actual improvement in run-scoring and run-preventing achievements come from?
2016 2017 changeLuck -7 +2 +9Hitters WAR 17.0 28.7 +11.7Pitchers WAR 1.8 7.0 +5.2
So three-fourths of the Twins' actual improvement was in their hitters. Let's take a closer look at it. Note that I am evaluating their hitters with hitting, baserunning, and fielding put together.
WAR 2016 2017 changeHitters 16.0 24.9 +8.9 CF Buxton 1.9 5.1 +3.2C Suzuki=>Castro 0.4 2.5 +2.13B Sano 0.8 2.5 +1.7SS Polanco 0.6 2.1 +1.51B Mauer 2.3 3.4 +1.1LF Rosario 1.1 1.7 +0.6DH Grossman 0.3 0.8 +0.5RF Kepler 2.1 2.4 +0.32B Dozier 6.5 4.4 -2.1CI Escobar -0.6 1.3 +1.94O Santana=>Granite -1.3 0.3 +1.6BC Centeno=>Gimenez 0.8 0.7 -0.1CI Plouffe=>Vargas 0.4 0.3 -0.1MI Nunez=>Adrianza 1.5 0.9 -0.6
A nine-win improvement from your starting lineup is excellent, and the bench even improved a bit. Do you think that the Twins did nothing last offseason? Looking at the above, I see ten moves the Twins made (or avoided making) that altogether led to this twelve-win improvement.
 
Moves that worked
 
Staying committed to Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario: The Twins stuck with Byron Buxton through a rough May and June. It would have been defensible to have demoted him to work on his hitting in AAA. The Terry Ryan regime might have done just that, but Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stuck with him, most notably because his fielding was not just above average but the best in the league. In the end, Buxton refined his swing and started hitting like his promise always showed.
 
In the same vein, the Twins stayed consistent with Jorge Polanco, who spent the entire year as the starting shortstop. While he didn't have defensive talent to help him along, the confidence in his ability paid off as his hitting skyrocketed in the second half. There was pressure to demote Polanco, but faith in him was paid off well.
 
Similarly, Rosario found a better stroke and contributed more than most thought reasonable to hope for.
 
Replacing Kurt Suzuki with Jason Castro: Passing on extending Suzuki, the Twins figured they could do better, and did so with Jason Castro. Castro is under contract through 2019, so the move will continue to pay off.
 
Keeping Sano at third base instead of DH: There was fear that Sano in the field at third base could be a liability, but he has done quite well there. The Twins definitely expect more production from Sano's bat, but keeping him at third base should be at least the short-term plan, assuming his current shin injury is not an impediment for doing so in 2018.
 
Not trading Dozier: While his production declined a bit from a stellar 2016, Dozier was still the third-best of all the Twins. The leading rumor last year was that the Dodgers would have traded Jose De Leon, but the Twins wanted more. That judgment paid off, as we can only assume that the Twins would not have found most of Dozier's 4.4 WAR anywhere else.
 
Not giving up on Mauer against LHP: Like most Twins fans, I was disappointed in Mauer's overall hitting in the years following the concussion, and I was clamoring for them to platoon him. Instead, he hit a respectable .750 OPS against lefties, and more, there was no obvious choice to pair with as a platoon. The Twins should continue to decrease Mauer's appearances against lefties, but the urgency to make this platoon a priority is eased.
 
Keeping Eduardo Escobar despite a poor 2016. Escobar as a bench player contributed as the Twins hoped and not as they feared. While he might not play much again at shortstop, his bat is enough to warrant keeping on as a corner infielder.
 
Moves that bombed
 
Sticking with Grossman at DH: The Twins thought Grossman could hit, so they gave him lots more chances at DH. Well, we should now realize that he can hit...sort of. The Twins could have added a win or two with a better DH.
 
Giving chances to Vargas: I think we now know that Vargas is not a major league DH. Could Falvey and Levine have come to this conclusion a bit sooner?
 
Not bolstering the bench: While improvements here would have been marginal, the right set of moves may have added a win or two.
 
On to the pitchers.
2016 2017 change5 Starters 1.5 7.4 +5.9Berrios -1.7 1.7 +3.4Duffey=>Colon -1.6 0.1 +1.7Santana 3.8 4.6 +0.8Nolasco=>Mejia 0.4 0.8 +0.4Gibson 0.6 0.2 -0.4
Pitching was disappointing, but there is a bit of hope in that they indeed improved, and two young pitchers clearly took steps forward.
 
Moves that worked
 
Not trading Santana: My choice for team MVP, J. Ervin Santana was the only comfortable part of this rotation. The Twins could have traded him, as he isn't a legitimate top-tier ace, but they would have been lost without him.
 
Committing to Berrios: This was an easier decision given his solid start to the season, but they could have sent him to Rochester to start the year--and perhaps Terry Ryan would have done so. Instead, he now looks like a real pitcher who is ready to show the rest of the league his mettle.
 
Giving lots of chances to Mejia: While Mejia's WAR is disappointing from a competition perspective, it is in line with a player in his stage of development. Without starting Mejia early and often the Twins might have hurt themselves, but more importantly, Mejia's development in the majors should give him more confidence and experience to improve in 2018.
 
Signing Bartolo Colon: While his last month showed us that the Twins shouldn't press their luck, Colon gave the Twins just a dash of added success, however meek, that wasn't available anywhere else. Dillon Gee was just not going to get it done.
 
Raising the standard past Duffey: When you are used to seeing poor pitching, Tyler Duffey might have looked promising, but he really isn't. There's a chance he can improve going forward, but it isn't a big one.
 
Moves that bombed
Signing Nolasco and extending Hughes: Yes, this was an old decision, but the Twins paid too much for Phil Hughes (in dollars+years) and Ricky Nolasco (in losing Alex Meyer). If they could have found a better free agent pitcher in 2014-2016 to help them this year, it would have been a bump up in the win column.
 
Not having an ace: Easier said than done, but imagine how better off the Twins would be with an additional pitcher to start above Santana. All the other playoff teams had at least one top-tier starter, but the Twins are now stuck without one. I can't say that there was a move available to address this, but it remains an albatross the Twins will carry for the foreseeable future.
 
And the bullpen:
2016 2017 changeRelievers 2.2 2.9 +0.8Tonkin=>Busenitz -0.4 0.7 +1.1Milone=>Breslow -0.7 -0.1 +0.6Rogers 0.6 1.1 +0.5Kintzler 1.0 1.1 +0.1May=>Belisle -0.1 0.0 +0.1Dean=>Duffey -0.4 -0.4 0.0Boshers 0.0 -0.1 -0.1Abad=>Hildenberger 1.0 0.8 -0.2Pressly 1.0 -0.2 -0.8
The Twins couldn't even get three wins-above-replacement from their top 9 relievers--which is particularly problematic when you remember that a replacement-level team would win only 45 or so games.
 
Moves that worked
 
Calling up Hildenberger and Busenitz: These two relievers outperformed all but two of the Twins' bullpen members, and did so in limited playing time. Hopefully this teaches the Twins a lesson--but it may be more apt to say that Falvey and Levine are teaching the Twins this lesson already: trust your young players if you believe they are good. 0.5 WAR replacement players are just that: replacable and often replaced. Why replace them with other scrap-heap signings and waiver claims when you could replace them with young, ready-enough talent?
 
Moves that bombed
 
Sticking with Pressly, Boshers, Breslow, and Duffey: These pitchers should have very little shot at a competitive team's bullpen. They just don't seem good enough, and the latter three are in danger of being designated for assignment--if not this offseason, at some point in the future when the Twins find relievers who are worthy. Particularly disappointing is Tyler Duffey, whose transition to the bullpen has been frustrating for himself and Twins coaches alike.
 
Not finding other bullpen help: The Twins could have spent some millions improving their bullpen with options better than Belisle. The biggest flaws in the bullpen this year were injuries to Wimmers, Perkins, May, Chargois, O'Rourke, and Jay, though of course this is not reflective of a move that worked or failed; it's just too bad the Twins didn't have any other better options to turn to.
 
Signing Matt Belisle: Feel free to object to this one, as I agree Belisle was one of the Twins' only good options in the bullpen--but they could have and should have done better.
 
Becoming a real competitor
 
Reflecting on all of this, here are some moves that you might want to put into your off-season blueprint. The Twins need to get to 92 wins to have a good chance to beat the Indians and win the division in 2018, and it may take more than that. It is a lot easier to get there from 83 pythagorean wins than in any of the five seasons previous, so now's the time to go for it.
 
Expect more from Buxton and Sano: The Twins two most promising players underperformed as hitters in 2018: Buxton for the first half, and Sano with injuries and a minor slump. These two are on a excellent trajectory and still have a ton of promise. Neither of them should be a disappointment to anyone, and I am hoping for 10-12 WAR from them in 2018.
 
Keep Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana: These are the kind of players the Twins should want to acquire, not trade away. Should the Twins keep them till free agency, they can make them each a qualifying offer and thereafter win an additional draft pick, which is a better outcome than trading them for B-level prospects. They are both solid players, and I hope for them to repeat their 9 WAR together in 2018.
 
Sign or trade for a designated hitter: I do not like the idea of moving Sano to DH and relying on Escobar or converting Polanco or a prospect shortstop to a poor-hitting third baseman. It would be far easier to find some other upgrade at DH than it would to commit to prospects at shortstop/third base for the next few years. As long as Sano is near-average in the field at third base, let him stay there. Besides, Polanco projects as a better second baseman than third baseman, which the Twins will need after Dozier leaves in free agency for 2019. Keeping Sano at third keeps Escobar as a bench bat and infield fill-in and descreases the need to play players like Adrianza or Goodrum. A capable DH should be able to increase output by 1.5 WAR next year over Grossman.
 
Sign an elite reliever: It is going to be easier to sign a reliever here than a starter, and the Twins have to get better at pitching anywhere. Signing Wade Davis, for example, would improve the bullpen tremendously and let the Twins use Hildenberger, Rogers, Buesnitz, and players coming back from injury in roles they can bulid success in. Wade Davis has achieved 3 WAR several times in his career, and we could hope for the same impact, especially if used wisely.
 
Attempt to trade for an ace starter if it is posslble: This is a tough sell, so I won't belabor it. Hope for it, but it is unlikely. The Twins can't sell the farm for this, so it probably won't happen, but it is the biggest area the Twins could improve. They should at least try. As for signings, I'd make a semi-serious offer for Darvish or even Arrieta, but it likely won't have enough years or dollars to get either.
 
Plan on trusting young starters over any free agents: While some may think the Twins should sign a free-agent pitcher, the risk of another Nolasco contract is large. Even if the Twins find a pitcher better than Nolasco and on par or even a bit better than Kyle Gibson, it would not appreciably improve the team, as the Twins already have six starters at this level: Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, Aaron Slegers, Fernando Romero, Felix Jorge, and of course, Gibson. You can hope for 1.0-1.5 WAR out of any of these players; why go hunting for expensive free agents for it? Perhaps one of them will break through and deliver 3 WAR. So altogether, I'm hoping for an increase of 4 WAR out of the three, four, and five starting pitchers even with no trades or free agent signings.
 
Plan on trusting young relievers over inexpensive free agents: The Matt Belisle signing is not one the Twins should repeat. While they should consider signing pitchers who are a step up from Belisle, signing a pitcher at Belisle's level (or even extending Belisle himself) is too weak an ambition to improve the team. The Twins have already shown confidence in Hildenberger and Busenitz, which should continue. The previously mentioned Perkins, May, Chargois, O'Rourke, and Jay are all options to help the Twins bullpen in 2018, as well as Jake Reed and John Curtiss after them. The Twins' farm system might be considered strong in relief pitching and 2018 is the year to start gaining from it. From the two through six relievers, the Twins can get 5 WAR better from just small improvements from each spot. One or two relievers will get worse and one or two may break through, but the 2017 baseline is so low that it will look like a new bullpen altogether in the aggregate.
 
Consider signing or trading for a bench bat, preferably outfield: Assuming that Rosario or Zack Granite can play center field in a pinch, it might make sense to find an corner outfielder with some pop against left-handers. Even without a full-time platoon, such a player would be valuable off the bench. The Twins were hoping they could ask this out of Grossman, but it seems that they don't trust him to play defense regularly. Furthermore, neither Rosario and Kepler should be taken for granted; if either get injured or go into an extended slump, someone will need to step in. Chris B. Young or Rajai Davis look to be the best free agent options that somewhat fit. Perhaps the trade market might have a younger or better right-handed hitter. An increase of 1 WAR is reachable here.
 
So all of these realistic, affordable decisions could result in an increase of 17 WAR, to bring the projected win total from 83 pythagorean wins (that is, wins with 0 luck) to 100, and it can be achieved with a modest payroll increase, few or no trades, and keeping the above average farm system going. Now I am not claiming that any of these projected performances are certain or even very likely. Even if the Twins make all these moves, players will get injured, slump, or just trail off into yearlong struggles. However, if the Twins execute an offseason plan to shoot for 100 wins, there's a chance they get 92 or 95, or even 102.
 
The time for the Twins to have low expectations is over. The Twins should be aiming for 100 wins, and they can do it with a little gumption and strategy.

​Wheelin' and Dealin' - Off season trade targets
 
 
Despite the undeniable successful season the Twins had in 2017, as tends to happen in the playoffs, deficiencies and holes in the lineup, rotation and bullpen become less transparent and more of a glaring, vacuous hole - clearly seen. For instance, Robbie Grossman started the American League Wild Card game for the Minnesota Twins, not as an injury replacement for a banged up regular - no, he was the starting Designated Hitter - a position he had manned for the majority of the year. In fact, Grossman was the DH twice as much as any other Twin in 2017, with 63 appearances - 33 more than Kennys Vargas, and 38 more than the starting 3B Miguel Sano. A lot can be said for Robbie Grossman; he is a serviceable fourth Outfielder, and this year he provided value primarily in the form of getting on base - he walked 67 times in 2017 - but a primary Designated Hitter is not one of those things.
 
This isn't to rag on Robbie Grossman. It is, however, to point out a glaring need in the Twins lineup - a power bat - preferable right handed, for balance sake, which is soaked with left handed and switch hitters. Again, poor Robbie Grossman isn't the problem, per se, he's the result of a team that is band-aiding a fundamental piece, and that's not (obviously) the only one. The relief pitching, as I wrote in a previous post, was bottom 1/3rd in the league and desperately lacking in strikeouts. Starting pitching, though seemingly every team in the league shares this need, was especially true for the Twins who - until the reemergence of an energized Kyle Gibson - had a lack of consistency behind Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios. The Twins aren't exactly known for loosening the purse strings to hand out massive contracts to solve these problems, though that is an option, they are more than capable with the current farm (Keith Law ranked them at number 11 in the MLB) of swinging trades that could solve some of these woes.
 
As the right handed bat was my first example, lets break down a few scenarios (all hypothetical, obviously) that may make sense for the Twins to pursue as we begin the transition into the Hot Stove season.
 
​Right Handed Power Bat

The "Salary Dump Veteran" - Matt Kemp, Atlanta Braves

Matt Kemp has had an interesting, and fairly disappointing, career arch. Once a highly touted young outfielder, and second place finisher (who probably should have won) in the National League MVP award in 2011, has seen a series of mediocre seasons diminish his value to the point where not only does his albatross contract (8 years, $160 Million) signed after the 2011 season look terrible - hes also seen himself traded twice since 2015, the last trade to the Atlanta Braves is widely viewed as a "bad contract swap."
 
That being said, its not all doom and gloom with Kemp. Since leaving the Dodgers in 2015, Kemp has put up decent numbers, offensively anyway, for the Padres and Braves. He had 23 Home Runs for the Padres in 2015, 35 combined between the Padres and Braves in 2016 and 19 big flies for the Braves in 2017. While his OPS in those seasons is less impressive than the home run tallies (.755, .803, .781) they are hardly what most would consider poor.
 
Kemps value is diminishing for the Braves, mostly due to the lack of a DH position in the National League. Kemps UZR is not just bad - its really, really bad - to the tune of -22, -17, -14 and -9 - in the last 4 seasons. Which makes him a prime candidate for the American League.
 
The benefit Kemp would bring to the Twins could come in his ability to hit left handed pitching. His career batting average split v. LHP is .319, and would bring some balance and protection to a lineup that has struggled in that department.
 
The Braves are seen as "more willing" to trade Kemp this off season, as opposed to fellow Outfielder Nick Markakis, because of the contract situation between the two. Markakis is more affordable, and on the last year of his current contract, Kemp however still has 3 years remaining at 21.5 Million dollars annually. That said, the Dodgers are relieving the Braves of 3.5 Million annually and if they would trade him they would have to, likely, eat much of the remaining deal to get anything back in return. This could make a deal with the Twins possible, as the Twins would surely not take on the bulk of Kemps contract in any trade.
 
The Twins, on the other hand could make a good trade partner if they chose to pursue Kemp. While the Braves would prefer to win sooner rather than later in their new ballpark, the team is loaded with young talent with prospects Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna primed to take the next step. Versatility could be of value to the Braves, which could give a trade centered around Eduardo Escobar some legs. He is arbitration eligible for the last time this off season, and with Miguel Sano projected to be healthy for the 2018 season, would not have a regular full time position. While giving up Escobar is probably not a popular idea, a trade of versatility for a regular, full time Designated Hitter (who could spell in a corner outfield position in a pinch) might be worth it.
The "Risky, High Upside" option - Maikel Franco

Rumblings out of the Philadelphia Phillies rumor mill is they may be looking to move on from Maikel Franco. The once highly touted prospect in the Phillies organization has had less than impressive results through his first three Major League seasons, hitting just .230 for the Phils last season.
 
However, Franco is incredibly dependable as an everyday player and has played 152 and 154 games in the last 2 seasons. With the uncertainty of Miguel Sano at 3B - considering the possibility of a titanium rod in his leg still looming - Franco would be able to provide some option for playing time at the hot corner with a carousel of Sano, Franco and (probably) Mauer circulating to keep fresh and healthy.
 
Franco has the potential to be a bopper. Hes hit 25 and 24 Home Runs in successive seasons with the Phils, and would likely strike some fear into opposing pitcher if he can get things going. With Franco's trade value fairly low, it may be possible to get him for a song this offseason, especially if the Phillies decide to switch gears and pursue Mike Moustakis in free agency. Franco, in that scenario, would be displaced from 3B and has no secondary position with both Tommy Joseph and the arrival of phenom Rhys Hoskins logjamming 1B.
 
But - there is a problem for the Twins. He doesn't hit left handed pitching. Like, at all. His career mark of .232 with 20 career Home Runs is a little more forgiving than the .209 and 7 HR mark he displayed in 2017. The Twins would have to believe there is more versatility in a Franco trade than purely a right handed bat, and hope to cure some of the woes against lefties. For context, though, for anyone who thinks a trade for Franco is that silly - Kennys Vargas line against left handed pitching in 2017 - .185 BA with 1 HR. Franco would still constitute an upgrade with positional flexibility at 1B/3B.
 
The selling point for the Twins would be the fact that Franco's trade value being as low as it appears, they may not have to give any top prospects in exchange for the struggling 3rd Baseman's services.

The "Pie in the Sky" Option - Khris Davis

OK, before you completely dismiss this out of hand, here me out. Khris Davis has done nothing but mash for several years, hitting 27, 42 and 43 Home Runs - respectively - the last 3 years between Milwaukee and Oakland. Though there isn't much trade talk surrounding Davis, per se, it certainly wouldn't be beyond the Athletics to part with a premier player for the right package of prospects. In fact, Davis himself said in an interview that he considers his time with the A's as a "year to year" proposition. He is set, in arbitration this off season, to make an estimated 11.1 Million. Billy Beane has discussed in interviews the possibility of locking up "core pieces", though he did not mention Davis specifically. Conjecture, but with emerging stars in Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton - Davis may be the piece that goes.
 
All thing considered, a trade for Davis would not come cheap and you could expect heavy counter-bidding by other teams for his services. It would likely mean parting with at least one of the Twins top prospects plus a few other mid-tier prospects - minimum - to land Davis.
 
The benefit for the Twins would not only be the slugging First Basemans bat, however. He is 29 years old, and if the Twins believe they could get a "sign and trade"-type deal done with the Athletics for Davis, they could have a built in replacement for the inevitable departure of Joe Mauer in the next year or two. Those are, admittedly, MONSTER "if's". This is the "Pie in the Sky" option, after all.
 
I'd like to continue this series with relief pitching and a starting pitching segment. If you enjoyed this piece, please read my prior blog article on free agent relievers - which I will also be adding to in series.
 
 
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With just a few games left in the 2017 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins fate is all but decided. Paul Molitor's group is going to represent the AL Central in the Wild Card game, and it appears they'll take on the Evil Empire of the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Knowing this organization is coming off 103 losses a year ago, it's somewhat astounding to look at how we arrived here.
 
Not needing too much of a deep dive into the analytical side of things, this Twins club has plenty of eye-popping numbers at its disposal. Whether looking at snapshots of the season that has been, or taking a top down view from the entire 162, it's hard not to be impressed. Here's a handful of numbers that will threaten the safety of your jaw:

82 wins (and counting)- Coming off 103 losses, the Twins already have a turnaround of 23 games. That's tied for the best turnaround in club history (a 1965 team that lost in the World Series), and is almost certainly a number that will be added to across the final six games of the year. With an over/under set in Vegas at 74.5 prior to the season, Minnesota surpassed that mark with 18 games to spare.
+96 run differential- Through August and September (up until the 25th), Minnesota has completely flipped the script in the run scoring department. At a -72 run differential on August 1st, the Twins have ripped off two of their best hitting months of the year. Outscoring opponents by nearly 100 runs across their last 53 games, the club now owns a Pythagorean W/L that sits at 80-76 (a mark unfathomable even a few weeks ago).
92.1%- The total jump in percentage that the Minnesota Twins playoff odds have taken since August 1st. Forced to decide their fate prior to the trade deadline, the Twins had just a 5.6% chance on July 31st. At 50-53, they were 4.5 games back in the AL Wild Card. In needing to make a decision, the club flipped closer Brandon Kintzler and rental starter Jaime Garcia, for some solid future pieces. Today their playoff odds rest at 97.7%.
199 home runs- With their next longball, the Twins will surpass the 200 HR plateau. Having done so in back-to-back seasons, they'll have accomplished that feat for the first time since the 1963/64 seasons. As of August 29, they were on pace for just 197. Right now, four players have at least 20 homers, which is the first time Minnesota has reached that mark since 2009. If Max Kepler can add one more, the Twins will have five 20 HR players for the first time since 1986.
96.4% Stolen Base efficiency- Byron Buxton has stolen 27 of the 28 bases he's attempted to swipe this year. The one in which he was thrown out, he overslid the base. At the time of his 24th steal, I checked into his efficiency. Since 1946, 1,483 players had stolen at least 24 bases in a season. Only five had been thrown out just once. Now 27 of 28, that group has gotten even smaller.
Multi-position Gold Glove Winner- At the conclusion of 2017, Joe Mauer will look to join Placido Polanco and Darin Erstad as the only players to win Gold Glove awards at multiple positions. He'll be the first to do so at catcher and first base. Currently, Mauer ranks 1st among AL first basemen in UZR, UZR/150, and RngR. His 5 DRS checks in third. While teammate Byron Buxton is a guarantee to win the Gold Glove in CF, it would be a major upset if Mauer didn't take the award at 1B.
24 DRS- In 2017, Buxton's current 24 defensive runs saved are the highest number by any Twins outfielder since tracking began in the early 2000s. Denard Span posted a 19 DRS mark in 2012, and Torii Hunter's high water mark was 18 DRS in 2004. Despite scuffling at the plate, Buxton has been a game changer all season in the Minnesota outfield.
Five- That's the amount of regular position players that the Twins have in their every day lineup age 25 and younger. Over half of their regular order has yet to reach a level where they would be considered and established big league veteran. Jose Berrios and Adalberto Mejia fall into this category on the pitching side. With prime's still in the future, there's plenty of reason to believe we've yet to see the best of what's to come.

No matter how 2017 ends, and how far into October this club gets, looking back on what's been a fun year should provide plenty of excitement for what's ahead. Meaningful baseball was played for virtually the entire 162 game slate, and down the stretch, Minnesota has been appointment viewing. This club is trending in an upward direction, and among a division that has plenty of holes, that should put the rest of the league on notice.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

I went back to a January 18, 2017 blog by Brandon Warne in which he predicted the Twins would win 80 games and asked readers to comment and make their own predictions. The blog was eight pages long but by page five, the predictions stopped and the criticisms of the team began. Most of the negative comments were about how horrible the Twins defense would by in 2017, especially at third base with Miguel Sano~. Here is a summary of the predictions that I found:
 
Brandon Warne: 80
Wsnydes: 70-75
PseudoSABR: 70s
Tom Froemming: high 60s
Mazeville: 80+
Jimmer: low 70s
Diehardtwinsfan: 80 at best
Halsey Hall: 75-80
Jandersh: 70
Einstein1: less than 70
Han Joelo: 75
Platoon: 73-75
wiesbadenDAN: 75
beckmt: 75-80
nytwinsfan: 75
Doomtints: 70
DocBauer: 70-75
Brock Beauchamp: they will spend the entire year under .500
Bk432: 75
Oldgoat_MN: 70-75
 
Only two people (10%) predicted at least 80 wins and only three others (15%) said 80 was an outside possibility if all the stars aligned. Simple math tells us that 75% of Twins Daily posters on this blog blew it.

What a HUGE game! Have any or our pitchers pitched 4 straight great? Ervin? This was a big, big game for Twins,
 
How about Polanco? Where would we be without him?
 
AWESOME!

I love the pick! This is the type of player that a number one pick should be, a Buxton type talent that can grow into a super star. BRAVO!

In the past few days, the Minnesota Twins have made more than a few roster shakeups. With Nick Tepesch hanging out on the 25 man roster waiting for his first big league start since 2016, the club also sent Danny Santana and Michael Tonkin packing. While those moves each have implications of their own, it's the corresponding moves that are telling for this club. To separate from what was, the organization must begin to do things differently.
 
Starting Tepesch against the Boston Red Sox during a weekend series, the Twins decided that Jose Berrios wasn't quite ready for the big leagues in 2017. Despite owning a 1.09 ERA .157 BAA and 9.5 K/9 with a 2.2 BB/9 in 33 innings prior to the tilt with Boston, Minnesota apparently needed more. Instead, Tepesch was sent out, having not worked since April 20, and having not been a real big league starter since 2014. The results don't justify the question, although Tepesch lasted just 1.2 IP, but it was a curious move at the time.
 
With Berrios, the idea has always been that he needed to work on more than just surface level production. Given that he's all but dominated the Triple-A level, pitch economy as well as command was always going to be the areas he needed to hone in on. However, it would appear that it's something he's done well to grasp this season, and could be a real asset to the Twins starting rotation.
 
Sticking with pitching, Minnesota DFA'd Michael Tonkin. In doing so, they opened up a 40 man roster spot, and chose to go with veteran reliever Drew Rucinski. At 28, Rucinski hadn't pitched in the big leagues since 2015, and had totaled just 14.1 IP at the highest level in his career. Across 277.2 IP at Triple-A, Rucinski had compiled a lackluster 5.74 ERA, hardly worth getting excited about. Despite Minnesota not having top arms like Mason Melotakis or Nick Burdi at Triple-A, they passed over names such as Trevor Hildenberger, D.J. Baxendale, or Aaron Slegers, who are in Rochester.
 
Not unexpectedly, Rucinski didn't fool many big league hitters, and gave up two runs on five hits over 3.1 IP in his Twins debut. It wasn't disastrous, but there's little reason to believe that the water level is much higher there. Given the fact he was added to the 40 man roster for that level of production, you'd hope the club could do more.
 
Rounding out the trio of moves was the expected DFA of Danny Santana. Much to the chagrin of Paul Molitor, Santana always seemed destined to be moved as soon as offseason acquisition Ehire Adrianza was healthy. As that came to fruition, the move was made, and Santana can now be had by any team in the big leagues.
 
Adrianza presents a clear upgrade with the glove, although he doesn't hit. That's probably a net positive over Santana, who couldn't field or hit, but Ehire is a weird peg for this club. Given Eduardo Escobar's role as the utility man for this team, watching the two coexist is somewhat of a puzzling ask. While Escobar doesn't possess a glove to the same capability, he's arguably the superior player, and Minnesota could definitely be better off with a more focused hitter off the bench (namely a right-handed bat).
 
What we can summarize though from the moves the Twins initially made, is a very real hope that this club isn't done. Drew Rucinski doesn't do much for a big league club, and Nick Tepesch seems all but washed out as well. Adrianza has value, but less so to this club, and the organization needs to work through a more ideal fit. These moves really signify the shuffling of deck chairs, and there's not much advancement made in any of the callups.
 
If the Twins are going to differentiate themselves from the previous regime, it's going to take place in raising the water level. Gone must be the days of replacing mediocrity with more mediocrity. Players like Jose Berrios don't grow on tress, but there's higher level talent on the farm than the likes of a Rucinski or Tepesch type, and giving those guys run is what needs to be seen.
 
As things stand now, I'd view (and hope) some of these moves as very short term or temporary. Given that notion, it's hard to be too up in arms about them currently. However, the shift towards more talent absolutely must take place. Minnesota can't continue to cycle in the same types of players and think change is going to come. Restack the deck and give yourself more opportunity, rather than simply reshuffling it and hoping that the cards fall differently.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

April 30, 1961
Killebrew’s First HR as a Twin


 
Trailing the White Sox 5-2 in the bottom of the 11th in Bloomington, Harmon Killebrew hit his first home run in a Twins uniform. The White Sox held on to win 5-3 with Bob Shaw pitching all 11 innings.
 
All told Harmon Killebrew would hit 573 home runs, fifth-most in baseball history at the time he retired, and still 11th all-time as of 2016. He hit 84 home runs as a member of the Washington Senators, 475 in a Twins uniform, and 14 as a Kansas City Royal in 1975.
 




 

May 1, 1996
Twins Win on Paul Molitor Walk-Off Hit-By-Pitch


 
The Twins held a 5-3 lead vs. Kansas City heading into the top of the ninth when 1994 AL Rookie of the Year Bob Hamelin hit a two-run home run off of Dave Stevens to tie the game. Hamelin had also homered in the second, both times with Jose Offerman aboard. Royals all-time saves leader Jeff Montgomery set the Twins down in order in the bottom of the ninth. His second inning of relief did not go so smoothly, however. After popping Pat Meares up for the first out, Montgomery walked Rich Becker and Chuck Knoblauch. A single by Chip Hale loaded the bases for the future-Hall of Famer Paul Molitor who Montgomery beaned, forcing in the winning run.
 




 

May 1, 2005
Johan Santana Loses for First Time in 20 Starts


 
Johan Santana pitched eight strong innings versus the Angels at the Dome, allowing only two runs on two hits, solo home runs by Vladimir Guerrero and Jose Molina. Bartolo Colon, however, held the Twins scoreless, allowing only two hits through 7 ⅓ innings. Shannon Stewart drove in the Twins only run with a solo home run off Francisco Rodriguez in the ninth.
 
Santana had gone 17-0 in his last 20 starts going back to his 2004 Cy Young-winning season. He would go 16-7 in 2005 and finish third in Cy Young balloting. He won the award again in 2006 when he and the Yankees’ Chien-Ming Wang tied for the major league lead with 19 wins.
 

May 1, 2009
Joe Mauer Homers in First At-Bat Back from Disabled List


 
After missing the first 22 games of the season with a lower back injury, Joe Mauer homered in his first at-bat back from the disabled list. Playing Kansas City at the Metrodome, Mauer came up with two down in the first. After taking Sidney Ponson’s first two pitches, Mauer deposited his 2-0 offering in the left-center field seats.
 
Mauer led-off the fourth inning with an opposite field double and scored on a Justin Morneau single up the middle. Mauer walked in the fifth and scored on Morneau’s sixth home run of the season. He finished the day 2-for-3 with a walk and three runs scored as the Twins beat the Royals 7-5.
 
Mauer went on to hit 11 home runs and drive in 32 runs in the month of May en route to his third batting title and being named the 2009 American League MVP. The Twins won the Central Division in ‘09 with a dramatic 12th inning walk-off win in Game 163 vs. Detroit, but were swept by the Yankees in the first round of the playoffs.
 

May 2, 1963
Twins Trade Jack Kralick for Jim Perry


 
The Twins traded pitcher Jack Kralick, who had come with the team from Washington, to the Cleveland ballclub for Jim Perry. Kralick pitched the Twins’ first no-hitter the previous season, on August 26, 1962. Kralick lost the perfect game by giving up a walk with one out in the ninth of the Twins’ 1-0 win over the Kansas City Athletics. The final two outs were recorded on foul pop flies. Though the Twins’ first season in Minnesota (1961) was probably Kralick’ best, he did garner his lone All-Star selection with Cleveland in 1964.
 
Perry’s career had gotten off to a hot start in Cleveland. In 1959 he was runner-up to the Senators’ Bob Allison for American League Rookie of the Year. He tied with Baltimore’s Chuck Estrada for the American League lead with 18 wins in 1960, and made his first All-Star team in 1961.
 
During Perry’s first five seasons with the Twins he was used both as a starter and relief pitcher, including the ninth inning of Game 7 of the 1965 World Series. In 1969 he started 36 of the 46 games he appeared in, winning 20 as the Twins won the American League West pennant. Perry won the Cy Young Award in 1970, his first season in Minnesota in which he was used exclusively as a starter, and tied for the league lead with 24 wins as the Twins again won the West.
 
Perry played ten seasons in Minnesota. He is fifth in Twins history in both wins (128) and innings pitched. In 2011 Perry became the sixteenth player inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame.
 

May 2, 1964



Twins Hit Four Consecutive Home Runs


 
Tony Oliva gave the Twins a 2-0 lead vs. the Athletics in Kansas City with a third inning home run. The teams were tied 2-2 entering the top of the ninth when Harmon Killebrew hit a solo home run to put the Twins in front. Rocky Colavito, however, tied it up in the bottom of the inning, singling in Ed Charles. The A’s came perilously close to the walk-off win. After Colavito advanced to second on a passed ball, the Twins filled first with an intentional walk. Both runners moved up on a groundout to the pitcher, the second out of the inning. The Twins then issued a second intentional walk, loading the bases. Manager Sam Mele then brought Bill Pleis. With zero margin for error, Pleis struck out his man, forcing extra innings.
 
Neither team threatened to score in the tenth. Then Tony Oliva led off the top of the eleventh with a home run, followed by Bob Allison and Jimmie Hall. Kansas City then went to the bullpen, but to no avail, as Harmon Killebrew made in four in a row and the Twins beat Kansas City 7-3.
 
Seven teams in the history of Major League baseball have hit four consecutive home runs, most recently the Diamondbacks in 2010. The last American League team to do so was the White Sox in 2008 when Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Alexei Ramirez and Juan Uribe went back-to-back-to-back-to-back.
 
This wasn’t the only time the Twins made home run history against the Kansas City Athletics. The Twins set an American League record by hitting five home runs in a single inning on June 9, 1966 against KC at the Met in Bloomington. The Athletics erupted for four runs in the first off Camilo Pascual, who only lasted ⅔ of an inning. Facing 1987 Hall of Fame inductee, Catfish Hunter, the Twins pulled within 4-3 on a Bob Allison RBI double in the fifth and a two-run Killebrew homer in the sixth. Then, in the bottom of the seventh, Rich Rollins and Zoilo Versalles connected for back-to-back home runs off of Hunter to take the lead. Reliever Paul Lindblad retired Sandy Valdespino before allowing back-to-back homers to Tony Oliva and Don Mincher. The Athletics then turned to John Wyatt who allowed the Twins’ third consecutive home run, and the fifth of the inning, to Harmon Killebrew, his second of the game.
 
Four National League teams have hit five home runs in an inning. The first time was in 1939 and the most recent in 2006. All four were against the Cincinnati Reds.
 




 

May 2, 2010
Wilson Ramos Debuts with 4-Hit Game


 
22-year-old Venezuelan catcher Wilson Ramos made his major meague debut going 4-for-5 with a double and run scored in Cleveland. The following night, at home versus Detroit, Ramos went 3-for-4 with a double, becoming the third player in major league history with seven hits in his first two games, and the first since the Chicago Cubs’ Coaker Triplett in 1938.
 
Ramos played seven games for the Twins before being traded to the Washington Nationals for closer Matt Capps. The Twins would go on to win the American League Central with a 94-68 record. They were swept out of the playoffs by the New York Yankees.
 
Ramos was the second Twin to debut with a four-hit game. 24-year-old Kirby Puckett went 4-for-5 with a run scored in his major league debut on May 8, 1984 in 5-0 Twins win in Anaheim. Hitting leadoff, Kirby grounded out in his first at-bat before collecting four straight singles. Puckett was the sixth player in American League history to debut with a four-hit performance.
 
Kirby would finish third in American League Rookie of the Year balloting behind Seattle’s Alvin Davis and Mark Langston. The Twins’ Tim Teufel finished right behind Kirby in fourth place. Roger Clemens came in sixth. In the National League, future-World Series Hero Dan Gladden finished fourth behind Doc Gooden, Juan Samuel, and Orel Hershiser.
 




 

May 3, 1986
Puckett Leads Off Consecutive Games with First-Pitch Home Runs


 
Twins leadoff hitter Kirby Puckett homered on the Tigers’ Walt Terrell’s first pitch of the game. He had homered on Jack Morris’s first pitch the day before. It was already his 11th home run of the young season.
 
Morris struggled mightily in the May 2 matchup, as the Twins touched the ‘73 Highland Park grad for four runs on four hits and four walks in just 1 ⅓ innings. Even Steve Lombardozzi got in on the act, leading off the second inning with a home run. Kirby was 3-for-6 with two RBI and three runs scored in the Twins 10-1 win. 23 games into the ‘86 season, Kirby was hitting .396.
 
Tigers pitching fared better on May 3, however. In addition to Kirby’s first-pitch home run, Gary Gaetti also homered in the first, driving in Tom Brunansky. Walt Terrell recovered, though, and kept the Twins off the board until, leading 7-3 with two out in the ninth, he gave up a solo home run to Gaetti. He then struck out pinch-hitter Billy Beane to complete the 7-4 Tigers victory.
 




 

May 3, 2011
Francisco Liriano Pitches a No-Hitter


 
Francisco Liriano pitched the fifth no-hitter in Twins history on a chilly 42 degree night in Chicago, beating the White Sox 1-0. Liriano entered the game with a 1-4 record and 9.13 ERA.
 
The Twins’ only run came on a Jason Kubel home run in the fourth. Liriano was far from perfect, giving up six walks, although he did induce three ground ball double plays. Despite averaging 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings on the season, and 9.3 per nine over the course of his career, Liriano only struck out two batters in his no-hit performance. He threw 123 pitches, only 66 of which were strikes. Liriano would finish the season with a 9-10 record and 5.09 ERA. The no-hitter was Liriano’s only complete game as a Twin. He pitched two complete games for the Pirates in 2013.
 
This was the second Twins no-hitter in which six runners reached base. The first was the Twins’ first no-hitter, thrown by Dean Chance on August 25, 1967 in the second game of a doubleheader in Cleveland. Chance completed the no-hitter despite giving up an earned run. He walked the first two batters of the game and then the bases were loaded on an error by third baseman, Cesar Tovar. Chance then threw a wild pitch, giving Cleveland an early 1-0 lead. The Twins would go on to win 2-1 as Chance walked five and struck out eight. Cleveland hit into two double plays.
 

May 4, 1975
The Twins Retire Their First Number


 
Harmon Killebrew signed as a free agent with the Kansas City Royals in January, 1975. The Twins retired his number in a ceremony before the Sunday finale of their first home series against Kansas City the following season. Killebrew’s #3 was the first number retired by the Twins. Killebrew hit a two-run home run in the top of the first. The Twins went on to win 6-3.
 
Minnesota natives Dave Goltz and Tom Burgmeier picked up the win and the save in the first game of the series. Killebrew sat out game two in which Bert Blyleven earned a complete game victory.
 




 

May 5, 1882
Lee Quillen Born in North Branch


 
It’s the birthdate of former major league infielder Lee Quillen, born 135 years ago in North Branch, MN. Quillen played four games (three at shortstop) for the eventual 1906 World Series Champion Chicago White Sox. He hit .192 in 49 games as Chicago’s backup third baseman in 1907.
 
Quillen passed away in 1965 at the age of 83. He is buried at Oakland Cemetery in St. Paul.
 




 

May 5, 1884



Charles Albert Bender Born in Crow Wing County


 
It's the birthdate of the first Minnesotan Hall of Famer, Albert "Chief" Bender, who was elected in 1953.
 




 

May 5
Happy 70th Birthday to Larry Hisle


 
It’s the birthday of Larry Hisle, born in Portsmouth, Ohio in 1942. The 14-year major leaguer played five seasons for the Twins, from 1973 to ‘77 when he hit .302 with 28 home runs and an American League-leading 119 RBI.
 
Hisle made Twins history twice in June, 1976. First, on June 4, he hit for the third cycle in Twins history. Then, on June 30, he stole a team record four bases. Lyman Bostock, incidentally, hit for the cycle on July 24, 1976.
 
Hisle was the hitting coach for the back-to-back World Series champion Toronto Blue Jays in 1992 and ‘93. In ‘93 the Blue Jays’ John Olerud, Paul Molitor and Roberto Alomar had the first, second and third best batting averages in the American League.
 
In 2010, Fox Sports North included Hisle among their “50 Greatest Twins.” He is currently the Milwaukee Brewers’ Manager of Youth Outreach.
 




 

May 5, 2001



LaTroy Hawkins Blows First Save After Record Streak


 
On a Saturday night in Kansas City, the first place (20-8) Twins handed LaTroy Hawkins a 10-8 lead in the bottom of the ninth. Hawkins had converted the first 23 save opportunities of his career, an MLB record. After pulling within a run on a sacrifice fly, however, former Twin David McCarty tied the game with a two-out, line drive single to center, scoring Jermaine Dye. With McCarty aboard in the twelfth, Royals outfielder Dee Brown hit a walk-off home run off of Travis Miller.
 




 

May 6, 2015



Eddie Rosario Homers on First MLB Pitch


 
Leading off the bottom of the third against Oakland’s Scott Kazmir at Target Field, Eddie Rosario hit the first pitch he saw in the Major Leagues for an opposite field home run. He was hitless in three subsequent at-bats. The Twins went on to beat Oakland 13-0.
 
Six Twins have homered in their first Major League at-bat: Rick Renick, Dave McKay, Gary Gaetti, Andre David, Luke Hughes and Rosario. Fifteen players in the history of Major League Baseball have homered on their first big league pitch. In 2010, Boston’s Daniel Nava hit a grand slam on his first Major League pitch. In 1981, in the span of less than a month, Kent Hrbek, Tim Laudner and Gary Gaetti each homered in their first Major League game.
 
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I have some cousins that live in a house with a large unfinished basement. They moved to this house from one that was considerably larger, not so much in an effort to downsize, but more to find a residence that was more affordable. The problem with this was my Aunt is a longtime suffer of “I might still need that syndrome.” She will fully deny it, but it is a debilitating illness that has hampered the functionality of said basement, and more obscurely, her lifestyle in general. She attaches fond memories with items that were once a mainstay in her life, and because of those memories, has an intense affinity with holding on to them. I fear that my Aunt and the Pohlads suffer from the same affliction.
 
When Terry Ryan was fired last season many of us hoped for the “clean house” take when rebuilding the front office. We hoped that names like Rob Antony, Deron Johnson, and (maybe this one is just me) Jack Goin would be sending resumes to other organizations or maybe jumping into a different line of work all together. We hoped that with the hiring of Derek Falvey and Thad Lavine would come a new era of analytics in Twins baseball that would return us to glory days of being hated by the White Sox for our piranha-esk qualities and our “right way” idealistic of how a baseball team should be run. Many of us were disappointed.
 
But what I failed to see at the time is that the Pohlads have this pack-rat nature that was not quite blatantly obvious. Like my aunt, they have fond memories associated with some of these people and hold to the ideas that what we once found so useful could be just as useful once again. With a younger and more Beane-like view on baseball, I find this shortsighted.
 
Personally, I am not a pack-rat. I throw things away hoping that they will never be needed again, sometimes to my down fall. I risk that chance because I am a firm believer that the future holds greater value than the past, and to fully harness that value, we need to embrace it. Enter, the duo that some of us affectionately call, Falvine.
Falvine is like showing your aunt a Property Brothers-esk rendering of what her basement could be like. They are the people that will hopefully update this franchise to its full potential, restoring it to the glory days that the Pohlads are so desperately holding on to. But the two different factions disagree with how to do that.
 
The most effective way to clean out my begrudgingly stubborn aunt’s basement is to send her on a week’s vacation and make executive decisions on what to keep and what to sentence to the landfill (or send her away for two weeks and find out how to properly recycle everything…). Falvine does not have this option available to them.
The other way to clean the basement is to introduce new things, to slowly change the functionality, until my aunt realizes that her old items are no longer useful and the pipedream of them once again becoming mainstays in her life is unrealistic. This is what Falvine is doing.
 
Many of us were disheartened by the roster that the Twins appear to be headed north with. Danny Santana on the bench, Mauer (love the guy to death by the way and will always be my favorite player) appearing to be slated for 162 starts. Hughes and Santiago in the rotation. 13 pitchers because of the mortal fear that the aforementioned starters will have a hard time completing more than 3 1/3 innings. I believe that these are all carefully calculated decisions that Falvine has made to show the Pohlads that the way the Twins of a decade ago were so successful is no longer sustainable. It is their way to slowly normalize to the Pohlads that Falvine’s way of doing things is the way of the future.
 
None of us realistically expected this team to compete for a championship, a pennant, a division title or heck, even a winning record, this season. To me that makes this way of doing things justified. Because in a few short years, many of us hope to be talking about who will be the pinch runner when we get a man on first in a tied game 3 of the ALCS. And when we have that conversation, I want Carl Pohlad’s opinion as far from the realm of consideration as possible.

Greetings from sunny Florida! I'm lucky enough to be in Ft Myers for a week during Spring Training.
 
Today I spent the day mainly on the back fields, watching the minor league prospects. Normally I call these reports Hammond Notes (I must have been under the impression everyone remembers Hammond Organs when I thunk up that one), but Hammond is strictly speaking the major league field here, and it would be clunky to title today's entry CenturyLink Sports Complex Notes. The photo here is of all the dummies watching the major leaguers take batting practice - they don't know what they are missing!
 
I arrived at the crack of dawn, namely 9:30 am, in time to see the players begin their warmup calisthenics. It being the day of a major league game, CenturyLink Sports Complex was charging $10 for parking. Note to anyone intending to follow a plan like mine: in-and-out privileges are not included when you pay to park, and there is no food service outside the main ballpark so bring a lunch (there is a water fountain by the bathroom at the center of the back fields) or else prepare to pay twice for parking - plus it's hard driving out when they're letting everyone else in. Tomorrow and Thursday are away games, so I can get in for free unless I am misremembering protocol.
 

 
The day's drills were enjoyable to watch, and not especially stressful looking for the players either. Pitchers worked on fielding comebackers on Field 5. While nobody embarrassed himself, and there were a few good snags of the balls coming out of the repurposed pitching machine, I didn't spot any budding shortstops in the group either. Here's Lewis Thorpe giving it a try - notice how he keeps the meat hand (AKA moneymaker) safely out of the way. Notice also my skillful use of the camera's autofocus, bringing into crisp view the mesh of the decorative yet functional chain link fence.
 

 
Later, on Field 3, a group of players practiced specialized situations, such as the pitcher covering third on an extra-base hit by a lefthanded pull-hitter against an extreme shift (seriously). It seemed to me there was a lot of dead time in this, where the coach in charge would stop to talk to a small group of players, and the others, far out of earshot, would just be standing around. Maybe this is optimal - I'm not a coach or anything. During this idle time, I spotted catchers Dan Rohlfing, Karim Kevin**** Garcia, and one I wasn't able to deduce even using my vast sleuthing skills, practicing the art of tossing a baseball into the air and catching it in the mesh of their mask. I am confident this important skill will be the deciding factor in Game 7 of the World Series, some year very soon. It's the new Framing.
 

 
Closer to game time, I ventured again to the front of the CenturyLink Sports Complex and met up briefly with ChiTownTwinsFan, who was attending the major league game with family. We'll share a game or three later this week with others who are arriving.
 
After a spartan lunch (which, did I mention, I thought to bring) and a nap resting my eyes while lying down on the metal bleachers in the shade for 5 minutes, 10 minutes tops, I watched the two games against Tampa Bay Rays prospects, which began around 1 pm. Nominal AAA and AA squads were represented, and in the AAA game both teams used 40-man pitchers as their starters. I should tell you at the outset that I switched attention between the two games and did not keep an actual scoresheet for either one, and moreover I have no idea who "won" either contest - I merely took notes of what I thought to be interesting.
 
Matt Belisle went a couple of innings for the Twins and pitched pretty well.
 

 
He was aided by a very fine shoestring catch by Zach Granite in center on the first pitch. Pro tip: call him Granny, like some of his teammates and/or coaches do. Niko Goodrum, playing shortstop, also contributed a nice play in the first, to his right on a ball just out of third baseman's reach - I wrote the latter's name down as Ganache but I can't locate such a player now at my computer. Later on in the AAA game, there was a very nice play by Engelb Vielma at second base, coming in on the ball and making it look easy, to get the batter by a step. All in all, the defense looked good, every time my attention was focused on Field 3.
 
Two-year major-league veteran Matt Andriese of the Rays didn't fare as well. As I said, I didn't keep a scoresheet, but my impression was that he gave up lots of base hits and plenty of runs. In the first, Goodrum doubled to right field (in this game he was making good contact each time I looked), Dan Palka followed with a two-strike opposite field RBI single to left that I overheard someone on the bench call a "nice piece of hitting", and then Mitch Garver followed with a homer to left center.
 

 
On Field 4, the Twins also had a major league reliever serve as starter. I didn't see a lot of Kintzler's work, but a comment from a fellow fan led me to think he wasn't especially effective. I guess we'll all form our own opinions from that tidbit, according to our individual prejudices.
 
Edgar Corcino botched a flyball in left field, and someone brought him a pair of sunglasses in time for the next pitch - oops, Kangaroo Kourt fine, shall we say? Fernando Romero pitched next, and I thought he got cuffed about quite a bit. However toward the end of his first inning he started throwing heat more visibly, and the results improved. But then, he dropped a comebacker to the mound. (I don't recall whether he was in the group practicing that in the morning.) They ended the inning early after that, which sometimes is the custom on the minor league fields, and I thought that meant he was done for the day, but he pitched the next inning, and again was effective. Maybe the Rays had batted around, and the ground rules say that's enough - hey, let the other kids have a turn, willya?
 
Back on Field 3, I saw Vielma have a rough day at the plate, which of course has been the question mark about him as a high-end prospect we want him to become. He's one of the guys I wanted to scrutinze at the plate on this visit, and I am encouraged compared to my expectations that he might swing like Pedro Florimon. No, he "has a notion up there" at the plate - he's not clueless. But, he's also a bit overmatched, particularly on pitches in the upper half of the strike zone, as he tends to swing right through them with disturbing frequency, at least on this day. Being unable to hit certain strikes would not be a good thing in the majors. (He'll also chase, on pitches higher than that, but that seems more correctable.) At least, I didn't see Buxton's Syndrome, namely being unable to recognize off-speed pitches in the dirt, so that's a mild positive. I hope his batting coach can teach him to figure out a few things this year - maybe this ugly photo will help.
 

 
Turning back to the AA game, Randy Rosario showed a good fastball but only so-so control.
 

 
John Curtiss, by contrast, looked very much in control of his good fastball, and seems poised to build at AA upon his successful 2016.
 

 
Minor league free agent utility player (OF, 3B) Tom Belza really got ahold of a pitch late in the game for a 3-run jack. He's not a guy with stellar power numbers in the past, but if he's ready to put things together maybe he can get his cup of coffee or perhaps even a little more - he's someone I'll keep an eye on just for fun, now that he has forced me to pay attention to him. On the other hand, shortly after his homer, he got spun around fielding a hot smash at third base, costing him just enough time to fail to retire the batter, so my snap assessment is he'll remain a longshot.
 
In the AAA game, relief prospect Trevor Hildenberger made easy work of the Rays batters in the final inning. He has what looks like nasty stuff from a variety of angles.
 
In the AA game (are you getting whiplash yet? that's my intention, as it mimics the fun of watching two games on adjacent fields), Nick Gordon got a ground rule* double to left, followed by a long double to center by recent minor league signing Josh Romanski - another promising event today for a long-shot athlete in his prime. You Never Know. Here's Gordon, probably not on the pitch he doubled on.
 

 
An interesting sidelight, at least for me: at the end of his inning of work, Rays prospect pitcher Jairo Munoz came off the field cursing, presumably at himself for the hits against him. Longtime Rays coach R.C. Lichtenstein, who was monitoring the game outside the fence, made a beeline toward the entrance to the dugout. Being a nosy type of person, I trailed him and listened in. He didn't castigate the pitcher for the outburst and instead gave him a pep talk, focusing on some good things that happened on the mound and what he might do differently. I had noticed this coach the last time I was in Ft Myers - he seems like a really good asset to the team, although of course I have little insight into what truly separates one coach from another.
 
Speaking of coaches, Rick ("Brother of David") Eckstein was there in a Twins uniform. I had not noticed the news of his being added. If he were not in uniform, you would never guess he was anything but "just some guy". I bet he gets that a lot. **
 
Anyway, Nick Burdi finished up the AA game, and while I didn't see any real magic, he had a good inning. In the bottom of that inning, Levi Michael got hit in the ribs by a pitch, and he yelped as soon as the ball touched him. Me, it takes several seconds before I know whether I'm hurt. But he was OK, at least to the extent of being able to run the bases normally.
 
WIth the AA game completed, I turned back for the finish of the AAA game. Kyle Winkler closed out the game for the Rays, and though he's a little long in the tooth (26) for a prospect, I was fooled into thinking he might be something better, because he mowed down Palka and then ended the game by making Garver fail to check his swing.
 
Here is a Rays trainer inflicting rotator-cuff damage on a prospect who missed curfew. When will the hazing of rookies cease? The padded table looked comfy, though, and I considered asking whether he accepted walk-ins for theraputic massage.
 

 
After the game, I watched Granite Granny stop to sign an autograph for possibly the politest kid I ever met. And then I saw the Rays' Andrew Velazquez sign for a Rays fan, causing me to wonder if he is a big-time prospect. Um, nope, at least not according to Sickels - guess the kid just had a personal rooting interest.
 
And with that, I'm off to sample the culinary delicacies that Ft Myers is famous for. Wait, what? Is that a thing?***
 
*I know that a ball that bounces over the fence isn't technically part of the ground rules, it's just a baseball rule. It's what we call it, OK?
 
** His brother was a major league veteran - a fringe star even - and like his brother, Rick is way way short.
 
*** Pinchers Crab Shack turned out to have pretty good grouper.
 
**** H/T to Seth Stohs for the correction

Having spent time at spring training down in Fort Myers last week, the Twins came off with a process that looked poised to process better results. 2017 has been looking like a season in which Minnesota could turn the page from an ugly 103 loss a season ago. Then, upon returning to Minnesota, the news that Trevor May's season would now be over had hit. What happens now?
 
After looking back through some of my tweets from Minnesota's exhibition against Team USA, it seems I had been aware of what really was unknown. Sitting around 95 mph on his fastball at the start of the game, May's velocity dipped to 91-92 mph in short order. It was later revealed that in a pitch midway through his outing, he blew out his UCL. Now destined for Tommy John surgery, the Twins must pick up the pieces and ask themselves what's next.
 
I had Trevor May penciled in as the team's fifth starter. He wasn't going back to the bullpen with his back issues, and he offered legitimate upside in the rotation. While that now isn't going to happen, the list of candidates to take his place is long. Everyone from Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, and Justin Haley to Ryan Vogelsong, Tyler Duffey, and Nick Tepesch should be in play. For Molitor's squad though, I think the narrative is less about the next man up than it is the men already involved.
 
There has long been little doubt that Phil Hughes, Hector Santiago, or Kyle Gibson would be in the Twins Opening Day rotation. Each of those three was a lock, and they'd be joining Opening Day starter Ervin Santana. What becomes integral now is that the trio elevate themselves to pick up the slack.
 
First and foremost, Hughes has to show his injury is behind him. Over the course of the spring, a lot had been made of Hughes' velocity, and for good reason. After undergoing Thoracic Outlet surgery, he's seen a visible decline in the speed of his fastball. For a guy that doesn't blow batters away, losing any competitive advantage isn't ideal.
 
Last season, Hughes turned in just 59 innings before ending his season. He had already given up 11 homers, after surrendering a league worst 29 the season before, and his walk rate had doubled (but still respectable at 2.0 BB/9). Hughes hasn't given Minnesota more than 5.4 K/9 since his incredibly debut season, and he'll need to be better than his low water mark this time around. Minnesota isn't going to bank on him to be that Cy Young type pitcher he was in 2014, but he must have an ERA right under 4.00 and strike out at least six per nine. It's a big ask for a guy with a lot of question marks, but the Twins can't have him do less now.
 
That brings us to Hector Santiago, who's done little to put himself in good graces since getting to Minnesota. The Twins are paying him virtually the same $12 million that Ricky Nolasco took up, and his numbers haven't been heartwarming. After coming over from Los Angeles last season, Santiago owned a 5.58 ERA and gave up 13 long balls (to total 33 on the year).
 
The addition of Jason Castro should help Santiago. Kurt Suzuki wasn't going to do him favors behind the dish, and a pitcher who has given up 62 homers since 2015 needs every advantage he can muster. Again, the Twins won't be counting on the 2015 All Star version of the former Angels pitcher, but they need him to pitch like he deserves to be in the rotation as opposed to an arbitration casualty.
 
Finally, the biggest boost from the group could come from home grown Kyle Gibson. The former first round pick has been a breakout candidate for the past two years now, and it just hasn't come together. After an exciting 2015, Gibson took a big step back in 2016, and that needs to reverse its course. Despite owning a 5.07 ERA last season, it was the 4.70 FIP that did him in. Owning strikeout and walk totals in line with his career norms, Gibson wasn't doing himself any favors with an already shaky defense.
 
Molitor's sinkerballer needs to put himself in good situations and capitalize on them. Through early spring action, he's arguably looked the best of all Twins starters, and while results aren't much to get hung up on, his process and efficiency have been notable as well. If Gibson can emerge as the ace of the Twins staff, and take the reigns from Ervin Santana, the rotation group will be elevated beyond what the loss of May likely is.
 
At the end of the day, Minnesota not having Trevor May in the rotation to begin the year is an unfortunate development. No matter who fills his shoes however, it's going to be on the cast of the already assumed starters that will need to pick up the slack. What kind of upside Minnesota's 5th starter possesses was always going to be a wild card, but the margin for error is now markedly smaller.
 
Time to see who can pick their teammate up.
 
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The Minnesota Twins have now played a handful of games this spring, and with the calendar quickly approaching the middle of March, players will be cut and reassigned to minor league camp shortly. For Paul Molitor's club, squeaking out extra wins on a roster looking to rebound from a tough 2016 is going to be an absolute must. I'm not so convinced there aren't a few surprises in store as to how the bench is constructed.
 
Arguably the most predictable scenario, or at least the one causing the least amount of change, would include a bench of John Ryan Murphy, Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Escobar, and Danny Santana. If the Twins go that route, they'd be looking to make as few waves as possible, and it's probably the safest bet as well. Although the ceiling for each player isn't high at all, the floor also isn't disastrous for the most part.
 
Getting creative though, there's a real situation in which none, or almost none, of those players go north with the Twins this spring. If Minnesota looks for upside, and some fresh talent, there's a surprise group of four players that could join together. Here's what that may look like:
 
Mitch Garver- Backup Catcher
 
Garver owned a ,764 OPS between Double and Triple-A in 2016. It was a nice offensive showing, and his defense was spectacular. He threw out 52% of would be base stealers in Chattanooga (44 attempts) and caught three of ten runners at Triple-A. Garver is 25 and has never been a household name, but he's pushed himself to the top of the Twins organization when it comes to up and coming backstops.
 
He's a right-handed batter and would give the Twins both a defensive minded option to spell Jason Castro, as well as bringing a respectable bat to the big leagues. It's a pretty big jump for him to go from 22 Triple-A games to the big leagues, so that could definitely work against him. Unless the Twins settle for John Ryan Murphy or Chris Gimenez, Garver absolutely makes a good deal of sense.
 
Ehire Adrianza- SS, 2B, 3B
 
New to the Twins organization, Adrianza has never been lauded as any sort of top prospect. What has been touted this offseason however is his glove, and specifically at shortstop. In a limited sample size, he's produced Andrelton Simmons-esque defensive metrics, and that's something the Twins haven't had for quite some time. Adrianza owns just a .605 OPS in 154 MLB games but he's got a .822 OPS across five Triple-A seasons.
 
Even if he can't bring much to the plate, Adrianza could be vital to the Twins with Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco slated to man the left side of the infield. Pitching could end up struggling to get consistent outs from that side of the diamond, and Adrianza as a fill in or defensive replacement makes a good deal of sense.
 
Zach Granite- OF
 
The Minnesota Twins minor league player of the year would be making his big league debut if he joined the 25 man roster. Granite brings exceptional speed and defense to the big league club, and that's absolutely what separates him from the competition. Last season, as a 23 year old at Double-A, Granite posted a .729 OPS (his best as a pro). More of a singles hitter than a gap guy, Granite got on base and then advanced via the steal. He racked up 56 stolen bases and nearly walked (42) more often than he struck out (43).
 
When comparing Granite to the likes of Robbie Grossman, or even J.B. Shuck, Minnesota gets a fielder that can realistically play all three outfield spots. Granite is above average no matter where he is in the grass, and has the speed to let very little fall in. The big jump from Double-A is worrisome potentially, but as a hitter with a great eye, the on base skills could quickly rival those of Grossman.
 
Byungho Park- 1B/DH
 
Removed from the 40 man roster this offseason, the Twins gave Kennys Vargas the leg up in winning the designated hitter role. He still could fill that spot, but a healthy Park should be expected to be a different player. He struggled with velocity in his first big league season, although a wrist injury could have contributed to that. Park's spring homers thus far have come off of 93 and 96 mph heat, and while he'll still strikeout plenty, that power can play.
 
While Joe Mauer is Gold Glove caliber at 1B, he's not going to be able to play every day. Vargas has been below average defensively, while in roughly the same limited sample, Park has been as asset. He was a quality player in the field over in Korea, and represents a clear upgrade in the field behind Mauer as well.
 
This construction would require the Twins to figure out what to do with the likes of Robbie Grossman, Danny Santana, and Eduardo Escobar. They can save money (roughly $2 million) by moving on from Escobar. Grossman has a smaller deal, and Santana has been a guy that I've contended Minnesota would be best served to move along from for quite some time.
 
The likelihood that this construction plays out if minute at best, but it remains an intriguing group of guys that I believe would serve the Twins well to start 2017. Admittedly the biggest hole here is the lack of a left-handed bat, but given Minnesota's options, it still may represent the most optimal scenario.
 
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Last season, the Minnesota Twins jettisoned Ricky Nolasco to the Los Angeles Angeles. The move was widely applauded as it purged Nolasco's contract from Minnesota and got him out of the rotation. What was overlooked however, was that former top prospect Alex Meyer was thrown in, and Hector Santiago was coming back to the Twins.
 
There's no kind way to put it, Nolasco was a disaster in Minnesota. Terry Ryan over-extended himself by spending on starting pitching that had almost no chance of paying off. In trading Nolasco to the Angels though, Minnesota simply took on a similar pitcher. Hector Santiago was awarded $8 million through arbitration, and the club is still paying the Angels $4 million of Nolasco's salary this season. Essentially they gave up Alex Meyer simply to get a team to take Nolasco off their hands.
 
Santiago came over to Minnesota in the midst of a hot streak, and there was some thought he could pitch right around the high water level he'd established. What ended up taking place however, was 11 starts to the tune of a 5.58 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. His strikeout numbers plummeted and he gave up 13 homers in those starts.
 
Although Santiago was an All Star in 2015, his recent career has always had reason for concern. In his All Star campaign, he gave up a league leading 29 homers, and then backed that up with 33 in 2016. He also surrendered a league leading (and career worst) 79 walks last season. For a guy that's never thrown over 182 innings, and owns a 4.84 FIP since 2014, he's got very few things going in his favor.
 
Since his 2011 debut with the White Sox, Santiago's velocity has fallen off as well. Topping out at a 93.8 mph fastball then, he's fallen to hovering right around 90 mph last season, and routinely sitting there is a stretch. His contact rate checked in at 81.8% last season, which was it's highest since 2014. If there's a level of consistency, it's found in Santiago's swing and miss stuff, which has routinely generated an 8% mark throughout his career.
 
The reality though, when looking at the sum of all parts, is that the Twins are going to be asking a lot from a guy they already have cemented into their rotation. There's real reason to believe that Santiago could be among the Twins worst pitchers this season. He serves up dingers at an alarming rate, his velocity has dipped, and his command has waned. He could be helped out by the boost that Jason Castro will serve over Kurt Suzuki, but he's going to need a significant jump.
 
If Santiago wasn't the Twins return for Nolasco, or frankly if he had a different name on the back of his jersey, you'd be able to make a real argument he'd struggle to make this club. Considering top prospect Jose Berrios has little to prove in the minors at this point, running him out there more consistently would provide more long term benefit.
 
As things stand. Paul Molitor and the Twins are going to be forced to choose between Trevor May, Berrios, Adalberto Mejia, Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, and Nick Tepesch for one spot. There's absolutely some guys in that group that will be filtered out, but on numbers alone, there isn't a reason to suggest Santiago is better than the bulk of the group. Having to settle for him no matter what ties the hands of the Twins rotation a bit, and it was already not in a good place.
 
Maybe everything gets turned on its head, and Santiago's first full year in Minnesota allows him to acclimate and things go incredibly well. Looking at the numbers he's put up, and the way things have trended for him though, that's a pretty big ask. Hector Santiago is going to be in the Twins rotation, but he may just be another form of Ricky Nolasco.
 
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Image courtesy of Jamie Squire/Getty Images
 
Chris Devenski will become an ace.
Chris Devenski is the most underrated player in baseball, and I am on a mission to let everybody know who he is. After his rookie year with the Houston Astros last year he was still largely ignored, so let me give you a briefing. Devenski has one of the best changeups in baseball, and it is no small stretch to say that he can rival the changeup of Kyle Hendricks, and having a signature pitch that is one of the best in the league gives him a jump start on the long list of pitchers waiting to become household names. He also has a sneaky fastball, and a slider that can get batters to chase. Keep an eye on the Astros righty this year.
 
Sonny Gray will be a top 10 starting pitcher.
Sonny Gray has become known as the undersized righty who once made it big in the majors, but his real claim to fame is getting exceptional horizontal movement on his pitches, and in doing so he outpaces all other right handed pitchers in the league. Gray has struggled with injuries in the past season, but if he is healthy he has the potential to be a top ten pitcher in wins above replacement, something he has never done before. Here is a not so bold prediction: Sonny Gray will be a hot commodity at the trade deadline.
 
Brian Dozier will be the top second baseman in baseball.
If you had told me in July of 2015 that in 2016 Brian Dozier would hit over 40 homers I would not have been surprised, but if you had told me that exactly one year later I would have been. That is how good Dozier’s second half was last year, which led some to say that his outburst was an unrepeatable fluke and that he will come back to earth this year. One thing that naysayers do not consider is that there were some legitimate changes to Dozier’s approach at the plate, and his torrid second half was the result of some hard work. If Dozier can bring the changes over to this year look for him to outperform Altuve, Murphy, and other star second basemen.
 
Mac Williamson will be the Giants starting left fielder.
Mac Williamson is another player whom you may not have heard of before, but the corner spot is up for grabs this spring and there is no clear favorite for the job, so even if he does not win the spot right out of camp he should still have a chance to steal it midseason. Williamson has raw power that he can tap into, and if he can start elevating the ball better in games he could collect thirty round trippers. The Giants are perennial contenders for the pennant, and if Williamson gets a starting role look for him to a force at the plate.
 
Keon Broxton will be the first 30-30 player since 2012.
Keon Broxton flew under the radar last year, but the center fielder for the Brewers will not be able to do that for much longer. His unique skill set will elevate him above the competition, and Broxton will be on the road to superstardom. Broxton has some concerns, and the fact that he strikes out at a ridiculous rate is one of them. If he can keep a high batting average on balls in play he will still be on base enough to worry pitchers.
 
Freddie Freeman will be the top hitter in the National League.
Freddie Freeman did not get enough attention last year because he played on a terrible team, so he was virtually ignored when it came to MVP talk. The Braves’ new ballpark dimensions are more favorable to a lefty hitter than Turner Field, so Freeman has an extra advantage this year, even though he does not need it. It may surprise you, but in recent years Freeman put up similar numbers compared to David Ortiz, and since Ortiz is now retired, baseball fans will need to find a new favorite lefty hitter. We cannot ignore Freeman for much longer.
 
Trea Turner will be the best player on the Washington Nationals.
Max Scherzer, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy all play on the Nationals, but Trea Turner is really that good. Turner has blazing speed and surprising power, and with his return to his natural position of shortstop his fielding will no longer hurt his value. Something else that Turner has working for him is that he will get a chance at a full season, and in 73 games last year he hit 13 home runs and stole 33 bases. Another plus is that he will have Harper and Murphy hitting behind him, which is something almost all other hitters would covet.
 
Andrew Miller will win the American League Cy Young.
It is getting to the point where the great relievers in baseball can no longer be ignored, and Andrew Miller or the Orioles Zach Britton have the best chance to take home the coveted award. I am going with Miller over Britton because of Miller’s higher strikeout rates. If Miller takes home the award baseball writers will not only have to ignore the fact that Miller is not a starter, but also that he is not even a closer. I am guessing that if they lay aside one prejudice they can lay aside another.
 
The Athletics will make the playoffs.
It seems like the Oakland A’s are never projected to make the playoffs, but they are a team that can be put together in bits and pieces and come away with a championship caliber club. 2017 should be no exception, and even though the Athletics have already been projected to have a losing record, they quietly have a solid roster. The pitching staff will be the leading force for the A’s, with Sonny Gray and Sean Manaea being the headliners, and the lineup is solid, which makes the Athletics a legitimate contender.
 
The Houston Astros will defeat the Washington Nationals in the World Series.
The Washington Nationals are loaded with talent, but the Houston Astros are a very exciting bunch in 2017. With no mention of the Chicago Cubs or the Boston Red Sox this prediction may surprise some, but the best team in the regular season usually does not win the World Series, and last year’s Cubs were the exception to the rule. The Astros pitching staff is the biggest concern for them right now, but if Dallas Keuchel can get back to his 2015 form they will not need to worry, and I already have pegged Chris Devenski for a breakout year, which would be huge for this team. Overall, the Astros are a great team.

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----
You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
 
This is the countdown for players ranked 51-55th in the system. You can find players 56-60 here, players 51-55 here, 46-50 here, 41-45 here, 36-40 here, 31-35 here, 26-30 here, 21-25 here, 16-20 here, 11-15 here, 6-10 here, 1-5 here, and all segments in the series here. There are detailed profiles, scouting reports and analysis about each player, so if you are interested in a particular player in the list, they might be useful.
 
The 2017 off-season Twins' top 60 prospect list looks like this (in parenthesis the 2016 ranking, followed by position and the ETA) :
 
1. Wander Javier (7) SS, 2020
2. Tyler Jay (2) LHP, 2017
3. Lewin Diaz (5) 1B/DH, 2019
4. Fernardo Romero (34), RHP, 2018
5. Nick Gordon (9) SS, 2018
6. Stephen Gonsalves (4) LHSP, 2018
7. Daniel Palka (18) OF, 2017
8. Alex Kirilloff (--) OF, 2020
9. Adalbelto Mejia (--) LHP, 2016
10. Mitch Garver (10) C, 2017
11. Luis Arraez IF (24), 2019
12. Nick Burdi (3) RHRP, 2017
13. Brusdar Graterol (28), RHSP, 2020+
14. Engelb Vielma SS (23), 2017
15. Travis Blankenhorn (38), 3B/1B, 2020 10 BA
16. Ben Rortvedt (--) C, 2020
17. Kohl Stewart RHSP (13), 2018
18. Mason Melotakis (12), LHRP, 2017
19. Amaurys Minier (15) OF/1B, 2019
20. Huascar Ynoa (27), RHSP, 2020
21. Justin Haley (--) RHP, 2017
22. LaMonte Wade (31), CF, 2018
23. Felix Jorge (20), RHSP, 2018
24. Akil Baddoo (--) OF , 2020
25. Jake Reed (16) RHRP, 2017
26 Niko Goodrum (37), CF/IF, 2017
27 Trevor Hildenberger (--) RHP 2018
28 D.J. Baxendale, (--) RHP; 2017
29 Lachlan Wells (26), LHSP, 2020
30 Lewis Thorpe (17) LHSP, 2019
31 Jermaine Palacios (8) SS/3B, 2020
32 Rainis Silva (21), C, 2019
33 Michael Theophanopoulos, LHP, 2018
34 Dereck Rodriguez - 24 – RHP – 2019
35 John Curtiss, RHP; 2018
36 Jean Carlos Arias (22), CF, 2020
37 Travis Harrison (14), OF/1B, 2018
38 Aaron Slegers (--), RHP 2018
39 Jaylin Davis, (--) OF 2019
40 Levi Michael (11), 2B, 2016
41 Brandon Lopez (--) SS, 2020
42 Brandon Peterson (29), RHRP, 2017
43 Zach Granite, (--) OF, 2017
44 Humberto Maldonado (--) OF, 2020+
45 Pedro Garcia (--) RHP 2020 +
46 Tyler Benninghoff, (--) RHP 2020 +
47 Nelson Molina, INF 2020
48 Taylor Clemensia (--) LHP 2020
49 Eduardo Del Rosario (--) RHP 2019
50 Jordan Balazovic, (--) RHP, 2020+
51 Jason Wheeler (--) LHP, 2017
52 Andrew Vasquez (--) LHP 2019
53 Zander Wiel, (--) 1B 2019
54 Tyler Wells (--) RHP 2020
55 Cody Stashak -(--) RHP 2019
56 Colton Davis (--) RHP 2019
57 Williams Ramirez (--) 2019
58 Tanner English (--) OF 2018
59 Aaron Whitefield (--) IF/OF 2020
60 Michael Cederoth (--) RHP 2018
 
Players who were on the 2016 list (then a top 40) and are not in the 2017 are:
 
Emmanuel Morel (40) IF
Trey Cabbage (39), IF/OF
Chris Paul (33) IF/OF
Kolton Kendrick (32), 1B/DH
Ryan Eades RHP (25)
Adam Walker OF (19)
 
Players who graduated from the 2016 list are:
 
Jose Berrios (1) RHP
JT Chargois (6) RHP
 
Too good to exclude, but I had to, because of his circumstances:
 
Griffin Jax RHP. His stuff is there to merit inclusion in this list, and likely within the top 40. However his commitment to the US Air Force, which already resulted in him missing professional baseball commitments, including the whole 2017 Spring Training, is a big unknown, regarding his career as a baseball player. Unless this conflict is resolved, I will have a hard time including him in a prospect list. His Air Force assignment starts in late May after graduation and it is at the Eglin Air Force Base in Pensacola, FL.
 
Organizational Strengths:
 
Shortstop/middle infield: The Twins have 3 players on the top 15 of the organization that are about a year away from each other as far as readiness go, in addition to former number 2 prospect, Jorge Polanco in the majors with 4 more seasons of team control, which will bridge with the ETA of the current number 1 prospect Wander Javier, while players like Nick Gordon (5th , ETA 2018) and Engelb Vielma (14th, ERA 2017) could be stopgaps if necessary, slide over to second base, or be trade bait. Jermaine Palacios (31, ETA 2020) and Brandon Lopez (41, ETA 2020) are two additional players that can stick at shortstop and make quick gains. Luis Arraez (11, ETA 2019) looks like the Twins' second baseman of the future, estimated to be ready when Brian Dozier's contract expires, so there is also a nice bridge there. If Dozier is traded, current major leaguers Eduardo Escobar and Ehire Adrianza, in addition to Polanco and Vielma will battle out for his replacement and the starting SS position, with Gordon added to the list in 2018. All in all, middle infield is a strength in the organization allowing for potential trades down the road to plug other holes.
 
Relief Pitching: There are 32 pitchers in the list, several with ETA of 2017 and 2018 and only two, LHPs Stephen Gonsalves (6, ETA 2018) and Adalberto Mejia (9, 2016), are unquestionably starters. Pitchers like LHP Tyler Jay (2, ETA 2017 as a reliever) and RHP Fernando Romero (5, ETA 2018), the only 2 pitchers in the organization who are potentially top of the rotation starters, can help the Twins' pen soon, in addition to RHP Nick Burdi (12, 2017) who has closer potential and the best pure stuff in the organization, LHP Mason Melotakis (18, 2017), Rule 5 draft pick RHP Justin Haley (21, 2017) and RHPs Jake Reed (25, 2017) and D.J. Baxendale (28, 2017). Former 6th overall prospect JT Chargois is in the majors, along with his college co-closer Tyler Duffey, who has had setbacks as a starter and belongs to the pen, and along with the current pipeline, supplemented by another half dozen pitchers who are projected to be ready in 2018, they can anchor a strong bullpen for the Twins for the years to come.
 
Organizational Weaknesses:
 
Catcher: The only major-league ready catcher in the list is Mitch Garver (10, ETA 2017) who projects as a two way major league average catcher at this point, and will battle for a back up to defensive wizard but light hitting, especially against lefties, Jason Castro. There are only 2 more catchers in the list, Ben Rortvedt (16, ETA 2020) and Rainis Silva (21, ETA 2019) who have as much promise as they have question marks. Former 28th best prospect in the 2015 list Stuart Turner was selected on the Rule 5 draft and might return, however he is a glove first catcher who profiles as a defensive back up in the majors at best at this point. This is a position that there is practically no pipeline and the Twins should address at the draft and/or with trades
 
Starting pitching: As mentioned only LHP Tyler Jay (2, ETA 2017 as a reliever) and RHP Fernando Romero (5, ETA 2018), are the only two prospects with top of the rotation projections, but they both bring a lot of unanswered questions about durability and whether they can transition to starters in the majors. Add to this the fact that the current Twins starters in the majors are at best number 3s or 4s in a competitive team, and the situation looks a bit dire. RHP Brusdar Graterol (13, 2020+) and LHP Lewis Thorpe (30, 2019), could be part of the discussion, if proven healthy, but they are at least 2 seasons away. LHPs Stephen Gonsalves (6, ETA 2018) and Adalberto Mejia (9, 2016), are close to ready or ready, but project as a mid to bottom of the rotation starters. So do RHPs Kohl Stewart (17, 2018) and Huascar Ynoa (20, 2020). The rest of the pitchers in this list project as relievers. The Twins will have to address this problem with the draft where they have the number 1 overall selection as well as with trades, and potentially free agency down the road, in order to compete.

Let me preface with the reality that fandom comes in different shapes and sizes. I realize there are those that are more casual observers, and there are diehards. There are those who watch the game, and then there are those that know the game. Simply defining someone watching Minnesota Twins baseball as a fan doesn't do the categorization justice. When it comes to the 2017 home nine though, there seems to be a growing and unfortunate confusion.
 
Arguably the most frustrating notion is that this team is destined to be bad because, well, they lost 103 games last season. That's absolutely a fact regarding the loss total, outside of that, the statement couldn't be less confusing. Given the Twins emerged from nowhere in 2015 and won 83 games finishing 2nd in the AL Central, how can that be immediately dismissed?
 
In 2016, Paul Molitor had virtually the same starting infield as he did the year prior (save for Eduardo Escobar replacing Danny Santana at shortstop). He had a new outfield that consisted of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario as opposed to the 2015 contingent of Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, and Torii Hunter. Picking up the extra at bats as the designated hitter was Byungho Park instead of the replaced Kennys Vargas from 2015. As a whole, the Opening Day lineup remained a virtual clone.
 
On the mound, Tyler Duffey replaced Mike Pelfrey in the big league rotation. The bullpen was thrown together with relatively similar pieces, and Molitor had a couple of new coaches at his disposal. What held true though was that nothing was truly groundbreaking.
 
Here's the thing though, in 2015 the Twins overachieved significantly. Virtually all metrics suggested regression was coming, and the fact of the matter was there were too many placeholders to simply fill all of the holes. If 2015 gave you as a fan hope for 2016, you were likely as misguided as suggesting 2016 is a precursor for the season to come.
 
So Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano are prospects you've heard about forever and haven't produced to the level you perceived? Is it incredibly surprising that a 22 year-old and two 23 year-old's are taking a bit longer to adjust at the big league level? Of course it isn't. Sano already has 40 career homers under his belt, Berrios has made a handful of starts, and Buxton is already playing Gold Glove caliber defense. At 23 years old, Kirby Puckett was at Single-A and Johan Santana was a reliever with a career 5.90 ERA.
 
Exposure has given us a heightened level of insight into young prospects. There's lists, articles, Twitter, and countless other sources of information for the game's next stars. You may hear about a player earlier, but that doesn't change the adjustment period, or the reality that knowledge beyond those sources is key to understanding how quickly a kid may take to a man's game.
 
Rounding out the trio of complaints is the one that encompasses both the overlooking of past results, and well as current roster construction. Why didn't Derek Falvey and Thad Levine come in and do more this offseason? The long and short of it is that they didn't have to. Both astute baseball minds, they realize this club is going to need to be carried by the likes of the Sano's and Buxton's. Signing a big bat, or a major arm, prior to the young guys being ready to shoulder more of the load, is a wasted year.
 
Going into the offseason, I suggested multiple times that standing pat would be a good place for the Twins. I was interested in Wilson Ramos pre-injury. Jason Castro emerged, and then made immediate sense. He helps to address pitching and defense, is a low cost signing, and can hit at least to the level Kurt Suzuki was capable of. Outside of that, a throw in reliever until some of the young arms made sense. Minnesota has really strong relief prospects, and blocking them with significant retread veterans never would have been a good idea.
 
Right now, the Twins executed everything as they needed to, and really, it's on you to see that. There's no one suggesting this club is making the playoffs, and even a .500 record would be a nice bonus. They aren't close to a 59 win team though, and the reasoning is relatively simple. The youth will continue to develop, and banking on those names you've heard forever to be stars is still a good bet. Finally, when it comes time to supplement with outside talent (and Minnesota is close to that point), then Falvey and Levine will be aware of the fact they are building, and not rebuilding.
 
Don't miss the boat, and don't throw out baseless frustration. Whether comment sections, casual discussion, Twitter, or some other place is your stomping ground, have a little foundation to stand upon when considering what is being brought to the table. Baseball is a sport that allows you to consume it in multiple different ways. Understanding that opinions are also a reflection of that is a must.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Coming into this offseason, I made the contention that the Minnesota Twins didn't need to make a ton of moves. Despite losing 103 games a year ago, you'd be blind to look at the roster and see a makeup worthy of that result. In reality, the club fell flat, but has the pieces in place to begin to supplement for the future. This offseason, the new regime has made the narrative one of putting players on notice.
 
As I alluded to not too long ago, this Twins club is no longer in rebuilding mode. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Jose Berrios need to be the workhorses they have been touted as for the club to take the next step. Instead, the organization finds itself in a place of supplementation. That is, to push the envelope by adding from outside of the organization. In a piece over at Twins Daily, Nick Nelson did a great job highlighting the focus on defense, and the effect that should have in the wins column for Paul Molitor's club.
 
In bringing on defensive talent, and really other veteran options as a whole, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have signified they are done playing the waiting game. No longer is standing idly by and hoping that up and coming youth plays out looking like it's going to fly with this front office.
 
With some real question marks to round out the 25 man roster, veteran options such as J.B. Shuck, Drew Stubbs, Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch, and Chris Gimenez find themselves in big league camp pushing for a job. For those holdovers in the Twins organization, they can bet each of those guys is coming to Fort Myers with the intention of taking their job.
 
Most notably however, it appears that the Twins are sending pointed messages to players such as Danny Santana and Eddie Rosario. Santana is a guy that really has no position, and doesn't do much of anything with the bat. His lone perceived value is that he can occupy space all over the field, but that comes with the caveat that it's below average no matter where he stands. With the acquisition of Adrianza, it would certainly appear that Minnesota is willing to move on from that perception for the added value of a defensive wizard.
 
A guy like Adrianza isn't going to be pushing for MVP votes any time soon, but bringing in a glove first bench player suggests that Minnesota may be done allowing Santana to skate by. Having not made adjustments since an inflated rookie campaign, the former shortstop prospect has continued to stumble down the reliability meter. Although Santana would need to be DFA'd and clear waivers, I'm not certain the Twins care too much at this point.
 
Too a lesser extent, Rosario appears to be in the crosshairs as well. He too had a very strong rookie season and has taken significant steps backwards since. Bolstered by 15 triples, and held up by outfield assists, both offensively and defensively Rosario left plenty to be desired in his second season. He continues to have a lopsided strikeout to walk ratio, and effort concerns have always loomed close to the young Puerto Rican.
 
At this point, I'd guess Rosario remains safe with Robbie Grossman and a host of other vets vying for that filler outfield spot. That being said, a poor performance process wise, as well as on the field, this spring could spell his demise. Along the same vein as Santana, Minnesota appears to want to see each of their roster spots earned, and the competition isn't simply has-been reunion stories.
 
Minor league deals have virtually no downside given the lack of promise they uphold. For a team like the Twins trying to stretch extra wins out of anywhere possible, bringing win competition to either take over or motivate those that end up on their Opening Day roster is far from a bad move. If I were Danny Santana or Eddie Rosario, I'd be treating Fort Myers like it's October baseball from the get go.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch
----
You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2016 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2016 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference.
 
This is the countdown for players ranked 51-55th in the system. You can find players 56-60 here, players 51-55 here, 46-50 here, 41-45 here, 36-40 here, 31-35 here, 26-30 here, 21-25 here, 16-20 here, and all segments in the series here.
 
15. Travis Blankenhorn (38)
DOB: 8/3/1996; Age: 20
Positions: 2B
Bats: L, Throws: R
Height: 6'2", Weight: 208 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round in 2015
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: A (2016)
ETA: 2020
 
Travis Blankenhorn was drafted by the Twins in the 3rd round of the 2015 draft from the Pottsville, PA Area High School as a third baseman. He started his pro career in the GCL where he played in 14 games (49 AB) hitting .245/.362/.408 with 7 BBs and 11 Ks, before he moved up to Elizabethton for the last 39 games of the season where in 144 AB he hit .243/.306/.326 with 11 BB, and 32 K. He started last season in Extended Spring Training before moving to Elizabethton where in 34 games (138 AB) he hit a robust .297/.342/.558 with 9 HRs, 7 2Bs, 1 3B, 8 BB and 33 K. He finished the season in class A Cedar Rapids where in 25 games (91 AB) he hit .286/.356/.418 with 1 HR, 5 2B, 2 3B, 8 BB and 28 K. Blankenhorn who moved to second base, a position that he is playing better than third, adjusted to the wooden bat much better in his second professional season. He has decent game speed, but will not steal many bases. His contact tool improved this season (.330 BABIP in Elizabethton and .403 at Cedar Rapids) and there is potential for further power that was realized with a .261 isoP in Elizabethton (.132 in Cedar Rapids.) The positional change to second base, along with the improvement in defense from his previous corner OF and IF positions, made him jump in the ratings as well. His bat might or might not play at corner positions and his glove is very suspect there. However at second base he has the potential to be a Todd Walker type of player, esp. if he curtails his strikeouts (27.5 % K% in Cedar Rapids and 22.1 in Elizabethton.) Better pitch recognition will help with selectivity, and Blankenhorn is young enough for one to believe that he will get there. Part of the problem is that LHPs make him practically worthless (.472 OPS and 54.2 K% against them in Elizabethton and .593 and 25 K% in Cedar Rapids, vs a star-like 1.107 and .832 OPS against RHPs in those stops)
 
Likely 2017 path: Starting 2B at Cedar Rapids.
 
14. Engelb Vielma (23)
DOB: 6/22/1994; Age: 22
Positions: SS
Bats: S, Throws: R
Height: 5'11", Weight: 155 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent signing 2011
Professional Experience: 5; Highest level: AA (2016)
ETA: 2017
 
Engelb Vielma was signed by the Twins as an international free agent from the Venezuela on September 8, 2012 for a $90,000 bonus. The Maracaibo native has been moving really quickly through the Twins organization, mainly because of his glove appears ahead of what looks from afar as an average bat (career minor league .264/.327/.309 slash line.) Vielma had a highly quiet and mostly invisible break-through season with the bat in 2015 at high A Fort Myers. He hit .270/.321/.306, which at first sight is about the same .266/.313/.323, if not worse, than he did in Cedar Rapids in 2014, until someone looks below the slash lines: Vielma was the youngest position player at the Miracle team and the Miracle team slash line was .246/.319/.318, so he made better contact than the average. Power is not his strong suit, so looking at SLG% is misleading. If you look at component numbers, like wRC+, he had 93 in 2015 vs 84 in 2014. He is also maturing as a player taking advantage of his speed. He will not walk (7% BB%) or strikeout (14.2% K%) but will make contact and run. He had 24 sacrifices that season, and most of them (18) on the ground. He stole a career high 35 bases (but was caught 12 times). He started his first 8 games last season at Fort Myers rehabbing from an oblique strain before he moved to AA Chattanooga. There here played 90 games (314 AB), hit .271/.345/.318, striking out 62 times and walking 34. He went 10/18 in stolen bases as well. His wRC+ improved to a career best and close to a league average 97, while his K% dropped to 16.9%. His BABIP was .333, a couple of ticks above his career average in .310s. For some unfortunate reason, the improvement in Vielma's bat is invisible to the outside, which drives unfortunate characterizations like "punchless leatherwizard with a bat so light he may not even profile as a utility man despite an acrobatic brand of plus defense at short" from national writers who likely have not seen him play.
 
This cannot be any further from the truth. A 97 wRC+ at AA with a plus defense projects as Ozzie Smith (career .666 OPS and 90 wRC+ in the majors with career best 119 wRC+ ) material. Vielma's detractors will also need to look at his .338/.407/.416 line in 2016 (and .301/.343/.341 in 2015) as a right hand hitter, which are exceptional. Vielma is the poster boy for stopping switch hitting. Why would someone with All-Star SS potential is ranked so low? For one single reason: Concentration lapses both on the field and the base paths make Vielma less effective than he should be. He is still 22, so there is a lot of time for him to mature (and learn how to hit right handers as a right.) When that happens, watch out.
 
Likely 2017 path: On the 40-man roster with the Twins, likely starting SS at AAA Rochester with a potential trip to the majors.
 
13. Brusdar Graterol (28)
DOB: 8/26/1998; Age: 18
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'1", Weight: 180 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent signing 2014
Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: Rookie/DSL (2015)
ETA: 2020+
 
Brusdar Graterol was signed by the Twins as an international free agent from the Venezuela on August 29, 2014, three days after his 16th birthday, for $150,000. The Calobozo native made only 4 career starts in the DSL before he required Tommy John surgery and moved statewide the summer of 2015. His numbers in those 4 games, as a 16 year old, fully 3 years younger than the league, were video-game like: 11 IP, 17 K, 13.9 K/9, 36.2 K%, 1 BB, 0.8 BB/9, 34 K-BB%, 2.45 ERA, 1.19 FIP, 1.18 WHIP (.444 BABIP.) He made my 2016 off-season prospect list at number 28 ( He returned from the surgery well, throwing his plus to plus plus fastball at 94-97 mph, supplementing it with a crisp slurve at the 85-87 mph range and a work in progress changeup. He is throwing from a 3/4 delivery that causes deception between his pitches. Graterol is one of the few pitchers in the Twins' organization with top of the rotation stuff, but he will need a lot of work. Reports from Fort Myers say that he added about 40 lbs to his DSL weight the past season and a half. Definitely someone to keep an eye on.
 
Likely 2017 path: EST and the GCL or Elizabethton rotations depending the Twins' draft.
 
12. Nick Burdi (3)
DOB: 8/3/1996; Age: 24
Positions: RHP
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6'5", Weight: 220 lbs
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round in 2014
Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: AA (2015, 2016)
ETA: 2017
 
Nick Burdi was drafted by the Twins in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft from Louisville as a Junior. The Hinsdale, IL was the Louisville closer his last 2 seasons and finished his Junior season with ridiculous numbers: 32 games, 37 IP, 18 H, 2 ER, 10 BB (2.4 BB/9), 65 K (15.8 K/9,) for 0.49 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 18 saves. Burdi had the arm to bypass the minors and pitch directly at the Twins' pen in 2014, but he started the season in A Cedar Rapids (13 G, 13 IP, 26 K, 18.0 K/9, 48.2 K%, 8 BB, 5.5 BB/9, 33.3 K-BB%, 4.15 ERA, 1.33 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, .400 BABIP) and finished in high A Fort Myers (7 G, 7-1/3 IP, 12 K, 14.7 K/9, 42.9 K%, 2 BB, 2.5 BB/9, 35.7 K-BB%, 0.00 ERA, 1.35 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, .385 BABIP). Burdi started the Next season in AA Chattanooga, demoted to Fort Myers for inconsistency in the end of June and returned mid August. For the season Burdi pitched 30 games in AA (43.7 IP) walked 32 (6.6 BB/9, 10.7 K-BB%) and struck out 54 (11.1 K/9 and 26.3 K%) with a 4.53 ERA (3.99 FIP) and 1.65 WHIP (3.22 BABIP). In 13 games at Fort Myers (20 IP) he walked 3 (1.4 BB/9, 35.6 K-BB%) and struck out 29 (13.1 K/9, 39.7 K%) for a 2.25 ERA (1.37 FIP) and 0.75 WHIP (.275 BABIP). He finished the season in the Arizona Fall League, in a truly dominating fashion, when he pitched in 8 games (8 IP) walking 1 and striking out 11 (42.3K%, 38.5 K-BB%,) allowing no earned or unearned runs and only 2 hits with a .380 WHIP. Were it an isolated incident, his numbers in AA in 2015 could be of some concern; looking at the facts that a. other top relief prospects, like Reed and Chargois suffered there that season, and b. that Burdi dominated in the AFL, the concern is alleviated. Burdi was invited in the MLB Spring Training as a non-roster invitee, but quickly shut down with elbow concerns that were diagnosed as a bruised humerus. He pitched only 3 innings in Chattanooga last season for that reason, and has changed his delivery in order to help his healthy.
 
Burdi is throwing a high 90s plus plus fastball that tops in three digits and supplements it with a plus to plus plus slider that sits at 89-90, creeping into the low 90s. He is also throwing a changeup. Burdi had has a violent delivery and his mechanics are concern both as far as his health and his command goes. Hopefully his recent changes in his delivery will address this, without taking away his effectiveness. Pitchers with high 30s K-BB% are rare to find and Burdi has closer potential, but he has to get healthy, stay healthy and keep command of his fastball, which has done at several levels so far. 2017 will be a rebuilding and cautionary season for him, as he is not invited to the Twins' Spring Training
 
Likely 2017 path: Depending on health, Rochester or Chattanooga pen with a potential MLB call up this season.
 
11. Luis Arraez IF (24)
DOB: 4/9/1997; Age: 19
Positions: 2B
Bats: L, Throws: R
Height: 5'10", Weight: 155 lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent signing 2013
Professional Experience: 3; Highest level: A (2016)
ETA: 2019
 
Luis Arraez was signed by the Twins as an international free agent from the Venezuela on November 3rd, 2013. The San Felipe native opened some eyes in his first professional season in the DSL hitting .348/.433/.400 (147 wRC+) in 31 games (135 PA). The next season he moved to the GCL where he continued his success hitting .309/.377/.391 (133 wRC+) in 57 games (233 PA). Last season he played for class A Cedar Rapids where he was the fifth youngest player in the Midwest League. He hit .347/.386/.444 (146 wRC+) in 114 games (514 PA). He continued the season in the Venezuelan Winter League where he hit .335/.382/.445 with 15 BB and 15 K this in 45 games (182 AB.) Other than Cedar Rapids where he was 31:51, Arraez has had at least equal strikeouts to walks, and his K% was never higher than 9.9%. His splits last season was pretty equal for the lefty hitting Arraez: .333/.378/.422 vs LHP and .351/.388/.450 vs RHPs. He finished the season with a .374/.398/.457 slash line the second half that included a very impressive .425/.444/.487 performance in August. His swing is compact with great bat control and plus bat speed, quick wrists and the ability to hit the opposite way. His power has been improving (0.052 to 0.082 to 0.097 isoP), his contact has remained fairly high (.374, .323, and .382 BABIP) and he has decent speed but not good base stealing instincts (career 21/37 SB). His play at second base has been improvin every season and he was +13 DRS last season in Cedar Rapids. Arraez is starting to look more and more like a two way player with All-Star bat potential, but he is still very young. It will be interesting to see how he will fare against higher level competition, but his VWL results are extremely promising.
 
Likely 2017 path: Starting 2B at Fort Myers

Here is the Twins Almanac for the week of February 5-11. Former Twins closer Al Worthington, Mounds View grad Mark Hamburger, and current Twins outfielder Max Kepler are all celebrating birthdays this week. '27 Yankees third baseman Julie Wera was born in Winona this week in 1902. Also this week in Twins history was a big payday for Bloomington's Kent Hrbek (1985), the Chuck Knoblauch trade ('08), and Terry Ryan's cancer diagnosis ('14).
 
 
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February 5
Happy 88th Birthday to Al Worthington


 
It’s the birthday of former Twins stopper Al Worthington, born in Birmingham, Alabama in 1929. The Twins purchased the 35-year-old pitcher from the Reds on June 26, 1964, the same day on which Twins pitcher Gerry Arrigo took a no-hitter against the White Sox into the ninth at Met Stadium. Arrigo would complete a 1-hit shutout of the Sox. Worthington, meanwhile, would appear in 41 of the Twins’ 81 remaining games, posting a 1.37 ERA.
 
Worthington was the first Twin to save 20+ games, going 10-5 with 21 saves and a 2.13 ERA during the Twins’ 1965 American League Championship season.
 
Worthington was the first Twin to lead the league in saves with 18 in 1968 at age 39. Ron Perranoski (‘69 and ‘70), Mike Marshall (‘79), and Eddie Guardado (‘02) are the only other Twins to do so.
 
Worthington lives in Sterrett, AL these days, and, incidentally, would be happy to answer your letter.
 
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February 5
Mark Hamburger Turns the Big 3-0


 
Happy 30th birthday to Mounds View High School and Mesabi Range Community and Technical College alumnus Mark Hamburger, born in St. Paul in 1987. Hamburger was signed by the Twins in 2007, and traded to Texas for Eddie Guardado in August, 2008. He pitched eight innings over five games for the Rangers late in the 2011 season, posting a 1-0 record during his only big league call-up.
 
Hamburger subsequently spent time in the Padres’ and Astros’ organizations before being signed again by the Twins in September 2013. He never made it back to the majors, though. Hamburger pitched for the St. Paul Saints in 2016, going 12-6 in 21 appearances (20 starts), with a 3.29 ERA.
 
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February 6, 1998
Twins Trade Chuck Knoblauch


 
The Twins trade All-Star second baseman Chuck Knoblauch to the New York Yankees for minor leaguers Eric Milton, Cristian Guzman, Brian Buchanan, Danny Mota and three millions dollars of George Steinbrenner’s cold hard cash. There had been speculation for several years that the struggling Twins would deal hot commodity Knoblauch, and eventually he himself demanded to be traded to a contender.
 
Knoblauch was coming off a stretch of four sensational seasons in which he made three all-star teams, hitting .318 and stealing 188 bases. His 127 OPS+ over that stretch was three points better than that of Roberto Alomar.
 
The trade would ultimately go down as a win-win. Knoblauch was uneven as a Yankee. We all know about his struggles throwing the ball to first base. He continued to swing a solid stick, though, and the Yankees won the World Series in each of his first three seasons in New York.
 
Cristian Guzman, meanwhile, was the Twins’ starting shortstop for six seasons, leading the league in triples three times. He never realized his full potential, but Twins fans sure saw some sparks from the exciting speedster. Milton jumped straight into the starting rotation, giving the Twins five solid seasons, highlighted by a no-hitter on September 11, 1999. Another highlight came on April 15, 2001 when Milton struck out eight of the first 10 White Sox he faced.
 
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February 9, 1902
It’s the Birthday of Julie Wera


 
Julie Wera, who played 38 games at third base for the vaunted ‘27 Yankees, was born in Winona, MN on this date in 1902. The 25-year-old Wera made his major league debut at Yankee Stadium on April 14, 1927, pinch-hitting for Hall of Famer Waite Hoyt against Hall of Famer Lefty Grove. He grounded out. Wera hit his one and only big league homer during a doubleheader at Yankee Stadium on July 4, 1927 in front of a then-record crowd of 74,000.
 
Wera did not play in the 1927 World Series in which the Yankees swept the Pirates. He did, however, receive the same $5,782 portion of the winners’ purse as the rest of his teammates, which included Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth. Nice bonus, considering that Wera’s ‘27 salary was reported to be $2,400.
 
Julie Wera died of a heart attack at his home in Rochester, MN on December 12, 1975. He was 73 years old.
 
Read J.G. Preston’s SABR BioProject biography of Julie Wera: http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/2dc33add
 
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February 10
Happy 24th Birthday to Max Kepler


 
It's the birthday of Twins outfielder Max Kepler, born in Berlin, Germany in 1993.
 
Playing Cleveland at Target Field on August 1, 2016, Kepler became the fifth player in Twins history to hit three home runs in a game. The previous four were Bob Allison ('63), Harmon Killebrew ('63), Tony Oliva ('73), and Justin Morneau ('07). Brian Dozier joined the club on September 5, 2016.
 
Kepler's 3-HR game was the beginning of a historic offensive outburst for the team as a whole. Mired in one of the worst seasons in franchise history, the Twins hit a team record 19 extra-base hits over a two-game span.
 
They set a milestone in the third game of the series, too, putting up 10 runs in three straight games against the same team for the first time. They had scored 10 runs in three straight games before, but not against the same team. They would lose the fourth game of the series 2-9.
 

February 10, 2014
Terry Ryan Reveals Cancer Diagnosis


 
The Twins release a statement on behalf of 60-year-old General Manager Terry Ryan revealing that he has been diagnosed with skin cancer in his neck.
 
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February 11, 1985
Kent Hrbek Cashes In


 
1978 Bloomington Kennedy High School grad Kent Hrbek signs a 5-year, 6 million dollar contract, meaning he would be the first player in Twins history to earn a million dollars for a single season’s work. Hrbek celebrated by going ice fishing outside his Lake Minnetonka home.
 
 
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It wasn't the 11th hour, but times were getting desperate in Los Angeles. The Dodgers had spent the entire winter talking with the Minnesota Twins about the possibility of acquiring All Star second basemen Brian Dozier. Needing a second basemen to fix a glaring hole occupied by the aging Chase Utley a season ago, the Dodgers needed to act. In the end, they did, but it wasn't with the Twins.
 
Trading pitching prospect Jose De Leon to the Tampa Bay Rays for Logan Forysthe, the Dodgers found their man. Forsythe is 30 years old, and under team control for the next two years (with an $8.5m team option for 2018). He was worth 2.8 fWAR in 2016, 4.0 in 2014, and -0.5 three years ago in 2014.
 
How does that stack up against the Twins Dozier? Brian is just a bit younger still at 29, but is also under team control for each of the next two seasons. He was worth 5.9 fWAR as an All Star in 2016, and has been worth 2.5, 4.7, and 3.3 fWAR from 2013-2015 respectively. While very similar, the Twins two bagger is the slightly superior big leaguer.
 
In dealing De Leon straight up for Forsythe, the Twins position that there man was worth more than a 1-for-1 deal becomes immediately justified. Where the Twins maybe outkicked their coverage, was in who they were asking for along with the top pitching prospect. Names like Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, and Cody Bellinger were all thrown around. Los Angeles had no compelling reason to move any of those three, and it's understandable why they'd draw a line there. Had Minnesota stepped back to Brock Stewart or Willie Calhoun, they may have found a more willing dance partner.
 
At the end of the day, it comes down to opportunity cost for Los Angeles. In nabbing Forsythe, they get a lesser second basemen than the one the originally were targeting, but they also hold onto more of their assets. De Leon has some shoulder concerns, and the Dodgers have been said to be lower on him than other organizations may be. While Stewart and Calhoun aren't top tier guys, they provide strong depth that now stays on the farm. Los Angeles decided the added boost from Dozier wasn't worth the premium price tag.
 
With it being all but certain now that Dozier stays in Minnesota for the forseeable future, the Twins have left themselves with a couple different realities at play. First and foremost, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stepped in and had an immediate strong showing. As noted at the end of Nick Nelson's piece, the way in which the front office stood their ground was impressive, and is something Terry Ryan probably wasn't known for. It will absolutely influence how other teams go about business with the Twins new brass in the future.
 
Secondly though, the Twins have kept one of the best second basemen in all of baseball on their roster. The harm in that in and of itself is nil, the downside comes in how he is supported. At this point, the free agent market is left with virtual holdovers saved for a few names. There's not a significant impact player or two that is going to turn the Twins reality around. Dozier deserves to have talent brought in to supplement his play, but spending to do so is something the former regime wound up doing far too often.
 
Instead, the Twins should sit and wait. Last season was a mirage of sorts in that the club wasn't the blueprint of a 103 loss team. Pitching was awful, and the offense was nonexistent at times, but the youth expected to carry the group mostly was trying to find its way. You can make the argument that even an upward trend towards mediocrity should give the Twins a realistic shot at something like 80 wins in 2017, and that'd be a heck of a turnaround in and of itself.
 
That being said, Dozier can dictate how Falvey and Levine support him. Should he back up his incredible 2016, or really just stay somewhere in the middle of his past two seasons, he could become a trade candidate to a contender in July. More likely though, he gives Minnesota some strong play, and factors into their 2018 plans as well. With money owed to Glen Perkins and Joe Mauer quickly nearing a close, Minnesota will have plenty of funds at its disposal to bring in impact players both on the mound and in the field for the 2018 season.
 
Right now, the Cleveland Indians remain well positioned in the AL Central. Outside of that though, the Royals are treading water, the Tigers are aging, and the White Sox are reliant on a full scale rebuild. If the Twins want to spend and supplement a year from now, it's hard to scoff at the idea they'd have a shot at being at least a divisional contender.
 
Stocking the farm is something that Levine and Falvey need to make a priority. The reason it's bare though, is because of the talent having graduated to the big league level. It'll be on the backs of the former top prospects that a turnaround needs to happen for the Twins. Asking Brian Dozier to be a part of that is far from a bad idea, and spending on the group as a whole a year from now would make everyone happy.
 
As Spring Training approached, the Dodgers balked on the game of chicken first. They looked at an opportunity cost being too steep and went a different direction. The haul Minnesota likely deserved was never there, and the organization was right by holding serve. Now it'll be on them to follow up the second half of the process and make Dozier feel supported throughout the lineup.
 
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