tarheeltwinsfan

While I certainly chat with the white whales this offseason (Cole, Strasburg, Rendon), ultimately none land in Minnesota. That doesn't mean the offseason cannot be a success. I move forward with the following:
 
Zach Wheeler - 4 years/76 million
Mike Moustakas - 3 years/42 million
Jake Odorizzi - 3 years/39 million
Will Smith - 3 years/35 million
Jason Castro - 1 year/6 million
 
Trade AWAY Eddie Rosario for prospects
Trade FOR David Peralta for prospects (Net +1.3 million for trades)
 
Non-Tender - Cron
Pass on Martin Perez (+.5 million)
I'd also bring back Gibson on a minor league deal if he'd accept and see how he performs in the spring...if okay, perhaps break camp with him instead of Graterol to begin year.
 
This means:
C - Garver
1B - Sano
2B - Arraez
SS - Polanco
3B - Moustakas
LF - Peralta
CF - Buxton
RF - Kepler
DH - Cruz
Bench - Castro, Gonzalez, Adrianza, Cave, Wade
 
SP - Wheeler, Berrios, Odorizzi, Dobnak, Graterol (Gibson?)
RP - Rogers, Smith, Duffey, May, Littel, Stashak, Smeltzer/Thorpe
 
Total Payroll: 137 million
 
I really wanted to bring back Pineda, however salary was not going to work while missing a portion of the year. The addition of Smith could shorten games for the inevitable shuffle at the back end of the rotation, however would rather spend on a guy like Smith then take a chance on the starters that could come for similar money.
 
I think Wheeler is the home run get for the Twins...hampered a bit by the Mets dysfunction, but electric stuff that wont cost what the two top guys will.
 
I try to extend Buxton/Berrios, just not sure that's gonna get done. So didn't even try and go there here.
 
I prefer Peralta over Rosario despite the age difference as I only am planning on Peralta for one year. And he won a gold glove this past season (for what that is worth), but really wanted him for the quality at-bats he will provide versus Rosario.
 
Believe the hitters provide good flexibility position-wise and the team has okay depth when the inevitable injury hits.
 
No monster prospect trades allow for in-season deals to again be considered, also allows the team to see Larnach for a second year, see if Lewis continues AFL success, see if Kirilloff continues to make strides hopefully without injury.
 
The concentration of LH hitters is a potential concern, especially if Sano/Cruz either don't remain healthy or don't produce. However, I could see the lineup being just as potent as this year (assuming MLB doesn't mess with the ball) and believe the rotation should be better overall 1-5 and bullpen should at least be on par with what we saw the last two months in 2019.

If the Minnesota Twins are going to put a focus on adding impact pitching this offseason, the reality is they’ll need to venture outside of free agency to accomplish their goals. Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg represent commodities rarely seen on the open market, and they both could be called home to California. I definitely am in on making Zack Wheeler an offer he can’t turn down, but things get messy from there. With prospect capital and some expendable big leaguers, the time to swing a deal appears ideal as well.
 
There’s little reason for any team to part with their best pitcher regardless of current situation. Luis Castillo is an absolute stud in Cincinnati, but the Reds just made a move to get Trevor Bauer last season. Instead of targeting the slam dunk, Minnesota needs to go and find their version of Cole or Justin Verlander or follow the White Sox footsteps in acquiring a guy like Lucas Giolito. All those arms are among the best in the game, but that same definition couldn’t be applied when they switched teams.
 
So, where do the Twins turn their focus?
 
Colorado Rockies- Jon Gray or German Marquez
 
Under team control for two more seasons, Gray was the third overall pick in the 2013 draft. He has sandwiched two strong seasons around a clunker over the course of the last three. The strikeouts are there, and so too is the velocity. Walks are a bit problematic, and the longball has hurt him while playing at Coors Field. Get him to Target Field and let Wes Johnson work some magic.
 
A teammate of Gray, German Marquez is also very intriguing. He’s younger, under team control for a year longer, and arguably has the better profile. Another strikeout arm, who possesses strong command, has been bit heavily by the longball in Colorado. Despite the 4.76 ERA in 2019, Marquez owned a 3.54 xFIP which followed up a 3.10 mark the year prior. He was my dark horse Cy Young pick this season, and he absolutely looked the part for stretches.
 
Pittsburgh Pirates- Joe Musgrove
 
Another former first round pick, Musgrove would be on his third team if dealt, but he too is not a free agent until 2023. He’s never posted a sub 4.00 ERA and the K/9 has never entered 9.0 territory. He doesn’t issue many walks, is moderate with the home run, and could be just a few tweaks from the next step. His hard-hit rate spiked to a career worst 37% this season, but he’s never generated more whiffs. If the Twins believe in their pitching infrastructure, here’s another arm they could salivate about working with.
 
Detroit Tigers- Matthew Boyd
 
The end result couldn’t be further from where he was at the midway point, but Boyd’s final 11.6 K/9 is nasty. He has yet to put it together over the course of a full season, but 2019 was definitely the closest he’s been, and the 3.88 xFIP tells a fairer story. You may pay a premium dealing within the division, but Detroit isn’t going to be good before Boyd hits free agency in 2023. He was dangled at the deadline, and the winter may provide more opportunity.
 
Atlanta Braves- Max Fried or Mike Foltynewicz
 
Brian Snitker has his ace in the form of Mike Soroka. This team is going to be good for a while, but they also have some very real holes to fill. Fried would have a massive price tag being under team control through 2024, but his first full season as a starter went well. The 4.02 ERA was backed by a 3.72 FIP and 3.32 xFIP. He has strikeout stuff and was able to take a big step forward in the command department.
 
Having been demoted to Triple-A, and roughed up in his final Postseason appearance, Mike Foltynewicz may benefit from a change of scenery. After generating Cy Young votes a season ago, he put up a 4.54 ERA in 2019. After heading to the farm with a 6.37 mark through June, Folty returned to the tune of a 2.65 ERA across his final 10 starts. If there’s an opportunity to take advantage here, Minnesota would be wise to do so.
 
Arizona Diamondbacks- Robbie Ray
 
Another guy that was talked about heavily during the deadline, Ray is entering the final year of arbitration eligibility. He’s posted a 12.0 K/9 or better for the past three seasons, and while durability concerns persist, he’s electric while on the bump. The walk and home run rates aren’t pretty, but given the length of his contract, he could also have one of the lower acquisition costs across moveable assets. This Twins front office is also familiar with Arizona having swung the Eduardo Escobar deal a couple of seasons ago.
 
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Overall, it's not hard to be excited about the Twins in 2020 given a 101 win season in 2019. The ending certainly wasn't ideal, but 2019 showed us that our window is open and it should be for a few years. Cleveland remains the only real competition in the central. Chicago is up and coming, but they are likely another year or two away before they can have a realistic shot of competing. KC and Detroit are dumpster fires right now. So with that in mind, it's up to Falvey and Levine to construct a roster that can not only win the central but advance deep into the post season.
 
There's no question that starting pitching is our biggest need, and if I were running the team, this is where I would focus if I were them, but we need to start by trimming and expanding the roster in advance of the Rule V draft. The Twins already made the easiest of moves by picking up Nelson Cruz's option, but it gets a bit tougher from here: This is our current 40 man roster. The following players are free agents: Gibson, Odorizzi, Schoop, Romo, and Castro. That leaves us at 36 before changes are made. I'd DFA/nontender/trade if someone wants to give up something for the following as well: Sam Dyson, Kohl Stewart, Ronald Torreyes, Ryan Lamarre, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ian Miller. I would also not pick up Perez's option. That brings us down to 28 guys on the roster going into winter meetings. Buxton and Poppen will most definitely return, so that moves us up to 30. CJ Cron is a bit of a wild card here. His play may not be worth the money spent on tendering him, but there's no replacement waiting in the wings just yet (more on him in a bit, but I haven't removed his spot). So as it stands right now, we need the following (several starting pitchers, a backup catcher, an 2B (though there's a replacement in house), possibly a 1B, and if possible another shut down reliever). Other than starting pitching help, this team is in pretty good shape...
 
So on that note, I'm going to start by tendering Odorizzi a QO, with the clear desire to sign him to a 3 year deal. I'm going to guestimate that at 3/45 to make it work, as the 17M QO is probably the starting point to a negotiation. Jake was very good for us this year, but I'm not sure he's good enough for teams to surrender a pick and pay him 50+M on a multi-year deal. That brings the roster to 31. With Odorizzi at 17M, our current payroll sits at 48M. I'm going to tender the following candidates with a note that I'd be willing to extend any extension candidate willing to sign a reasonable deal. Some players won't sign them (Buxton for sure as his value is low due to health), but I suspect a couple guys likely sign a longer term contract.
Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
Trevor May – $2.1MM (extension candidate)
Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM (I'd stay year to year here, I could see trading him if a better FA option was available, but I'm most likely tendering him)
Miguel Sano – $5.9MM (extension candidate)
Byron Buxton – $2.9MM (extension candidate)
Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM (extension candidate)
Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM (extension candidate)
Jose Berrios – $5.4MM (extension candidate)

That's an additional 32.1M. Add Garver in there as he's not going anywhere, but his total is about .5M. That leaves payroll at roughly 81M without Cron. Cron's arb estimate is around 7.7M, which isn't terrible for a .780 OPS. He's roughly an average bat at 1B. The problem with him though is that there aren't ML ready options to take his place... not now at least. Rooker, Raley and Weil could use more seasoning, and Kirilloff is also questionable at this point. Next year at this time, one of those guys will hopefully be knocking at the door or perhaps even had some success at the major league level, but I'm not sure there should be a plan to count on a rookie to perform. Surveying the FA market, you have a couple options available. Josh Donaldson would likely be my primary target, as he could also play 3B giving Baldelli some flexibility with Sano/Garver at 1B on occasion as well. I doubt he comes cheap, and certainly not cheaper than Cron. He's likely going to get something similar to his salary last season and quite possibly a multi-year deal, so I'd guess around 20M. Zimmerman, Rizzo, and Thames all have club options available, and to be honest there really isn't much in terms of sure fire help out there. I don't think trading for a 1B makes any sense at all unless there's someone who is essentially on the last year of his deal and performing. In all, I think tendering Cron is the right answer here unless they know they can get Donaldson... and I doubt that. So I tender him at 7.7M bringing our payroll up to roughly 89M.
 
I'm not quite sure who all needs protecting and exposing. I'm using roster resource and protecting anyone that has R5 or Dec 19 as their status if their play warrants it. That said, I know this tool isn't completely accurate, so hopefully I haven't missed anyone. I see 10 names that warrant discussion. Let's start with the easy ones:
 
Candidates:
Griffin Jax (protect)
Luke Raley (protect)
Jake Reed (expose. He was not good last year)
Zander Wiel (expose. He was not good last year)

It gets a bit more difficult from here.
Travis Blankenhorn - He will likely get a crack at AAA in his age 23 season. He had a .785 OPS in AA, and really does seem to be turning a corner. Those numbers are nothing special, but question at hand is can he stick on a ML roster. I don't think it's worth the risk. I protect him.
Jhoan Duran - Duran likely starts in AA in his age 22 season, though he could also be promoted as he did spent some time there. He does a fantastic job keeping the ball in the park. His walk rate is acceptable and he doesn't give a lot of hits. He's kept his K rate around 10/9 IP for the last 2 seasons. I protect him.
Dakota Chalmers - Chalmers is a sleeper. I could see a bad team poaching him and stashing him with their extra spot as he will be 23 next season. The MLB roster size expands to 26 in 2020, and I think bad teams will use that to grab players like Chalmers with upside who may be exposed. The Twins have a few of them and ultimately I think someone gets left off. Chalmers is posting some sexy strike out numbers striking out 48 in 34 innings of relief work. He's also very stingy with the long ball. His walk rate though is scary as he gave 23 free passes. Bottom line for Chalmers is that right now, he won't do well on a major league roster. His AFL performance to date has not changed my view of this. I'm going to expose him.
Tom Hackimer - Hackimer pitched pretty well in his age 25 season in AA. He's one that could possibly stick in a mop up role in MLB. I lean towards not protecting him as well given his age. He got the strikeouts this season, his walk rate was a bit high at just over 4 per 9 innings but overall had a pretty good season between high A and AA. He likely starts in AA or AAA, but I'm going to expose him.
Jovani Moran - Moran is a similar pitcher to Chalmers if you look at the numbers. He gets lots of strikeouts and gives up too many free passes though he tends to be prone to the long ball. He will also be 23 next season. He's another one risking losing, but I think I expose him.
Tyler Wells - Wells is the hardest one. He was absolutely money in the minors but TJS derailed his 2019 season before it started. He will be rehabbing and should be able to pitch most of the year. I think the upside is too good to risk this, so I keep him.

That leaves us with 5 additions. Our roster now sits at 36. We need to figure out at least 2 starting pitchers, a backup C, and ideally a shutdown RP. We're also sitting on a couple individuals (Harper, Poppen, and Gonsalves) that I'd like to keep but could be set free in the event a better opportunity comes along through cost cutting or trade.
 
Falvey and Levine stated they weren't afraid to blow up the payroll when the windows is open, so now it's time to see if they will put the Pohlad's money to the test. They need pitching help badly, and having someone that can sit in front of Odorizzi and Berrios is a must in my opinion. Sign Gerrit Cole or Steven Strassburg (if he opts out) to a 5 or 6 year deal at 30M/season. That's probably what it will take to get either one of them. Feasibly, they could get them both and still have payroll sitting south of 150M, but I'm guessing that won't happen as much as I'd like and there are other needs I'd rather address... But they have to go big here, even if that means out bidding the competition by a significant margin. That moves payroll to $119M and gives us a pretty nice starting trio in Cole, Berrios, and Odorizzi. I'm guessing there's a QO attached here too for Cole at least, and I sacrifice the pick.
 
They still need 2 more pitchers. I'm fine letting Dobnak, Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Smeltzer compete for one of the spots. Most of these guys did well enough that I'm not losing sleep over the role. It's Dobnak's to lose at this point, but he earned it in limited looks. The reality is that unless there's a trade in the works that involves sending one or two of these guys off as part of a deal for a more established option such as say Mike Minor, I think this spot is going to go to pre-arb guys. That's another 500k on the payroll. Note that I didn't mention Graterol. I'm assuming he's going to remain as a starter, but that also means he's capped at about 120 innings. He could be this guy as well, but I think he could pair well with Michael Pineda if they bring him back... which brings me to my next FA target:
 
There are a few names I'd probably target here, they will have varying costs/years attached to them: Bumgardner, Wheeler, and Pineda would likely be my top 3. I'm personally not sold on Ryu from the Dodgers, but if my analytics guys liked him, then perhaps he's an option as well. Pineda actually pairs well with Graterol in that he can be stretched out and be the 5th starter in April/May and switch more to long relief/spot starting as the season wears on and Pineda returns from his suspension. That would keep Graterol's innings around 120 for the year (baring injury of course, which with Graterol is not low risk). Pineda would have been a QO option had he not been suspended. With roughly 40 days left on his suspension and of course the risk that he gets suspended again for longer, he's likely going to sign for much less than that. I'd offer him a 1/7 make good deal unless of course there's an unexpected price drop for the other guys on this list. That also means Graterol is on the 26 man, so that's another 500k to add to the payroll. If one of these other big names sign, I'm likely going to give Graterol a late start to his season in AAA and stretch him out to be the spot starter for the inevitable pitching injury. Once he gets closer to his 120, I'd shift him to the MLB pen during the stretch run.
 
If you're keeping track at this point, I've added another 8M here and now I'm sitting at roughly 127M.
 
Next up, I target a catcher. I'm not liking the idea of going with Astrudillo as my backup C. Rortvedt and Jeffers may be knocking at the door next year at this time, but counting on either in 2020 would not be wise. Astrudillo, while a fan favorite, still has options and is extremely valuable to the team earning frequent flier miles between Rochester and Minneapolis when someone gets hurt, so I'm going to sign someone. Retaining Castro is fine in my opinion if he's OK with a backup role. I'm looking though for no more than a two year deal. Castro works fine here, but I'd also target Austin Romine, Brian McCann, or Steven Voght. I'd be fine sacrificing a few home runs for some OBP. These guys are not young, so they won't be getting a huge deal. I'm going to guess it will be somewhere around 2/10-15, giving you a 5-8M cost in payroll. I'm going to assume this is 6M for now, bringing payroll up to 133.
 
Last, I'm targeting a RP. I didn't learn my lesson about free agent relievers (and hopefully I'll update that blog at some point later this month), and there's 1 FA reliever that I want on this team and think that Falvey should pay for. I'm targeting Will Smith and spending what it takes to get him. I'm guessing he's signing for a 3-4 year deal at 10M+. He signed a 3/24 deal with SF in his last go around, and I have to think he's going to get at least that. I'm going to assume 3/30, but I'd be willing to pay more.
 
That brings payroll up to 143.
 
My 26 man roster is now as follows:
C - Garver
1B - Cron
2B - Arraez or Gordon
3B - Sano
SS - Polanco
CF - Buxton
RF/LF - Rosario/Kepler
DH - Cruz
 
SP
Cole/Strassburg, Berrios, Odorizzi, Graterol/Pineda or other pitching FA, Dobnak
 
RP
Smith, May, Duffey, Rodgers, Littell, Graterol, Harper (I'd have some open competition, but these are who I've penciled in).
 
Bench
Adrianza, Cave, Castro or other FA, Gonzalez
 
I didn't count the salaries of Littell, Harper, and Cave or whomever internally would beat them out which comes out to another 1.5M. That puts my total payroll at roughly 144.5. I would hope this could go up a bit if my estimates were a bit low, but there's room there in my opinion.
 
So there you have it. We can add a top shelf starter and relief pitcher and keep our payroll under 150M. I'm not sure what the front office will target, but this seems like a very reasonable option to field a very competitive team in 2020 and one with a good shot of advancing deep in the post season.

If there’s a lineup fixture from the 2019 Minnesota Twins that Derek Falvey should look to move before 2020, it’s Eddie Rosario. Despite lacking outfield depth down the stretch, the organization should be flush with options in the coming season, and a cheap commodity could be picked up on the open market. When trying to capitalize on return, this is the time. The elephant in the room is whether any of the other 29 teams see adequate value.
 
You’ll quickly hear that Rosario hit a career high 32 dingers this season, and he plated 109 runs. His .276 average was the lowest it’s been since 2016, but his .500 SLG just missed being a career high. Entering his second year of arbitration eligibility he’s projected to get just shy of $9 million (per MLB Trade Rumors), and performance would only create an increase from there. If we stop at that then there’s little reason not to be enamored by his performance.
 
It’s when you consider that Rosario produced just a .300 OBP, .329 wOBA, and 103 wRC+ (100 is league average). He’s still the guy that doesn’t walk at all (3.7%) and has no relative clue where the strike zone is (46.3% chase rate). In the Postseason he was an absolute abomination, and even his “good” production in game three came through pitches he had no business generating positive results off. Unfortunately stepping out of the batter’s box doesn’t make it any better.
 
During his debut season Rosario posted an 11 DRS in the outfield. His 16 assists were reflective of a strong arm and astute mind that constantly had him in position to make a play. His arm still performs above average (he had 8 assists in 2019) but the DRS dropped all the way to -8. He posted a career worst -5.6 UZR ranking 44th among 50 qualifying outfielders. Often looking disengaged, and if not then overmatched, defensive prowess is no longer a calling card of his.
 
When Falvey and Thad Levine approach the opposition this winter, they’ll be looking to engage trade partners for pitching. Dangling Rosario as a preferred trade chip, they’ll be working with the premise that the best is yet to come. Their sell must be in the form of a 28-year-old still waiting to hit his peak, and one that can do significantly more than his 1.2 fWAR this season. At $9 million he’s no longer a cheap commodity, and team control isn’t appealing if Rosario becomes a non-tender player a year from now.
 
You can bet that those in the game are smarter than getting sucked in by hollow production stats largely derived by the 127 starts out of the cleanup spot. Minnesota won’t likely see the return they seek in a one for one swap and making Eddie the foundation of a deal could result in a project or fresh situation type of return. There’s nothing wrong with both sides in a trade coming out as winners, but unlike the Aaron Hicks deal of a few seasons ago, it’s Minnesota that will be pawning off promise as opposed to projectable production.
 
Rocco Baldelli probably isn’t thrilled about the idea of rookies Brent Rooker, Trevor Larnach, or Alex Kirilloff starting in the Opening Day outfield for a team coming off 100+ wins. Those prospects could immediately force play their way into action though, and a veteran presence manning the fort vacated by Rosario until they are ready is hardly a difficult ask. Much like Byron Buxton being mentioned in talks for the Mets Noah Syndergaard, Rosario was representative of an immovable asset during the season. While Buxton is still untouchable for a handful of reasons, it’s Rosario that now is unprotected by current clubhouse chemistry.
 
We will sit on wait on a potential deal to be consummated, but while we do there must be an understanding that the front office will need to be astute salesmen while getting any swap done.
 
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The Twins hot start this year coincided with Jorge Polanco's. Since Polanco has fallen back to earth the Twins once "insurmountable lead" has turned a division front runner into a division contender. Throughout the season we've seen players move around the lineup based on the usual reasons (opposing pitcher, hot/cold/ other players in lineup), what we haven' consistently seen is Polanco hit anywhere but the two spot. If that spot is reserved for the hottest or best hitter then we should be seeing Kepler or Arraez in that spot. In either case those two should be batting 1 or 2 in the lineup.
This isn't a slight toward Polanco as he's more than a serviceable hitter but the way he's hitting right now isn't a top of of the lineup hitter. Who knows, maybe moving down in the lineup will re-awaken his bat and he can carry the team to the division title.

This is an excerpt form an article which originates at Zone Coverage. Click here to read it in full.
 
This isn't the first time Devin Smeltzer has been summoned to the Twin Cities to replace an ailing Michael Pineda on the Minnesota Twins' 25-man roster.
 
That came back in late May.
 
But if how the young lefty has thrown in his big-league stints has been any indication, there might not be many more recalls -- he's been that impressive.
 
The last time we saw the lefty on a big-league mound, he was giving the Twins a massive lift on July 24. Their pitching staff was in tatters, and after Jake Odorizzi was bounced early that night by a powerful Yankees offense, Smeltzer jumped in and cleaned up the final five innings of the game, allowing just a solo homer to Edwin Encarnacion while allowing the offense to claw back and at least make a game of it late.
 
His reward was being sent back out right after the game in a seemingly endless cycling of pitchers between Rochester and Minnesota leading up to the trade deadline -- but he wasn't there for long.
 
Smeltzer got word that he would be needed to start on Sunday sometime Saturday and arrived in Minneapolis with plenty of time to prepare for Sunday's start.He couldn't have looked more locked in.
 
Smeltzer and three relievers combined for a two-hit shutout of the Kansas City Royals in a 3-0 win -- and it was threes across the board.

Three runs scored
Three wins in the series
Three games up in the Central

 
There was also one very notable one in there as well -- it was Smeltzer's first MLB win.The offense wasn't terrific, as Royals righty Brad Keller held them at bay for much of the afternoon, but they got just enough production -- both in terms of manufacturing runs and driving the ball out of the ballpark -- to steal a sweep and grab their 69th win of the season.
 
Nice.

For weeks it's been apparent that the Minnesota Twins need bullpen help. As we've gotten closer to the trade deadline the certainty that moves would be made has only become more clear. Tonight while in the midst of a battle with the Chicago White Sox, Derek Falvey was working the phones and landed RHP Sergio Romo from the Miami Marlins.
 
Romo was a free agent this offseason and signed with Miami on a one-year, $2.5 million pact. He was someone I liked for the Twins but the front office decided to stand pat after the acquisition of Blake Parker. Romo was abysmal to start the season for Miami but has been lights out of late, and his dominant slider remains as good as it's ever been.
 
Since May 22nd Romo has pitched in 22 games going 21.2 IP. He has a 2.49 ERA and a .585 OPS against. The strikeouts have been down this year and he was at just 16/3 K/BB over that stretch, but the stuff may be as good as it's ever been. Right now he owns a whiff rate near 14% in 2019 and his 40% chase rate is a career best.
 
When you've been doing this for as long as Romo has, and without ever being a velocity pitcher, it's the offspeed stuff that must work. Sergio throws his slider nearly 60% of the time and it's continued to be an incredible offering. His slider posts an RPM of 2852 which is 9th best among sliders in baseball this season.
 
Falvey obviously had to part with an asset in trade, and choosing Lewin Diaz makes a lot of sense here. He's a 22-year-old that posted a sub-.600 OPS at Fort Myers last season. Having put in significant work to get his body right this winter, he's having a breakout campaign with 19 HRs and an OPS north of .900 split between A+/AA. That's really where the good news for the Twins and Diaz ends however.
 
Lewin would need to be added to the 40 man roster this winter or be subject to the Rule 5 draft. He went unprotected and unchosen last year, but that wasn't going to happen after the results this year. In that scenario the Twins lose him for nothing. He's a great defender at first and a nice power bat, but he's also behind at least Miguel Sano, Brent Rooker, and Alex Kirilloff for major league reps at first base in the not-so-distant future.
 
This wasn't a one for one trade either. Minnesota also got back 2018 5th round pick Chris Vallimont from the Marlins. He's pitching at Low-A currently as a starter and the righty has been a high strikeout, low walk hurler in his young pro career. He too is 22-years-old but is not subject to 40 man necessity yet and gives the Twins depth on the mound, where they need it more. Reports have also suggested Minnesota picks up a PTBNL in the deal.
 
It would be hard to see a Diaz for Vallimont swap as anything but a win for Minnesota. They get a more usable asset and the expiration date is pushed out. If the assumption was that Diaz could be packaged to net a bigger return that's one thing, but you'd have to imagine Falvey explored those options as well. This isn't going to be the Twins only move, and probably not even their only move for the pen. As a first deal though, they smashed this one out of the park.
 
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I attended dozens of Twins games every year in the mid-90's as a kid. I sat through lineups composed of Otis Nixon, Butch Huskey, Midre Cummings and Rich Becker. I watched rotations that featured Scott Aldred, Bob Tewksbury and Rich Robertson.
 
Then, the 2000's happened. On one hand, it was very fun to see the Twins consistently contend for the playoffs and win 85-95 games every year. But the team never went out and traded for that one missing piece that would get them over the top and make them legitimate World Series contenders.
 
In the Metrodome years, it was understandable that they would be hesitant to take on contracts like those. The revenue streams were not there to support a $125 million payroll. Fine, so be it.
 
Then Target Field opened and fans were treated to what seemed to be a magical 2010 season. They had everything but a true #1 starter. Rumors flew around at the deadline, with names like Cliff Lee being floated as possibilities for the team to acquire at the deadline. We got Matt Capps, and were promptly swept by the Yankees in the first round.
 
Then, this time as a season ticket holder, I got to watch such studs as Darin Mastroianni, Chris Parmelee and Doug Bernier at the plate, while Mike Pelfrey, Sam Deduno and Scott Diamond "pitched" during the 2011-2018 seasons.
 
Meanwhile, the Twins raked in the money with revenue from the new ballpark and a new TV contract.
 
So forgive me if my patience has worn thin, and I am not content to just "enjoy the ride." I have been a loyal, money-paying, tv-watching, jersey-wearing fan for 35 years. It's time for the ownership to reward me, and the others who have been through the same thing, by unlocking the money bin and making some serious moves to become an actual World Series contender, not just a division crown contender.
 
I think the Twins need upgrades in the rotation and the bullpen. The team has the money and the prospects to get it done, right now. I personally don't give a crap if Trevor Larnach turns out to be a 10 time all star after he is traded if he brings back a player that can help the team win right now. Think of Shields/Davis coming to the Royals for Wil Meyers. Do any Royals fans really care if Meyers becomes a Hall of Famer after they traded him? I doubt it.
 
Don't think Madison Bumgarner is an upgrade over Kyle Gibson? Great. I can respectfully disagree with your opinion. However, calling fans who would like a trade "barbarians" (as Reusse did today) or talking down to people who aren't content to stand pat and see what happens, is just so frustrating.
 
It's great if you are fine to let the Pohlads rake in the dough and try to back their way into titles, that's your prerogative. I just think the narrative of fans who would like to see moves made being idiots, or bad fans, is growing tiresome.
 
Despite what Patrick Reusse, Jim Souhan or even commenters here might say, I personally think it's okay for fans to want more. We have waited long enough, and some of us aren't content with division championships.

With the trade deadline quickly approaching Twins fans are rightly focused on adding pitching to the major league roster. The offensive is still on a record setting home run pace and has great major and minor league depth, so any offensive additions would be superfluous. However, the Twins may be able to add by subtraction.
 
Jonathan Schoop may have been the least significant off season offense upgrade the Twins added due to the savvy additions of Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzales. However, the front office still had high hopes for Schoop who was signed on a one year deal. Schoop, of course was an all-star in 2017, when he had a career year with Baltimore slashing .293/.338/.503 for an OPS of .841. He mashed 32 long balls and 105 RBI in a 160 games. Schoop came crashing back down to earth in 2018 with and ugly .682 OPS between Baltimore and Milwaukee. While Falvey and company many have been dreaming of a return to 2017, it certainly wasn’t out of the question to expect something closer to Schoop's career averages.
 
And to be fair to Schoop this is what he has done. He is currently slashing .256/.305/.458 for an OPS of .763 while playing slightly above average second base. This is even slightly better than Schoop’s career averages. He has been good for 1.5 Bref WAR and by all accounts is a beloved member in the clubhouse. However, while Schoop looked like his former 2017 self coming out of the gate (OPS of .819 through May 31), more recently he has looked like the Schoop of 2018 (OPS of .672 since June 1). More frustrating to fans, Schoop seems to excel in blowout games (how many garbage time HRs has he hit?) while consistently striking out in “clutch” situations. The numbers seem to back up the eye as Schoop is hitting .163/.230/.438 with RISP and .205/.279/.231 in late inning pressure situations. The problem is with a lineup full of power hitters, Schoop becomes a bit redundant, and more importantly the Twins have better options for second base. Plenty of them as it turns out. Let’s take a look.
 
All Arraez
 
Luis Arraez has been nothing short of amazing in his first big league stint. He is currently slashing .385/.444/.510 for an OPS of .955. In 29 games he has already accumulated 1.1 Bref WAR. Arraez is obviously playing a bit over his head right now, but he has been a good hitter throughout his minor league career and between AA-AAA this year he hit .344/.409/.401. He is not going to hit .400 or slug over .500 long term but his plate approach is very refreshing. On a team of free swingers and power hitters Arraez looks like a nice table setter and in his short time with the twins has come up with several “clutch” hits. His rather twitchy batting style is also extremely entertaining to watch. Arraez has played all over the field for the Twins, including third base, short stop, and left field, but he is clearly best suited for second base where he has spent the majority of his minor league career. Arraez is firmly implanted as the front runner for second base next year and it is also becoming increasingly apparent that he is the answer now.
 
The Others
 
Both Marwin Gonzales and Ehire Adrianza currently appear to be better options than Schoop at second base as well. A large part of the value in both of these players is their versatility, so sticking Arraez at second clearly makes the most sense. However, were something to happen to Arraez both of these players are more than capable of filling in. Both players started the year ice cold so their stats took a bit of a dip because of this (pretty much the opposite of Schoop). Gonzales currently has an OPS of .748 with a 1.9 Bref War and Adrianza has a .788 OPS with a 1.1 Bref War in only 148 plate appearances. If one of them were to fill in at second for Schoop (or Arraez) the other would still be available for the utility role.
 
What to do with Schoop?
 
Cutting Schoop is probably ill advised. Although it would give more at bats to the previously mention trio, Schoop has played well enough that cutting him wouldn’t really make sense. Could he be traded for pitching? This is very unlikely as he is on a one-year deal and the Twins will most likely be trading with non-contenders who are uninterested in a rental. There are, however, a couple of long-shot possibilities. One would be a three-way trade with Schoop going to another contender (presumably because of an injuring to the team’s second baseman) and a pitcher from the third non-contending club coming to the twins. Another possibility could be Schoop being a thrown-in to offshoot an incoming player’s salary (similar to the Twins acquiring Logan Forsythe from the Dodgers in the Dozier trade). Again, this is unlikely.
 
The best course of action is probably just to keep Schoop and relegate him to a bench role with less and less playing time. He could occasionally fill in against lefties and seems like the ideal guy to have around the clubhouse (assuming he doesn’t become bitter about his decreased roll). He would also be a valuable depth piece as we have seen how hard injuries can hit.
 
What do you think? Should Schoop be our starting second baseman, a role player, or be removed from the team all together?

I think Taylor Rogers may have been the greatest Twin to be snubbed from anything since Joe Mauer didn’t get the 2017 Gold Glove. After earning the longest save from any Twins pitcher since 2000 yesterday against the Rangers (he retired all seven batters he faced) and becoming the pitcher with the most saves of three or more outs for the club this century, he made it clear once again that he’s definitely one of the best relievers in the game.
 
If you look at the group of relievers that were invited to take part in the Midsummer Classic playing for the American League, it doesn’t seem so absurd that Rogers wasn’t there. Aroldis Chapman, Shane Greene, Brad Hand, Liam Hendriks and Ryan Pressly all have very similar stats, with most of them being better than Rogers’. The only one of them who has a worse ERA than the Twins star (now at 1.82) is Hand (with 2.17). Only Chapman (12.98) and Hand (13.26) are striking out more batters than him (11.57).
 
So, if you think about it, it’s not absurd that he didn’t make the team. But it wouldn’t be absurd if he did either. He’s being at least as effective as the five of them. But Rogers has one difference which could give him the upperhand in a closer comparison with those pitchers. And I don’t think this angle would ever (or even should) be used to decide who an All Star will be. But it’s nice to look at it and have fun with the realization that the Twins have one of the best arms in the game.
 
Going straight to the point: Rogers is used in more important situations than those guys and he is more responsible for his team’s wins than any reliever in the AL. Like we saw before, his overall numbers are very similar or even slightly worse than the All Star relievers. But when you look at high leverage situations, none of them are a match for Rogers.
 
 
Talking about quantity, none of them was used in those situations as much as him. He pitched a total of 14 2/3 innings of high leverage, which currently ranks third in the AL. The AL All Star reliever who comes closest is Hand, who pitched 11 2/3. But the Indians pitcher posts a 6.17, whereas Rogers has a 3.07 ERA. The only AL pitcher who has pitched as many innings (15 1/3) and has a better ERA (2.35) than him is Houston’s Roberto Osuna.
 
 
No other pitcher in the AL has been more responsible for his team’s wins than Rogers has. Currently, he leads all of them in Win Probability Added (WPA), with 2.56. The second AL pitcher in that rank is Chicago’s Álex Colomé, at 1.86, which is still better than the first of the 2019 All Star relievers, Hendriks, at 1.82. Superstar Yankee closer, Chapman doesn’t have even one third of Rogers’ WPA, standing at 0.62. So, it’s safe to say that it would have been absolutely fair if Rogers was chosen over any of the current AL All Star relievers.
 
 
But now, I have something else to put up for discussion. Taylor is only 28 and, if he continues to pitch like that, I think nobody would have any objection to making him a Twin for the remainder of his career. So I should ask your opinion. Where in Twins history do you think Rogers could end up ranking at the end of his career? Does he have a shot at one day becoming one of the best relievers in club history?
 
 
Well, to start, I did a quick research, using Fangraphs’ Splits Leaderboard tool. Currently, Taylor has a 1.82 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and is striking out 11.57 batters per nine. The season is only at its midpoint and these numbers could very well get worse. But, if the season ended today, this would be only the second time in Twins history that a reliever has up to 1.82 ERA, over 11 strikeouts per nine and a WHIP of 0.98 or lower. The only other time that happened was in 2006, when Joe Nathan posted 1.58 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and struck out 12.5 batters per nine. Let me repeat myself: that only happened one other time in club history.
 
 
Nathan is the consensual choice any time someone asks who is the best reliever in Twins history. But interestingly enough, when you compare Rogers’ current career numbers and Nathan’s when he was 28, it gets scary. By the end of the 2002 season, when Nathan was still with the Giants, he had only one career save and -0.52 WPA. Rogers earned against the Rangers this Saturday his 14th career save and holds a 6.69 career WPA, which already ranks fourth in club history. Nathan has the lead with 24.55, but he didn’t throw a single pitch in a Twins uniform before he was 29.
 
 
Another angle through which we can also speculate that Rogers can surpass Nathan in the competition for best reliever in Twins history are their Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (fWAR). Rogers currently is currently worth 4.2 career fWAR, at age 28, in his fourth year as a Major League pitcher. At age 28, Nathan was worth -0.4 and after his fourth season in the Majors he was worth 0.8.
 
 
So everytime this Colorado kid comes up to the mound this year, Twins fans should be extra grateful for the opportunity. Chances are we might be witnessing one of the greatest pitchers to ever play for Minnesota. Too bad All Star game won’t have this opportunity this year.

Max Kepler used to be relatively vocal about his decision to avoid an increased launch angle. He wasn’t looking solely to hit home runs, and while his goal was to enter the zone on a level swing path, he was just fine with ground balls. Former Twins beat writer Mike Berardino talked to the outfielder back in the spring of 2018 and Kepler said as much there. Now he’s become one of the best outfielders in baseball, and it’s because he’s changed his approach.
 

 
Baseball has transitioned to a sport where getting lift on the baseball provides the optimal route for success. As the game invokes shifts and the ball is now juicier than ever, lifting the pill over defenders is the most direct path to generating extra-base hits. Although this may not be a direct focus for Kepler, it’s a principle that James Rowson has impressed upon Twins hitters and it’s one Max is putting to use.
 
In 2019 Kepler owns an 18.5 degrees average launch angle. Last year that mark was 16.2 degree and in 2017 it sat at just 12.6 degrees of lift. Launch angle on its own isn’t conducive production, but Max has paired it with an enhanced exit velocity as well. The 90.9 mph mark this season improves upon an 89 mph mark last year and an 88 mph tally the season before. Summarizing it easily, harder and higher is producing the best results of his career.
 
The percentages reflect what we are seeing in the raw data as well. Kepler owns a career low 35.7% ground ball rate and a career best 18.3% HR/FB number. His 42.6% hard hit rate is nearly seven percent higher than his career average and over a five percent improvement from 2018. Despite chasing and whiffing a bit more often, the contact rate is right on par with career norms and contact within the zone is a career best 93.9%.
 

 
Through just 70 games played Kepler has the 7th best fWAR total among outfielders. He’s the second best in the American League trailing only a guy named Mike Trout. Minnesota saw the value in their German native this offseason and extended him for $35 million over five years. Fangraphs estimates his worth as already being over half of that mark ($21.8MM).
 
When you hear launch angle from a place of scrutiny it generally is assumptive of the idea that players are simply swinging up through the zone attempting to get lift. The practice is built around creating hard contact on the bottom portion of the baseball. A level swing can still be utilized with the point of contact being honed in. Combining lift with an enhanced exit velocity is where the power stroke comes from. As balls are being thrown harder than ever, they’re also being put in play at a similarly increasing velocity.
 
Minnesota’s instruction may not have transformed Kepler’s swing plane through the zone, but it’s certainly worked to adjust the contact point and process when putting the ball in play. Regardless of if the baseball leaves the yard, Kepler is hitting the ball harder and longer than ever before. It’s because of that fact he’s experiencing a jump in performance and the Twins look to be the benefactor of belief over the next five years.
 
For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

The year was 2017 and the month was August. Byron Buxton had just been shelved since mid-July, entered with a .604 OPS, and was ready to get back on the field. The Minnesota Twins needed a jolt to push towards the playoffs and man did his month of August provide it. A .973 OPS across 29 games ended up vaulting him onto the national scene and he was rewarded with an 18th place finish in the American League MVP voting. Fast forward to 2019 and we’re watching it happen again.
 
Right now, Buxton doesn’t own a .973 OPS, and no 29-game sample size has jumped off the page quite like that final month of summer did. However, it’s what Byron Buxton has done this season that is getting deserved recognition across the sport. He isn’t going to win an MVP award because Mike Trout exists, but behind arguably the greatest player to ever step on the diamond, Buxton is currently the second-best centerfielder in the game.
 
On May 13th Buxton had played 37 games for the Twins and his 17 doubles led all of baseball. He had just one homer, but his .275 average and .806 OPS were plenty promising. This date is significant as it was then that I offered the following thoughts on Twitter:
 

 
We’re now roughly a month out from that Tweet, and things have gone as expected. Buxton’s hard-hit rate since that date is 38.6%. He has jumped the 2% HR/FB rate all the way up to 25% and has six dingers. He still leads the American League with 21 doubles (trailing only Josh Bell’s 25 across baseball), but the longball is now being incorporated back into his game. I have long believed Buxton won’t hit for average as much as he’ll combine to hit for power. If the .270 sticks, so be it, but the .500+ SLG is exactly what I’d like to see.
 
You already know about the defensive acumen. Buxton leads baseball in Outs Above Average (10) and Actual Catch Percentage (94%). His 9 DRS is third in the big leagues, and his UZR is also off the charts. It’s fair to suggest that, when healthy, he’s the most dynamic player on defense that the sport currently employs.
 
What is great, and maybe less known, is that the offensive outburst looks sustainable. He’s decreased his chase and whiff rates. His contact rate is a career high, and the hard-hit rate is a substantial improvement. The ball is on the ground nearly 10% less than career averages, and he’s not just trying to beat out ground balls as has been previously suggested to him. This is a good hitter that allowing his tools to work and is creating absolute nightmares for opposing pitchers because of it.
 
It really doesn’t matter where he hits in Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. I’ve talked about moving him up previously, and something like 6th or 7th seems to make sense. Even if he stays in the 9-hole though, this is a guy that’s settled in and finally comfortable showing off the ability that has been there all along.
 
While he won’t win the MVP award, he’s a top 10 candidate at this point in the season, and even that may be a bit too light.

Across all sports the term “underdog” is typically given to teams who lack elite talent but are good enough to be relevant. It is rare when a team leads their respective sport in most major statistical categories and fighting for the number one seed in the postseason to be given the “underdog” label. The 2019 Minnesota Twins are the exception to that rule.
 
As a fan, it is very easy and understandable to be blinded by emotion when talking about your favorite team. We all think our favorite team is the best - unless you’re a Marlins or Orioles fan but then you wouldn't be reading this anyway. Fans also tend to overreact to minor mishaps or punch a hole in the wall when their team doesn’t commit $45million over three years to a 31 year old reliever with declining peripherals.
 
This article will not be an emotionally driven rant about media biases and the Twins not getting respect because they’re a small market team. Rather, my goal is to present an objective analysis of how absurd it is that this team is already an “underdog” to make a deep postseason run.
 
Let’s first look at the current playoff odds of AL division leaders, provided by FanGraphs.
 
Houston Astros: (42-21), 99.9% chance of a postseason appearance, 20.1% chance of winning the World Series.
Minnesota Twins: (40-20), 96.5% chance of a postseason appearance, 7.7% chance of winning the World Series.
New York Yankees: (38-22), 95% chance of a postseason appearance, 12% chance of winning the World Series.
 
Now let’s compare how these teams have performed so far in terms of offense and pitching, beginning with offense. It’s no secret the Twins have crushed the ball this year and you may not be surprised to see them at the top of the AL, but here it is anyway.
 
Minnesota Twins: .272/.339/.510 .850 OPS, 114 HR, 14.7 WAR
Houston Astros: .271/.344/.478 .822 OPS, 100 HR, 14.5 WAR
New York Yankees: .257/.334/.448 .781 OPS, 97 HR, 8.7 WAR
 
You probably didn’t need me to tell you how good their offense has been. If you follow this team then you should (hopefully) already know that. There you have it though, of the current AL division leaders, the Minnesota Twins are the best offensive team. Now let’s look at pitching, beginning with starting pitching.
 
Minnesota Twins: 3.56 ERA, 1.28 HR/9, 1.16 WHIP
Houston Astros: 3.68 ERA, 1.55 HR/9, 1.06 WHIP
New York Yankees: 3.89 ERA, 1.65 HR/9, 1.22 WHIP
 
Let that sink in for a second - the Minnesota Twins not only have the best offense but one of the best starting rotations as well. Bullpen stats aren’t as favorable but they’re also not as bad as most people in Twins territory seem to believe.
 
Minnesota Twins: 4.67 ERA, 1.26 HR/9, 1.41 WHIP
Houston Astros: 3.32 ERA, 1.18 HR/9, 1.12 WHIP
New York Yankees: 3.74 ERA, 1.04 HR/9, 1.26WHIP
 
If you’re reading this then you likely follow baseball. If you follow baseball you likely already knew the Yankees have a great bullpen and the Astros turned Ryan Pressly into a super reliever - it’s okay to be sad about that one Twins fans, I’ll allow it. However, the Twins bullpen has been respectable and Taylor Rogers is emerging as a super reliever.
 
Let’s recap - of the three current AL division leaders, the Twins have the lowest odds of winning the World Series, according to FanGraphs. Minnesota also currently boasts the best offensive production among AL division leaders and their starting rotation has the lowest ERA and has surrendered the least amount of home runs per 9 innings. Also, if the season ended today, Jake Odorizzi is the AL Cy Young winner.
 
Their bullpen has been good but not great and ranks last among current AL division leaders but they’ve still gotten solid production from the bullpen. 10th best bullpen ERA in the league type of production - which by the way, is pretty darn good.
 
Here’s a quick look at how they stack up against all of MLB in pitching and hitting. Minnesota currently leads the league in the following offensive categories: AVG, SLG, OPS, and wOBA. They’re tied for first in wRC+ and HR. Minnesota has been an offensive juggernaut.
 
FanGraphs currently has the Twins ranked as the 4th best starting rotation in the league. They don’t lead the league in any statistical categories other than Wins - which for the most part is a useless stat when evaluating a pitchers individual performance - but their overall starting pitching production has been very strong. Any time you can rank in the top 5 of the league you’re doing something right - thank you, Wes Johnson.
 
Minnesota’s bullpen currently ranks 11th in the league, according to FanGraphs. Top 10 would sound a lot better but 11th is still pretty good. Considering the bullpen expectations were extremely low going into the season, being the 11th best bullpen in the league is a pleasant surprise.
 
If you have read this far you’ve hopefully learned or confirmed your own beliefs that the 2019 Twins are an offensive powerhouse with a top 5 starting rotation and a bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league - Go Twins!
 
Yet for some reason, of the current AL division leaders they have the lowest odds to win the World Series (only 7.7% if you can’t remember that far back). Chris Russo of MLB Network thinks Minnesota is a “regular season team that isn’t built for the postseason”. He’s not alone in that sentiment, either.
 
Most of the publications I have read and TV analysts I’ve listened to seem to echo the same feelings. They don’t believe the 2019 Minnesota Twins are legitimate World Series contenders and it’s shocking.
 
Most of the time when a team is this good they are a consensus World Series favorite - except that doesn’t seem to apply to the 2019 Minnesota Twins. Maybe it’s because the roster lacks household names. Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, C.J. Cron and Mitch Garver aren’t going to be on the cover of Sport Illustrated anytime soon. The Astros, Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees (when healthy) feature a lineup full of MVP winners, All Stars and future HOFers. This could be why the Twins are overlooked but that’s an idiotic reason.
 
Perhaps it’s because Minnesota has been relatively irrelevant since 2010 - other than the brief postseason cameo in 2017. The Tigers, Royals, White Sox and Indians have all appeared in or won a World Series over the last two decades. The Twins, on the other hand, haven’t reached the ALCS since they were defeated by Anaheim in 2002. Maybe everyone forgot about Minnesota and now that they’re a juggernaut they don’t believe it, but again, that’s idiotic.
 
Could it be because they don’t believe their current production is sustainable? This would be the least-idiotic reason to doubt this team. Jake Odorizzi has been a good but not great pitcher over his career. Now suddenly he’s a front runner for the AL Cy Young. Byron Buxton is putting together his best season as a pro, Jorge Polanco is an MVP candidate and up until his last couple starts, Martin Perez has been a completely different pitcher.
 
As I write this on June 6th, the Minnesota Twins currently have five position players with a top 10 WAR for their respective positions. Those five are Polanco, Schoop, Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario. Top 10 doesn’t do enough justice for Jorge Polanco, he has the highest WAR of all shortstops and the 9th highest WAR in the entire league. He’s on pace to win a batting title and possibly the MVP.
 
Minnesota is also one of only three teams in the league with two starting pitchers who rank top 20 in ERA - Jake Odorizzi (2nd) and Jose Berrios (20th).
 
It is very possible that this level of production from relatively unproven players is not sustainable but even that is a bit of a stretch. Byron Buxton was the number one prospect in baseball, so seeing him produce like this isn’t outrageous. Jorge Polanco has always been able to hit and he’s just now entering his prime at age 25. It’s not uncommon for players to have a breakout season after having spent parts of five years in the big leagues and over 1,000 career plate appearances. Jake Odorizzi and Martin Perez, however, are performing significantly better than they have over their careers which does make it harder to believe it is sustainable.
 
The 2019 Minnesota Twins are a legitimate championship contender. By no means am I saying they’re a lock for the World Series and will cruise through the postseason. It’s very possible they get bounced in the ALDS. It’s baseball, anything can happen but this is a very good baseball team that deserves more respect and should not be viewed a consensus underdog.
 
Thank you for reading! If you’d like more Twins news and articles follow me on Twitter @Gebo__

With recent struggles from Twins pitchers, for example, an early season discussion has been brought up this week. Did the Twins address well enough the team’s need during the offseason? Some people sure feel like they didn’t. But one offseason move (out of several others) that we can absolutely tell was right on the money was the Marwin Gonzalez signing.
 
Having played this season in six different positions throughout the field, while also batting DH and pinch hitting, “Margo” is officially one of the most useful pieces a team could have in the sport. Baseball Essential considered Gonzalez the best super-utility player in the game. He was an invaluable help overall during the first couple of months of the season, filling in for injured Miguel Sanó, starting 52 of the team’s 60 games.
 
But it took a while for most Twins fans to see Gonzalez as indispensable. He had a horrible first month offensively, batting .167, with a .501 OPS and 34 wRC+ in 23 games. Even though bad starts offensively have always been a part of his career, people started doubting him, on some level. Overall, he holds a .228 AVG, with a .675 OPS in his eight years in the league. Still, even specialists believed he was bound to lose at bats and become the third option to start at third base, once Willians Astudillo was having himself a hot start of the season. The Turtle was batting .327 with an .870 OPS by the end of April, so it was the natural choice then.
 
But then, things shifted. Since May 1st, he’s batting .304/.376/.500. In that span, only two other players drew more walks than him, who got 11. Also, Gonzalez has been left-handed pitchers’ nightmare, as he’s slashing .378/.425/.541 against them. He completely turned his season around. With 125 PA since the start of May, he’s been the fifth most used player in the offense, with more PA’s than everyday starters Jonathan Schoop and Byron Buxton, for example. He’s become a vital and dependable part of this MLB-best offense.
 
But that’s not even his biggest contribution. Not only is he doing some damage at the plate lately, but he’s also been playing Gold Glove-caliber defense. Being a bench player, he will never win such award, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s an above average defender. And what’s more impressive about this? He does so in more than one position. Here are some defensive stats.
 
As a 3B (257.2 innings)
3 DRS
1.8 UZR
.989 FP
4 DPS
69 Assists
21 PO
1 Error (TE)
 
Gonzalez' three defensive runs saved would be tied for sixth best in MLB, if he qualified. He has as many as 2018 Gold Glove Award winner Nolan Arenado, who's already played over twice as many innings as him this year. He has saved more runs than players such as old friend Eduardo Escobar, Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada, Matt Carpenter and José Ramírez, all of which have been on the field for at least 446 1/3 innings. Regarding his UZR, he would also be tied for sixth best in the game, beating names like Evan Longoria and Alex Bregman, the AL runner-up for the Gold Glove award last year.
 
When looking at his assists amount, he doesn’t rank very high in the league, but, of course, his sample time on the field is much smaller than the average everyday third baseman. If he had had the opportunity to play, say, 400 innings on the field, he would have an equivalent of 107 assists, which would rank him 5th in the league. Had he been there for 500 innings, we would be talking about a league second best 133 assists. But, of course, this is purely hypothetical mathematics.
 
As an OF (81 innings)
3 DRS
0.9 UZR
.933 FP
2 Assists
12 PO
1 error (FE)
 
In the outfield, Gonzalez also has a very small sample, which prevent him from competing with the everyday outfielder in the stats department. But, still, you can tell he’s not at all a bad defender there either. He has as many defensive runs saved as Mike Trout does and one more than NL MVP Christian Yelich. So, the Twins signed a player that, if starting regularly in his primary position, would compete for the league’s highest honours in defense. Not too shabby.
 
Far beyond the numbers, by watching Twins game on a daily basis, you can tell what a great defender he is. There hasn’t been a moment in which I’ve felt insecure about Twins defense in the hot corner or wherever “Margo” is on the field.
 
A lot of things could and should be fixed in the Twins roster. But having Gonzalez in the team guarantees that the bench isn’t one of them. It’s impossible to say for sure if Minnesota would be having the same success that they are having right now if he wasn’t a part of the team, but I imagine things would be much harder. Afterall, he might be the best and most prolific utility player in the game right now.

When Garver is ready to return...when Cruz is ready to return...who gets sent down? Will it be Litttell and Arraez? Will it be two relievers, since the starters are doing so well and Arraez is such a good hitter and can play several IF positions? ? Will it be 2 position players since two position (DH and C) players will be returning? What do you think?

This content originates at Zone Coverage here -- please click through to read it in its entirety.
 
In the mid-1980s, MLB teams colluded to keep player contracts — both in terms of length and dollars — from getting out of control. And while we’d stop short of using the c-word to describe the last two offseasons, there are some stunningly similar situations playing out before our very eyes.
 
Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are both sitting at home twiddling their thumbs as teams now wait for the MLB draft — early next month — to pass so they can be signed without draft pick compensation being required. Future Hall of Famer Tim Raines was in the midst of his prime when he had to miss the first month of the season in 1987 because the deadline to re-sign with his original club had passed.
 
Fast-forward back to 2019, and the Minnesota Twins are the class of the American League Central and among the best teams in either league — just one year after a disappointing 78-84 finish led to a managerial firing and quite a bit of roster turnover.
 
For the second year in a row, the Twins moved slowly — or maybe deliberately is the better word — in the free-agent market, grabbing players at peak value to add to an existing roster of exciting, but unproven youngsters.
 
For the first year in a row, it’s actually working.
 
The Twins come into Wednesday’s series finale with the Los Angeles Angels with the potential for a sweep and with a record of 32-16. For those — such as myself — who aren’t mathematically inclined, that’s twice as many wins as losses. It’s the first time the Twins have been 16 games above .500 since the end of the 2010 season — the inaugural year of Target Field.
 
That feels like so long ago, doesn’t it?
 
There’s plenty of credit to go around and no shortage of worthwhile recipients for it. That includes guys like Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver from within, but also pretty much every player the Twins brought in from the outside.
 
C.J. Cron is mashing home runs you could hang laundry on. Jonathan Schoop has more than replaced Brian Dozier. Marwin Gonzalez has gotten red-hot in the month of May and looks like he’s willing to play just about anywhere to keep this thing going. Nelson Cruz was mashing until a wrist injury shelved him. On the pitching side, both Martin Perez and Blake Parker have been better than advertised.
 
That’s kind of a lot of players to add in one offseason, isn’t it? It’s almost like the Twins had a bunch of payroll room clear up and…nah. We won’t go there, but it isn’t only because Joe Mauer came off the books that the Twins were able to make these moves.
 
The Twins were able to add all these players because the free-agent market is broken — and they were one of the few teams willing to glue the pieces back together.
 
Let’s look at each player individually:
 
C.J. Cron
For the second year in a row, the Tampa Bay Rays made the baffling decision to move on from a productive player whose salary should not have been cost-prohibitive. After 2017, that player was Corey Dickerson, who went on to hit .300/.330/.474 for the Pittsburgh Pirates while making a tidy $5.95 million.
 
Even if the Rays want to cry poverty, that’s hardly a kingly sum for a player who still had two years of club control and was coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Also, it’s not like the Pirates are the gold standard for taking someone else’s overpaid veterans — they might even be the NL’s answer for the Rays in that respect.

Gaging value in relief pitichers is always a difficult task given that they are prone to issues with small sample size. Many relievers who were good one season will regress the next, and as we've seen with Blake Parker, guys who were nothing special can turn into a very good option.
 
Regardless, it was, without question, a point of contention this offseason among TD readers about the front office getting more help for the pen. I personally beat this horse dead on numerous occasions. I was happy with the Parker signing, but made it clear that I didn't want this to be the main acquisition. The pen so far has not been as bad as some of us (myself included) thought. It has essentially been slightly better than league average if WAR is be believed, though its peripherals definitely say that there's room for improvement.
 
As such, I'm going to wade into the dollars vs. development debate and take a look at the FA relievers from the 2018 season to see if it was worth spending the money. I'll split these out by contract value. That's a bit arbitrary, but it does speak to the general demand for these players. My main source is this ESPN list. I'm not going to pretend that I've found all of them, so apologies if I missed a few. I'm not going to touch minor league signings.
 
The cream of the Crop:
Kelvin Herrera - Herrera signed a 2/17 deal with Chicago and has so far been a bust, posting an ERA north of 5 out of the pen in 20 appearances so far this season. His K rate has been acceptable, but his BB rate has risen along with his WHIP.
Andrew Miller - Another big name in the RP market, Miller has been, so far at least, a bust as well, posting a 4.80 ERA for the Cards after signing a 2/25 deal with an additional option. His K rate has improved this season but his WHIP has gotten worse with increases in hits, walks, and HRs per 9 innings.
Adam Ottavino - Our first success story on the big name candidates comes from Ottavino, who thus far has been a dominant option in the back of the Yankees' pen. His control has been a bit worse than normal (walking 6.5 batters per 9), but his hit rate is an absurd 4.5 per 9 and his strike out rate has increased as well. So far at least the 3/27 contract he signed has been good for NY.
Craig Kimbrel - He's still unsigned. So the book is still out.
Jeurys Familia - Familia chose to remain with the Mets this offseason, and thus far hasn't rewarded the 3/30 contract he signed as his ERA is also north of 5 and his WHIP has skyrocketed due in large part to doubling his walk rate. His HR rate has doubled too thus far.
Zach Britton - Britton made bank signing a 3/39 deal with the Yankees and has so far not disappointed. His K rate has increased substantially while the rest of his peripherals have remained pretty close to the same. His ERA is slightly lower as well.
Joe Kelly - Kelly signed a 3/25 deal with the LAD and has been probably the worst of this bunch. His ERA sits over 8. His K rate has dropped and he's seen large increases in both his hit and HR rates in his 16 appearances. His walk has dropped though.
David Robertson - Robertson signed a 2/23 deal with Philly and has been a bust so far. He's pitched in only 7 innings and has been shelled. He's currently on the shelf with elbow sorness.

In all, there have only been two hits of the 7 who signed in this group. I cannot emphasize enough that SSS is a huge factor here, but only 2 of these guys would have helped our pen... and unfortunately both are pitching for NY.
 
Second Tier
Justin Wilson - Wilson was a cheap grab for the mets, signing a 2/10 deal. Risk aside, he hasn't performed well thus far posting a 4.8 ERA in only 10 games. His peripherals are all over the place and seems to be buoyed largely by a couple extra home runs. His K rate and BB rates are both down this year.
Joakim Soria - Soria signed a 2/15 deal with Oakland, and while the ERA is not pretty, his peripherals are in line with his career averages. Both his K rate and BB rates are up a bit and he has yet to give up a HR in his 21 innings. I'm not sure I'd call this a bust at this point as I think he's probably a victim of bad luck, but his 5.14 ERA is a bit ugly.
Cody Allen - Allen signed a 1 year deal with the Angels and so far has not lived up to his 8.5M salary. His HR and BB rates have skyrocketed though he still maintains a sexy K rate. His 5.54 ERA is something we can all live without.
Jesse Chavez - Chavez signed a 2/8 deal with Texas, and thus far every one of his peripherals have trended in the wrong direction. His ERA is north of 5.
Trevor Rosenthal - Rosenthal has under performed his 1/7 deal and is currently in the minors rehabbing due to a viral infection. His 3 inning ML sample is a bit too small to gage at this point, though the results weren't good.

There are only 5 names in this tier, and so far every team wouldn't mind a do over. I could see a couple of these names evening out over the course of this season, but none of these guys would have helped us much at this point.
 
Cheap Fliers
Brad Brach - Brach has gotten results for the Cubs, but his peripherals say he's on borrowed time. His walk rate has doubled and his K rate is about at career norms. Still for 3 million dollar deal, Brach hasn't been bad.
Zach Duke - yes, that Zach Duke. He signed a 2M deal with the Reds and has been horrible in 15 innings so far.
Cory Gearrin - the Mariners have, thus far, gotten a bargin with Gearrin for the 1.4M value of his contract. His ERA is a bit higher than we'd like for an RP at 3.63 but thus far he's performed. His K rate is way up as is his walk rate. Gearrin would be an upgrade over a couple players in our pen. Not bad for the money.
Greg Holland - I have to tip my cap to those on the Holland bandwagon along with Arizona for picking him for only 3.25M. He's been worth it posting a 1.80 ERA. Despite an elevated walk rate, his WHIP is down. His K rate is up. He's given up less hits and kept the ball in the park in his 15 innings. He would be one of our best relievers.
Shawn Kelley - Another nice find for the bargain price of 2.75M. Kelley has only pitched 14 innings, but has given up 9 hits and 2 runs in that span allowing for a 1.29 ERA.
Aaron Loup - The Padres got him for 1.4M and he's been perfect so far this season. The only real problem is that it's a 4 inning sample as he hit the IL in early April with elbow soreness. The book is still out here.
Blake Parker - We know him. So far a win for the front office.
Oliver Perez - Perez signed a 2.5M deal with Cleveland. He has only pitched in 10 innings to the tune of a 4.5 ERA thus far. Not a bad find in the value category. His peripherals all look pretty good and he's one of the few pitchers whose BB rate has dropped so far this season. I'm going with a bit of bad luck on the ERA, but he wouldn't present much of an upgrade to our pen.
David Phelps - The Blue Jays signed him in hopes that he recovers from TJS at some point this year and pitches. He went under the knife last spring. Not a bad risk for 2.5M. He's yet to pitch.
Tony Sipp - Sipp signed for 1.25 for the Nats and has not been good. He's appeared in 17 games and only pitched 9 innings with an ERA of 6.
Hunter Strickland - Strickland signed a 1.3M deal and has pitched all of 2 innings, and poorly. He's out a couple months due to a grade 2 strain of a lat muscle.
Adam Warren - Warren has been OK for the Padres with a 3.72 ERA. That's not special, nor are his peripherals, but he hasn't been horrible either. Not bad for 2.5M.

Of the 12 names on this list, there are only 3 clear misses at this point. Phelps was not expected to necessarily be pitching yet, so I'd say the jury is still out here. That may turn into a good deal for the Jays. Given their season though, he's likely going to be traded if he's pitching this summer. Holland, Kelley, and Parker have all been quite good for their teams. The other 6 fall under too soon to tell or value signings in that they haven't been bad, though they wouldn't necessarily be huge upgrades either.
 
One other trend that I noticed is that most relievers seemed to have noticeable increases in their BB rates. I'm not sure if that's more on an emphasis on Ks (which also were generally up), but relief pitching outcomes seemed much more skewed to higher BB and K rates over these pitcher's career norms. That appears, thus far, to the be the case across MLB as well, as RPs in general are averaging 3.93 BB per 9 along with 9.42 K per 9. Both are thus far significantly higher than last year.
 
Obviously, with these small samples, it's a bit too soon to tell on all of them, but for those of us (myself included) who wanted the Twins to do more, the results say that they would have likely missed.. The top tier has had some good performances, but has ultimately disappointed. The bottom tier has had about the same percentage of hits as the top tier along with some value guys who have performed as well as the top tier signings for much less. As much as I hate to say it, it looks like our front office hasn't done a bad job in this area.

I don't think it is still possible for Minnesota Twins fans to still doubt the skill of this years team. The Twins just recently won three out of four games against the Houston Astors to improve to 19-10 on the season.
 
The big take away from this series: pitching. The starting pitchers were feeling themselves this past series, minus Pineda, and the bullpen made work with their little time in the game. Besides the 11-0 loss in game two, this was some of the best pitching I've seen all year, and against a good Astros team.
 
Game 1
 
The first game of the series was a pitching duel between Jake Odorizzi and Justin Verlander, but Odorizzi was the one who ended up on top between the two. Verlander pitched phenomenal but gave up a home run to Ehire Adrianza, who was the last Twin starter to hit a home run this season. It took only one mistake from Verlander as the Twins took a 1-0 win in game one.
 
Odorizzi continues to deal this season improving to 3-2 on the season with a 3.34 ERA. He was able to go seven shutout innings while walking only one and giving up only four hits and striking out seven. Taylor Rogers was able to come in to throw a shutout inning with Blake Parker coming in in the ninth to pick up his sixth save.
 
Game 2
 
Not much to talk about in this game as the Twins were blanketed 11-0. Pineda had a good start to the game, but in the fifth inning and sixth innings he fell apart. He finished with five innings pitched and five runs along with nine hits and moves to 2-2 with a 6.21 ERA.The offense was no where to be seen for the Twins as they had only three hits, with the first one coming in the seventh.
 
Game 3
 
Here's where the excitement really got going. On the pitching side, we got to see Martin Perez who came into the game 3-0 with a 4.44 ERA, he improved both those categories in this game.
 
Perez was dealing from start to finish, throwing eight shutout innings and almost went into the ninth before his pitch count rose to 100 and his night was over. He gave up only four hits in the game while striking out seven to move to 4-0 on the year with a 3.41 ERA.
 
The offense also came to play today and it started with a bomb from Jonathan Schoop in the third. He drilled the ball to left field for a 465 foot home run, which was the longest by a Twin since 2017. Cruz put together a nice 2-hit game with two RBIs and a run to go behind that.
 
Unfortunately, Trevor Hildenberger wasn't able to hold the shutout in the ninth as he gave up three hits and two runs. Ultimately the Twins were able to take game three 6-2, and made it so they were in a position to take this series from the Astros
 
Game 4
 
Jose Berrios was the starter for the series finale and was able to pick up his fourth win of the season behind another strong performance with help from the offense. Berrios had a little rough start to the game giving up a home run in the first inning to Alex Bregman, and giving up back-to-back hits to lead off the third. After he was able to strike out the next batter, get a fly out and strike out the final batter to get out of the pickle and find his groove.
 
Counting those three outs, he was able to retire 12 straight Astros until his final inning in the seventh. He finished with seven innings, two runs, seven hits and five strikeouts to improve to 4-1 with a 2.91 ERA. Ryne Harper and Trevor May were both able to throw one shutout inning to secure the win.
 
The bottom of the lineup really came to play today getting seven hits from the bottom four guys. Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton were able to both hit a triple today and Jason Castro had a double and a home run along with four RBIs. The Twins took the series finale 8-2 behind a strong fourth inning.
 
Overall
 
The pitching this series was very solid from both the starters and the bullpen, obviously minus game two, but picking up a 1-0 shutout against Verlander was huge, and winning the series three games to one shows that we don't just beat bad teams. Odorizzi and Perez have shown to be good second and third starters but Gibson and Pineda continue to struggle.
 
Eddie Rosario continues to struggle at the plate as he went 0-14 this series and his average dropped to .223. Polanco continues to hit the ball and is leading the team with a .336 average, and Nelson Cruz is still hitting well with a .302 average.
 
What's next?
 
The Twins get right back into action tomorrow when they travel to face the New York Yankees for the first time this season. The Twins are coming into this series winning six out of their last seven, leading the AL, and having the second highest win percentage in the MLB. Hopefully they can keep their hot streak going during this next series.

Over the winter, the Minnesota Twins invested heavily on their infrastructure throughout the organization. Not only were a handful of new coaching and developmental staff brought in, but new technology was introduced to generate more production out of the same players. We’re just a couple weeks into the 2019 season, but there’s some very promising developments that have taken place on the 25-man roster.
 
Any number of storylines could be generated from the early performances a handful of Twins players have put up. Without a bit more substantiation to the numbers though, I think it’s just worth noting some of the eye-popping production that has taken place thus far.
 
Jorge Polanco began his 2019 with a bang, becoming the 11th player in Twins history to hit for the cycle. Just a couple days later, he missed the feat by falling a double short. Through nine games, his 0.8 fWAR is tied for 8th in baseball, and is already half of his career best season (2017). A 51.6% hard hit rate is almost double his career average, and the contract extension is looking like a massive bargain for the Twins.
 
Mitch Garver owns the second highest fWAR among Twins position players, and his 16.7% barrels/plate appearance ranks 6th in all of baseball. He became the third player ever to hit two home runs off Jacob deGrom in a single game, and his offensive prowess looks as evident as ever. Behind the dish his defensive adjustments have been evident and generating extra strikes by presenting a stronger zone has seemed to show up plenty.
 
Jose Berrios has been as advertised. A dark horse Cy Young candidate, his 0.7 fWAR is tied for third in baseball among pitchers. Command has been sharper than it’s ever been, and the addition of a devastating changeup has him looking like a whole new level of lethal. Across three starts, he’s absolutely dominated the two better teams (Cleveland and Philadelphia), en route to posting a 2.18 ERA. He’s looked the part of a staff ace for a while, but the emergence to a true ace is something that would be more than welcomed.
 
Byron Buxton is familiar with slow starts, but 2019 hasn’t been anything close to that. He’s batting .292 and owns an .846 OPS through his first 26 plate appearances. Looking more aggressive at the plate, Buxton has sat on pitches to generate a career best 33% hard hit rate. He’s laid off the breaking ball down and away, and he’s ripping off doubles at an impressive pace. Staying healthy will remain a key focus here, but it looks like the breakout we’ve been waiting for is finally upon us.
 
We’ll need to wait for things to play out in order to draw any concrete conclusions this season. With over 150 games still to go, we’re just getting started. If any of these early indications for the Twins turn out to hold significant weight as the schedule draws on though, we should be in for quite the ride.
 
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Today, six days before Minnesota welcomes the Cleveland Indians to Target Field, the Twins sent star pitcher Fernando Romero to Triple-A. The once highly-touted starting pitching prospect had been transitioned to relief work this spring. He was talked up as having electric stuff and being a real weapon out of Rocco Baldelli’s pen. Unfortunately, when the rubber met the road, there was more seasoning to be had. That isn’t the problem, but the fallout is.
 
Across 9.2 IP down in Fort Myers, Romero coughed up 10 runs (nine earned) and fanned seven while walking eight. He had started out strong, and really faltered down the stretch. With Opening Day firmly in focus, the decision had to be made. Romero was going to need more time settling into his new role for Rochester.
 
While it’s more than fair to suggest keeping Romero stretched out as a starter would’ve made sense, the consensus could be that he simply isn’t cut out for it. Regardless of the feelings from 1 Twins Way, the reality is that Romero is now going to upstate New York and will work a couple times a week throwing something like 20 pitches per outing. It will groom him for the role outlined for him in 2019 but doesn’t do much to help development as a rotation factor in the years ahead. We now know Romero’s path, and it was written on the wall for a matter of days now, but this is where Minnesota’s offseason starts to fall apart.
 
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine failed to address pitching in almost any capacity. Blake Parker and Martin Perez have the chops to be nice additions, but they do little to raise the overall water level of the group, and don’t enhance depth at all. Going into Spring Training, Romero was viewed as (and talked about from team officials) as a key cog in this pitching staff. The minute that didn’t happen, things start to crumble. Add in the fact that Addison Reed hasn’t looked good at all, is now hurt with a trip to the IL possible, and things get rather bleak quick.
 
Non-roster invitees Ryne Harper and Tim Collins are the two biggest names left in camp vying for one bullpen spot. Both have shown incredibly well, and Collins was a big name a few years ago for the Royals. It’s commendable that both have seized their opportunity, but them factoring onto an Opening Day roster that should have a divisional opportunity in front of them is a result of poor planning.
 
Collins threw just over 20 innings with the Nationals last year. He was just ok, and he hasn’t been a big-league staple since 2013. His last (and only) truly good year was 2012, and he’s now both aged and gone under the knife since then. Harper has displayed a Bugs Bunny curveball but he’s a near-30-year-old career minor leaguer. He posted a 5.19 ERA at Triple-A Rochester last season, and while the strikeout and walk rates have both been great on the farm, no one has ever deemed it worthy of a callup.
 
Neither option, Collins or Harper, is at fault for this. If nothing else, they’re doing everything in their power to be the solution to an organizational problem. By relying solely on the emergence of Romero, or the breakout of Matt Magill, Minnesota’s brass balked at opportunities to sign Joakim Soria, Kelvin Herrera, Brad Brach, Adam Ottavino, or even Craig Kimbrel. Martin Perez could’ve been added with another starter, allowing the “loser” to go to the pen. Any number of options could’ve been explored, but the suggestion was that we have this figured out.
 
Maybe a handful of months from now we’ll look back on this as much ado about nothing. Romero could figure it out quick at Triple-A, come up and immediately be the weapon he was billed as. Maybe Collins or Harper will stick, and the front office will look great for their conviction. The flip side, however, is that the already non-existent depth is being exposed before Opening Day, and we know more names are going to be called upon.
 
Paying relievers, and pitchers in general, is a fickle business practice. Good teams don’t let the elite pitchers get away and cashing in on high quality relievers before they go belly up is a smart practice. Playing in the minefield of free agency for these types is dicey, but unless you have a reliable stable on your own, targeting strong depth that pushes everyone else down a rung makes a ton of sense.
 
The expectation for this club should be, and will remain, that the lineup will hit. Production 1-9 from this group should be plenty to win games on a nightly basis. Where they might lose the credibility comes in the form of trust placed on a suspect pitching staff serving up many more questions than answers. Right now, the front office believes in depth arms, I’m not ready to support them in that though. Here’s to hoping it’s this blogger with egg on his face.
 
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Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports in the last 24 hours the Twins have shown an interest in Craig Kimbrell. Anyone got any additional info about this exciting rumor?

As of this writing the Minnesota Twins have made just one move to solidify their bullpen for 2019. Snagging non-tendered reliever Blake Parker on a one-year deal, Rocco Baldelli’s relief corps hasn’t been overhauled by any means. Knowing the innings will need to be allocated across the group in the season ahead, there’s plenty of uncertainty when attempting to determine roles. From a traditional sense, that’s a fine determination. For those concerned with such things however, we’re left wondering who closes things out?
 
On January 14 the Parker deal was made official. It is a $3.2 million pact, but the oddity is that only $1.8 million is guaranteed. The former Angel receives a $1.4 million sum if he is on Minnesota’s active roster for 160 days. It’s a weird stipulation that needed to be agreed to for a guy who’s put up solid numbers over the past two years. Being non-tendered is one thing, but this almost makes it look like Parker didn’t have great prospects elsewhere either. Regardless, I believe he can help Minnesota’s pen.
 
Pitching for Los Angeles each of the past two years Parker earned 22 saves. Never tabbed the closer from the get-go, he’s filled in during times of need and done so admirably. A high strikeout and strong command pitcher, Parker has the makings of a guy able to succeed in the 9th or a setup role. From there, things get less certain.
 
If there’s a “proven closer” among the current bunch it’s Addison Reed. Signed to a two-year last winter, Reed was expected to be a difference maker for the Twins. He flopped and battled injury in Minnesota but has always shown so much more. He was far too hittable last season but remained relatively strong in terms of limiting walks. With 125 saves to his credit, operating as a closer is something he’s familiar with. In talking with Reed last spring, he told me he could care less about the save aside from grabbing some prior to arbitration. Should Minnesota be able to right the 30-year-old on a path that he had previously been on, they’ll have a strong late inning reliever no matter where he’s used.
 
From an internally developed standpoint Minnesota has only two options. Trevor May and Trevor Hildenberger look like the most logical fits. The former is a converted starter that seems to be able to amp it up in relief, why the latter is a crafty reliever who’s used deception and stuff to fuel a level of dominance out of the pen. I’d suggest May as profiling more towards your prototypical closer, but it’s clear that Hildenberger has found success in that arena as well.
 
The Twins watched a further breakout from Taylor Rogers in 2018, and while his numbers are spectacular, I think he continues to slot in best during optimal high leverage. Being called upon situationally late in games allows for him to dictate matchups and utilize his best stuff for getting opponents out. Fernando Romero looks like he could be headed to the pen this year, and the blazing fastball would certainly play up in relief. Over time I’d be far from shocked if he doesn’t force himself into high leverage. Initially, Minnesota may be cautious to keep him stretched out, and even if not, asking him to immediately work the most important innings could be a tough ask.
 
From here Baldelli won’t have much to turn to. J.T. Chargois is gone, John Curtiss was just DFA’d, Jake Reed has yet to be promoted, and Tyler Jay is still on the farm. If there’s someone outside of the previously mentioned big league names ready to reign in the closer role for this club, they aren’t currently on the roster. Cody Allen continues to be a name that makes so much sense, and I’ve heard rumblings that the interest is mutual. Until that deal comes to fruition however, it’s a wait and see sort of scenario.
 
Even with an Allen marriage in Minnesota, this collection is setting up like a group that will rotate the hot hand rather often. Allen has recorded at least 24 saves in each of his five seasons operating as the Indians closer, but the Twins could see something like five different players record marks in that category. From both a developmental exercise to a best fit scenario, the Twins relievers possess a wide spectrum of potential outcomes for the 2019 season. The best-case scenario looks to be a collection that succeeds by being quality over the sum of its parts. There probably isn’t going to be a runaway fireman called on at every opportunity but being able to adequately operate together gives this group promise.
 
Right now, today, it’s hard to envision the Twins front office feeling good about where the relief corps is at. The bulk of the work has been done, but another signing seems almost necessary. We’ll know more about who takes what role, when, as spring training gets underway. There’s going to be uncertainty for this group regardless, but I think it’s less damaging than immediately may be assumed.
 
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We, as fans, have an interesting relationship between the franchises we support and ourselves. The bottom line of why we support these teams is usually because we enjoy doing so (although it seems like some Twins “fans” on Twitter don’t enjoy anything that has to do with them, but that’s another story). And this vested interest in the team leads us to want our franchise to acquire the best talent available in order to possibly win the championship at the end of the season. But, there are parameters set up by the team that we also must accept in the form of payroll. We understand the limitations which are laid out to us and then theorize events that can occur within them because our teams have shown us what the limits are. In MLB, not all franchise is created equal as there are consistent patterns of spending among the teams which split them up into either “big markets” who can land the big free agents and “small markets” who have to settle for less.
 
Now, let me get one thing clear, I am not whining about if this system is unfair as I personally believe it really is not much of a problem. Nor am I damning the teams such as the Twins who operate under stricter rules than others because I also understand that payroll is correlated to profit and this is a business after all. Teams who spend more generally have a better chance of making the playoffs but there is little to no correlation between spending and actually winning the championship. To put it simply, it’s pretty much just dumb blind luck whether or not a team wins the World Series once they make the playoffs. No, instead I want to comment on the fascinating position fans find themselves in when it comes to theorizing roster moves and creating scenarios in their mind with a certain limit that they must consider.
 
It’s easy for us to disconnect ourselves from the money that the players we root for are making, we don’t see the total in terms of “how much is that player making” as much as we see it in “how will how much that player is making affect the teams ability to make moves”. We squabble over how many millions can we reasonably offer to a free agent along with coming to terms with the fact that teams will keep MLB ready prospects down in the minors in order to keep them around for cheaper for longer. Hell, we just saw this happen with Byron Buxton when the Twins didn’t call him up when rosters expanded party because it would give the Twins an extra year of team control. Of course, the decision required more nuance than that, but the end result was that Buxton will now be stifled in the amount of money he will be making in the future because of the limits set up the team. In a perfect world, he would have been called up in September because it would not matter that the Twins would be forced to pay him more money sooner because it would not be an issue to do so, they could offer him whatever 6 year contract he pleased and both sides would go frolic in a garden somewhere, but that isn’t the baseball world we live in.
 
I rationalized this decision, like most others did, with the reasoning I laid out before, but in doing so I sided with the team and owner who is worth billions of dollars instead of the player worth a fraction of a fraction of that. And now, that doesn’t sit right with me. Along with this, I think of the numerous players who were non-tendered because their arbitration totals were probably going to be higher than how much their teams thought they were worth and those players were cut to save a few bucks. This would be fine if the teams spent more on free agents in return but this hasn’t been the case for a lot of teams as it seems some franchises aren’t aware that they are allowed to sign players right now. There’s also that statement that follows every question about whether a team should sign a player: “sure, as long as he’s cheap”.
 
The easy response is that these players, while worth way less than their owners, will still end up making far more money than any of us will and it becomes hard to feel bad for a player who ends up making only 3 million dollars instead of 4 million dollars because the difference is negligible for us. But again, we’re looking at their salary from the point of view of someone who has a vested interest in them making as little money as possible in order for our favorite team to have more flexibility for future acquisitions.
 
At the end of the day, should teams really be this concerned with cutting miniscule costs in the name of efficiency? Should how much money C.J. Cron is making affect whether or not the Rays DFA him? And should we be infuriated when Andrew McCutchen signs for 5 million dollars more than we think he’s worth? I don’t believe so, but hey, it isn’t my money.

Who were the Twins managers and were they any good? There is something strange about the manager position in baseball. It is not like we grow up hoping to be a manager. There seems to be no particular qualification, it is at the whim of the team.
 
 
"In his essay "From Little Napoleons to Tall Tacticians", Thomas Boswell identifies four main personality types among baseball managers, corresponding to archetypes based on the nicknames of their earliest representatives in Major League Baseball, all of whom are in the Hall of Fame:
The Little Napoleons, modeled on John McGraw, intense, emotional and competitive, embodying passionate leadership.
The Peerless Leaders, modeled on Frank Chance, disciplined, courageous and dignified, embodying leadership by character.
The Tall Tacticians, after Connie Mack, savvy, intelligent and trusting in their judgment, embodying intellectual leadership; and
The Uncle Robbies, after Wilbert Robinson, compassionate, humorous and understanding, embodying leadership by wisdom." https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Manager

 
Did they deserve to be in the Hall of Fame? Does any manager belong in the Hall of Fame? Casey Stengel led the Yankees to 10 World series wins in 12 years - surely he deserves his HOF plaque, right? He managed the Braves and Dodgers for nine years before that and had a high finish in nine years of 5th place. He managed the Mets for 4 years after the Yankees and finished 10th four times. So if we put all 25 years together is in a HOF manager for the Boston Bees/Braves or the Mets or the Dodgers? Probably not.
 
 
Joe Torre managed 30 years and became HOF because of the years he had the Yankees 12 years and his worst finish was 2! But what about the other 18 years? Five years with the Mets and he average a finish below 5th place. Three years with the Braves and an average finish of second place. Six years with the Cardinals and an average finish of 3.5 and finally three years with the Dodgers, two first, one fourth. So was he HOF with the Mets, Braves, and Cardinals?
 
 
Sometimes managers are brought in when the team dumps talent and then dumps the manager when the talent arrives. How do you judge his performance? Even the worse managers do well when their team is loaded with all-stars. So who are the worst managers and how are they judged? Ted Williams was a bust in four years with the Senator/Rangers according to baseball historians, but he was MOY in his first year - just like our HOF manager - Paul Molitor, but Ted was just irascible and irritating everyone because he wanted perfection.
 
 
Ned Yost is often sited as one of the worst managers, but his KC Royals won a series and changed the way MLB looked at the bullpen. And finally the manager that Bleacher Reports puts number one on the all time worst manager list is Buddy Bell who had been a really fine player. Just to note that ball clubs can't really judge managers any better than the rest of us - Bell was hired three times by three different clubs, the Tigers, Rockies and Royals. He had a 418 percent for his nine years. Ace Wilson actually had a worse percentage - 401 with the Cubs and Phillies in nine seasons. Note how these terrible managers get nine seasons to show how bad they are?
 
 
in 2016 Fangraphs tried to evaluate managers https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-should-we-evaluate-a-manager/ and Paul Molitor was rated below average. Eno Sarris wrote this article and based his scores on four areas of managing - 1.When he uses his best relievers. 2.How rigid his approach to the bullpen is. 3. Where he puts his best hitters in the lineup. 4.How often he bunts with non-pitchers. Those four items seem too arbitrary to me. How about Morale, responding to injuries, use of young players and old players...
 
 
In 2009 Hardball times ranked the 25 HOF managers and made a case that Billy Martin - one of our managers actually belongs for his managing ability. https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/evaluating-managers/ I would agree. Billy Martin burned out his pitchers, but if you wanted to win - Billy won. Billy might beat up his best player and the teams press secretary, but he won. His record was better than his predecessor and the next in line. He managed to win, but could not manage himself. How do you evaluate that? He was 240 wins above 500 in his managing career.
 
 
So who have the Twins had? The first manager was Cookie Lavagetto who had managed the Washington Senators to 8,8,8,5 out of 8 and then came with the Twins to Minnesota where he was fired half way through the year and replaced with Sam Mele. We finished 7 of 10 in 1961. He had a 414 winning percentage. He was a third baseman when he played 10 years with four years in the service and is best known for the Cookie game when he broke up Bill Bevan's no-hitter with a pinch hit double. He played for Pittsburgh and Brooklyn.
 
He was replaced by Sam Mele, a former RF who played 10 years for six teams including the Senators twice. He managed the Twins for seven years and took the Twins to the 1965 World Series with perhaps the best roster in team history. After the World Series he finished second the following years, but no playoffs in those days. He finished with a career 546 percentage. During his term, his coach Billy Martin had a fight with his pitching coach Johnny Sain giving a preview of coming attractions. He was fired in 1967 after 50 games because the team was 500 and replaced - not with Martin as expected - but with Calvin Coolidge Ermer.
 
 
Cal finished that year and managed one more. His record was 589 for the remainder of his first year and then only 488 his first full year. His playing career was one game for the 1947 Senators. He was with the organization 60 years and was minor league manager of the year in 1958.
 
 
In 1969 Billy Martin got his chance and we were first in the west division but lost 3 - 0 in the ALCS. Alfred Manuel Martin, Jr (Billy) was the Twins second baseman in 1961, he then became our scout, managed the Denver Bears and became our manager. He was fired after winning. As a scout he tried to get Griffith to sign pitcher Jim Palmer but skinflint Griffith refused, of course. In 1966 Martin got into a fight with traveling secretary Howard Fox on a charter flight ruining his chance for that years managerial promotion. Fox had demanded that Martin get his former Yankee teammates to quiet down on the flight and he refused. Fox then refused to give Martin his key, eventually throwing it at Martin. Martin hit Fox in the face! Martin ended up with the Denver Bears, where he took a poor team and made it a winner. Craig Nettles from the team said Martin made them afraid to lose. Martin was then given the Twins job and Griffith said, "I feel like I am sitting on a powder keg."
 
 
Griffith insisted on a daily meeting with Martin, so Martin showed up when it was time for Griffith's daily nap. Then when Dave Boswell (20 game winner) got in a fight with Bob Allison Martin joined in and punched Boswell. Griffith wanted to fire Martin but he was winning and so was Boswell. His relationship with the Twins was also damaged when he kicked Hubert Humphrey out of the locker room. Fox and others prevailed and Martin was fired, the fans were angry.
 
 
Bill Rigney, a big name at the time, replaced Martin. They had to have a famous name to try to calm fandom. Bill Rigney had an 8 year career as an infielder with the Giants. Then he went on to be the manager of the Minneapolis Millers and 18 years as a mlb manager starting with the Giants. Then three years with the Twins where his team finished 1, 5, 3 in the AL west. Rigney was fired during his third year and replaced by Frank Quilici.
 
 
Quilici, who passed away last year, played for the Twins for five years as a second baseman. Including the partial first year he managed for four years with a 494 winning pct. finishing 3,3,3,4 in the AL west. He was beloved and went into the radio booth after his career. He was replaced by legendary Gene Mauch another former 2B who was a manager for 27 years.
 
 
As I said, how do you judge a manager. He was beloved by management and got a job for 27 years despite being the manager for the Philadelphia Phillies in one of the most famous collapses of all time. His team was ahead by 6 1/2 games with 12 to go. He decided to pitch Jim Bunning and Chris Short in 7 of the last 10 games - burning them out (maybe) and the lead disappeared. The team 'pholded' and yet Mauch kept managing. In 1985 with the Angels his team lost in the last game of season and finished second to the Royals. In 1961 his Angels team established the record for a losing streak - 23 games. In 1969 his Expos team lost 20 in a row. From 1976 - 1980 he managed the Twins and his nephew Roy Smalley. His teams finished 3,4,4,4,3. 378 - 394 490.
 
 
With all the luck they had with 2B they chose Johnny Goryl in 1981. After going 11 - 25 he was replaced by Billy Gardner another 2B, infielder who had 10 years in the majors. He managed six years with the Twins and one with KC. His Twins had a 432 pct. and he was fired in 1985 and replaced by Ray Miller.
 
 
Miller finished the season and was fired half way through the next season. He is in the Orioles HOF as a pitching coach, but his magic did not extend to Minnesota. Johnny Podres our pitching coach quit in protest of the Miller hire. Miller was universally disliked in twinkie land.
 
 
The man who replaced him is Minnesota legend Tom Kelly who lasted 16 years. Kelly had two world series teams and three second place finishes in 16 years with an overall pct of 478 which leads me back to the beginning of this blog - great because of two WS or lousy because he had less than 500 record? MN thinks of him as our greatest manager, but there is no quantifiable way to determine or prove this.
 
 
Ron Gardenhire another 2B player - we really do hire a lot of second basemen to manage - was next in line. He managed us for 13 years with a 507 pct which surpasses Kelly by a lot. He had six first place finishes, one second and two thirds. Then the Twins players stunk and we tired of our old friend and decided he was no longer a good manager. I hope he succeeds in Detroit.
 
 
Paul Molitor continued our love affair with second base managers and after a HOF career became manager for four years and became the target for criticism that I believe is erroneous and unfair. He finished 2,2,5,2 in his four years. Those are misleading finishes since we are in the worst division, but he was also MOY so good for him. Why was he bad? I know - BP - which was filled with such great arms as Matt Belisle...
 
 
And now Rocco Baldelli a seven year pro who was damaged by injury and is supposed to lead us to the promised land like all the other managers. I hope he does.

In 2018, the Twins and Fox Sports North used a variety of analysts alongside longtime Twins TV PBP guy Dick Bremer. Bert Blyleven, Roy Smalley, Jack Morris, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau (several times along with Smalley creating a 3-man booth), and Latroy Hawkins all took a shot at it this past year. Going into 2019, the crowd looks very similar. However, there appear to be multiple changes. Back in October, It was reported that the Twins were lessening the amount of games Bert Blyleven would work in 2019 and 2020. Blyleven will work around 50 games in 2019 and around 30 games in 2020 as part of his contract. In the near term, it makes me curious who will take those remaining games in 2019. In the long term, it makes me curious whether the Twins will be making significant changes to their broadcasts after 2020.
 
With Blyleven working fewer games, it's likely that the other Twins commentators will pick up the slack in 2019. Here's the case for each of these men:
Roy Smalley: According to the Twins website, Smalley has worked in some capacity on Twins broadcasts the past 16 seasons, first as a pre/post game analyst and the past few years as a fill in broadcast analyst. In my opinion, Smalley has tremendous knowledge of the game and among the contenders has the most broadcast experience. I think it's likely he sees the majority of the games available in Blyleven's absence, especially considering some camaraderie with Bremer as well as several occasions last year when Fox Sports North went with the 3-man booth of Bremer, Smalley, and Morneau.
Jack Morris: According to the Twins website, Morris has worked in some capacity on Twins broadcasts off and on since 2005. In addition to the Twins, Morris has been an analyst with both the Tigers and Blue Jays. Because of his extensive experience and pitching insight, it would seem likely that he would see an increase in his schedule similar to Smalley. However, recent reports out of the Detroit believe that Morris and Kirk Gibson will be the replacement for Rod Allen on Fox Sports Detroit after his highly publicized altercation with former play by play man Mario Impemba back in September. What's interesting about this is that Morris will likely see a heavy amount of Tigers games as Gibson has been diagnosed with Parkinson's Disease and generally works a limited amount of games. It's possible Morris will be the analyst for half or more than half of Tigers broadcasts. In addition to his occasional appearances on MLB Network and MLB.com, it's possible (and likely) that Morris doesn't return to Twins broadcasts in 2019 or if he does, returns in a heavily reduced role (10-15 games?) meaning that Hunter, Morneau, and Hawkins may have to pick up the games that Morris would normally work in addition to their regular schedules in the booth.
Torii Hunter: We all know Torii Hunter for his smile, off the cuff remarks, and flamboyant personality. In fact, these are traits he relies on in the broadcast booth. Along with Bremer, he provides a unique, positive, and entertaining analysis of the Minnesota Twins. However, he also serves as a special assistant in baseball operations, meaning he has another role to fill with the Twins that takes priority over broadcast analysis. Does that mean he can't work more? That remains to be seen.
Justin Morneau: Morneau showcased an extensive knowledge for baseball, particularly hitting, during his time in the booth and pre/post game chair in 2018, especially when he was paired with Roy Smalley in the booth for games. While Morneau also has a role within baseball operations, it seems like he's more willing to spend time as a broadcaster as he appeared on broadcasts more than Hawkins and Hunter in 2018. Additionally, he not only appeared in the booth, but also made appearances on the pre and post game shows. Out of the Hunter, Morneau, and Hawkins trio, it seems like Morneau is eyeing further broadcasting opportunities the most.
Latroy Hawkins: Rounding out the 2018 candidates is Hawkins. Out of the previous 3, Hawkins appears the most poised to be a broadcaster. He seems confident in the booth which aides his analytic approach to the game. This analytic approach is very much welcomed as Hawkins seems to be the only pitcher on this list to emphasize it as part of his analysis (I would argue Morneau and Smalley share a fair amount of analysis when on air). Bremer seems to encourage this as well when Hawkins is in the booth. Like Hunter and Morneau, Hawkins also works as a special assistant to baseball operations for the Twins. While Hawkins seems like the most polished among the three, he's continually seen the smallest workload. As a result, I'm curious if he's willing to reduce his baseball operations role to broadcast more or if Hawkins will continue to work only 10 or so games every year.
Outside Candidates: Another possibility is the Twins could add analysts in 2019 to this group to fill in the remaining games. Among former Twins personnel, Tom Kelly, Michael Cuddyer, Glen Perkins, Dan Gladden, and Joe Mauer would likely top the list. Kelly has previously worked in the booth on Fox Sports North. While Cuddyer and Mauer haven't broadcasted, Cuddyer seems like a natural every time he's in the booth as a guest and Mauer would bring prestige and higher ratings. Gladden likely will remain on the radio. Glen Perkins is interesting to me. He broadcasted a couple of Facebook games last year, so he clearly has interest in getting into the business. Being he's only been retired for a little over a year, he knows a good portion of the Twins roster and being from Minnesota, he would be a local celebrity, like Mauer. Fear not Twins fans, it could also be A.J. Pierzynski. Obviously, he brings a unique personality, has interest in broadcasting, and has history as a Twins player. I don't know how possible any of these are, but they could also be a possibility.

This answers the question surrounding 2019, but the Twins may have a broadcast opening after 2020. It seems like the reduction of Blyleven's schedule will lead to his eventual departure. Will it be one of the men listed above? That seems likely. However, it might also give the Twins in opportunity to search for media free agents. Bremer has been in the booth for 30+ years. Could he be nearing the end of his time with the Twins? Gladden has been in the booth for 15+ years. Could the Twins look to make a change there. While I believe Bremer, Provus, and Gladden are safe for both the short-term and long-term, it's likely the Twins will have an color analyst opening on Fox Sports North, interesting considering the current situation the network is in. This past year, Fox Sports North was sold as part of Fox's selloff of assets to Disney. However, Disney will be forced to resell the regional networks (FS North included). There are several candidates to purchase the networks, including Sinclair, Tegna (owns KARE 11), MLB, Amazon, Fox, Ice Cube (yes, the musician) and Comcast. However, multiple sources (including this NY Post article) speculate Jim Pohlad might be interested in purchasing Fox Sports North individually. The Twins tried and failed creating their own network (Victory Sports One) during the 2000s. However, they might have more clout with cable companies by purchasing a network that also broadcasts every other major men's professional team in Minnesota. Additionally, the Pohlad owned GO Radio stations already have an online and smartphone presence. Could they morph FOX Sports North into the GO branding similar to YES Network in New York, NESN in Boston, MASN in Baltimore/DC area, or the new Marquee channel the cubs are creating? In that case, Twins broadcasts would be directly under ownership. What could that mean for the broadcast teams long-term? A lot of questions have to be answered, but there are some interesting possibilities for Twins broadcasts over the next few years.