James Richter

We should expect younger players to improve all aspects of their game (except raw speed) as they gain experience. Arcia and Hicks have some work to do, and should be held accountable if they fail to show improvement in the field next year. But CF isn't Hicks' long-term position with this team anyway, and I can't conceive of how someone with his legs and arm won't turn out to be an above-average LF. Meanwhile, Schafer's career numbers in CF are only a touch below average - maybe he's the one to throw out there until Buxton comes along. While Hicks and Schafer's total OPS for the year is a bit below average for AL #8-9 hitters, and their OBPs are above average. If they can sustain or improve upon their numbers over the final 16 games, they should get every chance to win starting jobs next spring. I don't have a problem with the 2015 Twins setting themselves up to have a piranha-type offense from #8-#2 guys: get on and run the bases, and wait for the doubles from the #3-#7 spots. Defensively, I would expect improvement in RF (incremental growth from Arcia), CF (growth from Hicks or use Schafer) and LF (either Hicks or Schafer will be way better than Willingham/Kubel).

1) An MLB team is rebuilding when it shifts resources from sustaining the Major League core it has built around in the previous seasons (present value) toward accumulating young talent which will ideally mature into a new core (future value). Bill Smith's core was Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Span, Delmon Young, Kubel, Punto, a rotation including Liriano, Baker, Blackburn and Slowey, and a bullpen featuring Nathan, Guerrier, and Crain. 2) Depends upon how much present value there is when the rebuild begins, and how advanced the young talent coming in is. The post-Puckett rebuild began in earnest after a 94-loss 1997 season with the trade of their most valuable asset (Knoblauch) for a couple of new core pieces (Milton & Guzman). They averaged 67 wins from '98-'00 before returning to contention in 2001. I can't think of many examples where a bad team brings up a new core of players much faster than that. 3) I don't think the current rebuild begins with Ryan replacing Smith after 2011. Injuries and regression left the FO with nothing of value to trade. The most valuable player from 2011 was Cuddyer, and they wisely let him walk in order to pay Willingham less for similar production plus a comp pick. Most of that offseason was designed around giving the returning core players a chance to rebound. For me, the rebuild begins when they turned their high draft position and Cuddyer's comp pick into Buxton and Berrios. Those guys being high-schoolers, that put a realistic date for them making a major league impact at 2016 at the earliest. So, while we are witnessing our 4th straight year of way too much losing, we are only in our 3rd year of a rebuild we should be expecting to take 3-4 years. I think it's fair to expect the 2014 Twins to be winning more than they are, and for the 2015 Twins to be not bad (.500 seems like a reasonable goal). But contending next year? Nope, too early, probably not going to happen.

It's apparent that a lot of fans are sick and tired of all the losing. Many are frustrated that the rebuild Terry Ryan has undertaken isn't showing better results. But is that fair? Three questions: 1) What does it mean for an MLB team to be rebuilding? 2) How long should a rebuild take? 3) How far along are the Twins in their rebuilding process?

I'm much more engaged than this time last year. Part of it is rooting for some exciting young players to solidify spots for next year - I really got into May working his way out of those jams last night where he had previously fallen apart (baby steps!). Another is that they are, more often than not, in the game even when they lose. They came up on the short end pretty regularly against the Royals and Angels recently, but they were competitive in 6 of the 7 contests, and it made for some entertaining baseball. Much better than last September, when more than half the losses were blow-outs.

MLB relievers as a whole have a 1.28 WHIP. Only Perkins and Fien have significantly exceeded that standard and deserve to be called "good." The rest are below the mark to varying degrees and easily replaceable - no reason to pick up options or go to arbitration for 2015, plenty of good arms available from AAA or the FA market. In defense of Perkins, while his last 30 days have seen his worst K% and highest HR% of the season, his overall numbers are still plenty good for a Closer. It isn't that Perk is giving up zillions of hits all of a sudden, it's that the hits he has given up are for extra bases and came with nobody out. Very tough to avoid giving up runs under those circumstances. It could be he's fatigued, or it could be just another SSS fluke.

I think for everybody's sanity it would be best to see some indication that the guys who are getting more playing time this month can win at a decent clip against .500-ish competition. I can forgive them for losing a bunch of games in the last at-bat to the best team in baseball. Now I want to see them win at least half of their 6 Sept. games against Cleveland. Last night was a good start.

It took Bill Smith 4 years to completely flush away all the good things TR had spent a decade+ building. Shouldn't TR get at least that much time to try to put things back together?

I'll give a shout-out to Stuart Turner. I get visions of Drew Butera sometimes when people talk about how good a defensive catcher he is (shh - never mind the bat). But the .698 OPS he put up in Fort Myers in his age 22 season was actually just a tick above average for the Florida State League. If he can keep swinging an average stick while he works his way up he's going to be pretty valuable player.

Delmon Young's awfulness in the field in 2010 seems to have been offset by the sensational up-the-middle D provided by Span/Hardy/Hudson/Mauer. The point is, that staff's rather good ERA was exactly in line with its FIP & xFIP because the batted ball outcomes against it were normal overall. When you have elite defenders at multiple positions, you can have a plodder or two and have it come out in the wash. As the Twins have merely average-ish defenders penciled in at most positions for 2015, improving the D in LF from ghastly to good is likely to improve the overall balance of the fielders and have a positive impact on BABIP, therefore moving the ERA closer to FIP. It's not a magic bullet, but it should help.

For me, what the 19/20-year olds did in Cedar Rapids, even in partial seasons, was more impressive than what the older guys did in Fort Myers/New Britain.

I hadn't realized the ERA/FIP discrepancy was in its 4th straight year. That degree of consistent underperforming is definitely the sort of thing that should get a coach fired. Whether the Twins sign a LF or go with Hicks or Schafer, we should expect much improved range out there compared with the Delmon Young/Josh Willingham days. Hopefully that can help bring the ERAs a little closer to where they ought to be.

1. Hughes (3.18 xFIP) 2. Gibson (4.01) 3. Nolasco (4.15) 4. Milone (4.24 career xFIP) 5. Pelfrey (4.55 career xFIP) That's not awesome, but it shouldn't be crappy, either. Short leash for everybody because the AAA depth should be good. Ideally, trade Pelfrey early in the season to let in May/Meyer. Also, watch for high-upside opportunities on the FA market. Guys like Justin Masterson, Brett Anderson & Brandon Morrow might be available on 1-year, value-rebuilding deals.

Nice analysis. It's a good illustration of why I think the Twins should be patient with the FA market this offseason - what they've already got is pretty decent. The key to 2010 was scooping up Thome and Hudson on cheap, 1-year deals 3 weeks before spring training. The Orioles followed that formula this winter with Nelson Cruz. That's how the Twins should try to improve the roster for 2015 while making sure they don't block any of the goodies that are on their way up through the farm system.

The fan base has clearly lost interest in the product the Twins have been putting on the field. But I agree with Nick that an aggressive roster overhaul this offseason would be a mistake. If the FO is thinking that way, too, then replacing Gardy may be the most effective way to reassure the fans that next year won't be more of the same.

Particularly damning for the coaching staff this year is the degree to which this team's record is underperforming against expectations. By the Pythagorean expected winning% they should have 4 more wins and be on target for a sub-90 loss season. That would make a huge difference in terms of showing progress to the fan base. Also, in the 2nd half the pitching staff has an ERA more than a full run higher than FIP and xFIP. Part of that's the defense, but I think it has more to do with all the crooked numbers the staff has been allowing. The starters fold as soon as they get in a jam; the relievers come in to stop the bleeding but instead throw gas on the fire. That's been true of rookies and veterans alike. Under the circumstances, a change in pitching coach is definitely warranted, and I wouldn't be upset if Gardy moved along as well.

To give an idea of how out of hand May's BABIP numbers are right now, MLB is batting .640 on liners, .080 on flies, and .245 on grounders. May's opponents so far are hitting .792 on liners, .087 on flies and .387 on grounders (according to baseball-reference). The flies are about right, but the liners and grounders are ludicrously high and we can expect them to come down drastically as the sample size increases. His HR/FB rate is about where you'd expect it. The improvement he's shown in the things he can control over the last 3 starts is very encouraging - compare May's last 4 GS (19.2 IP, 30 H, 19 ER, 3 HR, 6 BB, 19 K) to Hughes' first 4 GS as a Twin (21 IP, 29 H, 15 ER, 3 HR, 6 BB, 20 K). Hughes' BABIP over that stretch was .394, since then it's been a much more reasonable (though still high) .322. I expect to see May complete 6 IP a couple times before the season ends. He was so good in AAA this year, I don't know that he has much left to prove there. I'm sure he'll get every opportunity to make the rotation next spring.

Bernier is a bit of a head-scratcher, but I like the other 7. They earned their promotions with their play in the minors, and they have a chance to contribute something in 2015. Plus, they might take some innings and ABs away from some players who have been struggling recently (Nunez, Fryer, half the bullpen). I wish a few of the really exciting prospects had been fit enough to come up, but it could still be a productive September.

I'd kinda like to see Wimmers get a chance. After 3 lost seasons he's finally starting to show something, especially since being moved to the pen. It would be nice to evaluate him in a hostile pitching environment against a league full of stud hitters before making a 40-man decision on him in November. I like the 6 guys they picked, but I think Levi Michael would have been a good choice, too. When he's been on the field this year he's been really good, but he hasn't been tested much above A-ball. Guess I'm just hoping our formerly struggling 1st-round picks can still amount to something!

I think the Twins can definitely afford to be patient with this year's FA market. By year's end they might find that Hicks and Schafer both finished the year strongly, Buxton and Rosario kicked ass in the AFL, and Sano picked up right where he left off in winter ball. If 2 or more of those things come to pass, there's probably no need to even worry about LF. The FO can sit back with all their chips and wait for a Jim Thome/Orlando Hudson-type bargain to materialize in the final weeks before spring training.

There's way too much uncertainty surrounding Sano's development and final position right now to say conclusively that he'll be manning the hot corner at any point in 2015. Meanwhile, we already have a cost-controlled, average or better performer at the position. Now, if somebody approaches the FO and offers an overpay for Plouffe, make the deal. But they shouldn't be shopping him until Sano proves he's ready to stick at 3B in the Majors.

A big reason why the Twins have been so terrible the past 4 seasons is that their bench and AAA depth has been sub-replacement level. Starters get hurt, and even when healthy need regular days off. Even assuming he plays every game for the remainder of the season, Mauer will have averaged just 123 games played over the past 6 seasons. It is not a smart bet that his durability will significantly improve as he gets deeper into his 30's. It is also not a smart bet that Suzuki will be a productive player for more than 100 starts behind the plate. Remember what happened to Parmelee after his terrific 1st month of MLB experience when he came straight up from AA? That could happen to Vargas, too. Between C & DH there should be at least 90 starts available for Pinto in 2015, and he'd be a great PH option in the other games when they bring the LOOGY in to face Arcia. Next year's team is better with him on it.

If I’d told you before the season started that, 20 games in, Denard Span would have a .386 OBP, Joe Mauer would be hitting .329 and Justin Morneau would have an IsoP of .236, plus newcomer Josh Willingham would have a 1.114 OPS, what would you have expected the Twins’ record to be? Better than 5-15, I hope. There are a lot of reasons why it is that poor, and some of them are not easily solved, but I don’t believe the offense is one of them. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: cfiles16803.jpg Ultimately, it’s about scoring runs, and those numbers are not good. The Twins have crossed the plate just 77 times in their first 20 games, putting them on pace to score 624 runs. Unless they pick it up, we’ll be facing 100 losses again at the end of September. Fortunately, they have picked it up. Since forgetting to bring their bats to the opening series in Baltimore, the Twins have hit .279/.343/.419 with 11/14 SB. If you plug their offensive numbers from the past 17 games into a simple formulation of Runs Created, you get just over 5 runs/game, on pace for about 820 runs on the year. That’s a lineup that can contend in a weak AL Central. Sadly, the formula hasn’t been reflective of their real-world performance. They’ve actually averaged 4.2 runs/game over their last 17, a pace for 686 runs on the season. With this pitching staff, that will probably leave them at least 10 games under .500. There are two major reasons for this discrepancy between the formula and what’s really happened over the last 3 weeks. Happily, neither is likely to be a problem over the long haul. First, though they’ve hit well overall, they’ve had a lot of trouble cashing in on their scoring opportunities. Since Baltimore, they’re hitting .241 with RISP. In 2011, they hit .249 overall and .248 with RISP, and the AL as a whole hit .257 overall and .258 with RISP. With a large enough sample size, the numbers will even out. Unless you believe there’s something inherently un-clutch about the Twins’ hitters. I don’t. Second, there are the double plays. The Twins have already hit into 22 DPs, a rate of 1 for every 11.5 baserunners. The other 13 teams in the AL have combined to hit into 200, about 15 apiece, a rate of 1 for every 16.3 baserunners. Just in case you think there’s something about the Twins’ hitting style that makes them more likely to hit into DPs, last year’s horrific offense did so at a rate of... 1 for every 16.5 baserunners. Given enough time, the frequency of Twin-killings should normalize. Not only are they hitting into more than their share of DPs, they’re doing it disproportionately in games where it hurts the most. The Twins had 8 of them turned against them in 4 games they lost by a single run. Had they been able to redistribute one rally-killing DP away from each of those games (such as Sean Burroughs’ on Wednesday or the dicey call on Doumit’s sinking liner on Friday), it’s not hard to imagine them having 3-4 more wins than they do right now. And, given the strength of their early-season opponents and their disastrous starting pitching, 8-9 wins at this stage would be a decent accomplishment. I would expect their BABIP to come down somewhat over the course of the season. Even so, this lineup appears to be capable of producing at least 750 runs over 162 games. That’s a strength - the average AL team scored 723 runs in 2011. The Twins’ typical starting 9 earns about $54M combined. Doumit is the only guy in that group who isn’t under contract or team control for 2013. The other 8 could all be back for a combined salary of... about $54M. This team’s troubles sit squarely on the pitching side. They may not be solvable this year, but there will be an opportunity to mostly wipe the slate clean next offseason. The quality and stability of the offense gives them the opportunity to devote just about all of their resources to upgrading the pitching. They’ve got big problems this year, but I wouldn’t dismantle the offense and write off 2013 yet. Click here to view the article

It's easy to be down on the Twins' prospects for this year. 2011 was in many ways their worst season ever, and the offseason moves by Terry Ryan didn't do much more than maintain the talent level they started with last April. So we must be headed for another dreadful season, right? Not so fast. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins allowed 804 runs last year. Their pitching staff was last in the Majors in K/9, 29th in ERA and 29th in WHIP. But they were also last in BABIP, suggesting that things might bounce better for them this year. Their FIP (4.30), xFIP (4.33) and SIERA (4.27), though still among the worst in the league, indicate the pitchers deserved better than their 4.60 team ERA. Were they to pitch precisely as poorly in 2012, they could be expected to allow 45 fewer ER over the same number of innings. The defense, somewhat surprisingly, wasn't terrible in terms of range. UZR/150, for example, has them at just -0.4 R for the season. What killed them were errors; they were 28th in errors and fielding percentage. The 80 unearned runs they allowed were by far the most of the Gardy era. Over the last 10 seasons, they've averaged between 50-60 UER. Cutting back on errors is something the Twins can control, and with the additional emphasis they're placing on fundamentals this spring, I would expect them to reduce their mistakes by about 1/3. Simply replacing the abysmal play they got at SS with Jamey Carroll's excellent career averages at the position would eliminate 19 errors and 13 UER. On the run prevention side of the ledger, if you give the Twins' pitchers a 4.30 ERA over 1450 IP (a roughly league average total), they will allow 693 ER. If you assume that the more focused and slightly upgraded defense will cough up a more typical 55 UER, you get a total of 748 RA. The offensive side is clouded by lingering injury concerns to some key players. But until I hear reports to the contrary, I'm going to assume that everyone is healthy, and therefore ready to contribute at the levels they've established in recent years. The exception is Morneau - I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to return to the MVP-caliber play he displayed before his concussion. Below is a table which builds a simple formulation of runs created: (H+BB-CS)x(TB+.55SB)/(AB+BB). The numbers I'm projecting for the starters are based on the stats from their last 3 healthy seasons, prorated over the number of ABs they racked up in a typical year. Span's averages go from 2008 up to the point of his concussion; Doumit's and Casilla's include 2008 since they missed so many games between 2009-2011. I'm throwing out Mauer's 2011 as an injury aberration and using 2008-2010 instead. With Morneau, I'm also throwing out 2011, but estimating only 75% of his 2008-2010 production over 140 games. I'm only using Major League stats for Valencia and Revere. The starters account for about 77% of the total ABs the Twins had in 2011. The remainder will go to the bench, which I assume will be Butera, Nishioka, Plouffe and Hughes, or similarly unimpressive players. Whoever comes up from Rochester will also be thrown into that pool. I'll give that cast of characters a 23% share of the Punto-esque numbers the Twins hitters as group posted last year (.247/.306/.360). The results: [TABLE=width: 500, align: center] Player AB H BB TB SB CS RC Span 593 172 68 233 24 7 87 Carroll 410 111 50 141 10 2 51 Mauer 523 178 75 263 2 2 111 Morneau 524 118 55 208 0 0 62 Willingham 471 121 67 226 5 1 80 Doumit 419 118 31 188 2 1 62 Valencia 540 145 38 219 3 4 68 Casilla 317 82 28 112 11 2 37 Revere 450 120 26 139 34 9 45 Subs 1240 307 99 446 24 18 133 Total 5487 1472 537 2175 115 46 729 [/TABLE] 729 runs scored. 748 runs allowed. That differential should result in around 80 wins. With no improvement from the pitching staff, and with Morneau hitting something like .225/.299/.397 over 140 games. From there, the upside is considerable. What if Baker is healthy enough to take Diamond's starts? Subtract 7 ER. Or if Zumaya can apply his 3.05 career ERA to Nathan's 44.2 IP? Subtract 9 ER. What if Revere improves his average to .280? Add 5 RC. What if Morneau is 80% of his former self? Add 8 RC. The 2012 Twins don't look like they're going to be a very good team, but they shouldn't suck, either. As long as they aren't unlucky and can put their best guys on the field about 3/4 of the time, they should be around .500. I wouldn't expect any less of them. Click here to view the article

The boost in payroll from Target Field's revenue was more about keeping from our home-grown stars than hiring big free agents. This year it enabled them to avoid salary-dumping deadline trades that would have diminished a solid lineup that can return intact in 2013. This offseason we'll see whether they can spend that extra cash wisely on fixing the rotation. Pre-Target Field that wouldn't have even been a possibility.

Span's numbers in 2010 were mediocre because his BABIP was about 25 points below his career average. That happens to everybody once in awhile. I think he overreacted to it by being more aggressive at the plate, reducing his walk rate. Still, given normal luck his OPS would have easily been over .700 (which is about the best we can expect from Revere). Last year, if you throw out the games in which he was trying to play through a concussion, he hit .298/.361/.408. As of today, he's hitting .297/.361/.402 in 2012. His non-concussed career averages are .291/.365/.395. Twins fans have undervalued him. The front office, fortunately, has not.