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James Richter

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Everything posted by James Richter

  1. James Richter
    Shedding the salaries of Pavano, Liriano, Baker and Marquis saves the Twins $23.5M. There are an abundance of plus pitchers available on the FA market this offseason. Could 2 of those pitchers be signed for $10-12M each? Absolutely. Unfortunately, the Twins are stuck with Blackburn, but with good 2nd halves from Diamond and Hendriks 4 of the 5 rotation spots could be solid. Gibson will be working his way back in the event of Blackburn falling apart. League average lineup, decent rotation, good bullpen, crappy division - would they really be out of it next year?
  2. James Richter
    Those picks won't be in play for even the top players. According to the new CBA: "Only players who have been with their clubs for the entire season will be subject to compensation." Once an impending FA gets traded, he can be offered arbitration by his new club, but they get nothing if he declines. So only superstars and players under team control for multiple seasons are going to bring big returns. Everybody else is only going to get the price of a 2-month (or less) rental, which is usually nothing special. If Liriano's last two starts should prove to be the standard for the remainder of the season, I would plan on offering him arbitration at the compensation level. $12.5M for 1 year is by far the least the Twins would have to invest to get an ace-caliber pitcher. If Liriano thinks he can get more on the open market, collect the picks. I'd measure any offers at the trade deadline against those potential rewards. If he forgets how to throw strikes again in 2013, it's a bad deal, but then again, how good are the Twins going to be next year anyway? The potential rewards would be worth the gamble. (But he's got to have another 10 awesome starts before anybody has to worry about it.)
  3. James Richter
    Possible benefits to sending Dozier down: stepping off the train for a few weeks could give him a chance to catch up mentally, which might help him at the plate and in the field; might ensure that he's not a Super-2 after 2014. To replace him, they could put Florimon on the bench and have Casilla play every day for a few weeks, or they could give Burroughs another shot starting only against RHPs (.881 OPS at AAA). Plouffe has pretty extreme platoon splits right now - I'd love to see him even it out, but it looks more likely that he needs to be a guy who only starts vs. LHPs. If splitting time with Burroughs works, I'm not worried about 3B for the next couple years. Having said that, I don't think there's any urgency to make a move with the IF for the next little while. By the way, in fairness to Nishioka, check out his monthly splits. Nothing wonderful yet (and small sample sizes all), but they're definitely trending in the right direction, as though he might be acclimating to the level. He's going to get paid $3M next season no matter where he plays, so it'd be nice for him to get to the point where the Twins could make him the bench MI and spot him in the #9 hole once or twice a week.
  4. James Richter
    I think he's nailed the market for Greinke. Look at the RH SPs making $20M/year - Verlander, Cain, Felix, Halladay - all of them have much lower ERAs with way more IP since 2009 (which includes Greinke's Cy Young season). I don't think many GMs are going to say he's worth as much as those guys, though he'll probably do better than Lackey/AJ Burnett (5/$82 or so). $18.5M/yr for 5 years plus a $7.5M buyout of a 6th year that vests if he's healthy is my guess for what he'll get. That shouldn't be beyond the Twins' means. However, 2 from the lower part of the list (to which I'd add Dempster and Brandon McCarthy) at $10-12M/yr for 3-4 years is a lot less risky, and the results would still be pretty meaningful. Perhaps throw in a discounted 1-year flier on Baker or somebody else trying to come back from injury, with Gibson hopefully in the pipeline for midsummer, and the whole complexion of the pitching staff would be changed for the better. If there's something left over for position players, spiffy. But SP has to be the #1 offseason priority, and they need to be a lot better than Marquis or Livan.
  5. James Richter
    If Benson had continued to progress at AAA, I would have said Span or especially Revere was expendable. With his demotion and DL time, though, I don't see him as someone the Twins can count on for opening day 2013. I'd hang onto all the outfielders until he's ready. Willingham, Span and Revere are all under team-friendly terms through at least 2014 - they'll be tradable next year, too. That said, if somebody's desperate this summer and wants to overpay, trade away.
  6. James Richter
    The best coach I ever had was somebody who would look at his roster every preseason and revise his system to capitalize on the strengths of the players he had. That's a much better approach than trying to make all your talent fit into the same rigid formula year after year. But the Twins seem to do the latter: trying to make David Ortiz use the whole field, dumping JJ Hardy because a SS should have more speed, preferring a "bat-control" guy in the #2 spot regardless of his OBP. Perhaps you can think of other examples. There are happy accidents like 2010 (Thome loved to drive the ball the other way, Hardy was acquired mainly for his defense, Orlando Hudson actually was a good #2 hitter), but generally the coaches' pre-conceived notions seem to hold this team back.
  7. James Richter
    I think Dickey (and his buddy Slowey) would be proud to see himself discussed with such erudition. Like the anti-Souhan. Maybe we should start a book club!
  8. James Richter
    I've set the first 36 games aside. That was the low point when you consider winning% (.278) combined with games under .500 (-16). The offense was hitting .235/.313/.350 with 3.3 R/G, pitching had 5.28 ERA and 5.4 K/9, Run Differential was -72. In game #37, Morneau came off the DL and brought some power back to the lineup. In the 20 games since the offense is hitting .264/.329/.425 with 5.2 R/G, the pitching has a 4.58 ERA and 6.7 K/9, and the Differential is +2 (due to too many unearned runs). Those numbers are sustainable. All things being equal, I'd expect the Twins to sit give or take 12 games under .500 for the rest of the season. The question is whether they'll hit a hot streak like the White Sox have been on recently, and how much such a streak would offset the hole they've dug themselves.
  9. James Richter
    So far in AA, Hicks' OPS is about .050 better than Span's at the same age and level. His OPS vs. RHP is about the same as Span's. Fangraphs and Baseball Reference agree that Span has been worth about 3.9 WAR/150 games. That's pretty valuable - only the top 25 pitchers in baseball had a higher WAR in 2011. I know we're all disappointed that Hicks isn't hitting like the second coming of Carlos Beltran, but if all he amounts to is Denard Span with more pop and a better arm, we should still be very pleased. So, no, he's not going to pitch. As for the switch hitting, his Iso from the right side this year is .146 and from the left it's .152. His K/BB ratio is nearly identical from each side. His (back of the napkin) BABIP from the right side is about .372 (probably coming down a bit as the year goes on) and .270 from the left (probably going up). The main trouble is that he's had far more PAs from the left side in which he hasn't put the ball in play. He's seems to be less aggressive (more passive?) versus RHP. He needs to learn to overcome his natural tendency to sit back and let it rip earlier in the count. He's still young enough that he could develop a more assertive approach through coaching and experience.
  10. James Richter
    It makes it more likely that Span will walk as a FA in 2015 or 2016, depending on how Buxton, Hicks, Benson, et al progress. With Benson's setback this spring, I would think the Twins would be hesitant to deal Span, Willingham or Revere in 2012. All of those guys are under team control through at least 2014. When Benson and/or Hicks are ready to stick in the Bigs, then we might see one of the current OFs moved. Until then, the $12M or so those guys are going to cost in 2013 is a pretty good price for a quality starting outfield, even if you are rebuilding.
  11. James Richter
    Fascinating that the Astros made us choose between Appel and Buxton. It looks as though Buxton adds the most value, so I think it was the right decision. Now watch Boras' guy drop from $7.2M to under $3.5M!
  12. James Richter
    It'll be really interesting to see how this dynamic plays out. There's no reason to think any of the top 8-10 guys would be drafted as high again in the future, so they don't really have any leverage, and their agents should know it. From what I've read, the Mariners love Zunino and the Orioles prefer Gausman, which means if Appel doesn't go #1 or #2, he could fall to #5. That's about half the slot money of #1. If he's available at #2, I'd tell Boras he's got 5 minutes to accept $5.5M from us or else we're taking Correa. Then take the $700K saved plus the $600K we can safely go over and be aggressive with the BPA who's dropped into the supplemental round.
  13. James Richter
    It's that or DeVries and Manship/Swarzak, plus the cracks are already starting to show in Walters. Sign Francis today.
  14. James Richter
    How many Twins starting pitchers do you have confidence in? For me, the list begins and ends with Scott Diamond. How sad is that? Check this out: Through Sunday's games, the average AL starter gives his team just under 6 IP/GS with a 4.33 ERA. The Twins have gotten just 5 1/3 IP/GS with a 6.18 ERA. With league average starting pitching, the Twins would have allowed 41 fewer ER in 34.1 more IP. That reduced workload on the bullpen (3.58 ERA) saves another 14 ER, for a total of 55 fewer RA. The resulting 210 RS and 229 RA differential produces a pythagorean record of 24-29. Hardly stellar, but with the league's most difficult opening schedule behind them they would be on pace to win at least 10 more games than last year. That's a team that still needs a lot of work, but is far from hopeless. This weekend I was wishing there was some way the Twins could find a decent guy to hold down a spot in their decimated rotation without having to give up too much - a difficult task in the middle of the season. But the Reds have just released Jeff Francis. There's a cheap, veteran replacement for Jason Marquis (or Carl Pavano or Nick Blackburn depending on how you look at it). I never thought I'd say this, but, "Pretty please, let's sign Jeff Francis right away!"
  15. James Richter
    How many Twins starting pitchers do you have confidence in? For me, the list begins and ends with Scott Diamond. How sad is that? Check this out: Through Sunday's games, the average AL starter gives his team just under 6 IP/GS with a 4.33 ERA. The Twins have gotten just 5 1/3 IP/GS with a 6.18 ERA. With league average starting pitching, the Twins would have allowed 41 fewer ER in 34.1 more IP. That reduced workload on the bullpen (3.58 ERA) saves another 14 ER, for a total of 55 fewer RA. The resulting 210 RS and 229 RA differential produces a pythagorean record of 24-29. Hardly stellar, but with the league's most difficult opening schedule behind them they would be on pace to win at least 10 more games than last year. That's a team that still needs a lot of work, but is far from hopeless. This weekend I was wishing there was some way the Twins could find a decent guy to hold down a spot in their decimated rotation without having to give up too much - a difficult task in the middle of the season. But the Reds have just released Jeff Francis. There's a cheap, veteran replacement for Jason Marquis (or Carl Pavano or Nick Blackburn depending on how you look at it). I never thought I'd say this, but, "Pretty please, let's sign Jeff Francis right away!"
  16. James Richter
    If I had to make changes to it, I'd actually check the numbers he threw out there. Aaron Hicks is faring better at AA, in terms of OPS, in-game power and SB%, for example; Alex Wimmers has not had Tommy John surgery (yet); Morneau is owed $14M next season, not $13M. He lumps the defense in with the pitching as worst in the league because he's looking at defensive efficiency. True, the D was terrible last year, but the consensus among the metrics I've seen shows the 2012 defense as a bit above average. I guess that didn't fit with the narrative. These numbers aren't hard to check, and when you can't get those little things right, it kinda makes you look like you don't know what you're talking about.
  17. James Richter
    Good pitchers have to dominate a bad lineup, and Frankie did that today. I was impressed with how he was able to battle back from a bunch of 3-0 counts. How many times have we seen him put that guy on and dig a big hole for himself? A few well-struck outs, but 2 of the 3 knocks they got were weakly hit, so it evens out. All in all, great start! Now do it again.
  18. James Richter
    Outside of the 8 games where he tried to play through a sore wrist at the end of April, Morneau is hitting .269/.338/.582. True, a couple more hits on curves in play would nudge the BA and OBP a little closer to his career standards (.280 & .352). But if he can keep producing the way he has when healthy, I've got no complaints.
  19. James Richter
    While that's tops for FAs so far, they have handed out 5 contracts of 4+ years and $33M+ since 2005. Obviously, they will try to commit as little as possible on FAs while still upgrading the staff - that's just good business. But if they don't have the will to spend what they have to in order to meaningfully upgrade the staff, well... then they're as bad as you think they are.
  20. James Richter
    No doubt, Marquis and Pavano will be easy to replace with similar pitchers. But the need to break the mold couldn't be clearer at this point. A RH #2 starter is probably going to get $10M-$14M/year for 3-4 years as a FA. That has to be the Twins' biggest offseason priority, because that type of pitcher isn't going to come from within the organization. As for making this an attractive place to pitch, a lot will depend on how they finish the season. If the offense can recover to the level it was hitting in April (upper half of the league) and the 'pen remains effective and a few of the young players show they are acclimating to the Majors, hopefully one or two quality SPs would take a market value contract here believing that they could be part of a team on the upswing. The medical staff is a real liability, though. I can't think of any move that would add more value to the organization more cheaply than overhauling that group.
  21. James Richter
    How about the PJ Walters vs. Jose Bautista AB last weekend? Borderline 2-strike pitch from a marginal big leaguer to a former MVP goes the MVP's way. The AB continues and Bautista hits a HR that decides the game. If Roy Halladay had thrown the very same pitch to Trevor Plouffe, do you think the ump would have called it differently? Should he have?
  22. James Richter
    I think you're on the right track with this, though I wouldn't count on Gibson until midseason. Two other guys I'd throw in with Dempster and Sanchez: Colby Lewis and Shawn Marcum. Fly ball pitchers, low BB/9, right around 200 IP in consecutive years. And how about bringing Baker back on a cheap, incentive-laden 1-year deal? Plan on him being available by mid-May. So you start the season like this: McCarthy Dempster/Lewis/et al. Hendriks Diamond Blackburn Baker is in reserve to take over for whoever is struggling the most after 7-8 GS, Gibson after that. Perhaps our #2 overall pick as early as September? Depth! Whichever FAs you prefer, this has to be the formula for 2013. Right now, the Twins have around $28M invested in 5 veteran starters who have combined for about -3 WAR. If they maintain that rotation budget for next year, they'll have $22M or so to drop on a couple of front end starters after accounting for Blackburn and a serf or two. This offseason's FA market is flush with solid SP. Signing at least two of them is the only hope the Twins have to stay afloat.
  23. James Richter
    Correct. This is why Red Sox/Yankees games take so blasted long to play: everybody in both lineups knows the ump doesn't want to call them out on a borderline pitch. If there has to be bias, it would be better if the umps erred on the side of calling close pitches strikes. Hitters would take more swings earlier in the count, there'd be more balls in play, fewer pitches thrown, and faster games. Maybe we could get back to 11-man pitching staffs!
  24. James Richter
    If you're getting value out of league-minimum guys, $23M sunk into one All-Star isn't going to hurt that much, even if payroll does drop into the $80Ms. The Hole is here because, whether by trade or the draft, the Twins haven't acquired a single prospect who has made a sustained, positive Major League impact since 2005. Part of that is cyclical - even in the 1st round, only about half the picks pan out. But another big factor is the failure of the Twins' medical and training staff to keep good players healthy, at all levels of the organization. Lack of depth at the upper levels + lots of injuries to your few key players = lot of bad baseball. Thankfully, the Twins seemed poised to add some cheap talent back into the mix in the next 12-14 months. A little more maturation/adjustments from Dozier, Revere, Parmelee, Benson, Hendriks, Gibson, Guerra, Waldrop, Diamond, etc. and they'll have the makings of a low-cost core around which a few judicious FA selections (a la Willingham & Doumit) and maybe one splurge could lift them back to the top of a very low-quality AL Central. The rest of this season is about seeing how far those young guys can get by October.
  25. James Richter
    As long as there are more bidders than sellers, the sellers win. If the Twins aren't blown away by an offer for Span during the season, they should just hang onto him. Players can get traded during the offseason, too. Getting inadequate value in trades is one of the reasons we're in this mess right now.
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