Shane Wahl

It's a very bizarre story. I am not thoroughly assured that the justice system in that country is up to snuff on any level, so who knows how guilty he was in the first place.

It really isn't going to matter in terms of OBP who bats first or second. Things being relatively equal with respect to OBP (within 40 points or so, sorry Mastro), I would put the faster guy 1st.

Grimes is CATCHING, Seth!? Wow. That would change things if he can even put up marginally better numbers than he did in 2012. That will be interesting to watch. I am going to be a bit low on relief pitchers . . . And Guerra passed through waivers as thrylos says.

If Marcum goes for 2 years and under 20 million bucks to someone other than the Twins I am going to blow a gasket.

This is the first in a series of blog posts breaking down my top 60 Twins prospects. I realized that I had omitted Ryan Pressly and Zach Jones from my initial list, so they will make it into the series now. Overall the system has improved dramatically in the past two years, both at the top and with respect to depth. Honorable Mention: Matthew Koch, Bobby Lanigan, Tyler Grimes HM: Matthew Koch: After an inconsequential 2011, Koch started out of the gates hot in the first half of his season and then cooled off. He ended with a .253/.349/.421 (.770) line and hit 8 homers in 359 plate appearances. He also struck out 106 times and that was the major cause of his fall in the second half. If he can regain some of that offensive prowess displayed early and cut down on the whiffs, he could rise up the list. He just turned 24, however, so the clock is ticking. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-16. HM: Bobby Lanigan: Lanigan is falling off the prospect map and 2013 might be his last chance to turn his career around. In 225+ inning in AA, he has a 4.51 ERA and 5.8/2.2 per nine K/BB rate. AAA was significantly worse for him in 2012. He’ll be 26 in May. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: never or 2013-2014. HM: Tyler Grimes: Grimes was successful in his first partial year in professional baseball in 2011, but repeating Beloit in 2012 got him nowhere. In 222 more plate appearances, his OPS dropped 69 points. His defense at shortstop also went south in 2012 so he might be moving to 2B or 3B, which could help his chances if he can start hitting again and he has a bit of time (turns 23 in July). Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016. 60. Logan Darnell (DOB: 2-2-89), LH starter: Darnell struggled at New Britain in 2012, posting a 5.08 in 156 innings with a 5.7/2.7 per nine K/BB rate. His fastball tops out in the low 90s and he has a decent changeup. He very well could end up moving to the bullpen, but for now will likely stick as a starter for 2013. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: never or 2014-2015. 59. Tyler Jones (DOB: 9-5-89), RH starter: Jones had a fairly impressive 2012 year at Beloit. He gives up too many hits and walks too many (1.442 WHIP), but struck out 102 in 86+ innings. His fastball tops out in the mid 90s and he will need to work on his secondary pitches (slider, changeup) to improve. He is someone I may consider as a 2013 breakout candidate and he could move up this prospect list very quickly. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016. 58. Romy Jimenez (DOB: 5-14-91), RH outfielder: After spending the vast majority of his time in the organization in the DSL, Jimenez burst on the scene in 2012 in Elizabethon. In 139 plate appearances he posted a 1.108 OPS, with 12 doubles, 8 homers, and 19 walks (vs. 25 strikeouts). The outfield depth chart is obviously crowded in the organization, but Jimenez could hold his own in his first full season. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2016-2017. 57. Pedro Hernandez (DOB: 4-12-89), LH starter: Hernandez came over in the Francisco Liriano trade and has a bit of promise. I am potentially undervaluing him, but the falling K rate 10.2, 8.4, 8.3, 7.0, 6.5, 6.0 at each successive level in the minors worries me. That said, he does not walk many hitters and has solid command of multiple pitches (fastball, sinker, changeup). Might be the left-handed version of Liam Hendriks. His fastball hits the low 90s, so command is going to be vital for the lefty going forward and his stock may rise dramatically by mid-season. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: 2013-2014. 56. Taylor Rogers (DOB: 12-17-90), LH starter/reliever: Drafted in the 11th round in 2012, Rogers pitched at two levels, finishing well in Beloit. Splitting time as a starter and reliever, he pitched 33+ innings, striking out 35 and walking 12. With a high 80s-low 90s fastball, his secondary pitches (curveball, changeup) are going to need to continue to be effective if he is too remain a starter. A solid pitcher, all-around, he is very unlikely to be a bust. Expected start: Cedar Rapids or Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016. 55. Pat Dean (DOB: 5-25-89), LH starter: Dean uses a low 90s fastball mixed in with good secondary pitches (curveball, changeup) to maintain solid, though not overpowering numbers as a left-handed starter. The strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff but he also keeps the walks pretty low. I am skeptical of continued success as he moves up, but he could wind up (for better or worse) being the left-handed BJ Hermsen. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: Never or 2014-2015. 54. Deolis Guerra (DOB: 4-17-89), RH reliever: Early in 2012 it looked like Guerra’s move to the bullpen was entirely successful and that he might be on a fast track to the Twins bullpen. He dominated at AA but ended the season struggling in Rochester, posting a 4.87 ERA in 57+ innings of work there. The K rate is still impressive and if he can keep the walks low, Guerra should find success in AAA this year. Given that the Twins bullpen could regress with the likes of Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak (and even Casey Fien), we may see Guerra with the Twins at some point this year. Expected start: Rochester: ETA: 2013-2014. 53. Tim Shibuya (DOB: 9-14-89), RH starter: After a successful 2011 in rookie ball, Shibuya regressed significantly in 2013 and his season was cut short due to injury. His average stuff did not translate with the move up, but perhaps he can come back with a solid performance at low-A ball this year after the injury. His 6.8/1.8 per nine K/BB numbers are good enough if he can maintain the ratio going forward. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016. 52. James Beresford (DOB: 1-19-89), LH middle infielder: Beresford’s drop on this list has less to do with his performance and more to do with the depth of the list and the last two drafts for the Twins. In fact, Beresford performed slightly better with the move up to AA in 2012, raising his OPS 17 points, mostly the result of a bit of increased pop (which is a very welcomed sign). He split time pretty evenly between shortstop and second base and may do the same this year. He is very good defensively. His .266/.330/.314 line is something to build off of for 2013. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2013-2014. 51. Tyler Duffey (DOB: 12-27-90), RH reliever: Duffey dominated Elizabethon in 2012 after the Twins drafted him in the 5th round. He struck out 27 and walked 2 in 19 innings of work. He throws in the low 90s and has a good slider. I would expect him to remain in the bullpen. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016.

This is the first in a series of blog posts breaking down my top 60 Twins prospects. I realized that I had omitted Ryan Pressly and Zach Jones from my initial list, so they will make it into the series now. Overall the system has improved dramatically in the past two years, both at the top and with respect to depth. Honorable Mention: Matthew Koch, Bobby Lanigan, Tyler Grimes HM: Matthew Koch: After an inconsequential 2011, Koch started out of the gates hot in the first half of his season and then cooled off. He ended with a .253/.349/.421 (.770) line and hit 8 homers in 359 plate appearances. He also struck out 106 times and that was the major cause of his fall in the second half. If he can regain some of that offensive prowess displayed early and cut down on the whiffs, he could rise up the list. He just turned 24, however, so the clock is ticking. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-16. HM: Bobby Lanigan: Lanigan is falling off the prospect map and 2013 might be his last chance to turn his career around. In 225+ inning in AA, he has a 4.51 ERA and 5.8/2.2 per nine K/BB rate. AAA was significantly worse for him in 2012. He’ll be 26 in May. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: never or 2013-2014. HM: Tyler Grimes: Grimes was successful in his first partial year in professional baseball in 2011, but repeating Beloit in 2012 got him nowhere. In 222 more plate appearances, his OPS dropped 69 points. His defense at shortstop also went south in 2012 so he might be moving to 2B or 3B, which could help his chances if he can start hitting again and he has a bit of time (turns 23 in July). Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016. 60. Logan Darnell (DOB: 2-2-89), LH starter: Darnell struggled at New Britain in 2012, posting a 5.08 in 156 innings with a 5.7/2.7 per nine K/BB rate. His fastball tops out in the low 90s and he has a decent changeup. He very well could end up moving to the bullpen, but for now will likely stick as a starter for 2013. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: never or 2014-2015. 59. Tyler Jones (DOB: 9-5-89), RH starter: Jones had a fairly impressive 2012 year at Beloit. He gives up too many hits and walks too many (1.442 WHIP), but struck out 102 in 86+ innings. His fastball tops out in the mid 90s and he will need to work on his secondary pitches (slider, changeup) to improve. He is someone I may consider as a 2013 breakout candidate and he could move up this prospect list very quickly. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016. 58. Romy Jimenez (DOB: 5-14-91), RH outfielder: After spending the vast majority of his time in the organization in the DSL, Jimenez burst on the scene in 2012 in Elizabethon. In 139 plate appearances he posted a 1.108 OPS, with 12 doubles, 8 homers, and 19 walks (vs. 25 strikeouts). The outfield depth chart is obviously crowded in the organization, but Jimenez could hold his own in his first full season. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2016-2017. 57. Pedro Hernandez (DOB: 4-12-89), LH starter: Hernandez came over in the Francisco Liriano trade and has a bit of promise. I am potentially undervaluing him, but the falling K rate 10.2, 8.4, 8.3, 7.0, 6.5, 6.0 at each successive level in the minors worries me. That said, he does not walk many hitters and has solid command of multiple pitches (fastball, sinker, changeup). Might be the left-handed version of Liam Hendriks. His fastball hits the low 90s, so command is going to be vital for the lefty going forward and his stock may rise dramatically by mid-season. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: 2013-2014. 56. Taylor Rogers (DOB: 12-17-90), LH starter/reliever: Drafted in the 11th round in 2012, Rogers pitched at two levels, finishing well in Beloit. Splitting time as a starter and reliever, he pitched 33+ innings, striking out 35 and walking 12. With a high 80s-low 90s fastball, his secondary pitches (curveball, changeup) are going to need to continue to be effective if he is too remain a starter. A solid pitcher, all-around, he is very unlikely to be a bust. Expected start: Cedar Rapids or Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016. 55. Pat Dean (DOB: 5-25-89), LH starter: Dean uses a low 90s fastball mixed in with good secondary pitches (curveball, changeup) to maintain solid, though not overpowering numbers as a left-handed starter. The strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff but he also keeps the walks pretty low. I am skeptical of continued success as he moves up, but he could wind up (for better or worse) being the left-handed BJ Hermsen. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: Never or 2014-2015. 54. Deolis Guerra (DOB: 4-17-89), RH reliever: Early in 2012 it looked like Guerra’s move to the bullpen was entirely successful and that he might be on a fast track to the Twins bullpen. He dominated at AA but ended the season struggling in Rochester, posting a 4.87 ERA in 57+ innings of work there. The K rate is still impressive and if he can keep the walks low, Guerra should find success in AAA this year. Given that the Twins bullpen could regress with the likes of Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak (and even Casey Fien), we may see Guerra with the Twins at some point this year. Expected start: Rochester: ETA: 2013-2014. 53. Tim Shibuya (DOB: 9-14-89), RH starter: After a successful 2011 in rookie ball, Shibuya regressed significantly in 2013 and his season was cut short due to injury. His average stuff did not translate with the move up, but perhaps he can come back with a solid performance at low-A ball this year after the injury. His 6.8/1.8 per nine K/BB numbers are good enough if he can maintain the ratio going forward. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016. 52. James Beresford (DOB: 1-19-89), LH middle infielder: Beresford’s drop on this list has less to do with his performance and more to do with the depth of the list and the last two drafts for the Twins. In fact, Beresford performed slightly better with the move up to AA in 2012, raising his OPS 17 points, mostly the result of a bit of increased pop (which is a very welcomed sign). He split time pretty evenly between shortstop and second base and may do the same this year. He is very good defensively. His .266/.330/.314 line is something to build off of for 2013. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2013-2014. 51. Tyler Duffey (DOB: 12-27-90), RH reliever: Duffey dominated Elizabethon in 2012 after the Twins drafted him in the 5th round. He struck out 27 and walked 2 in 19 innings of work. He throws in the low 90s and has a good slider. I would expect him to remain in the bullpen. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016.

The Hall of Fame is a joke without players like Bonds and Clemens. Of the bottom three, only Raines should be in.

I wonder why you would do that with Hicks in lineup? Hicks is a better option for that role with his speed. Mauer batting second is a full-fledged monumental achievement for this manager. If Hicks is on the roster, he will be the leadoff hitter and Mauer SHOULD OBVIOUSLY bat second. Absent Hicks and any other signing, I think Jamey Carroll bats first and Mauer second.

That was a good analysis and solid projection of his potential. I will predict right now that Buxton ends up being pretty similar to . . . Devon White. Remember him? I actually really liked him and if Buxton lives up to that it would be very good for the Twins.

Morneau's health this year would be great. Given this, the Twins need to throw some money at Shaun Marcum. A 1-3 solid rotation is a remarkable improvement when put together with a healthy Morneau, a full season of Plouffe, and the improvement of Parmelee over the hodge-podge in RF for the first part of last year. For anyone saying that Parmelee is the future, that is false. Parmelee is a future bench bat (which would be GREAT if the Twins were in that position down the road) given the existence of Miguel Sano. Or failing that Kennys Vargas . . . or Travis Harrison, etc. The return for Morneau in a deadline deal (if the Twins don't seek to contend by not adding Marcum) is much bigger than Parmelee, but all options should be explored (including trading both of them). The point is that 2013 contention is not out of reach with a healthy Morneau and the acquisition of Marcum.

Haha. No kidding.

You guys are really undervaluing his defensive performance this year. Overall he was good defensively, and that included his time at shortstop. I am not sure how anyone actually disputes this. He made essentially ALL of the routine plays and his range was better than expected. Anyway, that he should start at short to begin the season says nothing about him finishing there, or being there midway, or even there in mid-May.

I don't even know why the Twins have Roenieke or Wood in the first place (Boggs/Ramirez and Harden). Butera would be next unless Pressly immediately stinks.

It's not the end of the world if Florimon starts there, but I don't know what they do at the top of the lineup then!? Carroll makes sense even as a leadoff hitter with Mauer behind him. Mastro and Florimon?? There are two legitimate non-Mauer leadoff contenders in my view: Jamey Carroll and Aaron Hicks. With regard to Slama. They are extending an invite to ST for him this year and they didn't last year. They have got to take him seriously.

This is really not the list that the Twins actually have. I wouldn't worry about Roberts right now. He will end the season at AA, hopefully with 50/50 split or more (in AA). I would indeed trade Buxton for someone else's Arcia, by the way. That might not be true in all cases, but certainly with Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson, etc. in the organization already. I like guys who have advanced further in the system and have been pretty dominant. Buxton has yet to be dominant at rookie ball. 2013 could change all of that, certainly.

Jim: Check out Carroll's defensive statistics from last year. At third, second, and short he was above average. It is a fair point to make that there is no way he will be as good next year as last year, true. But he is solid at the position and has surprising range. Florimon would make plays that Carroll could not . . . but the opposite is true as well. Riverbrian: Colabello appears to have been fairly bad at 3B. That is why I labelled him an emergency 3B in the case of Plouffe and Carroll somehow being out in-game at some point. It's probably similar to how Mastroianni would technically be an emergency second baseman as well. That's still worth having. My reason for wanting him on the roster is that I really don't see anyone else currently in the organization who is going to provide a bench bat as potentially good as is, and he is certainly peaking right now in his prime. It isn't as though he needs seasoning in AAA. It is also a great story, but having a RH bat on the bench would be nice for a change. Lee: yeah, I understand that the Twins likely won't agree with me. I honestly do think that this is their mistake (haha!). That said, I see no way in hell that they will not have a backup OF for Mastroianni and everybody else. Boggs is most likely the guy, but Ramirez would be my pick. It doesn't really matter as long as it is one of them. Hicks and Arcia in June if they are doing well in AAA. No, zero, none, zilch, etc. reason not to do that. That is why I like guys already here to be the placeholder instead of signing another player. Eventually I would also hope that the pitching staff drops to 11 pitchers to add one more player. I am fairly certain that it will be Butera over Herrmann. I see no reason to do that though. Of course I also would have promoted Herrmann to AAA by July last year. If they are waiting on "seasoning" in AAA for him . . . how dumb. He is not likely to be any kind of star and maybe not even a regular on a good team. But that doesn't mean that Drew Butera should be on the roster instead. Herrmann is a legitimate *batter* if not a *hitter* necessarily. And he might be able to be a super utility man if given the proper attention. Like an NBA role-player . . . Benson was hurt last year and the team certainly put pressure on him with that 2011 September callup without any time at AAA (DUMB). He needs to be at AAA and be playing every day. I don't think Pelfrey can even be ready. Wasn't his surgery in May? To be ready by April, he's got to be getting ready in February and March. I don't think it would be wise to push him. There is absolutely no reason to do so. Let him come back a bit later to protect against further injury.

There is strangely now much more uncertainty about the 2013 roster than there was for 2012. A little over a month ago it seemed like things were clear-cut. There was a 50/50 chance that Span would be traded, but otherwise it looked like much of the 25-man roster was pretty clear. In the past few weeks, the Twins have traded Span (for prospect Alex Meyer), traded Ben Revere for Vance Worley (and prospect Trevor May), signed Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey and Rich Harden, and selected Ryan Pressly in the rule 5 draft. This a four-person shakeup of the roster, but the loss of Span and Revere creates further question marks. There are then three big areas of doubt for the roster, and in rather tragic-comic fashion they are starting pitching, the outfield, and middle infield. Starting rotation Scott Diamond and Vance Worley are clear locks at the top of the rotation. Whether or not they should be at the top of any rotation is another matter, but a charitable view is that one could legitimately hold down the second spot and the other a third spot on a competitive team. We can all wait and see if the Twins add Shaun Marcum to make the front three fully legitimate. After those two, it would seem obvious that Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey are next in line, given that they are making $4.5 and $4 million in 2013, respectively. Since Nick Blackburn is making $5.5 million as well, that might mean that Nick rounds out the rotation. That's an expensive 3-5 part of the rotation given that they would all seem to be 5th or spot starters. Aside from this, Liam Hendriks would seem to be next in line since he is the only prospect totally ready. He struggled mightily in 2012, but he was substantially better in the last two months. He is also someone who is smart about pitching and has good enough stuff to adapt adequately. Then there is the most recent addition, Rich Harden, who is a walking injury and is coming off rotator cuff surgery. If healthy for 100 innings this year, Harden should be pretty valuable. After Harden, it is a mess of pitchers: Cole DeVries, Sam Deduno, and PJ Walters, who all served time with the Twins in 2012. The first two were decent enough as fifth starters, and Walters showed glimpses of that capability as well. Then there is Kyle Gibson, who is going to be facing limited innings. He is very likely going to be limited to the 140-150 range. It doesn't make sense to start the season with him as a starter in that case. The Twins may base their decision around the $14 million given to their fifth starters and start the season with those pitchers at 3-5 in the rotation. Attrition might hit one of them and Hendriks does not return to AAA but rather to the Twins. Attrition could hit two of them and Hendriks and Harden/Deduno/DeVries/Walters are a part of the starting five. What the Twins should not resort to is bringing Brian Duensing or Anthony Swarzak into the rotation. Duensing is very valuable as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen, and Swarzak is bad as a starter and marginally adequate as a long reliever. The Twins may be signing Freddy Garcia in the next few days. Nothing really changes above, except added frustration at wasting money on 5th-starter ceiling pitchers. The Outfield Josh Willingham is the lock in left field barring any sudden trade in the remainder of the offseason. And I think it is a good idea to not trade him yet, as his power numbers shouldn't fall off too much in 2013 and his trade value goes up, especially around the deadline. Darin Mastroianni and Chris Parmelee may round out the starting OF and this means a below-average OF defensively which is a stark contrast from the 2012 team. However, Mastroianni was the 4th OF, and if he starts the Twins would need to add somebody to serve in that bench role. Aaron Hicks is drawing attention as a potential CF instead of Mastroianni and he deserves this attention. He has been ready defensively for MLB for a few years and his bat is developing. He is still young and could obviously use AAA seasoning. Joe Benson would have been an obvious choice for this CF position, but the 2012 season was a debacle for the talented prospect. He dealt with an injury and needs time at Rochester to get it together. An overlooked possibility is for the Twins to start Mastroianni at CF and simply call-up Wilkin Ramirez to be the 4th OF. Ramirez didn't play any CF in 2012, but played there a bit in 2011 and a lot in 2010 when he split time between the minor league AAA Atlanta and Detroit affiliates. This would mean not spending money on a washed-up veteran and rewarding a minor league player who was very successful in 2012. In 396 plate appearances for Rochester last year, Ramirez's line was .276/.316/.451. While he obviously strikes out too much (97) and walks too little (18), he has significant power (15 homers and 18 doubles). He is Darin Mastroianni minus a bit of defensive range and speed, but with more power. Brandon Boggs is another likely possibility as he has experience in all three OF positions and also posted a .767 OPS in AAA last year. He is Wilkin Ramirez with better plate discipline and less power. It would interesting to see if the Twins goes this route and see how Hicks, Benson, and Oswaldo Arcia do in AAA to begin the season, at least until June. Middle Infield The Twins experimented with their middle infield in 2012. Jamey Carroll was above average defensively at short but started the season struggling at the plate. Alexi Casilla was above average at second base, but was bad at the plate and is gone, signing with Baltimore. The Twins then made a series of bad decisions regarding prospect Brian Dozier. They called him up even though he was not successful in limited time at Rochester. He started out of the gates well enough, demonstrating some pop and good fundamentals in the field. But then he crashed. The Twins stuck with him for several weeks after he started to stink for some reason and never bothered to move him over to second base and Carroll back to shortstop. Eventually he was demoted and Pedro Florimon was given a chance at shortstop. The Twins mysteriously didn't bring Dozier back in September. He could have played second base during that time. I think the Twins really should have tried out all possible combinations of middle infield alignment between Florimon, Dozier, Carroll, and Eduardo Escobar. Unfortunately it was almost completely Florimon-Carroll, with Escobar filling in some at second base. Florimon was flashy at shortstop but made a number of errors on routine plays. His bat was also pretty bad, adding to the offensive woes the middle infield went through in 2012. Looking forward to 2013, it would seem like the same four players are going to be in contention, with only three likely to make the roster. Jamey Carroll surprised people with his above average play at SS and I believe he should return to that position. This is also due to the fact that the Twins needs somebody besides Mauer at the top of their lineup to get on base and Carroll had a strong second half of the 2012 season. I would give second base to Dozier who definitely is going to be a better offensive performer than Florimon. If Dozier can improve defensively at an easier position this might also help his performance at the plate. I would have Florimon take over the utility infielder role and keep Escobar at Rochester to try to develop some kind of offense. Odds and Ends Other things I would like to see the Twins do include giving the long relief role to Rule 5 draft pick Ryan Pressly and sending Anthony Swarzak off in some trade for a low-A hard thrower. Swarzak is competent and some teams might consider him as a starter. Pressly is nothing special but he just turned 24 and is over two years younger than Scott Diamond (not to mention three years younger than Swarzak). It isn't as though the Twins are without long relievers from the mess of 5th-6th starters they have right now in the system in case Pressly is terrible. He might be worth the very low risk and may improve for 2014. I also would like the Twins to give up on the Drew Butera era and add Chris Herrmann to the roster. Herrmann is not a great prospect, but rather a good one and that works as a catcher. Furthermore, he can also play the corner outfield positions and would serve as the 5th outfielder. He isn't going to be a starting catcher anyway, so the "playing every day" mantra doesn't really apply. His adequate defense and great plate discipline make him much more deserving of a roster spot than that one other guy. Finally, there is one bench spot left and I would like to see what Chris Colabello can do. There isn't much time to wait and see with him in AAA. I would understand if the Twins went with Escobar to start the season to see Colabello hit in Rochester, but he is getting old, is peaking, and has power. His 2012 performance in AA coupled with his complete dominance of the Mexican Winter League earns him this reward. And . . . it makes for a good story and someone interesting to watch in 2013. The Roster Jamey Carroll, SS (RH) Joe Mauer, C (LH) Josh Willingham, LF (RH) Justin Morneau, 1B (LH) Trevor Plouffe, 3B (RH) Ryan Doumit, DH (SH) Chris Parmelee, RF (LH) Brian Dozier, 2B (RH) Darin Mastroianni, CF (RH) Wilkin Ramirez OF (RH)/Brandon Boggs OF (SH), Pedro Florimon MI (SH), Chris Herrmann C/LF/RF (LH), Chris Colabello​ 1B/emergency 3B (RH) Scott Diamond (LH) Vance Worley (RH) Kevin Correia (RH) Liam Hendriks (RH) Rich Harden (RH)* Ryan Pressly (LR-RH) Tyler Robertson (MR-LH) Anthony Slama (!!!!) (MR-RH) ** Casey Fien (MR-RH) Brian Duensing (MI-LH) Jared Burton (SU-RH) Glen Perkins (LH-CL) * Pelfrey is likely not ready to start the season. Harden could lose to any number of other pitchers, of course. But if he's healthy that is very good. ** It's Slama's time, and Alex Burnett has one option year left. Burnett needs to work on things and should do it in Rochester in high-leverage setup situations. So this concludes a very updated blueprint that is more in touch with reality. The Twins are going to face some trade opportunities and prospects knocking on the door in 2013 so this season is definitely going to be a work-in-progress and the 25-man roster will look very different at the end of the season.

There is strangely now much more uncertainty about the 2013 roster than there was for 2012. A little over a month ago it seemed like things were clear-cut. There was a 50/50 chance that Span would be traded, but otherwise it looked like much of the 25-man roster was pretty clear. In the past few weeks, the Twins have traded Span (for prospect Alex Meyer), traded Ben Revere for Vance Worley (and prospect Trevor May), signed Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey and Rich Harden, and selected Ryan Pressly in the rule 5 draft. This a four-person shakeup of the roster, but the loss of Span and Revere creates further question marks. There are then three big areas of doubt for the roster, and in rather tragic-comic fashion they are starting pitching, the outfield, and middle infield. Starting rotation Scott Diamond and Vance Worley are clear locks at the top of the rotation. Whether or not they should be at the top of any rotation is another matter, but a charitable view is that one could legitimately hold down the second spot and the other a third spot on a competitive team. We can all wait and see if the Twins add Shaun Marcum to make the front three fully legitimate. After those two, it would seem obvious that Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey are next in line, given that they are making $4.5 and $4 million in 2013, respectively. Since Nick Blackburn is making $5.5 million as well, that might mean that Nick rounds out the rotation. That's an expensive 3-5 part of the rotation given that they would all seem to be 5th or spot starters. Aside from this, Liam Hendriks would seem to be next in line since he is the only prospect totally ready. He struggled mightily in 2012, but he was substantially better in the last two months. He is also someone who is smart about pitching and has good enough stuff to adapt adequately. Then there is the most recent addition, Rich Harden, who is a walking injury and is coming off rotator cuff surgery. If healthy for 100 innings this year, Harden should be pretty valuable. After Harden, it is a mess of pitchers: Cole DeVries, Sam Deduno, and PJ Walters, who all served time with the Twins in 2012. The first two were decent enough as fifth starters, and Walters showed glimpses of that capability as well. Then there is Kyle Gibson, who is going to be facing limited innings. He is very likely going to be limited to the 140-150 range. It doesn't make sense to start the season with him as a starter in that case. The Twins may base their decision around the $14 million given to their fifth starters and start the season with those pitchers at 3-5 in the rotation. Attrition might hit one of them and Hendriks does not return to AAA but rather to the Twins. Attrition could hit two of them and Hendriks and Harden/Deduno/DeVries/Walters are a part of the starting five. What the Twins should not resort to is bringing Brian Duensing or Anthony Swarzak into the rotation. Duensing is very valuable as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen, and Swarzak is bad as a starter and marginally adequate as a long reliever. The Twins may be signing Freddy Garcia in the next few days. Nothing really changes above, except added frustration at wasting money on 5th-starter ceiling pitchers. The Outfield Josh Willingham is the lock in left field barring any sudden trade in the remainder of the offseason. And I think it is a good idea to not trade him yet, as his power numbers shouldn't fall off too much in 2013 and his trade value goes up, especially around the deadline. Darin Mastroianni and Chris Parmelee may round out the starting OF and this means a below-average OF defensively which is a stark contrast from the 2012 team. However, Mastroianni was the 4th OF, and if he starts the Twins would need to add somebody to serve in that bench role. Aaron Hicks is drawing attention as a potential CF instead of Mastroianni and he deserves this attention. He has been ready defensively for MLB for a few years and his bat is developing. He is still young and could obviously use AAA seasoning. Joe Benson would have been an obvious choice for this CF position, but the 2012 season was a debacle for the talented prospect. He dealt with an injury and needs time at Rochester to get it together. An overlooked possibility is for the Twins to start Mastroianni at CF and simply call-up Wilkin Ramirez to be the 4th OF. Ramirez didn't play any CF in 2012, but played there a bit in 2011 and a lot in 2010 when he split time between the minor league AAA Atlanta and Detroit affiliates. This would mean not spending money on a washed-up veteran and rewarding a minor league player who was very successful in 2012. In 396 plate appearances for Rochester last year, Ramirez's line was .276/.316/.451. While he obviously strikes out too much (97) and walks too little (18), he has significant power (15 homers and 18 doubles). He is Darin Mastroianni minus a bit of defensive range and speed, but with more power. Brandon Boggs is another likely possibility as he has experience in all three OF positions and also posted a .767 OPS in AAA last year. He is Wilkin Ramirez with better plate discipline and less power. It would interesting to see if the Twins goes this route and see how Hicks, Benson, and Oswaldo Arcia do in AAA to begin the season, at least until June. Middle Infield The Twins experimented with their middle infield in 2012. Jamey Carroll was above average defensively at short but started the season struggling at the plate. Alexi Casilla was above average at second base, but was bad at the plate and is gone, signing with Baltimore. The Twins then made a series of bad decisions regarding prospect Brian Dozier. They called him up even though he was not successful in limited time at Rochester. He started out of the gates well enough, demonstrating some pop and good fundamentals in the field. But then he crashed. The Twins stuck with him for several weeks after he started to stink for some reason and never bothered to move him over to second base and Carroll back to shortstop. Eventually he was demoted and Pedro Florimon was given a chance at shortstop. The Twins mysteriously didn't bring Dozier back in September. He could have played second base during that time. I think the Twins really should have tried out all possible combinations of middle infield alignment between Florimon, Dozier, Carroll, and Eduardo Escobar. Unfortunately it was almost completely Florimon-Carroll, with Escobar filling in some at second base. Florimon was flashy at shortstop but made a number of errors on routine plays. His bat was also pretty bad, adding to the offensive woes the middle infield went through in 2012. Looking forward to 2013, it would seem like the same four players are going to be in contention, with only three likely to make the roster. Jamey Carroll surprised people with his above average play at SS and I believe he should return to that position. This is also due to the fact that the Twins needs somebody besides Mauer at the top of their lineup to get on base and Carroll had a strong second half of the 2012 season. I would give second base to Dozier who definitely is going to be a better offensive performer than Florimon. If Dozier can improve defensively at an easier position this might also help his performance at the plate. I would have Florimon take over the utility infielder role and keep Escobar at Rochester to try to develop some kind of offense. Odds and Ends Other things I would like to see the Twins do include giving the long relief role to Rule 5 draft pick Ryan Pressly and sending Anthony Swarzak off in some trade for a low-A hard thrower. Swarzak is competent and some teams might consider him as a starter. Pressly is nothing special but he just turned 24 and is over two years younger than Scott Diamond (not to mention three years younger than Swarzak). It isn't as though the Twins are without long relievers from the mess of 5th-6th starters they have right now in the system in case Pressly is terrible. He might be worth the very low risk and may improve for 2014. I also would like the Twins to give up on the Drew Butera era and add Chris Herrmann to the roster. Herrmann is not a great prospect, but rather a good one and that works as a catcher. Furthermore, he can also play the corner outfield positions and would serve as the 5th outfielder. He isn't going to be a starting catcher anyway, so the "playing every day" mantra doesn't really apply. His adequate defense and great plate discipline make him much more deserving of a roster spot than that one other guy. Finally, there is one bench spot left and I would like to see what Chris Colabello can do. There isn't much time to wait and see with him in AAA. I would understand if the Twins went with Escobar to start the season to see Colabello hit in Rochester, but he is getting old, is peaking, and has power. His 2012 performance in AA coupled with his complete dominance of the Mexican Winter League earns him this reward. And . . . it makes for a good story and someone interesting to watch in 2013. The Roster Jamey Carroll, SS (RH) Joe Mauer, C (LH) Josh Willingham, LF (RH) Justin Morneau, 1B (LH) Trevor Plouffe, 3B (RH) Ryan Doumit, DH (SH) Chris Parmelee, RF (LH) Brian Dozier, 2B (RH) Darin Mastroianni, CF (RH) Wilkin Ramirez OF (RH)/Brandon Boggs OF (SH), Pedro Florimon MI (SH), Chris Herrmann C/LF/RF (LH), Chris Colabello​ 1B/emergency 3B (RH) Scott Diamond (LH) Vance Worley (RH) Kevin Correia (RH) Liam Hendriks (RH) Rich Harden (RH)* Ryan Pressly (LR-RH) Tyler Robertson (MR-LH) Anthony Slama (!!!!) (MR-RH) ** Casey Fien (MR-RH) Brian Duensing (MI-LH) Jared Burton (SU-RH) Glen Perkins (LH-CL) * Pelfrey is likely not ready to start the season. Harden could lose to any number of other pitchers, of course. But if he's healthy that is very good. ** It's Slama's time, and Alex Burnett has one option year left. Burnett needs to work on things and should do it in Rochester in high-leverage setup situations. So this concludes a very updated blueprint that is more in touch with reality. The Twins are going to face some trade opportunities and prospects knocking on the door in 2013 so this season is definitely going to be a work-in-progress and the 25-man roster will look very different at the end of the season.

I agree and you had me at Arrested Development quoting.

No no. It was gone. Nothing too terrible, but I haven't gotten back around to it. It was a section on the middle infield and I dreaded having to write about that one time, much less twice.

Having something organized like that would be pretty good. Seth's prospect handbook is pretty indispensable.

So RB, is an out an out, or not?

Yeah. I am confused by the speculation. Only immediate career-ending injury threatens it.

Obviously this is good and I wish they would have targeted Harden and others like him to minor league deals and not messed around with Correia and Pelfrey.

Hell it isn't even clear to me that the Twins shouldn't start the season with him as their backup 1B,, RH bench bat, and emergency 3B. He is old--and in his prime right now--as a prospect. The Twins need to load their bench with the top producing players if they want to actually be legit in 2013. My views is that Wilkin Ramirez, Pedro Florimon, Chris Herrmann, and Chris Colabello should make up the bench at the start of the season. Seems so obvious to me.