Shane Wahl

This is the third segment in my prospect list breakdown. These ten have good-to-great upside in most cases and essentially all of them are facing crucial seasons in their development, for various reasons. 40. Angel Morales (DOB: 11-24-89), RH outfielder: After the 2010 season, I placed Morales at number 5 on my prospect list. That was a bit high for him, but he certainly made the vast majority of top 10 lists. Morales spent half of 2010 in Fort Myers and has been there ever since, battling injury in 2011 and struggling 420 plate appearances to manage a .220/.310/.328 line. He is clearly stuck in a rut, but the talent is still present and he is only 23. A move up to New Britain could mean a make or break season. Aaron Hicks benefitted from the move to New Britain as did Oswaldo Arcia. Morales is very athletic and his defense is very good with a great arm. This is about the age that Hicks and Benson took off, so hopefully the same can be said for Morales after 2013. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2015 or 2016. 39. Manuel Soliman (DOB: 8-11-89), RH starter/reliever: Solimon was a top prospect going into the 2012 season but was sidelined with injury and had surgery to repair a torn labrum in June. He will come back slowly this year and should be ready by June. He throws in the low 90s and has a sinker as well. If the injury takes a few ticks away, he might be moved to the bullpen. That was the likely future for him anyway, but he could be very good in that role. Like Morales, 2013 is going to be a huge year for Soliman to return to form and move up this list. Expected start: Fort Myers DL. ETA: never or 2015-2016. 38. D.J. Baxendale (DOB: 12-8-90), RH reliever/starter: Baxendale doesn’t really throw hard, but still struck out 31 batters in 18+ innings between Elizabethon and Beloit. He was selected in the 10th round of the 2012 draft and I would consider him a borderline case between the rotation and the bullpen. The Twins might want to see him as a starter, so that could be in the works for 2013. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016. 37. Matthew Summers (DOB: 8-17-89), LH starter: Summers is a guy that I thought would be shooting up this list, but he is in danger of dropping off if he doesn’t turn it around in 2013. Fresh out of college in 2011, he dominated Elizabethon. This year the K rate plummeted to 5.9, while he walked to many batters (especially in limited time at Fort Myers). He can throw hard, but that didn’t translate to strikeouts last season. He did throw almost 150 innings, so that is a good sign for 2013. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is in the bullpen by 2014. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016. 36. Madison Boer (DOB: 11-9-89), RH starter/reliever: Boer is another pitcher who dominated in Elizabethon in 2011 and then had a problematic season across both levels of A ball in 2012. Boer can hit the mid 90s with his fastball, but the strikeouts are not coming. His 5.4/2.6 per nine K/BB rate in 111 innings at Fort Myers is cause for concern. He also gave up 147 hits there. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016. 35. J.T. Chargois (DOB: 12-3-90), RH reliever: Chargois was great at Elizabethon, which doesn’t mean a whole lot for college pitchers. He has a mid 90s fastball and a good slider, however, and could be a fast-rising pitcher. Hopefully his 2013 season doesn’t lead me to saying the same thing about Chargois as I did about Boer and Summers. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016. 34. Angel Mata (DOB: 12-3-92), RH starter: Mata followed up an impressive 2011 with a solid 2012 at Elizabethon. He has control issues, but is young and strikes people out as well. He threw only 53+ innings, so one has to wonder about the number he will be limited to in 2013. While walking too many, he has managed to give up a very low number of hits the past two years (54 in over 90 innings) which says a lot about his stuff. That makeup reminds me a bit of Anthony Slama, but I will leave that alone for now. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017. 33. Michael Tonkin (DOB: 11-19-89), RH reliever: Tonkin finished the year in the Arizona Fall League and was fantastic prior to his last appearance when he gave up three earned runs in an inning. Tonkin between Beloit and Fort Myers struck out 97 batters in 69+ innings, with the K rate actually rising after his promotion to Fort Myers. He had a breakout year in 2012 and should be moving quickly up as the Twins clearly liked what they saw this year with him. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015. 32. Danny Ortiz (DOB: 1-5-90), LH outfielder: Ortiz has flown under the radar amidst the massive amount of outfield talent in the Twins system, but he has been consistently solid each year and can play all three outfield positions. This might project him into 4th OF status as the offensive output is definitely not overwhelming (career .732 OPS). That said, he has displayed doubles power each year and has kept his strikeouts fairly low. He could have a breakout season in 2013 in New Britain if the Twins are smart enough to start him there. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: September 2014-September 2015. 31. Luke Bard (DOB: 11-13-90), RH reliever/starter: A lot, in my view, will depend on whether the Twins make use of Bard as a starter or reliever. The 42nd overall pick in the draft has very good stuff with a mid 90s fastball and a fantastic slider. His stat record is so small that isn’t really worth mentioning as seven innings tells one nothing. As a starter, Bard could amount to a mid-rotation contributor. As a reliever, he could end up being a setup or closer type after the Glen Perkins era. Only time will tell. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017.

Calm down. It was a part of their greatest games series. It was number 2.

Game 7 (obviously) talk. It looks like they are going inning by inning.

Any guesses on who the pitcher (and his sinker) under scrutiny was? B-Webb???????

Anyway, great article Parker. That provides insight into the vast statistical machine that is the Minnesota Twins! They can't even have multiple INTERNS involved here!?

Kevin Correia. Who the hell is responsible for that?

Very good interview. I really am pulling for him this year.

Williams is not going to be a closer. Anyway, I am basing it on Achter's dominant statistics this year, including at Fort Myers.

Is there any value in giving some time (100 PAs even) to players at a level like Fort Myers even when you know you are going to promote than to AA anyway? That is, is there something to be learned there of value in some kind of incremental way before jumping to AA? This is specifically related to Roberts, but might apply in some other cases as well.

Adding in Clete Thomas to the projected lineup for Rochester would have induced vomiting as I typed it, you know that! I understand certain possibilities surrounding Hicks, but in case they want to give him some AAA time (probably should) that would mean that Ramirez or Boggs will be with the Twins and I would just put the other 6th in the lineup for Rochester, though Boggs makes sense as a leadoff hitter. Escobar would be my choice to lose out and join Rochester and he sure as hell isn't anything but a 9 hitter, even in AAA. Arcia in AA seems just silly to me, but there have been enough discussions around here about AA vs. AAA. I can see Roberts joining the New Britain team, but I kinda just wanted to post that Fort Myers lineup as is. Between it and Cedar Rapids that looks like 10 of the top 25 or so prospects right there. Buxton in EST makes sense, though he did so well after promotion to Elizabethon last year. Maybe JD Williams can hold it down for him for the time being.

They very well might and it isn't the worst idea to get him some plate appearances there before promoting him. He should be in New Britain quickly and who knows where he ends the season.

A relatively likely scenario that is exciting with a slight drop at New Britain until some people get promoted: Rochester: Aaron Hicks Chris Herrmann Joe Benson Oswaldo Arcia Chris Colabello New Britain: Danny Santana Angel Morales Danny Ortiz Josmil Pinto Lance Ray Fort Myers: Nate Roberts Levi Michael Miguel Sano Eddie Rosario Kennys Vargas Cedar Rapids: Byron Buxton Jorge Polanco Max Kepler Adam Walker Travis Harrison

I think of prospects being eligible as prospects if they haven't reached the majors or have spent less than 1/3 of a season there. I also wanted to put him somewhere on the list for comparison's sake.

Forgot about Kepler.

Have you logged the hours you have spent on this? It's my favorite thing here (aside from Torii is a homophobe threads, of course).

Pretty good. I think Parmelee will be replaced by Sano at first base and someone else will be the third baseman. Perhaps Niko Goodrum moves over there or it will still be Plouffe or some smart trade will bring someone else in. What I do love is that absent a potential hole at third, I could comfortably fill out a 25-man roster for that WS team from players in the organization right now (Beresford, Santana, Herrmann, Benson, Roberts, Pinto as other possible position players).

No one AT ALL said anything about limiting First Amendment speech rights. Go straw-man people somewhere else.

Yeah, that seems right. Clearly that is correct about the number 3 hitter, hence the benefit of having a power hitter there. I have to imagine that a lot of Mauer's RISP RBI came with Span and Revere 1-2 during Revere's hot streak in the middle of the season. Span and Revere around that time were both .350+ OBP, I believe. It doesn't look possible to replicate that this year, so Mauer has to be one of the top two. I can't see how Mastroianni's .325-.330 OBP is good enough at the top. I don't see any candidates other than Hicks and Carroll.

Yeah there is no disagreement with this.

A general rule might be quite simple: stack the order based on OBP alone. I would like to see some team experiment with that.

Why wouldn't you want that person batting 4th? I have to wonder who more likely comes up with RISP, the 3rd or 4th hitter. I believe I read somewhere that it was the 4th hitter. (Consider Mauer vs. Willingham's RBI chances in 2012).

Thanks for posting this. Hopefully this is a more accurate representation of Hunter's views on the matter.

It isn't the expression of the view that is the problem. It's the view.

Saying the "right to have that opinion" generally ends the discussion as though all opinions are equally true. They are not. The attitude that they are is, indeed, garbage.