Shane Wahl

I don't know why they would spend $5 million or whatever on Pelfrey, even now. It's a joke to sign that guy. Deduno, Gibson, and Diamond can compete for 4 and 5 in the rotation (Diamond loses and becomes the LR guy). Then think of the $5 million saved on Pelfrey as money towards improvements during the year in case of a serious problem (like a bullpen meltdown . . . if Burton and Fien start to suck . . . that's an issue, and maybe the money saved can be used there . . . or an injury to Dozier or Florimon, etc. etc.).

Speed guys do not age well offensively. Anyway, Ellsbury is definitely worth a lot of money, but I would really like to see the second best offer to him. 6/100 seems on target. This is really out there.

Haha! JM was "blood in the streets in the town of . . . "

I was just warming up to A.J. again, Seth, and you successfully ruined it. I actually thank you for that.

Yeah I liked Grimes heading into 2012 and then . . . that happened. I will be interested in seeing how he does there this year.

Meyer was a ridiculous return for Span, though. I understand the comparison, but that was a ridiculous trade. Fister is turning 30, correct? Ray and Krol are 22ish and Lombo is 25. The Tigers might see trading Fister for the future while signing another pitcher to replace Fister for 2014.

It was just to give a reference point in terms of the prospect list. I am not sure what the big deal is. This isn't in a vacuum and Ray is good. Not everyone can be traded for elite to great prospects.

I would put Ray above Trevor May, easily.

Robbie Ray is very good, so what the hell is everyone talking about? They got two other guys to fill out their roster. I am not sure why this is so bad for Detroit. Ray should be up in 2015 at the latest and in the meantime the Tigers can pursue a pitcher.

It would be a mistake for Gibson to be in AAA.

Good article. I think it is clear that the Twins are getting their stats in order. I refuse to read the comments at the ST, but I can't imagine the general average fan being at all excited about Hughes given the W/L an ERA. Same to a lesser extent about Nolasco. There are some out there who think these moves are simply about "fan pressure" but that is not the case given that most fans are going to not see the potential in these moves.

I am very glad about this. I have come around to AJ (for one year only, though, and the booth is calling him, so he might take it . . . ). Salty for two or AJ for one. But I am very glad Navarro can no longer be an option.

See I wish more people would go in depth like this, because here we get more guys off other people's lists to talk about. Logan, Grimes, and Larson are interesting guys to follow this coming season.

Terry Ryan's wrongness about last year involved Vance Worley, Scott Diamond, Mike Pelfrey, and Liam Hendriks being suitable to fill in around Correia. Worley is just a puzzle. I mean . . . that bad, dude? Really? It's feasible to think TR thought Correia was the third best starter going into last season. Now it is clear that he likely is, so that's an improvement. Anything that moves Correia down to being the fifth starter is good. That said, a good season from him and he becomes a great bit of trade bait for a B- prospect at the deadline.

Correia definitely outperformed his value and proved me and others wrong. What bothered me mostly at the time was the second year at $5.5 million if the first year was terrible. Now, however, having Correia at that price for one year with the likes of Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, and eventually Meyer is likely to be a great value even if his performance slips a bit.

I would like Plouffe batting behind Mauer against lefties. I would like to see Swarzak be a 7th inning middle reliever who may be able to dial it up more for the K. I would have expected Achter to maybe fill that role. It isn't clear to me that Burton and Fien are going to be able to maintain. Duensing has good value as a lefty specialist and this can be maximized by trade deadline time.

I would be pleased with merely trading Doumit and Willingham for C+ prospects and being aggressive with prospects in general.

Having both Presley and Mastroianni just seems silly. Having Kris Johnson now really seems strange. If there's any way to remove Fryer, that is beyond the obvious move.

Eric Fryer has no business being on the 40-man roster. Then Mastro, Johnson, Colabello, and Albers.

This is a good, brief analysis: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/breaking-down-the-twins-ricky-nolasco-signing.html "The important questions for the Twins are why Nolasco's ERA has been consistently higher than his strikeout, walk, and home run rates suggest, and if that will remain the case over most of the next four years. From 2009-13, the typical NL starter has stranded around 72% of his baserunners. Nolasco's strand rate in that time is a bit shy of 68%, worst in MLB among those with at least 700 innings. Perhaps that's unfair, as it's roping in some really low strand rates from 2009 and '11. If we look at just 2012-13, Nolasco is at 70.1%, 16th worst in MLB among those with 300 innings. Nolasco has a 4.08 ERA in that time, versus a 3.60 FIP. A metric that treats Nolasco as a 3.60 ERA pitcher is overstating his value. Nolasco's strand rate problems stem from his performance with men on base. His strikeout rate falls below six per nine innings and his walks jump up to around three, even in his successful 2013 campaign. If the Twins don't find a way to address this, they might have a 4.50 ERA pitcher on their hands from the start. FanGraphs has another version of WAR called RA9-WAR, which essentially uses a pitcher's actual runs allowed instead of his FIP. That metric suggests Nolasco was a two-win pitcher in 2013, his best season in years. If Nolasco begins at two wins, this contract is not good value even if a win on the 2013-14 free agent market costs $6.2MM. I'm not comfortable valuing a pitcher based on ERA or FIP, however. The valuation changes drastically if we split the difference and project Nolasco as a 2.5 win pitcher in 2014. In that case, I think this can be an even money deal, though I don't have a lot of confidence in predicting the annual inflation of the free agent market."

I am curious about the Winter Meetings, so I am waiting until at least then to make a prediction.

Haha, well he does make me think of the college version of Hudson Boyd. Well, the thin, college version of Boyd.

This is pretty indisputably true.

40-man decision should just clearly be removing Eric Fryer. Then Johnson. Then Mastroianni. Trading Burton and Fien would be ideal, but probably hard to do in the offseason.

Thanks, Thrylos. I periodically correct myself, but then I revert back to A-. Maybe they should just standardize . . .