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Shane Wahl

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Blog Entries posted by Shane Wahl

  1. Shane Wahl

    2017 roster

    By Shane Wahl,

    I love the non-insane idea of a lineup that looks like this:
     
    Buxton
    Mauer
    Dozier
    Kepler
    Sano
    Vargas
    Polanco
    Rosario
    Garver/Murphy
     
    Backup catcher, Escobar, Park, and Palka/Walker on the bench.
     
    Santana
    May
    Berrios
    Gibson
    Santiago
     
    Pressly
    O'Rourke
    Hughes
    Tonkin
    Rogers
    Duffey
    X
     
    I am really not sure about the bullpen. Perkins might be done. Kintzler cannot be trusted. May has said for two years that the bullpen role creates injury problems.
  2. Shane Wahl
    Top 60 Twins Prospects 2016:
     
    1. Jose Berrios
    2. Max Kepler
    3. Nick Gordon
    4. Jorge Polanco
    5. Tyler Jay
    6. Stephen Gonsalves
    7. Nick Burdi
    8. Lewis Thorpe
    9. Kohl Stewart
    10. Adam Brett Walker
    11. J.T. Chargois
    12. Felix Jorge
    13. Engelb Vielma
    14. Taylor Rogers
    15. Alex Meyer
    16. Brandon Peterson
    17. Wander Javier
    18. Jermaine Palacios
    19. Jake Reed
    20. LaMonte Wade
    21. Tanner English
    22. Lewin Diaz
    23. Daniel Palka
    24. Yorman Landa
    25. Fernando Romero
    26. Randy Rosario
    27. Amaryus Minier
    28. Travis Blankenhorn
    29. Aaron Slegers
    30. Niko Goodrum
    31. Travis Harrison
    32. Mason Melotakis
    33. Stuart Turner
    34. Mitch Garver
    35. Brian Navarreto
    36. Trey Cabbage
    37. Trevor Hildenberger
    38. Lachlan Wells
    39. Rainis Silva
    40. Huascar Ynoa
    41. Kuo Hua Lo
    42. Chris Paul
    43. Corey Williams
    44. Kolton Kendrick
    45. Zach Granite
    46. Jorge Fernandez
    47. Sam Gibbons
    48. Logan Darnell
    49. D.J. Baxendale
    50. Luke Bard
    51. Michael Cederoth
    52. Ryan Eades
    53. Dereck Rodriguez
    54. Rafael Valera
    55. Luis Arraez
    56. Luke Westphal
    57. D.J. Hicks
    58. Jason Wheeler
    59. James Beresford
    60. Alex Wimmers
  3. Shane Wahl
    The Twins' four-game sweep of the Orioles has kept them very much alive in the 2015 wild card chase. On Tuesday, they start a big three-game series with another contender in the Tampa Bay Rays. A series win would put two games between the Twins and Rays and keep the Twins within a couple games, at worst, of the final wild card spot.
     
    This comes after a big fall in the first three weeks of August. It honestly looked like Terry Ryan had just given up on the 2015 season. There are some things to note that are positive going forward however.
     
    1. Miguel Sano is very good.
    2. Byron Buxton is up with the Twins and he should start to come around (though a move to the bottom of the order would seem justified).
    3. Aaron Hicks will be back soon. This will mean a full starting lineup for the *first time all season.*
    4. Kennys Vargas looks like a key roster piece to be added soon.
    5. The bullpen--which was becoming a full-blown disaster--could re-emerge with some new faces and the return to form of older reliables. There are six guys involved here. Glen Perkins and Casey Fien returning to their "true" selves is one part. Trevor May's dominance in his 2015 role as a setup man is another. Kevin Jepsen being a Casey Fein clone/RH specialist is another. Finally, the proper use of Ryan O'Rourke and newly acquired Neal Cotts against lefties is the last piece. I don't care about JR Graham or Brian Duensing. Hopefully, both of them will "get injured" for the playoffs.
    6. Three out of five starters pitching well in any five-game stretch isn't bad. We won't know who they are going to be ahead of time, but they can get this done.
     
    There are remaining things to question: Are the Twins going to commit to 11 pitchers in the playoffs instead of 12? Will Josmil Pinto return to get some at bats this September? What about Danny Santana? Will we get to see Max Kepler and/or Jose Berrios?
     
    It's been a sudden roller coaster ride, but the Twins have a chance to right this ship. The Yankees, Rangers, and Angels are in the way, and the Twins will need to pass two of them, but it can happen, obviously. Odds are that one of those three is going to falter anyway (my money is on the Rangers there). I still have hope for the playoffs this year.
  4. Shane Wahl
    The Twins system is entering a new era as the youth movement is now officially underway. Players like May and Rosario have graduated already. Some players like Sano and Buxton will be leaving this list due to graduation in the coming months. It is important to get a glimpse of the state of the system going forward as the Twins are now entering a time of contention (and hopefully victory) over the next few years. The system is still rich, but clearly there are areas of concern already present.
     
    This is the final installment of my mid-season prospect update. Late September will bring the final list for the year.
     
    1. Byron Buxton: CF, 12-18-93
    2015 status: Buxton is basically done with minor league baseball. He got injured again, but should be back with the Twins in September. ETA: already arrived.
     
    2. Miguel Sano: 3B, 5-3-93
    2015 status: Has obliterated the baseball after his promotion to the Twins. He is also done with minor league baseball. Sano will be used as the DH primarily for the rest of this year, but the Twins should be shopping Trevor Plouffe in the offseason. ETA: already arrived.
     
    3. Jose Berrios: RHS, 5-27-94
    2015 status: Strong improvement over 2014 AA numbers. Promoted to AAA. ETA: essentially MLB ready now.
     
    4. Jorge Polanco: SS/2B, 7-5-93
    2015 status: Promoted to the Twins for one game and then moved to Rochester from Chattanooga. His bat is ready, not he just needs to get his SS defense up to acceptable standards. ETA: 2015.
     
    5. Max Kepler: OF/1B, 2-10-93
    2015 status: In the midst of a breakout season that is really pushing the envelope for the Twins. I would like to see a move up to AAA and then a September call up. Outstanding to see Kepler develop in this way this year. Could be trade bait. ETA: September 2015, or 2016 after Twins roster shakeup in offseason.
     
    6. Nick Gordon: SS, 10-24-95
    2015 status: The youngster struggled offensively initially at Cedar Rapids, but is really hitting his stride. Defense is great. ETA: 2019.
     
    7. Tyler Jay: LHR, 4-19-94
    2015 status: Sent to Fort Myers to the bullpen, likely for the remainder of 2015. Starting ability in question. ETA: 2017.
     
    8. Stephen Gonsalves: LHS, 7-8-94
    2015 status: Totally dominated A ball, hitting a learning curve in A+ ball, but it should only be a matter of time. Perhaps A+/AA split in 2016. ETA: 2018
     
    9. Adam Walker: RF, 10-18-91
    2015 status: He is having a great season. Homers and strikeouts abound, but he is also hitting a bit better overall and has an .899 OPS. Also trade bait. ETA: September 2015 for some fun homers, or else 2016 after some AAA time.
     
    10. Amaurys Minier: OF/1B, 1-30-96
    2015 status: Getting moved to Elizabethon will be a bit of a challenge initially, but he should be fine. He could have a monster season. ETA: 2020.
     
    11. Alex Meyer: RHS, 1-3-90
    2015 status: Struggled in AAA as a starter, converted to reliever temporarily, promoted to Twins as such, optioned back to AAA. Maybe he works on a few things and is back relieving for a playoff Twins team. Otherwise, they have to move him back to try starting one more time. ETA: should be back in 2015.
     
    12. Taylor Rogers: LHS, 12-17-90
    2015 status: Strong AAA time, replicating his AA numbers from 2014. I would like to see a playoff push involving Rogers as a lights out LOOGY. ETA: 2015 as a reliever, 2016 as a starter.
     
    13. Chih-Wei Hu: RHS, 11-4-93
    2015 status: Hu has finally given up some home runs, but that is about all that has changed from his excellent production in 2013 and 2014. He is an 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 kind of guy. It will be interesting to see how they manage his innings for the rest of the season, since I doubt that he is going to be top 110 innings or so and he is at 66.2 right now. ETA: 2017.
     
    14. Kohl Stewart: RHS, 10-7-94
    2015 status: A mediocre strikeout rate has actually fallen sharply in 2015. There is a lot of hand-waving about it as though it doesn't matter, but I think some caution is warranted here. Clearly, Stewart will be in Fort Myers again in 2016. ETA: 2018.
     
    15. Tyler Duffey: RHS, 12-27-90
    2015 status: Like Hu, Duffey is producing at his current level with very similar numbers as his overall minor league career numbers, and that is telling. He has been excellent this year, and I almost placed him ahead of Stewart. ETA: 2016.
     
    16. Lewin Diaz: 1B, 11-19-96
    2015 status: Getting used to playing in the States. Born on the day I got my driver's license. Taking it slow, obviously, but Diaz is about as fun as any prospect to watch in anticipation for the rest of the year. ETA: 2021.
     
    17. Lewis Thorpe: LHS, 11-23-95
    2015 status: The Twins and Thorpe decided to not have Tommy John surgery last September and this amounted to long delay of the inevitable,as Thorpe's April surgery will mean that he is out until at least mid-season 2016. He will only be about 20 and a half when he returns in 2016 (I would assume GCL/Fort Myers) so his status is still top-10 worthy. ETA: 2019 with level/year development.
     
    18. Brandon Peterson: RHR, 9-23-91
    2015 status: Peterson did not get the attention that Nick Burdi and Jake Reed did after last season. Then the Twins kept him down in Fort Myers for some inexplicable reason. Now, he is up in Chattanooga and he has not missed a beat at all. The 13 K/9 coupled with an acceptable 3.3 BB/9 makes him an elite reliever prospect. ETA: 2016.
     
    19. Wandy Javier: SS, 12-29-98
    2015 status: Just signed by the Twins to a $4 million bonus, the SS could top this list within two years. Looks like a good all-around player, both offensively and defensively. ETA: 2022.
     
    20. Travis Harrison: LF/RF, 10-17-92
    2015 status: Harrison is a good all-around hitter, who is fully in the OF this year. The power still has not come, however, and this is going to force him down the list. Harrison is definitely someone the Twins should try to shop in some package in the offseason, or if they really want to trade for a bullpen arm for the stretch run in 2015. ETA: September 2016.
     
    21. Zach Jones: RHR, 12-4-90
    2015 status: Jones was dominant until his last two appearances and was sent to Fort Myers. When he gets healthy, the Twins should consider promoting him to AAA. ETA: 2015 or 2016.
     
    22. Nick Burdi: RHR, 1-19-93
    2015 status: Things started poorly, got significantly better for a little bit, then went so poorly that the Twins actually just demoted Burdi back to Fort Myers, in a move that is rather perplexing, even with his bad performance. His mechanics have been altered significantly, and this might be the problem. ETA: 2017.
     
    23. Levi Michael: 2B, 2-9-91
    2015 status: Michael has battled an injury again this season. When actually healthy, he is good. He has an .807 OPS for Chattanooga this year and is back to stealing bases. He is slugging substantially more this year, which is interesting. Given everyone above him, Michael is in Harrison's camp as trade material. ETA: September 2016.
     
    24. Travis Blankenhorn: 3B, 8-3-96
    2015 status: Drafted in the third round, the Twins sent Blankenhorn to the GCL. Nice pick, good bat. ETA: 2020.
     
    25. Jake Reed: RHR, 9-29-92
    2015 status: Like Burdi, the stock is falling here for Jake Reed. He has struggled in AA and should remain there well into next season. ETA: 2016 only if all goes well.
     
    26. Niko Goodrum: SS/3B/CF, 2-28-92
    2015 status: Promoted to Chattanooga after an OK start in Fort Myers. He always threatens to push that OPS over .700 . . . time will tell. Great speed. Adding CF to his resume is interesting. Good end up being a more athletic and bigger version of Eduardo Escobar. Still relatively young. ETA: September 2016.
     
    27. Felix Jorge: RHS, 1-2-94
    2015 status: He's back and pitching very well. The strikeout rate has dropped, but so has the walk rate. He is also not giving up very many hits. I think he likely moves to A+ when the Twins move Hu to AA. ETA: 2018.
     
    28. Dalton Hicks: 1B, 4-2-90
    2015 status: Hicks was smashing the ball in Chattanooga before getting injured. He has been up and down my lists over the past few years now. ETA: September 2016.
     
    29. JT Chargois: RHR, 12-3-90
    2015 status: Chargois is back after not pitching in 2013 or 2014. He is doing very well, though his control is an issue. It was rather shocking how he dominated A+ ball though, and he is up to AA. ETA: 2016 if he remains healthy.
     
    30. Alex Robinson: LHR, 8-11-94
    2015 status: After being drafted in the fifth round, he headed off to the Elizabethon bullpen. ETA: 2019.
     
    31. Michael Cederoth: RHP, 11-25-92.
    2015 status: He has struggled a bit in A ball this year, walking a lot of guys as a starter. He moved to the bullpen and has been excellent. I imagine he stays there. ETA: 2018.
     
    32. Mat Batts: LHS, 7-6-91
    2015 status: After a very strong start to the 2015 season in Cedar Rapids, Batts was promoted to Fort Myers where he continues to be fantastic. ETA: 2018.
     
    33. Tanner English: CF, 3-11-93
    2015 status: Has hit a bit of a snag with his first full season, but the steals and defense are intriguing enough. He also draws a good amount of walks. Only grounded into one double play all year, which is crazy. ETA: 2018.
     
    34. Cameron Booser: LHR, 5-4-92
    2015 status: Strong for Cedar Rapids, but he is walking an awful lot of guys. He strikes out a ton too, though. ETA: 2018.
     
    35. Trevor Hildenberger: RHR, 12-15-90
    2015 status: Hildenberger has been out of control dominant for Cedar Rapids. It isn't clear why he is not in Fort Myers by now. ETA: 2017, if the Twins are at all serious about him.
     
    36. Aaron Slegers: RHS, 9-4-92
    2015 status: Slegers is a solid starting pitching prospect who might continue to climb the prospect rankings, but shouldn't fall far. Very good K/BB rate. ETA: 2018.
     
    37. Engelb Vielma: SS, 6-22-94
    2015 status: Slow to develop bat at Fort Myers, but that should be expected. He is inching toward similar offensive numbers in 2015 as he had in Cedar Rapids in 2014, but the stolen bases have exploded. ETA: 2017 if the Twins want a defensive shortstop, otherwise 2018.
     
    38. Stuart Turner: C, 12-27-91
    2015 status: As expected, the bat is bad in AA. He is a very good defensive catcher, however. A .566 OPS in AA is a bit scary and the Twins have an immediate hole at the catcher position. ETA: September 2016.
     
    39. John Curtiss: RHS, 4-5-93
    2015 status: I was too high on Curtiss going into the season. He has been hit pretty hard in A ball this year. The strikeouts are still there, but it is going to be a slow ascent in the system. ETA: 2019.
     
    40. Alexis Tapia: RHS, 8-10-95
    2015 status: Very young, but with good strikeout and walk numbers. Could climb fast. ETA 2019.
     
    41. Mitch Garver: C, 1-15-91
    2015 status: Started very slowly offensively, but is now coming around. Would like to see him pushed to AA in August to test his bat a little bit and get him ready for a full season of AA in 2016. ETA: 2017.
     
    42. Danny Ortiz: OF, 1-5-90
    2015 status: Ortiz was hitting really well to start the year in AAA, then cooled off as he was moved to CF. Maybe the two are unrelated, but I think that it is a good thing for Ortiz to add CF to his resume. The Twins should definitely be interested in his 4th OF capability if they are going to be trading some of their OF depth (Kepler, Walker, Harrison). Otherwise, Ortiz is trade bait to add in a package. ETA: would be September 2015 in about any other organization. Here, 2016.
     
    43. James Beresford: 2B/IF, 1-19-89
    2015 status: Beresford is totally consistent. There is basically no steadier a bat in the system. The Twins know how Beresford will produce offensively in the big leagues if they want him there. The issue for him is that he needs to move beyond being a second baseman. His future anywhere is going to be as a utility infielder, much like Ortiz's future is as a 4th OF. ETA: September 2015 wouldn't be totally out of the question if the Twins have 40-man space. Otherwise 2016 somewhere in MLB.
     
    44. Jermaine Palacios: SS/IF, 7-19-96
    2015 status: Palacios is pounding GCL pitching right now after a very solid 2014 season in the DSL. Currently, he is quite slight, measuring six feet tall while being listed at under 150 pounds. He might not outgrow SS, so there is a decent chance that he sticks there. Big sleeper prospect right now. ETA: 2021.
     
    45. Zach Granite: CF/LF, 9-17-92
    2015 status: Granite dominated in Cedar Rapids and was quickly promoted to Fort Myers. He is struggling some there, but should get his 2015 A+ numbers to match his 2014 A numbers. He has very good speed and some decent plate discipline. ETA: 2018.
     
    46. Alex Wimmers: RHS, 11-1-88
    2015 status: It is fantastic that Wimmers has gotten back into the swing of things. That he is starting again and striking people out is a testament to his perseverance. ETA: 2016 if the Twins are aggressive.
     
    47. Randy Rosario: LHS, 5-18-94
    2015 status: Hopefully, a healthy Rosario can get on track and return to showing the promise of his pre-2014 career. ETA: 2019.
     
    48. Rafael Valera: 2B/3B/SS, 8-15-94
    2015 status: Valera is another sleeper prospect. The Twins sent Valera to Cedar Rapids this year after a decent season in the GCL in 2014. Good plate discipline and speed. ETA: 2019.
     
    49. Todd Van Steensel: RHR, 1-14-91
    2015 status: Van Steensel is a strikeout machine for Fort Myers. Undoubtedly, he will finish the year in AA if some of the pitchers in AA and AAA get promotions. ETA: 2016.
     
    50. Ryan O'Rourke: LHR, 4-30-88
    2015 status: O'Rourke has just been promoted to the Twins. He has been hit hard by right-handed hitters this year again, but the strikeout numbers against lefties are astounding. He could make it as a dominant LOOGY. A Twins playoff bullpen with Rogers and O'Rourke would negate left-handed hitters in the late innings. ETA: right now.
     
    Honorable Mention: Luke Bard, Max Murphy, Trey Vavra, DJ Baxendale, Brian Navarreto, Zach Larson, Trey Cabbage, Tyler Kuresa, Yorman Landa, Ryan Eades, Kuo-Hua Lo, Mason Melotakis, Corey Williams, Alex Muren, Fernando Romero, LaMonte Wade, Jason Wheeler, Tim Shibuya, Brett Lee, Matthew Summers
     
    Conclusion: The system has now peaked. Losing the second-round pick Kyle Cody hurts as well. Including the honorable mentions, though, the Twins here have 70 players who could make it to the show.
  5. Shane Wahl
    It is time for part 2 of my mid-season prospect list. Here are the top 30 position player prospects in the Twins system:
     
    1. Byron Buxton (1): CF, 12-18-93
    2015 status: Buxton is basically done with minor league baseball. He got injured again, but should be back with the Twins in September. ETA: already arrived.
     
    2. Miguel Sano (2): 3B, 5-3-93
    2015 status: Has obliterated the baseball after his promotion to the Twins. He is also done with minor league baseball. Sano will be used as the DH primarily for the rest of this year, but the Twins should be shopping Trevor Plouffe in the offseason. ETA: already arrived.
     
    3. Jorge Polanco (3): SS/2B, 7-5-93
    2015 status: Promoted to the Twins for one game and then moved to Rochester from Chattanooga. His bat is ready, not he just needs to get his SS defense up to acceptable standards. ETA: 2015.
     
    4. Max Kepler (6): OF/1B, 2-10-93
    2015 status: In the midst of a breakout season that is really pushing the envelope for the Twins. I would like to see a move up to AAA and then a September call up. Outstanding to see Kepler develop in this way this year. Could be trade bait. ETA: September 2015, or 2016 after Twins roster shakeup in offseason.
     
    5. Nick Gordon (5): SS, 10-24-95
    2015 status: The youngster struggled offensively initially at Cedar Rapids, but is really hitting his stride. Defense is great. ETA: 2019
     
    6. Adam Walker (7): RF, 10-18-91
    2015 status: He is having a great season. Homers and strikeouts abound, but he is also hitting a bit better overall and has an .899 OPS. Also trade bait. ETA: September 2015 for some fun homers, or else 2016 after some AAA time.
     
    7. Amaurys Minier (8): OF/1B, 1-30-96
    2015 status: Getting moved to Elizabethon will be a bit of a challenge initially, but he should be fine. He could have a monster season. ETA: 2020.
     
    8. Lewis Diaz (11): 1B, 11-19-96
    2015 status: Getting used to playing in the States. Born on the day I got my driver's license. Taking it slow, obviously, but Diaz is about as fun as any prospect to watch in anticipation for the rest of the year. ETA: 2021.
     
    9. Wandy Javier (NR): SS, 12-29-98
    2015 status: Just signed by the Twins to a $4 million bonus, the SS could top this list within two years. Looks like a good all-around player, both offensively and defensively. ETA: 2022.
     
    10. Travis Harrison (9): LF/RF, 10-17-92
    2015 status: Harrison is a good all-around hitter, who is fully in the OF this year. The power still has not come, however, and this is going to force him down the list. Harrison is definitely someone the Twins should try to shop in some package in the offseason, or if they really want to trade for a bullpen arm for the stretch run in 2015. ETA: September 2016.
     
    11. Levi Michael (10): 2B, 2-9-91
    2015 status: Michael has battled an injury again this season. When actually healthy, he is good. He has an .807 OPS for Chattanooga this year and is back to stealing bases. He is slugging substantially more this year, which is interesting. Given everyone above him, Michael is in Harrison's camp as trade material. ETA: September 2016.
     
    12. Travis Blankenhorn (NR): 3B, 8-3-96
    2015 status: Drafted in the third round, the Twins sent Blankenhorn to the GCL. Nice pick, good bat. ETA: 2020.
     
    13. Niko Goodrum (14): SS/3B/CF, 2-28-92
    2015 status: Promoted to Chattanooga after an OK start in Fort Myers. He always threatens to push that OPS over .700 . . . time will tell. Great speed. Adding CF to his resume is interesting. Good end up being a more athletic and bigger version of Eduardo Escobar. Still relatively young. ETA: September 2016.
     
    14. Dalton Hicks (20): 1B, 4-2-90
    2015 status: Hicks was smashing the ball in Chattanooga before getting injured. He has been up and down my lists over the past few years now. ETA: September 2016.
     
    15. Tanner English (18): CF, 3-11-93
    2015 status: Has hit a bit of a snag with his first full season, but the steals and defense are intriguing enough. He also draws a good amount of walks. Only grounded into one double play all year, which is crazy. ETA: 2018.
     
    16. Engelb Vielma (17): SS, 6-22-94
    2015 status: Slow to develop bat at Fort Myers, but that should be expected. He is inching toward similar offensive numbers in 2015 as he had in Cedar Rapids in 2014, but the stolen bases have exploded. ETA: 2017 if the Twins want a defensive shortstop, otherwise 2018.
     
    17. Stuart Turner (12): C, 12-27-91
    2015 status: As expected, the bat is bad in AA. He is a very good defensive catcher, however. A .566 OPS in AA is a bit scary and the Twins have an immediate hole at the catcher position. ETA: September 2016.
     
    18. Mitch Garver (15): C, 1-15-91
    2015 status: Started very slowly offensively, but is now coming around. Would like to see him pushed to AA in August to test his bat a little bit and get him ready for a full season of AA in 2016. ETA: 2017.
     
    19. Danny Ortiz (22): OF, 1-5-90
    2015 status: Ortiz was hitting really well to start the year in AAA, then cooled off as he was moved to CF. Maybe the two are unrelated, but I think that it is a good thing for Ortiz to add CF to his resume. The Twins should definitely be interested in his 4th OF capability if they are going to be trading some of their OF depth (Kepler, Walker, Harrison). Otherwise, Ortiz is trade bait to add in a package. ETA: would be September 2015 in about any other organization. Here, 2016.
     
    20. James Beresford (24): 2B/IF, 1-19-89
    2015 status: Beresford is totally consistent. There is basically no steadier a bat in the system. The Twins know how Beresford will produce offensively in the big leagues if they want him there. The issue for him is that he needs to move beyond being a second baseman. His future anywhere is going to be as a utility infielder, much like Ortiz's future is as a 4th OF. ETA: September 2015 wouldn't be totally out of the question if the Twins have 40-man space. Otherwise 2016 somewhere in MLB.
     
    21. Jermaine Palacios (NR): SS/IF, 7-19-96
    2015 status: Palacios is pounding GCL pitching right now after a very solid 2014 season in the DSL. Currently, he is quite slight, measuring six feet tall while being listed at under 150 pounds. He might not outgrow SS, so there is a decent chance that he sticks there. Big sleeper prospect right now. ETA: 2021.
     
    22. Zach Granite (NR): CF/LF, 9-17-92
    2015 status: Granite dominated in Cedar Rapids and was quickly promoted to Fort Myers. He is struggling some there, but should get his 2015 A+ numbers to match his 2014 A numbers. He has very good speed and some decent plate discipline. ETA: 2018
     
    23. Rafael Valera (NR): 2B/3B/SS, 8-15-94
    2015 status: Valera is another sleeper prospect. The Twins sent Valera to Cedar Rapids this year after a decent season in the GCL in 2014. Good plate discipline and speed. ETA: 2019.
     
    24. Max Murphy (13): OF, 11-17-92
    2015 status: After dominating in Elizabethon in 2014, Murphy struggled some in Cedar Rapids last year. Those struggles have continued and that is why he has fallen dramatically on this list. Still can rebound. ETA 2019.
     
    25. Trey Vavra (HM): 1B/LF, 9-17-91
    2015 status: Vavra got off to a torrid start this year before getting injured. His performance has been a pleasant surprise. When healthy he has hit and hit for power. ETA: 2018.
     
    26. Brian Navarreto (HM): C, 12-29-94
    2015 status: Navarreto got off to a terrible start at the plate, then was injured, and now has been better since returning. His defense is good to very good, but the bat is really lagging. He will certainly be in Cedar Rapids for much of 2016. ETA: 2019.
     
    27. Zach Larson (19): OF, 10-8-93
    2015 status: Really going backwards this year, not even really close to his 2014 numbers in Cedar Rapids. He is still young, though, so there is time for him there to work it out. ETA: 2019.
     
    28. Trey Cabbage (NR): 3B, 5-3-97
    2015 status: Drafted in the 4th round, Cabbage could be a bit of a steal in the draft. He is starting out for the GCL. ETA: 2022.
     
    29. Tyler Kuresa (HM): 1B, 11-17-92
    2015 status: I had high hopes of a breakthrough season for Kuresa, but Cedar Rapids was very rough for him. He was then demoted to Elizabethon where he immediately started hammering the ball. After only 63 plate appearances there, the Twins have promoted him back to Cedar Rapids for round two. ETA: 2019.
     
    30. LaMonte Wade (NR): CF, 1-1-94
    2015 status: Drafted in the 9th round, the Twins sent wade to Elizabethon where he is off to a very impressive start. ETA: 2020
     
    Honorable Mentions: Kolton Kendrick (1B), Jorge Fernandez (1B/C), Rainis Silva ©
     
    Overview: This list doesn't compare to the pitching prospects list in terms of depth, though the high-end talent is probably better overall. You can see where it really starts to breakdown with Mitch Garver at 18 as a kind of "hope he doesn't fizzle" status and then the minor league veterans in limbo at AAA in Ortiz and Beresford. Palacios and Valera are two guys to watch. The rest at the end have real questions about either performance or the lack thereof (2015 draftees). Wade is another fun guy to see develop this year.
     
    Breakdown by ETA:
    2015: 1. Buxton, 2. Sano, 3. Polanco.
    2016: 4. Kepler, 6. Walker, 10. Harrison, 11. Michael, 13. Goodrum, 14. Hicks, 17. Turner, 19. Ortiz, 20. Beresford.
    2017: 18. Garver.
    2018: 15. English, 16. Vielma, 22. Granite, 25. Vavra,
    2019: 5. Gordon, 23. Valera, 24. Murphy, 26. Navarreto, 27. Larson, 29. Kuresa.
    2020: 7. Minier, 12. Blankenhorn, 30. Wade
    2021: 8. Diaz, 21. Palacios,
    2022: 9. Javier, 28. Cabbage
     
    Part 3 will be a combined list of pitchers and position players
  6. Shane Wahl
    It is time to re-evaluate the top pitching prospects in the Twins system. Trevor May graduated, and the 2015 draft brought in three fresh pitchers to this list.
     
    1. Jose Berrios (1): RHS, 5-27-94
    2015 status: Strong improvement over 2014 AA numbers. Promoted to AAA. ETA: essentially MLB ready now.
     
    2. Tyler Jay (NR): LHR, 4-19-94
    2015 status: Sent to Fort Myers to the bullpen, likely for the remainder of 2015. Starting ability in question. ETA: 2017
     
    3. Stephen Gonsalves (5): LHS, 7-8-94
    2015 status: Totally dominated A ball, hitting a learning curve in A+ ball, but it should only be a matter of time. Perhaps A+/AA split in 2016. ETA: 2018
     
    4. Alex Meyer (2): RHS, 1-3-90
    2015 status: Struggled in AAA as a starter, converted to reliever temporarily, promoted to Twins as such, optioned back to AAA. Maybe he works on a few things and is back relieving for a playoff Twins team. Otherwise, they have to move him back to try starting one more time. ETA: should be back in 2015.
     
    5. Taylor Rogers (9): LHS, 12-17-90
    2015 status: Strong AAA time, replicating his AA numbers from 2014. I would like to see a playoff push involving Rogers as a lights out LOOGY. ETA: 2015 as a reliever, 2016 as a starter.
     
    6. Chih-Wei Hu (15): RHS, 11-4-93
    2015 status: Hu has finally given up some home runs, but that is about all that has changed from his excellent production in 2013 and 2014. He is an 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 kind of guy. It will be interesting to see how they manage his innings for the rest of the season, since I doubt that he is going to be top 110 innings or so and he is at 66.2 right now. ETA: 2017.
     
    7. Kohl Stewart (3): RHS, 10-7-94
    2015 status: A mediocre strikeout rate has actually fallen sharply in 2015. There is a lot of hand-waving about it as though it doesn't matter, but I think some caution is warranted here. Clearly, Stewart will be in Fort Myers again in 2016. ETA: 2018.
     
    8. Tyler Duffey (10): RHS, 12-27-90
    2015 status: Like Hu, Duffey is producing at his current level with very similar numbers as his overall minor league career numbers, and that is telling. He has been excellent this year, and I almost placed him ahead of Stewart. ETA: 2016.
     
    9. Lewis Thorpe (7): LHS, 11-23-95
    2015 status: The Twins and Thorpe decided to not have Tommy John surgery last September and this amounted to long delay of the inevitable,as Thorpe's April surgery will mean that he is out until at least mid-season 2016. He will only be about 20 and a half when he returns in 2016 (I would assume GCL/Fort Myers) so his status is still top-10 worthy. ETA: 2019 with level/year development.
     
    10. Brandon Peterson (13): RHR, 9-23-91
    2015 status: Peterson did not get the attention that Nick Burdi and Jake Reed did after last season. Then the Twins kept him down in Fort Myers for some inexplicable reason. Now, he is up in Chattanooga and he has not missed a beat at all. The 13 K/9 coupled with an acceptable 3.3 BB/9 makes him an elite reliever prospect. ETA: 2016.
     
    11. Zach Jones (12): RHR, 12-4-90
    2015 status: Jones was dominant until his last two appearances and is now on the DL. When he gets healthy, the Twins should consider promoting him to AAA. ETA: 2015 or 2016.
     
    12. Nick Burdi (4): RHR, 1-19-93
    2015 status: Things started poorly, got significantly better for a little bit, then went so poorly that the Twins actually just demoted Burdi back to Fort Myers, in a move that is rather perplexing, even with his bad performance. His mechanics have been altered significantly, and this might be the problem. ETA: 2017.
     
    13. Jake Reed (8): RHR, 9-29-92
    2015 status: Like Burdi, the stock is falling here for Jake Reed. He has struggled in AA and should remain there well into next season. ETA: 2016 only if all goes well.
     
    14. Kyle Cody (NR): RHS, 8-9-95
    2015 status: Still unsigned, for whatever reason. I am personally not very enthused with this draft pick. ETA: 2019
     
    15. Felix Jorge (20): RHS, 1-2-94
    2015 status: He's back and pitching very well. The strikeout rate has dropped, but so has the walk rate. He is also not giving up very many hits. I think he likely moves to A+ when the Twins move Hu to AA. ETA: 2018.
     
    16. JT Chargois (HM): RHR, 12-3-90
    2015 status: Chargois is back after not pitching in 2013 or 2014. He is doing very well, though his control is an issue. It was rather shocking how he dominated A+ ball though, and he is up to AA. ETA: 2016 if he remains healthy.
     
    17. Alex Robinson (NR): LHR, 8-11-94
    2015 status: After being drafted in the fifth round, he headed off to the Elizabethon bullpen. ETA: 2019.
     
    18. Michael Cederoth (11): RHP, 11-25-92
    2015 status: He has struggled a bit in A ball this year, walking a lot of guys as a starter. He moved to the bullpen and has been excellent. I imagine he stays there. ETA: 2018.
     
    19. Mat Batts (HM): LHS, 7-6-91
    2015 status: After a very strong start to the 2015 season in Cedar Rapids, Batts was promoted to Fort Myers where he continues to be fantastic. ETA: 2018.
     
    20. Cameron Booser (24): LHR, 5-4-92
    2015 status: Strong for Cedar Rapids, but he is walking an awful lot of guys. He strikes out a ton too, though. ETA: 2018.
     
    21. Trevor Hildenberger (NR): RHR, 12-15-90
    2015 status: Hildenberger has been out of control dominant for Cedar Rapids. It isn't clear why he is not in Fort Myers by now. ETA: 2017, if the Twins are at all serious about him.
     
    22. Aaron Slegers (HM): RHS, 9-4-92
    2015 status: Slegers is a solid starting pitching prospect who might continue to climb the prospect rankings, but shouldn't fall far. Very good K/BB rate. ETA: 2018.
     
    23. John Curtiss (14): RHS, 4-5-93
    2015 status: I was too high on Curtiss going into the season. He has been hit pretty hard in A ball this year. The strikeouts are still there, but it is going to be a slow ascent in the system. ETA: 2019.
     
    24. Alexis Tapia (NR): RHS, 8-10-95
    2015 status: Very young, but with good strikeout and walk numbers. Could climb fast. ETA 2019.
     
    25. Alex Wimmers (NR): RHS, 11-1-88
    2015 status: It is fantastic that Wimmers has gotten back into the swing of things. That he is starting again and striking people out is a testament to his perseverance. ETA: 2016 if the Twins are aggressive.
     
    26. Randy Rosario (22): LHS, 5-18-94
    2015 status: Hopefully, a healthy Rosario can get on track and return to showing the promise of his pre-2014 career. ETA: 2019.
     
    27. Todd Van Steensel (HM): RHR, 1-14-91
    2015 status: Van Steensel is a strikeout machine for Fort Myers. Undoubtedly, he will finish the year in AA if some of the pitchers in AA and AAA get promotions. ETA: 2016.
     
    28. Ryan O'Rourke (25): LHR, 4-30-88
    2015 status: O'Rourke has just been promoted to the Twins. He has been hit hard by right-handed hitters this year again, but the strikeout numbers against lefties are astounding. He could make it as a dominant LOOGY. A Twins playoff bullpen with Rogers and O'Rourke would negate left-handed hitters in the late innings. ETA: right now.
     
    29. Luke Bard (NR): RHR, 11-13-90
    2015 status: Bard is back healthy and looks to get his career on track. I am placing him above some honorable mentions here because he was the 42nd pick in the 2012 draft. ETA: 2017 if he stays healthy and the Twins are aggressive with him in 2016.
     
    30. DJ Baxendale (NR), RHS, 12-8-90
    2015 status: Shows what I know. I thought Baxendale was a slightly better version of BJ Hermsen after his bad 2014 in AA. He returned there and has been solid. He just needs to stay healthy and fine-tune things and he could be another starting option in 2016. ETA: 2016.
     
    Honorable Mentions: Yorman Landa, Ryan Eades, Kuo-Hua Lo, Mason Melotakis, Corey Williams, Alex Muren, Fernando Romero, Jason Wheeler, Brett Lee, Adrian Salcedo, Tim Shibuya, Matt Summers
     
    This is an extensive list, ending with a lot of "C" prospects who could still develop and move up this list. I tend to value progress up into the higher levels of the minors a bit more than ceiling, until high-ceiling pitchers actually get to A+ ball and succeed.
     
    Breaking this down by ETA:
     
    2015: 1. Berrios. 4. Meyer. 5. Rogers. 11. Jones. 28. O'Rourke. (3 SP, 2 RP)
    2016: 8. Duffey. 10. Peterson. 13. Reed. 16. Chargois. 25. Wimmers. 27. Van Steensel. 30. Baxendale. (3 SP, 4 RP)
    2017: 2. Jay. 6. Hu. 12. Burdi. 21. Hildenberger. 29. Bard. (2 SP, 3 RP)
    2018: 3. Gonsalves. 7. Stewart. 15. Jorge. 18. Cederoth. 19. Batts. 20. Booser. 22. Slegers. (5 SP, 2 RP)
    2019: 9. Thorpe. 14. Cody. 17. Robinson. 23. Curtiss. 24. Tapia. 26. Rosario. (4 SP, 2 RP)
     
    Not all thirty (42) are going to actually arrive in the show, but each one of these guys could realize his potential and get there someday, with some team. There is also adequate depth, clearly, to trade from as the Twins become serious contenders in 2016 and beyond.
  7. Shane Wahl
    A point in making very long prospect lists is to establish the fact that certain players are on the radar. Josmil Pinto was around 50 on my list after his 2011 season and we have seen how that went. Here, I am singling out 12 prospects who are not in most top 20 Twins prospect lists, but they could easily be with very strong 2015 seasons. I expect that at least three of these guys will be in the top 20 in six months time.
     
    Jorge Fernandez
    Lewin Diaz
    Levi Michael
    Mat Batts
    Aaron Slegers
    J.T. Chargois
    Zach Granite
    John Curtiss
    Tyler Kuresa
    Tanner English
    Jack Barrie
    Zach Larson
  8. Shane Wahl
    The headline here is a reference--if you do not know somehow--to a line from The Big Lebowski. It's the scene in the car where Walter has brought "the ringer" ("the whites") and The Dude loses it on him. The Dude is a very chill guy who smokes pot, listens to CCR, and bowls. But in this scene he yells (editing profanity) "You (screwed) it up! You (screwed) it up!" Walter responds with the quote in the headline.
     
    Well it's that time of year when the Twins opening day roster becomes finalized and many, including myself, are screaming what The Dude was screaming in the car. I mean it all seems ridiculous. Maybe not each individual move taken separately, but when looking at the totality--Milone, Pelfrey, Boyer, and Robinson as choices over May, Meyer, Tonkin/Oliveros/Achter, and Hicks/Rosario, on top of the additions of Hunter and Stauffer--it looks like a big roster mistake based on some strange notion of trying to compete with aging guys instead of rebuilding with younger guys.
     
    That's all true. I don't think the truth is on the Twins side here. This seems like a bizarre way to approach the season, especially since this doesn't mean merely having the young guys "earn" a promotion to the Twins . . . they are now forced to compete with one another down in AAA and even AA in some cases. It would seem like a rebuilding team promotes the young guys to get a sense of who is going to be worthy of keeping in 2016 and beyond. I cannot imagine any of those six--Milone, Pelfrey, Boyer, Robinson, Hunter, and Stauffer--being on the team in 2016.
     
    But screaming about this isn't going to do any good and it isn't good for oneself. It is indeed being very un-dude. Here's a breakdown:
     
    A. It's baseball. Baseball isn't like bowling . . . but watching baseball is like bowling in that you do it for fun and you drink beer while doing it.
     
    B. There might be value in finding even one of those six guys who puts up a legitimate year that adds wins to the team this year. Stauffer and Hunter are the best bets there. ST stats mean very little. Stauffer is a good reliever.
     
    C. Maybe this new focus on the changeup will improve the staff, including Boyer.
     
    D. The young guys can all be together and work together and help each other out that way. Rochester suddenly has Rosario, Hicks, and Danny Ortiz in the OF. May and Meyer will be leading the rotation with the likes of Wheeler, Rogers, and maybe Duffey. Tonkin, Oliveros, and Achter are going to be in the bullpen with O'Rourke, Darnell (if I were Darnell, I would advocate for a full-time bullpen role), Hamburger, and Pressly. Rochester actually should be full of prospects, which is rare. It should be good though.
     
    E. Nothing is really stopping a mass movement upward. This isn't Gardenhire's team, so we don't really know what to expect. If the oldsters aren't getting the job done, then I do think Molitor will replace them. And this can include a Schafer-Robinson for Hicks-Rosario swap. First, Rosario is going to get some time at second base in Rochester, and thus he still has that going for the Twins as another backup for Dozier. Second, Hunter is going to need days off, as will Mauer, and younger guys like Arcia and Vargas. There are innings and at bats there. Also, with each passing day the Twins are paying Mike Pelfrey less and less. Milone and Stauffer aren't making all that much, and Boyer is making very little. They are all replaceable and will be replaced with one wave from AAA and then another from AA.
     
    F. We don't know what is going to happen, so let's just enjoy it. There are still a number of things to be excited about. First, a fully recovered Joe Mauer. Second, Santana and Vargas soph seasons. Third, Oswaldo Arcia is going to go ape this year. I guarantee that. Fourth, Eduardo Escobar is still going to get plenty of at bats and be a doubles machine. Finally, a new manager and pitching coach. This is the most important thing. Those old, ridiculous days are gone.
     
    G. Being un-Dude is a terrible way to be.
     
    It's understandable that we are "not into the whole levity thing" right now. We have ideas about what should be done and the Twins make mistakes. But it is clear that this is still the beginning of baseball season and that is something to be quite pleased about. I do think that these problems are going to work themselves out. The September roster should be pretty sick. There will be trades made that will help support a minor league system that hopefully is seeing its last top 10 overall pick this year.
     
    There are still plenty of good things occurring outside of the decisions regarding players 21-25 on the roster.
  9. Shane Wahl
    The first two entries in this series focused on players who are moving up in the system and the question is one of advancing to AA baseball, which is really (Jorge Polanco 2014 aside) the real first glimpse of closeness to the majors that a minor leaguer can see. For the final installment, I am turning to another major step in the system--full season A ball--and am profiling catcher Brian Navarreto as a "push candidate" for promotion to Cedar Rapids.
     
    The Player
     
    Brian Navarreto is 20 years old (DOB: December 29, 1994) and is 6'4", 220+ pounds. He was drafted in the 6th round of the 2013 draft out of Arlington Country Day School in Jacksonville, Florida. He has played in only 73 games in the Twins organization. He bats right handed and is a superb defensive catcher. Navarreto has played in both rookie levels in the organization and it might be time for him to move on up to full-season baseball.
     
    The Situation
     
    While his defense has been excellent, his bat faltered in his time in Elizabethon in 2014. His 2013 season was decent at the plate, with a .683 OPS in 158 plate appearances for the Gulf Coast Twins. Moving to Elizabethon in 2014 meant that Navarreto was going to face more ex-college level pitching and he did struggle. In 116 plate appearances, he posted a .194/.241/.370 (.612) line, with eight doubles, one triple, three homers, seven walks, and 33 strikeouts. He did pound lefties for a .930 OPS, however.
     
    He is getting closer and closer to major league ready as a defender. He threw out a whopping 59% (16 for 27) of runners in 2014. It would seem to make sense to move him to Cedar Rapids to catch the next level of pitcher, and let his bat come along more slowly if need be.
     
    The Possibilities
     
    Navarreto could easily return to Extended Spring Training and then report to Elizabethon to work on his offense. He could also just move up to Cedar Rapids, with the Twins not worried about his bat catching up soon enough. He has good power and should continue to improve offensively.
     
    Moving to Cedar Rapids would mean pairing with Jorge Fernandez behind the plate. Often times it makes sense to have a prospect and then an organizational catcher at each level, but I think both Fernandez and Navarreto deserve their time in Cedar Rapids. Both of them could fly up prospect lists after solid 2015 seasons in A ball. The two of them have time at first base in the minors and they are appropriately sized as well for the position to get on the field that way as well. I would expect Cedar Rapids to keep both in the lineup every day between catcher, first base, and designated hitter.
     
    Conclusion
     
    This wraps up the three-part feature on three players in the system who I think should be pushed to the next level for 2015. Walker and Harrison can find time in AA Chattanooga and that destination is going to be pretty malleable roster-wise with prospects like Buxton, Sano, Rosario, and Polanco likely moving up to AAA quickly. Navarreto is still raw and needs development, but is excellent defensively and has intriguing power potential. All three players are at crucial times in development: Walker and Harrison need to improve various aspects of their approach at the plate to fine-tune their game, and Navarreto needs to get more comfortable and to get more at bats to take the next step toward top-20 prospect material.
  10. Shane Wahl
    The second of three articles featuring players who I believe should be "pushed" to the next level in the system will focus on Travis Harrison. Harrison had some high expectations after being drafted and has moved through the system in the same way that Adam Walker has. There are still a number of question marks about Harrison's potential, both in the field and at the plate. I do think that the Chattanooga Lookouts' roster has room for both Walker and Harrison, and thus I think that there are more arguments in favor of Harrison's promotion to AA, than there are for keeping him in A+ to start the year. That said, his prospect status is certainly starting to drop. Most of this is probably the result of an influx of top talent in the system, but some of this falls on Harrison as well.
     
    The Player
     
    Travis Harrison is 22 years old (DOB: October 17, 1992) and is 6'1" 215+ pounds. He was drafted in the first round (50) of the 2011 draft out of Tustin High School in Tustin, California. He has played in 318 games, with about 60% coming at 3B, 30% in LF, and 10% as a DH or pinch hitter. He bats from the right side. Expected to display substantial power, he has not actually done so thus far in his career. Harrison has progressed one step at a time through from Rookie ball through A+ ball and now is facing an interesting point in his career.
     
    The Situation
     
    Harrison was considered to be a power-hitting third baseman coming out of high school, but a player who also was likely to end up playing first base. In 2012 in Elizabethon, he posted an .845 OPS in 253 plate appearances. In 2013 for Cedar Rapids, he impressed with a .253/.366/.416 (.782) line, totaling 28 doubles and 15 homers. He was quite young for the league and this was a big step. He did strike out 125 times, but also walked 68 times in 537 plate appearances. He was going to be overmatched some of the time there, but still succeeded. Moving to Fort Myers in 2014, he again had 537 plate appearances. His numbers for the year were .269/.361/.365 (.726), with 34 doubles, one triple, three homers, 64 walks, and 86 strikeouts. He also stole seven bases in 12 attempts.
     
    There are some similarities, then, between 2013 and 2014. His BA and OBP are very close, he added only a few doubles in 2014, and he walked roughly the same amount of times. Notice, however, a very interesting difference between Harrison and Adam Walker. Harrison's home run power was nowhere to be found in 2014, but he also greatly reduced his strikeouts. Perhaps this was an effort to become a more complete batter. The contrast with Walker is rather striking. There are two very different approaches here, and it will be interesting to watch them each make adjustments in 2015. The general thinking is that the power is still there for Harrison. The doubles certainly may attest to that.
     
    Harrison's move to the OF is due to some significant trouble at third base, obviously. First base may have been the original second position that many had in mind, and it still might (and should) be an option. Right now, I would think that all four corner positions should be kept in view for Harrison as he moves forward.
     
    The Possibilities
     
    A .726 OPS for a corner OF is not great, however, so "moving forward" might not happen immediately. Harrison certainly could use some time in Fort Myers, I suppose, to slug his way out of such a middling kind of performance. Furthermore, maybe Harrison should stay in A ball to work on his defense without the added pressure of raising offense while moving up another level.
     
    On the other hand, Harrison did improve important aspects offensively and the power can still come back. I would worry that he is following a Chris Parmelee kind of path of development in terms of concentrating on contact and good at bats at the expense of power, but I do think the discipline at the plate propels him forward in the eyes of the Twins. Harrison should be able to demonstrate at minimum moderate improvement with a move out of the FSL and into the Southern League.
     
    Sticking at 3B would have been ideal. I do think that he should still get some time there, but I have to believe that some shift across the diamond to 1B on top of his time in the OF is going to happen. Chattanooga does have room on its roster for both Harrison and Walker, even with Kepler, Rosario, Sano, and Hicks also on the roster.
     
    Harrison's prospect status has dropped over the past few years from near top-10 to high teens or low-mid 20s in some rankings. He can move back up prospect lists with a good year in 2015, especially if he can keep the plate discipline while getting 12-15 homers. It isn't clear to me what the long-term future in the Twins organization is for Harrison. While he has fallen on Twins lists, he still would be a borderline top-10 prospect for the majority of teams in baseball. With a good season in 2015, he then could be very attractive for other teams looking for a promising bat. I do not know what sort of scenario would find the Twins trading away any prospects in 2015, but maybe the season is good enough to warrant such consideration in the offseason.
     
    In any event, I would like to see Harrison move up to Chattanooga and see what he can do with what he learned in 2014. He still can be a breakout kind of player and such a season would provide the Twins with even more quality prospect depth going forward.
  11. Shane Wahl
    Leading up to Spring Training, I am highlighting three players in the system who are "push candidates." These are players who I think should be pushed to the next level in the minor league system, even with some issues with their 2014 seasons that might give the Twins pause. I am not one who thinks players need to "dominate" a level before being promoted, and I certainly think that there are two points in the system where there are the kind of "put up or shut up" moments for a player (first full season in Cedar Rapids, and first season with MLB-caliber talent in Chattanooga).
     
    The first player to be featured is one that creates a major stir in discussions at Twins Daily, with maybe only Joe Mauer causing more of a split in the intelligent fan base between people on opposing sides of player evaluation. I am talking about Adam Brett Walker III. Here, I do not want to get this discussion mired in repetition of the same usual stuff about Walker. Instead, the purpose is to just lay out the full range of possibilities for Walker, letting them speak for themselves.
     
    The Player
     
    Adam Walker is 23 years old (DOB: October 18, 1991) and is 6'4", 225+ pounds. He was drafted in the third round of the 2012 draft by the Twins out of Jacksonsville University and has played 285 games, all as a right fielder. He bats right-handed, has tremendous power, and decent speed. Starting in 2012 in Rookie ball (Elizabethon), Walker has progressed one step at a time through the system, playing a full season in 2014 at Fort Myers. It looks like 2015 would mean one more step up the ladder to AA Chattanooga.
     
    The Situation
     
    Walker has displayed great power and bad plate discipline each of his three seasons in the organization. In his first full season he posted a .278/.319/.526 (.844) line, with 31 doubles, seven triples, and 27 homers. He stole 10 bases in 10 attempts. In 552 plate appearances, he walked only 31 times while striking out 115 times. I thought after the 2013 that much of the complaining about his K rate and the K/BB rate were overblown. Strikeouts simply come with tremendous power (Albert Pujols is one of only a few exceptions). I also figured that the walks would come as he saw more pitching.
     
    2014 didn't really resolve anything. He moved to the pitcher-dominated FSL and kept the homers coming. And the strikeouts. He put together a .246/.307/.436 (.743) line with 19 doubles, one triple, and 25 homers. He had nine steals in 14 attempts. In 554 plate appearances (neatly close to identical for comparison's sake) he walked 44 times and struck out 156 times. So the walks did increase some, and I am still not overly concerned about the sheer number of strikeouts by themselves. Clearly, though, these strikeouts mean lower contact as his batting average dropped 32 points.
     
    What does actually concern me is that the doubles and triples really dropped. The latter might be a result of losing some overall speed and athleticism as he fills out and bulks up, but the drop in doubles is strange. His isolated power in 2013 was a whopping .248 (Willie Stargell territory), but in 2014 in dropped to .190 (Ryan Zimmerman territory). It is still impressive, but much less so than the power that really stood out in 2013. So this leads up to an important question. Where are the Twins going to send Walker in 2015?
     
    The Possibilities
     
    Walker might be kept in Fort Myers to work on that plate discipline and contact rate. The Twins do keep players in A ball if they struggle there. For some examples, Aaron Hicks, Chris Parmelee, and Joe Benson spent the equivalent of two seasons in Beloit, Angel Morales stuck around in Fort Myers for the equivalent of two full seasons, and Levi Michael was in his third year at Fort Myers in 2014 before hitting his way to AA. This would keep him facing the level of pitching that Walker is familiar with so that there is no added pressure and he can focus in on rounding out (as much as possible) his batting approach.
     
    The parenthetical remark above points to another direction, however. It is just not wise to think of Adam Walker as an all-around batter who just needs some polish. Rather, he is likely primarily a slugger, and as such is a poor man's Miguel Sano in that he lacks the potential that Sano has in becoming a near-complete package as a batter. There's still a lot of value in that power alone, especially if Walker can become an average or slightly above average right fielder. Following this line of thought, I would say that Walker should be promoted to AA Chattanooga to see if the move away from the pitcher-dominated FSL to the merely pitcher-friendly Eastern League can let his bat take off.
     
    Subsequent struggles with contact can be ironed out with extended time in AA. I would hate to see Walker just stagnate in Fort Myers and then have adjustment issues in AA to still deal with a year from now. I think it is better to push him now and see what happens, especially given how dominant the supporting lineup in Chattanooga is going to be for at least a few months to open the season.
     
    Undoubtedly, the debate about Walker will continue as the strikeouts aren't going to drop significantly and the walks aren't going to grow significantly in AA this year. I am going to be most interested in watching the slugging get back north of .460, at the very least. Improved defense and maintaining a moderate stolen base threat will help Walker progress nicely through the system.
  12. Shane Wahl
    Assuming the Twins start the season with 13 position players and also assuming that there are no significant injuries to the leading 13 position players, it seems almost set in stone who is breaking camp for the Twins. Those players will be Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto, Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, Brian Dozier, Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Torii Hunter, Jordan Schafer, and Eduardo Nunez. Really only Hicks and Nunez leave any doubt, but it is hard to see the team going any other way (I don't really care for Nunez on the roster, but he is very cheap and at least runs well).
     
    I decided to go through the list of players both on and off the 40-man roster who could be next up for the Twins, whether it be for injury or performance reasons, and whether it be for prospect development or mere roster completion.
     
    The other position players on the 40-man roster besides these 13 are: SS/2B Jorge Polanco, 3B Miguel Sano, C/LF/RF Chris Herrmann, OF/2B Eddie Rosario, and OF/1B Max Kepler.
     
    Four of these players are prospects, and only one of those prospects has any time in MLB (Polanco). Polanco needs seasoning in AA and AAA before coming back to the Twins. After being very successful in A+ ball (.291/.364/.415), he definitely struggled at times in AA (.281/.323/.342). He did have 36 extra base hits (seven homers) and 17 steals for the year, while his 55/88 BB/K rate between the two levels is respectable. It is important to remember that Polanco is almost two months younger than Sano.
     
    Speaking of, Sano should join the Twins at some point this season, though it seems unlikely to be before the All-Star break. The Twins will want him to dominate AA (he may be asked to do the same in AAA too). I would expect Sano to simply replace Nunez on the roster, but obviously play almost every day. The Twins are going to have to figure something out with Plouffe, as I can't see the Twins moving Sano to any other position during the season. Sano boasts a career .940 OPS in 1606 plate appearances in the minors.
     
    Rosario needs AA seasoning as well, though he was very successful in the AFL. He might position himself to move up with Sano. I would expect him to replace Schafer on the roster, but play almost every day. Rosario managed only a .237/.277/.396 line at AA last season, but in the AFL his numbers improved to .330/.345/.410, with 10 steals.
     
    Max Kepler posted a .264/.333/.393 line at A+ last season, but had AFL success too (.307/.366/.440). He is the farthest from MLB of any of these prospects. He should spend a full season in Chattanooga.
     
    Chris Herrmann graduated from prospect status at some point in 2013. He provides another catching option while providing depth in the corner OF positions. The Twins like him and feel safe with adding him if they need a player while someone else goes on a DL stint. He has struggled in MLB, but finally started to pound AAA pitching with an .878 OPS in 228 plate appearances for Rochester in 2014.
     
    There are players not currently on the 40-man roster who would obviously need someone else off or someone placed on the DL to get a chance to play for the Twins.
     
    Eric Fryer and Dan Rohlfing are two catchers playing for Rochester who could get a chance with the Twins in 2015. Fryer spent significant time with the big league club last year (.578 OPS) and would be the most likely fill-in if Suzuki or Pinto are injured for any longer amount time. Rohlfing is a nice all-around player who needs to get his bat going in AAA to be taken seriously (.618 OPS in 2014 there).
     
    The infielders who could move up from Rochester are utility players James Beresford and Doug Bernier, and 1B/corner OFs Brock Peterson and Reynaldo Rodriguez. Beresford (.674 OPS, with 28 doubles for Rochester in 2014) just turned 26 and must be considered before the aging Bernier (.744 OPS in 2014 for Rochester). He is very consistent both offensively and defensively and would fill in nicely for as a utility player either for Escobar or to replace someone else if Escobar became the starter for a period of time. Peterson and Rodriguez have had ample minor league slugging success (Peterson has hit 40 homers in the past two years, and Rodriguez has hit 43). The path to the Twins for these two is pretty steep, though Rodriguez could be a nice bench bat as a RH guy with some power.
     
    The outfielders for Rochester are three aging players and Danny Ortiz, who is a marginal prospect at this point mainly because he simply does not take any walks. Eric Farris (.671 career AAA OPS), Shane Robinson (.708 career AAA OPS), and Wilkin Ramirez (.726 career AAA OPS) are not worthy of MLB consideration anymore, though Farris is speedy and can also play second base. Ortiz has put up solid enough numbers and finished 2014 with a .285/.308/.462 line and 12 homers between AA and AAA. Unfortunately, he struck out 85 times while walking only 13 times. He is able to play all three OF positions, though CF is a bit of a long shot.
     
    Last--but certainly not least--there is Byron Buxton, future CF for the Minnesota Twins. Buxton will start in a ridiculously loaded AA lineup in Chattanooga (with Sano, Rosario, Polanco, etc.). Buxton posted a .240/.313/.405 line with four homers and six steals in 134 plate appearances in A+ ball in 2014. Given the freak injuries of a year ago, Buxton's development has been stunted. I don't see him arriving in Minnesota before September this year.
     
    On top of the 13 players likely breaking camp with the Twins I have added 13 players who could see time with the club in the near future. Five of them are already on the 40-man roster and have the inside track to joining the Twins, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few of the guys not currently on the 40-man roster to make an appearance, especially Fryer, Beresford, and Ortiz.
  13. Shane Wahl
    I am doing something brand new with my prospect list for 2015. I am splitting the list into two parts, one for pitching and one for position players, with each list having 25 prospects and 5 honorable mentions named. These honorable mentions end up being 10 guys in the system to really watch this year for potential breakout seasons.
     
    I am providing only bare bones info for each of them because one really ought to check out the Prospect Handbook.
     
    The first part will focus in on the pitchers in the system. There is quite the mix here.
     
    1. Jose Berrios: RHS, 5-27-94
    2015 start: Chattanooga
     
    2. Alex Meyer: RHS, 1-3-90
    2015 start: Ought to be in Twins bullpen, but it looks likely that he will go to Rochester and start for no good reason.
     
    3. Kohl Stewart: RHS, 10-7-94
    2015 start: No real reason not to push Stewart to Fort Myers.
     
    4. Nick Burdi: RHR, 1-19-93
    2015 start: Chattanooga with some setup and closer duties.
     
    5. Stephen Gonsalves: LHS, 7-8-94
    2015 start: Cedar Rapids for half the season.
     
    6. Trevor May: RHS, 9-23-89
    2015 start: Looks like Rochester rotation, barring some injuries to Twins pitchers in ST. He suffers from the Santana signing, Ricky Nolasco being around, and the abomination that is Mike Pelfrey's situation.
     
    7. Lewis Thorpe: LHS, 11-23-95
    2015 start: either TJ surgery or Cedar Rapids. Might be best to shut him down with surgery early in ST in order to save his 2016 season. He would still be on pace for an early-20s appearance in the big leagues. If he gets through the elbow injury fine without surgery this year . . . wow.
     
    8. Jake Reed: RHR, 9-29-92
    2015 start: Closing in Fort Myers for first half of the season. Chattanooga with same role second half, likely.
     
    9. Taylor Rogers: LHS, 12-17-90
    2015 start: Rochester rotation without a doubt.
     
    10. Tyler Duffey: RHS, 12-27-90
    2015 start: Rochester rotation.
     
    11. Michael Cederoth: RHP, 11-25-92
    2015 start: Cedar Rapids rotation, though he should get some bullpen work due to innings limit.
     
    12. Zach Jones: RHR, 12-4-90
    2015 start: Setup and closer duties for Chattanooga.
     
    13. Brandon Peterson: RHR, 9-23-91
    2015 start: Setup in Chattanooga.
     
    14. John Curtiss: RHP, 4-5-93
    2015 start: Cedar Rapids rotation and bullpen. Maybe 100 innings or so.
     
    15. Chih-wei Hu: RHS, 11-4-93
    2015 start: Fort Myers rotation and bullpen. Maybe 100 innings or so.
     
    16. Mason Melotakis: LHR, 6-28-91
    2015 start: Underwent TJ surgery in October. 2016 in Chattanooga. Full-time bullpen.
     
    17. Adrian Salcedo: RHR, 2-5-91
    2015 start: Part of Chattanooga's dominant bullpen to work out some kinks. Then Rochester.
     
    18. Fernando Romero: RHS, 12-24-94
    2015 start: Underwent TJ surgery midseason. Maybe get some work in August. 2016 Cedar Rapids rotation.
     
    19. Sam Clay: LHP, 6-21-93
    2015 start: Cedar Rapids bullpen with some rotation time after other starters move to Fort Myers. 80 innings or so.
     
    20. Felix Jorge: RHS, 1-2-94
    2015 start: Was much higher on this list. Struggled in 2014 and I have to think there is a lurking injury has his velocity dropped significantly. If healthy, Cedar Rapids rotation and 130 innings.
     
    21. Yorman Landa: RHP, 6-11-94
    2015 start: Shoulder surgery last June. Should be fine early in the season to return and pitch for Cedar Rapids out of the bullpen and maybe later on in the rotation.
     
    22. Randy Rosario: LHS, 5-18-94
    2015 start: TJ surgery in April, so he will be ready early in the season for EST or by mid-season to start for Cedar Rapids.
     
    23. Kuo-hua Lo: RHR, 10-28-92
    2015 start: Cedar Rapids bullpen. Could move quickly to Fort Myers.
     
    24. Cameron Booser: LHR, 5-4-92
    2015 start: Cedar Rapids bullpen.
     
    25. Ryan O'Rourke: LHR, 4-30-88
    2015 start: Rochester bullpen
     
    Honorable mention (all "to watch" guys for potential breakouts): Mat Batts (LHS, 23), Aaron Slegers (RHS, 22), Brandon Poulson (RHR, 25), J.T. Chargois (RHR, 24), Todd Van Steensel (RHR, 24)
     
     
    (Note: I am moving to a 25 innings rule for relievers in the big leagues in terms of graduating out of prospect land. Thus, Michael Tonkin, who would be about 19 or 20 on this list, is not included. Lester Oliveros, who would be about 22 or 23, is not included either).
     
    With Romero and Melotakis being out for the season, or at least most of it, that leaves 28 pitchers to put somewhere. Disregarding the Twins mistake of ramming the bullpen from the top down by adding Stauffer (and maybe Graham), keeping Pelfrey around instead of ending that terrible relationship, and very likely keeping Duensing, those 28 breakdown into four different teams, in my view.
     
    Thus, the Rochester rotation would have No. 2 Meyer, No. 6 May, No. 9 Rogers, and No. 10 Duffey (good news for Rochester through May at least!), and No. 25 O'Rourke would be in the bullpen as a setup man for someone like Tonkin or Oliveros.
     
    In Chattanooga, No. 1 Berrios would be leading the rotation. The bullpen would feature No. 4 Burdi, No. 12 Z. Jones, No. 13 Peterson, No. 17 Salcedo and HM Van Steensel (add two lefties and this bullpen is lethal).
     
    The Fort Myers rotation would be loaded with No. 3 Stewart, No. 15 Hu, and HMs Batts and Slegers. The Miracle bullpen would have Reed and Chargois at the end, which would prove to be a lights-out combination for as long as they stay down in Fort Myers.
     
    Cedar Rapids would have a ridiculous rotation: No. 5 Gonsalves, No. 7 Thorpe (if healthy), No. 11. Cederoth, No. 14. Curtiss, No. 20 Jorge, and No. 22 Rosario. If all six of those guys are healthy, Cedar Rapids will dominate. And that doesn't even mention the bullpen: No. 19 Clay, No. 21. Landa, No. 23 Lo, No. 24 Booser, and HM Poulson.
     
    Undoubtedly, there are some players not included in these 30 who might deserve to be listed (Achter, Adam, Bixler, Gibbons, Irby, Mazza, Rodriguez, Steele, Wheeler, C. Williams, Lee, Wimmers, Tapia, and Eades come to mind, and were all under consideration.).
     
    I do think that this way of breaking down prospects has its advantages. First, there is no weird comparison of position players and pitchers in terms of ranking on a list. The two are just not the same and have different timetables and expectations. Also, this presents a clear picture of what is going on in the system with regard to pitching. I would claim now that the system is loaded up and down, and with a decent number of lefties thrown in. There are about a dozen pitchers like Darnell, Dean, Summers, and even Shibuya, who would have easily made this list if it were not for what the Twins have been able to do in this terrible losing stretch.
     
    I do get frustrated when the Twins don't trust their own system better--if they don't trust their players and their development, then what does that say about the people employed to be in charge of such things in the organization?--and instead add weird free agents like Tim Stauffer, and keep marginally good relievers like Brian Duensing. I would not like to be Michael Tonkin, Lester Oliveros, A.J. Achter, Cole Johnson, or Ryan O'Rourke, five pitchers who all really should be legitimately competing for about three bullpen slots . . . but in reality there are no spots available for them (at most one). And their window of opportunity is really shrinking, especially for the right-handed relievers.
     
    I do hope that this provides a good breakdown of the system with regard to pitching. I cannot stress enough the importance of looking deep into the system at any given time. Players jump up and fall down these kinds of lists quickly, so the honorable mention today could be an overall top 200 prospect within a year or two. Another positive that comes from looking deeper into the system is that you gain a greater appreciation for how good these guys really are at baseball even though they might never even reach AA.
     
    Share your comments about this list and the pros and cons of splitting the prospect list in this way.
  14. Shane Wahl
    Here is the second half of the new--and I think improved--version of my prospect list. I am listing 25 players plus five honorable mentions. A brief about how the system has really improved: I have been ranking the prospects in the system since 2011 and always paid careful attention to inadequacies at certain positions and even handedness. It is finally the year to announce that the Twins are deep in absolutely everything. But, without further ado:
     
    1. Byron Buxton: CF, 12-18-93
    2015 start: Chattanooga. It's time for the top prospect to be healthy and dominate. Easy call for a September call-up at the latest.
     
    2. Miguel Sano: 3B, 5-3-93
    2015 start: Chattanooga. Everything should be aligned for a trip to Minnesota by July.
     
    3. Jorge Polanco: SS/2B, 7-5-93
    2015 start: Chattanooga. He will be up at some point in 2015 for the Twins. There are decisions that must be made.
     
    4. Eddie Rosario: OF/2B, 9-28-91
    2015 start: Chattanooga. Will show up with the Twins by September at the latest. This Chattanooga team is going to be quite interesting to start the season!
     
    5. Nick Gordon: SS, 10-24-95
    2015 start: Cedar Rapids. It's time to see the real deal. The Twins need to push him to full season ball.
     
    6. Max Kepler: OF/1B, 2-10-93
    2015: Chattanooga. No reason to move him down much on the list. Health is the only real concern, though there are still many things to work out before he is considered a good call-up.
     
    7. Adam Walker: RF, 10-18-91
    2015 start: Chattanooga. With Kepler, not ready or the majors yet at all. Power potential is significant.
     
    8. Amaurys Minier: OF/1B, 1-30-96
    2015 start: Elizabethon. He's ready to show off the power potential. The Twins will move slow here, but he could be in AA in two years.
     
    9. Travis Harrison: LF/1B, 10-17-92
    2015 start: Chattanooga. I have to think he will be primarily a 1B/DH with extra LF duties to keep that option open.
     
    10. Levi Michael: SS/2B, 2-9-91
    2015 start: Chattanooga. Michael has arrived, finally, and will be filling out the bottom of a potent Chattanooga lineup.
     
    11. Lewis Diaz: 1B, 11-19-96
    2015 start: GCL. Diaz is an offensive powerhouse. He will light up the GCL.
     
    12. Stuart Turner: C, 12-27-91
    2015 start: Chattanooga. 2016 Twins roster threat.
     
    13. Max Murphy: OF, 11-17-92
    2015 start: Cedar Rapids to begin, but could move to Fort Myers.
     
    14. Niko Goodrum: SS/3B, 2-28-92
    2015 start: Fort Myers for a bit. There is no room for him up in Chattanooga anyway. He needs to get everything together at the plate this year.
     
    15. Mitch Garver: C, 1-15-91
    2015 start: Fort Myers, but will move up to Chattanooga at some point.
     
    16. Aderlin Mejia: IF, 5-12-92
    2015 start: Chattanooga as a utility infielder. But he is strong in that role and should start after some of the top prospects move up.
     
    17. Engelb Vielma: SS, 6-22-94
    2015 start: Fort Myers. He is someone to really watch. If he can continue to develop offensively, he will make it to the big leagues without a doubt.
     
    18. Tanner English: CF, 3-11-93
    2015 start: Cedar Rapids. Pretty impressive all-around.
     
    19. Zach Larson: OF, 10-8-93
    2015 start: Cedar Rapids, but will likely move to Fort Myers as part of a wave of promotions in mid-season.
     
    20. Dalton Hicks: 1B, 4-2-90
    2015 start: Chattanooga, but the roster is pretty full there. He could move back and forth between Chattanooga and Rochester during the year.
     
    21. Chad Christensen: Utility, 10-6-90
    2015 start: Fort Myers, but will move to Chattanooga as a part of mid-season promotions.
     
    22. Danny Ortiz: OF, 1-5-90
    2015 start: Rochester. One of the first guys to be promoted to the Twins in case of injury this year.
     
    23. Tyler Kuresa: 1B, 11-17-92
    2015 start: Cedar Rapids. Could explode this year.
     
    24. James Beresford: IF, 1-19-89
    2015 start: Rochester. He will be among the first called up for the Twins in case of injury.
     
    25. JD Williams: OF, 11-20-90
    2015 start: Fort Myers, though he should move up to Chattanooga after some promotions. He still has excellent speed and can be a very good hitter.
     
    Honorable mention: Jorge Fernandez (C, 20), Alex Swim (C, 23), Rainis Silva (C, 18), Zach Granite (CF, 22), Trey Vavra (1B/OF, 23)
     
    Others who could have made the list include: Jack Barrie, Jason Kanzler, Pat Kelly, Brian Navarreto, and Rafael Valera.
     
    What is most interesting about this is just how dominant AA Chattanooga should be. The breakdown goes like this:
     
    Rochester will have a bunch of guys like Reynaldo Rodriguez, Nate Hanson, Chris Herrmann, Eric Fryer, and Dan Rohlfing filling out much of its lineup. James Beresford and Danny Ortiz will be in the top half of that lineup and will be interesting to watch. Rochester is most likely to benefit from a movement from Chattanooga of some top prospects by June or July. If I was the decision maker, I would probably favor a lineup of Beresford (SS)-Herrmann ©-Ortiz (LF)-Rodriguez (DH)-Hanson (1B)-Rohlfing (RF)-Robinson (CF)-Farris (2B)-Bernier (3B).
     
    Chattanooga will be full of top prospects. The OF should start Rosario, Buxton, and Walker. The infield will start with Sano, Polanco, Michael, and Hicks. Stuart Turner will be the main catcher (with Matthew Koch too). There will be a rotation between the OF, 1B, and DH that will get Max Kepler in the vast majority of games, but obviously there is Travis Harrison too. Aderlin Mejia will add utility depth. The lineup there might be something like: Buxton (CF)-Polanco (SS)-Sano (3B)-Walker (RF)-Rosario (LF)-Kepler (1B)-Harrison (DH)-Turner ©-Michael (2B).
     
    Fort Myers will feature an infield of Goodrum and Vielma on the left side. Garver will be catching and JD Williams will be in the outfield. Alex Swim will catch and get some OF time as well. Kanzler will be all over the OF as well.
     
    Cedar Rapids will be stocked. The OF will have Murphy, English, Larson, and Granite. Gordon, Trey Vavra, and Kuresa will be in the infield, as will Pat Kelly. Jorge Fernandez will be catching.
     
    Elizabethon will have Minier, Navaretto, and Valera, but will also be adding some top 2015 draft talent.
     
    Finally, the GCL Twins will have Diaz and Barrie, which could be explosive. Rainis Silva will be catching and this team will also be getting 2015 draftees and other players from the DSL.
     
    In sum, the Twins position player prospect situation is now a lot different than was pre-2014. The system is now top-heavy for the first time in ages (probably the Mauer-Morneau-Cuddyer days). There is both star potential and depth in AA, with mainly only star potential at the lower levels (for now).
     
    This concludes the two-part look at Twins prospects. I think there are a lot of names here to follow and readers can try to combine the two lists into one super one if they so desire!
  15. Shane Wahl
    Left-handed pitching is something that is an anomaly in professional sports. Well, it's an anomaly all the way down really to youth sports. When talking about straight up natural facts about one's person without any nurturing, only height for basketball seems to compare to the importance of left-handed pitching in baseball. With that in mind, I thought it would be appropriate to give a full Twins-system view of almost all of the viable left-handed pitchers and what they do across the various levels of the system for the Twins.
     
    Twins:
     
    There are three guaranteed lefties for the Twins out of the gates in April, and all three of them are in the bullpen. It isn't a totally common thing to have three lefties in a team's bullpen, but when one of them is the closer it changes the bullpen's dynamic. It is still a good idea to have two lefties for situations in innings 6-8.
     
    Glen Perkins is an all-star closer. Born 3-2-83, he is in his prime as a closer. Perkins has dominated as a closer or the most part and should be fine for 2015.
     
    Brian Duensing will be back with the Twins for some reason. Born 2-22-83, he is a middle reliever who should be a LOOGY. He will be paid $2.7 million to serve as a hopefully adequate MR or setup man. Duensing was good as a reliever in 2013, but that was not the case in 2014. He was quite lucky, with a ERA/FIP discrepancy of 3.31/4.51. He doesn't strike many out and walks way too many.
     
    Caleb Thielbar is a middle reliever. Born 1-31-87, he is clinging on to a spot in the Twins bullpen even though he seems to be better than Duensing. His FIP from 2014 was 3.40 and his ERA from 2015 was 3.40! His actual ERA from 2015 was 3.54. This is probably his ceiling.
     
    Twins/Rochester:
     
    Tommy Milone is likely going to be the fifth starter for the Twins in April. Born 2-16-87, he has the potential to fit quite nicely at the back end of the Twins rotation. He could also be traded.
     
    Logan Darnell will need to focus on being a relief pitcher. Born 2-2-89, it seems as though Darnell finally settled in to present himself as a legitimate pitcher. He does not really project to start, however. Time will tell here.
     
    Aaron Thompson has come around to have a nice shot at a spot in the short-term for the Twins. Born 2-28-87, he has worked his way into LOOGY contention.
     
    Rochester:
     
    Ryan O'Rourke had a breakout year. Born 4-30-88, he posted an 11.5 k/9 in AA in 2014. He was absolutely dominant against lefties. He is what the Twins should want as a LOOGY instead of Duensing or Thielbar.
     
    Taylor Rogers is ready to compete for the show. Born 12-17-90, his k/9 grew to 7.0 in 2014 upon advancement to AA. He will start and continue to develop his pitches. He probably could move to the bullpen and be the best lefty other than Perkins right now.
     
    Jason Wheeler has successfully advanced methodically through the system. Born 10-27-90, he is a poor man's Taylor Rogers, but that still might be good enough.
     
    Pat Dean has one shot to save his career and that is to move to the bullpen. Born 5-25-89, he is no longer a good starting option, but could find his groove as a reliever.
     
    Chattanooga:
     
    Mason Melotakis will be lost for the 2015 due to Tommy John surgery in October. Born 6-28-91, he still has a bright future as a reliever with good velocity. The prospects for starting are dimming.
     
    Steven Gruver still has a chance as a reliever. Born 6-30-89, he will need a good year to remain in contention.
     
    David Hurlbut had a down year in 2014. Born 11-24-89, he needs to get the strikeouts back up to respectability (career 6.8 K/9 after a low 4.8 in 2014).
     
    Brett Lee continues to succeed even though he doesn't really strike anybody out. He does very well with men on base. Born 9-20-90, he will keep getting a look as a starter for now.
     
    Corey Williams will return after injury looking to get his career back on track. Born 7-4-90, this is a huge year for Williams to re-insert himself as a top-5 lefty relief prospect in the system.
     
    Fort Myers:
     
    Mat Batts could be a breakout candidate for 2015. Born 7-6-91, the lefty has a career 9.57 k/bb ratio in 60+ innings.
     
    Brandon Bixler can be a strikeout machine. Born 12-31-91, he will need to get command and reduce the walks to succeed.
     
    Josue Montanez gained a lot by returning to Cedar Rapids in 2014. Born 1-15-92, he has proved that he should advance to A+ ball, but he needs to keep the walks down.
     
    Cedar Rapids:
     
    Stephen Gonsalves could move to Fort Myers at some point this season. Born 7-8-94, his velocity could continue to rise as he gets stronger.
     
    Lewis Thorpe has shown that he is ready for a full season of pitching, if he is healthy. Born 11-23-95, the Aussie should get more innings progressively over the next few years to build towards a shot at the Show.
     
    Randy Rosario will be pitching early in 2015 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. Born 5-18-94, he could fly up prospect lists with a solid season in A-ball.
     
    Cameron Booser has lights-out potential. Born 5-4-92, he could move quickly through the system.
     
    Sam Clay struck out 13.7 batters per 9 innings last year. Born 6-21-93, he also walked 5.3 per 9 as well.
     
    GCL/Elizabethon:
     
    Onas Farfan is a local guy drafted in the 21st round last year. Born 6-23-93, he will have to work on his command to succeed.
     
    Brandon Easton made big improvements in his second professional season. Born 9-21-92, he should be in Elizabethon working as a starter.
     
    Michael Theofanopoulos will face stiffer competition in 2015. Born 8-5-92, he should get work both in the rotation and out of the bullpen.
     
    Jadison Jimenez has spent the past three season in the DSL and will move forward to the GCL. Born 3-19-94, he has demonstrated consistent improvement.
     
    Other potential contributors are Wil Ledezma (AAA), Seth Wagner (GCL), and Reyson Zoquiel (GCL), but they might not perform well enough to remain in the organization.
     
    This makes for twenty-seven lefties in the organization. A lot of the best of them are down in Cedar Rapids, but there are some solid pitchers sprinkled up and down.
  16. Shane Wahl

    25 man roster 2015

    By Shane Wahl,

    Unlike any year in recent memory, I believe at this point in mid-December, the Twins likely are done with any meaningful acquistions that could contend for the 25 man roster. I just don't see the gaping roster hole that would make for a constant concern in the coming months. Sure, the Twins could sign another pitcher, another OF, and another catcher, but none of these potential signings seem vital to the health of the team. The starting rotation is finally in a position of surplus with an actual mix of pitchers vying for the 5th spot in the rotation who all have upside. This hasn't been the case for a very long time for this team. The bullpen is deeply crowded, especially with potential overflow from those starting contenders. The OF is going to consist of Torii Hunter, Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Jordan Schafer, Chris Herrmann, Daniel Ortiz, and Danny Santana as a backup to that as the starting shortstop (with Eduardo Nunez in the mix too). As far as catching goes, the Twins bought into Kurt Suzuki and have Josmil Pinto to be a backup for the time being. Eric Fryer manages to maintain his presence. Herrmann adds depth there if they just give him the chance. And Stuart Turner is waiting in the wings (Sept. callup perhaps).
     
    So the Twins are looking at something like:
     
    Santana, SS
    Mauer, 1B
    Hunter, LF (still believing in this move to LF)
    Vargas, DH
    Dozier, 2B
    Arcia, RF
    Plouffe, 3B
    Suzuki/Pinto, C
    Hicks, CF
     
    With some combination of Suzuki/Pinto, Escobar, Schafer/Herrmann/Ortiz, Nunez/Romero/Beresford also serving as bench players.
     
    The pitchers:
     
    Hughes
    Santana
    Gibson
    Nolasco
    Milone/Meyer/May
     
    Milone/Meyer/May
    Darnell/Thielbar
    Tonkin
    Achter/Oliveros
    Duensing (apparently)
    Fien
    Perkins
  17. Shane Wahl

    From 2014 Blueprint

    By Shane Wahl,

    I wrote:
     
    Sign Ervin Santana for a 5 year, $85 million deal.
    Sign Phil Hughes to a 3 year, $39 million deal.
     
    I really believed this to be a great idea. And many of you did too. While there is some cherry-picking of that blueprint and what the Twins have done, clearly, I have to admit that with regard to the pitching rotation, the Twins have done very well. Better than me, with regard to free agents.
     
    I just wrote that last sentence. And meant it.
  18. Shane Wahl
    This is not going to be significantly different than the earlier version mid-season, but here is my hopeful 25-man roster for 2015. This will obviously hint at my offseason blueprint.
     
    Position players:
     
    Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Danny Santana, Miguel Sano, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Kennys Vargas, Chris Herrmann, Jordan Schafer
     
    Pitchers:
     
    Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Ricky Nolasco, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Deolis Guerra/AJ Achter, Lester Oliveros, Cole Johnson, Caleb Thielbar, Casey Fien, Glen Perkins (probably keeping May as the sixth man, but also using in strikeout-is-needed 6th and 7th inning situations. The Santana signing is wishful, especially at either 2/36 or 3/42.
     
    I am clearly already trading Brian Duensing, Michael Tonkin, and Anthony Swarzak for anything I can get. I am cutting ties with Mike Pelfrey because I am not bothering with wasting a roster spot for him anymore.
     
    I would then look to trade Suzuki, Escobar, and Fien at some point in 2015. Nothing big, but just adding some talent to the farm system.
     
    Replacing them would be Byron Buxton (Pinto/Herrmann duo behind the plate), James Beresford, and Nick Burdi.
     
    This is just how I would do things right now. It might change, especially with injuries and other reports from the offseason.
  19. Shane Wahl
    Coming into this year, there was hope that some prospects would "graduate" and move up to the Twins causing significant impact. Their names were Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, and Byron Buxton. 2014, then, would be a year of significant development in the rebuilding process.
     
    Sano was done for the entire season after Tommy John surgery. Buxton was up and down with injuries before a concussion ended his season (though he is going to the AFL). Meyer was inconsistent at times and, well, that is apparently enough for the Twins to keep him down in AAA. Given this story for these three players, it is hard to imagine how any kind of "prospect story" could unfold for the Twins in 2014, but it did.
     
    Dating back to 2011, I have rated Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas in my prospect lists, with Santana ranging from the low 30s to 15 going into 2014, and Vargas from around 50 to 16 going into 2014. In doing so, I had believed that both were going to be likely MLB contributors, at least for some time. Santana's speed and potential ability to stick at short guaranteed him a chance to make it. Vargas has tremendous power and a good overall bat and this would lead him to making the Twins eventually.
     
    I did not expect both of them to make this kind of impact, and certainly not this soon.
     
    Santana has been undeniably impressive with that bat, but also with his shift to CF, a position he hadn't really played since 2011 in Beloit. CF was always just an additional position that he could fit into given his speed and defensive ability. Coming into 2014, it actually looked like Santana was destined for second base, a position that is pretty much locked down now by Brian Dozier and his 20/20 capacity. For Santana to be playing CF and SS while posting a line of .320/.358/.475 (.832) in 360 plate appearances. He has 19 doubles, 6 triples, and 7 homers, while walking 17 times, striking out 73 times, and stealing 15 out of 19 bases. These numbers dwarf the .273/.317/.391 (.708) career minor league numbers, though the extra base hits and K/BB numbers are not that out of whack. He is simply making better contact and getting more singles. Some of this might have to do with the development of smart two-strike hitting, but that is only speculation on my part.
     
    Note the title of this article as for 2015. The long term role for Santana beyond that is not under speculation. Maybe he doesn't work out defensively at short and yet his bat requires a position somewhere. 3B, LF, and RF, might be further positions to add to his repertoire. This problem has always been there, but it is a good thing that he has returned to playing CF.
    Vargas is locked in as a DH and 1B. In 162 plate appearances he has produced a .303/.321/.493 (.814) line. He has smacked 8 doubles and homers, while walking 4 times and striking out 40 times. Rest assured this K/BB rate is nowhere near his career minor league rate that is basically 1/2 instead of 1/10. Unlike Santana, Vargas isn't drastically over performing his career minor league numbers. The offense for Vargas is legitimate and sustainable. It will be interesting to see if he can improve defensively enough to be an actual backup first baseman behind Mauer. I would imagine that he can do so given his desire to learn and adapt.
     
    Santana and Vargas have been great surprises this season and serve as a solid foundation with Mauer and Dozier as we wait for the other prospects to arrive.
  20. Shane Wahl
    I am recalibrating some of my thoughts for 2015. I think (now) that something like this should happen:
     
    I would like the following to happen: the Twins refrain from spending big this offseason unless it is on one of the top 5 pitching free agents. So, no spending to replace LF. Wait and save. That means that money should be SAVED now in order to be spent when NEEDED when the team is competitive for real. Just finally, finally, go with the youth movement.
    2015 opening day roster barring trades and injuries but dealing/releasing where noted (and I don't care about my consistency over the past month!):
    C: Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann
    1B: Mauer, Vargas
    2B: Dozier (Escobar, Santana, Beresford)
    SS: Escobar (Santana, Beresford)
    3B: Plouffe (Escobar, Beresford)
    LF: Hicks (yes, Hicks), (Ortiz, Herrmann)
    CF: Santana (until Buxton, then decisions need to be made), (Hicks)
    RF: Arcia (Ortiz, Herrmann, Hicks)
    DH: Vargas, (Pinto)
    Bench (generally): Pinto, Herrmann, Beresford, Ortiz
    Yep. Gone from this are Parmelee, Nunez, and Schafer. Trade for C level prospects who are under 22 and that is a win. All three of those guys could serve as major league bench players, but not for the Twins now.
    Starting rotation:
    Hughes
    Gibson
    Nolasco
    Meyer (or Milone)
    May (or Milone)
    Bullpen:
    I still would like some trading to be done as there is just no reason to pay Swarzak and Duensing any more money, for instance. Also, I am surprised Fien wasn't dealt, but for these purposes we will keep him.
    Perkins
    Fien
    C. Johnson
    Oliveros
    Tonkin
    Thielbar
    Deduno/Darnell/K. Johnson
    I also think Guerra and Achter could compete here. The big question is going to be: when do Burdi and Z. Jones arrive? Those two will serve as dominant setup men (and there needs to be another dominant lefty somewhere).
     
    I absolutely refuse to believe that this team as is won't be pretty good. That is, 80+ win good. I would like to see the Twins now develop the young talent, see who fits and who doesn't and then spend quite lavishly eventually on where they need to do so.
     
    I am pushing some guys here who many people might not like: Herrmann, Ortiz, and Beresford. But I prefer promoting those guys then adding in guys of similar value from the top on down (good lord . . . the Twins and their 4th OF adventures). Also, these guys are clearly also not deprived of value if they get sent back down to AAA when Buxton and Sano arrive. In such a scenario, Hicks might become the 4th OF, Santana moves to short, Escobar super utilities, and Plouffe utilities.
     
    All in all, the rebuild is now close to full swing. Buxton, Sano, Rosario (where he fits, time will tell) Meyer, Burdi, and Z. Jones are the next wave.
  21. Shane Wahl
    Soon it will be time to consider who should be dropped and added to the Twins 40-man roster for next season. This time there could be more of an upheaval than normal as the Twins hopefully look to enter the next phase of the organization's rebuilding project.
     
     
    Some opening remarks
     
    I have to believe that the following players could or should be removed from the 40-man roster for next season:
     
    Jared Burton
    Sam Deduno
    Brian Duensing
    Edgar Ibarra
    Yohan Pino
    Anthony Swarzak
    Caleb Thielbar
     
    Eric Fryer
    Chris Colabello
    Pedro Florimon
    Eduardo Nunez/Chris Parmelee/Jordan Schafer
     
    I am sure that there are legitimate reasons for keeping each of these players except for Burton and likely Colabello. There are three lefty relievers in this group, but none of them are really overwhelming talents. Most of these players are getting on in age and there are a number of younger replacements waiting in the wings. The triple slash at the end would probably depend on what is valued most: a righty bat, a lefty bat, or speed.
     
     
    Supposing no new additions
     
    Let's suppose for now (because the speculation derails this entire issue) that the Twins do not add any free agents to compete for 40-man roster space (though James Shields or Ervin Santana could be nice additions). This is probably unlikely because it would seem that the Twins would add somebody but it doesn't really matter for now, especially since I am leaving one spot open.
     
     
    Two spots taken back
    Add Mike Pelfrey back from the 60-day DL (that ridiculous contract is going to mean he is involved somehow, likely as a long relief option replacing Deduno)
     
    Also keep in mind that the Twins might like to keep a spot open on the 40 man, so we are talking about adding nine players to the 40 man roster. Keeping one spot open makes sense for making waiver claims or other transactions without having to remove someone else already on the roster.
     
     
    Top eligible players for consideration
     
    Here are 21 players that I would say are the most likely to be considered as additions:
     
    A.J. Achter, Jason Adam, James Beresford, Sean Gilmartin, Niko Goodrum, Deolis Guerra, Tyler Jones, Cole Johnson, Mike Kvasnicka, Brett Lee, Aderlin Mejia, Alex Meyer, Levi Michael, Lester Oliveros, Danny Ortiz, Deibinson Romero, Eddie Rosario, Adrian Salcedo, Miguel Sano, Jason Wheeler, and Alex Wimmers
     
    Sano, Rosario, and Meyer are locks, so this knocks it down to six of the remaining 18 players. I think that some of these players are quite safe from being taken in the rule 5 due to either age, level, or performance issues (or both/all). They are: Goodrum, Kvasnicka, and Mejia. Another group that would seem to be safe would be Beresford, Lee, Michael, Salcedo, Wheeler, and Wimmers. The first group are players with glaring issues to be worked out and the second group, while having some big names, just doesn't have anyone who I would think teams would use for a 25-man roster spot for the season. Salcedo and Wimmers could be exceptions, but that would be pretty risky for teams to stick them in the bullpen for an entire season.
     
     
    Who's left?
     
    There are then nine players left to consider: Achter, Adam, Gilmartin, Guerra, Johnson, Jones, Oliveros, Ortiz, and Romero. The Twins are likely going to just risk Romero again and not worry if he gets selected. He is a good hitter, but is behind Plouffe and Sano right now. I also think that the Twins keeping Tyler Jones in Fort Myers will keep him safe as teams would be shy from taking that risk. There are then seven players to consider. On the Johan Santana trade principle, I think the Twins protect Guerra and give him a rotation spot trial in spring training. A.J. Achter, then, is the most likely candidate to be risked since the Twins seemingly don't like him all that much.
     
     
    The Nine
     
    The nine players that I see the Twins adding are Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, Eddie Rosario, Sean Gilmartin, Danny Ortiz, Lester Oliveros, Cole Johnson, Deolis Guerra, and Jason Adam. There are two super prospects and one very good prospect. Gilmartin and Adam are solid 6th starter options who are still young and could improve. Ortiz is a 4th OF candidate for the Twins and for other teams, and the Twins cannot afford to lose any more OF prospects at the moment. Guerra is Johan trade material and on that principle alone should get a chance to replace a Jared Burton. Oliveros and Johnson (lefty) are striking people out this year and should be making the team out of spring training to replace Swarzak and Duensing.
     
    Personally, I like Beresford and Romero and would rather risk relievers, but I am trying to provide a balance here between what I would do and what the Twins will likely do.
     
     
    Conclusion
     
    I think this leaves the Twins in a good position. This would make for 39 players on the roster and sheds some aging replacement level players for actual prospects and actual young minor leaguers who could move up prospect lists. Lester Oliveros and Cole Johnson could join Michael Tonkin in anchoring the bullpen with Fien and Perkins (leaving Guerra and Pelfrey to fill the bullpen out). Sano, Meyer, and Rosario are close enough to not worry about option years at all. Danny Ortiz is a viable 4th OF option. Gilmartin and Adam provide depth for the starting rotation.
     
    There will be more changes coming if players like Byron Buxton, Nick Burdi, and J.O. Berrios emerge next season, but I think this provides a nice framework for understanding how the 40-man roster could shape up in the offseason.
  22. Shane Wahl
    Joe Mauer's first season as a first baseman has been a major disappointment. Not only did he not hit well, he was also injured for a month and has proved to be barely above replacement value at first base. I do think that 2015 and 2016 will mean a return to about career averages for Mauer. Now, let's actually consider what this could mean for the Twins:
     
    Insert Mauer's .320/.401/.461 line into the second spot of the order for the next two seasons. Next envision about the latter 75% of this time with this supporting cast: Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Kennys Vargas, Brian Dozier, Oswaldo Arcia, Josmil Pinto, Danny Santana, and Aaron Hicks.
     
    Buxton, CF
    Mauer, 1B
    Sano, 3B
    Vargas, DH
    Dozier, 2B
    Arcia, RF
    Pinto, C
    Santana, SS
    Hicks, LF
     
    Buxton is going to be in scoring position a lot for Mauer, and the hit and run potential is clearly there. Aside from that, Mauer's OBP in from of Sano, Vargas, and Dozier is going to be huge.
  23. Shane Wahl
    The Twins have done some interesting things in promoting certain players like Santana, Vargas, and Polanco this year. I think the first two guys might be with the club out of the gate next year as well.
     
    I would predict the following roster out of ST, barring injuries:
     
    C: Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann
    1B: Mauer, Vargas, Parmelee
    2B: Dozier, Escobar
    SS: Santana, (Escobar)
    3B: Plouffe (Escobar)
    LF: Parmelee, (Herrmann)
    CF: Hicks, (Santana)
    RF: Arcia, (Parmelee), (Herrmann), (Colabello)
    DH: Colabello, (Pinto) (Vargas), (Arcia)
     
    A quick call for James Beresford, Danny Ortiz, and Dan Rohlfing (or Matt Koch)
     
    Longer term replacements in Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and Stuart Turner
     
    This produces a batting order against RH:
     
    Santana
    Mauer
    Arcia
    Vargas
    Dozier
    Parmelee
    Plouffe
    Suzuki
    Hicks
     
    And against LH:
     
    Santana
    Dozier
    Mauer
    Vargas
    Plouffe
    Pinto
    Colabello
    Parmelee
    Hicks
     
    Colabello could be replaced by someone like Danny Ortiz or a free agent signing.
     
     
    The starting rotation:
     
    Hughes
    Gibson
    May
    Nolasco
    Milone
     
    Meyer, Gilmartin, and Darnell a quick call away.
     
    Bullpen:
     
    (Hopefully the Twins shed Burton, Swarzak and Deduno, and find some value in trading Duensing and Fien)
     
    Pressly
    Thielbar
    Achter
    Oliveros
    X pitcher (Pryor, Guerra, Ibarra, etc.)
    Tonkin
    Perkins
  24. Shane Wahl
    Making prospect lists can be difficult. When evaluating players across 7 different minor league teams and various foreign backgrounds, it is a challenge to weigh floor, ceiling, age, and established progress through the system.
     
    I wanted to provide an updated list of Twins prospects. I also thought I would not take the easy way out and just list half of all the good or good-ish minor leaguers in the Twins system (which is what the "top 70" list comes down to!).
     
    I try to balance out younger high-ceiling types (in the Twins case, this means mostly pitchers from ages 18-20+) and guys who have advanced and are real potential contributors in the show in the next year or two.
    This has obviously been difficult for me to get this list down to 50, so keep that in mind before judging me. But judge away.
     
    First a couple of notes: Danny Santana has graduated and Nate Roberts has been released.
     
    1. Byron Buxton, CF
     
    Buxton is still no. 1 and is still going to be the Twins starting CF by September 2015. He is a legit 30/30 kind of threat, though it could be more like 20/40.
    2. Miguel Sano, 3B
     
    I don't see any real reason to worry (more) about his future at third base given the injury. The man works hard and should be fine. I have to imagine a promotion to the Twins after the All-Star break in 2015.
    3. Alex Meyer, SP RH
     
    Given pitching injuries these days I think it is wiser to get stars like Meyer up fast. Well, this means he would get a turn in the bullpen cranking it up for about 15 innings for the Twins for the rest of the year, in my world, after a few more starts in Rochester (simply for innings).
    4. Jose Berrios, SP RH
     
    Speaking of getting stars to the Show early, Berrios isn't going to be 24 or 25 before he gets a taste. Berrios should finish with around 145 innings this year. Expect a full year at New Britain next year to build up everything and then I imagine 2016 is his year to arrive. Berrios could be a guy to get a lot of 5-6 inning treatment early in seasons to preserve him for those Octobers that are coming . . .
    5. Kohl Stewart, SP RH
     
    Stewart is really young to be pitching in Cedar Rapids. 2015 will be a year likely split between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers building innings (hopefully to 120 or so). Stewart could arrive in 2017 as another young pitcher quickly climbing the ranks.
    6. Jorge Polanco, SS/2B
    Polanco has already been a Twin for awhile this year and that, while strange, bodes well for his near future. He will struggle the rest of the year in New Britain and should spend 2015 there learning to play the shortstop position. We know he should be ready to contribute by 2016, so I would like the Twins to now be a little bit patient with his development instead of throwing him back with the Twins prematurely.
    7. Nick Gordon, SS
     
    Gordon jumped out of the gates strong in E-town but has come back down to earth. EST and E-Town again to start 2015, but I would think Gordon could see Fort Myers by 2016.
    8. Kennys Vargas, 1B
     
    Vargas just smacked his first homer for the Twins. I placed him on my original prospect list after the 2010 season in the 40s, I believe. He has been consistently rising on that list and now has fully arrived as a real middle of the order threat.
    9. Trevor May, SP RH
     
    May will be up pitching for the Twins on Saturday. And he deserves it. He can be a middle of the rotation innings eater. Hopefully the Twins stop making the mistake . . . and get May to the big leagues immediately.
    10. Eddie Rosario, OF/2B
     
    What an ordeal with this guy. I originally had him at 16 after his first season in 2010. He is not re-acclimating himself well to New Britain this year. There is no rush with him at the moment, other than a 40-man addition in November. He should be with the Twins at some point in 2015, but that really is up to him right now.
     
    11. Stephen Gonsalves, SP LH
     
    Gonsalves could be a top 8 prospect soon for the Twins and might be a top 5 prospect right now for half the teams in baseball. I think he will pretty much be on the same timeline as Kohl Stewart, though there are some innings to be pitched. I have to think that he splits time between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers next year.
    12. Nick Burdi, RP RH
     
    Burdi doesn't belong, at all, in Cedar Rapids. Hopefully he gets promoted to Fort Myers and will then contribute to the playoff run. It would make sense to do that and have someone dominant for the late innings. He should, without question, be the closer for New Britain next year.
    13. Lewis Thorpe, SP LH
    There is no reason to not like Thorpe's 2014 season right now. He turns 19 in three and a half months and his striking batters out at a rate of more than nine per inning in A ball. Not the GCL or that E-Town nonsense. A ball. He isn't going to start anywhere but Cedar Rapids next year building innings, with a possible promotion to Fort Myers to work out of the bullpen to keep the innings down some. This guy could actually arrive in 2017 at some point. This would mean the possibility of Gibson, Meyer, May, Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves, and Thorpe being legitimate starting pitchers in 2017.
     
    14. Travis Harrison, 1B/LF
     
    Harrison is rounding out as a pretty good hitter, though the power has dropped this year. He has good plate discipline and has really cut down on the whiffs this year, even after advancing a level. He is not going to last at 3B, is sorta not tall enough for 1B, and the bat amounts to being pretty weak in the corners. The Twin have to view Harrison as a prime trade candidate.
     
    15. Adam Walker, RF
     
    Power isn't everything, but man Walker has a lot. He doesn't walk enough, strikes out too much, and has bad contact rates, but he still smashes the baseball. 2015 full season in New Britain, I would have to imagine. It's interesting how the Twins treat him. He is the clearest position player trade candidate after Travis Harrison, in my view.
     
    16. Michael Tonkin, RP RH
     
    Tonkin was a victim of the Twins obsession with pitchers like Matt Guerrier, Jared Burton, and Anthony Swarzak. He should fit in nicely as a setup man for Perkins in 2015.
     
    17. Michael Cederoth, P RH
     
    As a starter, Cederoth is a very good prospect. As a reliever he would drop some. He has been solid at E-Town starting right now.
     
    18. Zach Jones, RP RH
    He's back this year, finally. He should be setting up Burdi in New Britain next year and the duo should be sickly dominant.
     
    19. Fernando Romero, SP RH
     
    Romero's value as a starter is tremendous. If he can stay healthy and stay starting, he will jump up this list fast.
     
    20. Max Kepler, OF/1B
     
    Still only 21.5 years old, he is on the 40-man (a bad decision, but that is another matter). He could really benefit from another season starting in Fort Myers before moving to New Britain. The BB/K rate is good enough, but the power is lacking right now. He also has trouble getting hits. I do like patience with Kepler, but the time is 2015 for him to break out or fall further down this list.
     
    21. Felix Jorge, SP RH
    Jorge is another one of those 20ish pitchers who will need to prove it fully in A ball. He has a really high ceiling.
    22. A.J. Achter, RP RH
     
    A very underappreciated reliever, Achter should have already gotten a chance with the Twins. Hopefully he will be a Twin in 2015.
     
    23. Sean Gilmartin, SP LH
     
    The lefty is still fairly young and he should work on striking batters out in AAA next year before filling in as a spot starter for the Twins (instead of Pino, Deduno, and Johnson, at least)
     
    24. Daniel Ortiz, OF
     
    I am bumping my adopted prospect up this far because I do think that he has progressed consistently to warrant a real shot at the 4th OF spot on the Twins roster in 2015. He doesn't take walks, but the overall hitting is basically Arcia-light.
     
    25. Tyler Duffey, SP RH
     
    I like the K/BB rate a lot. He should legitimately deserve a AAA spot next year to start the season. Duffey is a success story for the Twins strategy of drafting relievers out of college to convert to the starting rotation.
     
    26. Niko Goodrum, 3B/SS
     
    I keep Niko up in the top 30, but much like Kepler, he is going to have to start showing more at the plate. He can swipe bases and can probably handle himself on the left side of the infield. Another potential FTM/NB split candidate for 2015.
     
    27. Yorman Landa, P RH
     
    Moved to the bullpen for the time being and his K rate jumped dramatically while the walk rate stayed the same (too high).
    28. Amaurys Minier, 1B/OF
     
    He's 18.5 years old and now starting to excel in the GCL. Good power potential, but the Twins will likely let him take his time and he will likely be in E-Town next year.
    29. Lester Oliveros, RP RH
     
    He's been in the minors for a long time, but the strikeouts can't be ignored. Another very good setup man candidate for next year.
     
    30. Mitch Garver, C
     
    Garver has been fantastic for Cedar Rapids this year. It isn't at all clear why he isn't already in Fort Myers. His time at 1B and DH this year has really been about keeping his bat in the lineup when he isn't catching. The Twins have a potential starting catcher right here. It would be nice to see him in AA at some point next season.
    31. Aderlin Mejia, SS/UTIL
    My adoptees get bumped on my list because it is my list. That said, I actually like Mejia and think that he could be a super utility player down the road. The bat is still a work in progress, but he is young. He has walked more than he has struck out so far this year and has good speed.
    32. Levi Michael, 2B/SS
    Michael has quietly stuck around on this list, and I might actually have him too low here. His hit tool has caught up with his plate discipline this year and he is starting to master A-ball. He will be in AA next year and then we will see what he is made of. It is too early, still, to write him off.
    33. Deibinson Romero, 3B/1B
    I have always liked Romero. He is going to be 28 soon, but he has now put up two near identical seasons in AAA, posting a combined .793 OPS in 793 plate appearances. He is mashing doubles and has excellent plate discipline. He is not a good defensive third baseman, but can serve as an adequate 3B/1B/DH type to fill in if Trevor Plouffe is injured or traded, and if Miguel Sano's arrival is still a bit away.
    34. Jason Kanzler, OF
    Kanzler turns 24 soon, so his solid play in Cedar Rapids should be taken with a grain of salt. The initial results from Fort Myers are good, however. He strikes out a lot and doesn't walk very much. He has very good speed and adequate pop.
    35. Randy Rosario, SP LH
     
    The verdict is still out on Rosario, and his K/BB rate is ugly in very limited time this year.
     
    36. Dalton Hicks, 1B
     
    He was fairly bad to start the season, but has hit very well in the past month. Decent pop, but he is very blocked behind Mauer and Vargas right now.
     
    37. James Beresford, INF
     
    Beresford is still hanging around. He is very similar to Deibinson Romero in that he has replicated his AAA numbers from a year ago. It's unfortunate that he doesn't have good speed. He has developed some doubles pop this year, which will help his case. He is really a classic utility infielder type and if the Twins decide to shop Escobar, Beresford could step in easily.
     
    38. Stuart Turner, C
     
    Turner has me eating some crow. I was not sold on him when the Twins drafted him, but he has been fine at the plate in Fort Myers, which is somewhat surprising.
     
    39. Taylor Rogers, SP LH
     
    Rogers really has me eating some crow. I had whined about his K rate, but he has improved upon advancing to AA. He is giving up a lot more hits, however. He should return to AA in 2015 to work on lowering that.
    40. Aaron Slegers, SP RH
     
    Slegers is doing better than I expected. He doesn't walk many and his strikeout numbers are respectable. He seems to be giving up some untimely hits, but he is already at AA. He'll start there again in 2015.
    41. Tyler Jones, RP RH
     
    He'll be 25 soon and the strikeouts have dropped some this year in Fort Myers. He will be setting up in 2015 in AA.
     
    42. Adrian Salcedo, RP RH
     
    Still around and his ERA this year is a bit misleading. He is only 23.5 and should settle in to the bullpen role again nicely in AA in 2015. He could emerge as a frontrunner for promotion to the Twins in 2015 at some point though.
     
    43. Cole Johnson, RP LH
     
    Johnson is combining a great K rate with a great BB rate, and as a lefty this could mean fast-tracking to the big leagues in what must be the coming post-Duensing, post-Thielbar era.
     
    44. Chad Christensen, OF/1B
     
    A potential 4th OF/1B utility player. He has excellent speed and is doing well in Cedar Rapids. Fort Myers, next year, will be a good test.
     
    45. Max Murphy, OF
     
    Murphy dominated E-Town before being promoted to Cedar Rapids. Good power and speed. Will be at Cedar Rapids for 2015.
     
    46. Brandon Peterson, RP RH
    Obliterated Cedar Rapids and was quickly moved to Fort Myers. It's been more of the same there. Could totally fly up this list in 2015.
    47. Alex Wimmers, RP RH
     
    There was no way I was leaving Wimmers off, since he has been on this list since my first one after the 2010 season. The move to the bullpen could save his career. Should be there at AAA in 2015.
    48. J.D. Williams, OF
     
    Williams has not been good this year after the strange assignment back to Cedar Rapids after last year's promotion to Fort Myers. I don't understand that decision. Hopefully he can turn it around in 2015 and hopefully that happens in Fort Myers this time!
    49. Todd Van Steensel, RP RH
     
    Completely dominated at Cedar Rapids. He is now at Fort Myers and is going to start there in 2015.
     
    50. Chih-Wei Hu, SP RH
     
    He has been nothing but very solid the past two seasons. He has made it to Cedar Rapids and is doing well. The project is going to have to be to build innings pitched between now and the end of 2016.
     
    Honorable Mentions: Logan Darnell, Kuo Hua Lo, Jake Reed, Dereck Rodriguez (now pitching), Jared Wilson, John Curtiss, Sam Clay, Pat Kelly
  25. Shane Wahl
    It is now time to start thinking about proper roster movements in considering the Twins in 2015 and how to best position the team for an actual productive season next year. This involves September call-ups and Arizona Fall League decisions. I submit the following:
     
    1. Josmil Pinto and Chris Herrmann should be back up with the team. Both have now smacked AAA pitching. Hopefully for Eric Fryer's sake, the Twins will have traded Suzuki by this time. Otherwise, there is just no reason to have him around.
     
    2. Kennys Vargas up for a tryout. Vargas is still going to need some more minor league seasoning, but he is on the 40-man, has great power, and deserves a nice paycheck.
     
    3. James Beresford added to 40-man and called up. The Twins have about a dozen guys on the 40-man to be removed via trade or designation. Beresford provides good infield depth.
     
    4. Aaron Hicks back in the house. Hopefully, Hicks is promoted to AAA in August and then comes up for the Twins in September. The time in AA was the boost he needed. The overall talent is enormous. He is getting his slugging back now and needs another taste of the big leagues.
     
    5. A.J. Achter, Deolis Guerra, Michael Tonkin, and Lester Oliveros. These guys need to come up and get a chance to show themselves. It would be nice to have traded Fien, Duensing, and Swarzak by September first. Add in Jared Burton's necessary departure and there is the room here.
     
    6. Trevor May and Alex Meyer. Good lord. May needs to be starting for the Twins now and Meyer can probably ease in in September in a relief role for awhile.
     
    7. AFL: send Byron Buxton, Nate Roberts, Levi Michael, Cole Johnson, Tyler Duffey, and Mason Melotakis. One of those guys is a guaranteed player, the other five need more testing.
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