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Shane Wahl

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Blog Entries posted by Shane Wahl

  1. Shane Wahl
    The Twins will start making their second round of minor league moves in the next few weeks leading up to the draft and the beginning of the short season. Here are some moves that should be made sooner than later:
     
    ROCHESTER
    Release: Joe Thurston and Clete Thomas (neither one is worth keeping around, stealing plate appearances from players who are either prospects or who could be fill-ins for the Twins in a pinch). I am tired of keeping around such players for no good reason. Why don't they sign Jeff Bailey and Chase Lambin to mess around for a year again?
     
    NEW BRITAIN to ROCHESTER
     
    Filling in for those two departures should be Deibinson Romero and Wilkin Ramirez (Ramirez belongs in AAA in the first place, and Romero is off to a strong start in a bounce-back year for him).
     
    When I complain about the general slowness of Twins minor league promotions, Romero is the kind of player that comes to mind. 592 plate appearances at AA is enough for someone turning 26 in less than four months. He has 2200+ minors plate appearances right now, which is above average for about 3/4 of all systems for total plate appearances before promotion to MLB. In the era of Danny Valencia's struggles, it is time to see what someone like Romero can do when promoted to AAA.
     
    Ramirez is someone who still has upside. His major problem is his BB/K ratio, but he has some speed and some pop and can play everywhere in the OF.
     
    FORT MYERS to NEW BRITAIN
    Jairo Perez (and later, hopefully, Oswaldo Arcia). The Twins should probably hold off on Arcia and let him develop, but after 2011, I am curious how Perez would do when pushed, and he can fill in for Romero's vacant spot. Perez is still slugging and drawing walks this year, and that is a very good sign.
     
    Since Perez's defense has it's issues, the Twins may look to sign some younger available player, even from an independent league to join the squad in Chris Colabello fashion.
     
    This would allow Anderson Hidalgo to see if he can still hack it by playing 3B/DH more as well. He struggled early, but has hit well in the past few games, including a 6 rbi performance.
     
    And soon:
     
    BELOIT to FORT MYERS
     
    Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Matthew Koch. Not much needs to said here, but I really want to see if what happened to Oswaldo Arcia at Fort Myers happens to Sano and Rosario.
     
    Koch is a legitimate catching prospect and is 23 1/2 years old. I am also curious to see if he can hold his own in Fort Myers.
     
     
     
  2. Shane Wahl
    Standings:
     
    Purdue 14-4, 35-9
    Indiana 11-7, 24-24
    Michigan State 10-8, 29-16
    Minnesota 10-8, 28-22
    Penn State 10-8, 24-23
    Ohio State 11-10, 27-20
    Nebraska 9-9, 29-18
    Illinois 7-11, 19-24
    Michigan 6-12, 19-28
    Northwestern 5-16, 16-29
     
    Draft watch:
    Kevin Plawecki, C, Purdue
    .367/.460./.566, 17/2/4, 20/7, 2/5
    Draft projection: 2-3 rounds
     
    Eric Charles, 2B, Purdue
    .374/.443/.443, 10/1/0, 20/18, 15/18
    Draft projection: 20-24 rounds
     
    Cameron Perkins, 3B, Purdue
    .355/.395/.519, 12/0/6, 6/13, 8/10
    Drafted in 43rd round by Mariners in 2009 out of high school
    Draft projection: 25-29 rounds
     
    Nick Wittgren, RH RP, Purdue
    30.1, 2.08, 32/9
    Draft projection: 3-4 rounds
     
    Blake Mascarello, LH RP, Purdue
    54.0, 1.83, 37/8
    Draft projection: 30-35 rounds
     
    TJ Oakes, RH SP, Minnesota
    84.2, 1.70, 74/13
    Draft projection: 6-8 rounds
     
    Josh Scheffert, INF, Nebraska
    .363/.411/.615, 10/0/8, 10/18, 1/1
    Draft projection: 15-18 rounds
  3. Shane Wahl

    Big Ten Update

    By Shane Wahl,

    Current Big Ten standings:
    (Conference record, overall record)
     
    1. Purdue 12-3, 31-6
    2. Michigan State 7-5, 26-13
    Minnesota 7-5, 23-19
    4. Nebraska 8-7, 26-15
    5. Penn State 6-6, 18-21
    6. Indiana 6-6, 18-22
    7. Ohio State 7-8, 22-18
    8. Illinois 5-7, 22-17
    Iowa 5-7, 16-19
    10. Michigan 4-8, 17-24
    11. Northwestern 5-10, 13-23
     
    Standings summary: There are only 4 teams in the conference that could be called good. Purdue is well ahead of the pack.
     
    Top 5 Big Ten draft prospects:
     
    1. Kevin Plawecki, C, Purdue:
    140 AB, .357/.456/.564 16 doubles, 2 triples, 3 homers, 19 BB/6 K, 2 SB/5 SBA
     
    Plawecki is good defensively behind the plate (his pitchers trust him to call games and he has been very successful doing so, making plenty of average pitchers perform at a higher level). He is a great contact hitter but also has doubles power. The 19/6 BB/K ratio is perhaps most impressive.
     
    2. Nick Wittgren, RHR, Purdue:
    23 IP, 1.57 ERA, 26/6 K/BB
     
    Scouts will start to wander around the stadium in the middle of Purdue's Big 10 games, but when Wittgren comes in they sit down with their radar guns. Well above the other pitchers in the conference, he has the stuff to move to a starting role.
     
    3. Tony Bucciferro, RHS, Michigan State:
    68 IP, 3.04 ERA, 60/13 K/BB
     
    Bucciferro is a solid all-around pitcher. Not overpowering, but he has good enough strikeout potential and has improved in that area this year.
     
    4. Torsten Boss, 3B, Michigan State
    154 AB, .331/.448/.513, 12/2/4, 29/28, 9/9
     
    Boss is developing a balanced offensive game. Like Purdue's Cameron Perkins (honorable mention), may project to being a corner IF/OF util guy.
     
    5. Ryan Jones, 2B, Michigan State
    171 AB, .386/.447/.497, 9/2/2, 21/11, 6/7
     
    Great range defensively and is a very good contact hitter with some pop. With Plawecki, two of the hardest guys to strike out in the conference.
     
    Honorable mentions (Cameron Perkins, 3B, Purdue, and T.J. Oakes, RHS, Minnesota--drafted in 41st round by the Twins last year)
     
     
    No surprise that the top two teams in the conference dominate the top of the draft prospect ranks. With the two honorable mentions, I would not be shocked if these were the top 7 Big Ten players selected in the June draft.
  4. Shane Wahl
    This has been a few years in the making, and until now I have been completely against it because his value as a starter seemed so immense when he was on, but now it is time to move Francisco Liriano to the bullpen.
     
    Here are the reasons:
     
    1. Aside from 2010, he has been marginally good to pretty bad as a starter for the past 4+ seasons.
    2. Starters who move to the bullpen generally throw harder given that they are amped up for one or two innings as opposed to 6-9.
    3. Given 2, a 94-95 mph fastball coupled with a very good slider and good changeup would be devastating in high leverage situations.
    4. The Twins have an issue with the entire pitching staff and a great shaking up is needed.
    5. A Duensing-Liriano-Perkins LH bullpen provides great depth and situational value, (esp. in the playoffs which is where the Twins will be by 2013 if they make this move).
    6. Given 5, either Liriano or Perkins will emerge as the closer by the beginning of 2013 at the latest (the other will be the lefty setup man).
    7. Money. Moving Liriano immediately to the bullpen is going to make him cheaper to sign. Maybe he will be totally pissed and not want to play for the Twins . . . but then the Twins can given him more money (for his role, but along the lines of this year's salary) if this works out as expected (Perkins is signed already).
    8. The guy has talent but loses his head when starting. Something is visibly amiss. There is little reason to think that he won't be fairly dominant in this role.
    9. Given 8, let's remember something: Liriano in 2006 was fantastic . . . starting the season as a reliever and dominating. That confidence after dominating meant something for him as a starter. That confidence was shattered with his injury. This is the last chance to get that confidence and dominance back.
    10. I doubt the trade value is going to be on the Twins' side. No selling low of Francisco Liriano is acceptable.
     
    Hopefully this starts a good discussion.
  5. Shane Wahl
    Earlier this spring I listed 10 mid-lower tier prospects to watch this year as I expected breakout seasons from each of them. This is an update on eight of them (Nate Roberts is on the DL and Angel Mata is in extended spring training) as well as an introduction to two more players off to strong starts this season.
     
    BELOIT:
     
    JD Williams, OF (Age: 21.5, SH): Williams is off to a slow start with the bat, but is still getting on base. Stats: 26 AB, .115/.324/.154, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 7 BB, 8 K, 3 SB, 4 SBA.
     
    Tyler Grimes, IF (21.10, RH): Grimes is also starting slowly this year playing SS for the time being. Stats: 32, .188/.333/.313, 4/0/0, 4/5, 1/2.
     
    Tim Shibuya, RHS (22.8): Shibuya had a rough first outing, but got it together for 5 scoreless frames in his second start. Stats: 8.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 4 K, 3 BB.
     
    FORT MYERS:
     
    Danny Santana SS/2B (21.6, SH): Santana got off to a blazing start and has cooled somewhat. He has split time equally between SS and 2B. I still think his OBP is too weak to be at the top of the lineup. Stats: 48, .313/.327/.417, 2/0/1, 1/6, 2/4.
     
    Lance Ray, LF/RF (22.8, LH): Ray has started better than last season and is really slugging the ball so far. He has split time between the two corner outfield positions. Stats: 38, .237/.295/.500, 4/0/2, 4/11, 0/0.
     
    Matt Hauser, RHR (24.1): Hauser has been up and down so far, but has been OK after a poor first appearance. Stats: 7, 6.43 4/2.
    Pat Dean, LHS (22.11): Dean has started 2012 pretty well, though the strikeouts are not there yet. Stats: 11.2, 1.54, 6/2.
    Addition:
     
    A guy who was injured a significant portion of 2011 and whose prospect status dropped somewhat:
     
    Angel Morales, CF (22.5, RH): It is very good to see Morales hitting well early. He has been in CF exclusively, but that would likely change if he is promoted to New Britain, which should happen if he can trim his strikeout rate. Stats: 44, .409/.460/.545, 1/1/1, 5/12, 3/4.
     
    NEW BRITAIN:
     
    Logan Darnell, LHS (23.3): Darnell is picking up where he left off in 2011. Stats: 10, 0.90, 5/3.
     
    Addition:
     
    A guy losing momentum the past two seasons, but who has rebounded so far:
     
    Evan Bigley, RF (25.1, RH): Bigley is not on hardly any Twins prospect lists, even those extending to 50 players. He did have some promise a few years ago. This year he is starting strong. Stats: 45, .311/.360/.467 2/1/1, 4/7, 1/3.
     
  6. Shane Wahl

    Big Ten Roundup

    By Shane Wahl,

    This week I will focus on the in-conference games, discussing each series, and how some draft prospects performed.
    Minnesota vs. Northwestern:
    The Gophers swept the Wildcats 2-1, 2-1, and 6-0 in the weekend series. Friday's game featured the dominance of pitcher T.J. Oakes, who gave up 1 run in 8 1/3 innings pitched. He struck out 7 without giving up a walk. In the second game of the series, D.J. Snelten picked up where Oakes left off. Snelten went 7 2/3 innings, giving up only one run while striking out 5 and walking 3. Third baseman Dan Olinger went 1-4 with an rbi. For Northwestern, Brandon Magallones also pitched very well. He whiffed 7 in 8 1/3 innings, giving up two runs on 6 hits and one walk.In the final game, Olinger again went 1-4 with an RBI.
    Purdue vs. Illinois:
    The Boilermakers swept the Illini 3-0, 4-1, 5-3. In the series for Purdue, catcher Kevin Plawecki went 1-7 with 1 run and 3 walks. Eric Charles went 3-10 with 3 runs, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K and a double. Cameron Perkins also went 3-10 with a run, RBI, walk, and double. Stephen Talbott also went 3-10 with a walk. Nick Wittgren threw 2 1/3 innings, giving up a run and fanning one while issuing one free pass. Blake Mascarello pitched 3 innings and gave up an unearned run. Finally, Lance Breedlove pitched 7 2/3 innings, striking out 7 and walking 2.For Illinois, Jordan Parr went 4 for 12.
    Nebraska vs. Ohio State:
    Nebraska took two out of three, losing 10-2 before winning 5-4 and 17-9. For Nebraska, Michael Pritchard was 3-13 with 2 runs, 2 RBI and 2 BB. Chad Christensen was 2-14. Josh Desze was 7-16 with 3 doubles, 2 runs, and 2 RBI. Jaron Long was dominant in 9 innings, while giving up 2 runs with a 5/0 K/BB ratio.
    Indiana vs. Michigan State:
    IU lost 2 out of 3. Indiana won the first game 3-2 and then lost the next two 6-0 and somehow 20-10. Catcher Kyle Schwarber was 5-11 with 2 walks, a homer, double and triple. Sam Travis really struggled. He went 0-13 with 7 strikeouts. Matt Dearden went 1/3 of an inning and gave up three runs. For MSU, Jordan Keur went 6-14. Ryan Jones was 7-16 with 34 runs. Torsten Boss was 4-10. Tony Bucciferro pitched 7 2/3 innings, with 7 Ks and 4 BBs.
    Michigan vs. Penn State:
    Penn State took 2 out of 3, dropping the first game 7-3, but coming back with 14-1 and 6-4 victories. 1B Jordan Steranka was the star of the series, going bonkers with 3 homers, a triple, 6 runs, and 7 rbi on 6-13 hitting. Patrick Biondi drew four walks for the Wolverines in the series.
     
     
    Boilermakers Plawecki and Wittgren are still my top two ranked prospects in the conference, and two guys the Twins should definitely take a long look at. Plawecki is a great hitter and solid defensive catcher. Wittgren is closing now, but could make it as a starter with his mix of three pitches (92-93 mph fastball, mid-70s curve, and upper-70s changeup (which still needs work)).
  7. Shane Wahl
    Each week leading up to the MLB draft, I will be providing a roundup of how Big 10 teams fared and how notable players are doing. This player list is by no means exhaustive of all the potential draft candidates and there are likely some listed who will fizzle out, but this is a start.
     
    Purdue (4-0 week, 24-5 overall, 7-2 Big Ten, first place)
    Updated players-to-watch season stats:
     
    Kevin Plawecki, R, © Jr. :
    29 games, .373/.470/.618, EBH: 14/2/3, BB/K: 15/5, SB/SBA: 2/3
     
    Eric Charles, R, (2B) Sr.:
    28 games, .381/.455/.460, EBH: 7/1/0, BB/K: 14/10, SB/SBA: 12/13
     
    Cameron Perkins, R, (3B) Jr.:
    28 games, .388/.429/.545, EBH: 7/0/4, BB/K: 4/10, SB/SBA: 8/9
     
    Stephen Talbott, R, (LF) Jr.:
    28 games, .352/.364/.505, EBH: 3/5/1, BB/K: 2/18, SB/SBA: 10/12
     
    Nick Wittgren, RHP, Jr.:
    17 IP, 1.59 ERA, K/BB: 22/7
     
    Blake Mascarello, LHP, Sr.:
    35.2 IP, 2.52 ERA, K/BB: 30/6
     
    Lance Breedlove, RHP, Sr.:
    53 IP, 2.55 ERA, K/BB: 46/6
     
    Nebraska (3-1, 22-12, 5-4, tied for 2nd place):
    Michael Pritchard, L (OF) So.:
    33 games, .405/.469/.474, EBH: 8/0/0, BB/K: 13/7, SB/SBA: 4/7
     
    Chad Christensen, R (OF) Jr.:
    34 games, .353/.427/.568, EBH: 8/2/6, BB/K: 16/22, SB/SBA: 6/7
     
    Ohio State (4-1, 18-12, 5-4, tied for 2nd place):
    Josh Desze, R, (1B and RHP) So.:
    30 games, .315/.443/.468, EBH: 2/0/5, BB/K: 18/30, SB/SBA: ½
    13 IP, 3.46 ERA, K/BB: 8/10
     
    Jaron Long, RHP, So.:
    53.1 IP, 2.36 ERA, K/BB: 38/6
     
    Indiana (2-2, 14-18, 5-4, tied for 2nd place):
    Sam Travis, R, (1B) Fr.:
    32 games, .378/.476/.571, EBH: 11/0/4, BB/K: 21/16, SB/SBA: 2/3
     
    Kyle Schwarber, L, (C/OF) Fr.:
    32 games, .295/.389/.566, EBH: 10/4/5, BB/K: 18/14, SB/SBA: 7/9
     
    Matt Dearden, RHP, So.:
    26.2 IP, 2.36 ERA, K/BB: 20/6
     
    Minnesota (1-3, 17-16, 3-3, tied for 5th place):
    Dan Olinger, L (1B) So.:
    33 games, .358/.419/.433, EBH: 9/0/0, BB/K: 6/10, SB/SBA: 4/6
     
    Troy Larson, R, (IF/OF) Jr.:
    31 games, .327/.414/.376, EBH: 3/1/0, BB/K: 12/15, SB/SBA: 6/8
     
    TJ Oakes, RHP, Jr.:
    55.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, K/BB: 45/9
     
    DJ Snelten, LHP, So.:
    45.2 IP, 2.36 ERA, K/BB: 31/20
     
    Michigan State (3-2, 19-10, 3-3, tied for 5th place):
    Jordan Keur, R (OF) Jr.:
    29 games, .375/.469/.442, EBH: 8/0/0, BB/K: 15/17, SB/SBA: 6/11
     
    Ryan Jones, R, (2B) Jr.:
    29 games, .364/.414/.488, EBH: 6/2/2, BB/K: 12/9, SB/SBA: 5/6
     
    Torsten Boss, L (3B/RF) Jr.:
    29 games, .327/.440/.513, EBH: 7/1/4, BB/K: 21/19, SB/SBA: 8/8
     
    Tony Bucciferro, RHP, Sr.
    54.1 IP, 3.15 ERA, K/BB: 48/8
     
    Illinois (2-2, 17-12, 3-3, tied for 5th place):
    Jordan Parr, R (IF/OF), So.:
    29 games, .358/.410/.528, EBH: 5/2/3, BB/K: 8/14, SB/SBA 5/9
     
    Willie Argo, R (OF) Sr.:
    29 games, .356/.469/.413, EBH: 2/2/0, BB/K: 19/22, SB/SBA: 12/14
     
    Iowa (3-2, 13-16, 4-5, 8th place):
    Mike McQuillan L (2B) Sr.:
    29 games, .356/.489/.413, EBH: 4/1/0, BB/K: 23/18, SB/SBA: 8/10
     
    Michigan (3-1, 15-17, 2-4, tied 9th place):
    Patrick Biondi, L (OF) Jr.:
    32 games, .322/.457/.455, EBH: 9/2/1, BB/K: 21/20, SB/SBA: 19/25
     
    Michael O’Neill, R (OF), So.:
    29 games, .322/.362/.574, EBH: 9/1/6, BB/K: 3/14, SB/SBA: 15/18
     
    Penn State (5-0, 13-18, 2-4, tied 9th place):
    Jordan Steranka, L (1B) Sr.:
    31 games, .351/.380/.527, EBH: 11/0/4, BB/K: 6/27, SB/SBA: 0/1
     
    Northwestern (0-3, 10-18, 3-6, tied 9th place):
    Brandon Magallones, RHP, Fr.:
    42 IP, 3.86 ERA, K/BB: 44/16
  8. Shane Wahl
    Everyone knows to follow the progress of Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Oswaldo Arcia, Levi Michael, Hudson Boyd, Madison Boer and other top 20-25 prospects in the Twins system. There are many others, however, who with strong seasons could jump up into that top 20 range. Here are 10 of them (and thanks to Seth Stohs for roster information):
     
    JD Williams, OF (Age: 21.4, SH): Williams will start with Beloit this year after a fantastic showing at Elizabethon. Three words: Dude is fast. Last year's line of .324/.406/.465 was quite impressive. Primarily played RF last year. Will probably stay there. Williams has a high ceiling and could move quickly up the system after 2012.
     
    Nate Roberts, OF (23.1, LH): Roberts returns to the DL and to Beloit this season. While his on base numbers are gaudy, they are bolstered by being hit 29 times last year. Regardless, the .302/.443/.446 line is very impressive. The Twin likely want to get him healthy and get him a few hundred more plate appearances at low-A before promoting him to Fort Myers. He has played in left field, primarily.
     
    Lance Ray, OF (22.7, LH): Ray will be in Fort Myers this year. He started 2011 rather terribly, but came on strong the last 2/3 of the season to hit 16 homers and post a line of .253/.335/.432 for the season. He played about two-thirds of the season in right field, with most of the other third at first base. Like Joe Benson, the strikeout rate will be a thing to watch.
     
    Danny Santana, SS/2B/CF (21.5, SH): Santana will man the middle infield and may see some time again in CF for Fort Myers. He is a very good defensive player and is very fast. The big thing last year despite a mediocre .247/.298/.373 triple slash is that isolated power with 27 extra base hits (including 7 homers). He is defensively sound, so his bat will be the thing to watch.
     
    Tyler Grimes, SS/2B/3B (21.9, RH): Grimes will see the bulk of his time in the middle infield for Beloit, but may fill in at third for Sano as well. Like Roberts, his OBP was aided by 6 HBP in 159 plate appearances. While compiling a somewhat unimpressive .225/.316/.406, his college numbers at Wichita State are very good. He projects as a Luke Hughes 2B/3B guy down the road, but he also is fast and can steal bases.
     
    Matt Hauser, RHR (24): Hauser throws hard and could make his way from Fort Myers this year to New Britain as a closer at both levels. The key is health for him, because he can be a dominant pitcher when healthy.
     
    Pat Dean, LHS (22.10): Dean got people excited in 2010 with his 37/1 K/BB ratio in 29.1 innings. In 2011, he did well in Beloit with a 37/9 ratio in 44 innings, but struggled in Fort Myers after being promoted. He returns to Fort Myers and projects as either a Brian Duensing LOOGY type or a more rounded Glen Perkins type of reliever.
     
    Tim Shibuya, RHS (22.7): Shibuya was fantastic at Elizabethon last year and will start the season in Beloit in 2012. In 73.2 innings, he had 70 strikeouts and only 11 walks. The full season with better competition will be telling for Shibuya, but if he can work on his secondary pitches, he could be very successful.
     
    Logan Darnell, LHS (23.2): Darnell is a deceptive lefty who will be in the starting rotation at AA New Britain. He pitched at three levels in 2011 and his success is in his ability to induce groundballs and strike some people out with his deceptive delivery.
     
    Angel Mata, RHS (19.4): Mata will be in extended spring training this year and should then be in Elizabethon. He limits baserunners and if he improves his walk rate should be very effective. He is one of very few bottom level pitchers to get excited about in the Twins system.
  9. Shane Wahl
    The 25 man roster is coming into focus. Assuming that all of the relevant position players are healthy, one might wonder what the lineup is going to be and what it should be vs. RH and LH. I am not going to figure out what Gardy is planning on doing, but given the likely 25-man roster (Burroughs, not Butera) perhaps this is what they should be:
     
    vs. RH:
    1. Span (CF)
    2. Carroll (SS)
    3. Mauer ©
    4. Morneau (DH)
    5. Willingham (LF)
    6. Doumit (RF)
    7. Parmelee (1B)
    8. Valencia (3B)
    9. Casilla (2B)
     
    With Plouffe, Hughes, Burroughs, and Revere.
     
    vs. LH:
    1. Span (CF)
    2. Carroll (SS)
    3. Mauer © or Willingham (LF)
    4. Willingham (LF) or Valencia (3B)
    5. Valencia (3B) or Plouffe (RF)
    6. Plouffe (RF) or Doumit (C, DH)
    7. Doumit (C or DH)
    8. Hughes (1B or DH)
    9. Casilla (2B)
     
    With Mauer, Morneau, Burrroughs, and Revere.
  10. Shane Wahl
    There are few Twins prospects who frustrate Twins fans as much as Aaron Hicks. He was extremely highly regarded when he was drafted and he has not performed at the level he was expected to, even at a young age. But upon examining Hicks in more detail, it seems clear that people need to hold off on the criticism--he's about right where he needs to be and there is a recent precedent for a breakout career.
     
    Aaron Hicks: switch hitter, 6'2", 185, DOB: 10/2/89 (Age: 22.5)
    Aaron Hick minor league statistics:
    2008: GCL: 204 PA, .318/.409/.491, 10 doubles, 4 triples, 4 homers, 12/2 SB/CS, 28/32 BB/SO
    2009: Beloit: 297 PA, .251/.353/.382, 15 doubles 3 triples, 4 homers, 10/8 SB/CS, 40/55 BB/SO
    2010: Beloit: 518 PA, .279/.401/.428, 27 doubles, 6 triples, 8 homers, 21/11 SB/CS, 88/112 BB/SO
    2011: Fort Myers: 528 PA, .242/.354/.368, 31 doubles, 5 triples, 5 homers, 17/9 SB/CS, 78/110 BB/SO
    2011: Arizona Fall League: 120 (AB+BB) PA, .294/.400/.559, 8 doubles, 5, triples, 3 homers, 5/4 SB/CS, 18/21 BB/SO
     
    Defensively, Aaron Hicks is regarded as basically ready for MLB in center field.
     
    Hicks was drafted with a lot of acclaim and a lot of hope was placed in his potential to be the next Kirby Puckett or Torii Hunter. Then, 2009 happened. Hope was restored in 2010 as he repeated a level. Overall those are pretty good numbers for a 20-year-old in Beloit playing stellar defense. 2011 was a frustrating year for Twins fans who were previously enamored with Hicks' potential. The extra base hits look good, but there isn't a lot of homer power. A lot of Twins fans probably didn't look into what happened in the Arizona Fall League. The AFL is regarded as an offensive paradise for prospects at AA and AAA. That being the case, Hicks' AFL performance might not seem too important. But, he wasn't a AA or AAA player last year and it is possible that he starts this year in Fort Myers again. The hitting in that league is always overhyped because it is a hitters' league, but Hicks was a single-A player playing in a AA/AAA prospect league. He struggled early, but then was dominant . . . in his last ten games his OPS was 1.268.
     
    Hicks is much better at the plate from the right side, so much so that there have been murmurings about him shifting to hitting right-handed only. This is a doubtful move at this point in his career, and obviously there isn't much of a comparison to be made between Hicks vs. righties as a LH hitter and as a RH hitter. For the doubters about his performance, one only needs to look to the minor league career of Torii Hunter who put up very pedestrian numbers until he was 23.
     
    An important appeal to Hicks' potential is the fact that there is no one else in the system that highly regarded who is really a leadoff hitter. Hicks looks to be Denard Span's eventual replacement. And speaking of Span, Hicks appears to project as a kind of Span/Hunter hybrid. He will play excellent defense, strikeout a lot, walk a lot, and hit 10-15 home runs a year.
     
    Even if he starts the year in Fort Myers, I would be surprised if he doesn't finish in New Britain, perhaps splitting time 50/50.
     
    This is a big season for Hicks, and I will be disappointed if he doesn't have a strong season. But I won't be totally dismayed until he actually starts to regress. It appears that a clear directive can be given to him to help substantially: swing the bat more!
  11. Shane Wahl
    Is it really too much to ask for?
     
    That is, it seems odd to sign a bunch of older AAAA type players who have some significant MLB experience to keep at Rochester while hoping on prospects and young players who aren't even AAA players yet to play with the Twins at the start of 2012. And with the news that Willingham can't make a simple transition to RF as a veteran professional baseball player, I am lumping in Ben Revere here even though he is no longer a prospect.
     
    Let's look at the candidates. First the young:
     
    Chris Parmelee: He did have a solid year at AA New Britain last year, and he seemed to finally begin to mesh in his old tendencies for power with his 2010 batting average capability into a solid overall hitter. Then September came and he demonstrated that in a very non-pressure role (skipping a level to join a 63-win team) he could hit very well. And this spring he has hit fairly well again, albeit often times against minor league pitching. This sample size does not have the kind of predictive value that his entire season at AA does, though. More caution is needed than it appears the Twins are going to show here as Parmelee is contending for a starting RF/1B spot and seems guaranteed to be on the roster.
     
    Brian Dozier: Dozier began the year in A+ and hit very well. He put up similar numbers for the second half of the season in AA. He's turning 25 soon, so he isn't too young, but he was 24 at A/AA last year. Dozier has never been regarded as an elite or great prospect. He only recently became a good one. And there is speculation about Dozier competing for either starting job or a utility role for the Twins in April. Granted I hope this is Alexi Casilla's last year with the Twins, but I still think that Casilla is going to outperform Dozier this year when he is healthy. And Jamey Carroll certainly will.
     
    Ben Revere: I has assumed that, after clearly being rushed too soon to the Majors due to Span's injury last year, that Ben Revere would be the starting LF and we could hope that this would be limited to a platoon role. Now, it has changed dramatically with the declaration by Gardenhire that Willingham is the LF. Revere seems relegated to 4th OF status, backing up LF and CF (never RF, please, Gardy) and to pinch-running late in games. But he still hasn't hit his ceiling as he can learn to take better routes in the OF, take more pitches, and bunt. He isn't going to do that spending 2/3-3/4 of the time on the Twins bench.
     
    Now let's look at potential replacements (including those already sent to Rochester or minor league camp):
     
    Sean Burroughs: Burroughs is a decent LH bat and corner infielder. He has significant experience in the big leagues and was an elite prospect before underperformance and drug abuse derailed his career. He isn't going to develop any more. He is likely not going to be very good, but he will likely be replacement level and maybe a bit better if used to spell Valencia against tough RH pitching.
     
    Michael Hollimon: A lot has been made of Hollimon's spring performance. And analyzing spring stats is rather silly if doing so for any predictive value. Seriously, there are studies about this. But Hollimon was not terrible all-around last year in the minors. He hit 18 homers and played four different positions. He is not going to develop either. But he might be able to hit a few homeruns in a limited role as a super utility player for a few months while those who can develop do so in AAA.
     
    Aaron Bates: Already gone from Twins camp, but was a candidate for the 25th spot on the roster because of his major league experience, his success at Rochester last year, and is 1B/LF ability. Like Darin Mastroianni below, I wouldn't say that any improvement is out of the question for Bates, but the ceiling is likely reached. If the RH bats of Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes turn out to be plastic (or foam), Bates would be needed, one would think, more than Parmelee.
     
    Darin Mastroianni: Mastroianni is very much like a Jason Repko, but younger and without true defensive prowess at all three OF positions, but he can play above average defensively at all three positions and is very fast. He still is 26 so that leaves some room for improvement, but he is a marginal replacement player who isn't going to develop more at AAA then he would in a limited role with the Twins.
     
    Other guys to mention as possible players here would be Pedro Florimon, Wilkin Ramirez, Matt Carson, Ray Chang, and even Brian Dinkelman (and would have been Dustin Martin if he were not recently released).
     
    Using, say, Bates or Burroughs, Mastroianni, and Hollimon for April and May while watching the other three play every day while not in over their heads at AAA is very unlikely, but it is what I would do. I don't think much is lost performance-wise for the Twins (perhaps this would be a more productive start, in fact) and I actually want to see how all the prospects at the upper levels of the minors look together on the field.
     
    Imagine:
    1. Ben Revere, LF
    2. Brian Dozier, SS/2B
    3. Chris Parmelee, 1B
    4. Joe Benson, CF
    5. Rene Tosoni, RF
    6. Burroughs or Bates, DH
    7. Ray Chang, 3B
    8. Catcher
    9. Nishioka, 2B/SS
     
    playing together and playing every day, showing what they can actually do and will do in the future.
     
    Too much to ask for?
  12. Shane Wahl
    Twins fans who have a curiosity about how things are "down on the farm" may look at top 10 prospect lists or maybe merely look at those players who are September call-ups and judge the state of the Twins system accordingly. Seth Stohs does more than enough to provide fans with a wealth of information about minor leaguers, but I thought that I would take things a step further and look at the movement of players, by position, on some select prospect lists for 2011-2012.
     
    This does a number of things. First, one can get a picture of the depth of the system as a whole. Second, one can see how the 2011 draft was either satisfactory or not in addressing team needs. Third, we can project potential targeted positions for the 2012 draft. Finally, one can see how players have risen and fallen over the past year to see how the health of the system breaks down by position.
     
    Contrary to much popular belief, especially what passes for "belief" on the Star Tribune comment section, the Twins have a good minor league system, with many good-to-great prospects.
     
    Methodology: I constructed a composite list of top 50 prospects from Twinkie Town, Seth Speaks, and my own list for 2011 and 2012. I compared lists by position and by placement on the lists (top 5, top 15, top 25, top 35, top 50). There are some interesting conclusions to draw and some clear directions the Twins should take in the upcoming draft and in minor league free agent signings.
     
    Composite lists are found here: http://fieldoftwins.blogspot.com/201...2011-2012.html
     
    Prospect movement, by position, the number of players at each positions at various levels (Revere is excluded):
     
    OF 2011:
    Top 5: 2 (Hicks, Benson)
    Top 15: 7 (Morales, Arcia, Kepler, Parmelee, Rosario)
    Top 25: 10 (Tosoni, Ortiz, Goodrum)
    Top 35: 11 (N. Roberts)
    Top 50: 14 (Herrmann, Bigley, Ray)
     
    OF 2012:
    Top 5: 4 (Rosario, Arcia, Hicks, Benson)
    Top 15: 7 (Parmelee, Kepler, Morales)
    Top 25: 8 (Goodrum)
    Top 35: 11 (Williams, Roberts, Perez)
    Top 50: 15 (Ray, Rams, Ortiz, Bigley)
     
    Outfield analysis: There has been movement upward, and this is on top of Ben Revere and Rene Tosoni being out of 2012 consideration due to MLB playing time). While Rosario may move to 2B, some players down the list farther may be moving to the OF (Goodrum, Perez, Rams). The depth has remained roughly the same while there is a movement from the top-middle to the top. ROCH: Benson, Parmelee, Bigley eventually. NBR: Hicks, Morales, Bigley, Rams and Perez eventually). FTM: Arcia, Roberts, Perez, Ray, Rams, and Ortiz eventually), BEL: Rosario, Kepler, Goodrum, Williams, Ortiz.
     
    C 2011:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 0
    Top 35: 1 (Rams)
    Top 50: 2 (Herrmann)
     
    C 2012:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 1 (Herrmann)
    Top 25: 1
    Top 35: 1
    Top 50: 2 (Rams)
     
    Catcher analysis: Herrmann and Rams are going in opposite directions, and Rams may be moving to the outfield anyway). Herrmann hopefully will be an adequate defensive catcher while providing depth at other positions to keep is on base bat in the lineup. Danny Lehmann, Danny Rohlfing, and Josmil Pinto will be guys to watch at the mid-upper levels this year to try to provide depth at this position. At the lower levels, Matthew Koch and Phillip Chapman need to develop. This is a big area for the Twins to look at in the 2012 draft. ROCH: Butera/Towles, Rivera, Lehmann and Herrmann eventually). NBR: Lehmann, Herrmann, Rams eventually, Rohlfing eventually. FTM: Rams, Rohlfing, Pinto, Chapman eventually. BEL: Chapman, Koch.
     
    1B 2011:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 1 (Parmelee)
    Top 25: 1
    Top 35: 2 (Hughes)
    Top 50: 4 (Ray, Vargas)
     
    1B 2012:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 2 (Parmelee, Harrison)
    Top 25: 2
    Top 35: 2
    Top 50: 3 (Ray, lost Hughes and Vargas)
     
    1B analysis: Chris Parmelee has moved up the list and if Travis Harrison moves from 3B to 1B, the Twins may have bolstered the depth at this position. Ray and Michael Gonzales are worthy of watching at Fort Myers this year. ROCH: Parmelee, Pearce, Bates. NBR: Hanson, Colabello. FTM: Gonzalez, Ray. BEL: Rory Rhodes, Vargas, Harrison eventually).
     
    2B 2011:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 1 (Goodrum)
    Top 35: 4 (Beresford, Hughes, Dozier)
    Top 50: 5 (Santana)
     
    2B 2012:
    Top 5: 1 (Rosario)
    Top 15: 2 (Dozier)
    Top 25: 4 (Goodrum and Michael)
    Top 35: 4
    Top 50: 6 (Santana and Beresford)
     
    2B analysis: With the potential switch from the OF for Rosario, it would change the entire power structure of the Twins system. That kind of talent in the middle infield is enormous. Let's say, however, that the switch is a bit shaky this year, the addition of Dozier and Michael to the upper half is great). The depth is climbing to the top at 2B.
     
    3B 2011:
     
    Top 5: 1 (Sano)
    Top 15: 1
    Top 25: 2 (Goodrum)
    Top 35: 3 (Hughes)
    Top 50: 4 (Hidalgo)
     
    3B 2012:
    Top 5: 1 (Sano)
    Top 15: 2 (Harrison)
    Top 25: 2
    Top 35: 3 (Perez, if he stays at 3B, Hughes no longer prospect)
    Top 50: 4 (Hidalgo)
     
    3B analysis: Very little movement and that is a problem. It may be that neither Sano nor Harrison can really stick at 3B (and the same for Perez and Hidalgo!). Joe Mauer start fielding grounders at the hot corner . . . and the Twins need to focus on this position in the system. ROCH: Chang, Burroughs. NBR: Deibinson Romero, Hidalgo. FTM: Perez . . . Grimes, perhaps BEL: Harrison eventually, fill-ins . . .
     
    SS 2011:
    Top 5: 1 (Sano)
    Top 15: 1
    Top 25: 3 (Goodrum, Plouffe)
    Top 35: 5 (Beresford, Dozier)
    Top 50: 7 (Polanco, Santana)
     
    SS 2012:
    Top 5: 0 (Sano moves to 3B)
    Top 15: 1 (Dozier)
    Top 25: 3 (Goodrum, Michael, Plouffe no longer prospect)
    Top 35: 3 (Beresford dropped)
    Top 50: 5 (Santana, Beresford, Polanco dropped off)
     
    Shortstop analysis: Sano is likely done at short, but Dozier's rise helps this position immensely, as does the drafting of Michael. If they both can stay at SS, this is a great development at a problematic position. Daniel Santana will be someone very important to watch this year, and one hopes that Beresford and Polanco can turn it around. I would think that all goes well at this position this year. ROCH: Nishioka (ideally), Florimon, Chang, Dozier eventually. NBR: Dozier, Beresford. FTM: Santana, Grimes, Michael eventually. BEL: Michael, Bryant, Goodrum, eventually.
     
    RHS 2011:
    Top 5: 2 (Gibson, Wimmers)
    Top 15: 6 (Hendriks, Bromberg, Salcedo, Soliman)
    Top 25: 9 (Hermsen, Holbrooks, Guerra)
    Top 35: 11 (Stuifbergen, Lanigan)
    Top 50: 12 (Munoz)
     
    RHS 2012:
    Top 5: 0 (Gibson, Wimmers drop)
    Top 15: 4 (Hendriks, Gibson, Salcedo, Wimmers, Soliman likely converts to RHR in 2012)
    Top 25: 10 (Boyd, Boer, Hermsen, Stuifbergen, Bromberg, Hauser, Guerra converted to RHR)
    Top 35: 11 (Doyle)
    Top 50: 14 (Mata, Shibuya, Lanigan)
     
    Right-handed starter analysis: Liam Hendriks emerged as a true middle of the rotation caliber pitcher and he has the brain for pitching as well. 2011 was a mess in that Gibson and Bromberg were injured, Wimmers lost his control, and Guerra had to convert to a relief role. Soliman is likely to join him as well. So there is movement down towards the middle of the prospect list at this position, but at the same time the 2011 draft provided a lot of depth at the position with Boyd, Boer, Mata, and Shibuya). Wimmers is the key here, and Bromberg is right behind, but keep an eye on Stuifbergen, Hauser, and Boer as well). ROCH: Hendriks, Manship, Suarez, Bromberg eventually, Wimmers eventually, Stuifbergen eventually. NBR: Bromberg, Stuifbergen, Wimmers, Popham, Lanigan. FTM: Hermsen, Salcedo, Achter, Shibuya eventually, Boer eventually. BEL: Shibuya, Boer, Atherton, Christensen.
     
    RHR 2011:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 1 (Gutierrez)
    Top 25: 3 (Slama, Waldrop)
    Top 35: 5 (Watts, Pugh)
    Top 50: 8 (Oliveros, Jacobson, Tonkin)
     
    RHR 2012:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 2 (Soliman conversion, Gutierrez)
    Top 35: 4 (Guerra, Summers)
    Top 50: 6 (Watts, DeVries)
     
    Right-handed reliever analysis: The position is bolstered by the conversion from starter of Soliman and Guerra, otherwise this is a deeply problematic position. Lester Oliveros will be an integral part of this depth chart. While it is one thing to simply convert starters into relievers, gearing relievers to be relievers seems to be more likley to produce good relief pitching. There is a movement toward the middle and toward the bottom here. This will be a vital need for the Twins in the 2012 draft. That means hard-throwers. ROCH: Gutierrez, Slama, Guerra, Oliveros, DeVries, Burton, Bulger, Vasquez, etc. A whole bunch of guys.
     
    LHS 2011:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 2 (Dean, Diamond)
    Top 35: 2
    Top 50: 4 (Darnell, Osterbrock)
     
    LHS 2012:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 0
    Top 35: 3 (Darnell, Dean, Diamond)
    Top 50: 3
     
    LHS analysis: Logan Darnell's rise is promising. Pat Dean and Scott Diamond need bounce-back seasons. This is another key area for the 2012 draft. ROCH: Diamond, A. Thompson. NBR: Darnell, Osterbrock. FTM: Dean, O'Rourke. BEL: Tomshaw.
     
    LHR 2011:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 0
    Top 35: 0
    Top 50: 3 (Ibarra, Bashore, Davis)
     
    LHR 2012:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 0
    Top 35: 1 (C. Williams)
    Top 50: (Tyler Robertson, Matt Bashore, Ibarra and Davis drop)
     
    Left-handed reliever analysis: This is a weak area for the Twins, to say the least. Robertson and Williams are vital to the depth here. Bashore and Davis are coming back from injury. Ibarra is not someone that I personally believe to be a legitimate prospect. ROCH: Robertson, Maloney, Dumatrait, Albers eventually. NBR: Albers, Davis, Nelson, Steedley. FTM: Carter, Gonzales, Ibarra. BEL: Williams, Gruver, Hurlbut, Wheeler.
     
    This was meant to provide an overview of the direction of the farm system. It is an undervalued system, but there are some gaping holes. The Twins need to draft intelligently like they did last year. I do not propose that the MLB draft be positional, since there is and would be great value in simply taking the best guy available, but there are some areas of need to focus on. They are:
     
    LHP in general, RHR, C, and 3B. Of the first 25 picks, I would base my expectations around 6 LHP, 5 RHR, 4 3B, 3C, 2 1B, 2 OF, 2 MI draft.
     
    The future direction of the team is up to the reader. This post was meant to point out some expectations and limitations on players. The future is not bleak, and neither may be the future. Lefty pitching, hard-throwing rights, catcher, and 3B are vital right now.
  13. Shane Wahl
    Twins fans who have a curiosity about how things are "down on the farm" may look at top 10 prospect lists or maybe merely look at those players who are September call-ups and judge the state of the Twins system accordingly. Seth Stohs does more than enough to provide fans with a wealth of information about minor leaguers, but I thought that I would take things a step further and look at the movement of players, by position, on some select prospect lists for 2011-2012.
     
    This does a number of things. First, one can get a picture of the depth of the system as a whole. Second, one can see how the 2011 draft was either satisfactory or not in addressing team needs. Third, we can project potential targeted positions for the 2012 draft. Finally, one can see how players have risen and fallen over the past year to see how the health of the system breaks down by position.
     
    Contrary to much popular belief, especially what passes for "belief" on the Star Tribune comment section, the Twins have a good minor league system, with many good-to-great prospects.
     
    Methodology: I constructed a composite list of top 50 prospects from Twinkie Town, Seth Speaks, and my own list for 2011 and 2012. I compared lists by position and by placement on the lists (top 5, top 15, top 25, top 35, top 50). There are some interesting conclusions to draw and some clear directions the Twins should take in the upcoming draft and in minor league free agent signings.
     
    Composite lists are found here: http://fieldoftwins.blogspot.com/2012/03/composite-prospect-lists-2011-2012.html
     
    Prospect movement, by position, the number of players at each positions at various levels (Revere is excluded):
     
    OF 2011:
    Top 5: 2 (Hicks, Benson)
    Top 15: 7 (Morales, Arcia, Kepler, Parmelee, Rosario)
    Top 25: 10 (Tosoni, Ortiz, Goodrum)
    Top 35: 11 (N. Roberts)
    Top 50: 14 (Herrmann, Bigley, Ray)
     
    OF 2012:
    Top 5: 4 (Rosario, Arcia, Hicks, Benson)
    Top 15: 7 (Parmelee, Kepler, Morales)
    Top 25: 8 (Goodrum)
    Top 35: 11 (Williams, Roberts, Perez)
    Top 50: 15 (Ray, Rams, Ortiz, Bigley)
     
    Outfield analysis: There has been movement upward, and this is on top of Ben Revere and Rene Tosoni being out of 2012 consideration due to MLB playing time). While Rosario may move to 2B, some players down the list farther may be moving to the OF (Goodrum, Perez, Rams). The depth has remained roughly the same while there is a movement from the top-middle to the top. ROCH: Benson, Parmelee, Bigley eventually. NBR: Hicks, Morales, Bigley, Rams and Perez eventually). FTM: Arcia, Roberts, Perez, Ray, Rams, and Ortiz eventually), BEL: Rosario, Kepler, Goodrum, Williams, Ortiz.
     
    C 2011:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 0
    Top 35: 1 (Rams)
    Top 50: 2 (Herrmann)
     
    C 2012:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 1 (Herrmann)
    Top 25: 1
    Top 35: 1
    Top 50: 2 (Rams)
     
    Catcher analysis: Herrmann and Rams are going in opposite directions, and Rams may be moving to the outfield anyway). Herrmann hopefully will be an adequate defensive catcher while providing depth at other positions to keep is on base bat in the lineup. Danny Lehmann, Danny Rohlfing, and Josmil Pinto will be guys to watch at the mid-upper levels this year to try to provide depth at this position. At the lower levels, Matthew Koch and Phillip Chapman need to develop. This is a big area for the Twins to look at in the 2012 draft. ROCH: Butera/Towles, Rivera, Lehmann and Herrmann eventually). NBR: Lehmann, Herrmann, Rams eventually, Rohlfing eventually. FTM: Rams, Rohlfing, Pinto, Chapman eventually. BEL: Chapman, Koch.
     
    1B 2011:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 1 (Parmelee)
    Top 25: 1
    Top 35: 2 (Hughes)
    Top 50: 4 (Ray, Vargas)
     
    1B 2012:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 2 (Parmelee, Harrison)
    Top 25: 2
    Top 35: 2
    Top 50: 3 (Ray, lost Hughes and Vargas)
     
    1B analysis: Chris Parmelee has moved up the list and if Travis Harrison moves from 3B to 1B, the Twins may have bolstered the depth at this position. Ray and Michael Gonzales are worthy of watching at Fort Myers this year. ROCH: Parmelee, Pearce, Bates. NBR: Hanson, Colabello. FTM: Gonzalez, Ray. BEL: Rory Rhodes, Vargas, Harrison eventually).
     
    2B 2011:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 1 (Goodrum)
    Top 35: 4 (Beresford, Hughes, Dozier)
    Top 50: 5 (Santana)
     
    2B 2012:
    Top 5: 1 (Rosario)
    Top 15: 2 (Dozier)
    Top 25: 4 (Goodrum and Michael)
    Top 35: 4
    Top 50: 6 (Santana and Beresford)
     
    2B analysis: With the potential switch from the OF for Rosario, it would change the entire power structure of the Twins system. That kind of talent in the middle infield is enormous. Let's say, however, that the switch is a bit shaky this year, the addition of Dozier and Michael to the upper half is great). The depth is climbing to the top at 2B.
     
    3B 2011:
     
    Top 5: 1 (Sano)
    Top 15: 1
    Top 25: 2 (Goodrum)
    Top 35: 3 (Hughes)
    Top 50: 4 (Hidalgo)
     
    3B 2012:
    Top 5: 1 (Sano)
    Top 15: 2 (Harrison)
    Top 25: 2
    Top 35: 3 (Perez, if he stays at 3B, Hughes no longer prospect)
    Top 50: 4 (Hidalgo)
     
    3B analysis: Very little movement and that is a problem. It may be that neither Sano nor Harrison can really stick at 3B (and the same for Perez and Hidalgo!). Joe Mauer start fielding grounders at the hot corner . . . and the Twins need to focus on this position in the system. ROCH: Chang, Burroughs. NBR: Deibinson Romero, Hidalgo. FTM: Perez . . . Grimes, perhaps BEL: Harrison eventually, fill-ins . . .
     
    SS 2011:
    Top 5: 1 (Sano)
    Top 15: 1
    Top 25: 3 (Goodrum, Plouffe)
    Top 35: 5 (Beresford, Dozier)
    Top 50: 7 (Polanco, Santana)
     
    SS 2012:
    Top 5: 0 (Sano moves to 3B)
    Top 15: 1 (Dozier)
    Top 25: 3 (Goodrum, Michael, Plouffe no longer prospect)
    Top 35: 3 (Beresford dropped)
    Top 50: 5 (Santana, Beresford, Polanco dropped off)
     
    Shortstop analysis: Sano is likely done at short, but Dozier's rise helps this position immensely, as does the drafting of Michael. If they both can stay at SS, this is a great development at a problematic position. Daniel Santana will be someone very important to watch this year, and one hopes that Beresford and Polanco can turn it around. I would think that all goes well at this position this year. ROCH: Nishioka (ideally), Florimon, Chang, Dozier eventually. NBR: Dozier, Beresford. FTM: Santana, Grimes, Michael eventually. BEL: Michael, Bryant, Goodrum, eventually.
     
    RHS 2011:
    Top 5: 2 (Gibson, Wimmers)
    Top 15: 6 (Hendriks, Bromberg, Salcedo, Soliman)
    Top 25: 9 (Hermsen, Holbrooks, Guerra)
    Top 35: 11 (Stuifbergen, Lanigan)
    Top 50: 12 (Munoz)
     
    RHS 2012:
    Top 5: 0 (Gibson, Wimmers drop)
    Top 15: 4 (Hendriks, Gibson, Salcedo, Wimmers, Soliman likely converts to RHR in 2012)
    Top 25: 10 (Boyd, Boer, Hermsen, Stuifbergen, Bromberg, Hauser, Guerra converted to RHR)
    Top 35: 11 (Doyle)
    Top 50: 14 (Mata, Shibuya, Lanigan)
     
    Right-handed starter analysis: Liam Hendriks emerged as a true middle of the rotation caliber pitcher and he has the brain for pitching as well. 2011 was a mess in that Gibson and Bromberg were injured, Wimmers lost his control, and Guerra had to convert to a relief role. Soliman is likely to join him as well. So there is movement down towards the middle of the prospect list at this position, but at the same time the 2011 draft provided a lot of depth at the position with Boyd, Boer, Mata, and Shibuya). Wimmers is the key here, and Bromberg is right behind, but keep an eye on Stuifbergen, Hauser, and Boer as well). ROCH: Hendriks, Manship, Suarez, Bromberg eventually, Wimmers eventually, Stuifbergen eventually. NBR: Bromberg, Stuifbergen, Wimmers, Popham, Lanigan. FTM: Hermsen, Salcedo, Achter, Shibuya eventually, Boer eventually. BEL: Shibuya, Boer, Atherton, Christensen.
     
    RHR 2011:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 1 (Gutierrez)
    Top 25: 3 (Slama, Waldrop)
    Top 35: 5 (Watts, Pugh)
    Top 50: 8 (Oliveros, Jacobson, Tonkin)
     
    RHR 2012:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 2 (Soliman conversion, Gutierrez)
    Top 35: 4 (Guerra, Summers)
    Top 50: 6 (Watts, DeVries)
     
    Right-handed reliever analysis: The position is bolstered by the conversion from starter of Soliman and Guerra, otherwise this is a deeply problematic position. Lester Oliveros will be an integral part of this depth chart. While it is one thing to simply convert starters into relievers, gearing relievers to be relievers seems to be more likley to produce good relief pitching. There is a movement toward the middle and toward the bottom here. This will be a vital need for the Twins in the 2012 draft. That means hard-throwers. ROCH: Gutierrez, Slama, Guerra, Oliveros, DeVries, Burton, Bulger, Vasquez, etc. A whole bunch of guys.
     
    LHS 2011:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 2 (Dean, Diamond)
    Top 35: 2
    Top 50: 4 (Darnell, Osterbrock)
     
    LHS 2012:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 0
    Top 35: 3 (Darnell, Dean, Diamond)
    Top 50: 3
     
    LHS analysis: Logan Darnell's rise is promising. Pat Dean and Scott Diamond need bounce-back seasons. This is another key area for the 2012 draft. ROCH: Diamond, A. Thompson. NBR: Darnell, Osterbrock. FTM: Dean, O'Rourke. BEL: Tomshaw.
     
    LHR 2011:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 0
    Top 35: 0
    Top 50: 3 (Ibarra, Bashore, Davis)
     
    LHR 2012:
    Top 5: 0
    Top 15: 0
    Top 25: 0
    Top 35: 1 (C. Williams)
    Top 50: (Tyler Robertson, Matt Bashore, Ibarra and Davis drop)
     
    Left-handed reliever analysis: This is a weak area for the Twins, to say the least. Robertson and Williams are vital to the depth here. Bashore and Davis are coming back from injury. Ibarra is not someone that I personally believe to be a legitimate prospect. ROCH: Robertson, Maloney, Dumatrait, Albers eventually. NBR: Albers, Davis, Nelson, Steedley. FTM: Carter, Gonzales, Ibarra. BEL: Williams, Gruver, Hurlbut, Wheeler.
     
    This was meant to provide an overview of the direction of the farm system. It is an undervalued system, but there are some gaping holes. The Twins need to draft intelligently like they did last year. I do not propose that the MLB draft be positional, since there is and would be great value in simply taking the best guy available, but there are some areas of need to focus on. They are:
     
    LHP in general, RHR, C, and 3B. Of the first 25 picks, I would base my expectations around 6 LHP, 5 RHR, 4 3B, 3C, 2 1B, 2 OF, 2 MI draft.
     
    The future direction of the team is up to the reader. This post was meant to point out some expectations and limitations on players. The future is not bleak, and neither may be the future. Lefty pitching, hard-throwing rights, catcher, and 3B are vital right now.
  14. Shane Wahl
    With last year's ranking in parentheses.
     
    1. Miguel Sano (2)
    2. Aaron Hicks (1)
    3. Oswaldo Arcia (10)
    4. Eddie Rosario (19)
    5. Liam Hendriks (7)
    6. Joe Benson (8)
    7. Kyle Gibson (4)
    8. Adrian Salcedo (12)
    9. Chris Parmelee (14)
    10. Brian Dozier (36)
    11. Alex Wimmers (5)
    12. Max Kepler (13)
    13. Chris Herrmann (35)
    14. Angel Morales (5)
    15. Manuel Soliman (16)
    16. Travis Harrison (NR)
    17. Niko Goodrum (24)
    18. Hudson Boyd (NR)
    19. David Bromberg (11)
    20. Levi Michael (NR)
    21. Madison Boer (NR)
    22. B.J. Hermsen (18)
    23. Nate Roberts (27)
    24. JaDamion Williams (NR)
    25. Carlos Gutierrez (15)
    26. Jairo Perez (NR)
    27. Tom Stuifbergen (32)
    28. Matt Hauser (NR)
    29. Deolis Guerra (39)
    30. Lance Ray (41)
    31. Pat Dean (23)
    32. Scott Diamond (26)
    33. Danny Santana (50)
    34. Tyler Robertson (NR)
    35. Terry Doyle (NR)
    36. Corey Williams (NR)
    37. Matthew Summers (NR)
    38. Tim Shibuya (NR)
    39. Logan Darnell (48)
    40. Bobby Lanigan (40)
    41. Danny Ortiz (21)
    42. Danny Rams (46)
    43. Rory Rhodes (HM)
    44. Angel Mata (NR)
    45. Evan Bigley (42)
    46. Bruce Pugh (34)
    47. Dakota Watts (29)
    48. James Beresford (30)
    49. Anderson Hidalgo (31)
    50. Jorge Polanco (NR)
     
     
    Honorable Mentions: Matt Bashore, Danny Lehmann, Josmil Pinto, Nick Lockwood, Kennys Vargas, Anthony Slama, Kane Holbrooks, Kyle Waldrop, Brett Jacobsen, Matthew Koch
  15. Shane Wahl
    One of my fondest memories as a child is the time my dad taught me how to score a baseball game. I was 10 years old and I became obsessed with "keeping the book" while watching the Twins on television (I believe those were the Midwest Sports Channel days). My scorebook had about a dozen or so games in it before the postseason came along. I kept score for every ALCS game without a problem.
     
    Then it was the World Series. I started keeping score for every game of that series . . . and I stopped scoring around the 5th or 6th inning of every single game (I think I stopped watching game 5 altogether). I absolutely could not handle the nerves of writing simple letters and numbers in a book any longer. I remember actually throwing that book away a few years later (that was obviously a dumb thing to do) and looking back at those games and my failed attempts to complete a single game from that series with a laugh.
     
    There are a lot of memories that a lot of Twins fans have of that series: the Puckett game (6) and the Morris game (7), Ron Gant clearly throwing himself off of first base and Kent Hrbek trying to simply help stop him, etc. For me, it is when this baseball nerd became a nervous 10-year-old fan again.
  16. Shane Wahl
    The Twins roster right now seems fairly set outside of 1-2 bullpen spots and one bench spot. But with Luke Hughes perhaps not being fully ready at the beginning of the season, it is possible that two spots will be available. Many think that Nishioka has the inside track for one of those spots, but he also cannot right now be trusted to play second base, so having a backup shortstop who isn't a good defender and has shown nothing at the plate so far would seem to be problematic.
     
    So, removing Hughes and Nishioka from the roster and barring other injuries (to mess this up), there are two spots available for a number of players who either played with the Twins or Rochester last year or were in another organization. These players (in no particular order) are:
     
    1. Rene Tosoni-RF/LF, LH (.618 OPS in 189 plate appearances for the Twins in 2011)
    2. Sean Burroughs-3B (but is apparently going to try his hand at 2B and 1B as well), LH (.626 OPS in 115 for the Diamondbacks in 2011)
    3. Aaron Bates-1B/LF (perhaps RF as well), RH (.847 OPS in 420 plate appearances at Rochester in 2011)
    4. Steve Pearce-1B/RF (and some 3B as well), RH (.515 OPS in 105 plate appearances for the Pirates in 2011)
    5. Darin Mastroianni-CF/LF/RF, RH (.747 OPS in 364 plate appearances in AAA in 2011)
    6. Wilkin Ramirez RF/LF/CF, RH (.766 in 313 plate appearances in AAA in 2011)
    7. Matt Carson RF/CF/LF, RH (.871 OPS in 475 plate appearances in AAA in 2011)
     
    I would argue that as Rene Tosoni is the only real prospect and was rushed into service for the Twins last year, he should start in Rochester, playing every day.
     
    Matt Carson has a lot of power and can apparently play all OF positions. Mastroianni has good speed and can also play all OF positions. Wilkin Ramirez is somewhere in the middle and can play all OF positions.
     
    Steve Pearce at least used to have a lot of power, Aaron Bates has some power, and Sean Burroughs doesn't have much power. One can see a pattern.
     
    It seems silly to predict or choose which two of these guys I would replace Hughes and Nishioka with right now, but it will interesting to see if they will get serious attention to be in contention for the roster.
  17. Shane Wahl
    [h=3]Originally posted on November 10th on my blog. Some things are dated.
     
    Review of the GM Handbook[/h]
    Twins Centric has released their annual GM Handbook, a 134-page PDF featuring Michael Cuddyer (perhaps a big ? should also be there) on the cover and a wealth of information inside. Here, I am going to review the Handbook and offer a fifth blueprint for the Twins 2012 season.
     
     
    Some general comments are needed first. John Bonnes, Parker Hageman, Nick Nelson, and Seth Stohs are the equivalent of Joel McHale--they did the research and analyzed the 2011 Twins so you don't have to. After Patrick Reusse's Foreward (no comment here), the Handbook proceeds to analyze the 2011 season, the payroll and the 40-man roster questions. This is followed by my personal favorite part of the Handbook, the organizational depth charts. Seth Stohs does a fantastic job providing information for each position throughout the system. The Handbook continues with grades for every Twins player, arbitration-eligibles, and free agent and trade targets (also a strength of the Handbook is the depth of this section). Each of the four bloggers then outlines their blueprints for the 2012 season and the Handbook concludes with a much-too-short "What are you going to do in the offseason?" section of some select players in the organization.
     
     
    Understanding the payroll situation is vital for all Twins fans to be able to claim to know anything about what the team can reasonably do in the offseason (and this should be required before being allowed to comment on the StarTribune's website). John Bonnes makes the situation quite clear--as is, the Twins are committed to $77.25 million in player salaries ($75.55 million if you do not include the criminally horrible Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, and Jose Mijares, but alas, these three may continue to pollute the 40-man roster next season). The roster holes resulting from this payroll situation really set up the rest of the Handbook.
     
     
    The detail provided in the roster decisions for next year is a major strength of the Handbook. The 40-man roster still is depressing given how the Twins overvalue some seriously bad players and might risk losing some good minor league prospects in their obsession to add mediocre relievers each offseason. Seth provides sound reasons why he would add the five players he wishes to add to the roster (this is found down in his blueprint). Hopefully the Twins will think likewise (and include a 6th player from the list!--Solarte).
     
     
    As I have already said, my favorite part of the Handbook is probably the organizational depth charts. Let's just put it this way--let's hope that Chris Herrmann proves to be good for the Twins and let's also hope that Miguel Sano sticks at third. The catching and third base situation in the system is not good.
     
     
    The player report cards are as expected. Perkins at the top and a whole bunch at the bottom.
     
     
    The arbitration-eligibles situation is pretty clear. A pray that Jose Mijares is signed and traded in some package to some sucker team.
     
     
    The free agent decisions weigh heavily on the front office. It is possible for 0-3 of these players to be re-signed. Matt Capps will be gone, likely to be a decent setup man for some team in the NL. The Cuddyer-Kubel-Nathan question is the most important non-injury-related item in the Handbook. I will say that there is upside to not paying for any one of them.
     
     
    The trade targets section is fairly helpful, though Brandon Morrow is not going to be traded and if C.J. Wilson leaves the Rangers, Colby Lewis isn't going anywhere either. I still maintain that a Kevin Slowey for Ty Wigginton trade is very possible, but Wigginton doesn't appear at all in the Handbook. It is not at all clear why Matt Garza is included in this section. The Twins would never take him back, and the Cubs gave up way too much to get him, so they are going to keep him around post-Zambrano. Tyler Clippard would be nice (as long as Span is not involved).
     
     
    The free agent pool section is more helpful, certainly. And it comes with expected contracts for every player. This really helps when determining who may fit where and for how much (likely).
     
    Onto the blueprints: PLEASE NOTE that I started this review one day and then paused a few days to finish it. In the meantime, the Twins fired Bill Smith and named Terry Ryan interim GM. And then there was the $100 million payroll disclosure, which is probably the bottom end of some range with the top at $110 million. This actually does not seriously affect the blueprints all that much, though.
     
    I have to say that Parker Hageman's blueprint seems vastly superior to the others. Nick Nelson's is my next favorite because it opens up more possibilities for ad hoc trades mid-season next year (and is the closest to that $100 million figure). I like the general idea of letting Kubel and Cuddyer both leave, unless Kubel would be willing to accept arbitration or a two-year deal. I predict right now that Cuddyer ends up in Philadelphia which will really overpay him a great deal, and Kubel ends up in Boston or Texas (and he will be good in both places). Signing Joe Nathan is something I like, but if payroll is set to decrease it is going to be either losing Nathan or not signing a David DeJesus or Derrek Lee, at the very least. I like almost everything about Parker's blueprint. Colby Lewis would be a great idea, but if C.J. Wilson leaves the Rangers, there is no way the Rangers are trading Lewis away. I don't know if trading Slowey and X prospect for Ianetta is really better than just signing Barajas and trading Slowey for Wigginton, but Parker's blueprint excels in his good use of 4 or 4-5 million bucks here and there (Octavio Dotel, David DeJesus, Clint Barmes, and Derrek Lee--one of my all-time favorite players), and then dropping down in the 1-2 million range (Wuertz and Nix).
     
    Finally, the "what are you working on this offseason?" Player Development section is a great look into players at various levels, but this section would be better early in the Handbook. A small and minor quibble for an intriguing glimpse into things. I really would like to hear for Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Oswaldo Arcia though!
     
    All in all, this is a wonderful must-read for Twins fans. These guys are fantastic and they produce something that may be unheard of for other MLB teams (I don't know how many other teams have bloggers writing about them at this level). I will share my blueprint in the next post.
  18. Shane Wahl
    It's the beginning of May, so I thought it would be a good time to evaluate my 2015 breakthrough prospect candidates based on their first weeks this year. Here I highlight the position players and will focus on the pitchers tomorrow.
     
    Lewin Diaz and Jack Barrie have not started playing yet this season.
    Jorge (JJ) Fernandez (CDR) was injured a few week ago and is just returning. Statistics so far: 44 PA, .220/.273/.341, three doubles, one triple, three walks, 10 strikeouts
     
    Levi Michael (CHA) is really heating up. Statistics so far: 67 PA, .246/.353/.509, three doubles, three triples, two homers, seven walks, 12 strikeouts, three steals, and two times caught stealing
     
    Tanner English (CDR) has moved into the leadoff spot. Statistics so far: 82 PA, .239/.337/.352, three doubles, one triple, one homer, 11 walks, 15 strikeouts, eight steals, and one time caught stealing
     
    Zach Granite (CDR/FTM) has already been promoted to a new level. He has had some initial problems with A+ pitching, but the overall numbers are still good. Statistics so far: 98 PA, .318/.414/.400, five doubles, one triple, 13 walks, eight strikeouts, eight steals, and two times caught stealing
     
    Zack Larson (CDR) has struggled at the plate. Statistics so far: 100 PA, .190/.314/.250, three doubles, one triple, 13 walks, 22 strikeouts, five steals, and one time caught stealing.
     
    Tyler Kuresa (CDR) is not hitting well, at present. Statistics so far: 70 PA, .224/.243/.313. three doubles, one homer, two walks, and 17 strikeouts
  19. Shane Wahl

    The Rest of 2014

    By Shane Wahl,

    In the remainder of the season, I would like to see the following:
     
    1. The Twins trade Kurt Suzuki for a top 150 prospect, Josh Willingham for a top 300 prospect, Casey Fien for a top 500 prospect, Eduardo Escobar for a top 700 prospect, Kevin Correia for a top 1000 prospect, and Brian Duensing for a top 1000 prospect.
     
    2. I would *really* like for the first three of those to happen.
     
    3. Jared Burton gone and Alex Meyer called up to the bullpen.
     
    4. Trevor May called up to start.
     
    5. Josmil Pinto and Chris Herrmann to be the sole catchers post Suzuki.
     
    6. Kennys Vargas, Danny Ortiz, and James Beresford to be called up in September for position player additions, and the subsequent and easy 40-man decisions to be made for the latter two.
     
    7. Michael Tonkin, AJ Achter, and Lester Oliveros to be called up for pitching additions, with the easy 40-man moves to be made for the latter two here as well.
     
    8. Some of those 40-man moves can be made through trading the above no-future as Twins players, at least not for guys who have to be added to the 40-man right away.
     
    9. All trades must be for A or maybe AA players and pitchers.
     
    10. Aaron Hicks gets promoted to AAA, as does Eddie Rosario.
     
    11. Byron Buxton and Nate Roberts get promoted to AA.
     
    12. All other proper promotions occur, giving prospects some time at a higher level before next season begins.
  20. Shane Wahl
    I am working through the minor league system team by team and providing six to ten players to watch for the remainder of the season. I will start here at the bottom in the Dominican Summer League and work all the way through Rochester. This provides a nice mix of known and unknown players to pay attention to for the rest of the dismal 2014 Twins season.
     
    My DSL players to watch:
     
    1. Lewin Diaz, 1B, LH, DOB: 11/19/96
     
    2014 statistics: 92 plate appearances, .272/.359/.457 (.815), 6 doubles, 0 triples, 3 homers, 10 walks, 15 strikeouts, 0 steals, 0 times caught stealing.
     
    He turns 18 on my 34th birthday. There is some real slugging potential here and he is not striking out at an alarming rate. It will be interesting to see if the organization decides to give him any time in the GCL this year.
     
    2. Jermaine Palacios, 3B, RH, DOB: 7/19/96
     
    2014 statistics: 114 PA, .299/.442/.460 (.902), 6 doubles, 4 triples, 0 homers, 20 walks, 19 strikeouts, 9 steals, 1 time caught stealing.
     
    May end up being a second baseman soon. Good speed and patience and he just turned 18.
     
    3. Jadison Jimenez, LH SP, DOB: 3/19/94
     
    2014 statistics: 50 innings pitched, 1.98 ERA, 42 strikeouts, 10 walks.
     
    Dramatic improvement over the previous two seasons in the DSL. Seems to be making the proper adjustments and should be someone the Twins move eventually to E-Town (perhaps this time next year).
     
    4. Jorge Andrade, SH, 2B, DOB: 12/7/94
     
    2014 statistics: 123 PA, .343/.423/.524 (.947), 5 doubles, 7 triples, 0 homers, 14 walks, 31 strikeouts, 10 steals, 4 times caught stealing.
     
    Third year in the DSL and he has really blossomed. Another player who could be in E-Town one year from today.
     
    5. Luis Arraez, 2B, LH, DOB: 4/9/97
     
    2014 statistics: 118 PA, .330/.419/.390 (.809), 6 doubles, 0 triples, 0 homers, 15 walks, 8 strikeouts, 9 steals, 4 times caught stealing.
     
    Absolutely no problem with the DSL as a 17-year-old. Should move through the system. Phenomenal BB/K ratio.
     
    6. Roni Tapia, 3B, RH, DOB: 4/3/97
     
    2014 statistics: 102 PA, .253/.294/.389, 5 doubles, 4 triples, 0 homers, 5 walks, 31 strikeouts, 0 steals, 1 time caught stealing.
     
     
    These six will provide a good foundation for paying attention to the league as it deserves.
  21. Shane Wahl
    Here is my updated prospect list given the recent trade, releases, and injuries. This will be the last time Josmil Pinto appears on my prospect list. In two years he has moved from 50 to 5. This is yet another justification for building out long prospect lists like this.
     
    1. Byron Buxton
    2. Miguel Sano
    3. Alex Meyer
    4. Kohl Stewart
    5. Josmil Pinto
    6. J.O. Berrios
    7. Eddie Rosario
    8. Jorge Polanco
    9. Stephen Gonsalves
    10. Max Kepler
    11. Trevor May
    12. Lewis Thorpe
    13. Adam Walker
    14. Travis Harrison
    15. Jorge Felix
    16. Danny Santana
    17. Kennys Vargas
    18. Michael Tonkin
    19. Dalton Hicks
    20. Zach Jones
    21. Sean Gilmartin
    22. D.J. Baxendale
    23. Niko Goodrum
    24. Randy Rosario
    25. J.D. Williams
    26. A.J. Achter
    27. Yorman Landa
    28. Tyler Duffey
    29. Tyler Jones
    30. Aderlin Mejia
    31. Adrian Salcedo
    32. James Beresford
    33. Matt Summers
    34. Amaryus Minier
    35. Nate Roberts
    36. Danny Ortiz
    37. Deibinson Romero
    38. Levi Michael
    39. Fernando Romero
    40. Ryan Eades
    41. Lester Oliveros
    42. Alex Wimmers
    43. Mason Melotakis
    44. Luke Bard
    45. Logan Darnell
    46. Brett Lee
    47. Jason Wheeler
    48. Edgar Ibarra
    49. Dan Rohlfing
    50. Kyle Knudson
    51. Cole Johnson
    52. Nelvin Fuentes
    53. Brian Navaretto
    54. Zach Larson
    55. Mike Kvasnicka
    56. Stuart Turner
    57. Matt Koch
    58. Aaron Slegers
    59. Taylor Rogers
    60. Steven Gruver
    61. J.T. Chargois
    62. Kuo Hua Lo
    63. Tyler Grimes
    64. Lewin Diaz
    65. Hudson Boyd
     
    Honorable mention: Chih-Wei Hu, Brandon Peterson, Josh Burris, Jorge Fernandez, Madison Boer
  22. Shane Wahl
    This concludes the countdown part of this list. I will provide a summary discussion with the full list in the final installment of this prospect countdown.
     
    10. Max Kepler, LH, LF/1B, DOB: 2-12-93
    2013 statistics: 263 plate appearances, .237/.312/.424 (.736/.778), 11 doubles, 3 triples, 9 homers, 24 walks,, 43 strikeouts, 2 stolen bases, and zero times caught stealing.
     
    Kepler is not ready for MLB right now, but he will be a fast-riser in the system.
     
    9. Stephen Gonsalves
     
    8. Jorge Polanco
     
    7. Josmil Pinto
     
    6. Jose Berrios
     
    5. Eddie Rosario
     
    4. Kohl Stewart
     
    3. Alex Meyer
     
    2. Miguel Sano
     
    1. Byron Buxton
  23. Shane Wahl
    I am continuing my countdown of the top 65 (now 66) prospects in the Twins system. Newly acquired Sean Gilmartin makes an appearance. This is not for effect, this really is where I think he belongs on the Twins prospect list.
     
     
    (new) 21. Sean Gilmartin, LHS, DOB: 5-8-90
    2013 Rk/A/AAA (AAA statistics): 91 innings pitched, 5.74 ERA, 65 strikeouts/33 walks (7.0/2.3 career K/BB)
     
    Gilmartin was acquired in a trade for Ryan Doumit, and it is another successful move by Terry Ryan in this offseason. Gilmartin is a lefty who doesn't strike out a ton of guys but has fairly good control. He has been very successful in AA but struggled in AAA. There is zero reason to write him off as he turns 24 next May. Given the number of pitchers the Twins now have at the top of the system, I would expect him to start the season at AA for a bit.
     
    20. Zach Jones, RHR, DOB: 12-4-90
    2013 A+: 48.2, 1.85, 70/28 (13.6/5.1)
     
    Jones earned a trip to the Arizona Fall League, and--even though it was a mess--this shows how highly the Twins value him. Jones strikes out a ton but also walks an awful lot. This will have to be rectified in AA in 2014.
     
     
    19. Dalton Hicks, 1B, LH, DOB: 4/2/90
     
    2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 576 plate appearances, .289/.358/.468 (.826) (.824 career), 39-0-17 doubles/triple/homers, 56-123 walks-strikeouts, 0-2 stolen bases-times caught stealing
     
    Hicks earned a promotion well into 2013 and did fairly well after the move. His 56 extra base hits are impressive and hopefully he can work on improving his BB/K rate with a return trip to Fort Myers to start 2014. I would expect Hicks to earn a promotion for the second year in a row at some point during the season. He is a solid all-around prospect who could soon make us forget about Chris Parmelee.
     
     
    18. Michael Tonkin, RHR, DOB: 11/19/89
    2013 AA/AAA/MIN (AA/AAA stats): 57, 3.47, 66/16 (9.2/2.4)
     
    Tonkin had some very limited time with the Twins this year and is definitely the frontrunner to join the Twins 'pen out of the gate next year in 2014. I would hope that the Twins try to trade off some relievers as soon as the market for them begins to sour in the offseason. Tonkin throws heat and could be an effective setup man.
     
     
    17. Kennys Vargas, 1B, SH, DOB: 8/2/90
    2013 A+: 520, .267/.344/.468 (.813) (.861), 33-1-19, 50-105, 0-0
     
    Vargas felt the effects of fatigue in his first season with more than 191 plate appearances. The power is there but dropped off considerably in the second half of the season. This is really not something to be too concerned about. Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario also left him for New Britain, so he lost some help in the lineup. He just turned 23, so the majority of his age-24 season will be in AA. 2014 might be telling for Vargas' future in the organization.
     
     
    16. Danny Santana, SS/2B, SH, DOB: 11/7/90
    2013 AA: 587, .297/.333/.386 (.719) (.712), 22/10/2, 24-94, 30-13
     
    Santana is still mistake-prone at shortstop but the Twins seem set on keeping him there. He went through some natural growing pains in 2013, but had quite similar numbers to his 2012 season in Fort Myers. The power is not there, but the stolen base total is climbing. Santana should begin 2014 in AA, though with Eddie Rosario's status for the beginning of the year in doubt, Santana might find himself alongside James Beresford and Jason Bartlett in Rochester.
     
     
    15. Lewis Thorpe, LHS, DOB: 11-23-95
    2013 GCL: 44, 2.05, 64/6 (13.1/1.2)
     
    Dominating the GCL like this is nothing all that new, even for Twins pitching prospects. Thorpe, however, turned 18 last month. 2013's dominance came for him at age 17, which is a lot different than a pitcher putting up these numbers at age 19. It will be interesting to see what the do with Thorpe for the season, but I would imagine starting in EST and then spending the entire season building innings in Elizabethon. Thorpe could really push the envelope, but it is probably not realistic to expect any ETA before September 2017 at the earliest.
     
     
    14. Jorge Felix, RHS, DOB: 1/2/94
    2013 ELZ: 61, 2.95, 72/18 (9.9/2.9)
     
    The name is Jorge Felix, not vice versa, so we need to start getting that right. Felix has stormed his way through rookie ball and is set on getting 90 or so innings in A ball in 2014. He has great stuff and great pitches. A full season is the first real test for a pitching prospect, but I am pretty confident in Felix's ability to dominate. He will be 20 on opening day and good find himself starting 2015 in New Britain at age 21.
     
     
    13. Adam Walker, RF, RH, DOB: 10/18/91
    2013 A: 553, .278/.319/.526 (.844, .832), 31-7-27, 31-115, 10-0
     
    It's embarrassing that Walker wasn't promoted to Fort Myers by mid-July in 2013. The Twins organization and plenty of people at Twins Daily get bent out of shape regarding strikeouts. The power is there and his defense is solid. Walker is also athletic enough to manage 7 triples and maintain his perfect SB%. There's an awful lot to like here and I would have really liked to have seen him get a taste of Fort Myers in 2013. Better pitching is going to force him to adjust and this can be dealt with in season. Anyway, 2014 is going to be vital for Walker to prove himself and move into the top 10 here.
     
     
    12. Travis Harrison, 3B, RH, DOB: 10/17/92
    2013 A: 537 plate appearances, .253/.366/.416 (.782/.802), 28 doubles, 0 triples, 15 homers, 68 walks, 125 strikeouts, 2 steals, 4 times caught stealing
     
    Harrison survived his first full season of professional ball and still maintained impressive offensive numbers. His defense is still very much a work in progress. His power seems to be starting to arrive and he can draw walks. The strikeouts really shouldn't be all that alarming for right now. Harrison at 3B, 1B, and corner OF is pretty much blocked, so the Twins may look to trade Harrison after another solid year, especially if he improves.
     
    11. Trevor May, RHS, DOB: 9-23-89
    2013 AA: 151.2, 4.51, 159/67 (10.7/4.6)
     
    May went to the Arizona Fall League to get more innings and build off a season of incremental improvement in his second year in the Eastern League. The ERA is still high as he cannot get his WHIP under control. That said, he did strike out a few more and walked a few less. Really, the Twins should be happy with this performance because at the least it looks like May will be consistent and maybe be able to provide some low-4.00 ERAs with some improvement. Getting a 4th starter out of the Revere deal is good, even if it took a bit to get there. I have to think that May starts 2014 in AAA and is going to be due for a 2014 arrival with the Twins at some point around mid-season. Things have changed somewhat with the signings of Nolasco and Hughes, as well as the idiotic re-signing of Mike Pelfrey, but May will get a look at some point in 2014.
    The next installment will countdown the top 10 prospects in the Twins system.
  24. Shane Wahl
    This continues my prospect countdown. This is quite an interesting mix of players, for Minier to D. Romero, and the inclusion of Nate Roberts and Adrian Salcedo.
     
     
    40. Amaurys Minier, 3B, SH, DOB: 1/30/96
    2013 GCL: 119 PA, .214/.252/.455 (.707), 5 doubles, 2 triples, 6 homers, 6 walks, 29 strikeouts, 1 stolen base, 1 time caught stealing
     
    There should be a fair amount of excitement surrounding Minier as he put up these numbers in the GCL before his 18th birthday. The slugging is impressive, so it is important to watch his contact rate when he moves up to E-Town in 2014. He could fly up this list if he starts out strong there.
     
     
    39. Logan Darnell, LHS , DOB: 2-2-89
    2013 AA/AAA (combined stats): 153.2 innings pitched, 3.22 ERA, 120/45 (6.2/2.5 career rates)
     
    Darnell bounced back from a lackluster 2012 to pitch effectively. He has brought his strikeout rate up nicely in 2013 and could factor in as a lefty out of the bullpen if needed for the Twins or he could be a rotation piece if the Twins aren't especially active in free agency this offseason. He will start with Rochester to begin the season.
     
     
    38. Levi Michael, SS/2B, SH, DOB: 2/9/91
    2013 A+: 375, .229/.331/.340 (.670) (.659), 15-4-4, 49-67, 21-2
     
    Michael has now fallen from around the 20-25 range on my list to 38, and much of his continued presence on this list has to do with the hope that, when fully healthy, Michael can build upon minute improvements made so far and emerge as a legitimate prospect. His stolen base numbers were impressive this year, but not much else is, including his defense. Even though he hasn't really earned the promotion, the time has likely come to push Michael to New Britain to see if he can get on track.
     
    37. Deibinson Romero, 3B/1B, RH, DOB: 9/24/86
    2013 AA/AAA (stats from AAA): 358, .266/.369/.421 (.790) (.759), 15-1-10, 47-75 , 4-0
     
    Romero is an adequate defensive third baseman and has also played first. His future looked very bright about four years ago but then the Twins soured on him and he has been a slow-mover in the system. That said, the Twins ought to be feeling tired with Trevor Plouffe, and especially with Trevor Plouffe at third base. Furthermore, he could be a nice RH bat off the bench. Finally, if Miguel Sano is not ready at the beginning of 2014, Romero could be the fill-in if the Twins either move Plouffe via trade or via position change.
     
     
    36. Nate Roberts, LF/RF, LH, DOB: 2/25/89
    2013 A+ 5 .250/.400/.500 (.900) (.897), 1-0-0, 0-0, 0-0
     
    Roberts played in one game in 2013 and he maintained his crazy HBP standard by getting plunked. This injury business is killing his career and hopefully he can have a healthy 2014. The Twins really just need to move him to AA and hope he is healthy--there is no point for him to play at lower levels at this point. There is significant potential here and it is a shame that it is going to waste.
     
     
    35. Daniel Ortiz, OF, LH, DOB: 1/5/902013 AA: 521, .258/.301/.405 (.706) (.725), 27-4-12, 27-88, 1-4
     
    Ortiz has a tendency to start out seasons very well and then get progressively worse as the season goes on. A great April was followed by consistent decline every month, with a bad August to wrap up the season. Ortiz is very much like Danny Santana, but with some more pop, less contact, and a lot less speed. He might be served best by starting out in New Britain again for 2014 and then work to earn a promotion to Rochester. It is hard, at this point, to imagine Ortiz as anything but a fourth OF, but it will be interesting to watch his power numbers going forward.
     
    34. Adrian Salcedo, RHP, DOB: 2/5/91
    2013 A+: 58.1 innings, 3.70 ERA, 54 strikeouts, 15 walks (7.2/1.8 career)
     
    Salcedo will be 23 on opening day 2014 and he will likely be in New Britain. That isn't far off from the projection in 2009 and 2010 when Salcedo showed great promise. 2011 was a down year for the most part, and 2012 was a disaster with an injury. Salcedo was very effective in the bullpen in Fort Myers this year. The key question is whether or not the Twins view him as a starter or not. I honestly do not think so, and I believe he should be at the back end of the New Britain bullpen for 2014. Salcedo has appeared to right himself and this year is going to be huge for him.
     
     
    33. Matthew Summers, RHS, DOB: 8/17/89
    2013 AA/A+ (combined stats): 142.2, 3.09, 100/46 (6.7/3.2)
     
    2013 was a season of solid improvement for Summers. He is inching his K rate up and lowered his walk rate. He is keeping the hits down both in number and literally--he gave up only three homers all year. If that stat is not a fluke than his future is promising as he climbs the ladder. 2014 should see him start in New Britain.
     
     
    32. James Beresford, 2B/SS/3B, LH, DOB: 1/19/89
    2013 AA/AAA (combined stats): 403, .306/.363/.346 (.708) (.671), 12-1-0, 30/51, 10/2
     
    Beresford is a good defender in the middle infield and has been consistent with the bat, especially since 2010. He possesses no power and will survive if he hits well, draws some walks, and is surrounded by guys with big bats like Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Kennys Vargas. It is not clear why he hasn't played SS much more this year because he is likely going to make it either as a utility infielder (third base should be no problem for him) or as a starting SS. Beresford should start the season next year at AAA and try to improve his slugging somewhat before replacing Eduardo Escobar or Pedro Florimon if his play merits it.
     
     
    31. Tyler Jones, RHR, DOB: 9/5/89
    2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 52.1, 2.58, 66/20 (10.8/3.5)
     
    Jones improved on his 2012 numbers and could be a real force to be reckoned with out of the bullpen. He got hit a little in the FSL, but his stuff is very impressive. Should be a bi-level player again next year and be tapping at the Twins door in 2015 if all goes well.
     
     
    The next post will cover the 21-30 ranked prospects in the system.
  25. Shane Wahl
    1. Byron Buxton
    2. Miguel Sano
    3. Alex Meyer
    4. Eddie Rosario
    5. Kohl Stewart
    6. J.O. Berrios
    7. Max Kepler
    8. Josmil Pinto
    9. Jorge Polanco
    10. Stephen Gonsalves
    11. Trevor May
    12. Travis Harrison
    13. Adam Walker
    14. Jorge Felix
    15. Lewis Thorpe
    16. Danny Santana
    17. Kennys Vargas
    18. Michael Tonkin
    19. Dalton Hicks
    20. Zach Jones
    21. Miguel Sulbaran
    22. D.J. Baxendale
    23. Niko Goodrum
    24. Tyler Duffey
    25. Randy Rosario
    26. A.J. Achter
    27. Yorman Landa
    28. J.D. Williams
    29. Dakota Watts
    30. Aderlin Mejia
    31. Tyler Jones
    32. James Beresford
    33. Matt Summers
    34. Adrian Salcedo
    35. Daniel Ortiz
    36. Nate Roberts
    37. Deibinson Romero
    38. Levi Michael
    39. Logan Darnell
    40. Amaurys Minier
    41. Matt Hauser
    42. Alex Wimmers
    43. Corey Williams
    44. Luke Bard
    45. Ryan Eades
    46. Lester Oliveros
    47. Mason Melotakis
    48. Brett Lee
    49. Dan Rohlfing
    50. Jason Wheeler
    51. Cole Johnson
    52. Nelvin Fuentes
    53. Edgar Ibarra
    54. Fernando Romero
    55. Mike Kvasnicka
    56. Zach Larson
    57. Tim Atherton
    58. Pat Dean
    59. Matt Koch
    60. Steven Gruver
    61. Stuart Turner
    62. Angel Morales
    63. Taylor Rogers
    64. Kyle Knudson
    65. Tyler Grimes
     
    Honorable mention: J.T. Chargois, Chih-Wei Hu, Dereck Rodriguez, Kuo Hua Lo, Brandon Peterson
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