Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Shane Wahl

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,585

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Blog Entries posted by Shane Wahl

  1. Shane Wahl
    This is the third segment in my prospect list breakdown. These ten have good-to-great upside in most cases and essentially all of them are facing crucial seasons in their development, for various reasons.
     
    40. Angel Morales (DOB: 11-24-89), RH outfielder: After the 2010 season, I placed Morales at number 5 on my prospect list. That was a bit high for him, but he certainly made the vast majority of top 10 lists. Morales spent half of 2010 in Fort Myers and has been there ever since, battling injury in 2011 and struggling 420 plate appearances to manage a .220/.310/.328 line. He is clearly stuck in a rut, but the talent is still present and he is only 23. A move up to New Britain could mean a make or break season. Aaron Hicks benefitted from the move to New Britain as did Oswaldo Arcia. Morales is very athletic and his defense is very good with a great arm. This is about the age that Hicks and Benson took off, so hopefully the same can be said for Morales after 2013. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2015 or 2016.
     
    39. Manuel Soliman (DOB: 8-11-89), RH starter/reliever: Solimon was a top prospect going into the 2012 season but was sidelined with injury and had surgery to repair a torn labrum in June. He will come back slowly this year and should be ready by June. He throws in the low 90s and has a sinker as well. If the injury takes a few ticks away, he might be moved to the bullpen. That was the likely future for him anyway, but he could be very good in that role. Like Morales, 2013 is going to be a huge year for Soliman to return to form and move up this list. Expected start: Fort Myers DL. ETA: never or 2015-2016.
     
    38. D.J. Baxendale (DOB: 12-8-90), RH reliever/starter: Baxendale doesn’t really throw hard, but still struck out 31 batters in 18+ innings between Elizabethon and Beloit. He was selected in the 10th round of the 2012 draft and I would consider him a borderline case between the rotation and the bullpen. The Twins might want to see him as a starter, so that could be in the works for 2013. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016.
     
    37. Matthew Summers (DOB: 8-17-89), LH starter: Summers is a guy that I thought would be shooting up this list, but he is in danger of dropping off if he doesn’t turn it around in 2013. Fresh out of college in 2011, he dominated Elizabethon. This year the K rate plummeted to 5.9, while he walked to many batters (especially in limited time at Fort Myers). He can throw hard, but that didn’t translate to strikeouts last season. He did throw almost 150 innings, so that is a good sign for 2013. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is in the bullpen by 2014. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016.
     
    36. Madison Boer (DOB: 11-9-89), RH starter/reliever: Boer is another pitcher who dominated in Elizabethon in 2011 and then had a problematic season across both levels of A ball in 2012. Boer can hit the mid 90s with his fastball, but the strikeouts are not coming. His 5.4/2.6 per nine K/BB rate in 111 innings at Fort Myers is cause for concern. He also gave up 147 hits there. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016.
     
    35. J.T. Chargois (DOB: 12-3-90), RH reliever: Chargois was great at Elizabethon, which doesn’t mean a whole lot for college pitchers. He has a mid 90s fastball and a good slider, however, and could be a fast-rising pitcher. Hopefully his 2013 season doesn’t lead me to saying the same thing about Chargois as I did about Boer and Summers. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016.
     
    34. Angel Mata (DOB: 12-3-92), RH starter: Mata followed up an impressive 2011 with a solid 2012 at Elizabethon. He has control issues, but is young and strikes people out as well. He threw only 53+ innings, so one has to wonder about the number he will be limited to in 2013. While walking too many, he has managed to give up a very low number of hits the past two years (54 in over 90 innings) which says a lot about his stuff. That makeup reminds me a bit of Anthony Slama, but I will leave that alone for now. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017.
     
    33. Michael Tonkin (DOB: 11-19-89), RH reliever: Tonkin finished the year in the Arizona Fall League and was fantastic prior to his last appearance when he gave up three earned runs in an inning. Tonkin between Beloit and Fort Myers struck out 97 batters in 69+ innings, with the K rate actually rising after his promotion to Fort Myers. He had a breakout year in 2012 and should be moving quickly up as the Twins clearly liked what they saw this year with him. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.
     
    32. Danny Ortiz (DOB: 1-5-90), LH outfielder: Ortiz has flown under the radar amidst the massive amount of outfield talent in the Twins system, but he has been consistently solid each year and can play all three outfield positions. This might project him into 4th OF status as the offensive output is definitely not overwhelming (career .732 OPS). That said, he has displayed doubles power each year and has kept his strikeouts fairly low. He could have a breakout season in 2013 in New Britain if the Twins are smart enough to start him there. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: September 2014-September 2015.
     
    31. Luke Bard (DOB: 11-13-90), RH reliever/starter: A lot, in my view, will depend on whether the Twins make use of Bard as a starter or reliever. The 42nd overall pick in the draft has very good stuff with a mid 90s fastball and a fantastic slider. His stat record is so small that isn’t really worth mentioning as seven innings tells one nothing. As a starter, Bard could amount to a mid-rotation contributor. As a reliever, he could end up being a setup or closer type after the Glen Perkins era. Only time will tell. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017.
  2. Shane Wahl
    This is the first in a series of blog posts breaking down my top 60 Twins prospects. I realized that I had omitted Ryan Pressly and Zach Jones from my initial list, so they will make it into the series now. Overall the system has improved dramatically in the past two years, both at the top and with respect to depth.
     
    Honorable Mention: Matthew Koch, Bobby Lanigan, Tyler Grimes
     
    HM: Matthew Koch: After an inconsequential 2011, Koch started out of the gates hot in the first half of his season and then cooled off. He ended with a .253/.349/.421 (.770) line and hit 8 homers in 359 plate appearances. He also struck out 106 times and that was the major cause of his fall in the second half. If he can regain some of that offensive prowess displayed early and cut down on the whiffs, he could rise up the list. He just turned 24, however, so the clock is ticking. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-16.
     
    HM: Bobby Lanigan: Lanigan is falling off the prospect map and 2013 might be his last chance to turn his career around. In 225+ inning in AA, he has a 4.51 ERA and 5.8/2.2 per nine K/BB rate. AAA was significantly worse for him in 2012. He’ll be 26 in May. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: never or 2013-2014.
     
    HM: Tyler Grimes: Grimes was successful in his first partial year in professional baseball in 2011, but repeating Beloit in 2012 got him nowhere. In 222 more plate appearances, his OPS dropped 69 points. His defense at shortstop also went south in 2012 so he might be moving to 2B or 3B, which could help his chances if he can start hitting again and he has a bit of time (turns 23 in July). Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016.
     
    60. Logan Darnell (DOB: 2-2-89), LH starter: Darnell struggled at New Britain in 2012, posting a 5.08 in 156 innings with a 5.7/2.7 per nine K/BB rate. His fastball tops out in the low 90s and he has a decent changeup. He very well could end up moving to the bullpen, but for now will likely stick as a starter for 2013. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: never or 2014-2015.
     
    59. Tyler Jones (DOB: 9-5-89), RH starter: Jones had a fairly impressive 2012 year at Beloit. He gives up too many hits and walks too many (1.442 WHIP), but struck out 102 in 86+ innings. His fastball tops out in the mid 90s and he will need to work on his secondary pitches (slider, changeup) to improve. He is someone I may consider as a 2013 breakout candidate and he could move up this prospect list very quickly. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: never or 2015-2016.
     
    58. Romy Jimenez (DOB: 5-14-91), RH outfielder: After spending the vast majority of his time in the organization in the DSL, Jimenez burst on the scene in 2012 in Elizabethon. In 139 plate appearances he posted a 1.108 OPS, with 12 doubles, 8 homers, and 19 walks (vs. 25 strikeouts). The outfield depth chart is obviously crowded in the organization, but Jimenez could hold his own in his first full season. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2016-2017.
     
    57. Pedro Hernandez (DOB: 4-12-89), LH starter: Hernandez came over in the Francisco Liriano trade and has a bit of promise. I am potentially undervaluing him, but the falling K rate 10.2, 8.4, 8.3, 7.0, 6.5, 6.0 at each successive level in the minors worries me. That said, he does not walk many hitters and has solid command of multiple pitches (fastball, sinker, changeup). Might be the left-handed version of Liam Hendriks. His fastball hits the low 90s, so command is going to be vital for the lefty going forward and his stock may rise dramatically by mid-season. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: 2013-2014.
     
    56. Taylor Rogers (DOB: 12-17-90), LH starter/reliever: Drafted in the 11th round in 2012, Rogers pitched at two levels, finishing well in Beloit. Splitting time as a starter and reliever, he pitched 33+ innings, striking out 35 and walking 12. With a high 80s-low 90s fastball, his secondary pitches (curveball, changeup) are going to need to continue to be effective if he is too remain a starter. A solid pitcher, all-around, he is very unlikely to be a bust. Expected start: Cedar Rapids or Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.
     
    55. Pat Dean (DOB: 5-25-89), LH starter: Dean uses a low 90s fastball mixed in with good secondary pitches (curveball, changeup) to maintain solid, though not overpowering numbers as a left-handed starter. The strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff but he also keeps the walks pretty low. I am skeptical of continued success as he moves up, but he could wind up (for better or worse) being the left-handed BJ Hermsen. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: Never or 2014-2015.
     
    54. Deolis Guerra (DOB: 4-17-89), RH reliever: Early in 2012 it looked like Guerra’s move to the bullpen was entirely successful and that he might be on a fast track to the Twins bullpen. He dominated at AA but ended the season struggling in Rochester, posting a 4.87 ERA in 57+ innings of work there. The K rate is still impressive and if he can keep the walks low, Guerra should find success in AAA this year. Given that the Twins bullpen could regress with the likes of Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak (and even Casey Fien), we may see Guerra with the Twins at some point this year. Expected start: Rochester: ETA: 2013-2014.
     
    53. Tim Shibuya (DOB: 9-14-89), RH starter: After a successful 2011 in rookie ball, Shibuya regressed significantly in 2013 and his season was cut short due to injury. His average stuff did not translate with the move up, but perhaps he can come back with a solid performance at low-A ball this year after the injury. His 6.8/1.8 per nine K/BB numbers are good enough if he can maintain the ratio going forward. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016.
     
    52. James Beresford (DOB: 1-19-89), LH middle infielder: Beresford’s drop on this list has less to do with his performance and more to do with the depth of the list and the last two drafts for the Twins. In fact, Beresford performed slightly better with the move up to AA in 2012, raising his OPS 17 points, mostly the result of a bit of increased pop (which is a very welcomed sign). He split time pretty evenly between shortstop and second base and may do the same this year. He is very good defensively. His .266/.330/.314 line is something to build off of for 2013. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2013-2014.
     
    51. Tyler Duffey (DOB: 12-27-90), RH reliever: Duffey dominated Elizabethon in 2012 after the Twins drafted him in the 5th round. He struck out 27 and walked 2 in 19 innings of work. He throws in the low 90s and has a good slider. I would expect him to remain in the bullpen. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: never or 2015-2016.
  3. Shane Wahl
    This is under the assumption that no more prospects are going to be added to the system before the beginning of the 2013 season. So here are the top 60 prospects in the Twins organization:
     
     
    1. Miguel Sano
    2. Aaron Hicks
    3. Oswaldo Arcia
    4. Byron Buxton
    5. Alex Meyer
    6. Eddie Rosario
    7. Jose Berrios
    8. Kyle Gibson
    9. Max Kepler
    10. Trevor May
    11. Joe Benson
    12. Travis Harrison
    13. Chris Herrmann
    14. Nate Roberts
    15. Adam Walker
    16. Kennys Vargas
    17. Niko Goodrum
    18. Adrian Salcedo
    19. Hudson Boyd
    20. Matt Hauser
    21. Josh Burris
    22. Danny Santana
    23. BJ Hermsen
    24. Alex Wimmers
    25. Levi Michael
    26. Dereck Rodriguez
    27. Jason Wheeler
    28. Jorge Polanco
    29. Tom Stuifbergen
    30. Mason Melotakis
    31. Luke Bard
    32. Danny Ortiz
    33. Michael Tonkin
    34. Angel Mata
    35. J.T. Chargois
    36. Madison Boer
    37. Matthew Summers
    38. D.J. Baxendale
    39. Manuel Soliman
    40. Angel Morales
    41. A.J. Achter
    42. Corey Williams
    43. J.D. Williams
    44. Lester Oliveros
    45. Josmil Pinto
    46. Bruce Pugh
    47. Chris Colabello
    48. Dakota Watts
    49. Tyler Duffey
    50. James Beresford
    51. Tim Shibuya
    52. Deolis Guerra
    53. Pat Dean
    54. Taylor Rogers
    55. Pedro Hernandez
    56. Romy Jimenez
    57. Tyler Jones
    58. Logan Darnell
    59. Matt Koch
    60. Bobby Lanigan
     
    Once I got to 35 it became a mess of pitchers. There are about 10-12 pitchers who should differentiate themselves in 2013.
  4. Shane Wahl
    There is strangely now much more uncertainty about the 2013 roster than there was for 2012. A little over a month ago it seemed like things were clear-cut. There was a 50/50 chance that Span would be traded, but otherwise it looked like much of the 25-man roster was pretty clear.
     
    In the past few weeks, the Twins have traded Span (for prospect Alex Meyer), traded Ben Revere for Vance Worley (and prospect Trevor May), signed Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey and Rich Harden, and selected Ryan Pressly in the rule 5 draft. This a four-person shakeup of the roster, but the loss of Span and Revere creates further question marks. There are then three big areas of doubt for the roster, and in rather tragic-comic fashion they are starting pitching, the outfield, and middle infield.
     
    Starting rotation
    Scott Diamond and Vance Worley are clear locks at the top of the rotation. Whether or not they should be at the top of any rotation is another matter, but a charitable view is that one could legitimately hold down the second spot and the other a third spot on a competitive team. We can all wait and see if the Twins add Shaun Marcum to make the front three fully legitimate. After those two, it would seem obvious that Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey are next in line, given that they are making $4.5 and $4 million in 2013, respectively. Since Nick Blackburn is making $5.5 million as well, that might mean that Nick rounds out the rotation. That's an expensive 3-5 part of the rotation given that they would all seem to be 5th or spot starters. Aside from this, Liam Hendriks would seem to be next in line since he is the only prospect totally ready. He struggled mightily in 2012, but he was substantially better in the last two months. He is also someone who is smart about pitching and has good enough stuff to adapt adequately. Then there is the most recent addition, Rich Harden, who is a walking injury and is coming off rotator cuff surgery. If healthy for 100 innings this year, Harden should be pretty valuable.
     
    After Harden, it is a mess of pitchers: Cole DeVries, Sam Deduno, and PJ Walters, who all served time with the Twins in 2012. The first two were decent enough as fifth starters, and Walters showed glimpses of that capability as well.
     
    Then there is Kyle Gibson, who is going to be facing limited innings. He is very likely going to be limited to the 140-150 range. It doesn't make sense to start the season with him as a starter in that case.
     
    The Twins may base their decision around the $14 million given to their fifth starters and start the season with those pitchers at 3-5 in the rotation. Attrition might hit one of them and Hendriks does not return to AAA but rather to the Twins. Attrition could hit two of them and Hendriks and Harden/Deduno/DeVries/Walters are a part of the starting five. What the Twins should not resort to is bringing Brian Duensing or Anthony Swarzak into the rotation. Duensing is very valuable as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen, and Swarzak is bad as a starter and marginally adequate as a long reliever.
     
    The Twins may be signing Freddy Garcia in the next few days. Nothing really changes above, except added frustration at wasting money on 5th-starter ceiling pitchers.
     
    The Outfield
     
    Josh Willingham is the lock in left field barring any sudden trade in the remainder of the offseason. And I think it is a good idea to not trade him yet, as his power numbers shouldn't fall off too much in 2013 and his trade value goes up, especially around the deadline. Darin Mastroianni and Chris Parmelee may round out the starting OF and this means a below-average OF defensively which is a stark contrast from the 2012 team. However, Mastroianni was the 4th OF, and if he starts the Twins would need to add somebody to serve in that bench role.
     
    Aaron Hicks is drawing attention as a potential CF instead of Mastroianni and he deserves this attention. He has been ready defensively for MLB for a few years and his bat is developing. He is still young and could obviously use AAA seasoning.
     
    Joe Benson would have been an obvious choice for this CF position, but the 2012 season was a debacle for the talented prospect. He dealt with an injury and needs time at Rochester to get it together.
     
    An overlooked possibility is for the Twins to start Mastroianni at CF and simply call-up Wilkin Ramirez to be the 4th OF. Ramirez didn't play any CF in 2012, but played there a bit in 2011 and a lot in 2010 when he split time between the minor league AAA Atlanta and Detroit affiliates. This would mean not spending money on a washed-up veteran and rewarding a minor league player who was very successful in 2012.
     
    In 396 plate appearances for Rochester last year, Ramirez's line was .276/.316/.451. While he obviously strikes out too much (97) and walks too little (18), he has significant power (15 homers and 18 doubles). He is Darin Mastroianni minus a bit of defensive range and speed, but with more power.
     
    Brandon Boggs is another likely possibility as he has experience in all three OF positions and also posted a .767 OPS in AAA last year. He is Wilkin Ramirez with better plate discipline and less power.
     
    It would interesting to see if the Twins goes this route and see how Hicks, Benson, and Oswaldo Arcia do in AAA to begin the season, at least until June.
     
    Middle Infield
     
    The Twins experimented with their middle infield in 2012. Jamey Carroll was above average defensively at short but started the season struggling at the plate. Alexi Casilla was above average at second base, but was bad at the plate and is gone, signing with Baltimore.
     
    The Twins then made a series of bad decisions regarding prospect Brian Dozier. They called him up even though he was not successful in limited time at Rochester. He started out of the gates well enough, demonstrating some pop and good fundamentals in the field. But then he crashed. The Twins stuck with him for several weeks after he started to stink for some reason and never bothered to move him over to second base and Carroll back to shortstop. Eventually he was demoted and Pedro Florimon was given a chance at shortstop. The Twins mysteriously didn't bring Dozier back in September. He could have played second base during that time. I think the Twins really should have tried out all possible combinations of middle infield alignment between Florimon, Dozier, Carroll, and Eduardo Escobar. Unfortunately it was almost completely Florimon-Carroll, with Escobar filling in some at second base.
     
    Florimon was flashy at shortstop but made a number of errors on routine plays. His bat was also pretty bad, adding to the offensive woes the middle infield went through in 2012.
     
    Looking forward to 2013, it would seem like the same four players are going to be in contention, with only three likely to make the roster. Jamey Carroll surprised people with his above average play at SS and I believe he should return to that position. This is also due to the fact that the Twins needs somebody besides Mauer at the top of their lineup to get on base and Carroll had a strong second half of the 2012 season.
     
    I would give second base to Dozier who definitely is going to be a better offensive performer than Florimon. If Dozier can improve defensively at an easier position this might also help his performance at the plate.
     
    I would have Florimon take over the utility infielder role and keep Escobar at Rochester to try to develop some kind of offense.
     
    Odds and Ends
     
    Other things I would like to see the Twins do include giving the long relief role to Rule 5 draft pick Ryan Pressly and sending Anthony Swarzak off in some trade for a low-A hard thrower. Swarzak is competent and some teams might consider him as a starter. Pressly is nothing special but he just turned 24 and is over two years younger than Scott Diamond (not to mention three years younger than Swarzak). It isn't as though the Twins are without long relievers from the mess of 5th-6th starters they have right now in the system in case Pressly is terrible. He might be worth the very low risk and may improve for 2014.
     
    I also would like the Twins to give up on the Drew Butera era and add Chris Herrmann to the roster. Herrmann is not a great prospect, but rather a good one and that works as a catcher. Furthermore, he can also play the corner outfield positions and would serve as the 5th outfielder. He isn't going to be a starting catcher anyway, so the "playing every day" mantra doesn't really apply. His adequate defense and great plate discipline make him much more deserving of a roster spot than that one other guy.
     
    Finally, there is one bench spot left and I would like to see what Chris Colabello can do. There isn't much time to wait and see with him in AAA. I would understand if the Twins went with Escobar to start the season to see Colabello hit in Rochester, but he is getting old, is peaking, and has power. His 2012 performance in AA coupled with his complete dominance of the Mexican Winter League earns him this reward. And . . . it makes for a good story and someone interesting to watch in 2013.
     
    The Roster
    Jamey Carroll, SS (RH)
    Joe Mauer, C (LH)
    Josh Willingham, LF (RH)
    Justin Morneau, 1B (LH)
    Trevor Plouffe, 3B (RH)
    Ryan Doumit, DH (SH)
    Chris Parmelee, RF (LH)
    Brian Dozier, 2B (RH)
    Darin Mastroianni, CF (RH)
     
    Wilkin Ramirez OF (RH)/Brandon Boggs OF (SH), Pedro Florimon MI (SH), Chris Herrmann C/LF/RF (LH), Chris Colabello​ 1B/emergency 3B (RH)
     
    Scott Diamond (LH)
    Vance Worley (RH)
    Kevin Correia (RH)
    Liam Hendriks (RH)
    Rich Harden (RH)*
     
    Ryan Pressly (LR-RH)
    Tyler Robertson (MR-LH)
    Anthony Slama (!!!!) (MR-RH) **
    Casey Fien (MR-RH)
    Brian Duensing (MI-LH)
    Jared Burton (SU-RH)
    Glen Perkins (LH-CL)
     
    * Pelfrey is likely not ready to start the season. Harden could lose to any number of other pitchers, of course. But if he's healthy that is very good.
    ** It's Slama's time, and Alex Burnett has one option year left. Burnett needs to work on things and should do it in Rochester in high-leverage setup situations.
     
    So this concludes a very updated blueprint that is more in touch with reality. The Twins are going to face some trade opportunities and prospects knocking on the door in 2013 so this season is definitely going to be a work-in-progress and the 25-man roster will look very different at the end of the season.
  5. Shane Wahl
    Like the pretenders and imitators of the real Slim Shady, the Twins appear to have a preposterous situation at the SS position throughout the organization. Here, I discuss the 15 top shortstops in the organization with regard to their current output and future potential. Initially, the term "shortstop" will designate those players in the organization with significant playing time at the position in 2012 (Eduardo Escobar's 10 games at the position is the low point in terms of playing time at SS).
     
    The "big" 15 are: Jamey Carroll, Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar, James Beresford, Estarlin De Los Santos, Daniel Santana, Levi Michael, Tyler Grimes, Stephen Wickens, Adam Bryant, Adam Pettersen, Niko Goodrum, Jorge Polanco, Aderlin Mejia.
     
    These players have accumulated 650 games played at SS this season and 559 games at other positions (predominantly 2B, then 3B). So the "shortstops" here have actually played the position for 53.8% of the games. Included in this are the games played by De Los Santos (55) and Bryant (20), but those two players cannot be a part of the future for the Twins with Bryant's .580 OPS as a 23-year-old at Beloit, and De Los Santos' .552 OPS as a 25-year-old.
     
    Removing those games makes it about 50/50 in terms of shortstop playing time vs. playing time at other positions. But this ratio could be offset by true shortstops coupled with true second basemen, etc., right? Not really, as Brian Dozier's 83 games and Tyler Grimes' 77 games are second and third respectively in games played at shortstop behind Danny Santana. But Santana isn't even a good fit at SS, but is much better at 2B. In all three cases, it would appear that the better fit is 2B instead of SS.
     
    What on earth is going to happen at shortstop outside of adding free agents? The best cases may be Florimon and Beresford, but I have no high hopes for the offensive production in the future for those two players. Maybe that will not matter, as the Twins offense outside of SS may improve dramatically. Otherwise, it would appear that the Twins are going to be hoping for Niko Goodrum to stay at short and develop offensively.
     
    There is a major failure by this organization at securing this position. They had a chance with the FA J.J. Hardy, but they sought help elsewhere (nowhere). I am comfortable with Florimon backed by Carroll for 2013, but the outlook is fairly bleak beyond this season. The hope (for the future) for 2013 is going to lie in James Beresford's offensive production, Danny Santana's ability to field the postion, and Niko Goodrum's progress at the position across the board.
  6. Shane Wahl
    This concludes my 2013 blueprint. So far it has involved adding Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum as the two new additions to the team. It also would mean a return of Scott Baker on an incentive-laded deal, giving Anthony Slama a chance, and a wait-and-see approach with Kyle Gibson. In terms of position players, instead of worrying about who to trade, I have argued that having a good PH option for every game is actually a good idea, whether it be (by rotation) Parmelee, Morneau, Mauer, Doumit, Willingham, Span, or Revere. Finally, I have claimed that Chris Herrmann should be with the Twins next season since his ceiling is not as a starting catcher and it doesn't matter anyway with Mauer and Doumit. The Twins might as well just use him now to maximize their roster (his case is different than Hicks and Arcia).
     
    Now, what matters most is the future of the organization, not just what happens in 2013. I do believe that Hicks and Arcia are truly legitimate MLB-soon-to-be-ready players. I also believe that Joe Benson could easily have a bounce-back season at AAA and that means that 3 OF are suddenly big-league ready.
     
    So, trading Span in the offseason is not the end of the world. If that were to happen, Aaron Hicks can be the replacement. Trading Ben Revere, to me, is the best option as I would like to see an OF of Span-Benson-Hicks in the future.
     
    That would also mean trading Josh Willingham, which I would not like to see at all until the 2013 trade deadline at the very earliest. The Twins have a RH power hitter . . . . that is something that cannot be ignored in its utter strangeness. That said, I would probably prefer that Willingham moves to DH after the Morneau era.
     
    With regard to Morneau, there is no way I would bring him back after the 2013 season. Trading him would have been good already, but there is certainly no way he should be around after this coming season.
     
    And that does not have to do simply with Parmelee, but also with Miguel Sano. I believe that the best place for Sano, eventually, is first base. And Sano's development is likely to continue steadily, so that by September 2014, it would make sense to call him up anyway.
     
    With regard to pitching. Marcum and Jackson would be signed for three year deals and would thus be certainly involved with the Twins return to success by 2014 and certainly by 2015. There are no real alternatives over the next few years as the Twins wait for Berrios, Boyd, Salcedo, Summers, and so forth.
     
    The Twins system is now above average again and will only be propelled higher by the 2013 draft and 3 top 70ish picks.
     
    I do have optimism about the franchise and see this time as a good recalibration. Rantz is gone. Plenty of average to incompetent coaches are gone or shifted around. Gardenhire and Anderson are on their last life. The system is being rebuilt and Joe Mauer is still great. 2011 was an injury disaster. 2012 was a starting rotation disaster. 2013 could bring another disaster, but I do doubt it. The future looks bright, especially if, you know, this blueprint is the actual plan . . .
  7. Shane Wahl
    In Part Two of the 2013 blueprint, I discussed the pitching staff. Now . . . that problem has . . . .clearly been solved. So something much easier is in store. This is the lineup/bench I propose for the 2013 Twins
     
    Span CF
    Revere LF
    Mauer C
    Willingham RF
    Morneau 1B
    Plouffe 3B
    Doumit DH
    Dozier 2B
    Florimon
     
    Parmelee
    Carroll
    Mastroianni
    Herrmann
     
     
    The bench is meant to be a return to the "Thome bench." This means that the Twins would have either a good replacement already up with the team in case of injury or one good-great bat on the bench for every single game (pinch hitting for Florimon, Dozier, or possibly Revere. As it turns out, Chris Parmelee appears to be the odd man out for the first several games of the season, but he can be worked into the rotation to give optimal rest for six other guys, especially Mauer, Morneau, Doumit, and Willingham. I still prefer a Willingham-Revere positional flip, but this would still work even if they stayed where they are right now.
     
    Jamey Carroll might end up being the starter somewhere (I would say SS), but if not that just means he is a late-inning replacement and a backup at 3B, SS, and 2B, and thus getting plenty of at bats.
     
    I realize that putting Chris Herrmann on this roster flies in the face with what I have said about AA and AAA, but I also think that Herrmann's value for 2013 is with the Twins has Doumit-lite, certainly getting a chance to take over Doumit's role as Mauer's catching partner in the future. Butera can be given a nice little salary to be the AAA catcher, working with pitchers as they come up through the system. Maybe he can be called up if there is an injury and certainly in September. But there is no reason to have him on the Twins roster. Herrmann, in my view, belonged in AAA by mid-season 2012 at the latest anyway. He also adds LF depth (and likely can adapt to RF and even 1B).
     
    Mastroianni would return in his role as a backup for all three OF positions and a speedster on the bases. It might not be a bad idea to also get him 2B time in emergency situations (basically if Jamey Carroll becomes injured in a game).
     
    Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, and Evan Bigley would be the Rochester OF/DH, with perhaps Tosoni or Bigley trying out at 1B. Eduardo Escobar and Chris Colabello would be the other players at Rochester who could factor into the 2013 Twins roster.
     
    People have generally overlooked how successful the Twins were with this intact lineup during the middle of the year. This was essentially a .490 ballclub with the continuing pitching problems of relying on AAA pitchers. Adding Parmelee in a real sense does a number of things. It provides the Twins with a bench threat for every single game. It also provides rest for players so that they stay fresh. Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, and Doumit all fall into this category. Herrmann just needs to play with the Twins and provides insurance in the OF if the Twins start trading players from their starting OF.
     
    So we have the Twins 25-man roster? We are all set, right? Not really at all, and the final segment of this blueprint will address the future of the Twins, the 40-man roster, and some other comments on how I would act as a GM of this team.
  8. Shane Wahl
    In part one of the blueprint, I laid out the Twins 2013 roster as I see it should be (disclaimer: this means that this is what the Twins *should* do, not a prediction as to what they *will* do). In part two, I focus more intensely on the pitching situation, and turn the pitching staff first for obviously reasons.
     
    I am not completely against trading away MLB players or even some prospects (lower levels) for MLB-ready or near MLB-ready pitching, but I do think there is a better way to go about it. My path for 2013 (and through 2015) is to sign Shaun Marcum and Edwin Jackson to, for example, 3 years and $30 million each.
     
    Marcum is about to turn 31 and has averaged 193 innings in seven seasons with Toronto and Milwaukee, compiling a 3.78 ERA and a 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson just turned 29 and has been in the majors in some capacity for 10 seasons already. Early in his career it appears he was in over his head, but in 2011 he posted a 3.79 ERA and this year he had a 3.77 ERA (before a disastrous last start) and has pitched near 200 innings each season, combining for about a . . . 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson and Marcum are clearly very, very similar pitchers who have up eerily similar numbers. And their similarity will be refreshing after the mirror-imaged Blackburn, Pavano, and Marquis this year.
     
    I am not sure how the market is going to play out, but the Twins should be aggressive. The long-term salary projections for this team are quite favorable as it is the case that Morneau, Willingham, and Span are going to be replaced with much cheaper options in the coming years. With the subtraction of Nishioka's salary from my 2013 salary projection, $20 million for Marcum and Jackson leaves the salary at around $93-94 million. So, for those who say that the Twins would never sign two pitchers like this, maybe demanding that the Twins make such signings is a better use of time!
     
    Diamond-Jackson-Marcum at the top is dramatically better than what the Twins started out with in 2012.
     
    The general idea with the Rochester rotation would be Gibson limited to 5 innings and then 6 innings an outing in April and May respectively. If all goes well, he can be promoted. Walters, Bromberg, Vasquez, and Hernandez would join him while Baker gets rehab time.
     
    Speaking of Baker, Baker would get a base $2 million salary with huge incentive increases based on innings pitched and ERA. That salary would top out at $6 million.
     
    So the rotation, including Hendriks (who I still believe will prove to be a good pitcher, certainly worthy of a 4th or 5th spot in the Twins rotation) and Deduno (let's say), would be remarkably improved and there would again be depth at AAA, including Gibson and Baker. A healthy and good Gibson and the return of a good Baker would mean that Hendriks is back at AAA anyway (barring injury at the top).
     
     
    With regard to the bullpen, I am not an Anthony Swarzak fan for a variety of reasons, so the Twins should trade him for Big Foot and be done. I would give the LR role to Cole DeVries.
     
    The only thing I am not sure of is whether or not Deolis Guerra would clear waivers. He is out of options, and the Twins didn't bother giving him a September look for some insane reason. I still believe, of course, that Anthony Slama should be with the Twins. Guerra needs more time in AAA and Slama clearly does not, so he gets the nod. Alex Burnett has an option, and I think the Twins should use it immediately to get him to work on command and striking more batters out. I don't really trust him at all, but at least it is good that he has an option left. Tyler Robertson provides solid strikeout potential from the left side and has improved during the year.
     
    Casey Fien was a great surprise this year. I hope that this continues and he can serve as a strong middle reliever as basically Brian Duensing's other half. Speaking of Duensing, no more moving him into the rotation. Ever. I cannot understand why such a stupid move was made in 2012.
     
    A solid Fien and the Duensing-who-isn't-messed-with-by-incompetent-managing, provides a good 7th/8th foundation for Burton and Perkins.
     
    So the 2013 staff would look like this:
     
    Scott Diamond
    Edwin Jackson
    Shaun Marcum
    Liam Hendriks (Baker/Gibson)
    Sam Deduno (Baker/Gibson)
     
    Cole DeVries
    Anthony Slama (Deolis Guerra)
    Tyler Robertson
    Casey Fien
    Brian Duensing
    Jared Burton
    Glen Perkins
     
    (other options throughout the year are Guerra, Burnett, Lester Oliveros, Caleb Thielbar, Luis Perdomo, and perhaps Dakota Watts and Bruce Pugh)
     
     
    Note: other free agent signings that I could live with: Ervin Santana, Joe Blanton, and perhaps even Joe Saunders.
     
     
    In part three, the focus will be on the position players and the notion that depth is a good thing.
  9. Shane Wahl
    This is the first part of four parts of my 2013 Twins blueprint. The following is an overview of the roster. Part two will focus on the pitchers, part three on the position players, and part four will be centered around both contingency plans for 2013 and looking toward the future beyond 2013.
     
    Last year, I actually put out three versions of a 2012 blueprint depending on payroll (110, 105, 100) and I was right about a few things. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit were added, and I even had Scott Diamond as a fifth starter in one of them.
     
    With regard to 2013, I have done a considerable amount of thinking and re-thinking. I had thought for some time that the Twins should trade Morneau for either two varying level prospects or one prospect and one MLB-ready pitcher. It is good to be constantly critical of one's perspective and to re-evaluate one's ideas. So, I have decided that the Twins best bet for 2013 and 2014-on is to not trade anybody in the offseason, instead signing two FA starting pitchers and maximizing the depth of the lineup and bench.
     
    What this means for 2013 is a roster that looks like this, barring injury:
     
    Denard Span
    Ben Revere
    Joe Mauer
    Josh Willingham
    Justin Morneau
    Trevor Plouffe
    Ryan Doumit
    Brian Dozier
    Pedro Florimon
     
    Chris Parmelee
    Jamey Carroll
    Darin Mastroianni
    Chris Herrmann
     
    Scott Diamond (awarded opening day, on principle)
    Edwin Jackson
    Shaun Marcum
    Liam Hendriks
    Sam Deduno (with LR Cole DeVries, Rochester's Kyle Gibson, PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, and David Bromberg on call, and the DL-ed Scott Baker as well--more on all of this in part two)
     
    Cole DeVries
    Tyler Robertson
    Anthony Slama (Deolis Guerra gets passed through waivers)
    Casey Fien
    Brian Duensing
    Jared Burton
    Glen Perkins
     
    This roster, including the arbitration guesses and the 3 year, $30 million contracts given to Jackson and Marcum, comes in at somewhere around $96 million (and this includes paying Nishioka and Blackburn). In other words, the Twins could have this team for the same cost as what the 2012 team was supposed to cost before certain releases and trades. There was a lot of money tied up in Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, and Matt Capps, making about 30% of the payroll dead weight.
     
    My 2013 roster removes the dead weight. The idea is to keep the best players and add good players to replace bad or mediocre players. This means what I refer to as a "Thome bench" and a "2006 quality rotation." Having a bench that always includes an impact bat is a vital thing for all good teams. That extra player either fills in for injured players or becomes the pinch hitter needed in close games. This would be Parmelee at the very beginning of the season, but would rotate between Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, Span, and Revere as well. Having "too much" is a good thing.
     
    I do not mean that a Johan Santana is being added, but bringing in Jackson and Marcum means bolstering the rotation in a strong way. There is no messing around with this kind of talent. They are better than everyone other than the 2012 Scott Diamond and glimpses of Scott Baker. The cost to add both is not bad at all and, again, this team costs just as much as the planned 2012 Twins team.
     
    In part two I will address the pitching staff in detail.
  10. Shane Wahl
    Last year, I actually put out three versions of a 2012 blueprint depending on payroll (110, 105, 100) and I was right about a few things. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit were added, and I even had Scott Diamond as a fifth starter in one of them.
     
    With regard to 2013, I have done a considerable amount of thinking and re-thinking. I had thought for some time that the Twins should trade Morneau for either two varying level prospects or one prospect and one MLB-ready pitcher. It is good to be constantly critical of one's perspective and to re-evaluate one's ideas. So, I have decided that the Twins best bet for 2013 and 2014-on is to not trade anybody in the offseason, instead signing two FA starting pitchers and maximizing the depth of the lineup and bench.
     
    What this means for 2013 is a roster that looks like this, barring injury:
     
    Denard Span
    Ben Revere
    Joe Mauer
    Josh Willingham
    Justin Morneau
    Trevor Plouffe
    Ryan Doumit
    Brian Dozier
    Pedro Florimon
     
    Chris Parmelee
    Jamey Carroll
    Darin Mastroianni
    Chris Herrmann
     
    Scott Diamond (awarded opening day, on principle)
    Edwin Jackson
    Shaun Marcum
    Liam Hendriks
    Sam Deduno (with LR Cole DeVries, Rochester's Kyle Gibson, PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, and David Bromberg on call, and the DL-ed Scott Baker as well--more on all of this below)
     
    Cole DeVries
    Tyler Robertson
    Deolis Guerra
    Casey Fien
    Brian Duensing
    Jared Burton
    Glen Perkins
     
    This roster, including the arbitration guesses and the 3 year, $30 million contracts given to Jackson and Marcum, comes in at somewhere around $97 million (and this includes paying Nishioka and Blackburn). In other words, the Twins could have this team for the same cost as the 2012 team. There was a lot of money tied up in Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, and Matt Capps, making about 30% of the payroll dead weight.
     
    My 2013 roster removes the dead weight and adds two very good pitchers. Marcum is about to turn 31 and has averaged 193 innings in seven seasons with Toronto and Milwaukee, compiling a 3.78 ERA and a 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson just turned 29 and has been in the majors in some capacity for 10 seasons already. Early in his career it appears he was in over his head, but in 2011 he posted a 3.79 ERA and this year he has a 3.77 ERA and has pitcher near 200 innings each season, combining for about a . . . 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson and Marcum are clearly very, very similar pitchers. And their similarity will be refreshing after the mirror-imaged Blackburn, Pavano, and Marquis this year.
     
    The general idea with the Rochester rotation would be Gibson limited to 5 innings and then 6 innings an outing in April and May respectively. If all goes well, he can be promoted. Walters, Bromberg, Vasquez, and Hernandez would join him while Baker gets rehab time.
     
    Speaking of Baker, Baker would get a base $2 million salary with huge incentive increases based on innings pitched and ERA. That salary would top out at $6 million.
     
    With regard to the bullpen, I include Guerra because he is out of options. Anthony Slama would be next in line if the Twins think Guerra would clear waivers since he clearly needs more time in Rochester. If Fien falters, or there is an injury Slama would be the guy to call on. Alex Burnett has an option, and I think the Twins should use it immediately to get him to work on command and striking more batters out.
     
    The bench is meant to be a return to the "Thome bench." This means that the Twins would have either a good replacement already up with the team in case of injury or one good-great bat on the bench for every single game (pinch hitting for Florimon, Dozier, or possibly Revere. As it turns out, Chris Parmelee appears to be the odd man out for the first several games of the season, but he can be worked into the rotation to give optimal rest for six other guys, especially Mauer, Morneau, Doumit, and Willingham. I still prefer a Willingham-Revere positional flip, but this would still work even if tey stayed where they are right now.
     
    Jamey Carroll might end up being the starter somewhere (I would say SS), but if not that just means he is a late-inning replacement and a backup at 3B, SS, and 2B.
     
    I realize that putting Chris Herrmann on this roster flies in the face with what I have said about AA and AAA, but I also think that Herrmann's value for 2013 is with the Twins has Doumit-lite, certainly getting a chance to take over Doumit's role as Mauer's catching partner in the future. Butera can be given a nice little salary to be the AAA catcher, working with pitchers as they come up through the system. Maybe he can be called up if there is an injury and certainly in September. But there is no reason to have him on the Twins roster. Herrmann, in my view, belonged in AAA by mid-season 2012 at the latest anyway. He also adds LF depth (and likely can adapt to RF and even 1B).
     
    Mastroianni would return in his role as a backup for all three OF positions and a speedster on the bases. It might not be a bad idea to also get him 2B time in emergency situations.
     
    Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, and Evan Bigley would be the Rochester OF/DH, with perhaps Tosoni or Bigley trying out at 1B. Eduardo Escobar and Chris Colabello would be the other players at Rochester who could factor into the 2013 Twins roster.
  11. Shane Wahl
    The discussion regarding outfield depth that took place earlier in the season was interesting because it had almost been assumed that the outfield was the brightest spot in the Twins system. In the early-to-mid part of the season, legitimate question marks about the outfield depth were raised. Joe Benson (24, AA/AAA), and Rene Tosoni (26, AA/AAA), the two prospects who had been with the Twins in 2011 for a bit of time, were struggling and struggling with injuries, and the only other prospect to be having a good year at the time was Oswaldo Arcia.
     
    Now at the beginning of September, things have changed dramatically, though it isn't because of a change in Benson or Tosoni. Instead, Oswaldo Arcia (21, AA) and Aaron Hicks (22, AA) have turned in good-to-great seasons at AA. Arcia has not missed a step in his promotion to AA. He posted a .328/.398/.557 line with 10 homers in 299 plate appearances. Hicks emerged with a 286/.384/.460 line that amounted to the highest OPS of his career since the GCL in 2008. He also increased his power (13 homers) and stole 32 bases in 43 attempts. The AAA/AAAA contingent of outfielders (Darin Mastroianni, Matt Carson, Evan Bigley and Wilkin Ramirez) provide good 4th and 5th OF options. Chris Herrmann (24, AA), while mainly a catcher this year, still would provide 5th OF status for the Twins and should be a solid bench player for the Twins in the near future.
     
    Further down the line, Lance Ray (23, A) and Danny Ortiz (22, A) each produced OK seasons, but still show promise and, most importantly, improved overall from 2011. Ray's .234/.327/.403 slash with 13 homers and and improved BB/K rate signals good progress in his development. Ortiz's .269/.313/.424 line with 8 homers is also a step in the right direction, and he was promoted early in the season from low-A.
     
    While Angel Morales (22, A) and JD Williams (21, low-A) are now big question marks, Nate Roberts (23, A) has been excellent once again. He posted a .299/.433/.427 slash in his repeat Beloit season and walked more than he struck out (44/37). If healthy in 2013, he could end the season in New Britain.
     
    Romy Jimenez (21, Rookie) turned in a great year for E-Town and Candido Pimentel (22, Rookie) had a small breakthrough there while also playing some second base. Most importantly, Max Kepler (19, Rookie) had a huge breakout season and is going to move on to Beloit next year with increased power and plate discipline. His statistics were a sight for sore eyes: .297/.387/.539 with 16 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers in 269 plate appearances. He is emerging as a top 10 prospect for the Twins. Finally, Byron Buxton (18, Rookie) was promoted from the GCL and actually improved a bit after the promotion.
     
    Dereck Rodriguez (20, Rookie) was very good (.783 OPS) for the GCL Twins and the Danny Valencia trade brought in another quality player in Jeremias Pineda (21, Rookie). While Rodriguez will likely start for E-Town next year, Pineda might move up to Beloit as a 4th OF.
     
    I have not discussed Rory Rhodes (21 A/Rookie)--who was a 3B, then a 1B, and is now a potential corner OF--nor did I mention Zach Larson (18, Rookie) or Kelvin Ortiz (20, Rookie) from the GCL.
     
    With Benson and Tosoni included, I have mentioned 23 outfield candidates from Mastroianni and Carson currently on the Twins 25 man roster to players drafted in 2012.
     
    Surely, these players range from potential stars to never-will-make-it-to-show-players, but they are all valuable contributors and demonstrate, as a whole, that there is significant OF depth in the system, especially up through Beloit.
     
    Only time will tell with these players, but I think it is now safe to say that there really is OF depth in the Twins' system.
  12. Shane Wahl
    Early this season, I wrote about 10 prospects who I believed would have breakout seasons. These are not top prospects but 25-50 ranking prospects who I believed would emerge into serious big league contenders down the road. Here is an update on them and my prognostication results are definitely mixed.
     
    (age), team, PA, slash, 2B/3B/HR, BB/K, SB/SBA
    or
    (age), team, IP, ERA, K/BB, WHIP
     
    The Good:
     
    Nate Roberts: (23-6), Beloit, 339, .303/.435/.435, 18/3/4, 43/34, 27/34. Roberts stayed in Beloit all year and put up very similar numbers to 2011, with the addition of a fantastic BB/K ratio and a bunch of stolen bases. If he stays healthy, He should be moving through the system quickly perhaps ending 2013 in New Britain.
     
    Matt Hauser:(24-5), FTM/NBR, 85 2/3, 3.05, 66/32, 1.272. Hauser excelled at Fort Myers and has held his own at New Britain. Not sure if the Twins plan to use him as a starter or reliever next year, but should be back at New Britain to start 2013.
     
    Danny Santana: (21-10), FTM, 529, .288/.331/.404, 21/9/6, 28/77, 16/27. Santana played as I had expected this season, and did improve his plate discipline a bit over last season. He is still quite young, but I would think has done enough to move to New Britain next year. He plays SS, 2B, and CF, so it will be interesting to see how his defense shapes up over the next few years.
     
    Angel Mata: (19-10), ELZ, 53 1/3, 3.38 55/34, 1.219. Mata is very young and has control issues, but he is definitely an exciting prospect to watch. Beloit will be a great test for him next year.
     
    Lance Ray: (22-11), FTM, 417, .240/.332/.412, 21/1/13, 49/80, 5/6. Ray has quietly put together a decent season after starting (again) miserably. He has improved his plate discipline and played 1B along with both OF corners. Like Roberts, he put up very similar numbers in 2011 and 2012, but with small improvements. That's a good sign for next year (I would think he starts at FTM).
     
    The Bad:
     
    J.D. Williams: (21-9), BEL, 389, .236/.314/.341, 14/2/6, 38/113, 23/31. Williams was fantastic in 2011 and has only pulled it together of late this season to prevent the season from being pretty ugly. Definitely a disappointment, but maybe he will turn it around next year back at Beloit.
     
    Pat Dean: (23-3), FTM, 150 1/3, 4.07, 77/33, 1.39. Dean's K rate is terrible. I question his future prospects at this point. Should stick at FTM to start the season and see if he can bounce back.
     
    Tim Shibuya: (22-11), BEL, 74, 5.59, 56/15, 1.392. Shibuya started out very well, then faltered, and then got injured. Not sure what to think about next year with him. He does have promise.
     
    Logan Darnell: (23-6), NBR, 151, 5.01, 97/46, 1.523. Darnell struggled off and on this season. He is headed to the AFL, and that will be a good test for him. Undoubtedly headed for NBR again next year.
     
    The Ugly:
     
    Tyler Grimes: (22-2), BEL, 365, .194/.307/.314, 16/3/5, 40/95, 7/13. This was just a very bad year for someone I thought would finish in Fort Myers. The ISO numbers are not terrible (.113 and .120), but he just cannot hit for average. He needs to go back to Beloit for 2013.
  13. Shane Wahl
    When coming to form one's beliefs or making evaluations about things, the rather vast ocean between blind faith and evidence sets up a stark contrast in reasoned (or un-reasoned) judgment. This post is not about evolution or theism, but about something much less important in the grand scheme of things.
     
    This post is about the Twins' evaluation of Anthony Slama.
     
    Let's first examine the evidence, sticking to Slama's minor league and major league statistics. In parts of four seasons in AAA Rochester, Slama has 146 2/3 inning pitched, a 2.21 ERA, 183 K, 72 BB (2.54 K/BB), and a 1.152 WHIP. In 2012, Slama has improved upon the K/BB rate (3.0) with a whopping 15.1 K/9 together with a 5 BB/9. Let me repeat, this year he has been striking out 15 batters per 9 innings.
     
    With such impressive AAA stats (and much the same or better at the lower levels in the minors), certainly Slama has seen ample time up with the Twins, right? He pitched 4 2/3 innings in 2010 and 2 1/3 innings in 2011. Yes, the guy striking out AAA batters at an incredibly high rate has only seven total innings up with the Twins.
     
    So, clearly stats lie, in the view of the relevant decision makers for the Twins.
     
    What, then, are the Twins basing their evaluation of Slama on instead? I submit that it is blind faith, but more importantly it is blind faith in their (the Twins' decision makers) ability to evaluate players and make projections into the major league future. Slama does not "have the stuff" and Gardenhire himself has made the claim that Slama's fastball is too straight vertically and horizontally for the majors, or in his eloquent words, "up here you've got to make it do something."
     
    Instead of using the evidence of Slama's AAA success to make a reasonable projection about his MLB projected performance, the Twins would rather rely on the faith they have in their seeing-eye assessment of Slama's stuff. AAA batters are actually pretty well-equipped to hit straight fastballs as well (in fact, that is usually the one thing hitters in AAA can do, even if they can't hit anything else and never make it to the majors).
     
    I could perhaps forgive this blind faith evaluation (in their own talents as evaluators, not in Slama) if the Twins A: had a bullpen full of better pitchers who were going to mean something for the Twins in the future, and B: if the Twins were in a division or wild card race and couldn't afford 20 innings given to a reliever they were leery of promoting.
     
    But neither A or B are true. While, Alex Burnett has been incredibly lucky not to get destroyed this year, he does have an option left and that should not be burned this season (it will next season, trust me!). But Jeff Gray is a pitching abomination. He (like Burnett) walks almost as many as he strikes out and he isn't striking many out to begin with. He has somehow been given 51 2/3 innings to pitch this year. And Gray has no future with the Twins, isn't getting better, and will be 31 in a few months.
     
    It is mind-boggling to me to consider the thought process involved in keeping Jeff Gray on the roster instead of Anthony Slama. Now, plenty of people at Twins Daily will wonder why one might complain about the last bullpen spot on a horrible team. Well, first, I am for improving the team at all roster spots if possible and it never matters how good or bad the team is in the first place. Second, is that there has to be some kind of justice in the baseball world! Anthony Slama deserves an opportunity with the Twins. We are also talking about livelihoods here as well.
     
    I have come to the point where I actually believe that the Twins are not promoting Slama because they are scared that he will succeed. That would prove them wrong and would make them have to question how they evaluate pitchers. The faithful do not like either of those two things happening.
  14. Shane Wahl
    Soon it will be time to actually get serious about next year (imagine being a Cubs fan). Maybe a title like Dr. StrangeGlove, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb of the 2012 Twins Season would be most appropriate here.
     
    An early blueprint for 2013:
     
    Trade Justin Morneau (Oakland, Texas, Tampa Bay would seem to be potential teams for this trade) for pitching prospects (hopefully at least one in AA or AAA) or even an arbitration-eligible pitcher. Maybe include paying for half of that $14 million left on Morneau's contract to sweeten the deal. Add in Anthony Swarzak to give pitching and Bigfoot back.
     
    Sign Shaun Marcum for 4 years and $50 million (12.5 per).
     
    Try to sign Scott Baker to a one-year deal worth $2 million base and another $6 million in incentives. If he doesn't want to agree to something like that, he should leave.
     
    Say goodbye to Matt Capps, Carl Pavano, and Alexi Casilla.
    Option, DFA, or outright Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, Jeff Gray, Kyle Waldrop/Carlos Gutierrez, Tyler Robertson, and three of: Manship, Deduno, Walters, Vasquez, Hernandez (the other two are fourth and fifth starters initially).
     
    Let Rochester be happy with Nick Blackburn.
     
    $67.25 (keeping half of Morneau's salary) plus $12 million plus 2-8 million equals $81.25-87.25 million.
     
    Off the 40-man, then: Morneau, Capps, Gray, Butera, Swarzak, Waldrop or Gutierrez, and two of Deduno, Manship, Walters, and Vasquez.
     
    On the 40-man, then: Marcum, Baker, Walters, Hicks, Herrmann, Pinto, Hermsen, Slama, pitcher acquired in Morneau trade, and potentially Vasquez.
     
    With arbitration players, the payroll jumps too $90 million if Baker performs at a high level. I will let that stand for what it's worth. Clearly if Baker only earns that $2 million, another starting pitcher could be added and payroll would still drop from 2012 (there was a lot tied up in Morneau, Pavano, Baker, Capps, and Liriano).
     
    Starting rotation in April:
     
    Marcum
    Diamond
    Hendriks (yes)
    Baker or Deduno or Walters
    or Vasquez or Manship
     
    LR: DeVries
    MI: Guerra
    MI: Oliveros/Fien
    MI: Slama
    SU: Duensing
    SU: Burton
    CL: Perkins
     
    (or flip Burton and Perkins)
     
    Position players (and keeping that OF situation as is . . . )
     
    Span CF
    Revere RF
    Mauer C
    Willingham LF
    Doumit DH
    Plouffe 3B
    Parmelee 1B
    Dozier 2B
    Florimon SS
     
    Carroll
    Herrmann
    Mastroianni
    Carson
     
     
    In Rochester:
    Gibson
    Bromberg
    Hermsen
    Deduno or Walters or
    Vasquez or Manship
     
    Hicks
    Escobar
    Arcia
    Benson
    Colabello
    Tosoni or Bigley
    Romero
    Butera (if he clears waivers, Lehmann otherwise)
     
    Ramirez, Chang, Burroughs, etc.
     
     
    In NBR:
     
    SP acquired for Morneau
    Stuifbergen
    etc.
     
     
    Gibson, the pitcher acquired for Morneau, Hermsen, and Bromberg could all take over the other two spots in the rotation, or all three if Hendriks falls apart next year.
     
    My thinking is that the Twins are an 80 win team next year without the addition of Marcum and the improvement of Hendriks, Parmelee, and Dozier (which one would think has to come in 2013). And Baker, Arcia, Hicks, and whoever is the SP acquired for Morneau are the x factors that could push them to over 90 wins.
     
    Some more notes:
     
    Hopefully personnel decisions are not made based on September and ST performances like they were this year. That time could be used to figure out how the MI plays out for next year, but hopefully not much more (I predict Florimon at SS and Dozier at 2B when Dozier comes back up in September).
     
    The pitching situation is not as egregious as people are making it out to be. First of all, when the correct decision is finally made about Duensing, the bullpen is anchored pretty well with him, Burton, and Perkins. Gray won't be back and Burnett has an option (and he just has to regress, right?). I don't like Swarzak for a variety of reasons and think DeVries should be rewarded. Free Anthony Slama, and then figure out the last two spots (with preference for Oliveros, Fien, and Guerra). Second, 2012 was a trial run for a number of pitchers, and aside from Hendriks, all of the AAA guys performed well. The disaster that opened the 2012 will not be repeated. Excluding Blackburn, Marquis, half-Pavano, and half-Liriano will go a long way in 2013.
     
    Some optimism abounds here, but overall the 2012 system improved quite a bit from a year ago. A 70-win total in 2012 (that might be optimistic itself) covers up the fact that the organization improved from the ground up this year. The problem was that the top faltered on many fronts, and strange inconsistencies in personnel decisions (treatment of Parmelee vs. Dozier, for instance) had negative impacts.
     
    While I said last year that I was looking forward to the Twins 2012 season, when I say the same thing about the 2013 season, I won't be lying.
  15. Shane Wahl
    Here are a bunch of players who could see a promotion in the second half. I certainly do not think all of them will and there are likely a few others who will be promoted, but it is my intention to point out some strong performances, even in limited time in some cases. A few of them are likely very soon (Rhodes, Roberts, Atherton, Bromberg) and many others are most likely early August moves if they happen at all.
     
    DSL to GCL:
     
    Adonis Pacheco, OF
    Ernesto Ciprian, OF
    Junior Subero, SP
    Javier Vargas, SP/RP
     
    GCL to ELZ:
     
    Dereck Rodriguez, OF
    Aderlin Mejia, SS
    Kuo Hua Lo, SP
     
    ELZ to BEL:
     
    Romy Jimenez, OF
    Rory Rhodes, 1B
    Niko Goodrum, SS
    Jonatan Arias, C
    Taylor Rogers, SP
    Dallas Gallant, RP
     
    BEL to FTM:
     
    Eddie Rosario 2B/CF
    Miguel Sano 3B
    Matthew Koch, C
    Nate Roberts, OF
    Steven Liddle 1B/OF
    David Hurlbut, RP
    Tyler Jones, SP/RP
    Tim Atherton, RP
     
    FTM to NBR:
     
    Daniel Ortz, OF
    Jairo Perez, 3B
    Josmil Pinto, C
    Ricky Bowen, RP
    Matthew Hauser, RP/SP
    Jose Gonzalez, RP
     
    NBR to ROC:
     
    Chris Herrmann, C
    Aaron Hicks, OF
    Evan Bigley, OF
    Chris Colabello, 1B
    Deibinson Romero, 3B
    Andrew Albers, SP/RP
    Steve Hirschfeld, SP
    David Bromberg, SP
     
    ROC to TWINS:
     
    Sam Deduno
    Sean Burroughs
    Deolis Guerra
    Anthony Slama (pending return)
  16. Shane Wahl
    While 60 is a big number, there are still guys left off this list who are worth watching. Here are my top 60 Twins prospects following the 2012 draft:
     
    Note: Liam Hendriks, Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee, and Rene Tosoni would have appeared on this list, but I am cutting their prospect status off.
     
    1. Miguel Sano (1, 2)
    2. Eddie Rosario (4, 19)
    3. Oswaldo Arcia (3, 10)
    4. Byron Buxton (NR)
    5. Aaron Hicks (2, 1)
    6. Liam Hendriks (5, 7)
    7. Jose Berrios (NR)
    8. Joe Benson (6, 8)
    9. Kyle Gibson (7, 4)
    10. Adrian Salcedo (8, 12)
    11. Chris Herrmann (13, 35)
    12. Alex Wimmers (5, 11)
    13. Max Kepler (12, 13)
    14. David Bromberg (19, 11)
    15. Travis Harrison (16, NR)
    16. Niko Goodrum (17, 24)
    17. Hudson Boyd (18, NR)
    18. Lester Oliveros (NR)
    19. B.J. Hermsen (22, 18)
    20. Levi Michael (20, NR)
    21. Luke Bard (NR)
    22. Deolis Guerra (29, 39)
    23. Manuel Solimon (15, 16)
    24. Angel Morales (14, 5)
    25. Matt Hauser (28, NR)
    26. Madison Boer (21, NR)
    27. Danny Santana (33, 50)
    28. Mason Melotakis (NR)
    29. Jairo Perez (26, NR)
    30. Nate Roberts (23, 27)
    31. J.T. Chargois (NR)
    32. Tom Stuifbergen (27, 32)
    33. JaDamion Williams (24, NR)
    34. Carlos Gutierrez (25, 15)
    35. Lance Ray (30, 41)
    36. Adam Walker (NR)
    37. Tim Shibuya (38, NR)
    38. Pat Dean (31, 23)
    39. Corey Williams (36, NR)
    40. Matthew Summers (37, NR)
    41. Tyler Duffey (NR)
    42. Tyler Robertson (34, NR)
    43. Josh Burris (NR)
    44. Lee Mazzilli (NR)
    45. Logan Darnell (39, 48)
    46. Danny Ortiz (41, 21)
    47. Matthew Koch (NR)
    48. Bobby Lanigan (40, 40)
    49. Bruce Pugh (46, 34)
    50. Zachary Jones (NR)
    51. James Beresford (48, 30)
    52. Angel Mata (44, NR)
    53. Josmil Pinto (NR)
    54. Kuo-Hua Lo (NR)
    55. Jorge Fernandez (NR)
    56. Steven Gruver (NR)
    57. Dakota Watts (47, 29)
    58. Jorge Polanco (50, NR)
    59. Christian Powell (NR)
    60. Michael Tonkin (NR)
  18. Shane Wahl
    Championship: Purdue 6, Indiana 5
     
    A nearly-empty stadium in Columbus is not the usual setting for a Purdue-IU matchup. Usually the rivalry brings out the best (or worst) of the schools' respective fans in packed stadiums and arenas. The two teams made up for the lack of fan frenzy with a ninth inning brawl around third base, of all places.
     
    After Field of Twins draft-endorsed catcher Kevin Plawecki's second homer of the tournament and 7th of the season put Purdue up 5-4 in the 8th inning, Indiana tied the game in the bottom of the inning on a sac fly (which came after a blatantly blown third strike call by the umpire). In the top of the ninth, Purdue put men on the corners. With one out, Eric Charles chopped a grounder to third, forcing a rundown. As Indiana's third basemen made the tag he pivoted and threw wildly to third base to try to get the runner advancing from first. The runner scored easily, but Charles, for whatever reason tried to make it all the way to third on the play.
     
    What happened next was either an intentionally violent slide or an example of a runner getting stuck between a head-first and feet-first slide and unintentionally running into the third basemen. The third baseman initially reacted, but stood up and Purdue coach Schrieber got in between the players. Then IU's shortstop charged into the back of the third basemen, knocking him down into Charles. Both benches poured out and Charles eventually threw a punch and was ejected. The melee last for a few minutes, but the game was delayed for over 15 minutes because one of the umpires was injured.
     
    The game resumed in the bottom of the ninth and Field of Twins draft-endorsed pitcher Nick Wittgren struck the first two batters out before coaxing a fly ball to center to end the game.
     
    Plawecki was named tournament MVP.
     
    Purdue will likely host in the CWS, but it will be at Gary's U.S. Steel Yard instead of in West Lafayette due to delayed construction on the new stadium.
     
    Michigan State is the only other team that could make it into the tournament as the Big Ten is a weak conference.
     
    Later in the week, I will wrap up a discussion of those players who could be drafted.
  19. Shane Wahl
    Game one: Michigan State def. Nebraska 10-9
    Game two: Ohio State def. Penn State 12-5
    Game three: Nebraska eliminated Penn State 12-3
    Game four: Indiana def. Michigan State 6-4
    Game five: Purdue def. Ohio State 5-4
     
    Game-by-game player notables:
     
    In game one, Tony Bucciferro was very good, giving up only one earned run in 8 innings.
    In game two, Jaron Long struggled for Ohio State, only going three innings.
    In game three, Michael Pritchard went 2-for-6 to continue a very strong tournament for the Big Ten's leader in batting average. Chad Christiansen hit is 10th homer.
    In game four, Sam Travis went 2-for-4 with a double. Joey DeNato gave up 4 runs in 7 2/3 innings.
    In game five, Big Ten hitter of the year, Kevin Plawecki went for 2-for-3 with 3 rbi, and a 2-run homer in the 7th.
     
    Nebraska plays Ohio State in an elimination game at noon (EST) today. The winner takes on Michigan State at 3:30 (EST). IU and Purdue face off at 7 (EST). I expect Nebraska to win the first game, but Michigan State to beat them. Purdue should handle IU. I imagine that Michigan State will work its way back to the title game by beating IU on Saturday.
     
    For those watching the nightcap, Kevin Plawecki impressed at the plate. He has a great approach. He is aggressive, but still works walks. And he delivered the key homer, with Purdue down a run.
  20. Shane Wahl
    Here is an update on my top 50 prospects list from February. I will actually construct a new list soon.
     
    1. Miguel Sano (2): Confirming the unanimous #1 ranking. Will go through some ups and downs this year and strikes out a lot, but his ceiling keeps getting higher. Ranking status: stays at the top.
     
    2. Aaron Hicks (1): Some scoffed at keeping Hicks so high. This season is a mixed bag of good and not-so-good for Hicks (as is true of many New Britain players, see throughout). His OPS is basically the same as FTM last year, but with a drop in OBP and a rise in SLG. (He had as many homers this year as he did all season last year). Perhaps the changes are an attempt to expand Hicks' offensive capabilities as was the case with Chris Parmelee through the years. One thing to be looking for is a decision about the switch-hitting status. The splits are still there this year. I would personally like to see Hicks try batting right against righties to see if he hits them better from that side. Ranking status: probably down a spot.
     
    3. Oswaldo Arcia (10): After a so-so 2011 season in Fort Myers, Arcia is hitting well again and is flat-out destroying RH pitching. Arcia has more walks this year than all of last year in Fort Myers. I would like to see him dominate in A+ for 2 more months, hopefully hitting better against lefties, before a late promotion to New Britain to get him ready for 2013. Ranking status: probably up a spot.
     
    4. Eddie Rosario (19): Rosario's offensive performance this year justifies my trepidation about putting him at the two spot, which was almost unanimous heading into the season. Granted, as a second baseman his numbers are still fantastic. But if he doesn't stick at second base, then his numbers are very good but not great. He's still young, though, and his BB/K rate after moving up a level has risen immensely, so that is a great sign. Ranking status: stays the same.
     
    5. Liam Hendriks (7): It would be nice if, given Hendriks performance as a Twin this year, there would be someone behind him on the list to knock Hendriks out of the top 5, but that isn't happening (especially if Dozier's days in the minors are over). And maybe it shouldn't as Hendriks needs more time mastering his approach in AAA. I really like what he can offer the Twins as a 3 or 4 starter down the road. Ranking status: stays the same.
     
    6. Joe Benson (8): Benson has been injured and demoted (foolishly) this year. He has enormous upside, but needs to hit the ball. I am more worried about some underlying injury than about any actual troubles with AAA pitching at the moment. Ranking status: drops one.
     
    7. Kyle Gibson (4): Gibson's injury doesn't affect his prospect status for me at the moment. He is on track to pitch some minor league innings late in the season. Ranking status: drops one.
     
    8. Adrian Salcedo (12): Salcedo's year has been bad. He just recently got hit in the face on a come-backer that came back too fast. Hopefully he can get it together in June again and show that he is worthy of Fort Myers at the moment. Ranking status: drops one.
     
    9. Chris Parmelee (14): The Twins were misguided in judging Parmelee by a September showing and spring training performance instead of his minor league track record. Finally at AAA for the first time, he is coming around and needs to stay there for an extended time. Ranking status: drops one.
     
    10. Brian Dozier (36): Dozier is going to be a solid player. He may not be great, but he is going to get the job done, and I will say that the ceiling for him is still up in the air. Good defensively and offensively is what the Twins need. He sounds smart, knows what he is doing, and cares about achieving as much as he can. I actually liked seeing him struggle against Gavin Floyd. He will learn from it. Ranking status: up to 6.
     
    ----
     
    11. Alex Wimmers (5): Terrified for him. Ranking status: stays the same.
     
    12. Max Kepler (13): Can't wait to see him dominate E-Town. Ranking status: stays the same.
     
    13. Chris Herrmann (35): Big season to shine. Ranking status: stays the same.
     
    14. Angel Morales (5): Really struggling. Ranking status: drops several.
     
    15. Manuel Soliman (16): Injured, hopefully gets it going. Ranking status: drops a few.
     
    16. Travis Harrison (NR): Very interested to see him actually playing. Ranking status: stays the same.
     
    17. Niko Goodrum (24): Should excel in E-Town, move to Beloit late. Ranking status: stays the same.
     
    18. Hudson Boyd (NR): Same as Harrison. Ranking status: stays the same.
     
    19. David Bromberg (11): Excited to see him striking people out in AA. Has to be promoted soon and I would think is a Twin at some point this year. Ranking status: rises several.
     
    20. Levi Michael (NR): Not a great start, but the plate discipline is there. stays the same
     
    ----
     
    21. Madison Boer (NR) drops some
    22. B.J. Hermsen (18) rises some
    23. Nate Roberts (27) drops some
    24. JaDamion Williams (NR) drops some
    25. Carlos Gutierrez (15) drops some
    26. Jairo Perez (NR) rises a bit
    27. Tom Stuifbergen (32) drops some
    28. Matt Hauser (NR) rises some
    29. Deolis Guerra (39) rises some
    30. Lance Ray (41) stays the same
    31. Pat Dean (23) stays the same
    32. Scott Diamond (26) rises some
    33. Danny Santana (50) rises some
    34. Tyler Robertson (NR) stays the same
    35. Terry Doyle (NR) gone
    36. Corey Williams (NR) rises some
    37. Matthew Summers (NR) stays the same
    38. Tim Shibuya (NR) rises some
    39. Logan Darnell (48) stays the same
    40. Bobby Lanigan (40) rises some
    41. Danny Ortiz (21) stays the same
    42. Danny Rams (46) drops some
    43. Rory Rhodes (HM) drops some
    44. Angel Mata (NR) stays the same
    45. Evan Bigley (42) drops off
    46. Bruce Pugh (34) rises some
    47. Dakota Watts (29) stays the same
    48. James Beresford (30) rises some
    49. Anderson Hidalgo (31) drops off
    50. Jorge Polanco (NR) stays the same
  21. Shane Wahl
    Final standings:
    [TABLE]


    [/TD]

    [TD]



    1. Purdue
    17-7
    .708
    41-12
    .774


    2. Indiana
    16-8
    .667
    30-26
    .536


    3. Penn State
    15-9
    .625
    29-25
    .537


    4. Nebraska
    14-10
    .583
    34-21
    .618


    5. Michigan State
    13-11
    .458
    35-19
    .648


    6. Ohio State
    11-13
    .458
    31-25
    .554


    Illinois
    11-13
    .458
    28-25
    .528


    Minnesota
    11-13
    .458
    29-27
    .518


    9. Iowa
    10-14
    .417
    23-27
    .460


    10. Michigan
    8-16
    .333
    22-34
    .393


    11. Northwestern
    6-18
    .250
    18-36
    .333
    [/TABLE]
     
     
    Today's games: Penn State vs. Ohio State and Nebraska vs. Michigan State
     
     
    Purdue is the only team guaranteed of advancing to the CWS without winning the tournament. Michigan State is the only other team with a chance. The rest are going to have to win the Big Ten tournament and get an automatic bid.
     
    I don't see that happening. The Boilermakers are in a class by themselves in this conference.
     
    Next week I will give a final rundown of all of the draft-worthy players, but here are the guys to watch in the tournament (and CWS):
     
    Purdue:
    Kevin Plawecki
    Nick Wittgren
    (cut above the rest)
    Eric Charles
    Cameron Perkins
    Blake Mascarello
     
    Indiana:
    Sam Travis (the freshman will get drafted, but he will likely stay another year at IU)
    Kyle Schwarber
    Joey DeNato
     
    Penn State:
    Jordan Steranka
    Joe Kurrasch
     
    Nebraska:
    Michael Pritchard
    Josh Scheffert
    Chad Christensen
     
    Michigan State:
    Tony Bucciferro
    Ryan Jones
    David Garner
    Jordan Keur
    Torsten Boss
     
    That's a list of 18 guys who could be in the minors later this year (and add T.J. Oakes)
     
    I will be posting more after today's games.
  22. Shane Wahl
    Standings:
    [TABLE]


    1. Purdue
    16-5
    .762
    39-10
    .796


    2. Penn State
    13-8
    .619
    27-24
    .529


    Indiana
    13-8
    .619
    26-26
    .500


    4. Michigan State
    12-9
    .571
    33-17
    .660


    Nebraska
    12-9
    .571
    32-19
    .627


    6. Ohio State
    11-10
    .524
    30-22
    .577


    7. Minnesota
    10-11
    .476
    28-25
    .528


    8. Illinois
    9-12
    .429
    26-24
    .520


    9. Iowa
    8-13
    .381
    20-26
    .435


    10. Michigan
    7-14
    .333
    21-31
    .404


    11. Northwestern
    6-18
    .250
    17-33
    .340
    [/TABLE]
     
    The Gophers have certainly struggled as of late, falling 5 spots in a few weeks. Purdue has clinched the title. Now here's a look at some draft prospects (15 listed, 22 Big Ten + Nebraska players were drafted in 2011):
     
    Purdue:
    Kevin Plawecki, R, © Jr. :
    185 AB, .368/.459/.562, 17 doubles / 2 triples / 5 homers, 23 BB / 8 K, 3 SB / 6 SBA
     
    Eric Charles, R, (2B) Sr.:
    195, .369/.440/.436, 11/1/0, 21/20, 16/19
     
    Cameron Perkins, R, (3B) Jr.:
    198, .369/.419/.545, 14/0/7, 12/13, 8/11
     
    Nick Wittgren, RHP, Jr.:
    31.1 IP, 2.01 ERA, 32K / 9BB
     
    Blake Mascarello, LHP, Sr.:
    58.2, 1.69, 42/8
     
    Minnesota:
    TJ Oakes, RHP, Jr.:
    92.2, 1.94, 74/14
     
    Penn State:
    Jordan Steranka, L (1B) Sr.:
    206, .364/.391/.617, 18/2/10, 10/35, 2/3
     
    Nebraska:
    Michael Pritchard, L (OF) So.:
    185, .384/.441/.432, 9/0/0, 17/10, 6/9
     
    Ohio State:
    Jaron Long, RHP, So.:
    92.1, 1.85/59/10
     
    Indiana:
    Sam Travis, R, (1B) Fr.:
    202, .327/.411/.515, 14/0/8, 28/35, 4/5
     
    Michigan State:
    Jordan Keur, R (OF) Jr.:
    211, .365/.449/.427, 13/0/0, 25/23, 8/17
     
    Ryan Jones, R, (2B) Jr.:
    221, .371/.433/.498, 15/2/3, 27/17, 8/10
     
    Torsten Boss, L (3B/RF) Jr.:
    197, .325/.441/.492, 12/3/5, 36/39, 11/14
     
    Tony Bucciferro, RHP, Sr.:
    91.1, 3.05, 76/19
     
    Illinois:
    Jordan Parr, R (IF/OF), So.:
    189, .354/.401/.534, 13/3/5, 14/25, 6/16
     
    Honorable mentions: Josh Scheffert, Joe Kurrasch, Lance Breedlove, David Garner, Joey DeNato
  23. Shane Wahl
    Because there has to be something positive to talk about, and in part as a lead-in to going through my top 50 prospects heading into the year, there are a number of players of interest to look at instead of looking at Carl Pavano, Jason Marquis, and Nick Blackburn starts. Here are 6 stories at each currently-playing level (and one extra):
     
    At Rochester:
    1. Ben Revere is hitting well again, and while he is not drawing walks, it is interesting to see that batting average rise above .320. I still wonder what the season would look like if the Twins had decided, properly, to make Willingham be a professional baseball player and move to RF while Revere platooned in LF with Plouffe or by now, Matt Carson. That decision to keep the Hammer in left had a chain effect. Parmelee was kept where he didn't belong. Clete Thomas and Eric Komatsu were signed and Mastroianni has been brought up. Those last three moves made the nice compliment to Revere, Matt Carson, not a possibility, even though it looks like a good platoon in LF with Revere and Carson. Willingham is going to have to move to RF or maybe first base. Or at least he should. I don't really understand it. I am not claiming that this would have been a monumental shift in the outcome of the season, but it is undoubtedly the case that Revere would have brought more than those players trying to play RF this year.
     
    2. Matt Carson is hitting very well. .780 OPS, and he can play all three OF spots. Can hit the ball a long way, even if he has only homered once so far.
     
    3. Anthony Slama's numbers are ridiculously good. He is deserving of a shot with this team struggling so much. I almost would say that the Twins are trying to save face . . . like they don't want to promote him and have it turn out that he is a good reliever after all of this time keeping him in AAA while he dominated every year. The walks do not make his WHIP egregious at all.
     
    4. Deolis Guerra will be up with the Twins this year. And it won't just because the Twins have to see what he can do--he will have deserved the chance. The velocity is down, but he and Slama are interesting hurlers who don't hurl very hard, yet are still dominating at triple AAA.
     
    5. Lester Oliveros. Powerish reliever, should get a chance again with the Twins this year. He got some good innings in AA since the AAA bullpen was crammed. With Guerra, could be an effective RH middle relief duo who pitch rather differently (and maybe they may Alex Burnett a trade candidate)
     
    6. Pedro Florimon. A solid pickup to add minor league depth, but may be appearing this year for the Twins if injury hits any of the three middle infielders.
     
    At New Britain:
     
    1. Deibinson Romero is returning to serviceability, and at a position of need for the Twins right now. I am surprised that he has not been called up to AAA yet, but given that the Twins have sent their two third basemen down to AAA, my surprise is unfounded.
     
    2. Chris Colabello is a good story. The indy league acquisition is holding his own at AA with a .768 OPS. He has shown some good power.
     
    3. Aaron Hicks--the prospect some Twins fans have come to love to hate--is doing fairly well this year and is showing that he belongs at AA. He is striking out too much, but is on base for a 15 homer/30 steal season this year.
     
    4. Steve Hirschfeld--off-speed pitcher who is repeating New Britain with slightly better numbers. He is not a strikeout pitcher, but 32 in 40.2 innings isn't terrible.
     
    5. David Bromberg--Please let this poor guy have a comeback year. A lot of people have forgotten about Bromberg who a few years ago looked like the guy who would be the first replacement once the Twins starting pitching started going down the toilet. He turns 25 in September. As a starter for New Britain, he has been dominant. He has struck out 20 in his last 16 innings while giving up only five hits and no runs.
     
    6. Andrew Albers--Albers has had some struggles as a starter, but he profiles as a middle or long reliever. He has struck out 34 and walked only three in 42 innings.
     
    At Fort Myers:
    1. Oswaldo Arcia--It was a little scary seeing Arcia struggle out of the gate this year after falling off last year after his promotion to Fort Myers. He still strikes out too much, but he has already drawn more walks this year than he did in nearly twice the time in Fort Myers last year. If his numbers keep improving and he gets above the .850 OPS mark, he may be moving up to New Britain.
     
    2. Danny Santana--Santana has hit better than I thought, and I actually had high expectations for him this year. He is young like Arcia, but still getting the job done at high-A. The .430 slugging from the middle infielder is very encouraging. The 4/18 BB/K ratio is not. He should work on his plate discipline and he may also be knocking on the door for a promotion late this season.
     
    3. Lance Ray--Ray's numbers in Fort Myers project to be almost identical to those last year in Beloit. That's good in itself, but he also has improved with BB/K rate significantly at the same time. He could be a valuable corner OF/1B guy for the Twins down the road. He is crushing RH pitching this year.
     
    4. Jairo Perez--Perez is showing that his gaudy Beloit numbers in 2011 weren't some fluke. He is killing LH pitching. If he can manage 3B at all, he might be a guy to see time if the post-Danny Valencia era arrives soon.
     
    5. Ricky Bowen--Bowen has pitched 24 innings, striking out 20 and walking only five. He is rather old for Fort Myers, so I would like to see what he does in New Britain.
     
    6. Matthew Hauser--Another guy who belongs in New Britain rather soon. Hauser throws hard and strikes guys out. He has now logged over 62 innings at Fort Myers with 63 strikeouts and 22 walks.
     
    At Beloit:
     
    1. Miguel Sano--Sano hasn't slowed down--he has sped up. And now he has more walks than he did all of last year. He could hit 30 homers this year if he stays in Beloit. He strikes out a lot, but that shouldn't shy the organization away from promoting him at some point this year. Striking out isn't the end of the world, and this kind of power is obviously terribly rare in the organization.
     
    2. Eddie Rosario--The power numbers are down, but Rosario's BB/K rate is fantastic (20/17) and the .830 OPS is still very good. The homers are becoming doubles, but that is OK, especially if he can stick at 2B. He still needs ample time at Beloit this year.
     
    3. Matthew Koch--The sample size is very small (49 plate appearances), but Koch's OPS is .879 and he has two homers. Oh, and he is a catcher.
     
    4. Adam Pettersen--The .711 OPS for the guy forced to move all-around the field defensively has been a good showing. I actually think he showed perhaps be promoted first to Fort Myers given his age and defensive versatility. And he was born eight years to the day after yours truly, so there's that.
     
    5. Tim Shibuya--Shibuya just threw a complete game shutout and has been excellent with very similar projected stats from E-Town. He could be a fast-riser in the system plagued by starting pitching prospect injuries and starting pitchers who are terrible yet still pitch in MLB.
     
    6. A.J. Achter--Not sure why he isn't pitching at Fort Myers already. He now has 120+ innings at Beloit with 131 Ks and 40 BB. He is dominating righties this year.
     
    And one more:
     
    My adopted prospect, Chris Herrmann. In the interest of having two catchers on this "roster" I wanted to include Herrmann. He is not repeating his plate discipline from 2011, and that is rather alarming. His power numbers have certainly jumped. Hopefully he can put it altogether in the remainder of the year.
     
    So, that's:
     
    C: Chris Herrmann and Matthew Koch.
    1B: Chris Colabello and Lance Ray
    2B: Eddie Rosario and Adam Pettersen
    SS: Pedro Florimon and Danny Santana
    3B: Miguel Sano, Jairo Perez, and Deibinson Romero
    OF: Ben Revere, Matt Carson, Aaron Hicks, and Oswaldo Arcia
     
    Pitchers: Steve Hirschfeld, David Bromberg, Andrew Albers, Tim Shibuya, Anthony Slama, Deolis Guerra, Lester Oliveros, Ricky Bowen, Matt Hauser, and A.J. Achter
  24. Shane Wahl
    I waited almost a full month to update the status of my "prospects to watch." I actually wish I could attribute the lag to laziness, but I was waiting for some of these guys to turn it around so that I would look smarter. It didn't really work out that well, but there is some progress:
     
    BELOIT:
     
    JD Williams, OF (Age: 21.6, SH): 111 PA, .222/.306/.313 (.619), 7/1/0, 11/34, 8/10. Williams is exciting and he is slowly hitting better as the year goes on. End of Year: Should finish 2012 in Beloit.
     
    Tyler Grimes, IF (21.11, RH): 119, .180/.311/.350 (.661), 9/1/2, 13/20, 4/6. Grimes is not hitting much at all, but he is drawing walks. EoY: Should finish 2012 in Beloit.
     
    Tim Shibuya, RHS (22.9) (SH-BOOYAH): 35 IP, 2.83 ERA, 30/7, 1.257 WHIP, 7.7/1.8 K/BB rate. Shibuya has been very good, with fairly similar projected numbers from last year, though the K/BB rate is down a bit (still fantastic though). EoY: Late season promotion to Fort Myers.
     
    FORT MYERS:
     
    Danny Santana SS/2B/CF (21.6, SH): 150, .301/.320/.425 (.745), 5/2/3, 4/16, 4/7. I love what Santana has done this year. He will need to gain some plate discipline this year so that he doesn't turn into the MI version of Ben Revere (though Santana clearly actually possesses power). EoY: probably ends season in Fort Myers, could be pushed in August to New Britain.
     
    Lance Ray, LF/RF (22.9, LH): 130, .239/.331/.440 (.771), 10/0/4, 16/28, 2/3. Very similar projections from last year's Beloit number, but with some added good news: Ray is striking out a lot less and drawing more walks. Mostly playing the corner OF positions, adding depth to the system there. EoY: likely to finish in Fort Myers, but could be pushed to New Britain in August.
     
    Matt Hauser, RHR (24.2): 20.2, 3.48, 19/6, 1.258, 8.3/2.6. Hauser has basically repeated his 2011 FTM performance, but with more control. EoY: Should be promoted to New Britain soon and will finish 2012 there.
     
    Pat Dean, LHS (23): 47.1, 3.23, 21/12, 1.415, 4.0/2.3. Dean's K rate is terrible. He's been effective, but he won't go anywhere with such a terribly low number of strikeouts. EoY: should finish at Fort Myers.
     
    NEW BRITAIN:
     
    Logan Darnell, LHS (23.3): 36.2, 5.40, 23/15, 1.500, 5.6/3.7. Darnell is struggling as well and the K/BB rate is really bad. Instead of building off of 2011's 5.9/1.2, he has gone backwards. EoY: should finish in New Britain.
     
    -----
     
    I will call this a mixed bag at this point. Williams and Grimes are young and can still get it together. Dean and Darnell are very disappointing and make the lack of good left-handed pitching in the system even more apparent with their struggles. On the other hand, Santana and Ray are exceeding expectations somewhat, and Hauser and Shibuya are performing very well.
  25. Shane Wahl
    Well, about three weeks after I called for it, Francisco Liriano is moving to the bullpen. Plenty of people like this move and yet they and others would seem to prefer Liriano be used only in a mop-up role or anything staying away from "high-leverage" situations.
     
    First, there must be some way for the 2012 Presidential candidates to work "high-leverage" into the political overused meme/slogan world like "change" and "family values" and "job creators." We know what these terms mean, but not who is actually suited to bring about, reinvigorate, or create, and with regard to high-leverage situations, the picture isn't really clear either.
     
    Sure, we can understand what constitutes such a situation--generally in the final three innings in very close games, especially with men on base. But do we really know who is best-suited to pitch in such situations?
     
    Well there seems to be widespread agreement that Liriano is not cut out for them because of certain beliefs people have about his mental make-up. He "can't handle the pressure" is perhaps the most commonly-shared belief.
     
    But, as is good practice with all commonly-shared beliefs, the important question to ask--"Is it true?"--hasn't really been asked.
     
    We've seen the breakdown happen, often in the second inning. Liriano gives up a walk and a hit, and then a big hit and things just spiral out of control as we see his body language change and his pitches start movin' on up.
     
    But is this a matter of not being able to handle the pressure? I think no. The alternative possibility is that when things start to crumble, Liriano looks around and says to himself "look, I messed (the expletive would actually be warranted here) this up again" and instead of anxiety taking over him, what he does is turn to "pout mode."
     
    Again, as is common in the political world, I will offer up anecdotal evidence that perhaps means nothing and is absolutely useless:
     
    I played with two pitchers as a kid and high schooler who Liriano makes me think of . . . not just because they were left-handed (maybe the real anecdotal truth is that pouting is more common in lefties?), but that they both: A. threw hard and B. were pouters when they started losing control or giving up hits. As soon as the pouting started, the best course of action was immediate removal. Now in the one case, the guy apparently figured it out because he went on to pitch for some years for the Fargo-Moorhead Red Hawks after a very brief stint in Rookie ball in the Padres organization. And the vast majority of his appearances were starts. The other guy was a mess as a starter, but then in summer league baseball, our coach ended up using him in relief-only situations and he performed a lot better.
     
    Often times this pitcher came in with guys on base and proceeded to strike batters out. These were guys on base produced by another pitcher . . . there was no "I screwed this up" moment that caused the body language change and the total inability to be effective.
     
    Maybe Liriano just really is incapable of handling pressure, but maybe this alternative explanation for his breakdown has some merit. I think people will be surprised in how well he will perform if given the chance to do so in those high-leverage situations.
     
    Unfortunately, what is most likely to happen is that Liriano will pitch a few innings here and there in meaningless games in mop-up situations cleaning up someone else's mess after a poor start. Something totally beneath his talent level, but he will probably do pretty well and maybe in 3-4 weeks he will be re-inserted into the rotation where he will struggle again and the Twins and Liriano will be right back where they started.
×
×
  • Create New...