Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Shane Wahl

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,585

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Blog Entries posted by Shane Wahl

  1. Shane Wahl
    I contend that there is no reason to keep certain players who are blocking prospects in the minor league system. I cannot imagine that minor league attendance is really driven by aging players.
     
    From Rochester:
     
    Chris Rahl
    Eric Farris
    Doug Bernier
    Mark Hamburger
    Aaron Thompson (potential add-on trade bait)
    Kris Johnson (I know, but the future? potential add-on trade bait)
     
    To Rochester, given these 6 moves:
     
     
    Kennys Vargas
    Aaron Hicks
    Eddie Rosario
    Ryan O'Rourke
    Cole Johnson
    Jim Fuller
  2. Shane Wahl
    This is the second installment breaking down each minor league affiliate for players to watch as the season winds to a close. The GCL has six players worthy of mention:
     
    1. Amaurys Minier, SH, LF/1B, DOB: 1/30/96
     
    2014 statistics: 90 plate appearances, .304/.378/.456, 6 double, 0 triples, 2 homer, 9 walk, 29 strikeouts, 0 steals, 2 times caught stealing.
     
    Minier has shown big improvements in his second stint in the GCL. His power is still developing and there are still many improvements to make, but Minier is the biggest bright spot on the GCL roster by far.
     
    2. Alexis Tapia, RHP, DOB: 8/10/95
     
    2014 statistics: 16.2 innings, 2.70 ERA, 17 strikeouts, 1 walk.
     
    Tapia's K and BB rates have improved significantly from his 2013 season in the DSL.
     
    3. Rafael Valera, RH, Util, DOB: 8/15/94
     
    2014 statistics: 78 PA, .333/.462/.429 (.890), 4 doubles, 1 triple, 0 homers, 13 walks, 5 strikeouts, 1 stolen base, 1 time caught stealing
     
    Significant improvement over his 2013 DSL numbers. Lots of walks.
     
    4. Wilfredy Lirianzo, RHP, DOB: 10/26/94
     
    2014 statistics: 8.2 IP, 1.04 ERA, 13 strikeouts, 5 walks
     
    Lirianzo was fantastic in 2013 in the DSL and looks to be continuing to strike batters out in the GCL. He is still very young.
     
    5. Roberto Gonzalez, LH, OF, DOB: 3/14/95
     
    2014 statistics: 39 PA, .270/.308/.351 (.659), 3 doubles, 0 triples, 0 homers, 2 walks, 16 strikeouts, 3 steals, 1 time caught stealing
     
    Drafted in the 15th round of this year's draft, Gonzalez is struggling with strikeouts but also could grow into a solid speed-first guy.
     
    6. Nelson Molina, LH, INF, DOB: 4/30/95
     
    2014 statistics: 71 PA, .259/.353/.328 (.681), 0 doubles, 2 triples, 0 homers, 9 walks, 4 strikeouts, 5 steals, 0 times caught stealing
     
    Molina was drafted in the 11th round of the 2013 draft and has rebounded from a bad first season in the GCL.
  3. Shane Wahl
    My post 2014 draft list of the top 70 prospects in the Twins organization:
     
    1. Byron Buxton
    2. Miguel Sano
    3. Alex Meyer
    4. Jose Berrios
    5. Kohl Stewart
    6. Eddie Rosario
    7. Jorge Polanco
    8. Kennys Vargas
    9. Nick Gordon
    10. Danny Santana
    11. Trevor May
    12. Stephen Gonsalves
    13. Nick Burdi
    14. Travis Harrison
    15. Lewis Thorpe
    16. Adam Walker
    17. Max Kepler
    18. Sean Gilmartin
    19. Fernando Romero
    20. Michael Cederoth
    21. Michael Tonkin
    22. A.J. Achter
    23. Zach Jones
    24. Niko Goodrum
    25. Yorman Landa
    26. Lester Oliveros
    27. Aderlin Mejia
    28. Daniel Ortiz
    29. Amaurys Minier
    30. Deibinson Romero
    31. Randy Rosario
    32. Jorge Felix
    33. Dalton Hicks
    34. D.J. Baxendale
    35. Tyler Duffey
    36. Jason Wheeler
    37. James Beresford
    38. Levi Michael
    39. Logan Darnell
    40. Adrian Salcedo
    41. Tyler Jones
    42. Brett Lee
    43. Taylor Rogers
    44. Aaron Slegers
    45. Jason Kanzler
    46. Alex Wimmers
    47. Mason Melotakis
    48. Edgar Ibarra
    49. Cole Johnson
    50. Zach Larson
    51. Brian Navaretto
    52. Sam Clay
    53. Ryan Eades
    54. Luke Bard
    55. John Curtiss
    56. Matt Tomshaw
    57. Mitch Garver
    58. Chad Christensen
    59. Matt Koch
    60. Todd Van Steensel
    61. Steven Gruver
    62. Kyle Knudson
    63. Hudson Boyd
    64. Mike Kvasnicka
    65. Stuart Turner
    66. Brandon Peterson
    67. Pat Kelly
    68. Andrew Cutura
    69. Jared Wilson
    70. Madison Boer
  4. Shane Wahl
    Here are some possible promotions throughout the minor league system. This is not meant as an actual prediction or plan, but I am simply laying out the possibilities.
     
    From Cedar Rapids to Fort Myers:
     
    J.D. Williams (OF)
    Jason Kanzler (CF)
    Mitch Garver (C, 1B)
    Chad Christensen (OF, 1B)
    Ivory Thomas (OF)
     
    Kohl Stewart (RHS)
    Todd Van Steensel (RHR)
    Hudson Boyd (RHR)
    Jared Wilson (RHR)
     
    (release John Murphy)
     
    From Fort Myers to New Britain:
     
    Levi Michael (2B/SS)
    Jorge Polanco (2B/SS)
    Dalton Hicks (1B)
    Adam Walker (RF)
     
    Jose Berrios (RHS)
    Jason Wheeler (LHS)
    Matt Tomshaw (LHP)
    Tyler Jones (RHR)
    Madison Boer (RHR)
    Alex Wimmers (RHS)
     
     
    From New Britain to Rochester:
     
    Danny Ortiz (OF)
    Kennys Vargas (1B)
    Reynaldo Rodriguez (1B/OF)
     
    Sean Gilmartin (LHS)
    Cole Johnson (RHR)
    Lester Oliveros (RHR)
     
    (Release Tony Thomas and Brad Boyer)
     
    From Rochester to the Twins:
     
    Deibinson Romero (3B)
    Trevor May (RHS)
    A.J. Achter (RHR)
    Deolis Guerra (RHR)
    Michael Tonkin (RHR)
     
    (Release Chris Rahl, Brad Nelson, Scott Diamond, and Brooks Raley from Rochester)
     
    (Trade/demote/release Kevin Correia, Jared Burton, Jason Kubel, etc.)
  5. Shane Wahl
    30. Aderlin Mejia, SS/2B/Util, SH, DOB: 5/12/92
    2013 A+: 328 plate appearances, .308/.359/.349 (.708, .664 career), 10 doubles, 1 triple, 0 homers, 26 walks, 30 strikeouts, 14 stolen bases, 10 times caught stealing
     
    Mejia has been fortunate to be in the right place (Fort Myers) at the right time when that team suddenly needs a player due to injury. Mejia ran with the opportunity this year at Fort Myers, even though he basically jumped from the GCL. That's a big jump, but Mejia still produced as a solid contact hitter who gets a decent amount of walks while rarely striking out. He played all over the place, but most importantly he played good defense at shortstop. A lot screams "younger version of James Beresford" but hopefully Mejia can add some pop to his bat. He will really benefit from a full season at Fort Myers next year.
     
     
    29. Dakota Watts, RHR, DOB: 11/16/87
    2013 A+/AA (AA stats): 35.1 innings, 0.76 ERA, 29 k/10 bb (8.2/4.6 k/bb career)
     
    Watts has struggled with inconsistency and injuries in his career, but was lights out in the Eastern League. He could challenge for a bullpen spot in ST next year or he will certainly be the setup man or closer for Rochester when the season starts. I hope for the Twins to give him a chance by trading away Jared Burton and Casey Fien. Watts was not protected for some inane reason involving Eric Fryer, an extra OF, and a few AAAA-quality "starters" but hopefully he isn't selected in the Rule 5 Draft.
     
     
    28. J.D. Williams, SH, LF/CF DOB: 11/20/90
    2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 486, .265/.372/.403 (.775) (.729), 17-6-9, 66-105, 26-13
     
    Williams was looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2012 and he really did so in Cedar Rapids, posting an .852 OPS. His numbers really fell after his promotion to Fort Myers 2/3 of the way through the season. There is still quite a bit of promise and Williams is perhaps only second to Buxton in speed in the organization. Much of the drop at A+ came in slugging, so we will see if Williams can get that pop back and force a promotion about 2/3 of the way through 2014.
     
    27. Yorman Landa, RHS, DOB: 6/11/94
    2013 ELZ: 55, 2.78, 46/29 (7.8/5.6)
     
    Clearly Landa needs to gain control of his pitches, but he actually improved some in that regard while moving up from GCL. He is still very young with good stuff and there is a lot of promise. He turns 20 in the middle of 2014 and will be in Cedar Rapids at the time.
     
    26. A.J. Achter, RHR, DOB: 8/27/88
    2013 AA/AAA (combined stats): 60.1, 2.54, 56/33 (9.6/3.2)
     
    Achter is better than Anthony Slama, but the Twins seem to have similarly soured on him due to an increased walk rate in 2013. I saw him as the next guy to be called up from AAA (along with Watts) as a good Michael Tonkinesque kind of pitcher. But the Twins didn't protect because protecting Eric Fryer is somehow a better idea. Hopefully, he isn't selected in the Rule 5 Draft.
     
     
    25. Randy Rosario, LHS, DOB: 5/18/94
    2013 ELZ: 44.2, 2.82, 37/18 (8.0/4.3)
     
    Rosario is another young sub-A ball pitcher in the system who shows great promise. He gave up some hits in 2013, but still has yet to surrender a home run in 118 innings of pro ball. He will start the season at Cedar Rapids or join Cedar Rapids after EST.
     
     
    24. Tyler Duffey, RHS, DOB: 12/27/90
    2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 121, 3.64, 91/23 (7.6/1.6)
     
    Duffey was dominant for Cedar Rapids in the first half of the year. He went through a rough patch in Fort Myers, but that was to be expected. They moved him between the rotation and bullpen, but he still ended with a solid number of innings. He will start next season back in A+.
     
     
    23. Niko Goodrum, SS/3B, SH, DOB: 2/28/92
    2013 A-: 455, .260/.364/.369 (.732, .702), 22-4-4, 60-105, 20-4
     
    Goodrum has been underwhelming statistically, but the slugging should come back with a full healthy season (hopefully) in 2014. He has good speed and might stick at shortstop. As a third baseman, he could project well if his bat picks up. He draws a decent amount of walks so that offsets a lower batting average. Hopefully the Twins push him to Fort Myers, where he belongs, to start 2014.
     
     
    22. DJ Baxendale, RHS, DOB: 12/8/90
    2013 A+/AA (combined stats): 150, 3.90, 112/33 (7.6/1.9)
     
    Baxendale was great for Fort Myers at the beginning of the season and a lot of people got very excited about his potential. This was tempered, somewhat, by his struggles at AA. He has good enough stuff to get his strikeout rate back to around his career level. Look for Baxendale to return to AA and hopefully push his way forward for a serious look in the AFL after next season.
     
    21. Miguel Sulbaran, LHS, DOB: 3/19/94
    2013 A-: 112.2, 2.96, 101/32 (8.4/2.4)
     
    The Twins stole Sulbaran from the Dodgers in exchange for Drew Butera, who could never again stick for more than a month in MLB as his defense is no longer elite and his bat is still terrible. Sulbaran is bottom of the rotation material right now, but could add some velocity as he ages and fills out his frame. He also needs a third pitch. He is pretty exciting, though, and should be pushed to Fort Myers at the age of 20 next year to start the season.
  6. Shane Wahl
    Continuing my top 65 prospects. Here are 50-41:
     
    50. Jason Wheeler, LHS, DOB: 10/27/90 2013 A+: 143.1, 3.70, 91/58 (6.2/3.0)
     
    Wheeler walked more and struck out fewer in fewer innings at Fort Myers than his 2012 effort in Beloit. He has logged 300 innings in the past two seasons with a 3.57 ERA. I have to imagine he is heading back to Fort Myers to improve his K/BB rate in 2014.
     
    49. Dan Rohlfing, C/corner OF, RH, DOB: 2/12/89
    2013 AA/AAA (combined stats): 432, .267/.352/.341 (.693) (.650), 15-2-3, 48-96, 0-1
     
    Rohlfing is following the Chris Herrmann route in demonstrating positional versatility while being a primary catcher. This likely is his one path to the majors. He is still young and showed a bit of promise in Rochester and should hopefully start 2014 there with Knudson.
     
    48. Brett Lee, LHS, DOB: 9/20/90
    2013 A-: 116. 2.95, 89/26 (7.7, 2.1)
     
    Lee doesn't strike out a good number as a starter and is likely destined to be a long reliever like Dean and Rogers. He had a solid 2013 and will likely start in the 2014 starting rotation for the Miracle.
     
    47. Mason Meltokis, LHR, DOB: 6/28/91
    2013 A-: 135, 3.16 ERA, 84/39 (7.9/3.0)
     
    Melotakis is fitting in as a starter and should improve upon his K rate in 2014 as expect his second year as a starter to be a bit of a breakthrough year. The second round pick in 2012 has a #3 starter ceiling.
     
    46. Lester Oliveros, RHR, DOB: 5/28/88
    AAA, but 2013 GCL: 6.1 IP, 8 strikeouts, 3 walks
     
    Oliveros is making his way back from injury but is still a promising reliever. He should be off to AAA to start 2014 with a chance to make it again with the Twins soon.
     
    45. Luke Bard, RHR, DOB: 11/13/90
    2013 GCL/ELZ/A+ (combined stats): 12.1, 3.65, 9/9 (7.4/7.4)
     
    Bard has been a disappointing injury case. Now, in 19.1 career innings, he has 16 strikeouts and 16 walks. He remains an interesting prospect but needs to remain healthy in 2014 or his stock will drop even more dramatically.
    44. Ryan Eades, RHS, DOB: 12/15/91
    2013 ELZ: 15.2, 4.60, 13/12
     
    Eades was selected in the second round of the 2013 draft and I was immediately disappointed. His 2014 is going to be very important in terms of his future on this list, as I do not see strong potential in developing into a serviceable MLB pitcher at the moment. The high pick is enough to keep him here, however.
     
    43. Corey Williams, LHR, DOB: 7/4/902013 A+/AA (A+ stats): 45.1, 5.16, 43/23 (9.3/4.7)
     
    Williams has stagnated on this list due to a subpar performance in 2013, though I am confident that he can make headway, even by being promoted to the AA bullpen at the beginning of 2014. The lefty had big trouble with the long ball this year, and when a pitcher also walks to many, it is a recipe for disaster. 2014 is an important year for Williams.
     
    42. Alex Wimmers, RHS, DOB: 11/1/88
    (AA), but 2013 GCL stats: 15, 7.20, 18/15 (9.8/4.2)
     
    Any stats don't matter at all as long as Wimmers has a 2014 with at least several dozen innings pitched with effectiveness. Seven dozen innings would be more than his current career innings total. Any more significant setbacks and Wimmers' career is in total jeopardy. Hopefully he rises on this list by midseason 2014.
     
    41. Matt Hauser, RHR, DOB: 3/30/88
    2013 A+/AA (AA stats): 39.0, 6.00, 35/12 (8.4/3.8)
     
    Hauser had a solid start to his AA campaign but then had several terrible outings. I was looking for him to emerge as the next setup type for the Twins, but it would appear that this project is on hold for another year.
  7. Shane Wahl
    I have scrapped my earlier project of going by YOB. Why? Well, it took long enough to do . . . for things to slightly change in my mind here and there, so that the numbers were going to be messed up. Making a prospect list always involves weighing a bunch of different factors: floor/ceiling, durability, progress through the system, starter vs. reliever, positional versatility, etc. So it had changed enough for me to just go back to the old-fashioned way of constructing such a list.
     
    One thing that I really like about this result is that the honorable mentions that I list are all intriguing players.
     
     
    Honorable mention: J.T. Chargois, Chih-Wei Hu, Dereck Rodriguez, Kuo Hua Lo, Brandon Peterson, Madison Boer, Hudson Boyd
     
     
    65. Tyler Grimes, C/2B, RH, DOB: 7/3/90
    2013 A-: .256/.377/.382 (.759, career .708), 11 doubles, 4 triples, 6 doubles, 45 strikeouts/87 walks, 3 stolen bases/1 time caught stealing.
     
    Grimes has now spent three season in low A. The move to catcher makes his potential offensive contribution more valuable. Obviously he will be starting in Fort Myers and provides nice backup middle infield potential as well.
     
    64. Kyle Knudson, C, RH, DOB: 9-12-87
    2013 A+/AA (combined stats): 200, .273/.355/.352 (.707, .660), 8-0-2, 18-31, 0-1
    Knudson is a good catcher with decent offensive capabilities. If the Twins finally part with Danny Lehmann and also opt not to bring Eric Fryer back (both wise moves) next year, Knudson should join Danny Rohlfing in Rochester next year and be the next guy in line after Mauer, Doumit, Herrmann, and Pinto. Given that Mauer is likely going to see a steady decline at the plate, Doumit should be traded, and the latter two aren't established, Knudson might see some time in the big leagues in 2014 or 2015.
     
     
    63. Taylor Rogers, LHS, DOB: 12/17/90 2013 A-/A+ (A+ stats): 130.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 83/32 strikeouts/walks (career 7.4/2.3)
     
    2013 was an impressive season for the lefty. His K rate fell dramatically but he really kept the ball in the ballpark, giving up only five homers in A+. It was a solid step forward for Rogers and some more time in Fort Myers could really help him develop further.
     
    62. Angel Morales, OF, RH, DOB: 11/24/89
    2013 A+/AA (combined stats): 418, .239/.304/.427 (.731, .761), 23-5-12, 32-127, 8-7
     
    When Morales lost most of the 2011 season, one might have thought that it was just one lost season and that it was no big deal in the long run. But it wasn't until 2013 that Morales finally showed mastery of A+ ball. Once a part of a dynamic quartet of Twins OF prospects (with Revere, Benson, and Hicks . . . wow), Morales is now struggling to stay in the system. His AA performance was shockingly bad. That he was still able to ascend a level leads me to believe that the Twins should still not give up on him and hope that another year of AA baseball will help him, but he certainly cannot remain on the same timetable.
     
     
    61. Stuart Turner, C, RH, DOB: 12/27/91
    2013 ELZ: .264/.340/.380 (.729), 5-0-3, 12-22, 0-1
     
    That he is likely soon a major league ready defensive catcher is going to keep him on this list for awhile, though I was disappointed with his selection by the Twins in the 2013 draft. He's a third-round pick who could turn out to be Danny Lehmann, most likely becomes Drew Butera, and hopefully turns into a better defensive catching version of Chris Herrmann. 2014 in Cedar Rapids is going to be indicative.
     
     
    60. Steven Gruver, LHR, DOB: 6-30-89
    2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 79, 2.85, 76/29 (7.0/2.7)
     
    Gruver has moved to full-time relieving duties. He did not pitch very well in a small amount of A+ time in 2013, so he will be headed back there for 2014. He's one of a ton of left-handed middle relievers in the organization, so he is going to have to distinguish himself.
     
     
    59. Matthew Koch, C, RH, DOB: 11/21/88
    2013 A+: 393, .278/.346/.401 (.749) (.768), 20-1-7, 35/75, 1/1
     
    Koch has a solid bat and I was surprised that the Twins didn't promote him in the second half of the season this year. If he starts the season well at New Britain next year, this could lead to a jump on this list.
     
     
    58. Pat Dean, LHS, DOB: 5/25/89
    2013 AA/AAA (combined stats),: 165, 4.04, 83/22 (5.5/1.6)
     
    It is hard for me to imagine Dean being a major league starter. He will start in Rochester in 2014 and hopefully the K rate improves. Otherwise he is a less effective version of Andrew Albers. Now it is possible that he could regain some velocity and be a serviceable lefty out of the bullpen down the road.
     
     
    57. Tim Atherton, RHR, DOB: 12/7/89
    2013 A-: 95.2, 2.54, 102/33 (10.3/3.9)
     
    Atherton turns 24 in two days so the time is now for him to move. I don't see any future as a starter, and that's fine. He could be a contender for the Twins bullpen by 2016.
     
     
    56. Zach Larson: OF, RH, DOB: 10/8/93
    2013 GCL/ELZ (combined stats): .300/.380/.433, (.813), 11-1-5, 19-39, 12-2
     
    Larson put up intriguing numbers in 2013 and it was a bit out of nowhere. A full season in Cedar Rapids is going to be telling. If he stays at these kind of numbers, then he might be a real talent.
     
     
    55. Mike Kvasnicka, RF, SH, DOB: 12/7/88
    2013 A+: .282/.341/.460 (.800, .703), 13-2-9, 23-59, 4-4.
     
    Kvasnicka is a good story and perhaps a late bloomer. Drafted 33rd overall by the Astros in 2010 out of the University of Minnesota, Kvasnicka did very little until his first year in the Twins organization this past season. He should start in AA in 2014 and he will be one to watch.
     
    54. Fernando Romero, RHS, DOB: 12/24/94
    2013 GCL: 45, 1.60, 47/13 (8.9/3.2)
     
    Romero turns 19 on Christmas eve of this year. He has a very good fastball but there is still a lot of work for him to be regarded all that much higher on this list at the moment. Another solid season in 2014 (this time in E-Town) and Romero could be a fast-rising pitcher, however.
     
     
    53. Edgar Ibarra, LHR, DOB: 5/31/89
    2013 AA/AAA (combined stats): 60.2, 1.93 54/29 (7.8/3.9)
     
    Ibarra had split time as a reliever and starter up through 2011 and he was not very good. In 2012 he was not very good as a reliever, but in 2013 he emerged as quite effective, really limiting the number of hit off of him. But he continues to walk a lot of batters and his strikeout rate is declining. This coming season he could rise in the Rochester bullpen as the left-handed setup man. I put him one spot ahead of Dean because Dean could potentially be Edgar Ibarra 2.0 will a similar move to the bullpen.
     
     
    52. Nelvin Fuentes, LHR, DOB: 4/7/89
    2013 AA/A+ (combined stats): 51.1, 4.03, 58/17 (10.1/2.8)
     
    Fuentes can really strike guys out and in 2013 he started to limit hits given up at a more acceptable rate for A+ ball. He's a talented lefty who should get a second shot at starting in AA next season and hopefully he continues to progress.
     
    51. Cole Johnson, RHR, DOB: 10/6/88
    2013: A+/AA (combined stats): 59 IP, 3.20 ERA, 65/20 K/BB (career 9.7/2.6)
     
    Johnson could shoot up the list quickly if he can maintain this strikeout rate. I imagine he will start at AA next year, but could be quick to ascend if anyone at AAA or with the Twins falters (and someone likely will).
     
     
    This wraps up the first segment of my prospect countdown. 50 all the way through 11 will be down 10 prospects at a time, and the top 10 will be broken up in fives.
  8. Shane Wahl
    As the minor league seasons wind down and the trading period is over for the season, I have established my new Twins prospect list heading into the offseason. While I will post the full list at the end of this series, I decided to take a different approach and list the players not in rank order, but in year of birth order. Within each calendar year I then order players by level in the system, not by actual birthdate.
     
    The period goes from 1986 to 1996, which was an interesting fact alone. Organizing the system in this way actually helped me construct a better rank order anyway, so without further ado:
     
    1986 (1):
    40. Deibinson Romero, 3B/1B, RH, DOB: 9/24/86
     
    2013 AA/AAA (stats from AAA): 358 plate appearances, .266/.369/.421 (.790) (.759 career), 15 doubles, 1 triple, 10 homers, 47 walks, 75 strikeouts, 4 steals and 0 times caught stealing.
     
    Romero is an adequate defensive third baseman and has also played first. His future looked very bright about fours ago but then the Twins soured on him and he has been a slow-mover in the system. That said, the Twins ought to be feeling tired with Trevor Plouffe, and especially with Trevor Plouffe at third base. Furthermore, if Wilkin Ramirez and Chris Colabello don't prove to be good enough RH bats off the bench, Ramirez would deserve a look. Finally, if Miguel Sano is not ready at the beginning of 2014, Romero could be the fill-in if the Twins either move Plouffe via trade or via position change.
     
    1987 (3):
    32. Dakota Watts, RHR, DOB: 11/16/87
     
    2013 A+/AA (AA stats): 35.1 innings, 0.76 ERA, 29 k/10 bb (8.2/4.6 k/bb career)
     
    Watts has struggled with inconsistency and injuries in his career, but is currently lights out in the Eastern League. He could challenge for a bullpen spot in ST next year or he will certainly be the setup man or closer for Rochester when the season starts. I hope for the Twins to give him a chance by trading away Jared Burton and Casey Fien.
     
    65. Kyle Knudson, C, RH, DOB: 9-12-87
     
    2013 A+/AA (combined stats): 200, .273/.355/.352 (.707) (.660), 8-0-2, 18-31, 0-1
     
    Knudson is a good catcher with decent offensive capabilities. If the Twins finally part with Danny Lehmann and also opt not to bring Eric Fryer back (both wise moves) next year, Knudson should join Danny Rohlfing in Rochester next year and be the next guy in line after Mauer, Doumit, Herrmann, and Pinto. Given that Mauer is likely going to see a steady decline at the plate, Doumit should be traded, and the latter two aren't established, Knudson might see some time in the big leagues in 2014 or 2015.
     
    73. Evan Bigley, RF/LF, RH, DOB: 3/9/87
     
    2013 all over the place, ending with New Britain (AA stats): 201, .216/.264/.308 (.572) (.727), 9-1-2, 11/56, 0/1
     
    Bigley was injured this year after doing well in 2012 in AA. He could have been a contender for a Twins roster spot this year given the outfield calamity of 2013 for this organization. And now the Twins have added Alex Presley into the mix for no good reason. To me it seems that Bigley might be best served by signing with another organization in the offseason because the Twins continue to fill-in with older AAAA types.
     
    1988 (6):
    26. A.J. Achter, RHR, DOB: 8/27/88
     
    2013: AA/AAA (combined stats): 59.1, 2.58, 56/33 (9.6/3.2)
     
    Achter is off to the Arizona Fall League and is surely the reliever next in line to get a gig with the Twins after Michael Tonkin and before Watts. Achter is a very solid pitcher with a good fastball and is another reason why trading Burton and Fien is ideal.
     
    41. Matt Hauser, RHR, DOB: 3/30/88
     
    2013 A+/AA (AA stats): 39.0, 6.00, 35/12 (8.4/3.8)
     
    Hauser has a solid start to his AA campaign but then had several terrible outings. I was looking for him to emerge as the next setup type for the Twins, but it would appear that this project is on hold for another year.
     
    67. Ryan O'Rourke, LHR, DOB: 4/30/88
     
    2013: A+/AA (combined stats): 44, 3.27, 39/15 (8.5/2.5)
     
    O'Rourke is a lefty and he doesn't walk all that many guys. This is going to be useful for him, but he has to continue to strike batters out. He may not be spectacular, but no one really thought of Caleb Thielbar as spectacular either.
     
    54. Cole Johnson, RHR, DOB: 10/6/88
     
    2013: A+/AA (combined stats): 59, 3.20, 65/20 (9.7/2.6)
     
    Johnson could shoot up the list quickly if he can maintain this strikeout rate. I imagine he will start at AA next year, but could be quick to ascend if anyone at AAA or with the Twins falters (and someone likely will).
     
    49. Alex Wimmers, RHS, DOB: 11/1/88
     
    (AA), but 2013 GCL stats: 15, 7.20, 18/15 (9.8/4.2)
     
    Any stats don't matter at all as long as Wimmers has a 2014 with at least several dozen innings pitched with effectiveness. Seven dozen innings would be more than his current career innings total. Any more significant setbacks and Wimmers' career is in total jeopardy. Hopefully he rises on this list by midseason 2014.
     
    60. Matthew Koch, C, RH, DOB: 11/21/88
     
    2013 A+: 393, .278/.346/.401 (.749) (.768), 20-1-7, 35/75, 1/1
     
    Koch has a solid bat and I was surprised that the Twins didn't promote him in the second half of the season this year. If he starts the season well at New Britain next year, this could lead to a jump on this list.
     
     
    There you have it, the Twins prospects from 1986-1988 years of birth. The prospects range from Achter at no. 26 to Bigley at no. 73.
     
    My next entry with focus exclusively on the 20 Twins prospects born in 1989.
  9. Shane Wahl
    This is the time when people often make some wild trade speculations. I try not to do that here, but to propose who could be traded and what is realistic to get in return. The Twins can do very well here if they are willing to be sellers.
     
    The Twins are going to have to make some key decisions about who to keep and what they can get for 2014 and beyond. In what follows, I lay out some moves that could be made for the short and long term as the Twins try to figure out 2014 and the future. I am starting with top position players first as these guys should be first on the trading block.
     
    The big four are:
     
    --Josh Willingham (rationale: Arcia)
    --Justin Morneau (rationale: stop gaps in Colabello and Parmelee, could be re-signed anyway)
    --Trevor Plouffe (rationale: don't want to part ways, but Sano sticking at third or another stop gap player to fill in here makes Plouffe a good asset to trade)
    --Ryan Doumit (rationale: Herrmann and Pinto)
     
    Relevant playoff contenders with low OPS at these positions:
     
    --3B: New York Yankees (.615), Pittsburgh Pirates (.638)
    --1B: New York Yankees (.696), Tampa Bay Rays (.800, but falling rapidly)
    --C: Cincinnati Reds (.617), Baltimore Orioles (.634), New York Yankees (.640)
    --LF: New York Yankees (.660)
    --DH: Tampa Bay Rays (.682), Baltimore Orioles (.700), New York Yankees (.709).
     
    As is clear, the New York Yankees have some holes all over as they deal with a number of injuries and some quickly fading stop-gap players. The Orioles and Rays also appear twice. Finally, two National teams make the list, but I am going to remove the Reds from consideration of Ryan Doumit, because Doumit's value seems to come from his ability to catch and fill in as the designated hitter.
     
    Some potential pairings would include:
     
    Willingham-Yankees
    Plouffe-Pirates, Yankees
    Doumit-Orioles, Yankees
    Morneau-Rays, Orioles, Yankees
     
    I realize that "top prospects" as in top 100 or even 200 overall are going to be off limits in exchange for these guys. But, being someone who analyzes the Twins system and has a "Top 60" list on a regular basis, I find a lot of value in players on individual team lists ranging from 11-30 quite often, especially given the volatility of such lists and the volatility of the grades that even Sickels places on players. So, here are five guys from each of the four teams above who are not on many team top ten lists and often fall between 12 and 20 or lower on such lists.
     
    For comparison's sake, in the Twins system this would mean players like Danny Santana, Tyler Duffey, Matt Hauser, Nate Roberts, Niko Goodrum, Danny Ortiz and the like. And several of those players have been on the rise from lower parts of the list over the past few years.
     
    New York Yankees:
     
    Nik Turley, LHP, starter, 23 (AA/AAA this year)
    2013 AA: 4.90 ERA, 64.1 innings, 71/33 K/BB (AAA: 1.50, 1, 6.0, 4/3)
     
    Twins system: likely headed to New Britain
     
     
    Bryan Mitchell, LHP, starter, 22 (A+)
    2013 A+: 4.74, 76.0, 62/34
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers
     
     
    Dan Camarena, LHP, starter, 20 (A)
    2013 A: 6.34, 49.2, 36/13
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids
     
     
    Jose Ramirez, RHP, starter, 23 (AA/AAA)
    2013 AA: 2.76, 42.1 50/15 (AAA: 4.50, 4.0 5/4)
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Rochester
     
     
    Nick Goody, RHP, reliever, 21 (A+)
    2013 A+: 3.00, 3.0 3/2. 2012 A: 1.09, 24.2, 40/7)
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers
     
     
    Baltimore Orioles:
     
    Tim Berry, LHP, starter, 22 (A+)
    2013 A+: 4.54, 69.1, 66/17
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers
     
     
    Zach Davies, RHP, starter, 20 (A+)
    2013 A+: 3.63, 74.1, 58/19
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers.
     
     
    Devin Jones, RHP, starter, 22 (AA)
    2013 AA: 4.84, 67.0, 58/20
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers
     
     
    Josh Hader, LHP, starter, 19 (A)
    2013 A: 1.94, 60.1, 56/30
     
    Twins system: likely head to Cedar Rapids.
     
     
    Torsten Boss, LH, 3B, 22 (A)
    2013 A: 221, .251/.333/.405 (.738), 11/2/5, 23/49, 2-3
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids.
     
     
    Tampa Bay Rays:
     
    Tyler Goeddel, RH, 3B/SS, 20 (A)
    2013 A: 239, .252/.345/.398 (.743), 6/6/4, 28/41, 13-17
     
    Twins system: likely head to Cedar Rapids
     
     
    Brandon Martin, RH, SS, 19 (A)
    2013 A: 50, .244/.280/.422 (.702), 2/0/2, 2/10, 0-1
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids
     
     
    Felipe Rivero, LH, starter, 21, (A+)
    2013 A+: 3.28, 61.1, 53/24
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers
     
     
    Jeff Ames, RHP, starter, 22 (A)
    2013 A: 2.47, 58.1 42/10
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers
     
     
    Jake Hager, SS, 20 (A+)
    2013 A+: 242, .290/.344/.353, 10/2/0, 18/36, 9-16
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers.
     
     
    Pittsburgh Pirates:
     
    Vic Black, RHP, reliever, 25 (AAA)
    2013 AAA: 2.62, 24.0, 33/11
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Rochester
     
    Nick Kingham, RHP, starter, 21 (A+/AA)
    2013 A+: 3.09, 70, 75/14
     
    Twins system: likely headed to New Britain
     
     
    Adrian Sampson, RHP, starter, 21 (A+)
    2013 A+: 5.56, 66.1, 37/12 (2012 numbers in A ball included a 9.3/9 K rate)
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers
     
     
    Max Moroff, SH, SS, 20 (A)
    2013 A: 248, .228/.350/.351 (.701), 9/1/5, 39/40, 4-9
     
    Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids
     
     
    Alex Dickerson, LH, 1B/RF, 23 (AA)
    2013 AA: 216, .238/.285/.417 (.702) 17/2/5, 13/51, 3-5
     
    Twins system: likely headed to New Britain
     
     
    There are 20 players of varying worth and perfomance, but I think the Twins should mostly focus on pitching. Would I trade all four? Likely, yes. The return that would be nice is a couple of starting pitchers, one reliever, and one infielder.
     
    Regardless, I think this casts some reality over the trade outlook for these players. That reality is not bleak by any means.
  10. Shane Wahl
    In the 2011 season, the New Britain Rock Cats featured a dynamic lineup for the second half of the season which consisted primarily of Brian Dozier (SS), Chris Herrmann (C/LF), Chris Parmelee (1B/RF), Joe Benson (CF), and Yangervis Solarte (2B/LF). None of these five would see any AAA time in 2011 and only Parmelee and Benson saw September action with the Twins. After the season, the Twins committed to Brian Dozier going forward and Yangervis Solarte left as a minor league free agent, signing with the Texas organization.
     
    Here I would like to compare Dozier with Solarte. First they are physically similar, being 5'11" and about 190 pounds. They are both now in their age 26 seasons, with Solarte actually being almost two months younger than Dozier. Solarte is a switch-hitter who has played most of his time at second base but has seen some time in left field, at third base, and at shortstop.
     
    In that 2011 season, Solarte found his groove and posted a .329/.367/.466 (.834) line with 36 doubles, 3 triples, and 7 homers. He didn't walk (24) or strike out (38) much. Dozier was stellar for New Britain, posting a .318/.384/.502 (.885) line in about 2/3 of the season.
     
    Since that time, Dozier has found himself with the Twins for what amounts to close to a full season now with a demotion to AAA in 2012 where he struggled. Dozier is the primary second baseman for the Twins, almost by default, though his defense there has been great.
     
    Solarte has been in AAA for the Rangers organization ever since and is doing well this year in particular. His slash is .296/.337/.440 (.777) and has 12 doubles and 8 homers. He has been a super utility player, playing the three skilled infield positions and left field while posting decent numbers at all of those positions defensively.
     
    While Dozier has been handed a job, Solarte has the great misfortune of being in an organization with Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, and Mike Olt. Solarte has performed well in AAA and looks projectable for the majors, but is extremely blocked.
     
    Meanwhile, Bran Dozier's career is hanging almost exclusively on a combination of his defensive abilities at second base and the fact that there is no one better, somehow, to take his position.
     
    If only the Twins had sweetened the deal for Solarte either by showing commitment to him with either a AAA promotion in 2011 or a September call-up, or by offering more money to stick around and re-sign with the organization. It looks like it would have served both Solarte and the Twins well.
  11. Shane Wahl
    Second base is a problem area for the Twins and has been since Luis Castillo. Here's a look at the state of the system from top to bottom, in detail:
     
     
    Minnesota:
     
    Brian Dozier: RH, DOB: 5-15-87. STATS: .205/.250/.279 (.529), 2/2/1, 8-29, 3-3.
     
    I was a fan of Brian Dozier up until May of this year. I worry about his ability to be a competent player in the major leagues at this point. His defense at second is good, but he is abysmal at the plate. His walk/strikeout rate is just inexcusable. It's frustrating because he can really get good swings on the ball sometimes (his homer in the ninth against Boston, for instance), but he is not good overall at the moment.
     
    Jamey Carroll: RH, 2-18-74. STATS: .304/.361/.339 (.700), 2/0/0, 5-13, 0-0.
     
    Carroll is getting fairly limited playing time this year, mainly because of Dozier. But Carroll is doing an OK job as a utility player and his OPS should climb over .700 with a bit more playing time, returning to 2010 and 2011 numbers. I like Carroll as a tradeable player to some N.L. team at the deadline (even if the Twins are somehow also competing for the playoff) since he is a good roster piece to move around in certain situations more likely to come up in that league. The return just needs to be competent, not overwhelming. I think the Braves, Nationals, Giants, Cardinals and Reds are notable teams to start considering for trade possibilities.
     
     
    Eduardo Escobar: SH, DOB: 1-5-89. STATS: .293/.328/.466 (.793), 2/1/2, 3-6, 0-1.
     
    I undervalued Escobar for several months now and am admitting that I was wrong, fundamentally, and could be very wrong about his ability and potential. I think that there is a fairly easy managerial decision to be made right now: play Escobar somewhere until that OPS drops below .730 or so. It's really simple: he spells Plouffe once a week, spells Florimon twice a week, and spells Dozier twice a week.
     
     
    Rochester:
     
    Eric Farris: RH, DOB: 3-3-86. STATS: .227/.278/.311 (.589), 3/1/2, 9-19, 7-0.
     
    I like Farris' ability to steal bases, but there is really no reason for Farris to have 138 plate appearances right now. For whatever absurd reason, Farris was batting 6th in the Red Wings lineup just last night. There is no excuse for that. Joe Benson was batting 9th in this lineup. And we will see below that there are AA players now deserving of a promotion.
     
    Nate Hanson: RH, DOB: 2/8/87. STATS (AA/AAA): .255/.318/.368 (.686), 3/0/3, 11-23, 0-0.
     
    Hanson is struggling in AAA now and hasn't played second base yet (for whatever insane reason--Deibinson Romero must be cringing in AA). He is a potential super-utility option as he has played 3B, 2B, 1B, and LF in significant doses.
     
     
    New Britain:
     
    James Beresford: SH, DOB: 1-19-89. STATS: .340/.413/.383 (.796), 4/0/0, 11-16, 3-0.
     
    I believe Beresford is an overlooked player right now in the Twins system. He plays great defense at second and perhaps great defense at shortstop, though the Twins are hardly bothered to put him at that position this year so far. Maybe that is because they know he can do and they are trying out Danny Santana there. The offensive numbers are good for Beresford this year and I am really impressed with his ability to make substantial improvements offensively while repeating at AA. That said, he belongs in AAA by now. He's basically ready defensively and is showing major strides at the plate. And below him are guys named Rosario and Michael. His SLG has jumped 69 points to MI respectability now.
     
     
    Jason Christian: LH, DOB: 6-16-87. STATS: .189/.271/.302 (.573), 2/2/0, 6-18, 2-2.
     
    Organizational filler who is taking plate appearances away from players with actual potential. This is what the Twins do, and there is no good reason for it. He's never been remotely good in the minors, yet the Twins signed him.
     
    Danny Santana: SH, DOB: 11-7-90. STATS: .280/.297/.354 (.651), 7/3/0, 5-28, 7-3.
     
    Santana has a lot of potential as a kind of Ben Revere of the infield. I list him here as a second baseman, because I see no future as a SS. He has been fairly bad his whole minor league career there. I am not sure what the Twins are thinking because swapping Santana and Beresford is such an obvious decision. Regardless, Santana did not initially do well after the jump this season to AA ball, but he has come on strong in last 10 games. Making these adjustments matters, and he is doing so. I would like to simply see him improve his now adequate defense at second base. Santana's long-term role with the Twins really depends on Eddie Rosario more than those above him. Do not be surprised if the Twins offer him up in a trade sometime down the road if they find themselves comfortable with Rosario at second, and a few other players as SS and UTIL players. That said, Santana does have CF experience and could position himself as another player who is Brian Dinkelman+ (well maybe ++).
     
     
    Fort Myers:
     
    Eddie Rosario: LH, DOB: 9-28-91. STATS: .318/.359/.487 (.846), 9/4/3, 10-26, 3-2.
     
    Rosario is a key component to the Twins future. As a second baseman, he could serve as a major re-shaping figure for this team. And the results are in so far: after a shaky transition in 2012, Rosario has improved his defense enormously at second base and he may be projectable as an above-average major league defender at the position. And this will come with significant doubles power and some other extra pop. His plate discipline has lagged only a tiny bit after the move to high-A ball. He could serve as the best 2-hole hitter ahead of Joe Mauer (Ben Revere 2012 for a few months is the only other contender) in the Mauer era. There is no reason that Rosario should not finish at AA.
     
     
    Levi Michael: SH, DOB: 2-9-91. STATS: .210/.278/.370 (.648), 6/2/1, 8-19, 2-0.
     
    Michael has returned to Fort Myers and has mimicked his numbers from a season ago, though he is coming off of an injury. His power is slightly up too, which is a really good sign. If he sticks at short that would be a plus, but he could very well end up competing at second base. And with Rosario there, he is going to have to improve offensively. And how.
     
     
    Cedar Rapids:
     
    Jorge Polanco: SH, DOB: 7-5-93. STATS: .325/.376/.491 (.867), 12/6/1, 16-20, 1-2.
     
    Polanco is exciting. Up until he turned 18, Polanco struggled at the plate. In the past two years, he has gone ballistic. His defense at SS was an attractive thing as a 16-year-old. He has now split time at SS and second overall is minor league career. He struggled at SS up until this year. In limited time there he has really improved his defensive stats. I think the Twins want to see if Niko Goodrum will stay at SS, but that may be doubtful. Polanco could move over and be the SS of the future for the Twins. For now, he is the primary second baseman for Cedar Rapids. Even though his numbers are great, I wouldn't expect a promotion to Fort Myers this year.
     
    Candido Pimentel: SH, DOB: 7/19/90. STATS: .262/.328/.299 (.627), 2/1/0, 11-27, 7-2.
     
    Pimentel blossomed last year in his third season of rookie ball, but he appears to be returning to the pre-2012 performance. He is rotating into the lineup with Polanco and Goodrum this year, but he really needs to improve if he has any chance.
     
     
    EST:
     
    Jose Ramirez: SH, DOB: 9-6-91. STATS (2012 in the GCL): .234/.294/.269, 3/1/0, 10-33, 3-5.
     
    Ramirez is likely going to Elizabethon when that season starts. He has not produced, but perhaps this year he gets acclimated to the U.S. and plays better.
     
    Logan Wade: SH, DOB: 11-13-91. STATS (2012 in the GCL): .234/.301/.371 (.672), 6/4/1, 12-29, 2-2
     
    The Australian turned in an OK performance in 2012, but will need to improve significantly to advance out of rookie ball.
     
    Will Hurt: RH, DOB: 12-22-93. STATS (bad in limited time in the GCL, not even worth mentioning!).
     
    With a name like that, I really want him to succeed. He was drafted in the 16th round of the 2012 draft and played very little rookie ball. He should go back to the GCL and play, hopefully turning things around this year.
     
     
    Conclusion:
    Eddie Rosario alone makes this position adequate in the system, but now the Twins have significant depth at second base. There are some question marks about who's going to end up staying at second and short, but the middle infield situation has improved markedly in the past year with a successful move (Rosario) and very improved performances (Escobar, Beresford, Santana, and Polanco).
  12. Shane Wahl
    In judging my ability to note appropriate "minor" minor leaguers to watch, the first update must address the fundamental question: are these guys still worthy of keeping an eye on. I think the answer for each is yes, though I am starting to be concerned about a couple of these guys. With that, here is the update:
     
    Dereck Rodriguez (EST, E-Town or CR): Dereck is likely going to be in E-Town as soon as that season starts.
     
    J.D. Williams (CR): J.D. is in a slump at the moment but he has had a strong season and given his attitude and charisma is likely to be given every opportunity in the Twins system. Expect that to mean Fort Myers pretty soon.
     
    Dalton Hicks (CR): Hicks is really impressive. He is posting an OPS of .861 and will be deserving of a promotion to Fort Myers as well.
     
    Michael Gonzales (FM): An injury has halted a good start to the 2013 season for Gonzales. He turns 25 in 11 days and is on the A+ DL. Not sure what else to say. Would be just off my top-60 prospects list.
     
    Tom Stuifbergen (FM): Promoted to New Britain! The walks are incredibly low, but so are the strikeouts. If he can start getting more swings and misses, it would really help him. There is still a ways to go, but he's healthy. Think injury history similar to poor Nate Roberts, and you get the idea.
     
    Daniel Ortiz (NB): Ortiz is hitting better than he ever has and it is after a promotion to New Britain this year. He will be on the 40-man roster after this season. Could also be worthy of a September call-up to help the Twins decide on some matters in the offseason (Parmelee and Willingham, if they are still around). .792 OPS.
     
    A.J. Achter (NB): Achter has seen his walk rate balloon into the problematic realm, but the rest of his performance has been very good. He probably needs full seasoning at New Britain this year, for a chance to make the Twins next season.
    Dakota Watts (NB): An injury has limited his time to just 10 innings. And it hasn't been good. It really is just up and down with Watts from year to year. He seems to be only strong in even numbered years, so we'll go with that for next season.
     
    Bruce Pugh (NB): Totally ditto for Pugh. 17 innings, 12 walks and 12 strikeouts in AA after being demoted when he was terrible for Rochester. Hopefully he gets it worked out . . . for next year.
     
    Andrew Albers ®: Albers is pitching his way towards a look with the Twins this year. His strikeout rate has actually improved in AAA this season and he has still kept the walks down fairly low. He gives up hits and can get smacked once in awhile, but he may be the best AAA option for promotion to the Twins not named Kyle Gibson.
  13. Shane Wahl
    Here is my updated prospect list as the Twins head into the draft. I do this in order to provide context for my post-draft list. The post-draft list will be in detail (pre-season ranking in parentheses).
     
    1. Byron Buxton (4)
    2. Miguel Sano (1)
    3. Oswaldo Arcia (3)
    4. Kyle Gibson (8)
    5. Alex Meyer (5)
    6. Eddie Rosario (6)
    7. Jose Berrios (7)
    8. Jorge Polanco (28)
    9. Trevor May (10)
    10. Max Kepler (9)
    11. Travis Harrison (12)
    12. D.J. Baxendale (38)
    13. Adam Walker (15)
    14. Kennys Vargas (16)
    15. Danny Santana (22)
    16. Josmil Pinto (45)
    17. Chris Herrmann (13)
    18. Niko Goodrum (17)
    19. Nate Roberts (14)
    20. Tyler Duffey (48)
    21. Daniel Ortiz (32)
    22. Matthew Hauser (20)
    23. Adrian Salcedo (18)
    24. Levi Michael (25)
    25. Taylor Rogers (53)
    26. Mason Melotakis (30)
    27. Corey Williams (42)
    28. James Beresford (49)
    29. Michael Tonkin (33)
    30. Dalton Hicks (NL)
    31. Luke Bard (31)
    32. J.T. Chargois (35)
    33. Angel Morales (40)
    34. J.D. Williams (43)
    35. Angel Mata (34)
    36. Tom Stuifbergen (29)
    37. Zach Jones (NL)
    38. Jason Wheeler (27)
    39. Aderlin Mejia (NL)
    40. Hudson Boyd (19)
    41. Josh Burris (21)
    42. A.J. Achter (41)
    43. Matthew Koch (59)
    44. Steven Gruver (NL)
    45. Matthew Summers (37)
    46. Madison Boer (36)
    47. Tyler Grimes (NL)
    48. Ryan O'Rourke (NL)
    49. Tyler Jones (57)
    50. Nelvin Fuentes (NL)
    51. Derek Rodriguez (26)
    52. Lester Oliveros (46)
    53. Logan Darnell (58)
    54. Dakota Watts (47)
    55. Bruce Pugh (50)
    56. Pat Dean (52)
    57. Romy Jimenez (56)
    58. Lance Ray (44)
    59. Candido Pimentel (NL)
    60. Deolis Guerra (51)
  14. Shane Wahl
    This is the first part in a series examining the Twins system, position-by-position in order to get both a near and long-term perspective of Twins' system. With regard to first base, there are a number of question marks, certainly, but it also seems to be the case that there is some hope both in the near future and definitely down the road.
     
    Let's go from top to bottom, starting with the Twins:
     
    Minnesota:
     
    Justin Morneau: LH, DOB: 5-15-81. STATS: .296/.340/.415 (.755), 10 doubles/0 triples/2 homers, 10 bb-22 k, 0-0 sb-cs.
     
    Morneau is in the final year of his contract and will have about $4 million left on his contract at the trade deadline. But I would not count those chickens before they hatch. The Twins may see Morneau as an integral part of the near future which will see some key prospects start to bloom. His injury history may give pause, but there is no doubt that he is starting to really come on this season and is a different player. He is really producing with RISP right now and the lack of homer power shouldn't be a cause for concern. Of course, the expected improvement coming for the rest of the season both makes his resigning with the Twins and his being traded more probable. There is the potential option of trading Morneau for some top 100-200 prospect at the deadline and then signing him in the offseason. That would be potentially ideal, especially given the Chris Parmelee situation.
     
     
    Chris Parmelee: LH, DOB: 2/24/1988. STATS: .214/.301/.337 (.638), 3/0/3, 11-28, 1-1.
     
    Parmelee has been in RF this year and has been a competent defender out there. People seem to assume that Parmelee is the heir-apparent to Morneau's position, but Parmelee is certainly not really built like a first baseman and may have a future as a platoon player or bench bat. He was dominant in AAA last year and I do believe that he is a competent player, but so was Ron Coomer. Parmelee is a player who I view as having no real long-term future with the Twins and he if does have such a future than it is likely a bad sign for the development of many prospects in the system who would have to basically flame out in order to cement Parmelee on the Twins roster. This isn't a knock on him, but just the reality of the potential future for the Twins. I would like to see Parmelee succeed this year to the point that some team will like his ability enough to trade some mid-level prospect for him.
     
     
    Rochester:
     
    Chris Colabello: RH, DOB: 10/24/83. STATS: .326/.384/.574 (.958), 11/0/8, 14-32, 0-1.
     
    Colabello is a great story of perseverance, but that is also means that he is in his prime right now. This means he should be looked upon as the next guy to be "a bench bat" if the Twins decide to go with a 11-man pitching staff or if Wilkin Ramirez or someone like Morneau, Parmelee, or Arcia go to the DL. He is almost certainly guaranteed a September spot on the roster at the very least. He has proved all he need to in order to earn a chance. The Twins will be looking to use him as soon as possible.
     
    Jeff Clement: LH, DOB: 8/21/1983. STATS: .179/.243/.255 (.498), 2/0/2, 9-26, 0-0.
     
    Clement may be on his last leg as a contending major league baseball player. On paper he looks like he could be a contributor, but then he plays and it all goes south. Only a series of injuries to two of the three players above him could change his status as AAA-filler. And AAA-filler is not something I particularly like, especially when it is obvious that many prospects could use some AAA time.
     
    Nathan Hanson: RH, DOB: 2/8/87. STATS (AA/AAA): .287/.368/.406 (.773), 3/0/3, 11-18, 0-0.
     
    Hanson has dramatically improved his performance over the rest of his minor league career this year. While he has not been in position to play first base this year, this is the place where he has played the most in his minor league career. He is a potential super-utility option as he has played 3B, 2B, 1B, and LF in significant doses. He is someone to watch as a Chanhassen native looking to crack the big leagues . . . as a better version of Brian Dinkelman.
     
     
    New Britain:
     
    Reynaldo Rodriguez:, RH, DOB: 2-7-86. STATS: .217/.315./.453 (.767), 9/2/4, 15-27, 2-1.
     
    Rodriguez is true organizational filler, and Deibinson Romero is coming to encroach on his time anyway. This spot in New Britain is a temporary placeholder for a prospect from Fort Myers, most likely Kennys Vargas.
     
     
    Fort Myers:
     
    Kennys Vargas: SH, DOB: 8-1-90. STATS: .271/.354/.496 (.850), 9/1/6, 16-31, 0-0.
     
    Vargas is almost a luxury. He is a power hitter with massive potential. His ISO numbers for 2013 are pretty much right between his fantastic 2012 season and his good 2011 season. He can certainly hit and seems to be a competent defensive first baseman right now. He's a career .890 OPS guy and is someone to watch the rest of the season and next season. If he continues to produce like this, the Twins are going to have a lot of positional and roster decisions to make.
     
    Lance Ray: LH, DOB: 9-2-89. STATS: .206/.276/.265 (.541), 4/0/0, 7-12, 1-1.
     
    Ray has been injured this year and this accounts for some of his struggles. He has been a decent player in the minors, but nothing too overwhelm. The rest of 2013 in Fort Myers is important for him as his development may either stagnate or warrant continued development in the system. His ability to play both corner OF positions and first base is an asset.
     
    Michael Gonzales: LH, DOB: 6-16-88. STATS: .238/.338/.476 (.814), 1/1/4, 10-17, 0-0.
     
    The big first baseman is injured, but his OPS has jumped 100 points in his second go-around with Fort Myers so far. He is another guy with good power and whose 2013 is a very important season. A healthy rest of the season is going to be vital for his development. I would like to see him see AA pitching this year.
     
     
    Drew Leachman: RH, DOB: 4-21-89. STATS: .239/.288/.284 (572), 1/1/0, 4-9, 1-1.
     
    Leachman was promoted to Fort Myers after a solid start at Cedar Rapids. He is very similar to Lance Ray, but with less power. He can play the corner OF positions along with 1B. He probably will remain in Fort Myers this year to see if he can handle better pitching.
     
     
    Cedar Rapids:
     
    Dalton Hicks: LH, DOB: 4-2-90. STATS: .288/.362/.485 (.847), 11/0/5, 15-28, 0-0.
     
    Hicks has emerged this year as a solid middle of the order hitter with good power and decent plate discipline. He is bad against lefties, but great against righties, so the sky may not be the limit for Hicks. That said, he will continue to get better and will likely pass a few of the guys above him over the next year.
     
     
    EST:
     
    Rory Rhodes: RH, DOB: 7-28-91. STATS (cumulative minor league career): .242/.328/.383 (.711), 46/7/19, 97-269, 11-11.
     
    Rhodes was demoted from low-A back down to E-Town last year. He hit well at the latter destination and should be ready to serve as a replacement in Cedar Rapids once some of those guys get promoted. He has decent power, but strikes out an awful lot. He is still pretty young, though, and may simply have issues with the fact that he is 6'9" and a bit lanky. I imagine long swings may be an issue.
     
    Bryan Haar: RH, DOB: 12-9-89. STATS (2012): .250/.319/.345 (.664), 9/1/1, 13-35, 3-3.
     
    Haar was drafted in the 34th round last year and did not put up very strong numbers. He is receiving instruction right now and should be headed to E-Town once that season starts. He is definitely in a make or break season at age 23 in rookie ball.
     
     
    Conclusion
     
    The Twins are better stocked at this position than they have been in the recent past. Players like Colabello, Vargas, and Hicks have created nice depth at this position across the board. I have toyed with the idea that the Twins should try to trade both Morneau and Parmelee since there is good value in the former and no real Twins future with the latter. Certainly there could be a movement up for many of these players this year.
  15. Shane Wahl
    I am not sure many really expected all of this.
     
    The Twins are now 8-7 and have won four games in a row. This is while starting without their best 2012 starting pitcher for nine games, with Vance Worley being bad until his fourth start, with a horribly struggling rookie in Aaron Hicks, with Justin Morneau at even sub-2012 levels of production, with Ryan Doumit struggling, with . . . . well you get the idea.
     
    The fact that the Twins are over .500 is surprising when you consider that only Joe Mauer, Eduardo Escobar, Pedro Florimon, and Kevin Correia are actually performing beyond expectations right now.
     
    So there's that--the Twins have gotten off to an above average start literally and that means a good start when looking at a potential .410 win percentage for the year.
     
    To make things better, there is enormous good news in the minors. While Kyle Gibson has been fairly bad and has pitched too many innings per start if he is on an overall innings limit, Alex Meyer and Trevor May have looked good. When Gibson gets it going and when Meyer and May progress further, the Twins suddenly have legitimate options at starting pitcher. Drafting a lefty starting star (Manaea) would add immensely to the 2015 season.
     
    Meyer has struck out 19 in 16 innings and he is giving up more hits then he is accustomed to, but he is moving right along towards a September call-up.
     
    May is going to struggle at times, but he is also going to make B.J. Hermsen out to be a non-prospect (no offense, but Hermsen does not throw a pitch--currently--for a strikeout).
     
    Offensively, it seems that Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario are too big for where they are at. There is zero reason for the Twins not to promote Buxton to Fort Myers immediately (and Angel Morales can get a true make it or break it season at AA). Sano and Rosario should remain until about June to be promoted to AA and then we can see the experiment really begin (Sano at third, Rosario at second).
     
    Buxton has produced a .415/.523/.642 line in 15 games. Buxton has two of every extra base hit while Sano has a slash of .375/.438/.734 and Rosario brings in a .352/.385/.507 slash. Rosario has no errors so far, and that is a good sign for the biggest positional question in the system. Sano can move to first, Buxton can be the CF, moving Hicks to RF, and Rosario as a second baseman makes the team strong at a position that has been a debacle since Chuck Knoblauch.
     
    D.J. Baxendale is the great honorable mention right now. As will be Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter, and Jose Berrios. Baxendale, in particular, is notable for his success as a starter this year.
     
    This is all a sign of a very good future. The 2013 team is competing for a win of the division AND the prospects are looking quite good.
     
    This year is already different than 2012. And that is worth a lot.
  16. Shane Wahl
    Last year's crew didn't do so well overall, especially the pitchers. This year only one of the 10 players returns to the list. These are guys under the radar a bit, but could have breakout or breakthrough seasons (from bottom to top of system):
     
    1. Dereck Rodriguez (EST, E-Town or CR): Rodriguez had a solid 2012 season when healthy. He is turning 21 in June and has been moved very cautiously in the Twins system (much like Nate Roberts). I have to imagine that he ends 2013 with Cedar Rapids, especially if Buxton and/or Kepler are promoted to Fort Myers. Rodriguez needs to cut out the strike outs to be successful.
     
    J.D. Williams (CR): Williams is the only one to return to the list this year. After an excellent 2011 season he turned in a bad one in low-A ball in 2012. He is off to a fast start in 2013. Speaking of fast, Williams is the one guy who might be able to take Byron Buxton in a foot race. Anyway, Williams is 22.5 years old and repeating at low-A is hopefully not a year-long process. He could be one of three OF for Cedar Rapids promoted to Fort Myers this year.
     
    Dalton Hicks (CR): The 23-year-old had a solid season in 2012 and is pounding the ball in 18 at bats this year. Could be a fast-riser and be another player challenging to make a move up to Fort Myers this season.
     
    Michael Gonzales (FM): Speaking of Fort Myers and first base, I have been pleased with Gonzales early numbers after an OK performance in 2012. He will finish the season in New Britain, undoubtedly. He turns 25 in June and has tremendous power, but he needs to make contact.
     
    Tom Stuifbergen (FM): Stuifbergen was a bright spot in the system a few years ago and in the 2009 WBC. He has battled injuries the past few seasons and the K/rate is falling. If he gets that back up this year, he could be ending the season in AAA. He turns 25 in September.
     
    Daniel Ortiz (NB): Twins fans may now know who Ortiz is after this spring's extended stay with the Twins in spring training. Ortiz has been consistent in his minor league career and the Twins have rewarded him with promotions. He really probably has fourth outfielder potential, but he can play all three positions out there and could develop some pop. In any event, he has more upside than Boggs, Ramirez, and Mastroianni.
     
    A.J. Achter (NB): Achter put up ridiculous numbers in 2012 in Fort Myers. He may be less well-known than Michael Tonkin, but he should rise with Tonkin in the system this year. He is part of a class of relievers (Tonkin, Watts, Pugh, Thielbar) who will challenge for spots in the bullpen this year and next.
     
    Dakota Watts (NB): Watts was solid in 2012 and in winter ball. He has some good velocity and will be knocking on the door this year for a promotion to AAA after he gets off the DL. He could likely be in the bullpen for the Twins in 2014.
     
    Bruce Pugh ®: Pugh was great in 2012 and will be up with the Twins at some point in 2013. He whiffs a lot of batters and could be a viable setup man down the road.
     
    Andrew Albers ®: Albers is the elder statesman of this group and I hope he gets a chance to make the big leagues soon. He is a crafty, command lefty who has been very good the past two seasons in the system. Likely long relief down the road. I wanted him to pair with Gibson too keep Gibson's inning load down, but Albers was forced into the rotation.
  17. Shane Wahl
    It is time to return to an analysis of the farm system in terms of how prospects by position are moving up, moving down, appearing, disappearing, or reappearing on this year's list.
     
    This is an attempt to gauge the overall status of the system from year to year and entails, indirectly, an analysis of the 2012 draft, but also the development of players still in the system and the emergence of talent up into the big leagues.
     
    I used the 2012 compilation list from myself, Seth Stohs, and Twinkie Town. For 2013, I stuck with my list, in part because both of the other lists, as well as Gleeman's list, are pretty similar to mine anyway. In fact they tend to exactly embellish--perhaps appropriately--the main conclusion of this analysis anyway.
     
    In sum, the results are not that dramatic. By position, a simple way to view the prospect list movement between 2012 and 2013 is as follows:
     
    OF: even
    C: even
    1B: even
    2B: even (lower number resulting from Dozier moving to the Twins)
    3B: slightly downward (this with Sano and Harrison still candidates)
    SS: slightly upward
    RHS: upward
    RHR: upward
    LHS: downward
    LHR: even
     
    This projects to be an overall improvement in the system, and I have been conservative in the impact, to some degree, in three areas: 1) right-handed pitching may be vastly improved as only 2013 can tell, 2) Danny Santana and Niko Goodrum both staying at SS could be huge, 3) Sano *or* Harrison staying at third creates much more balance.
     
    Methodology: I analyzed the list by tiers: top 5, 15, 25, 35, and 50 and then counted the number of prospects at each tier by position.
     
    Right-handed starters has supplanted outfielders as appearing the most on the list in the top 50, though outfielders are still very well represented. RHS also appear most in the top 35 and top 25 as well. This might not be so surprising given the last two drafts, but keep in mind that people like Manuel Soliman, Adrian Salcedo, and Alex Wimmers have plummeted in the meantime.
     
    The system stagnated a bit at catcher, first base, and second base. Herrmann and Pinto are the only clear prospects at the catcher position, Dalton Hicks needs to establish himself this year to be a full-fledged prospect and Chris Colabello is aging, and finally, only Eddie Rosario makes the second base spot bright.
     
    The big problem spots are in left-handed pitching (especially starters), 3B (really a big problem if neither Sano nor Harrison stay there), and catching (especially if neither Matt Koch nor Danny Rohlfing develop quickly).
     
    There will be a mid-season update on the system as the 2013 year plays out and how the June draft affects everything.
  18. Shane Wahl

    My 25-man roster

    By Shane Wahl,

    Here it goes:
     
    Hicks, CF
    Mauer, C
    Willingham, LF
    Morneau, 1B
    Doumit, DH
    Plouffe, 3B
    Parmelee, RF
    Dozier, 2B
    Florimon, SS
     
    Bench: Carroll, Escobar, Boggs, Ramirez/Colabello
     
    Note: I don't care about Dozier and Florimon at the bottom (Carroll will fill in), I like a Hicks-Mauer-Willingham first inning a great deal.
     
    Worley
    Pelfrey
    Hendriks
    Correia
    DeVries
     
    (Diamond DL)
     
    Pressley
    Slama
    Robertson
    Fien
    Duensing
    Burton
    Perkins
     
    (Swarzak DL, Guerra DL)
     
    I like this rotation with Diamond sliding in for DeVries, but with DeVries and Deduno knocking at the door.
     
    I like this bullpen with Watts, Pugh, Albers, and eventually Oliveros and Guerra waiting.
  19. Shane Wahl
    This concludes my 1-60 prospect list in depth. I hope it is helpful for everyone to get a grasp of the depth of the system and to help in formulating one's own top 20 or 30 prospects lists.
     
    Note: yes, neither Randy Rosario nor Anthony Slama appear in this top 60, and for entirely different reasons. Rosario needs to have a good 2013, and Slama appears to be done in the system, or it doesn't even matter to include him anywhere.
     
    Also, note: I am going to analyze the prospect movement trends from 2012 to 2013 in an upcoming blog. It will not be as cumbersome as the 2011 to 2012 version. I think it will be fairly illuminating, so stay tuned.
     
     
     
    5. Alex Meyer (DOB: 1-3-90), RH starter: Meyer was the return that the Nationals sent over for Denard Span. Meyer is 6’ 9” and throws in the mid-upper 90s with a fantastic slider. He was the 23rd overall pick in the 2011 draft. He pitched 129 innings last year between low and high-A ball. After the promotion, he compiled a 2.31 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 11 walks in 39 innings. His H/9 dropped minimally, but his walk rate dropped by a quarter, so that might make up for his K/9 drop in the move. Meyer is ranked as the 59th best prospect by Baseball America and 40th by MLB.com (after it ranked him 83rd going in to last season). Meyer was a beast in high school and the Red Sox drafted him in the 20th round in 2008, but he opted to go to Kentucky which increased his stock immensely. Meyer and Gibson really could give the 1-2 punch the Twins need going forward, but Meyer is going to take a bit of time still. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.
     
    4. Byron Buxton (DOB: 12-18-93), RH center fielder: The Twins took Buxton with the second pick in the 2012 draft because his tools are off the charts (speed, arm, defense) or great (average, power). He performed well in the Gulf Coast League even though he struck out a lot and did not hit for average. The key was that he found his power against some fresh-out-of-high-school pitching. He was promoted to Elizabethon and actually improved. The slugging dropped, but his average and OBP climbed and he ended with a combined .792 OPS in his first season of pro baseball as an 18-year-old. My placement at the fourth spot on this list is almost certainly as low as he is on any Twins prospect list. This is simply due to the three ahead of him and the fact that I want to see more plate appearances from Buxton. When Sano was signed, I thought of him in the 3rd spot back then. The Twins are going to be patient from here on out with him, but they very smartly broke character and are moving him up from the very low levels to the middle quickly. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: September 2015-September 2016.
     
    3. Oswaldo Arcia (DOB: 5-9-91), LH right fielder: Arcia is another player who the Twins have been smart about in pushing him through the system. He went ballistic in 2010 in Elizabethon, posting a 1.096 OPS. He followed that up with a combined .866 OPS in 2011 where he faced high-A pitching for almost ¾ of the season. In 2012, Arcia started out much better in Fort Myers than where he ended it in 2011 and had a great second half with New Britain. There he had a .328/.398/.557 (.955) slash with 20 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers in 299 plate appearances. Those numbers are obviously excellent and he should, in my view, serve as a example for how certain high prospects should be treated by the Twins. That is, players should be promoted in season instead of playing a whole season at one stop. This way players may be a bit over their heads like Arcia was in 2011 in Fort Myers, but they get the taste of the level and can dominate like Arcia did the next year. Arcia is comparable to Jason Kubel pre-injury, so that means that would project him out to be an actual outfielder with an impressive bat who can turn some singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Expected start: short time in New Britain first. ETA: September 2013-2014.
     
    2. Aaron Hicks (DOB: 10-2-89), SH center field: People started to scoff at my pre-2012 ranking of Hicks as my number two prospect. That’s fine, and certainly he would have dropped if he would not have been so good in 2012. His .844 OPS comes with MLB-ready defense in center field. That is something remarkable in itself, but both his power numbers and his stolen bases went up significantly in 2012. Hicks strikes out a lot, but he also walks a lot and that is something that isn’t going to go away since plate discipline doesn’t just disappear. It’s an advanced skill and that is one big reason (coupled with the defense) that made it impossible for me to move Hicks down the prospect list for the past three seasons. Hicks has been up and down, and some of that I blame on the Twins organization, but there is consistent improvement along the way. His bat is not fully ready, but with the trading of Span and Revere, the door was opened for Hicks to step in. And after all has been said and done, I think he will step in right out of the gates in 2013. Expected start: Minnesota. ETA: 2013, even if he doesn’t start out the season with the Twins.
     
    1. Miguel Sano (DOB: 5-11-93), RH third baseman: Sano has more than lived up to expectations
    heaped upon him as he made his move into professional baseball after a hellacious bunch of scrutiny coming out of the Dominican Republic. He has moved up national prospect lists at a consistent pace to where he is ranked 9th by Baseball America and 12th by MLB.com. The absolute power is there and the amount of walks he drew in 2012 was a major improvement over 2012. As he moves up, the walks might drop but that may mean he gets more pitches to annihilate, so I don’t anticipate any real drop in power numbers even while moving in the Florida State League. The question is going to be eventually about where he will end up playing defensively, but it is certainly the case that third base is his position for 2013. If he can improve there, it is a huge gain for the Twins. If he has to move elsewhere, it hardly matters. His arm is spectacular, but first base may end up being his position. He certainly is growing into the position and might be 6’ 6”, 260 when all is said and done. Think a slightly smaller Frank Thomas and you get the idea. And Sano is still very young with immense talent. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: September 2014, or June 2015.
  20. Shane Wahl
    This concludes my 1-60 prospect list in depth. I hope it is helpful for everyone to get a grasp of the depth of the system and to help in formulating one's own top 20 or 30 prospects lists.
     
    Note: yes, neither Randy Rosario nor Anthony Slama appear in this top 60, and for entirely different reasons. Rosario needs to have a good 2013, and Slama appears to be done in the system, or it doesn't even matter to include him anywhere.
     
    Also, note: I am going to analyze the prospect movement trends from 2012 to 2013 in an upcoming blog. It will not be as cumbersome as the 2011 to 2012 version. I think it will be fairly illuminating, so stay tuned.
     
     
     
    5. Alex Meyer (DOB: 1-3-90), RH starter: Meyer was the return that the Nationals sent over for Denard Span. Meyer is 6’ 9” and throws in the mid-upper 90s with a fantastic slider. He was the 23rd overall pick in the 2011 draft. He pitched 129 innings last year between low and high-A ball. After the promotion, he compiled a 2.31 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 11 walks in 39 innings. His H/9 dropped minimally, but his walk rate dropped by a quarter, so that might make up for his K/9 drop in the move. Meyer is ranked as the 59th best prospect by Baseball America and 40th by MLB.com (after it ranked him 83rd going in to last season). Meyer was a beast in high school and the Red Sox drafted him in the 20th round in 2008, but he opted to go to Kentucky which increased his stock immensely. Meyer and Gibson really could give the 1-2 punch the Twins need going forward, but Meyer is going to take a bit of time still. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.
     
    4. Byron Buxton (DOB: 12-18-93), RH center fielder: The Twins took Buxton with the second pick in the 2012 draft because his tools are off the charts (speed, arm, defense) or great (average, power). He performed well in the Gulf Coast League even though he struck out a lot and did not hit for average. The key was that he found his power against some fresh-out-of-high-school pitching. He was promoted to Elizabethon and actually improved. The slugging dropped, but his average and OBP climbed and he ended with a combined .792 OPS in his first season of pro baseball as an 18-year-old. My placement at the fourth spot on this list is almost certainly as low as he is on any Twins prospect list. This is simply due to the three ahead of him and the fact that I want to see more plate appearances from Buxton. When Sano was signed, I thought of him in the 3rd spot back then. The Twins are going to be patient from here on out with him, but they very smartly broke character and are moving him up from the very low levels to the middle quickly. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: September 2015-September 2016.
     
    3. Oswaldo Arcia (DOB: 5-9-91), LH right fielder: Arcia is another player who the Twins have been smart about in pushing him through the system. He went ballistic in 2010 in Elizabethon, posting a 1.096 OPS. He followed that up with a combined .866 OPS in 2011 where he faced high-A pitching for almost ¾ of the season. In 2012, Arcia started out much better in Fort Myers than where he ended it in 2011 and had a great second half with New Britain. There he had a .328/.398/.557 (.955) slash with 20 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers in 299 plate appearances. Those numbers are obviously excellent and he should, in my view, serve as a example for how certain high prospects should be treated by the Twins. That is, players should be promoted in season instead of playing a whole season at one stop. This way players may be a bit over their heads like Arcia was in 2011 in Fort Myers, but they get the taste of the level and can dominate like Arcia did the next year. Arcia is comparable to Jason Kubel pre-injury, so that means that would project him out to be an actual outfielder with an impressive bat who can turn some singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Expected start: short time in New Britain first. ETA: September 2013-2014.
     
    2. Aaron Hicks (DOB: 10-2-89), SH center field: People started to scoff at my pre-2012 ranking of Hicks as my number two prospect. That’s fine, and certainly he would have dropped if he would not have been so good in 2012. His .844 OPS comes with MLB-ready defense in center field. That is something remarkable in itself, but both his power numbers and his stolen bases went up significantly in 2012. Hicks strikes out a lot, but he also walks a lot and that is something that isn’t going to go away since plate discipline doesn’t just disappear. It’s an advanced skill and that is one big reason (coupled with the defense) that made it impossible for me to move Hicks down the prospect list for the past three seasons. Hicks has been up and down, and some of that I blame on the Twins organization, but there is consistent improvement along the way. His bat is not fully ready, but with the trading of Span and Revere, the door was opened for Hicks to step in. And after all has been said and done, I think he will step in right out of the gates in 2013. Expected start: Minnesota. ETA: 2013, even if he doesn’t start out the season with the Twins.
     
    1. Miguel Sano (DOB: 5-11-93), RH third baseman: Sano has more than lived up to expectations
    heaped upon him as he made his move into professional baseball after a hellacious bunch of scrutiny coming out of the Dominican Republic. He has moved up national prospect lists at a consistent pace to where he is ranked 9th by Baseball America and 12th by MLB.com. The absolute power is there and the amount of walks he drew in 2012 was a major improvement over 2012. As he moves up, the walks might drop but that may mean he gets more pitches to annihilate, so I don’t anticipate any real drop in power numbers even while moving in the Florida State League. The question is going to be eventually about where he will end up playing defensively, but it is certainly the case that third base is his position for 2013. If he can improve there, it is a huge gain for the Twins. If he has to move elsewhere, it hardly matters. His arm is spectacular, but first base may end up being his position. He certainly is growing into the position and might be 6’ 6”, 260 when all is said and done. Think a slightly smaller Frank Thomas and you get the idea. And Sano is still very young with immense talent. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: September 2014, or June 2015.
  21. Shane Wahl
    10. Trevor May (DOB: 9-23-89), RH starter: May came over with Vance Worley in the Ben Revere trade. That trade was a steal for the Twins. Not only did they get a competent middle of the rotation guy for 2013, but they got another for 2014 or 2015 in May. There has been some talk about May’s struggles in AA in 2012 and the potential move to the bullpen. I am not at all clear as to why such nonsense has been uttered. If one actually looks at the numbers, May in 2010 at A ball was dominant. He struck out 92 and walked 20 in 65 innings with a 2.91 ERA. After being promoted to A+ in Clearwater, he kept the K rate high but basically just gave up more homers and a lot more walks. In 2011, he spent the whole year in Clearwater and was quite successful with a 3.63 ERA in 151+ innings. He struck out 208 and walked 67 that year. In 2012, he was promoted to AA and went through a stat decline which should have been suspected. He posted a 4.87 ERA in 149+ innings. He still struck out 151, but walked 78 in that time. His problem was with hits given up and especially with homers given up. He generally looks like a guy who struggles somewhat a level and then with a repeat year dominates again. I am not sure why any “reliever” talk is really in play at this point. May looks like a solid middle rotation guy with mid-90s heat, a good curve, and a good changeup. May will be an interesting pitcher to watch in 2013 and should be advanced to Rochester at some point in order for a 2014 appearance with the Twins. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.
     
    9. Max Kepler (DOB: 2-10-93), LH outfielder: Kepler’s youth is a bit scary because 2012 may have been his coming out party in that we got the chance to see what the hype surrounding this German was about. His 2010 and 2011 seasons were OK and encouraging, but the return to Elizabethon in 2012 set the stage for a dominant season for the young outfielder. In 269 plate appearances he compiled 16 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers on the way to a .297/.387/.539 line. The walks stayed at roughly the same rate but the strikeouts dropped significantly. Kepler is an above average defender who can play all three outfield positions (though LF is the likely route for him). The increase in slugging is a remarkable improvement and indicates that Kepler may be developing all five tools into actual skills. And this all comes at a very early age. He has the potential to be an elite major league baseball player, but I temper my enthusiasm some until he has a full season under his belt. The Twins have been patient with him early on but it is very possible that he will force the issue in 2013 and could be promoted near the end of the season. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2015-2016.
     
    8. Kyle Gibson (DOB: 10-23-87), RH starter: Gibson came back from Tommy John surgery to have a chance to pitch during the season and then was sent to the Arizona Fall League where he pitched well. He was particularly dominant over his first three starts, giving up only one earned run in 13 innings pitched. He is supposedly on an innings limit of around 140 innings and since this team is not the 2012 Diamondbacks there is no reason to expand much beyond that. I personally would opt for the bulk of those innings to come with the Twins during the last 3/5 of the season, so that would mean Gibson starts either in extended spring training or in Rochester on an innings limit. I am not really sure why anyone would argue for starting Gibson in the Twins rotation in April and then have to shut him down by the beginning of September. It is certainly the case that Gibson has the potential to be a number one starter and I would think this to likely be the case starting in 2014. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: 2013.
     
    7. Jose Berrios (DOB: 5-27-94), RH starter/reliever: The 32nd pick in the 2012 draft was dominant in 30+ innings split between the GCL and the Appy leagues. He struck out 49 and walked only 4,with a WHIP of 0.62, which is preposterously low for an 18-year-old. Berrios would have been the top-rated pitcher in the Twins system if it weren’t for the acquisition of Alex Meyer in the Denard Span trade. Berrios is very young and it is important to temper expectations. That said, the numbers don’t lie. It will interesting to see innings limits as the Twins go forward developing Berrios. He throws mid-90s on a regular basis and his fastball moves. This year he will undoubtedly be working on his slider and changeup. It is hard to tell how fast he might move up the system. I would expect him to continue to see some time in the bullpen to keep the innings low, but he will be starting some as well. He will likely be in Cedar Rapids at some point during the season. Expected start: EST, then maybe to Elizabethon for a bit or straight to Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017.
     
    6. Eddie Rosario (DOB: 9-28-91), LH second baseman/center fielder: Rosario’s prospect status does depend on where he is to play in the field. As a second baseman he is a legitimate top prospect, but as an outfielder he might move to around 10-12. That said, even if Rosario merely reproduces 2012 numbers at Fort Myers in 2013 it will bode extremely well for him. His slugging dropped .180 points between 2011 and 2012, but both his batting average and on-base percentage barely moved. It is perhaps the case that his homerun power will only really be doubles power going forward, but as a second baseman that can be lived with pretty easily. The key is going to be getting acclimated to second base and he was more comfortable at the position later on in 2012. This year is vital for his development as an all-around potential strong regular. People may overlooking the fact that he still did hit 12 homers in 429 plate appearances, many of them after returning from injury. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.
  22. Shane Wahl
    Here is part two of my detailed prospect list. This is where it tends to get pretty cloudy with a lot of reliever types, but these names either were or would have been in the 25-35ish range in the Twins system 2-3 years ago. That is a good sign.
     
    50. Dakota Watts (DOB: 11-16-87), RH reliever: Watts bounced back from a rough 2011 to have a substantially better 2012 and remain on this list. He still walks to many batters and that is going to be the main issue going forward. His AA performance was good as he posted a 2.67 ERA in 33+ innings while striking out 27 and walking 16. He throws gas (mid to upper 90s), so the wildness is to be expected. The K rate has to stay where it is (or improve) or he is going to have trouble in the majors. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2013-2014.
    Watts pitching this winter:

     
    49. Chris Colabello (DOB: 10-24-83), RH 1B: It is hard to call a 29-year-old a prospect, but Colabello’s success in his first season in the Twins system was astounding, and includes a dominating winter performance in the Mexican League. In 228 plate appearances there, he has 17 homers and a 1.043 OPS. This coupled with his 2012 season at New Britain amounts to 790 plate appearances, 36 homers, 50 doubles, and around a .915 OPS for the entire year. His tremendous power is an enormous asset, but the clock is ticking. He is in his prime now and the Twins should take advantage of this. He is a 1B/DH type, but has experience at 3B and could serve in an emergency backup role there. I would love for Colabello to get the final bench spot on the 25-man roster, but that is unlikely. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: 2013-2014.
     
    48. Bruce Pugh (DOB: 7-18-88), RH reliever: Pugh was pretty dominant in 2012 after a bad 2011 season. In 42 innings at New Britain, he struck out 48, walked 23, and posted a 1.50 ERA. He throws hard and has an effective slider. His K rate has stayed the same the past two years so there hasn’t been a drop off there like with many other Twins prospects. Expected start: Rochester. ETA 2013.
     
    47. Zach Jones (DOB: 12-4-90), RH reliever: Jones threw 20 innings between Elizabethon and Beloit, striking out 34 and walking 11. He also gave up only 11 hits and one homer. He has a mid 90s fastball and a slider. He will likely remain a reliever, adding to a massive list of MR/SU/CL types in the Twins organization. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA 2015-2016.
     
    46. Josmil Pinto (DOB: 3-31-89), RH catcher: Pinto was OK in 2011 and I started paying attention to his progress at that point. He certainly did not disappoint in 2012. He spent most of his time in Fort Myers again, this time with a .295/.361/.473 (.834) line in 393 plate appearances. He added 22 doubles and 12 homers. He was promoted to New Britain and in 52 plate appearances had a .919 OPS and a couple homers. This performance warranted Pinto’s addition to the 40-man roster. He spent a fair amount of time as the DH, but this is not because of any defensive weakness, but rather the need to keep his bat in the lineup. Could form an interesting trio in the future with Mauer and Herrmann. Expected start: New Britain. ETA 2014-2015.
     
    45. Lester Oliveros (DOB: 5-28-88), RH reliever: Oliveros was dominant at New Britain before being promoted to Rochester. There he struck out 35 batters in 29+ innings and walked only 8. He then injured his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of August. With minimal time in the big leagues, it is too early to rely on his major league stats to project his value. He will clearly be starting on the DL in 2013 but should be ready around mid-season. Expected start: Rochester DL. ETR (return): 2014.
     
    44. J.D. Williams (DOB: 11-20-90), SH outfielder: Williams was excellent in 2011 at Elizabethon and fell dramatically in 2012 after moving up to Beloit. His OPS fell 220 points to .651 and he struck out an alarming 115 times in 407 plate appearances. He is a speedy outfielder who can cover a lot of ground in all three outfield positions. Both at the top of the system and toward the bottom, the outfield is crowded. With Max Kepler, Byron Buxton, Adam Walker, and others looking toward A ball this year, it isn’t clear if Williams will be at Cedar Rapids or pushed forward out of the need for playing time. Expected start: Cedar Rapids (if Buxton doesn’t start there), Fort Myers (if Buxton starts at Cedar Rapids). ETA: never or 2016-2017.
     
    43. Corey Williams (DOB: 7-4-90), LH reliever: Williams was solid in his first full year of professional baseball. He posted a 3.47 ERA in 62+ innings while fanning 68 and walking 33. The high walk total accounted for a high WHIP (1.412) and the higher ERA. He has a solid low to mid 90s fastball, changeup, cutter, and slider, which may lead to a conversion to the rotation at some point. He is likely to move quickly as a talented lefty with 3-4 pitches. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.
     
    42. A.J. Achter (DOB: 8-27-88), RH reliever: Achter totally dominated low A and high A ball in 2012, ending with a 0.79 ERA in 34+ innings at Fort Myers. There he struck out 37 and walked only 3, giving up no homers. The move to the bullpen was enormously helpful for him and she should rise up this list and the system quickly, which is pretty good for someone drafted in the 46th round in 2010. He is a bit of a late bloomer, so this season will be crucial for him. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.
     
    41. Ryan Pressly (DOB: 12-15-88), RH starter/reliever: Pressly was selected by the Twins in the Rule 5 draft from Boston. He struggled some in 2010 and 2011, started out struggling in 2012 in high A ball, but did improve after being promoted to AA. The hard-thrower struck out 21 in 27+ innings while walking 10. This is certainly a reach, but I would rather the Twins give Pressly a long relief spot and trade away Anthony Swarzak in some package for a low level pitcher with a modicum of upside. Swarzak’s time is done and Pressly is a younger option who still has room for development. Expected start: either sent back to Boston or sent to the minors after the Twins work out a trade. ETA: never or 2014-2015.
  23. Shane Wahl
    This is the sixth part of my detailed prospect list. These five are impressive in various ways with power, plate discipline, and speed that makes the Twins offensive prowess in the system start to seem pretty impressive before even cracking the top 10.
     
    15. Adam Walker (DOB: 10-18-91), RH right fielder: Walker’s .250/.310/.496 line at Elizabethon is impressive, but it doesn’t overwhelm. However, he hit 14 homers, 7 doubles, and 4 triples in 254 plate appearances, continues to work hard on his defense and to lower his strikeout numbers, and is the right-handed power bat that the Twins have been sorely lacking. Coupled with Sano and Vargas, the Twins have three big bats in the system. Walker is a player to be a little patient with as he needs to work on his strikeout rate, but he still should move pretty quickly. The big outfielder was a fantastic slugger in college and didn’t drop off much in his first partial season of pro ball. I expect the power numbers to jump now that he has had increased instruction and pro ball experience under his belt. Expected start: Cedar Rapids, though he could be a potential quick jump to Fort Myers since the OF in Cedar Rapids is going to be crowded. ETA: 2015-2016.
     
     
    14. Nate Roberts (DOB: 2-25-89), LH corner outfielder: Roberts has dealt with some injuries and an extremely cautious approach by the Twins in promoting him. That is until the 2012 Arizona Fall League. Roberts was great in limited time in 2010 (.336/.444/.547). In 2011 he was promoted to Beloit and posted an .889 OPS in 283 plate appearances while battling injury. In 2012 he returned to Beloit for some reason and continued to put up impressive numbers (.299/.433/.427), stealing 27 bases, walking (44) more than striking out (37) and continued his bizarre ability to get hit by pitches (23). Roberts was then sent to the Arizona Fall League, which is comprised mostly of good-very good prospects at AA and AAA. Roberts put up a 1.226 OPS in 77 plate appearances, homering three times, and swiping six bags. This dominant performance has many wondering if Roberts is a likely candidate to skip Fort Myers for New Britain to start 2013. I don’t like the idea of players skipping levels as I would rather see consistent progression from level to level. The Twins were bizarre with Roberts, however, so he may be an exception. I would probably start him for a bit at Fort Myers and then promote him to New Britain automatically a few months into the season. I think the Twins will be aggressive, though. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.
     
    13. Chris Herrmann (DOB: 11-24-87), LH catcher/left fielder: Herrmann was impressive in 2011 at New Britain where he showed great plate discipline, slugged OK, stole some places and played solid defense behind the plate and in the OF. In 2012, the Twins stuck with him at AA where he had a slight decline in production, especially early in the season when he was batting lower in the lineup and appeared to be trying to increase his power numbers. This didn’t work very well and New Britain eventually wised up and put Hicks and Herrmann at the top of the lineup with Oswaldo Arcia batting behind them. This was a good decision and Herrmann increased his production in the second half. I do think that the Twins have been rather bizarre in holding Herrmann back at AA for almost 1000 plate appearances while posting a .754 OPS. The team did not call him up to big leagues until the middle September after his AA season had been over for several days. It is a shame that terrible offensive players like Drew Butera and Rene Rivera are slowing down the development of Twins prospects and other minor league catchers who deserve more of a chance. Herrmann is not going to be an all-star and will certainly not be a regular with the Twins barring injury to Mauer or Doumit, but time is near when he can be a useful upgrade over Drew Butera and his versatility in LF (potentially RF as well) makes him a nice roster addition sooner rather than later. Expected start: Rochester. ETR (return): 2013.
     
    12. Travis Harrison (DOB: 10-17-92), RH 3B: The Twins drafted Harrison with the 50th pick in the 2011 draft. Harrison’s bat is, without doubt, one of the best pure hitters in the organization and he demonstrated this with a big season for Elizabethon in 2012 as a 19-year-old. In 253 plate appearances, he had 12 doubles, 4 triples, and 5 homers. He walked 24 times and struck out 51 times on his way to a .301/.383/.461 batting line. Harrison’s defense at third base was not good, but there is a chance he will improve (as even Miguel Sano has some). It is likely, though, that first base and DH are in his future down the road. I would not be surprised if Harrison is someone—if he indeed cannot stick at 3B—who the Twins will look to trade in a hitting-for-pitching prospect deal. I would not expect that in 2013, however, and it will be interesting to see how Harrison adapts to a full season of baseball. Expected start: Cedar Rapid. ETA: 2016-2017.
     
     
    11. Joe Benson (DOB: 3-5-88), RH outfielder: Benson was a top five prospect in 2011 and going into 2012. The 2012 season was a disaster for the talented outfielder, however. Benson had been moving through the system with Chris Parmelee and even came up with Parmelee to the Twins in September 2011. People tend to exaggerate Benson’s struggles in September of that year (as though 70+ plate appearances are telling at all in the first place). One could not expect the .883 AA OPS to immediate translate. Benson seems to have been injured for all of 2012, but often played through injury. He struggled mightily in AAA and instead of doing the right thing and making him stick it out at AAA, the Twins actually sent him back to AA in a terrible move. Benson still is a great defender and will just have to calm down and channel his energy and emotions into being a productive player in the very near future. It is a complete mistake to write Benson off as he is only just turning 25 this coming March and the talent is still there. Benson would still be a top 8 prospect if it weren’t for the 2012 offseason trades, and the performances of Max Kepler and Jose Berrios in 2012. Expected start: Rochester. ETR (return): Benson will be back at some point in 2013 and it could be sooner than later if Aaron Hicks is not ready by mid-season. The Twins could finish 2013 with both Hicks and Benson in the outfield, and I would welcome that scenario.
  24. Shane Wahl
    The fifth installment is comprised of 5 high upside guys who could all be very good major leaguers. I guarantee that at least one of them will be very good, another will be good, and the other three will all make it to contribute in a real way (or be used in a trade).
     
    20. Matt Hauser (DOB: 3-30-88), RH reliever/starter: Hauser has a mid 90s fastball, a sinker, a slider, and a changeup. He was great at Fort Myers in relief then started some games successfully and moved up to New Britain where he went to the bullpen again. His strikeout rate dropped in AA down to 4.5, but that was only 16 innings of work. I would expect Hauser to see some time starting again this year and I would think if he gets his strikeout rate back up over 7, it would be wise to keep him starting. Otherwise he may be a dominant pitcher out of the bullpen and would add to the great depth the Twins have there in the organization. If the walks fall even a bit, it will mean that Hauser’s ERA should stay low even if he gets hit a bit more (only 78 hits in 88 innings in 2012—and only 5 of those were homers). He may be challenging Alex Burnett soon in his middle relief role, but also could make Jared Burton expendable in 2014. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.
     
    19. Hudson Boyd (DOB: 10-18-92), RH starter: Boyd throws in the upper 90s and came into the system with good control. He has fallen on this list both because of additions at the top and because his 2012 performance was underwhelming. In 58 innings at Elizabethon, he maintained a low ERA (2.95), but struck out only 36, walked 23, and hit 5 batters. The strikeout numbers are alarming for a pitcher of his skill at Elizabethon. He is still very young, though, and the talent is there. It is possible to see him move to the bullpen at some point and that could mean a fast ascent in the system, possibly as a future closer. As a starter, he would still probably be limited to under 100 innings in 2013. He probably will get another crack at starting, but he might be in the bullpen by season’s end. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2015-2016 as reliever, 2016-2017 as starter.
     
    18. Adrian Salcedo (DOB: 2-5-91), RH starter: Salcedo was fantastic through 2010 and was in the top ten of most prospect lists at that time. 2011 was a letdown, but he was still could in his first full season (135 IP, 92 strikeouts, 27 walks). 2012 brought a comebacker and a broken nose. He was limited to 30+ innings between Fort Myers and a rehab stint in the GCL. 2012 was a lost season for Salcedo like it was for Stuifbergen, Wimmer, and Soliman. His strikeout rate is dropping but another year at Fort Myers might mean an increase there. He has a low 90s fastball, a slider, and a changeup. He is still very young and was so impressive early in his professional career, so there is no reason to exaggerate the results of 2011 and 2012 at the moment. 2013 is a big year for Salcedo and he is near the top of my list of guys to watch this seaon. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.
     
    17. Niko Goodrum (DOB: 2-28-92), SH shortstop: The 2010 second round pick has been moved a bit slow early on in his professional career, but it may all be worth it if Goodrum can stick at SS or move to 3B as the next best option. He improved in 2012 in Elizabethon over his 2011 numbers there, especially with regard to plate discipline. 2011 stats: 230 plate appearances, 21 walks, 56 strikeouts, .735 OPS. 2012 stats: 269 plate appearances, 38 walks, 56 strikeouts, .768 OPS. Perhaps most importantly, his defense at short improved enough to warrant the vast majority of his time spent there during the season. If SS doesn’t work out, 3B should for the big switch-hitter. He is an overlooked but important piece to the Twins future as there is no clear total package at SS or 3B in the system right now. Goodrum represents that possibility and it hopefully 2013 is a big step forward for him. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017.
     
    16. Kennys Vargas (DOB: 8-1-90), SH 1B: Vargas served his suspension (did his time) and still managed 11 homers in 186 plate appearances at Beloit. Vargas was a legitimate power prospect going into 2012, but now he is at the top of the department with Sano. A 1.030 OPS at Beloit is nothing to scoff at and he is simply not striking out at a rate that should worry anyone at all. His .318/.419/.610 slash is phenomenal at that level. A real full season this year is going to be interesting. He is the most interesting prospect to watch in my opinion because he could rise into the top 10 easily if his success continues at Fort Myers. Vargas is interesting because he would give the Twins two huge power bats in the future with Sano being the other. That makes this seem a little more like the early 80s which should inspire and create some hope for the 2015 and on Twins. If the Twins find themselves in 2015 deciding between Vargas and Sano for 1B and DH, then things are quite good. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.
  25. Shane Wahl
    In the fourth installment, things start to get quite interesting with some strong upside talents and some almost tragic time-is-of-the-essence prospects in limbo.
     
    30. Mason Melotakis (DOB: 6-28-91), LH reliever: Melotakis was moved quickly from Elizabethon to Beloit last year and didn’t miss a beat. The hard-throwing lefty (mid 90s fastball) also has a great power slider. In 17+ innings at Beloit last year he gave up only 4 earned runs, struck out 24 and walked 4. He could fly up this list and also move quickly in the Twins system. I hope the Twins push him this year immediately up instead of a return to low-A ball. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.
     
    29. Tom Stuifbergen (DOB: 9-26-88), RH starter: Stuifbergen suffered through a strange shoulder injury that limited him to 74+ innings and hampered his strikeout total dramatically (39). Bouncing back this year after the disastrous 2012 is certainly possible and he is running out of time. If things had gone well last year, he could have been a contender for a rotation spot with the Twins at some point this year. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: never or 2014-2015.
     
    28. Jorge Polanco (DOB: 7-5-93), SH middle infielder: Polanco generated a decent amount of attention before even playing in the Twins organization and then fell off the radar some after the 2010 and 2011 seasons. His defensive ability at shortstop was heavily sought after by the Twins, though he struggled at the position in 2012 and spent most of his time over at second base. The offensive production, however, went off the charts with a 235 OPS point jump between GCL 2011 and Elizabethon 2012. And he is still 19. Polanco demonstrated some power in 2012, especially with 15 doubles in just 204 plate appearances. He doesn’t walk much, but he also doesn’t strike out much. He is definitely going to be one of my top 10 players to watch in 2013 in the system. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017.
     
    27. Jason Wheeler (DOB: 10-27-90), LH starter: Wheeler was a consistent presence for the Beloit rotation, throwing 156+ innings with a 3.45 ERA. His 6.6/2.5 per nine K/BB rate doesn’t overwhelm, but he looks like a younger (and taller) version of Scott Diamond right now. I would expect a steady increase in workload and movement up the system for him. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.
     
    26. Dereck Rodriguez (DOB: 6-5-92), RH outfielder: I remain high on Rodriguez even though the Twins are moving slow with him. He doesn’t have a single plate appearance beyond the GCL, where he posted a .783 OPS in 2012. It would seem that the outfield log jam at the bottom of the system and Dereck’s plate discipline kept him in the GCL after 2011. He did improve some in that regard, but still does strike out a lot. Expected start: EST and Elizabethon with possible promotion to Beloit mid-season. ETA: 2016-2017.
     
    25. Levi Michael (DOB: 2-9-91), SH middle infielder: 2011’s first round pick did not have a good 2012 season, but to write him off at this point would be very silly. His numbers for his first season of pro ball at a level a bit over his head are decent enough and .093 isolated discipline shows a skill that won’t go away. He should hit better (and for more power) and the real question comes down to where he will play. He played a bit more at second base in 2012, but should probably get the majority of the duties at short in Fort Myer if Danny Santana moves to New Britain. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.
     
    24. Alex Wimmers (DOB: 12-1-88), RH starter: Like Stuifbergen, Wimmers has run into terrible luck which has significantly delayed his progress. This was a guy who some thought could actually arrive in 2011 for the Twins by the end of that season, but then weird control issues ended that and 2012 brought Tommy John. The Twins let Wimmers delay surgery and the injury only got worse, so what was an early season issue became an early August surgery. He should be working his way back into the New Britain rotation for the last 2/5 of the season. Expected start: New Britain DL. ETA: never or 2014-2015.
     
    23. B.J. Hermsen (DOB: 12-1-89), RH starter: In 139+ innings in 2012, Hermsen struck out 75 batters and walked 25. He kept his ERA to 3.22 which is in line with his career 3.21 ERA in his career. The strikeouts are dwindling, however, and this is cause for concern as he goes forward. His sinker is good and he can induce ground balls. He is another guy to really follow this year as continued success after moving to AAA should relieve at least some of the doubts I have about his ability to pitch in the majors. He will get there though and there is no reason to keep him back at New Britain. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: a big range from Sept. 2013 to Sept. 2015.
     
    22. Danny Santana (DOB: 11-7-90), SH middle infielder: It’s a good sign to see someone move up a level and then add 68 points to his OPS. It’s even better when this is a middle infielder. Santana has a good glove, great speed, and surprising pop. His 21 doubles, 8 triples, and 9 homers in 547 plate appearances in the Florida State League are very impressive. He doesn’t walk much at all, but he cut the strikeouts down a lot in 2012 while raising his batting average 39 points. He is another guy to watch in 2013 and it will be interesting to see how middle infield time might be divided in New Britain between he and Beresford, assuming the Twins don’t make the mistake of keeping him in Fort Myers. If Santana can maintain this offensive production and fine-tune his defense, he is a promising middle infielder for the Twins soon. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015.
     
    21. Josh Burris (DOB: 11-28-91), RH reliever: Burris pitched 36 innings for Elizabethon, striking out 40 and walking 21. This control issue is not strange for Burris, but that is actually an improvement from his 2011 college numbers. He can hit the mid 90s and has a good curveball. It will be interesting to see whether or not the Twins will be converting his talents and stuff towards being a starting pitcher. I would think that they might experiment some with that later in the season, but certainly have to start increasing his innings load. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2015-2016 as reliever, 2016-2017 as starter.
×
×
  • Create New...