Top 30 Twins Pitching Prospects
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It is time to re-evaluate the top pitching prospects in the Twins system. Trevor May graduated, and the 2015 draft brought in three fresh pitchers to this list.
1. Jose Berrios (1): RHS, 5-27-94
2015 status: Strong improvement over 2014 AA numbers. Promoted to AAA. ETA: essentially MLB ready now.
2. Tyler Jay (NR): LHR, 4-19-94
2015 status: Sent to Fort Myers to the bullpen, likely for the remainder of 2015. Starting ability in question. ETA: 2017
3. Stephen Gonsalves (5): LHS, 7-8-94
2015 status: Totally dominated A ball, hitting a learning curve in A+ ball, but it should only be a matter of time. Perhaps A+/AA split in 2016. ETA: 2018
4. Alex Meyer (2): RHS, 1-3-90
2015 status: Struggled in AAA as a starter, converted to reliever temporarily, promoted to Twins as such, optioned back to AAA. Maybe he works on a few things and is back relieving for a playoff Twins team. Otherwise, they have to move him back to try starting one more time. ETA: should be back in 2015.
5. Taylor Rogers (9): LHS, 12-17-90
2015 status: Strong AAA time, replicating his AA numbers from 2014. I would like to see a playoff push involving Rogers as a lights out LOOGY. ETA: 2015 as a reliever, 2016 as a starter.
6. Chih-Wei Hu (15): RHS, 11-4-93
2015 status: Hu has finally given up some home runs, but that is about all that has changed from his excellent production in 2013 and 2014. He is an 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 kind of guy. It will be interesting to see how they manage his innings for the rest of the season, since I doubt that he is going to be top 110 innings or so and he is at 66.2 right now. ETA: 2017.
7. Kohl Stewart (3): RHS, 10-7-94
2015 status: A mediocre strikeout rate has actually fallen sharply in 2015. There is a lot of hand-waving about it as though it doesn't matter, but I think some caution is warranted here. Clearly, Stewart will be in Fort Myers again in 2016. ETA: 2018.
8. Tyler Duffey (10): RHS, 12-27-90
2015 status: Like Hu, Duffey is producing at his current level with very similar numbers as his overall minor league career numbers, and that is telling. He has been excellent this year, and I almost placed him ahead of Stewart. ETA: 2016.
9. Lewis Thorpe (7): LHS, 11-23-95
2015 status: The Twins and Thorpe decided to not have Tommy John surgery last September and this amounted to long delay of the inevitable,as Thorpe's April surgery will mean that he is out until at least mid-season 2016. He will only be about 20 and a half when he returns in 2016 (I would assume GCL/Fort Myers) so his status is still top-10 worthy. ETA: 2019 with level/year development.
10. Brandon Peterson (13): RHR, 9-23-91
2015 status: Peterson did not get the attention that Nick Burdi and Jake Reed did after last season. Then the Twins kept him down in Fort Myers for some inexplicable reason. Now, he is up in Chattanooga and he has not missed a beat at all. The 13 K/9 coupled with an acceptable 3.3 BB/9 makes him an elite reliever prospect. ETA: 2016.
11. Zach Jones (12): RHR, 12-4-90
2015 status: Jones was dominant until his last two appearances and is now on the DL. When he gets healthy, the Twins should consider promoting him to AAA. ETA: 2015 or 2016.
12. Nick Burdi (4): RHR, 1-19-93
2015 status: Things started poorly, got significantly better for a little bit, then went so poorly that the Twins actually just demoted Burdi back to Fort Myers, in a move that is rather perplexing, even with his bad performance. His mechanics have been altered significantly, and this might be the problem. ETA: 2017.
13. Jake Reed (8): RHR, 9-29-92
2015 status: Like Burdi, the stock is falling here for Jake Reed. He has struggled in AA and should remain there well into next season. ETA: 2016 only if all goes well.
14. Kyle Cody (NR): RHS, 8-9-95
2015 status: Still unsigned, for whatever reason. I am personally not very enthused with this draft pick. ETA: 2019
15. Felix Jorge (20): RHS, 1-2-94
2015 status: He's back and pitching very well. The strikeout rate has dropped, but so has the walk rate. He is also not giving up very many hits. I think he likely moves to A+ when the Twins move Hu to AA. ETA: 2018.
16. JT Chargois (HM): RHR, 12-3-90
2015 status: Chargois is back after not pitching in 2013 or 2014. He is doing very well, though his control is an issue. It was rather shocking how he dominated A+ ball though, and he is up to AA. ETA: 2016 if he remains healthy.
17. Alex Robinson (NR): LHR, 8-11-94
2015 status: After being drafted in the fifth round, he headed off to the Elizabethon bullpen. ETA: 2019.
18. Michael Cederoth (11): RHP, 11-25-92
2015 status: He has struggled a bit in A ball this year, walking a lot of guys as a starter. He moved to the bullpen and has been excellent. I imagine he stays there. ETA: 2018.
19. Mat Batts (HM): LHS, 7-6-91
2015 status: After a very strong start to the 2015 season in Cedar Rapids, Batts was promoted to Fort Myers where he continues to be fantastic. ETA: 2018.
20. Cameron Booser (24): LHR, 5-4-92
2015 status: Strong for Cedar Rapids, but he is walking an awful lot of guys. He strikes out a ton too, though. ETA: 2018.
21. Trevor Hildenberger (NR): RHR, 12-15-90
2015 status: Hildenberger has been out of control dominant for Cedar Rapids. It isn't clear why he is not in Fort Myers by now. ETA: 2017, if the Twins are at all serious about him.
22. Aaron Slegers (HM): RHS, 9-4-92
2015 status: Slegers is a solid starting pitching prospect who might continue to climb the prospect rankings, but shouldn't fall far. Very good K/BB rate. ETA: 2018.
23. John Curtiss (14): RHS, 4-5-93
2015 status: I was too high on Curtiss going into the season. He has been hit pretty hard in A ball this year. The strikeouts are still there, but it is going to be a slow ascent in the system. ETA: 2019.
24. Alexis Tapia (NR): RHS, 8-10-95
2015 status: Very young, but with good strikeout and walk numbers. Could climb fast. ETA 2019.
25. Alex Wimmers (NR): RHS, 11-1-88
2015 status: It is fantastic that Wimmers has gotten back into the swing of things. That he is starting again and striking people out is a testament to his perseverance. ETA: 2016 if the Twins are aggressive.
26. Randy Rosario (22): LHS, 5-18-94
2015 status: Hopefully, a healthy Rosario can get on track and return to showing the promise of his pre-2014 career. ETA: 2019.
27. Todd Van Steensel (HM): RHR, 1-14-91
2015 status: Van Steensel is a strikeout machine for Fort Myers. Undoubtedly, he will finish the year in AA if some of the pitchers in AA and AAA get promotions. ETA: 2016.
28. Ryan O'Rourke (25): LHR, 4-30-88
2015 status: O'Rourke has just been promoted to the Twins. He has been hit hard by right-handed hitters this year again, but the strikeout numbers against lefties are astounding. He could make it as a dominant LOOGY. A Twins playoff bullpen with Rogers and O'Rourke would negate left-handed hitters in the late innings. ETA: right now.
29. Luke Bard (NR): RHR, 11-13-90
2015 status: Bard is back healthy and looks to get his career on track. I am placing him above some honorable mentions here because he was the 42nd pick in the 2012 draft. ETA: 2017 if he stays healthy and the Twins are aggressive with him in 2016.
30. DJ Baxendale (NR), RHS, 12-8-90
2015 status: Shows what I know. I thought Baxendale was a slightly better version of BJ Hermsen after his bad 2014 in AA. He returned there and has been solid. He just needs to stay healthy and fine-tune things and he could be another starting option in 2016. ETA: 2016.
Honorable Mentions: Yorman Landa, Ryan Eades, Kuo-Hua Lo, Mason Melotakis, Corey Williams, Alex Muren, Fernando Romero, Jason Wheeler, Brett Lee, Adrian Salcedo, Tim Shibuya, Matt Summers
This is an extensive list, ending with a lot of "C" prospects who could still develop and move up this list. I tend to value progress up into the higher levels of the minors a bit more than ceiling, until high-ceiling pitchers actually get to A+ ball and succeed.
Breaking this down by ETA:
2015: 1. Berrios. 4. Meyer. 5. Rogers. 11. Jones. 28. O'Rourke. (3 SP, 2 RP)
2016: 8. Duffey. 10. Peterson. 13. Reed. 16. Chargois. 25. Wimmers. 27. Van Steensel. 30. Baxendale. (3 SP, 4 RP)
2017: 2. Jay. 6. Hu. 12. Burdi. 21. Hildenberger. 29. Bard. (2 SP, 3 RP)
2018: 3. Gonsalves. 7. Stewart. 15. Jorge. 18. Cederoth. 19. Batts. 20. Booser. 22. Slegers. (5 SP, 2 RP)
2019: 9. Thorpe. 14. Cody. 17. Robinson. 23. Curtiss. 24. Tapia. 26. Rosario. (4 SP, 2 RP)
Not all thirty (42) are going to actually arrive in the show, but each one of these guys could realize his potential and get there someday, with some team. There is also adequate depth, clearly, to trade from as the Twins become serious contenders in 2016 and beyond.


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